so, as we continue to track these earnings -- i don't know how much we're going to see, but it's worth asking. >> it makes the visa results that we've gotten after the bell, those shares are down now, important, as well along those lines. it's been a busy hour. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," after the bell earnings pls palooza, e this market is going ahead of a fed decision coming up. plus, shares of rtx dropping 13% on news of a manufacturing problem around some of its most popular jet engines. the fix and the fallout straight ahead. and later, luxury lag. shares of lvmh faltering in worries about a slowdown here in the states but will a rebound in asia, especially china, boost the bottom line in the months to come we'll debate that. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. full house here on the desk tonight.

we start off with that big night of earnings. alphabet, snap, visa, and microsoft. we have an a-team of reporters ready to dive in kate rogers, kate rooney and steve kovach all on deck, but we start off with deirdre bosa. >> melissa, investors are cheer i ing. google's longtime ceo is taking on a new role as president and chief investment officer, includes external and internal responsibilities she'll be engaged with policymakers to recognize the importance of technology on the investment side, she'll cover infrastructure, data centers, efforts to expand in the india region as for why now, she said that she has been a cfo for 14 years, eight years at google, so, she said it was time for a new challenge. margins were a positive story this quarter better than expected operating

leverage and less than a jump in terms of cap x that the street was expecting. she attributed that to moderating office and head count expansion and a delay in data center construction projects i asked her, and i feel like this is the question the street most concerned about, monetizing generative a.i she said i would have to wait until the analyst call, but melissa, i'm ready, i have the phone in my hand, i'll not miss it >> all right, you tell us when thank you. look at that stock reaction. it was good enough and then some >> yeah, it was. and on so many fronts, actually. just about every single front. so, the advertising strength, that was a positive and hopefully a read through for meta, as well. youtube, also a positive so, that's good. and cloud. cloud was good so, there's a lot to like here, the valuation isn't too demanding, guy -- >> that's the word >> couldn't think of it yesterday. the ruth thing, i don't know what quite to make of it remember when she got there, it

was -- she was very much celebrated and she turned out to be great it really was, we need a grownup in the room and we need someone who is not just going to spend, spend, spend they did spend for quite awhile, but i think they're going to spend on a.i., but also they may be able to reel it in on a.i. if they could become more efficient, which they should be able to. there's a lot to like here, but i always want to wait until the call, sometimes they throw something out at you i'm pleasantly surprised >> comments so far really exhibit just a carefulness when it comes to spending, prioritizing growth, but dur bly reengineering the cost space these are new worlds from big tech, but these are the kinds of worlds that investors want to hear right now >> they are, though i think in google's case, they want to hear that the core business is alive and well and the competitive threats are not things that are hurting their core search business and their core search business is crushing it if you look at then, cloud's up 28%, youtube up four after

contracting the last couple quarters, those other parts of the business that have been important parts of the story, i think are what bring you along and google is one of the stocks that really -- it's hard to say it's underperformed, but if you look at microsoft and apple, which went through the highs of two years ago, google is still around 145 is the target to make a fresh new high, so, relative underperformance part of the reason karen talked about the valuation. gives investors the ability to follow through on this, because the valuation is really of all of them makes the most sense >> they pushed out the construction of a data center, and you would think that, again, if you look at, think about the last seven months, you think about the introduction of chatgpt four, and for all intents and purposes, it felt like google was left flat-footed. so maybe some of that understood performance relative to microsoft has kind of come out right now with where the stock is i'm with karen i want to hear more on the call.

i want to hear what they think their ability to commercialize the products they're working on, gemini is going to be really important to them, and again, i -- you know, i said it last night, i don't think we're going to see really earnings growth from this sort of stuff, i don't think we're going to see it until the back half of next year, so, now, make no mistake about it, there is still pressure on that search business i mean, that's what all of these business models are kind of going for, too, so, the better it looks is the more incentive a lot of their competitors have, in my opinion. so, i'm not chasing this here, you know, i know you are probably long and you came in and that sort of thing, i would be surprised if you would be adding to it at this point, i'm just saying that to the crowd, before we have a better sense of what the outlook likes like for the back half of the year and i'm not sure they're going to give specific guidance >> i'm glad you mentioned the competition. we're going to get to microsoft in a moment. for some time, we've been talking about a.i., my have to soft versus alphabet, how behind it may be, we still have to hear about when they're going to

actually launch the search generative experience, which is maybe the equivalent of the co-pilot that microsoft talked about $30 a month. so, a lot of details we want to hear about growth in the future, but for right now, business is firing on all cylinders. >> i don't think they're as behind as people think at 20 times next year's numbers, with probably close to 22% eps growth, i think you are getting -- you want to be in the stock on the virtue of valuation alone and they're probably not that significantly behind microsoft. and margins, operating margins are approaching 30%. good for them. this is a really good quarter. i know what dan is saying, do you want to chase, potentially with the call -- valuation is compelling still this is something karen's talked about for awhile and that 148ish prior all-time high from november of 2021, i think on a benign tape, i mean, that's definitely in the cross hairs. >> let's get to microsoft now. the company beating on the top and bottom line. steve kovach is here to talk us inside the numbers >> yeah, shares falling,

melissa, despite the beats on the top and bottom lines revenue, $56.19 billion versus the 55 expected. that's up 8% eps, a beat, 269 versus the $2.55 expected but azure cloud growth reporting 26% growth there, the year ago quarter, that number was 40% intelligent cloud segment, $24 billion in revenue, up 15% from a year ago and some other key numbers to look at here search and news advertising revenue up 8% year on year we'll see if the new updates to the bing a.i. chat bot has anything to do with that and by the way, the collapse in pc demand is improving somewhat. windows licensing revenue was down 12%, and improvement we sa in the previous quarter. and the call kicks off at 5:30, we're expecting guidance during that call. so, pay attention, melissa >> yeah, steve, thank you.

steve kovach keep us posted on the conference call, as well. the context, as we just saw, 15-month high in microsoft ahead of earnings, tim >> it's almost like they dropped some of the spice from the earnings last week when you hear about the pricing on, you know, essentially the a.i.-based office platform at 30 bucks, and the presumption that the street has already been able to do. what the market did and it took it to fresh highs, or at least back to those old highs, is what it's done. the azure dynamics are things we're going to continue to hear about. so, you have a lot of saturation in cloud this is a place that -- i'm not saying that this is necessarily where microsoft is pulling its multiple it's clearly pulling its multiple right now on the software side. but to the extent that there's a lot of great news priced in here, and this is before we really seen follow through on some of these presumptions about a 30 buck a month, you know, office 365 >> so, the street was really expecting a pretty good number and they really hit it, and i'm actually surprised it's not down more i would have thought this bar was really -- -- the number we

expect have to be better than that to keep the rally going here hangs in there pretty well have to see what they say on the call >> and oftentimes they don't give us their outlook until after this show is off the air, so that's one reason to stay on cnbc.com but we won't have that to trade right here, probably >> texas instruments, which, their largest customer is apple, they reported after the close, they are talking about inventory levels, cancellations at elevated levels. i think that is interesting. i know you are focused on the semis, tim things are being said, aac technologies the other day, tsm last week, that don't bode that well, i mean, take out a lot of the excitement in and around, let's say some of the cloud revenue in related a.i. stuff. i mean, the numbers have come down for a lot of these companies and they're kind of beating those sorts of lowered bars here. for some of those people, we know who they are, and some of them are good friends of ours, ze and p earnings, they don't have a chance being near 22 0

flat -- here we are mid year, and it doesn't seem like that difficult of a stretch here. so, i don't know >> 31 times earnings you know, as i said, google is 20, microsoft is 31 now. again, slowing cloud growth. still robust at 26%. i think revenue growth of 8% year over year is not great for a company with this valuation. i'm not a hater here you are just trying to read the tea leaves i understand the excitement around the company we said it's probably one of the five most important companies in the world. i just think it's rich in this environment. we'll see what they say on the call >> you would think that they wouldn't release all the spiciness in your words, tim, ahead of the earnings call unless they knew there was more spiciness to be released on the earnings call. >> microsoft, of all the megacap tech company, has been the most confident company of all of them i don't think they're worried about anything, and they shouldn't be they, i don't know -- i wouldn't characterize google as having lagged badly

i don't think they have. i think we actually have no idea where google really sits, but there's no question, microsoft has been out there on the offensive, the presumption is they're going to take search, that they're going to take a lot of places that google has dominated, so -- yes, i feel like they could have dropped that news somewhere in here. it probably doesn't matter the stock's arguably been the best performing stock in the world for a long time, and this shouldn't surprise anyone. >> for more on the reports, let's bring in "fast money" friend gene munster, managing partner at deepwater asset management a lot to go through, gene. but i'm going to kick it off with a would you rather at this point. microsoft oral fa belt >> melissa, it's a pretty straightforward answer for me, it's google. advantage google here, not just because the valuation difference, but i think there's a lightyear gap between what microsoft has talked about versus what they've delivered and what they will deliver again, they're going to be a

critical part of the a.i. future, but just to put some context about what's going on, they're growing revenue about 7% a year during the pandemic, it was 18% a year and before the pandemic, in physical year '19, it was 14%. growth rate has decelerated, and so, this is all about what's going to happen relative to a.i. the price increase with -- related to co-pilot and office is significant that could have a 40% lever over a decade on their business but i think you just have to keep things in mind. there is a lot priced in when it comes to microsoft if youturn the page and think about google, this, with this would ill rather, google, on the other hand, there is a wall of worry with investors because o that 90% global market share and the potential impact, as we move to an a.i.-first single result, and if we look back at decade ago, the paradigm is related to what happened with desktop to mobile that was also a concern.

if we looked at b-roll of our conversations then, that's what investors were concerned about and ultimately, google made that jump i'm in the belief that google's 20-year lead in search is going to inform better a.i. decisions. we don't see it in the products today. i think they'll deliver on that, and i think that's going to be good for ad revenue and i think they're going to have persistent growth for the next five to ten years. >> how do you read the move of ruth into the role of cio? >> feels like they made a role for heifer she was tired of being cfo, so they just wanted her to stay around, wanted that continuity, and she's a class act and has some ties within washington and i think that can be helpful to the company. i think the bigger piece in terms of the personnel is j just -- spending more time, he's been hanging out in new zealand for a long time and now reported on campus for three, four days a week and to me, that, i think,

emphasizes their importance. and just to -- finally kind of put an underscore in terms of where google is related to a.i. this is not a new topic. microsoft, this is a topic in the last three quarters. google's been talking about this since 2017 as an a.i.-first company. we haven't seen it, but i suspect that all that data, we know data and models and a.i. is advantageous i think it's going to benefit their search revenue, and i think sergei is back involved with the company to see that forward. >> gene, it's tim. i agree with that, and i think google is often seen as the one that doesn't get credit for a lot of the places that maybe they've dominated and maybe that's the fear, and back to ruth, part of -- i think she unlocked a lot of value for the shares i ask you as an analyst, from a government perspective and trarns part si perspective, the ability for investors to get comfortable with the sum of the parts and the pieces is google cheap here i mean, they seem like they're still not given credit for where

they are, not just the core search business, which is the dominant one, but some of the other businesses, which are starting to really pick up momentum >> central question, really, to valuation, is next year's numbers. and are they going to be able to achieve those? and so, they just grew 4%, 5% this quarter next year, the street's looking for 11%. they've grown for two consecutive quarters if they can hit that 11% growth, this is cheap. this is about -- it's not as good, it was lower before, but you typically don't get a company that has a pole position in a massive market that trades relative to the other leaders. so, i think we're going to fast forward and continue to see this story move higher. >> gene, one last question, what's the read-through to amazon here? >> well, i was thinking a lot about aws and what we saw was just incredible growth, with google cloud and azure they basically didn't change

from the march quarter, in the high 20% and what we saw with aws last quarter at 16%, they gave kind of informal guidance to expect that to be more like 13% for the june quarter so, we're going to see this big gap. i think what it shows is, i think, aws is going to disappoint, but what's probably more important relative to the amazon stock is the commentary about aws. i think at this point, the june quarter is a throwaway for investors when it comes to aws, it's more about, where they going to say the bottom is in and the growth rate, we're going to start to move it higher if aws does not show improving revenue growth with the backdrop of cloud and a.i., that's a major problem. i suspect that they will talk about better growth in aws in the back happelf of this year. >> gene, great to see up and let us know if you hear anything from these conference calls. >> will do >> a phone on each ear gene munster we should note, not much movement in amazon we are seeing movement in shares of meta, up almost 2% at this

point. >> yeah, great question by karen on the aws if you think about the decelerating growth, has been obviously something with the story, and if you think about where they're exposed, it would be amazon with their cloud it's really small, medium-sized business you think about google and microsoft, where their exposure is larger. maybe that's a bit of a read, too, on, like, the different segments of different businesses so, amazon is going to be interesting next week. >> all right, and by the way, on that google move in the afterhours session, that's $22 billion in market cap. no $220 billion. missing a zero makes a big different. $220 billion that's roughly the size of a us coe. it added a cisco on the back of its earnings report. coming up, rtx having a rough day. worst drop since the start of the pandemic what rattled shares straight ahead. first, the earnings party rolls on the brutal afterhours section in snap and the muted reaction in earnings for visa. the breakdown when "fast money" rolls on

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welcome back to "fast

money. the earnings excitement continues. snap reporting after the bell. the social stock beating the street, but shares are tanking on weak forecast kate rogers is here with the latest >> snap reporti ing revenues wi a slight beat for the quarter. the first beat in the past five quarters daily active users a beat at 397 million in the quarter that's above the 394.9 million projected. snap says it has record active advertisers in the quarter, up more than 20% year on year and compares to this time last year it did offer formal guidance, which it has not, and that's why the stock is down. the company sees q-3 active users between 405 and 406 million. the company says forward visibility of advertising demand remains limited. q-3 revenues anticipated between $1.07 billion and $1.13 billion. and q-3 adjusted between

negative $50 million and negative $100 million. both numbers disappointing the street and the stock is lower by 17% in the afterhours back over to you >> all right, kate, thank you. kate rogers. dan nathan, you've traded this >> you know how i trade it when it gaps down 17% after each of the last five quarters. that is what the average has been, if you just bought it in the one or two -- like a three-day rule or whatever, it always fills the gap >> it's what they do >> it's totally bizarre. so, the way you deal with it, if it has a nine-handle on it i remember sitting in miami when we were there in january, it was down 20%, it had a nine handle -- >> miami >> a couple days couple day rule for dan. >> buy a little bit. ten bucks. >> i'm surprised am i the only one surprised it's down by this much? i get the guide was not great, this is a pretty significant move i'll say this. facebook is probably going to be up significantly on the back of this, and it should be but this is sort of sell first,

ask questions later right now. 18% on this quarter doesn't make a lot of sense to me >> i'm just reading some headlines coming about twitter, and elon musk. twitter, or x, now, is cutting ad prices. so, getting competitive here on the social front, which could mean more pain for the likes of a snap, potentially, and some of the others >> could mean for pain for them in the short-term, though. they're not really in a position to be that aggressive. unlike what maybe you could dispute, but what he's doing at tesla, he's cutting prices, too. are we calling it x, by the way? >> no. >> what do we do here, guy >> are you xing? >> that's a different thing altogether either way, i -- i think it's interesting to billion -- have a strategy, to be more aggressive, clearly they are remaking all kinds of things here, but i don't think they have the foundation to be that aggressive

>> all right, we'll keep track of this. meantime, let's get to svisa that reported. the key consumer name beating on the top and bottom lines kate rlee rooney has the report. >> the beat for visa was all about strong consumer spending consumer spending remained resilient and drove growth cross-border volume continued to be a tailwind, fueled by travel growth from the ongoing recovery and summer tourism cross border volume had been crushed during the pandemic. cross-border, meanwhile, was up 17% in the quarter, and cooling inflation, guys, is actually weighs on u.s. payments volume that was up 6%, which was roughly half of the growth of the international side of the payments volume. total payments volume, meanwhile, up 9% revenues grew 12% year over year payments volume did slow slightly from prior quarters and it was the smallest jump in

profit they've seen in two years. rosy consumer comments come after pretty similar sentiment we heard from american express on friday. they saw record spending mastercard reports thursday morning. melissa, back to you >> all right, kate, thank you. by the way, the cfo saying on the conference call just now, travel into the u.s. still hovering at 2019 levels. >> it's a perfectly good earnings cross-border, that's a nice margin business it's just -- this is a high 20s multiple stock, low 30s. it's a great brand, it's really valuable company, but it's priced like a great premium. so, it's not for me here >> our crack staff in ec will now put up a chart that shows where we were this time last year, which was an all-time high, about 248. we recently traded up there. so, the armchair technicians, i used that phrase last night, like myself, maybe we've topped out. it happened last summer. the quarter was fine it's just not valuation might get in the way in the

short-term >> i thought the numbers were really solid 12% revenue growth, 13% constant currency you can make an argument that structural strength with cyclical headwinds, but we haven't had the cyclical h headwinds. in other places, the consumer is alive and well the concerns you've had around visa are things that could be still hanging out there. i don't think the multiple it's terrible the eps resilience this year looks good op-x was lighter i like it here, but cyclical headwinds are still out there. coming up, not just earnings on the radar we have a fed decision tomorrow. one top market watcher warns we haven't seen the end of rate hikes. his case ahead. but first, investors leaving rtx on the tarmac. is this a buy the dip moment traders will weigh in next you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this. n terms.

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got more details on the x ad price cuts we mentioned earlier. steve has the latest >> yeah, melissa so, "the wall street journal" reporting that twitter or x is reducing ad prices by as much as 50% if the advertising books by the end of this month. also, they are cutting prices on video ads, as well obviously, the story here is brands have pretty much evacuated from twitter since elon musk's takeover over these concerns about brand safety. of course, they just rebranded yesterday to this x, causing more confusion among advertisers, potentially, so, they're trying to sweeten the pot. i've reached out to one of linda

yaccarino's deputies to confirm this report, the ceo, of course, and i'll let you know if we hear back we're seeing this from google results, there's a healthy ad market, it 's just not going to twitter. more headlines crossing. beginning august 7th, branded company accounts will go away, unless they spend $1,000 on ads, so, there's more incentive to advertise here on x, or twitter. >> it's funny, this is just -- this happened today, you're talking about advertisers leaving and kovach just said this, for trust and safety issues elon musk, who owns the thing, he can do whatever he wants, he's got 140 million followers lebron james' son collapses on a basketball court with cardiac arrest and the first thing elon is doing is pushing a covid conspiracy vaccine theory about causing cardiac arrest i mean, that's what he's doing on the platform. so, if you wonder why advertisers don't want to be

there, it's that reason. >> to be fair, we don't know that he's actually pushing that narrative. >> he tweeted it he tweeted it. >> okay, but he's an individual with a view. >> he's an individual with a view who owns the town square of the planet with 330 million, you know, monthly active users and he has the most -- and they -- we also know they have geared the algorithm to push his tweets, okay listen, advertising is down 50% and they're cutting ad rates by 50%. what does that say about their ad model >> i thought we were about to have a have at it. >> no, i get what you're saying. advertisers might not like the fact that he has these views and that, you know, his views are being pushed on this platform. >> correct >> that was an example today >> okay. shares of rtx formally known as raytheon plunging 10% after the company disclosed a manufacturing issue. the stock seeing its worst day since march of 2020.

phil lebeau spoke with rtx's ceo this morning what an interview. phil >> this is going to be an interesting year to come for rtx and for pratt and whitney. why? they're going to be doing inspection of geared turbo fan engines. about 200 of them will be taking place over the coming weeks and another 1,000 over the coming year 1,20 0 in all. here's what's going on they have discovered a number of powdered metal con tam thats, which could be an issue on some of the discs for some of the geared turbo fan engines it's not all of them they are not sure how many they believe it's a small number and it is also a -- not a flight safety issue let me say this again. these engines that are on planes are not being grounded it is not a flight safety issue. but 1,200 engine unspexs will take place over the course of the next year. here's greg hayes explains how these inspections will take

place. >> the hard work is, you're going to pull the engines off of the aircraft, going to have to ship them back to one of our overhaul centers, we're going to tear it down and that process will take a couple of weeks. the actual inspection itself is probablial shift, maybe eight hours. if the disc is bad, you just put a new disc in, we have plenty of capacity there, but then you have to reassemble the engine and ship it back out i'm guessing the beginning to end of that process is probably about 60 days. >> althogether, there are 3,000 geared turbo fan engines that are in service around the world. they're on the a-320 that are manufactured by airbus a number of airlines here in the united states have them. one of the reasons some of the airline stocks were under a little pressure today. and this is going to cost rtx at least $500 million this year the total cost to take care of this over the course of the next year, year and a half, however long it takes, that's unclear at this point but greg hayes said today they want to get this going as far as

these inspections as quickly as possible also, take a look at ge real quick what a day and i know some people said, well, rtx's problems is good news for ge, keep in mind, an airline is going to stick with the geered turbo fan engine. they're not going to say, trade it out that's not how it works. >> especially not when it's the matter of a disc i understand it's good news that planes aren't grounded, but when you talk about 60 days start to finish on a process, where you have to take the engine out, you're still taking that plane out of commission. >> yep >> taking it off the runways in a situation where it's already tight capacity is there any thought of compensation that will have to be put aside -- >> that's part of it >> the $500 million is just the inspections, right >> well, that's inspections and the beginning of the compensation for the airlines. they need to work that out with the airlines, and that depends on how many aircraft ultimately are out of service, for how

long, this takes time to work out, but $500 million, that's the starting point for this year >> okay. phil, thank you. >> you bet >> ful lebeau. guy? >> raytheon is notorious for moves like this. we saw it in april of '22, stock went from 100 to 80 pretty much in a straight line i understand this is the headline, but if you sort of look at the quarter, it was actually a decent quarter. there's a lot to like here they will get through this the question is, where do you buy the stock? i think -- i'm looking at it now, the low we saw back in, like, october of last year was 82 we're right around there now, so, if this gets down between 80 and 82 on the volume we saw today, which is about 50 million shares which is ten times normal volume, i think you take a shot with this stock. >> yeah, the company's still going to have 4.3 billion gz in free cash flow even after this if you look at the market cap move for this, i understand there's uncertainty, but the problem is, the stock is not cheap relative to itself

and that's where you get i think largely it's an opportunity. i think it's totally taunt for airlines i was trying to sell delta puts to buy it lower today and this news when it spiked down also. not just on the pralt dynamics with rtx, because alaska air had numbers out where their third quarter guide was really not great. i don't see the same dynamics for -- the broader impact on airlines today, i think, is an opportunity, but you probably expected me to say that. >> by the way, phil mentioned ge, a name you have dabbled in >> oh. it's frustrating, because, you know, this is -- first of all, they've done a lot of really smart things in terms of the spin-offs and how they've repositioned and how they focused on core businesses and frankly, this is a stock that i sold around 95 bucks, i was selling upside calls, ill got called away and i thought it was a gift at the time we were joking before the show went on-air, this is a company that did one of the sneaky reverse share splits where it's suddenly a more expensive stock, holy cow, which is what i expect

from companies like amc with al due respect. >> you don't really mean that. >> no respect. >> no one ever does when they say that >> that's true >> i don't want this to sound bad -- >> yeah. but. >> but coming up, bank of california and pacwest reach a deal, and wells fargo announces a buy back the big bank moves after the bell. plus, we trade some of the biggest earnings movers from today's session, from music streaming to luxury retail, when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. stock closing higher with the dow extending its winning streak to 12 days in a row. one more up day will be the longest run on record. >> that's saying something >> it is it really is the nasdaq climbing 80%. the s&p up 12 points bank of california and pacwest agreeing to merge, announcing $400 million equity raise. pacwest shares sinking 27%

during the session when reports of the deal emerged. and take a check on wells fargo, up more than 3%. the company announcing a $30 billion stock buy-back and saying its board approved an increase to its dividend to 35 cents a share. karen? your pick? >> pacwest i find really interesting. was trading down i thought, wow, they canceled the earnings call while we were in the green room and i thought, this can't be good, but they did come up with some sort of skeleton numbers that weren't terrible and so, the acquirer stock, bank of california, doing nicely. so, this is up -- pacwest up $4 from where it was in the green room good for them. i think it's great, if they c can -- if they needed help and we can -- and they can do a deal that doesn't require government capital. >> yeah. it definitely takes one of the more troubled banks off of the table here >> yeah, i suspect it's going to take government guarantees to get these -- >> i don't know. they haven't mentioned it, so, i'm thinking it's not -- >> maybe don't mention it unless

you have to, you know what i mean >> ahead of a fed meeting? ahead of the day that -- i feel like i'm in guy's head right now. >> it happens. >> right >> empty >> scary place >> cobwebs, dark caverns sometimes interesting thoughts >> cavernous >> is that a coincidence >> you make a good point get ahead of something and it's not exactly what sheila was talking about last week, but it's sort of -- it's around the edges with that. there's still some noise in the space. now, the kre has done extraordinarily well in the absence of bad news, those are going to levitate just to get to reasonable valuations. but i think you're going to see more type of deals like this, and this one went well theoretically. i think there's some things out there that might not go as well moving forward >> and wells joining the party, ahead of new capital requirements >> right >> stock buy-back, increasing the dividend >> must feel very confident. little bit surprised on the timing

i don't have a position anymore, but this is good news. the capital thing, i think the fear will end up having been worse than what the end game requirements are >> we all know the problems wells has had, and how it underperformed for years as a function of that, as they probably should have but then it was a significant outperformer, as some of the regulatory pressure came off them they've underperformed jpmorgan by 24% in the last year, so, this kind of a move, and what they're doing to get the stock price a little bit more juiced up, i mean, it's something they almost should have had to do they really underperformed. all right, the fed, less than 24 hours away from its next interest rate decision and our next guest seeps more than just one more hike ahead. market researcher jim bianco joins us now great to see you >> thanks for having me. >> is this what jerome powell is going to forecast, or, telegraph at the press conference tomorrow, that there is one more hike, in your view >> well, they did forecast that at the last press conference, remember, they put out their dot

chart that said there would be two more hikes this year, we're going -- >> nobody believed him >> i noknow but they haven't believed him this whole cycle and they've been wrong this whole cycle to continuously underestimate his resolve in raising interest rates. so, we're going to get one tomorrow and, you know, whether or not we get one more after this, the market's putting about a one-third chance that we're going to put another one in, and we'll find out tomorrow. now, i think what we're going to find is that the inflation rate is going to be problematic it's 3% now. it's probably going to drift a little higher, maybe towards four, not nine or ten. but that will be enough for the fed to say, maybe we're not done just yet, and there could be one more rate hike done. and then after that, the whole idea that the fed would declare verdictry and then start cutting rates next year -- i don't think that will happen the last three rate cuts cycles occurred because the fed was panicking weer with going into

recession. and it makes it about the worst time to own stocks now, they're not cutting rates now. but if they are to follow that precept, they're not going to start rutting rates until things go bad whether that's next year or five years from now, but they're going to declare victory next year so, more rate hikes and we hold at that higher level >> jim, i agree with you the market clearly saying, you're going to see a rate cut in the first couple months of next year, i mean, i think that's what's being priced in, so, with that said, if you are right, how expensive is the stock market here, and what kind of hair cut should we be looking at >> well, if i'm right, and that, you know, rates are going to continue to drift higher, and that the ten-year note, you know, is probably going to look at something with a four handle or a high four handle, 4.5% to 5% over time for those rates, that's going to provide heady competition for the stock market the long-term measures say the

stock market should return around 9%. if you can get 5.5% on a money market fund and you cancan get % in a ten-year bond and the potential of capital appreciation should rates fall, tina is no longer available. and that will probably give the stock market some problems it's not going to crash or anything like that but the thing about it is, when people elect to say, i don't want to play in the stock market, they're being rewarded for it right now. it's not 2019, where you -- when you elected not to pay, you were getting zero you're getting half to two thirds of the return of the stock market with a lot less risk >> hey, jim. you just said that the last couple rate cutting cycles had been the fed panicking because of a recession do you think that there's a new regime now, will they not panic? will they not look to cut so aggressively, if they start seeing economic weakness after such an aggressive period of hiking over the last year and a half >> the last time the fed

declared victory and cut rates was 1995 the stock market was up 40% over the next year and then greenspan started using the worlds irrational exuberance in 1996, because things got out of hand now the fed is going to look at what the stock market has done in the first half of this year and say, i don't want to feed another 1995 type of bubble, so, i don't think that they're going to be looking to feed that kind of bubble. now, that doesn't mean that they're going to have to continue to raiz rates, they are just not going to cult rates any time soon. you can turn it around, say, we are still producing 200,000 jobs a year, still producing positive gdp. where is the damage from this higher rate? i know people like to say that there's going to be damage, and we've said there's going to be recession six months out, from now, a year and a half but until that actually materializes, there is really no reason for the fed to cut rates. >> jim, good to see you, jim bianco >> thank you

>> feels like the stakes are super high fur or jackson hole n august at this point >> they are. but yet on some level, they're not. i think jim is right, inflation break evens are moving higher right here, so, that's something that i think people are having trouble reconciling. the easy part of the inflation flight was over, but i think the worst of the fed's, you know, teeth, i think, are, you know, gnashing those teeth are behind us. we're running through this morning's report cards, rapid fire style, and measuring the moves that followed. don't go anywhere. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪

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we have details from the alphabet call. d-bo has the latest. >> mel, an analyst just asked how they would monetize generative a.i. in search. kind of punted and investors were perhaps looking for more tangible, so, you have seen gains moderate a little bit. still up more than 6%. instead, we've heard more about rising costs they expect elevated levels of cap x in the back half of this year, growing further in 2024. primary driver is to support a.i. opportunities wouldn't say that cloud has bo bottomed, so, perhaps disappointing, but shares up 6%. >> all right, thank you. let's get back to "fast money" friend gene munster who is also on the call. we lost a percent from the afterhours high, but up 6% what did you make of the

comments >> it's because they talked about some moderation spending in cloud that was the negative. the positive, the other 90% of their business, they described it being strong. they put it together, overall positive, but a little bit of a drift from that high another big thing that caught my attention, they continue to expect profitability to grow faster than revenue. and so, that's a positive, as well >> all right, gene, thank you. gene munster coming up, can meta thread the needle in the tech titan reporting tomorrow, but how much can the newest social platform boost the stock? jooe we'll get the scoop from the options pits right after this. with the lowest transaction fees and keep more of what you make. start saving today at godaddy.com

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welcome back to "fast money. meta shares up 2% afterhours they report tomorrow, and options traders are betting on bigger gains ahead mike khouw >> right now, the options market implying a move of 9.5% by the end of the week. big as that is, that's less than the more than 14% it's averaged over the last eight reported quarters the busiest contract were the 320 strike calls we saw 6,200 of those trading for $5.30 a contract buyers of those calls are betting that implied move, or a little bit more, will be following to the upside after earnings >> all right, mike, thank you. mike khouw you kind of don't want to see meta rallying hard into earnings, do you >> yeah, the bar gets higher >> except for they have. dramatically the numbers that google gave

today around ad-supported search are very good for meta and double-digit growth on ad i think is what meta is going to give you >> who is the cute guy from pennsylvania who had facebook in the acronym? mills? >> yes, mills. >> he's lapping the field. >> oh, yeah. >> and, you know what -- >> his fame trade. >> but this is one of those stocks that can actually continue to grow into earnings beat and then continue moving higher, just on valuation alone. >> all right, for more options action, tune into the full showed friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, final trades. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support.

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i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated.

custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. we have so many people here on set, let's go around the horn tim? >> you don't want to hear my trade. eem. >> karen >> yeah, onto that guy william, my son. >> all right >> here we go. >> across the board beat for alphabet today i'd buy right here >> nice. >> snap with a nine handle >> it's bring your adult kid to work day we have lily, we have william. so, we're missing thsome kids.

we have the good ones, i guess international business machines, ibm. >> did you think the other kids would be watching? >> no, no. >> if they're not watching, they're not the good kids. >> good point there. thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money i am here to level the playing field for all investors there is always a bull market somewhere i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. >> welcome to "mad money." welcome to america. my job, not just to entertain but educate and teach you bird call me or tweet me. earnings season, of which we are in the middle of require its own