no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen with frank holland live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange. setting the agenda today, starboard value's jeff smith is here his new stake in company algonquin and the actor investor climate. and the ceo of cleveland-cliffs, the stock moving higher on the back of a strong beat, but worry remains

on a drop-off in steel prices. later, the mber chair on what to expect from the fed. that's the committee that officially declares if we're in recession. why he is not necessarily buying the recession narrative. we'll start with the markets ahead of tomorrow's fed decision the dow is at the highest level since 2017 and looking to add to its 11-day win streak. the next guest says the economy is out of the wood as liquidity is the issue joining us is jeff solomon what are you worried about on the liquidity front? good morning to you. >> good morning to you listen, i think the market's had an incredible rally but that's because we had this major -- two major issues with the budget crisis and the regional bank crisis so, any time you have anything that happens to the downside, you're going to see a rally. i just think when you look at some of the challenges in terms of where liquidity is in the

marketplace, certainly in credit, we're not quite seeing the flow of liquidity. and i think last time i was here, i talked about the fact there would be a dampening of lending and things like that in the marketplace. then though credit spreads have tightened, i would like to see capital start to flow a little more i would like to see deals start to get done before you can declare that, you know, we're sort of beyond the last crisis >> all of that is supposed to happen with the fed raising rates. it hasn't been as bad as it could have been with more than 500-basis-point tightening in fed policy in a year and a half. >> we were long overdue for that we're still going through an adjustment period here i applaud the fed with the speed of which they've done it i would expect there to be possibly be more disruption. >> that's what i'm saying. >> the regional bank crisis was a disruption but it wasn't nearly as bad as it could have been we still need to see how things will play out in the real estate market that's a slow rolling issue

that's going to play out over the next few years i think the next meaningful inflection point the market has to look at is what's going to happen with the budget -- the budget negotiations in the fall. that's really -- that's why i think markets have done incredible any time we're on an 11-day win streak, back to all-time highs, you need to be more skeptical that we're completely out of the woods. i will just say it feels today like -- unlike the last time i was here aed that of the budget deal -- or the debt ceiling deal, feels a lot better ipos are starting to happen again. we're seeing follow-on opportunities and people are using this window as a chance to access capital. >> in the meantime, obviously we're expecting a rate hike tomorrow what's your view on the rest of the year you say the next big inflection point are deflection one more hike, is that in danger of creating some wobbliness in

the market >> i think the market has pretty well got its head around this idea the fed is going to do whatever it can to knock inflation out. eradicate it, if you can and nothing like a great inflation scare to remind people how bad that can be. the market's got its head around the fact there's one, maybe two, but the fed will also take a look, even though it's independent, arguably, independent, it will take a look at what happens with fiscal policy this is something i think in the bernanke years we saw a lot. when janet yellen we saw a lot the fed waiting to see how fiscal policy was going to play out as potential stimulus or contraction -- >> we have the ecb and bank of japan as well. >> i think the fed focuses primarily on where we are in the u.s. economy it will take a look at -- if there's going to be a protracted budget debate and government shutdown, what will that mean and what can the fed be doing to ensure there's more stability in the markets during that period of time? this is something, again, you

rip it out of the playbook we saw from bernanke and predecessors. >> they'll never admit that. that's what they're watching. >> they're not supposed to. >> you start off saying liquidity, i would like to see more deals one of my takeaways from the bank earnings is there's increasing excitement around pentup demand and potential green chutes for deals starting in early 2022. early it from james gorman and david solomon of goldman sachs. >> it will be selective. everything kind of shut down during the regional banking crisis and then the one-two punch where everyone had to see how debt it would clear on the debt ceiling crisis. we're talking to a number of sponsors thinking about launching post labor day they're taking their best assets and beginning to turn them over. those are the kind of things we're starting to see. we do expect to see a pickup in deal activity, m&a activity. we focus mainly on the middle

market we'll see increased activity coming into the back half of the year. >> you focus a lot on biotech, pharma. >> we do >> what is demand going to be like for deals there >> waiting for the ftc >> we'll see how that plays out. what's interesting to us in the middle market and lower middle market side, we're seeing the clean-up that needed to happen in biotech a lot of these companies that went public, the science didn't work, they're sitting on piles of cash, a lot of companies, private companies are saying, do i go public through an ipo or do reverse mergers? we're seeing a bunch of that stuff starting to happen we're deeply involved in a number of those situations i think that's really healthy to clean out the underbrush in that area we just did the largest biotech offering in history of follow-on offerings of biotech that should give you an idea there's a lot of capital here. one of the things that's interesting, even though liquidity is still concerned, people tend to forget the

earnings capability, the rally in the market, the yield on fixed income there's so much cash flow that gets generated that ultimately needs to be put back to work again even if there's not new inflows. i like to bear that thesis out a bit but it certainly feels like liquidity is -- could get better here >> how, if at all, has your perspective changed since your company was bought by ameritrade in canada, part of this retail trading company? >> well, look, actually, td ameritrade was sold to schwab. so, to be fair, we're focused much more on the institutional side of the market and what i will say is td bank group, one of the largest banks in the world, what we've been able to see, it just added to my peripheral vision. i have a much better handle on fixed income market than i used to from just looking at the

equity market. i would say we have a better global view. i certainly am spending more time on north america more broadly than just in the u.s and what will i say the cross-border activity between u.s. and canada, the opportunities are far greater. as we look at the combination of our two businesses, the things we're able to do, already starting to see meaningful collaboration between the organizations as we build new securities going forward i'm really excited about it. i think it's honestly -- it's better than i thought it was going to be. >> spending a lot more time up north. >> yeah, yeah. my grandmother is from canada. i was at the calgary stampede. so, plenty of stuff to do in canada, which we love. >> thank you, jeff thank you for clarifying, td bank jeff solomon, thank you. still to come, the ceo of cleveland-cliffs, out with results. up big today can the stock be a beneficiary of investor shift away from

growth we will discuss. we have a big interview with starboard's jeff smith, the activist investor breaking down some of his newest investments his ongoing stake in salesforce and the future of activision "squawk on the street" will be right back dow is hanging on to a small gain s&p is doing a little better we'll be right back.

cleveland-cliffs seeing a boost, up more than 6% after reporting a revenue beat for the fourth quarter seeing steel shipments thanks to an auto industry turn-around net profit fell due to the average price dropping more than 15% year over year joining us in a first on cnbc interview, ceo lourenco goncalves. thanks for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> auto sales were a big driver for the quarter but that was on record auto shipments. do you see more upside when it comes to auto business than shipments in the sending half of the year >> we do it's second to none here in the united states. and everything we are doing is starting to pay off. as we showed in q2 and compares with the results

from last year, apples and bananas. our growth in terms of profitability against q1, it's amazing, from the profitability standpoint, sales standpoint, all metrics you can use. >> your shipments went up 15% but the price went down 15% at the same time. what's putting pressure on price when you're seeing more demand >> price is going up sequentially from q1 when you compare last year, we're comparing a year that people were not talking about recession on a daily basis this yearwe have been plagued by this constant conversation about not if but when the recession would hit. now reality is sinking in and the softer landing is a lot more

of the reality than the recession people were talking pretty much every day on tv. >> a good point. obviously, the thoughts of recession eased up a bit we're seeing more bullish sentiment. at the same time you still saw, i would imagine, less demand from china, also less autos being made i understand there was a sequential increase, but still year over year, double digits. >> well, you're very negative, frank. let's talk about the reality a little bit the industry is having their best year since covid. supply of automotives in this country. we are enjoying their improvement more than anyone else, so covid was a big wake-up call for the automotive industry supply chains that were all tied to important stuff changed a

lot. so now they are bringing things back when they bring manufacturing back to the united states, cleveland-cliffs is a player, a partner to work with. >> gm also raids good answer an optimistic sign for you about a quarter of sales goes into infrastructure and manufacturing. a lot of that tied to some of the iijj infrastructure bill we are seeing roll out. how steady is that revenue going to be? we've talked to companies that say it can be lumpy at times. >> actually, it has been lumpy you're right about that. more recently we're starting to see a real constant inflow of orders on some portions of the infrastructure bill and inflation reduction act that are really starting to shine i will call one solar. solar energy is starting to show a great promise in terms of

demand we are seeing the orders it's all about our galvanized steel. and this is actually very exciting right now. >> okay. cleveland-cliffs shares up more than 6%. i have to work on my optimism and not being so negative. we appreciate -- >> you do. you absolutely need to do that. >> thank you i'll definitely put some work in on that. >> that was nothing compared to how he spoke to the analyst. >> i do remember that. that's why i'm like, let me take a step back. three red flags for tech as we get ready for reports from alphabet, microsoft and snap tonight. that's coming up on "techcheck." don't miss an interview with starboard's jeff smith we're talking the latest on his stake in salesforce, revealing that position last october the stock's up 50% since then. back in two moments.

this is your moment. critics declare oppenheimer is magnificent. the new york times calls it staggering. it's utterly enthralling and one of the best movies of the century. tech heavy weights alphabet and microsoft reporting earnings after the close and first to show investors if the hype

around a.i. is actually justified. that's the focus of today's "techcheck" with deirdre bosa. >> frank, we know the case for mega cap cap pristine balance sheet, wide moats, and greater concentration in a handful of names and raises the stake this is week because even a wobble from any of them, that could shake the whole market just in case i wanted to use this time to highlight some potential red flags. red flag one would be tech's mass outperformance in the first half tech is trading at a 54% premium to the market. that's its highest level in 45 years other than the dotcom bubble compare it to its historical average premium of just 26%. it's not like the fundamentals have boosted valuations. five of the six largest mega caps have had negative earnings revisions over the last year and all of tech's relative outperformance this year has come from multiple expansion

in other words, the stock price is going up faster than the fundamentals red flag two, the generative hype cycle investors have moved into the show me the money era. tech may have to justify this rally with actual tangible a.i.-driven revenue and earnings even microsoft, which got investors excited about that $30 a month a.i. subscription, it will have to sell those subscriptions against a slower macro back drop where companies are trying to cap their a.i. spending the third red flag, that is cloud outlook and capex. growth has been decelerating for all the big cloud players. investors are looking for signs it's bottomed out or is bottoming. there's a new worry this quarter and that is capex. bernstein writers, all those nvidia gpus have to be going somewhere. guys, i'm wondering what your previous guest would think about this segment what a debbie downer but we have to tell the folks about the red flags. >> he would call you out for

being too negative i think your point is well taken. the setup has been very bullish. the expectations are high. the analysts are still upgrading these names. meta got an upgrade yesterday ahead of results you said nvidia beat already high expectations. microsoft continues to surprise us, including this announcement this week on charging for a.i. it does feel like there still could be upside depending on how these businesses are thinking about monetizing this trend. >> it also depends on how much runway, right, the investors want to give them. yes, the excitement is still there and the fact that microsoft could charge $30 a user a month that could lead to billions and billions of dollars in more revenue, but that's further off. are we in this era where investors want to see this now they want tangible results we're not going to get that from microsoft. that's still some time in the future is anyone going to be able to deliver that other than nvidia even if you look at five-year

earnings, it's not that far off from the historical average. so, it does beg the question, where is it coming from? again, not everything has to make sense we've seen even the speculative stocks in tech run up this year. it may just be momentum hype cycle continuing >> yeah. i think also the question on how much the cloud or i.t. spending environment is slowing to the macro concerns, too. it's been hard to figure out deirdre, thank you the chair of the national bureau of economic research is with us next is he expecting one more and done from the fed tomorrow or is the market in for a surprise watching general electric more than doubling over the past 12 months. this morning reporting an earnings beat and raising outlook. the stock now at a five-year high shares up more than 5.5% right now. don't go away. (vo) it's time to switch to verizon. sadie did. and now she has myplan. the first unlimited plan that lets her choose exactly what goes in it.

now she gets to pick only the perks she wants and saves on every one. and with an incredible new iphone on us, no wonder sadie is celebrating. introducing myplan. get exactly what you want. only pay for what you need. act now and get iphone 14 pro on us when you switch. it's your verizon. circulon with scratchdefense. built from three layers of nonstick to withstand over 350,000 metal utensil scrapes in laboratory testing.

130 times longer-lasting than the competition. get free shipping at circulon.com

with the fed decision due tomorrow, risk of recession is a major focus for investors. the imf chief economist joined last hour to discuss whether he thought a soft landing is possible >> we see a slowdown of growth to 1% next year. it's fairly weak

it's fairly vulnerable as well a few shocks might knock off that path, so there's a narrow path to avoid a recession if you want in the u.s., but we still think it's doable. >> joining us is nber chair john lipcy, the organization officially responsible for declaring a recession here in the u.s. john, thanks for being here. >> happy to be here. >> rear hearing comments from the imf earlier, joined sara you call yourself an inflation optimist what does that mean that we'll likely have a rate hike tomorrow and maybe even another one later this year? >> well, inflation -- i define inflation optimism in the current context as suggesting that the surge in inflation we experienced earlier was mostly a reflection of supply constrictions rather than some outsize demand growth. after all, when we take a look at where the economy is today in

terms of output and employment, relative to where we thought it would be before the pandemic hit, we're about on track. before the pandemic, there wasn't a sense that the economy was out of balance in an inflationary or recession way, so it's not obvious today. in other words, there's good reason to think that inflation is going to keep moderating, continue moderating, even without further policy action. >> that's fair enough. a lot of people think maybe the data we're seeing in the economy, whether it's in the u.s. or globally, may be lagging the action that's actually happening. earlier today i spoke to the incoming co-ceo of oak tree and he believes later this year we'll see interest rate sensitive industries and also cyclical industries start to fall under the pressure of higher cost of capital. >> for sure. fed policy is restrictive by their own admission and by every

reasonable measure it's not severely restrictive and this is going to affect principally the intersensitive sectors, such as housing and construction at the same time, household balance sheets are in pretty good shape, incomes are growing. the fiscal stance is going to continue to be supported as there's still spending left that will be helping the economy from earlier measures there are good reasons to think this economy could avoid a recession, but there are also good reasons to think that growth is going to be slow >> how do you interpret the fact that the yield curve has inverted 100 basis points for the third time in the last year or so, the fact that leading economic indicators have shown several months that typically correspond and predate a recession, indicators like that which the historians look at and say, that's recession?

>> well, that's -- if you remember, typically when the yield curve is inverted, it's because the fed has sought to drive the economy down from a situation in which there was excess demand. as i just suggested, if we look from a pre-pandemic perspective, it's not obvious that the economy is so out of balance on the other hand, the fed is -- has restrictive policies and that has caused the inversion as it appears investors are somewhat more optimistic about the outlook for inflation. >> john, you're very optimistic but even you would admit your base case has a narrow path to that soft landing. have you factored in a possible u.p.s. strike, some other labor negotiations going on around the country right now that is going to increase the cost of labor and increase the cost of goods and that u.p.s. strike possibly creating another shock to supply and another shock to the supply chain? >> well, i wouldn't

overemphasize the action even of an important company like u.p.s. obviously there are risks that could create a more severe outlook for the economy, but this idea that there's a narrow path assumes that somehow a recession is inevitable at this point and only take good luck to avoid it i would put it the other way around, but we'll see. >> if i was in the news conference tomorrow, one question i would ask powell, and i won't be, so i'll ask you, john, is that -- so he wants to see credible signs that inflation is moving down towards target, consistent signs it's moving down towards target do you have to see a more pronounced weakening labor market to see that >> no, i don't think that's obvious. clearly the growth rate and employment is going to slow

towards the underlying growth of the labor force itself but at the same time, i think look back before the pandemic. the unemployment rate was about where it is now and there was no perceived problem with excessive wage growth. so far i think it's hard to think -- or hard to demonstrat that wage growth to date has caused inflation rather than followed inflation so a lot will be determined by the outlook in the labor market, but it doesn't strike me as obvious that right now the unemployment rate is too low and the unemployment rate must go up to produce a convincing move towards the inflation target as i would say, most commentators and some officials have stated in very clearly. in other words, they want unemployment rate to go up in

order to hit the inflation target i don't think it's obviously necessary. >> john lipsky, thank you very much john lipsky from nber. >> thank you >> not a negative outlook. he's not in that camp. that's just me. >> it's important because he's the nber that's the official recession. time for a news update with leslie picker. >> hey, sara i'm leslie picker with your cnbc news update. lebron's son is recovering in the hospital after he suffered cardiac arrest during basketball practice at the university of southern california. he is no longer in the icu and is in stable condition. more backlash in israel over the government's controversial judicial overhaul measure. the israel medical association ordered doctors to strike for 24 hours around the nation except in jerusalem, which is the scene of escalating confrontations

labor leaders have threatened a wider strike right there. right there. he's about 20 yards in front of you. >> new video shows the moment an ohio family was reunited with their missing 4-year-old boy the boy disappeared while playing in his backyard. soon ohio state troopers were called in to search for him. a helicopter crew spotted him in a bean field and guided the search party to his location where he was found safe. what a happy ending to that story. back to you. >> yeah. wow. all on tape. leslie, thank you. after the break, the senate probing billionaire leon black's $158 million in payments to jeffrey epstein. details on that after the break. plus, watching our tech this morning. better than expected earnings overshadowed by the disclosure of pratt & whitney engines the stock now at a nine-month low. share down double digits

the airlines also down on this news as well much more "squawk on the street" congp aomt.mi uin men 's makinge get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

we're here today to set the record straight about dupuytren's contracture. surgery is not your only treatment option. people may think their contracture has to be severe to be treated, but it doesn't. visit findahandspecialist.com today to get started. your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. wax to "squawk on the street." the senate finance committee revealing in investigation to leon black robert frank with the details. robert

>> good morning. that senate finance committee sending a 16-page letter to leon black detailing black's tax strategies and payments to jeffrey epstein. the letter says the investigation, which has been ongoing for over a year is part of the committee's broader look at tax avoidance and evasion by the wealthy. saying black used a type of trust used a grat to avoid hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes grats are common among wealthy but saying black may have received improper payments from his specific trust the more explosive question raised in this question was over black's $158 million in payments to epstein for what black called tax and estate planning advice wyden calling the payments an extraordinary compensation scheme which involved amounts that far exceeded those paid to other professional advisers involved in your estate and tax

planning wyden saying black has refused to provide detailed answers to the trust or payment questions in a statement leon black's spokesperson saying he provided the committee with over 150 pages of personal tax information and that the letters, quote, attempt to smear mr. black by association with his former family office adviser is misguided and improper. spokesperson adding that the trust transactions were, quote, lawful in all respects, were conceived of, vetted and implemented by reputible tax advisers a lot of questions about the money flow between epstein and black. coming up on "squawk on the street," starboard's jeff smith is next. we are talking his current position in salesforce, the state of activist investing and if he has any other companies in his sights you will not want to miss this interview coming up in two minutes. much more "squawk on the street"

back after this. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back.

the street." activist investor starboard value has made a splash pushing for changes at salesforce. earlier this month the firm announced a 5% stake in canadian energy firm calling for the firm to reduce its gross leverage to energy standards five times, improve earnings 75 cents by the end of 2025 and other changes as well we'll talk about it.

joining me to update us on these moves and where he might be looking to invest next is starboard value ceo jeff smith here at the new york stock exchange welcome. good to see you. >> good to see you too, sara. >> the market's been up, excited about the end of the rate hikes, excited about a soft landing what does that environment mean to you in the way you operate and find targets is this a good environment, target rich? >> yeah. what we want more than anything are healthy markets. i think we're seeing healthy markets. you guys talk about it on cnbc all the time the market and the index is up dramatically but it's really driven by a subset of stocks up a lot and the rest of the market is a mix so, from our standpoint as stock pick er, this is a great stock picker's market. when you see companies perform and announce better than expected results, their stocks go up. when you see them disappoint, their stocks go down sometimes they go down a goods amount and dislocate obviously, it's not fun if you

own it and it dislocates for us, we're opportunistic about that if we see stocks come out with numbers or other announcements that dislocate them to the downside and we're looking at them, that can be a great opportunity for us so, this type of market is very healthy. and we are looking at many companies that we think could be really attractive. >> that you haven't announced yet? >> that we haven't announced yet. again, what we look at -- we look for companies that are really good businesses and where we can help them improve mostly on the operations side so, can we get them to perform better, have higher profit margins? if they're undervalued, underperforming, underearning, we can create extra value for share shareholders. >> one is alguaquan, which we don't talk about a lot on cnbc and which i think was your first forray into utilities. >> normally we look at companies to improve themselves on the operations side. this is a utility. utilities are great.

investors who love utilities love investing in those businesses for their yield if you were to look at a high level, it's over 5% dividend yield and their peers are at about 3% dividend yield. a big difference and you have to ask yourself, why is that? why are they trading so cheap? actually they're made up of two businesses they are a regulated utility and unregulated. >> water renewables -- >> in the water business there's unbelievable value water utility, which is unusual. we think there's extra upside beyond what we're talking about if they monetize the water utility as well, which we don't think they need to keep. in general, what's going on, they've kind of made the traditional utility investors a little more nervous. they went out and tried to do a large acquisition, which actually didn't happen, and their leverage is higher than their peers.

what's changed in the last year plus is that companies that have more leverage or having cash flow issues are getting punished this company has more leverage than its peers so, it's not -- it's not as investable for the traditional ulgs investors the good news is that's easy to fix. those unregulated assets they own are not being fully valued they're somewhat obfuscated, but they're hugely valuable. we believe they can go out, sell the unregulated business and use that -- those proceeds and they can pay down the debt to around -- as you mentioned, around market levels and they could actually buy back shares if they do that, they can end up with a potentially lower payout ratio than their peers which makes them safe. maybe even raise their dividend. and when you look at that you say, wow, if that were to happen, do i want to own a better utility because their

asset mix is better than their peers. it's greener, cleaner and has a water business do we want to own a better utility at five-plus percent dividend yield versus peer at three-plus percent i would think they do. >> what is management's attitude towards your proposal to spin out the utilities business >> so far it's been very, very constructive they announced already they're going to explore alternatives for the unregulated renewables business we seem to be going more along a similar path hopefully we can accelerate that and work constructively to create a lot of value for the benefit of shareholders. >> speaking of working constructively, we haven't talked about salesforce. you were the first, i believe, of the five activists to get into this stock last year. there's been a lot of progress are you satisfied? >> we love this company. we love this company when i came on cnbc and talked about salesforce, i talked about it being a company we never thought we would have an opportunity to be able to own. we still feel that way

we've developed a great relationship with the management team, a great relationship with mark as the ceo. very happy with how we're working together there's still more to be done. and i think they would agree so, if you go back - >> on margins? >> yeah, mostly on margins but on both. if you go back to when i came on air and talked about this, which i think was about nine months ago, we talked about in terms of rule of 40 math, meaning revenue growth plus profit margin. and when you compare them to their peers, they were at 37%, 38% and their peers were about 50%. a huge gap 1200 basis point gap. >> you always looked at oracle, right? >> yeah. and a few. when you compare them and look at it that way, the issue going on at the time is that the market expected their revenue growth to come down and if that were to happen, it would be something where they were worried. if the margins don't get better and revenue growth comes down, the market was concerned at that

point in time. we knew there was a huge opportunity, and to management's credit, when we sat down with them and talked with them about having to balance growth and profitability, having to be competitive for shareholders, they're competitive in their business they want to be number one and number two in every product line they have. we want them to be number one, strive to be number one in shareholder metrics. be the best performing operating metric company what they've done is pretty dramatic they've raised their margins by 800 basis points revenue growth did slow a little bit, which is -- was expected, but now they're kind of still at that 38%, 39% on rule of 40 math so there's still 1,000 basis points of opportunity. but we expect that they can get there. we think there's another 500 plus basis points of margin opportunity and another 500 basis points in growth the 10% growth rate should accelerate back up to 15%. we're very, very excited if they can do that, we think it's probably $15 a share in

free cash flow in the next couple of years. we think that means the stock should be over $300 a share. it's still undervalued we're -- as you can tell, we're excited. >> and you're excited. what i've heard is you are working very constructively with management there i do wonder, though, if you're expecting margin expansion, whether whether you're willing to tolerate pressure on margins because of the investment in ai, which this company is doing as are so many. >> there's enough room for them to be able to do both this is a company that before we got involved, and they weren't wrong, but they really didn't focus on bottom line profitability. they focused on their growth that's really what investors wanted now that they're focused on it, they took about $2 billion in cost out of the business there's room to be able to invest in growth and also to work on your profit margins. if you keep growing incremental margins in this business are tremendous we expect them to grow

>> what do you think of their ai strategy and how it could transform the company? >> none of us really know. ai is an enormous opportunity, an enormous opportunity for salesforce, enormous for a lot of different companies we're pretty excited about their opportunity. >> what about potential to -- and investors still talk about this eventually down the road separate slack or tableau. is it something that would be participate of your playbook >> i'm not so sure i think they fit in with the product suite. we would expect to integrate them more and allow them to be tools that keep everybody -- customers are unbelievably sticky, keeping them incredibly sticky is important. we would leave that up to management to make that decision from our standpoint that's not an area we're pushing. >> you still think undervalued $300 a share >> if you look at $15 in free cash flow and you easily get

over that. we think they are now focused on the right balance of growth and profitability. the management team seems to be moving in the right direction altogether the culture has embraced this. so we have a high degree of confidence >> are you buying into the ai hype cycle i know you're in splunk, trying to increase exposure there >> i don't think we're theme attic in that way. there's been a few technology advancements the last 20 plus years to do things like that the internet was one to start with and you keep going and maybe talk about cryptocurrency or block chain and you might talk about ai, and i'm sure there's others in between. i do believe technology will continue to advance. i believe it will do two things, make companies more efficient, increase demand for products for the companies that do it right we are excited you mentioned splunk, we love

splunk and think it's similar to salesforce just behind in their execution. salesforce was able to do this with marc benioff running the business splunk had to bring in a new ceo and a new management team, but it's a similar opportunity as a company that was not focused on profit margins but instead focused on growth. now they're focused on a balance of revenue growth and profitability. with that focus we think they can almost double their free cash flow per share in the next couple of years. >> harder to do, though, with both companies in an environment where we're not in recession, but there are concerns about cloud spending and i.t. budgets getting cut even with the excitement around ai >> we actually think it's the other way. we think it might be easier for them to do so you're in an environment where it's more acceptable in the market and in the country in general for there to be layoffs

and for you to hold the line these companies that are profitable can now focus on getting to the right size and the right scale and to put their human resources and human assets in the right place and take them away from other places even if that means other places need to be laid off. other environments that's harder to do. in this environment it's easier to rationalize the workforce they can grow into these businesses and can manage their profitability. >> i think of the restaurant space. we've talked about papa john's and the changes there, about darden and the changes you made there. i'm curious -- and i know you're stock picking -- but how the industry looks to you now. they went through a huge covid disruption, inflation, and whether there are good opportunities. >> we do think there are good opportunities in the restaurant space. i'm not ready to talk about it -- >> i'm trying.

>> we do think there are good opportunities. the restaurant space in general can be cheap and may have overreacted, and then you have to put it into two buckets you have to put it into the delivery carry out business. we've been in both with darden and with papa john's there's an interesting opportunity and we'll see. we'll see. again, we talked about it before it depends whether things come into our strike zone and we can pounce on it >> certainly winners and losers in this high interest rate environment. at least we got a hint thank you very much. jeff smith of starboard. getting some breaking news on u.p.s. frank, over to you you've been following this one closely. thanks a lot, sara u.p.s. and the teamsters have reached a tent tetch agreement impacting union workers nationwide so just look at the teamsters release. u.p.s. put $30 billion of new

money on the table throughout the length of this contract. we have reached out to u.p.s no response so far a few of the highlights from the release. existing full and part-time u.p.s. teamsters will get more per hour this year and up to $7.50 more per hour over the length of the contract one of the big issues was the pay for part-time workers. part-time workers bumped up to $21 per hour immediately more wage increases throughout the length of this contract that would impact full-time and part-time workers. the release highlights the u.p.s. delivery drivers among some of the highest paid in the nation shares of u.p.s. up more than 1.5% following this news, again, u.p.s. and the teamsters reaching a tentative contract. this impacts 340,000 union workers that work for u.p.s. shares of u.p.s. up over 1% right now. we continue to talk about the impact this could have had a $7 billion negative impact on the economy if there were a strike

that strike appears to have been averted. the contract with a tentative agreement. the deadline was july 31st, something we continue to watch shares of u.p.s. rising higher now, 2% higher after this tentative agreement where u.p.s. and the union, the teamsters agreed to broad wage increases across the board >> this is a sigh of relief in the overall economy, that we were worried about supply chain and inflation. >> a statement from some of the customers for u.p.s. before this deal was reached, companies like macy's saying they have ways to mitigate the impact as well as amazon frank, glad to have you here for that breaking news thank you for being here that's going to do it r fous courtney reagan and "the halftime report" on the other side of the break. those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just

sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back to "the halftime report. i'm courtney reagan in for scott wapner front and center this hour, a moment of truth for the rally as big tech earnings get under way. microsoft and alphabet kick things off a few hours from now. the investment committee is standing by to break down what is at stake for these critical reports. joining sus josh brown, jim lebenthal, stephanie link and jason snipe. a quick check on the market to see where things are as we await the key results after the bell we are in positive territory, although marginally so the nasdaq leading the way higher by