monday, july 24th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. it's monday and we are ready to go if you check things out at this hour, you're seeing green across the board. dow futures indicated up by 60 points that comes after ten days in a row of gains for the dow that's the longest winning streak since august of 2017. s&p futures up by about 10 this morning. the nasdaq up by 37 and the treasury market right now if you want to check out yields, right now it looks like the 10 year is slightly lower on the yield at

3.831% the big fed meeting coming this week it's anticipated the pause is off. one rate hike perhaps and then we'll see. >> i think yields should be rising just because of what's going on in america. >> because it's going to -- >> well, the fwakt it's showing a tough landing. >> and the market's not concerned? >> no. >> yeah. and the fed, not to say that it's the inverse of the put where they're nervous about the stock market going up but, you know, i'm sure it's one of the things they look at. >> yeah. >> that's what we were saying last week. market goes up, they're going to say, okay -- >> but ten straight days i'm not talking about the fed. the yields have not cooperated they still aren't. 3.8 and 4.8. they should be much higher than that >> yields make it look like they're going to reverse and lower rates at some point. >> i know.

>> the stock market doesn't say that because if they're having to cut rates, it's going to be because there's something else going on. >> the nasdaq's taking a little bit of a breather. the dow certainly isn't as broad as real market technicians would like to have it. you can't deny it. only two points on friday. like someone -- >> barely. >> meanwhile, let's talk twitter because it's no longer that. twitter rebranding to x. that's the new name. overnight the ceo tweeting x is here let's do this. over the weekend she tweeted an explanation calling x the future state of unlimited interactivity centered in audio, video, messaging, payments and banking. she noted it will be powered by ai elon musk said soon we shall bid adieu to the twitter brand and gradually all of the birds you're looking right there at a

shot of twitter's headquarters with the x superimposed in a bruce wayne style way. >> linda has to come up with the reason for why all of this elon does things because they think they make sense and linda has to explain it to everybody else >> if you thought meta made any sense at all, then this does make a lot of ense. >> did you think meta made any sense? >> no, i didn't. if it's going to do -- it's five or six things. that's more than obnoxious tweets. >> it's like google becoming alphabet >> maybe. >> to go back and walter isaacson was tweeting about this over the weekend this was his original dream -- >> from paypal. >> before paypal this is what he wantedpaypal t be this is very much what we talked about a lot of what they called the super apps in china and elsewhere do. >> that makes sense to me.

are we xing instead of tweeting. >> everybody's on twitter, the same thing were they there rearead reading -- threading. >> we're still googling, we're 23409 not alphabeting. >> meta kept the subbrands. >> this is twitter -- >> i don't know. is twitter gone? it says twitter. >> if it was just doing what we do with twitter, the little bird is cool. i liked it. >> i do, too >> that's kind of -- it's frivolous. if it's going to become such a big part of our life in so many different ways, i can see how -- i guess. shares of amc entertainment are soaring. couple of things judge on friday blocked a proposed settlement and issued a group of investors sued over the company's plan to convert the eight preferred units to common stock. the judge rejected the

settlement agreement between the company and investors because it would settle potential claims by preferred shareholders who are not represented in the lawsuit filed a new version of the settlement in the court. the barbenheimer performance, across the board even though mission impossible is a little bit disappointing, there are people back at the theaters. this was the biggest weekend we've had in a while i saw "oppenheimer." >> i'm supposed to see it tonight, assuming a baby-sitter works out. >> he's a genius and i can't believe someone wrote this script the flashes and the sounds in the theater of just the shocking things that -- i'm not going to give anything away because there's nothing to give away it's like a documentary that all of this stuff happened, but it's -- you know, certain times you can almost feel like -- and they warn you against certain

movies where there's almost too much sensory stimulation >> did you see it in imax? >> no. >> i'm going to see it in imax. >> but i did see it late at night. it ended at 12:30 and i had gotten up at 6 there may have been times when it was jarring me out of -- what was i saying >> jarring you -- >> out of a slumber because it was so late at night so i'm like minding my own business sort of relaxing and be stuff happens and it's a little bit unsettling i mean, i didn't sleep through all -- maybe 1/10 of it. do you ever fall asleep. >> in the movie? i try not to. >> i tried not to. >> i was up at 6 and out in the hot sunday for hours the dialogue, it's just -- it's a dialogue movie that's basically what it's about. think about --

>> don't tell me how it ends. >> no. >> think about being the person who figured out how to do that and what it was used for and all the arguments -- >> then watching it spin out of your control >> then all the arguments that, you know, it saved -- it's everything that you can imagine that we've talked about for those two events, hiroshima and nagasaki well done. he's a genius. >> yeah. all right. chevron says the cfo will retire next year. it named a long-time company veteran as his successor she's been with the company for more than 24 years separately the company says that it waived the mandatory retirement age requirement of 65 for its ceo mike wirth wirth who is about to turn 63 told cnbc that there's more that he wants to do in his role and be the boards decision provides what he calls a little more runway he says it gives him time to

continue to develop strong executives kind of hard to think of 65 retirement age still being there for a company like chevron yeah chevron also reported preliminary second quarter earnings that beat estimates but were down 40% year over year because of lower commodity prices remember a year ago you were looking at the oil spike after, you know, the war in ukraine, after russia moved in there. full results for the company though will be released on friday you can see the stock up by about 50 cents ceo mike wirth is goings to be on "squawk on the street." that's an exclusive interview coming up at 9:30 a.m. american airlines raising its offer for a new pilot contract for more than $1 billion. that's going to match a preliminary deal the contract would bring the four-year offer value to around $9 billion they think the present leadership will see whether the offer is worthy of its membership. a lot more coming up on

squawk this week busy week for earnings, economic data former fed vice chair roger ferguson is going to tell us what he can expect from the central bank next. later former u.n. ambassador nikki haley will join us on her platform as presidential candidate. you're watching us on cnbc what if buildings could tell you how they could be more efficient? i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

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you welcome back to "squawk. s&p 500 set to report. here's what's on deck, microsoft, alphabet, meta, boeing, coca-cola, mcdonald's, our own parent company comcast we get our first read on gdp in the second quarter on thursday let's get a trifecta of central bank decisions with the federal reserve and the ecb and bank of japan. roger ferguson, former fed vice chairman and cnbc contributor. somebody who i've said this before has gotten this right more than anybody we've had on this broadcast about what the fed will do. question is what will they do next

there's one more rate cut -- >> hike. >> rate hike. >> you said cut. >> did i say cut oh, hike. >> we knew what you meant. >> thank you roger, so the big question is whether you think with this market meltup or whatever you think is happening it actually makes it more likely that we get a rate hike, not a rate cut. my apologies. >> certainly the first rate hike is certainly baked in. i think there are a number of factors that might encourage that second rate hike. first you've already mentioned that as a possibility. secondly, as you point out, the economy is continuing to do very well fortunately give them room for one more move if that's what the data call for. >> and after that, where do you think this all goes? >> look, i think they are really what they say they are, which is data dependent we are pretty pleased. i think they were also pretty pleased with the last print from the cpi. it's far from over that they're getting inflation definitely

down to that 2% number i think part of the problem is inflation still might be stuck a little higher than 2% forcing them to do not one more after july but possibly two if that's what the data call for so i think too early to say only one. certainly too early to say two we'll wait and see. >> i'm glad you said fortunately with the economy because i would hate for the fed in light of those good inflation numbers, roger, you're right, we're not where we want to be. they were certainly friendlier than what people thought i hate it if the fed said, wow, we aren't making any progress and raising unemployment we can do it because we're not orchestrating even a soft landing. we're not orchestrating anything at all you tempered that with saying they will be data dependent. if inflation cooperates, you don't hike rates because it's strong, do you >> you're absolutely right

their job is to get inflation under control. they're going to be a 2% target and they want to be moving in that direction once that's established, the other part of the dual mandate, which is to create maximum sustainable employment i think they are at this stage balancing both stronger focus on inflation. once inflation is under control, i think they would be relieved to be able to say job done not there yet, however not there yet. >> roger, do you have any different view about where you have been about a soft landing versus a recession i think you have been in the recession camp and i ask that because as we've seen over the last ten days, at least the market now is not necessarily expecting a recession. >> so the reason i was in the recession more likely camp, it appears to be sticky back to the question we hear from joe, the possibility of having gone a little further i think is the risk. that's the underlying theory of

why recession is possible, which is the inflation stays sticky, the fed has to move not one, not two, maybe three more times. nothing has changed my view yet of that being a risk i'm hoping as with everybody else that inflation moves down more quickly and soft landing becomes more possible. >> put your investor hat on. have you watched these ten days and marvelled at it and said this makes a lot of sense to me? or have you watched this and said this doesn't make sense >> i'm more in the camp of, gee, i hope that they're right that, you know, underlying earnings and momentum is powerful enough and inflation proves it's not intractable. i'm not there yet. i'm on the scratch my head, hope they're right but i'm not sure i'm completely convinced in this one just yet. >> can you take this, i like to ask you inside the fed from your days there in terms of how you think jay powell is going to talk about things and then more importantly -- i don't know if

it's more important or not, how he may talk about things at jackson hole, when that speech gets written and how many adjustments are made up until the last moment. >> i think the way we want to talk about things this week assuming that they, in fact, move the 25 point basis point move that's baked in he wants to keep the next two meetings as live meetings. i don't think he wants to signal that they are in a sense done because, one, they're not and, two, they have broad implications to the point that you just raised. i think vis-a-vis jack sson hol that's the more thoughtful speech the risk management, how they're thinking about things here on out. having to weigh too much and too little that may be the way to move this to meeting to meeting to a broader underlying thesis of how the fed thinks. >> roger, do you think the fed

cares if the bond market stays where it is, the 10-year and the 2-year, let's just say it stays there, do you think they care they keep getting further and further away from what the market really believes they're hoping it comes around would that be a signal to them that the market still doesn't believe that, you know, we need to do these things at least it's going to be reversed quickly at some point. >> i think they would want to push against the reverse quickly. at some point the second part of your question. you've heard them say that, you know, a few times. i think chair powell said that at the last press conference pretty clear that an expectation of a cut in 'thi'24 is not in t minds. they care about the financial conditions and the fact the equity markets are rallying which is good in many ways it creates something you mentioned earlier, a wealth effect, that drives the economy forward, that gives them room to

continue to raise rates if necessary. i do not think they want to crunch the equity markets out of some vendetta. that is not how they're thinking about some things. they're focused on inflation and the strength in equity tells them -- >> i meant the bond market i meant the bond market not cooperating. >> same thing with the bond market. >> they go up another 3/4 points, not that you said it, but maybe one, maybe two more, i mean, think about where the ten year would be versus -- i mean, the inversion would be like 200 basis points. >> does the inversion even matter anymore >> maybe not >> not that inversions do matter anymore, but i think that's fair look, i think the way they think about the bond market is again the same thing the cost of borrowing, the transmission mechanism seems to be a little stuck, so to speak they are raising rates and the bond market is basically saying you're going to have to cut sooner rather than later and i

think they don't believe it. there is a disconnect between the fed and the bond market. i would not bet against the fed because they have the power to keep raising rates until people, so to speak, pay attention that is not what they want to do they want to get inflation under control. let's see how it plays out. >> roger, always great to see you. getting your perspective on all of it. we will catch up with you to see where things land later this week thanks coming up in this summer of strikes, a possible strike at ups could be the costliest in a century. we're going to bring you the latest on these contract talks in the next hour "squawk box" comg ghba inrit ckse you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com i'm sholeh, and i lost 75 pounds with golo. with a partner that always puts you first. i went from a size 20 to a size 6. before golo, nothing seemed to work.

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this week marks 33 years since the americans with disabilities act was signed into law banning discrimination against workers with disabilities yet employees are often reluctant to disclose disabilities sharon epperson is here. >> good morning, joe new report by disability in recently surveyed 485 companies in 30 industries and found the vast majority, 93%, encourage employees to confidentially self-identify as having a disability most aren't doing it only 4.6 u.s. employees at those companies self-identify as a person with a disability meanwhile, the prevalence of people with disabilities in the workplace is far greater, as high as 25% according to a recent survey by boston consulting group some employers like pseg foster inclusion and encourage people

with disabilities to bring their full selves to work. >> we'd be excluding a huge pool of potential employees if we weren't focused on that population not just bringing them in the door but making sure they have the resources and the comfort they need to feel included and want to stay. >> still many people with disabilities may stay silent fearing stigma or losing out on a job or a promotion emily dao who i met with recently says that can change. >> when we shift that narrative and we begin to say you can identify as having a disability, that is something that you can be proud of that makes you who you are, that number of people who are identifying in the workplace as disabled is going to grow. >> after its awareness campaign pseg saw the number of people who identify as disabled identify in the workplace triple

joe? >> sharon, the process for accommodations is often a difficult one. could that be deterring employees, some requesting >> it actually could the americans with disabilities act is requiring that employers make reasonable accommodations, adjustments or modifications for employees with a known disability so that they can have equal employment opportunities many companies don't know how many of their workers have a disability or even require accommodations researchers at boston consulting group say companies may not approve accommodations when people with disabilities request accommodations, equipment, software, adjustments to physical environment or flexible work arrangements, the outcomes at work improve significantly. one thing the companies worry about is the cost, right the expense generally is not that great 56% of accommodations cost nothing to implement according to a recent report

others cost on average about $500. >> i can understand why people don't want to say anything they think it's going to be something that the employer looks at and says, oh, you're not as valuable as you were before i think of it even when i was pregnant i didn't want to tell people >> exactly exactly. particularly people who have that invisible disability, people who might be neurodivergent may not want to explain what accommodations they need they don't want to be missing out on any opportunities and be lower on the rank. >> i think the key is it has to come from the top. if pseg is doing that and letting people know it's okay. >> and have leaders say what their issues have been and be open about that. >> thank you, sharon >> sure. when we come back, european airline ryan air cutting the passenger forecast the company cfo will join us check out energy prices.

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. good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. green on the screen. dow up 64 points nasdaq up 44 points and s&p 500 looking to open 10 points higher some of our favorite foods reporting. >> pizza. >> the kids. >> can't miss. >> it's hard to -- >> i do like pizza but it's -- it's not something i indulge on. >> one of the greats one of the greats. domino's pizza reporting just moments ago earnings of an adjusted 3.08. 3 cents better than expected coming in at $1.02 billion it missed estimates for same store sales growing $1.07 billion. it missed the streets

expectations they said 2/3 of the stores will have the ability to take orders and that stock is up >> domino's prospects, it is possible they can find it at home the crust is pretty good a little lumpy >> you mean one of the crusts that you buy >> yeah. >> chef kernen chef kernen. >> they're pretty close to -- >> make it up at home any time. >> i was looking into how you can buy for like $200. >> pizza ovens. >> pizza ovens i was thinking that might be a worthy investment. >> our neighbor has one. >> yeah. and? >> the question is, does it

break? >> i think the new one -- 200 bucks -- >> it was 2 -- i think the good ones unfortunately are more. i'm cheap. >> ryanair out with results of the first quarter of fiscal year 2024 striking a cautious tone for travel demand in the remainder of the year. joining us right now is ryanair group's chief financial officer. neil, you had really great numbers. the most passengers you've ever taken. big increases in fares where the average fare was up by 42% but you also see a few things that concern you about the remainder of the year and as a result the stock was a little down. why don't you talk about that. what do you see that actually concerns you >> well, first of all, great to see you, becky thanks for having me on the show yeah, very strong quarter. the coms last year were softer.

we had a bumper easter and the coronation we're somewhat cautious looking into the winter. we don't have an awful lot of visibility this time of year just over 10% booked into q3 and that's 5% booked with q4 it's difficult to know what will happen we are conscious that interest rates have been rising in the u.k. and europe over the past number of months and passengers may need some price stimulations and encourage some travel to the extent that they did last year as you know well, our model is we're building the planes, going to carry 183.5 million passengers thanks to the space we have on the balance sheet, we need to stimulate traffic where we're best based to do so and grab more market share as a result of that. >> you are europe's largest passenger airline just by the numbers, by the passenger numbers, but that 5% booking

that you see right now in the fourth quarter, the 10% in the third quarter, is that unusual or is that kind of what you would normally be at these levels >> no, that's normalized i'm talking about the third quarter at christmas and the fourth quarter for us is gpi that's on line for business. we don't have a huge amount of visibility into winter so we're cautioning we don't know what happens at this point in time but it is a possibility. >> when you say stimulate, you mean cut rates cut fares. >> lower fares, exactly. >> one of the concerns people had, too, was just what the boeing delays for those airline deliveries are going to mean for you. it doesn't sound like you were quite as concerned as you were months ago >> a lot of supply chain issues. i think they've been hugely unlucky in the past few weeks. they had a strike with spirit, a manufacturer in wichita.

that was just sorted out the only real link between wichita and fuselages saw a bridge collapse in montana over the myellow stone river they couldn't have predicted that one that will have an impact on delivery which is why we took down traffic marginally this morning from 185.5 to 183.5 million. >> what are you seeing now in terms of the heat wave that's been hatchippening in europe? are people changing where they're going for vacation >> no, they're still heading buckets of rain you'd be heading for the hot spots as well. we're carrying about 600,000 across europe.

the airports are full and everybody's trying to get away there have been some noticeable headlines around heat waves. it is quite localized. we're seeing forerst fires in greece but people are trying to get away from rain in ireland and the u.k. >> the federal reserve is meeting this week but the european central bank is meeting as well. they are expected to raise rates. if you are worried that people are going to get hit, consumers will be feeling the pinch later in the year, do you think that the ecb should stop raising rates or do you think they're doing the right thing because they're going after inflation and that's one of the big problems >> look, they have inflation targets. the difficulty i suppose in ireland is there are so many different economies from the italians, the irish, it's hard to have a one size fits all. maybe slightly easier in the u.s. for the feds.

i think they e've got a couple more rate increases to go. what we've found over the years is people continue to travel in numbers and they get a little more price sensitive that leads us to our own so opportunities to grow market share at lower fares. >> your belgian pilots are expected to go on strike this week, the 29th and 30th of july. they won a strike earlier in the month. what happened? where do things stand? what are the issues? >> if we look at the strike that they had a weekend ago, that was not greatly sport. 1/3 of our pilots turned up. non-based belgian aircraft, we operated 30% off the belgian flights. very small portion of the overall operations we're meeting a major this week. if they want to do something, we're happy for them to get on and do what they want to do the weekend after next

as things stand, we're operating 3200 flights busiest schedule ever. the smallest pockets of unrest we've looked at our people we are faster than anyone expected 24 months ahead of expectations. we put in pay increases. we have 1,000 cadets going to our training schools no shortage of applications. look, i think belgium is a little bit special around with everybody else >> neil, i have to say you and michael o'leary, the ceo at ryanair, are unlike just about any other airplane executive or frankly just about any other executive we talk to the only people i can think back that you remind me of are kehl lir her who was at southwest way back when. really plain spoken. say it like you see it >> you wouldn't last over here you'd be canceled so quickly

you've got to get with it. >> that's why -- >> huge doubts about your virtue really, i don't think you're a very virtuous person at all. >> joe says that as a compliment, neil. >> you should. you should yeah, if that wasn't clear, you definitely should. >> it is kind of refreshing to say exactly what you think where did you guys come up with that where did you get it if you model yourself after south western, this is just you guys and what you do >> something in the water in dublin, becky. >> or in the beer, one or the other, right >> maybe >> neil, we appreciate it. we appreciate you always speaking your mind and we appreciate you coming by >> great seeing you both bye-bye. >> coming up, amazon reportedly telling some workers they may need to relocate to hubs in major cities details coming up. later, we'll talk to kyle

bass for the latest of the u.s. and china relations. and a reminder, get the best of "squawk box" on our daily podcast. follow squawk pod on your vote app listen any time. we're coming right back.

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u.s. equity futures, here we go. up 11 on the dow that's a solid number so far we've got a lot of earnings this week 40% on the dow and amazon as far as the nasdaq told employees across the company that they may have to relocate to main offices that are concentrated in bigger cities wall street journal reports this said managers told remote workers and those in smaller offices that relocation is being considered on a team-by-team basis and those being asked to relocate will be eligible for relocation benefits. when we come back, barbenheimer didn't disappoint bringing in a combined $235 million for ticket sales "variety's" brent lang will join us next. you can watch or listen to us live on the cnbc app.

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. barbenheimer lived up to expectations generating domestic wins both smashing weekend estimates. "barbie" earned 155 million in the first three days the highest opening of the year. "oppenheimer" made 80.5 million. joining us more, brent lang, "variety" executive editor just so weird. we're even talking about those two movies in the same breath. i get it

and it makes a good story. they're both really breathing life into theater chains i'm just hoping it's not the last hooray because of the strikes. >> well, i think you hit the nail on the head there because it last hu hurrah i mean, this is a phenomenal weekend skand it's a reason for movie theater owners to feel very good about the state of their business it's also a celebration of kind of a original, a little bit off beat creativity, which has been really missing this summer and i think when you look at the failure of a lot of films that came out this summer, they weren't scratching that itch of having something different, offering something original and sort of zesty, and these two films clearly did just that. it may well be the last hurrah if you look ahead, a lot of the major studios are looking at moving their big tent pole releases in the fall because of

the strike and because of what that means in terms of movie stars being able to promote their films. >> where are we with the strike right now? >> what's your forecast for both that we're talking about how long -- and is it going to be settled in tandem >> according to my sources, they're probably going to go back to the actors they feel like they're a little closer with the actors than they are with the writers right now there's kind of a cooling off period none of the sides are talking to each other it could last quite a bit of time here. i think optimistically we're looking at something like october for both strikes to be settled, possibly a little bit later in the year. >> what's next that you see, and is it going to be a slow burn for mission impossible i haven't seen it yet. i want to see it are there a lot of people who still want to do that? >> i want to see it.

it's on my -- i don't want to say bucket list. >> have you seen oppenheimer i know oppenheimer is very cerebral. >> it's definitely a different tape of movie than oppenheimer if you look at a lot of these movies, what happened during covid is delays and shutdowns added tens of millions in the case of mission: impossible nearly $100 million to that film's budget. i don't see how it gets there globally it will probably lose money thee theatrically it's a real big problem in hollywood. movies cost too much money skpshsand that's kind of colliding with these new labor tensions, which means somehow, somewhere, someone's going to have to figure out a way to make these things a little cheaper. >> the different studios and netflix and the places where we

watch entertainment, who's going to last the longest? who's most vulnerable from the strike >> in terms of the strike? >> yeah. >> i think when you look at who's best positioned it's a company like apple or amazon where entertainment is an infan tis mall part of their overall picture. i think the purer play media companies like disney, like warner brothers, zdiscovery, paramount global, those are really feeling the pinch i think that's going to be a sense of tension within these negotiations is that, you know, on the one hand you have a company with a market cap of $3 trillion in apple on the other hand, you have a company like paramount global with a market cap of $10 billion. there's a chasm that separates these companies. if you're an apple or you're a netflix, you really want to hold on to your proprietary data. that's been a big issue in these talks about whether or not to share data with actors and

writers. >> and the theater chains that had a great weekend, they really did. packed, not an open parking space most places. are we going back to the lean years of the peandemic? if this drags on and on and on where there's nothing opening, what's going to induce people to go to the theaters at this point? >> i think you're okay until august a lot of the studios have spent money. then you get into september and october and you have things like dune 2 apparently moving people are wondering if disney's going to stay the course with its plans for marvels in november just losing one of those movies, they call them tent poles for a reason they hold up the whole slate if you lose one of those movies, it could be catastrophic for some of these movie theaters, which have a lot of debt on their books because of a period

of m&a that proceeded the pandemic but that are still struggling to get people to come back to their venue, and i think they are understandably ecstatic about this weekend but probably somewhere a little further back feeling pretty anxious about where things are headed. >> how do you see it playing out with how -- if i were an actor or a writer, i would want to -- i'd be worried about ai and i'd want to participate in streaming revenue as well. so i understand what's going on. but how do the two sides walk that line where everybody is finally satisfied? how do you think that plays out? i know fran drescher doesn't want to be called the nanny anymore. if you were a really strict nanny dealing with children and yelling at -- i don't see why that's not a good quality here i think that makes her well suited to dealing with studio

executives and actors, right sf i think the actors are feeling good about fran adddrescher they feel like she's done a really good job of putting the actors' struggle in a larger context about issues that the labor movement is having right now. but when you say where both sides are satisfied. i mean, i think ultimately this is going to have to be a compromise, and someone's going to have to give in some area as you say, the actors and the writers are dealing with an entertainment echo system that's been fundamentally altered and that's created a lot of attention, and it's really impacted them on a dollars and cents basis. i think they feel like they need to make a stand here, and that's just going to mean that a resolution is much more difficult to achieve. >> oh, boy okay, brian, appreciate it thank you. >> thanks for having me. >> either of you ever watch any of the seasons of nanny 911.

you know what i'm talking about? >> no. >> we used to watch that they picked the hardest cases in the world and send a nanny in there, and you'd watch them tame these really -- >> hardest cases meaning terrible children? >> basically, basically. >> there were a lot of seasons and we used to watch years ago we used to watch, my kids loved watching

good morning a big week of earnings ahead for investors, plus, the fed set to meet and talk interest rates a look at what investors need to watch is coming up plus, u.p.s. workers set to deliver a blow to the u.s. economy if they go on strike what it could mean for you. and a special interview with presidential hopeful nikki haley. we will talk bidenomics, china, and much more the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪

good morning, and welcome to sq "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin, along with becky quick and joe kernen, a lot going on this monday morning. a lot of earnings coming out throughout the day and week. u.s. equity futures right now up again about 42 points. nasdaq looking to open about 26 points higher. we're looking at the s&p 500 looking to open about 7.5 points higher let's talk about treasuries. you're looking at the ten-year note standing at 3.805 the two-year at 4.831. let's talk about oil as well you can buy it buy the barrel. wti will cost you 77.51. and then crypto interestingly. i wanted to ask you about this >> hit pretty hard >> bitcoin down to $29,321 i wanted to try to understand what that was about given that there was a lot of enthusiasm given on the back of blackrock and these other guys trying to go to the s.e.c. >> you get -- it always moves

with the fed, the minute it looks like the fed's done is when it goes that's the whole story 21 million it's the supposedly thefiat. let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket moves. gold's been 1900 for a long time you got some notable analyst calls i'm told, dom? >> i do have some notable analyst calls ahead of the busy week of earnings we've got, about a third of the s&p is reporting their numbers. we'll start with tesla shares. the ev maker just about a percent or so lower premarket. about a half a million shares of volume so far. it's driven in part by the folks at ubs who have downgraded the stock to neutral they raised the target price up from 270 to 220. now fully praised in stronger

execution given more limited downsides with those price cuts that we saw. it did drive strong demand for its evs. this run higher that we've already seen has encompassed what they think is the positivity around the price cuts driving demand you've got shares of netflix, which are higher by half a percent. the streaming video and movie company is getting some help from analysts at baird they've upgraded it to an outperform to neutral. it was 340 before. they cited things like more confidence in netflix' supported subscription plans and password crac crac crac crackdowns we're seeing a little bit of fractional movement. we end on american express, which is lower by 2% 75,000 shares of volume. the credit card payments network and diversified financial companies getting downgraded to an underweight by analysts at piper sandler. it was neutral before that they cut the target price from

149 bucks to 172, they cited concerns over amex amex shares tdown 2%, remember. a more disappointing earnings report from last week driving a little bit of that negative sentiment over the course of the last couple of days. we'll keep an eye on those shares. >> thanks. the producer is always saying move on, wrap, don't talk to don. this time he say i have some tape of brian harmon it was broadcast by nbc, so i can kind of see the synergistic mode of talking about the open championship right now. >> lap the field i mean, if you've noticed, he has showed up at a lot of majors in the past, but he's only won two or three tournaments and now this is -- and you know where he -- he's a huge sea island guy, huge frederica, one of the clubs down there

huge. >> he's a georgia bulldog, right? he's got roots down in that part of the country. >> great to see. he does it all -- think about this, he does it all left-handed. i can't even imagine, can you? >> i can't imagine because i'm a righty myself. the thing that was crazy to watch oafver the weekend on nbc and nbc sports with this guy doing what he was doing, was his pud putter not just the fact that he had a massive block of a putter you see right there. you saw the stats right, he made 58 of 59 putts inside of ten feet he basically didn't miss with the putter you don't have to hit the ball well, if you can putt like that, you just win is what it comes down to. >> i wouldn't win a battle title on ten foot putts. >> i wouldn't either you and i have played together i'm okay from that range but not

58 for 59. >> i'd like be like michael, you go back to play basketball you cannot play -- i'd hit 150 probably i wouldn't even -- >> i'd probably put myself in that same 150 to 200 range. >> especially if you have to make them. these guys, they have families and stuff, they have to make those putts to make a living no way. >> listen, harman, he made some equipment changes that were kind of talked about over the last year or so. >> did you hear he got motivated by the people who were heckling him? some guy said something about -- >> what are you doing here. >> you don't have quite the game. >> he said the blank for this, and he said that motivated him. >> won by six strokes. >> if he can deal with that and win by six strokes at a major, he might be in the conversation with regard to the ryder cup somewhere down the line. >> right bring it >> all right, dom chu, thank

you. >> i'll see you guys later. >> see you later, thanks. it is one of the busiest weeks of earnings season tech results taking center stage starting with alphabet and microsoft tomorrow p we want to bring in jason tren ard, the chairman and ceo of stra stteigis, you're of the opinion they're going to be pretty hawkish >> i think so and certainly gichbl the data lately they clearly want to slow the economy down there are clearly some employment pressures you thought unemployment claims were rising. they're starting to fall again the fed's very concerned about labor. i think the fed's going to taken tomorrow and talk hawkishly about the september meeting. this is the biggest pause of the year, if you will, this is the

biggest stretch of time between fed meetings there's probably an extra incentive to talk a little bit hawkishly, in, think. >> you brought up something i hadn't thought of in this context. you think the fed's going to be watching this labor strife and potential strikes as another issue. higher wages leads to inflation down the road. >> absolutely. a small percentage of the u.s. work force right now is unionized, at least among the private sector there's more public sector union members now than private sector union members. but in the '70s, 30% of the work force was unionized, and that's how you got a wage price spiral. here it's a little bit different. it's different now but by the same token they set the stage at least from a news cycle point of view or at least just framing for everyone else that's out there, and if you looked at united airlines. you're looking at some of the airline pilots, they've gotten very rich already, very rich --

not saying they don't deserve them, but 40% over four years is meaningful you had the teamsters, uaw in holl hollywood. they're going to be watching those negotiations carefully if those get set as high as the airline pilots are, it seems to me they have more work to do >> you've been waiting for this recession that the -- you know, the bond market's been signaling for forever at this point, waiting for the markets to kind of fall into that slump, and at the same time, we've seen this crazy melt up. how do you make sense of that? >> well, listen, i think, first of all, the economy's more resilient than we expected you could say, you know, we're early, but that's like a euphemism for wrong. so the economy is clearly more resilient than we thought. also, though, i would say if you look at the stock market this year, if you look at the s&p 500, during the week of silicon valley, the s&p was up 0 -- it

was up 58 basis points in early march for the year-to-date as soon as silicon valley bank failed, the market took off, and that was largely because the fed stopped quantitative tightening, injected a lot of money into the system, and then you also had the treasury that was injecting a lot of liquidity because of the budget ceiling, debt c ceiling. >> if the facts change, have you changed your opinion of what happens next to stocks >> it seems to me, though, given the valuations of the market, i'll tell you i'm less bearish by the same token i don't know if i'd be putting a lot of extra money to work here the market's trading largely close to -- which are pretty, at this point, still pretty optic t -- optimistic there's very little chance of a

rece recession where the market is priced today that makes me worried. the risk reward seems to be upside down. you're risking probably 2 or $3 for every dollar you might make in the s&p 500 and generally you want that to be the opposite. you want to make $3 for every dollar yourself risking. >> what are you looking for in earnings this week >> it's all about the guidance the earnings have come in better than expected so far they almost always to, but it's really about the guidance. i think you saw that with some of the tech names last week. the numbers were good, whether it was netflix or tesla, the guidance was a little squishy. >> we saw it with ryanair this morning too. >> true. it's always about the guidance it seems that will tell the tale with a third of the s&p 500 reporting this week. >> so what do you do right now >> my own opinion is you want to stay close to shore. you want to focus on a lot of quality. there's still an awful lot of companies -- 40% of the russell 2000 hasn't had a profit in the

last year. you want to focus, given the fact that cost of capital is rising and has risen meaningfully and we have not seen the full impact of that increase in the cost of capital, it seems you want to focus on the quality companies, right the shorter duration companies that have the ability to give money back to shareholders the thing is that includes the magnificent seven, probably most among any company, right because they generate tons of cash they don't necessarily have to put it back into capex or r&d, they can wind up giving it to shareholders in the form of dividends or share repurchases you have to be careful because that's a big portion of the market for everyone else i think you really want to focus on companies that can reliably put up earnings and give money back to shareholders. >> jason, thanks for coming in. >> thank you for having me. lionel messi fever taking hold in the united states after making his mls debut we've got more on that after the break. and then a look at the state of freight ahead of what could

be the costliest strike in a century. we're going to take a look at how investors should be preparing for a holdout at u.p.s. quk x"s mi rzon packages in now. "sawbo icongight back need to gear up so you can show up. with the hottest brands, like nike, jordan, on, carhartt, and hoka. and, with even more options at dicks.com, it's never been easier to sport your style.

welcome back a big weekend for soccer fans in america. fist the u.s. women's team

winning their first world cup match against vietnam, and then lionel messi making his mls debut with the winning goal. joining us to talk about more, lot os of folks watching soccer this weekend or football depending on where you're from, i guess, george. tell us how you think this changes the dynamic and how popular ultimately -- i mean, is this the moment? i think we keep waiting for -- i don't know, maybe it's a series of inflection points, but boy did this weekend feel like one. >> absolutely it was a series of inflection point, starting with the women's world cup. 5.2 million people watched the match, actually 41,000 people attended in new zealand. women's soccer is very popular and expanding rapidly around the world, and i think the united states with the best players in the world will be no exception and of course friday night in miami, messi scoring the winning goal on a free kick in dramatic

fashion, sold out electric environment. these are big moments for soccer, and of course messi is the greatest or if not one of the greatest soccer players ever, 477 million social media followers. an iconic brand, and a great addition to the mls. >> so longerterm in terms of now there's going to be questions about the valuations of these teams, how that changes, what you think happens. the it havtv piece of this is ld up by apple for a while. i don't know if you think there's other opportunities for mls to do other things >> i think this is going to be the decade of soccer in the united states. with the world cup coming in 2026, you've seen a massive appreciation of the value of these franchises i think the fundamentals for the mls over the next five to ten years are going to be very good. and the again, the women are going to play a part in the game of soccer here in the u.s.

i think you're going to see a real expansion of soccer here in the next four or five years in a way we hadn't seen very similar to when the world cup came in the 1990s, there was a big push. i think we're so much further ahead today. the sky's the limit for soccer. >> there's a massive debate about pay, pay equity. we're talking about women's soccer, men's soccer this is true in basketball women's basketball how do you think this all plays out, should play out >> i think you really have to roo look at the percentages that the men earn of arrive, and in fairness women should have the same percentage. i think over time it should play out that way it seems fair to me and only right that the men's percentage of revenue is the same as the women. >> separately, big headline last week, two weeks ago when bob iger made his comments about espn and trying to find partner for espn

there are those that thought that perhaps a partnership could be with an amazon, an apple, or a media company. we've had some reporting from cnbc.com that some of that might actually be a partnership with one of the leagues or maybe multiple leagues as in the nba and nfl and possibly the nhl and others if you were bob iegeger and you were thinking about this, what do you think they need to do this is as they go direct to consumer as a streaming product. >> look, if i were bob iger, i' realize i have a great asset in espn on the other hand it's facing enormous headwinds with the transition from linear to streaming. he's got to find growth strategies like anybody else, you got to pivot so where do i pivot? i pivot to capital partners.

i pivot to people that can provide me content and distr distribution the nfl, nba, and major league baseball provide content distribution i don't think you can sit and do the same thing and hope that things get better. you're going to have to readjust and make some new bets >> do you think, though, the leagues can effectively go into business with espn they already are partners, of course, but the second you become an equity holder, does it change the dynamic with which you think about how tolicense your content to the other n networks does it upset those arrangements and is there more money into lots of folks than going into one or two pipes if you will >> i think that they're going to -- the leagues will always be licensing their content. there may be a narrow application when there's an equity opportunity in the case of baseball and the nba, they're going to have to go the streaming route to solve their regional sports network

challenge in the future. that may be an opportunity in the case of the nfl, they're looking at what to do with red zone, their network, nfl network. it will be a narrow application from the network standpoint. >> i want to go back to the pay equity thing i'm trying to figure out exactly what you said. it was a pretty good dodge, i think. you sounded like you were fully in support of pay equity how much revenue in either soccer or basketball does the wnba or women's soccer make as a percentage what percentage of men is it, and are women significantly below as a percentage of that revenue or is it just a fact of what the revenues are? they're so vastly different? what percentage -- >> the revenues are different, and therefore -- >> how much? >> meaningfully different. i mean, meaningfully different. >> wnba versus nba, is it half

>> more. meaningfully, it's meaningfully different. billions of dollars of difference. >> so then it's never going to be -- people that want pay equity, you didn't say you were for pay equity, then it's like they should make half, are you okay with saying that? >> i'm not going to get into what somebody should or shouldn't make. >> i know, i heard i heard. >> i like that answer. >> wnba revenue is between 180 and $200 million, nba revenue is 10 billion. >> so you better not hope that it's based on revenue or it's not -- >> right the only thing you could hope for -- >> so you're saying you want them paid less. >> so your answer would pay them less because they make a lot more than -- >> i would pay -- if the nba gets 50% of the revenue, the players, the wnba players should get 50% of the revenue it's a percentage of the revenue, not the quality of the pay. >> okay. fair nough george, always good to see you, sir. we appreciate it, and we should

mention the folks in our audience that tomorrow -- and i'm going to be there, i'm headed to los angeles after the show today, cnbc and boardroom hosting game plan. it's a high powered event bringing the most influential leaders across the sports landscape including athletes, o owners, and innovators to talk about the intersection of sports and business i'll be interviewing kevin durant and travis scott. >> that's very cool. i wish i brought a kevin durant baseball card few you today, but i didn't. >> i'll try to figure out a signature -- >> basketball card, sorry. >> kyle has his shoes, k.d.'s shoes. >> we should have him sign the shoes. >> when we come back, work, at u.p.s. poised for the biggest strike in the u.s. in 60 years we've got what you need to know next. and then your money, your

vote, presidential hopeful, former u.n. ambassador and former governor of south carolina nikki haley will join us we'll be right back.

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we're one week away from a possible strike at u.p.s frank holland joins us with more. >> a strike by the 340,000 teamsters workers at u.p.s. would create a more than $7 billion negative impact to the economy. that's according to estimates. that's if the strike lasts ten days, even more if longer. u.p.s. delivers about 22 million packages a day fedex would be able to absorb a fraction of that volume. fedex telling its customers to secure capacity early before they just run out. the post office telling cnbc it's ready for any surge in volume they have the capacity to absorb about 30 million additional packages per day the majority of that negative impact, $4 billion expected to hit u.p.s. customers that includes amazon, nike, macy's etsy and other large companies. amazon says they don't expect a

significant impact, but amazon packages make up just around 10% of overall u.p.s. volume the wall street impact may pale in comparison not main street impact a report adding a a u.p.s. strike would create a significant and lasting harm for small businesses, household workers, sole practitioners and online retailers across the country. for investors looking for beneficiaries of this possible disr disruption, fedex of course, and pitney bowes companies expected to benefit. that's another business where u.p.s. is another player, and xpo and ryder rising on expectation. and yellow court a trucking company that bridged a deal with the teamsters to avoid a strike. bigger pictures for investors according to vital knowledge, the potential inflation and margin impact of a new u.p.s. and teamsters contract and put the scope of u.p.s.

operations in perspective, u.p.s. put out data in 2020 that it moves just about 6% of u.s. gdp every single day joe, back over to you. >> not packages gdp, that's pretty big i see mail trucks, u.s. mail on sundays everywhere i mean, they're trying at this point. and i see an amazon truck on almost every block, though the packages are moving. but u.p.s. obviously that would be a -- and frank, don't you think yellow should have stayed yellow freight so people know what the hell we're talking about. we were talking about it earlier. why change it from yellow freight to yellow corps. >> it's all about branding you're just joe, we don't call you joe kernen, we just call you joe. >> okay. >> madonna. >> frank >> frank >> becky >> yep it just works. it works a little bit better on a serious note this could be

a big disruption it returns to the negotiating table tomorrow, we'll be close to watching. >> you need three names. think about that andrew needs three names. >> just to get by, it's very, very sad. >> kind of sad. >> good to see you, frank. >> really could go by one name, nikki, i think everybody knows who nikki is, former u.n. ambassador joins us to talk u.s., china relationships and her presidential bid. and new jersey suing new york over its congestion tax stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc. n. helping businesses both large and small, communities and the people who live and work there grow and thrive. we're proud to call these places home too. they're where we put down roots, and where together, we work to help move

everyone's financial goals forward. pnc bank.

shortly after leaving the united nations, former u.n. ambassador nikki haley gave the asian leadership conference a stark warning about the growing threat from communist china. four years later, she thinks that the threat has only grown, as lawmakers from both sides of the aisle have failed go meet the challenge. fo former u.s. ambassador to the u.n., former governor of south

carolina and presidential candidate, nikki haley good morning. >> >> good morning, thank you for having me on >> it's good to have you here. we have such a strange relationship to china, so important to the world and yet so fraught with risk and peril do you have a way to try to walk that line? >> well, first, let's open our eyes let's be honest about what's happening. you know, you sit there and you see blinken going and trying to appease china and yellen saying let's do more business with china, but the reality is if you look at yellen's conversation, she said, well, it shouldn't be a winner take off scenario it should be something where we play by the rules and we can be fair competitors to even say that means you don't understand china china has never played by the rules. they don't see us as a comp competitor they see us as an enemy. this is the biggest threat we've had since pearl harbor the infiltration they've done in our country, they've bought

400,000 acres of u.s. soil, most recently by grand force air force base they've bought the largest pork producer in the country. they have spy balloons going over us. they go and spend millions of dollars in our universities to spread chinese propaganda. they have chinese front companies lobbying and look at the military, largest naval fleet in the world, 350 ships they'll have 400 ships in two years. we won't even have 350 ships in two decades. and now they've become a developer of neurostrike weapons, which go and impair brain function tha they're developing hypersonic missiles we've barely started they're stealing $600 billion of intellectual property eff year. >> what do you say to american companies that are doing business there do they need to get out? >> i think american companies need to look at what happens with the europeans in issue are.

what i said, i spoke to 400 ceos last summer, and what i said is if china pulls the rug out from under us tomorrow, will you be ready? every company needs to have a plan b the way america needs to look at it is just from a national security lens, are we ready? >> is it a plan b when something happens or is it a plan b right this minute. are you saying if tim cook is watching right now, are you saying tim cook and apple, you need to actually withdraw from china both for yourself and for the country. is that what you're really saying >> let's first talk about what americans need to know president xi started a commission that e perhe persona ch chair, look at our tech companies, our financial data, our health care data, and now know the chinese military has it we look at it through a national security lens. when covid happened, they wanted

you to put on a mask that was made in china. they wanted you to take a covid test made in china you go to the drugstore and everything is made in china. let's just say if china pulls the rug out from under us tomorrow, will we be ready for american companies they need to understand this is no longer a competitor this is an enemy and they need to look at doing businesses with our friends, india, japan, south korea, let's start doing more business with our friends and become less dependent on china that's what india's doing, that's what japan's doing. >> the message is get less dependent on it is not you need to get out right now because? >> well, i mean, look, the number one cause of death of adults 18 to 49, fentanyl. don't think for a second china doesn't know what they're doing when they have the cartels do that i think if it means us ending normal trade relations, you go to china and say we'll end normal trade relations until you stop killing americans -- >> would you be prepared to do

that >> i think china is an enemy i think we haveto take them incredibly seriously you can look at dollars and cents or you can look at a threat to america. i will tell you that companies and people have said for too long we'll deal with china tomorrow but china is teadealing with us today. we've got to address this. >> nationalism is not something that is foreign in this country. either america first it's absolutely impossible that china just wants to be a super power along with us in this great world that we have with us selling to them, them selling -- that's not what it is? >> i think if you look, everything they say is about destroying the west, everything. >> so it's not just about coexisting in the future >> they never once said they want to coexist. everything they've said is about defeating the president. read president xi's own statements. >> you don't think there are elements of things that we need to work on with china to have a future as a global. >> and self-interest in china, you don't want to destroy your biggest trading partner that

sells -- that you sell all your stuff too. >> so that's the problem too many people are thinking about the dollars and cents. are you still going to be thinking about the dollars and cents, do you still think about the dollars and cents knowing that china's now put a military installation in cuba and if they put chinese military there, are you still going to think about dollars and cents? because that's what they're doing. >> the scariest things that people don't even speak about have been written on the op-ed pages of the wall street journal. one is developing a bio weapon that you could inoculate your own population against first, by say it's a flu vaccine and coinciding with a cyberattack. they could wipe us -- they could wipe us off the map with those two things >> they are trying to beat us on artificial intelligence. they are already doing it with cyber. they're doing it with space. they are coming at all fronts to us, and we keep thinking, oh, but they're such good trade partners if we don't wake up, we will end

up like the europeans did with russia this is the biggest wake-up call we've had and no one's talking about china, but i will continue to talk about it we can do business with other friends, other partners. if we don't wake up to what they're doing. -- don't listen to what i'm saying, look at what they've done look at that infiltration, if that doesn't send a chill up your spine, i don't know what to say. >> let's stick with not necessarily a chill up anyone's spine, we do have an election coming up that's a little bit frightening to some americans based on where we are right now. it's a crowded field as far as republicans go there has been a criticism that republicans, many of the candidates are hesitant to criticize president trump, there's also criticism if you're at 2 or 3%, you're just playing -- you're just basically renominating -- or going to nominate president trump, because the field is too dilutive at that point what do you say to all these

things >> this is a marathon. it's not a sprint. we're just getting started this will start to shake up post-labor day there are people who either want me to like trump 100% of the time or not like him 100% of the time that's not how i think if he does something good, i support him. if he doesn't do something good i hit him on it. i think that's how we should be. when you look at the elections, look back at 2016. in july of 2015, cruz had 4% going into iowa caucuses in november he had 10% in january he won it outright. >> okay. if he does something wrong, you criticize him. i don't know what's going to happen in georgia. i don't know whether there's additional federal charges coming about january 6th have enough things happened at this point for you to say he's a flawed candidate, that the republican party does not need at the top of the ticket or do you still like so many people think it's an unequal system of justice and this is the guy we want to clean up the swamp again? >> i have said it very clearly

that we need a new generational leader we've got to leave this negativity behind. >> would you support him if he gets the nomination? >> i would support him because i'm not going to have a president kamala harris. we can't afford that that is not going to happen, but i will tell you, you look at these indictments. there's probably going to be a fourth indictment. we can't have as republicans him as the nominee he can't win a general election. that's the problem we've got to go and have someone who can actually win and that's what it's going to take i've been a two-term governor that took a double-digit unemployment state and turned it into an economic power house i was at the u.n., i didn't negotiate with one country, i negotiated with 193. it is time for a new leader with new solutions that can move us forward. >> if it's not you andit's trump and maybe you could be vice president -- >> i don't play for seconds. >> give me the other top three if it's not you or trump. >> no, it's going to be me >> that's the best answer. >> at the end of the day, you

have to look at what it's going to take. the other candidates have spent millions of dollars. the accountant in me hasn't spent anything because no one's paying attention next month you'll see me on the de debate stage and then things will start to move and you'll see things start to shift. >> i was going to ask you about business and a shifting sort of playing field in terms of how the republican party has sort of looked at business a lot of this has to do with wokism, anti-wokism, i'm thinking about disney in particular you actually got both i think praised and condemned for your position against desaesantis as related to disney. there's also so many other things happening around the country whether it comes to second amendment issues, whether it comes to climate, banks that do business with certain people, don't do business with other people, how you think about that and how you think about the free market. >> as governor, businesses were my partners. if you take care of your

business community, you take care of the economy. you know, small businesses are the heartbeat of america, and so i always knew if businesses had cash flow they didn't go on vacation they hired more people you want to be partners. i totally disagreed with disney when they went and hit on the don't say gay bill i don't think companies need to get into politics. but i also don't think kbrns should spend taxpayers dollars suing companies. in my state in south carolina, we always work together. we never had those types of issues because at the end of the day, you lift up everybody when you focus on capitalism, when you focus on freedom and when you get out of business's way and businesses need to get out of the politics as well. >> we're seeing, you know, disney's got its own issues with streaming, but also i think it -- shareholders can decide what to do. >> shareholders and consumers can decide what to do. >> and they are deciding

>> that's right. >> governor haley, thank you. >> thank you i hope your listeners will go t to nikkihaley.com. >> you got that in "squawk box" will be right back.

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. the nasdaq rebalancing happens today, bringing big techs weighting back down to

size or maybe a little more down to size. joining us is bradley tusk, the ceo of tusk ventures let's talk a little bit about this i didn't realize what they were doing with that reweighting but when 4.5% of the companies make up more than 48% of the market capitalization of the index they say, whoa, that's a bit too much, we need to rebalance what do you think of that as a tech venture capitalist? >> the rebalancing itself is just math and it makes sense what it says to me in a broader way is we may have companies with just too much market power. the reason that concerns me as an early stage venture capitalist is we need these companies that are going to come along and disrupt amazon, apple, microsoft and meta and google, just like those companies came along and disrupted somebody else and my fear is if the giant companies have so much market power and so much ability to

squash an account coming their way, vps like me can't match competitors to those companies because there's no way they can suke succeed and if we're not seeding those companies now, when those companies get old and bureaucratic like it eventually does, that's what worries me the most. >> i can see as a venture capitalist saying it's way to hard to find new winners the reason you think regulators would be concerned is it because of they think they're monopolies in the making or that already exist? >> we've seen d.o.j.s log conclusions against the companies multiple times already. we've seen concern about how apple places companies in the app store and amazon in the search process when you're

trying to buy something. we already know there's at least concerns that they're violating current market and consumer protection rules but to me as a vc but i think if you're the white house, the nec, ftc, you should be just as worried about the economy as you are about consumers and it's not good for the economy for a few companies to hold most of the power. >> most companies when they look at the ftc and what they've done recently say these are regulators who have run amuck, they're trying to quash any potential deals. what do you say to that? >> especially if you take the investigation last week into chatgpt, somebody's paying attention. we don't have any sort of national data privacy framework.

we have companies with incredible monopolistic power. >> i'll give you that with section 230. i'd like to see that removed i'm shocked it still exists. >> trump in 2020 called for appealing it it may be the only thing we do agree on completely. certainly if you want to know do the companies have monopolistic power, look at section 230 groups on the internet teach little girls how to cut themselves >> i'd rather see a focus on that than even the monopolies or do you think the two are tied? i think they're all tied together but if congress did one thing to help make the internet a better place it would be to reveal section 230

section 230 says if you're a platform like twitter or meta, you can't be sued for the content posted by the consumer >> this goes back to compuserve when it looked like this was a bulletin bored tracing at this point they have algorithms and that make them more like a publisher. >> yeah, look. there's a lawsuit suing internet platforms and saying, look, you claim that the product is the content and we're like a bulletin board but you're serving up all these algorithms that make my 14-year-old son

unable to turn away and look at something else and that means you are the product and filling their minds with harmful information. i think most parents once covid came and went really lost control over their internet use and we can really use the government to step in and help >> what do you think about at this timer rebranding at x >> i know it's been heavily criticized my view is this -- twitter is incredibly important from the perspective of journalists, people in politics and at high positions in corporations. i think elon musk bought it because he wanted attention. he likes when we talk about him. and every time he changes the platform, change the logo from a bird to an x, every is talking about him and ultimately he gets

what he wants. >> thank you for your time >> be consistent, three xs >> coming up, a congestion tax is coming to new york city but new jersey commuters are taking it personally, fighting the new rule in a lawsuit. josh gottheimer will join us and robert kaplan former dallas fed president will join us coming up

good morning futures in the green ahead of the week's first opening bell. the dow on a ten-day win streak, its longest in nearly six years. and fed week the u.s. central bank expected to get back to hiking rates. we're going to speak to robert kaplan and a bonanza at the box office. "barbie" reinvigorating numbers at the box office. we've got the latest from hollywood as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning

and welcome back to "squawk box. i just had a revelation. a b"bonanza" remake they lost their mojo and then michael landon i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin you know, it's not the dog days of august. it's not it's the dog days of summer because it begins on july 3rd when sirius starts rising. >> the constellation >> in the old days, astrology says when sirius moves into that

formation, you get heat, drought and other thunderstorms. they thought it was because of the stars back then. we know that's not why it happens, it's very specific reasons as we know treasury yields are indicated about where they were -- in fact, they were 3.8, 4.8 now we're 4.8, basically 3.8 up kno you know what's happening this week is it fed week >> it is >> i would say smart money is betting on that. >> and this guy qualifies, yeah? >> we'll talk to him in a moment first up, chevron reporting preliminary second quarter results. the oil giant earned $5.8 billion in net profit. that's roughly half its record earnings at this time last year. that worked out to $3.08 a

share. separately chevron announced it was waiving its mandatory retirement age for the ceo and chevron said that the company's cfo will retire next year. an interview with mike wirth is coming up on "squawk on the street." and domino's missing first quarter estimates. higher delivery fees weighed on demand but the stock is still up by 1.6%. and bloomberg reports that apple is asking suppliers to produce about 80 million i-phone 15s this year. the report also say apple is considering raising the price for its i-phone models

>> joining us is mortgage manager steve iseman. what is this to you? >> i think it's two things we came into the year where most people were predicting the most anticipated recession that's never happened a lot of people were very conservative in their position and are trailing so they're trying to keep up. and there's no evidence of a recession. and a lot of people will chase

up and keep chasing. some of our positions from last year were a little conservative. like i said, as long as the economy rolls along, we're going to stay fully invested >> but this has not been an equal outcome. yes, the indexes all look like they're moving up but they're moving up -- >> it's just a few stocks. >> exactly are you buying indexes or -- >> we never buy indices ever >> because you think they're not a good bet you think investors are paying you for more than buying an index? >> over the years our clients are more interested in making money but in bad times they want to preserve capital. it's hard to do that when you're just buying the indices. we'd rather pick stocks and sometimes raise some cash and staply stuff

>> is it your view that this has made a nice little run, take some profits off the table and wait for the next run? what's the strategy? >> i mean, we don't sell much because we've had positions for so long. in the past the tax implications weren't so great today they're onerous. if you sell something that you have a big gain in, you pay a 35% tax and you put it in treasuries for 5%, which isn't bad today, you're down a lot we'd rather stick with positions and just hold them if they're working, that's great. if they're not working that's okay because of the tax implications >> when you think about the federal reserve, how much does that play into your thought for the rest of the year with thinking that maybe there's one more increase but maybe there's two -- >> maybe there's three >> maybe there's three, okay

does it matter to you? >> i mean, it matters to the extent that the higher rates go, the more negative impact it tends to have on growth stocks yeah, it does matter the only caveat i would say is after the fed raises rates, powell will speak and powell will be dovish, even when he wants to be hawkish. that just tends to be his personality. >> as somebody who did call the crisis right -- three months ago all we did around this table was we had different guests come on to hype rventilate about the banks, how that was going to create a death spiral. all of a sudden either that has been forgotten, maybe people have blinders ons , i don't know what is going on but somehow that has been removed from the discussion in a way that seems surprising -- >> i don't think it's been removed from the discussion. the banks have had a melt up

over a long period of time i'll give you an example state street came out and said their deposit base is over 100%. they have to increase what they're paying their customers by more than 25 basis points i've actually never heard of such a thing in the history of banking. >> would you be short the banks at this point? >> the problem with shorting the banks is they're still cheap what happened in earnings season is it want a disaster and i think people thought they would cover -- the stocks were bad the other thing is that things like commercial real estate and other types of commercial stuff, it doesn't implode overnight it has a long life before things start to get bad so when it gets bad, the regional banks could have problems but that could be six, nine years from now.

>> we all love your optimism is there one thing you worry about? >> the one thing is the fed has raised rates a lot it could have a negative impact on the economy but there's no data to support it at this time. >> where are you on big tech this. >> as long as rates don't go up so much, people won't care it's expensive. it's very dynamic. a.i. and chatgpt is very important. >> overhyped or not? >> i can't say at this point nothing goes up in a straight line i'm sure there will be a correction at some point i don't think it's overhyped the bigger issue for me is that at this point chatgpt only benefits a handful of very, very large companies. what will be interesting is to see if it broadens out to

middle-size companies. >> do you think our bond market reacts to things that aren't necessarily just domestic? a lot of people, be china -- >> i think it only reacts to domestic i don't think the bond market is saying the fed will cut rates. that's gone. but they don't believe the fed is going to raise rates that much and it seems to be reinforced every time powell has a press conference every time he wants to be hawkish, for some reason he comes off dovish he can't help himself. >> say they go off another 75 basis points, they're way out of whack for where the short should be >> it would be more negative than it's ever been and people would focus on it and that's going to have a negative impact on the economy >> but it could happen >> of course, which would be

nice for people out there who have cash. >> i thought maybe it was you could say, oh, well, the rest of the world has been slow to raise. >> well, if you look at the eu, they seem to be backing off. i can't speak about china but at this point the feds seem to be slowing all over the world >> since we keep talking about elon elon musk every day, you had a short stake in tesla >> that was a mistake. >> if you had to have a position today what would it be >> the hardest thing i have found over the year is trying to short cult stocks or meme stocks >> tesla is not a meme stock >> you'd have to say it's shocking how much they've cut prizes they focus on volume until they

report and then they say margins are really going down and other people are cutting prices, too the bull story on tesla is not as great as it was but it's still very hard to short because of the cultish aspect of the company. >> steve, thanks for coming in don't go anywhere. we're not kicking you out of here we're saying thank you for the -- he wants to get out of here >> coming up, new jersey taking the federal government to court for charging new tolls and robert kaplan will join us on this week's fed decision. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc she wants and saves on every one. and with an incredible new iphone on us, no wonder sadie is celebrating. introducing myplan.

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you guys have no idea how good you've got it. how old are you? like, 80? back in my day, it was scary stories and flashlights. we don't get scared. oh, really? mom can see your search history. that's what i thought. introducing the next generation 10g network. only from xfinity. new jersey filing a lawsuit to try to stop new york from charging big tolls to get into midtown manhattan. the state is suing the federal highway administration over

approval of new york's congested pricing scheme it could charge you for going through the tunnel supporters say it would alleviate traffic and save money for mass transit challengers say it violates environmen environmental laws congressman gottheimer, new york state is planning to have this put into effect i would say as early as the spring. the lawsuit that new jersey has brought goes after not the nta in this case but the federal government >> basically the mta -- the mta

has to actually submit something to the government saying here's our application. in the report, the mta admitted their congestion tax will have a huge impact adding cancer risks and despite the fact it literally admits it's going to give off ftoxic fumes.

>> who knows what the courts will eventually rule but this is going to take a little longer. >> well, really, it should take longer this is a significant impact how could they say go ahead to the proposal put aside the fact the $23 day, $5,000 a year new congestion tax you're putting on nurses and workers and electricians who have to commute into new york on top of what they already pay and this is a tax put on for the environment. it has to have a full review the mta and new york knows what they're doing will actually hurt to the environment they've already decided to commit to the bronx $130 million for a new asthma center and mitigation if this goes ahead but zero for jersey.

this is just a big cash grab for the mismanaged mta >> i know staten island is now joining in this lawsuit. they say they're going to go after the mta directly why didn't new jersey do that? >> well, the governor of jersey said last week that that's on the table. they're waiting for the mta to set the price of what this congestion tax will be they haven't put the formal price out there. they're meeting right now in a private session of just mta folks to decide what that tax should be on jersey and others from the outer boroughs and staten island and other places >> i don't understand why new york doesn't understand why this could be detrimental to new york

there's still 75% of the pre-covid levels who used to take the busses to new jersey have not returned. the people who are coming back to work here, spending more time here are coming by cars. what happens if those people say forget it, we're not coming back anymore? >> you're spot on. this is why the manhattan chamber of commerce and broadway is against this. if you're trying to get people back to work and shopping in new york from new jersey, the idea you whack them with another $23 to make the trip $17 to take the bridge, $23 for this new congestion tax, plus parking plus gas, you're talking about a hundred bucks before you even get a cup of coffee >> congressman, i'm sympathetic, though i struggle -- i'm a new yorker, i live in manhattan and i'm struggling with what to do long term about both the traffic issue and the economics of

public transport, right. i mean, that is the ultimate question the fundamental question is how do you deal with the economics of it? how do you deal with the traffic and deal with all of these things so i am also sympathetic i want to have as many people in the city as possible from an economic perspective i also understand if you're from jersey and you want to come to the city, it's better to make it cheaper rather than more expensive but in certain cases maybe you need to make it more expensive. what would you do if you were the governor of new york or perhaps the mayor of new york city and what you think the right answer is for everybody? >> well, you're totally right that we need to inves more in mass transit, which i think is the right point here i fought they hard to write and pass the infrastructure bill in congress the federal government gives $2 billion a year to the mta to help support mass transit and i think that's the right thing to do to support it

but the mta is a mismanaged mess a judge called it anorgy of overtime fix the problem. handle your own problems new jersey we're trying to invest in our mass transit we don't look to new york and say you have a problem, fix it two, new york has a huge budget annually they just gave $600 million or more to build a stadium. maybe take that money and invest in mass transit. so i'd clean up my own mess. in terms of mass transit in jersey, we just don't have all the options that you'd have for mass transit right now we're building them out. but right now a nurse has to commute in the morning there are few options now because traffic is down. if you're the restaurant worker,

an uber driver, you have to drive. turn and and whacking those people with nothing more than a big cash grab from the mta to solve their problems isn't the answer >> and this is not something where they've asked for input from anybody else. the traffic review board doesn't have anybody reviewing it and staten island is furious because they don't have the few options to try and get in. >> zero input from new jersey if they care about mass transit, wouldn't they give a nickel to new jersey mass transit? >> they're giving some back to other new york transit options like bringing people on trains down from upstate new york i think it's just probably the way it's been done without any input from anybody else that is, taxation without representation once again >> exactly it's a cash grab that's all it is from a mismanaged mta that needed the

cash and said we'll stick it to those people over there. >> but what do you do with the traffic part i agree with the economics you're right the mta has been horribly mismanaged in new york you could reallocate the dollars. you they you know why they wanted to put that buffalo stadium, they're so worried that buffalo itself will fall to pieces i'm not disagreeing that, look, i'd prefer the money go to the mta but how do you deal with all of it? >> london does congestion pricing and they only do it during peak hours. it seems like it's tricky if somebody is doing overnight. i'm not going to pay this, the company is going to pay this so it's no the about what i'm going to pay >> and i assume the governor would have the same problem if it was peak hours or not peak hours. >> are you saying you'd be okay if this was not all the time

>> build it out better, get the gate way trains on a belt, which is happening you can't add more trains from new jersey and new york, the tunnel can't handle it invest in mass transit, build it out and look at options down the road right now you're just sticking it to hard working folks. that's $5,000 a year extra if you're a hard working nurse or electrician, you ever don't have another -- that's $8,000 a year that you're suddenly getting lopped off in addition to what you're already paying to go over the g.w. bridge. the workers in new jersey get $2 billion in income tax to go work in new york. this is completely outrageous. it's an environmental disaster

and start over >> where's my salt deduction >> we passed it, joe you got to call republican friends in the congress right now, ask, beg them, please >> you promised me and here i saturday waiting, waiting, waiting. >> we got it done, joe help me get it done now. >> all rhtig, i'll make some calls. "squawk box" will be right back.

a big weekend at the box office with the surprise phenomenon which did you see? >> i saw the barbie movie. i couldn't pull off a double feature. i saw "barbie" yesterday and i'll see "oppenheimer" next weekend. and christopher nolan's r-rated story yielded one of the biggest box office weekends ever, driving the box office up 22% from last year's weekend and reversing the decline in the summer box office from last year according to tom score a big win for warner brothers, discovery and mattel, barbie grossed about 50% higher than

expectations and delivering warner brothers its eighth biggest opening weekend ever meanwhile universal's oppenheimer grossed 85 million, a number considered far out of reach for an r-rated drama that runs three hours both films benefited from rave audience reviews and they benefited by buying tickets for both it was the first time so many people went to the theater since 2019 without the draw of superstars or star wars. the combination of these films created a kind of water cooler

moment and demonstrated people will show up for movies based on fresh ideas. joe, what movie did you see? >> i saw "oppenheimer. it started at 9 p.m. so do the math >> at least it wasn't too late last night would you see "barbie" or are you going to skip out on that one? no pink for you? >> i'd have to be coerced and the whole family would have to say you have to stay home alone or come with us. i want to see "mission impossible" still. did you see that yet, julia? i thought it was great i love going to movies it's fun to be back. >> do you eat popcorn with the good fake butter and salt? >> i'm definitely a movie theater popcorn person >> do you actually take salt back to the seat with you in a

napkin >> no. that seems like too much >> i have a friend who does that >> what? >> i take salt in a napkin because when i'm halfway done there's not enough salt and i put -- >> do you ever sneak your own candy into the movie theater >> yes do you ever sneak your own pizza in >> i never snuck my own pizza in >> i think domino's is up because of our conversation about pizza. domino's is up $6. >> it's because of us. we totally endorse domino's, pizza in general, it's the greatest food ever after tacos >> coming up, the fed has one more hike to go? we'll hear why that might be misguided and coming up is

robert kaplan. you're watching cnbc i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body

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the fed meeting starts tomorrow to decide on interest rates. many on the streets see one more rake hike coming but steve liesman says not so fast hey, steve >> trigger warning

some high level math coming your way. future markets have priced in a rate hike but is skeptical about a second hike. and we'll listen to guidance from the chairman on wednesday there's a reason to think that second hike could happen and you can see it if you look at what we call the real or inflation adjusted funds rate. how do you calculate this number it's a matter of debate. one way is to use one year ahead inflation expectations that yields a real number of 1.3% you see that the current nominal rate minus inflation expectations gives you the reral rate. >> are you with me, becky? >> yup >> are you >> yup >> awesome where does the average fed official want the real rate to be for that we look at their own forecast and use their outlook for inflation and the funds rate

it shows they have more work to do by their own reckoning. 2.4% this year, declines to 2.1 next year, the future race is 0.5% jeff lacquer tells me they need a credible rise in the real rate to get inflation down. they can hike the nominal funds rate or get a nafall in the inflation rate their own forecast, he's half coming from a decline in inflation, the other half from the funds rate, what's that other half 50 basis points that's house of representatives

y hikes. guess what it was in the advance with computers -- >> they told me no cross talk. >> you no know what you're doing cross talking. >> joining us is the co-chair of draper richard kaplan foundation what's bothered me for a while is knowing that the fed's tool is just sort of not the greatest way to try to control inflation. it goes against what we want, which is a strong economy and low unemployment if i was convinced that inflation was coming down, i wouldn't hike anymore. this must be all about inflation. i just don't want to think that the fed sees strong employment and strong economic numbers and says we have more work to do just because we haven't really affected what we were trying to do all along, which was to slow the economy.

that's no good reason to keep going. they must be convinced that the core is still too hot and staying too hot. >> the core measure is still too high if it wasn't for the remaining arpa money that's been spent, the infrastructure act leading to new projects i think the fed would be done. >> inflation reduction act is causing inflation? >> in the long run it will help inflation. in the short run it is increasing demand for goods, services and workers and my own view is that it will likely be done now, the economy would be weaker anything interest rate sensitive is very week, goods are week, the consumer is resilient and i think the x factor in all of this is the government spending

that is still helping to prop up the service sector and it means inflation is likely to be sticky >> we're going to spend this money over a period of years so we're going to have this problem for years? >> so the white house has put out a map of the new manufacturing projects and infrastructure projects across the nation and you're seeing 30 or 40 projects spread across the country, each usually the largest infrastructure project in the history of the state. the $12 billion tunnel project here that was just announced, a in addition, there's still x hundred billion of unspent arpa money that went through the budget two years ago and locally in cities and towns across the country still hasn't been spent. >> none of that sound great. >> but just to follow up, the fed doesn't react to this. and it's been a problem -- part

of the thing that got them into the place they are right now is the failure to react to the fiscal spending in the front end. >> so the fed, which i always hated this term uses the term data dependent so when the extended shows up in the data, which it is showing up in the data, i'm a big fan of looking at drivers the fed, i've encouraged them do more work on the ground level on this spending, not only what's been announced but what's going to be announced because i think it will give you a sense of what to look at 6, 12 months ago and this will eventually run out i think your comments on the neutral rate -- i think the neutral rate isn't that high we have an aging society, decelerating workforce growth, productivity okay but not enough to make up for it and you could have a situation where if this money dries up -- when it does, won't happen this year or next

year, when it does dry up, i think you'll have a much more severe downturn. >> would you be really unhappy if the fed just stayed where we are right now for longer >> i think that is one approach but you're going to have to accept that inflation is going to stay sticky >> we -- if we go up 50 basis points it's not going to go sticky >> i i'd be a fan of a whole of government approach to fight inflation. if you're relying just on the fed to flight inflation, it's a tough bottle this is heresy to say this, produce more fossil fuels in the united states. legal immigration would help >> we're talking about supply side now, robert, and that's not like you you just mentioned about three supply side remedies >> those are structural changes that the fed doesn't have

control over they need help from other parts of the government. i think if the fed says we can handle this all by ourselves, you'd have rates a lot higher than they'd be otherwise small businesses are going to really struggle. i'd love to see. that's why it's such a paradox the way that the fed has to do things >> it is >> i'm hoping the thing coming down is -- >> inflation coming down that's entirely possible it's definitely one of the outcomes -- >> not according to -- >> i think what i used to say growing up russell versus chamberlain, they tend to neutralize each other, it's a basketball analogy >> don't date yourself >> i'm dating myself >> wow >> you're raising the fed funds rate but you've got this x factor in fiscal spending.

i think one is more blunt than the other. i'd like to see more of a fundamental approach. >> was wilt the best ever? >> i think russell was the best ever >> better than jordan? >> of course let's not even go there. of course. and lebron don't forget lebron. >> in terms of if you look at the numbers probably we got to go, though that was good, though, and honest and i do know -- i like that you said it heresy because it really is heresy, which is patently absurd steve liesman, i laughed, i cried, four stars, two thumbs up, it's amazing >>. >> tomorrow the fund survey. from the all america right to the fed fund survey. >> we'll be right back carl bass coming right up.

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up next, the u.s. and china battling it out over big tech. they told the biden administration they should study the impact and pause before implementing new restrictions. nikki haley was warning us about the perils of doing business with china do you have a different view about this idea about what the semiconductor ceos were telling the president? >> good morning, andrew. i think if you look back to the single largest crowning achievement the biden administration's foreign policy has been this outbound restriction or let's say the restrictions that were imposed october 7th of 2022. if you go back to the commerce department's edict from that day, if they believe that back from when there was a bipartisan consensus on chips and

semi-conductors, for them to go back now and poke holes in that policy, the whole thing could fall apart what you have see acting now is just lobbying money. it's the chips ceo chasing the dollars at the end of the chinese rainbow. in the end they aren't tasked with u.s. national security and protecting us. i think what's happening here is the chinese money and u.s. companies that do business in china is coming into k street and starting to potentially affect the administration. >> when you think about the other big issue, which is some people think that these companies, semiconductor companies, are effectively selling to companies and other companies and those chips are still making their way to china. i know you thought about this a lot. how would you hold chip companies responsible for that >> yeah. that's a great question, andrew. and i think when you even look to the sanctions on russia or

the restriction, we have outbound to russia or china, it's important to note when the treasuries implements these kind of restrictions, we have to have the follow-up. we have to have potential secondary sanctions and restrictions going on those that are helping contravene primary sanctions. so far we have been willing to do that. so i think it's why our sanctions on russia have fallen flat, it's why russia is selling oil above the imposed price cap and why to your point even in the initial october 7th edict, they had china and hong kong on there together and they specifically exclude mckao i think allowing work arounds, loopholes or allowing other

countries loopholes and we need people in the administration to impose restrictions and penalties. right now the consequences aren't out there i haven't seen any secondary sanctions or restrictions put on anyone >> i don't want to be polly annish concerns and national security concerns that we all probably -- not probably, but must have, but i also wonder whether the rhetoric that's coming out of the u.s. now, evenmore so than china, in terms of what's being said, is only raising the temperature, and whether there is any argument that you would make to cooling down that temperature. >> you know, i think that strength -- i think that peace through strength is key, and i think weakening, again, the crowning achievement of the biden administration's foreign policy establishment is only going to show that you can come in and create work-arounds with money, and so when you talk

about whether or not the rhetoric needs to be cooled down or not, don't listen to what china says and their government officials say. look at what they're doing i just gave -- i gave a talk at the hudson institute, a briefing a couple weeks ago, on how i believe whixi is preparing for . if you get out a white board and write facts on a white board, that kind of strategy of bowing down or weakening rhetoric to not upset china is the wrong path >> here's the thing i can't figure out kyle, you're a smart guy there's a lot of smart people around the hoop, politicians who hopefully are smart, ceos who have economic stakes in all of this who are -- who should be incentivized, and i would argue, insin viesed long-term to do the right thing. either you're right and china really is prepared to go to war, or all these other people are right, and they're not >> yeah, i mean, again, i look

at the facts if you look at just three years ago, they had 100 missile launch sites. now they have 140. they have, ten years ago, 15 years ago, they had 35 naval warships now they have 350. the build that china is showing you in the nuclear arms race and the warship arena are unprecedented in global -- in our history, and so i'm just giving you the facts, andrew, and whether you believe they're prepared or not to "go to war," it's clear if you listen to xi jinping since 2017, in every speech he's ever given, he's talking about reacquiring the taiwanese separatists. he's bringing the world to a very dark place. the people that have incentives to keep making money, it's akin to chuck prince saying, we're going to dance while the music's playing. i think those that are really interested, deeply, in national

security and the foreign policy establishment, they take you to a very different place than the private sector does, and in the end, i think that the writing is on the great wall, and we're going to see some more belligerence out of china, and i don't think any of our rhetoric is going to change or should change >> the writing is on the great wall kyle bass in london this morning, thank you >> thank you when we come back, we're going to talk markets as we count down to the opening bell on wall street the dow, right now, on a ten-day winning streak futures are pointing higher as stwe ay tuned "squawk box" will be right back.

little more than 30 minutes to the opening bell on wall street joining us now, global investment strategist at jpmorgan and managing partner and portfolio manager, also a cnbc contributor just looking quickly over your notes, the market withstood a lot and done pretty well, and you think that that has to do with the notion that maybe a soft landing is possible now, and that wasn't what we thought at the beginning of the year >> that's right. we do think that the soft landing probability has gone up, but that doesn't mean we're necessarily trying to stick our necks too far out when it comes to risk. we're still advocating more of a barbell positioning between defensive allocations like core fixed income but also looking

for ways to help investors rebuild their risk exposure in case the soft landing does play out and/or to build the portfolio they want to hold heading into the next cycle. >> are you more bullish than you were six, eight months ago i mean, maybe that should have been trying to figure out ways to do that six or eight months ago would have been a better time and get in at that point to take more risk >> look, we titled our year ahead outlook, weaker growth, stronger markets, when we started 2023, so this is kind of behavior that we have been encouraging amongst investors for the past six to seven months in terms of bullishness, i would describe it more as an evolution. for example, at the start of this year, we were really constructive on what was going on in europe because we viewed the region as being a couple of quarters behind what's been going on in the u.s., but now, given some of the shifts that we have seen, like the stabilization of risks in the united states and maybe some increasing risks in europe, we're starting to focus more on

some domestic ideas that we view as attractively valued like mid caps or a potential broadening out of the large cap rally by trades on the equal weighted s&p 500. >> do you think -- are you in the recession camp or soft landing camp at this point >> in the soft landing camp, but i think take it with a grain of salt i think earnings are going to bottom probably this quarter but you're going to have to look for companies that have earnings growth and also can grow their multiple we've already had the multiple expansion on the large cap tech stocks so the opportunities are going to be in health care, select financials, select industrials, parts of the market that really have not taken advantage of the pent-up demand we've seen for stocks. >> what would that indicate if you were to -- if someone said, i have to invest, sarat, and you think there's going to be a soft landing, what should i buy >> i think at this point, look at the large cap financials,

jpmorgan, morgan stanley i would look at some of the health care stocks you saw j&j last week also do well so -- and then select industrials in there as well those are the ones that have really lagged the party. i would be careful on tech look at some of the ones that haven't done well, maybe qualcomm i think there's definitely opportunity there. and then also commodities and energy energy earnings going to be down over 40% year on year. very solid company, strong balance sheets and great dividends so i think there's definitely opportunity in the market there are 493 other stocks out there plus more, so opportunities there if there's a soft landing, and even if there isn't, you want margin of safety, joe. you want to make sure that when we get these bumps and maybe the fed raises more than it's supposed to, you have some margin of safety in these stocks >> okay, great elyse, we got to go. i was going to ask you what you thought of some of sarat's thoughts elyse, thank you, and sarat seth

if we were to end here, that would be 11 straight days for the dow. it's been quite a run, the biggest run since 2017 the nasdaq and the s&p both indicated higher as well as far as the yield curve, maybe a little bit higher yield. no, actually, lower. 3.8% and then 4.8%, and then bitcoin is down about 4% at 29 and change join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is coming up right now ♪ good monday morning, everybody, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm david faber with jim cramer live from most nine at the new york stock exchange carl has the morning off let's give you a look at futures. we get ready to begin trading one half hour from now and it appears we're going to have a higher open. doesn't mean much, of course, as our viewers well know. it can change quickly. road map starts with a big nam