code sign up at cnbc.com/otoh the latest installment of on the other hand newsletter. is elon musk's move to rebrand twitter to x a masterpiece of a mistake? sign up at cnbc.com/otoh >> that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now. right now on "fast," so much for the dow's date with destiny. the winning streak ends at 13 and gone, as all the talk of the late 1800s a look at what spooked the credit markets and the road ahead more stocks from here. plus, smooth sailing for one part of the travel industry. while airline stocks are hitting turbulence, the cruise lines seem to have the wind at their back we'll break down the high times and the high seas coming up. and charting the bank sector's next move meta's megaoptions action and the taylor swift impact on the bottom line at livenation. it's hardly been a cool summer for the owner of ticketmaster.

i'm melissa, this is "fast money. joining us for the hour, rebecca patterson. welcome. and we start off with that crashing halt to what would have been an historic rally, after spending much of the day on track to mark its longest winning streak since the late 1800s. the dow turned a sharp corner midday, closed down more than 200 points all three major eindices closin off the lows of the day. the ten-year jumping 15 basis points for its biggest increase since last september that move appears to have been triggered by rumblings out of japan. so, we should be getting that decision around midnight tonight. rebecca, you've been watching this news. what is it was that the excuse to sort of lighten up here? >> i mean, i think it's a reasonable move in treasuries, given that over the last decade you've seen capital from japan

leaving in search of yield estimates are as much as $2.5, almost $3 trillion leaving the country, including treasuries. so, if the bank of japan decides to start the very slow incremental process of tightening monetary policy, you would assume this is going to reduce the capital outflow and it's going to put one source of pressure up on bond yields, although, i wouldn't get too excited about it it's -- if the bank of japan does something, it's going to be incremental, a 50-basis point cap on the ten-year jgb, maybe going to 100, so it's still a huge differential with policy in the u.s. and europe, canada, australia, everywhere else except china >> contributed to a trade that we've been seening, so, this could lead to an unwinder -- the start of an unwind the new governor, ueda, telegraphed there wouldn't be a change to policy, but this report that came out mild day seemed to indicate that there

could be talk of tweaking this policy, and that's what sort of got everybody on oedge here. >> how you framed it is the spike in yields in the ten-year caused a selloff in equitequitis think about this we've seen the ten-year move from basically, you know, up to 4%, got a bit higher there, kind of found a little bit of a level here, and the eck by can i market has not been bothered at all over the last six to nine months, we've seen a lot of upward kind of volatility, so, i do think it's kind of a bit of an excuse. i think the idea would be that there are some liquidity taken out. danny moses talked about this last week on the desk. this was the thing you asked the question, what's the main event central bank policy or these big earnings and i think both of them agreed at that, and it's interesting that the earnings, while, you know, the ones that we're most excited about, the big cap tech ones, it's fine, the money's moved out of them, it's found a home here, but it could be this. this could be the excuse for people to say, okay, maybe, like, you know, higher yields for longer is really going to be

here to stay now that the fed meeting is out of the way, we're not really going to hear a presser from powell for another, what, month and a half or so, so maybe what the boj has to do is more important right now than the u.s. fed >> yeah. karen, your take on today's move >> you know, i wasn't really sure what -- it could have been the bond move, could have been a lot of things, but sort of felt like things were really getting frothy and, you know, the combination of, you know, the -- that meta call was really positive, and, you know, it's circular, and that started trading down at the same time, and i don't know the last five minutes of the day, i just shorted some spiders, because i felt like even though it was down 200, i felt like, wow, what a move we've had. and i'm always long, net long for sure, but this just seemed like an excuse to sell off what has been a very broad and -- i find impressive rally, probably too far. >> yeah. tim, i'm curious what you think and what -- you know, if there

is an end to amend carry trade, could that be, you know, money that comes out of tech stocks? could that be -- i mean, where does that, you know, what does that hit >> well, the carry trade is less significant and has been less powerful than the free money trade. and so, the fact that we are trying to normalize interest rates, at least real rates, et cetera, is the bigger dynamic. i think talking about japan and talking about the dow are two different things today the dow went down today because the dow was up 13 days straight. and, you know, i don't think there's anything more to that. the fact that yields are moving higher, i think global centralen banks and how they've manipulated their yield curves significantly more than the fed has over the last decade has major implications for the treasury market. and i think it is significant that if they start to move above half a percent in japan, i also think that the yen's weakness up to 150, as we were late last fall, only 7% off of those lows,

numerical highs, and i think there's more room to go. it's great news for japanese equities, by the way, that you've ended deflation and that you possibly are ending ycc, and i think that's something, again, all together different, something to think about, and i think that the dollar, at some point, is going to go lower. so, the reason why yields are moving higher in the u.s., first of all, the data has been better there are technical issues, as it relates to u.s.treasury issuance they cannot be overlooked here but on a day when it would have been fun to pop champagne and blow off fireworks, earnings season has been significantly better than people had expected, but the stocks have priced a lot of that in >> yeah, ultimately, rebecca, do you think this is sort of -- i don't want to say side show, because that sort of lessens it too much, but is this just sort of something that's going on but here we are in the u.s. and we have markets at these certain valuations which are high, given where we are in the cycle? >> i mean, i think it's all of it, right? if you look at 12-month forward

price earnings for the u.s., we're significantly above long-term medians. japanese stocks, significantly below long-term medians. there's valuation mismatches there. i agree with karen, u.s. stocks have had such a good run year to date, especially the megacap tech, of course, that to see it getting all that good news, all that soft landing euphoria priced in, it leaves things bait vulnerable, at least in the short-term i think we have to watch and see, can the consumer resiliency continue there's a lot of good news for the consumer, you know, they have a lot of fixed rate mortgages. the rising interest rates isn't feeding through the housing market the way it has in past cycles and that's allowing the consumer to hang in there longer than a lot of folks expected this time. but they're still moderating and as powell liked to say yesterday, multiple times, long and variable lags. so, there's still more to come in terms of the pass through from monetary to the consumer. they'll keep slowing the question is, does it tip

over and what is that catalyst to make them pull back? do companies finally lay off more workers what else is it that gets them to pull back we haven't seen it yet >> i think the layoff, that seems likely one of the things driving the tech rally is this expectation of being able to run much more efficiently with much fewer people but the thing about the, are we in a soft landing or no recession, the flip side of that is, the fed can't cut, right so, i think we are just going to have to stay higher for longer, as you said, and that -- that's not quite as bullish as, oh might they pivot not that he was saying that he would pivot yesterday. >> though the markets think there is a pivot coming in may >> yeah. near the end well, we have to be near to the end, just by definition, than we were at the beginning, but you know, we look at things like oil moving higher, and so, it's going -- i think maybe, have we seen the -- the bulk of the inflation work done, this last

part is going to be pretty hard. >> it's funny, we saw the gdp print, and i don't think anyone coming into q-2 thought we were going to have something north of 2%, right? so, we have 2.4%, we've seen crude oil go from $68 to $80, feels like in a straight line over the last month and a half it feels like this might be a little bit of kind of a last ditch sort of activity here. if you think about what's going on in china, the data is really not good there and the idea they wouldn't export that weakness at some point, we know the data in europe is not particularly good, so, i just kind of wonder, whatever happened in q al-2, we have this situation, home values have stayed fine the wealth effect with the stock market has been good a lot of folks, it's becoming consensus that the year over year comparisons as it relates to inflationary readings are going to start looking pretty good here. and then all of a sudden, we've soon an uptick in prices and related stocks, maybe that's it. i'll go back to july 18th.

microsoft announced the pricing for their office co-pilot, the stock, it rallied 5% in a straight line, gained $130 billion in market cap and it really hasn't seen an uptick since then it's down about 10% on a report in a guide that looked fine, okay so, maybe investors are starting to pay attention to valuation. you talk about a ten-year at 4%, remember back in 2021, when the fed signaled they were going to raise rates to battle inflation? what got nailed? tech tech got nailed. so, maybe that's the start of this cycle >> if we want to be notes of caution right now, one other thing that i read from evercore, it was a really good point, right now, consumer confidence has rallied as inflation has come down, purchasing power is higher, they feel great about today. if you look at the consumer confidence forward indicators, very depressed and when you see that kind of mismatch between today and looking forward, usually when it gets that wide, the difference, it is in the leadup to a recession. the consumers are starting to signal, we're getting nervous, we're pulling back

and to your point on oil, that could be a source in and of itself for the headline cpi, not the core, but the headline, to have an upside surprise in the coming months. so, we need to keep an eye on that, because that could field into inflation expectations and keep the fed a little more nervous a little longer. >> oil is up 14% since the last fed meeting alone, so, in the past month let's get more on the bank of japan and what that decision could mean for the dollar and currency let's bring in kathy lean, the managing director of fx strategy kathy, great to see you again. >> great to be okn. >> how have traders been positioning for this in terms of their yen positions? >> it's really interesting, because in the runup to the boj meeting, we talked about yesterday, we have not seen a significant increase in the japanese yen, because, you know, prior to that, a week before, two weeks ago, the bank of japan basically stayed mum on all of those reports that suggested that they were not going to

change the yield curve control but today, we've seen a rush of positions to hedge against yen strength, because, you know, we're seeing the nikkei report, like you mentioned earlier, about how they could potentially drop yield curve control, or allow flexibility around the half a percent that rebecca just mentioned. so, i think, you know, investors are not as convinced that we're going to see inaction by the boj. they are still trying to get a feel with this new governor. we have a couple hours until the boj meeting. we're going to see ongoing yen strength and we could actually see a move by the bank of japan that leads to a more significant rise in the currency >> so, what are the ripple effects you're going to be looking for when we get headlines about the decision, i don't know, midnight or so, our time >> so, what's important is that this is not an isolated issue for japan. because, you know, you talked about this in the top of the hour, which is, it has a direct impact on the u.s. bond market back in december, when they last

surprised, we basically saw a global selloff in bonds. and the ten-year bond yield, that, you know, kwinls dentally or not, marked the bottom in ten-year yields. now, of course, you know, boj cannot be attributed to all of the move, but perhaps it kicked off part of it so, because the market is not completely correctly positioned for a boj policy tweak, if we do have a change, i think we'll see another selloff in bonds and a rise in yields we're seeing a little bit of that right now today, we talked about that just before so, i think you're going to see more bond yield strength and, you know, more, just weakness in the prices, bond prices. >> kathy, great to get your take thank you so much. kathy lien, bk asset management, and spike in yields would be further weakness, i would imagine, for stocks, tim >> for sure. and again, we're coming from one of the greatest nine-month periods of performance in u.s. stock market history

so, you know, and yields, lower yields at one point. there were a lot of people saying we were going to break 3%, they didn't know where it was going to stop on the downside everyone is now calling for higher yields, there's a lot of people that have been calling for something very different this is -- there are technical elements of what's going on here, and they also are mechanic little how you value stocks. you use a discount rate. a higher discount rate, you move up to 4%, very powerful in terms of what it means for equities. and again, back to japan, one of the greatest kind of manipulators, and they talk about it, i mean, ycc equals yield curve control, and that's something, it's great for japanese banks, by the way, though, and i think that's one of the reasons why japanese equities will go higher. our next guest believes we are reaching an inflection point in the market. joe, great to see you. >> same here, thank you,

melissa. >> can't rally much longer >> i'm still in the recession camp, and i'm listening to all the comments, very interesting, about the ten-year yield, we know we decision count the equity market, which is a long duration instrument by ten years, but investors right now can earn 5.5% in treasury bills with no duration risk, no liquidity risk that yield curve is still extraordinarily inverted to me, that's why the soft landing ultimately doesn't make sense. i do believe in the wisdom of crowds and the yield curve does have an unblemished forecasting record the issue always, melissa, is the timing and the timing with these things is always very difficult but as long as that short rate is yielding well above 5%, my guess is over time, you're going to suck more and more liquidity out of the market, that will be bad for risk taking, and that means much wider credit spreads. >> hey, joe. the dollar's had this move, i mean, year over year is down pretty significantly, but it's kind of dropped off in the last month or so.

how are you thinking about the dollar in this framework and what does it mean for u.s. corporate earnings because again, we just mentioned that gdp print and we talk about corporate earnings where i think a lot of folks were thinking s&p would be 200 bucks this year, and we're still consensus solidly above that, and i'm wondering how much the dollar is playing into that. >> the dollar is, well, overseas earnings, my understanding, is about 40% of the s&p i mean, feel free to jump in and correct me if i'm wrong. you highlighted china being soft their inflation is weak ng quite dramatically if we've got disinflation coming out of china, that should come back into the u.s., even know recently we've seen agricultural and energy prices rise i don't think the dollar is a major factor for the fed and a major factor for the equity market it seems to me that monetary policy still is the predominant straw that stirs the drink, and the fed is almost done hiking, hopefully, but with rates high and the fed undertaking qt, i

think that ultimately is more important, and when they stop, it will be a function, really, of the labor market, less so the dollar the labor market has to loosen, unemployment has to rise wage growth needs to slow. that's what powell ereiterated yesterday. and the only way that happens is if the economy goes into a recession, which the fed is not forecasting a recession. so, i don't think the dollar is really that central here, unless it really was the collapse, and that to me is unlikely, because other than the yen, i don't see the euro, the euro zone is arguably already in recession, that's not going to supplant the dollar >> why are you still in the recession camp and what's your time frame >> in you look at the index-leading indicators and the yield curve, we're closer to the midpoint to the sort of back half of, like, the longest leads we've got. rebecca talked about the housing market not behaving normally because people have locked in low rates. they've also done that, by the way, on auto loans

so these lags are long and variable until some of these forward-looking indicators reverse. i still think you have to be much more worried about recession, maybe the probability of recession's fallen a little bit, and maybe you get some weird inverse operation twist scenario where somehow the front end could moderate and the back end sells off, but the only way the yield curlve has inverdted a fed easing >> joe, thank you. >> thanks, everybody >> do you see that, rebecca, what joe sees? >> i mean, there's definitely signs that large parts of the economy in the united states are moderating as the fed said, right but the question to me is, when do the broader layoffs start i think if we're going to have a recession, we have to see the layoffs. it's interesting, when we think about 2007, 2008, right ahead of the great financial crisis, the

layoffs really happened right at the peak of the stock market, so, it was really july 2007, everything went south together and it was sudden. so, it was really just months before we were in, really in that crisis. and so, it's a good thing just to remember that even though we aren't there yet, doesn't mean it can't happen quickly. i don't know if we need a catalyst for that to happen or companies just suddenly say, it's been really good for really long, maybe we should pull it in a little bit but the timing, i agree, is really hard. it's such an unusual cycle we had a manufacturing recession in a way, we had a housing recession, in a way. everybody talks about robling recessions because of the pandemic, because the stimulus after the pandemic, it's just been a really hard economic cycle to call, and i think we see that in the fed, i think they're doing a little hopeful happy dance that maybe they actually get their soft landing. i think it's way too early to call victory. coming up, we're all over the afterhours action. intel and ford

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert for you. ford raising its 2023 guidance after huge earnings beat the call kicking off at the top of the hour. phil lebeau has been listening in phil >> me lis sashgs we're about 20 minutes into that call jim farley pretty much doing the wrapup of what they just released about an hour ago let's go over those numbers. and you see the stock, it initially popped much higher and pulled back a little bit yes, they beat on the top and bottom line. beating on the bottom line by a pretty substantial margin. but it's really what their results are for the divisions that we want to focus on the commercial vehicle division, it's on fire $2.4 billion in the quarter. the internal combustion engine business red-holt. 2.3 billion. then you see the ev division lost a billion dollars, more than a billion dollars in the second quarter and by the way, when you look at the ev outlook, they admit that things are going slower than they thought it would be just

three months ago they are now expecting the ev business to lose $4.5 billion this year, in march they expected the full year loss to be $3 billion. and oh, by the way, they lost a little over $2 billion on evs last year. so, that loss is going to double this year. and they are also pulling back the timeline for when they expect to hit a run rate of 600,000 evs. they are expecting that to happen sometime in 2024. originally, they thought that would happen by the end of 2023. and then, they are raising their full-year guidance, but remember, this guidance is being raised on the backs of the ev, or, the internal combustion engine business, the traditional f-150 would fall into that category, and the commercial vehicle business, where ford leads all other automakers now expecting free cash flow between $6.5 co7 bto $7 billion. now expected to earn $7 to $12

billion. i think the q&a section is where it's going to be must interesting here on this call. they're admitting the ev business is ramping up much slower jim farley is still talking very optimistically about their potential when it comes to electric vehicles. but you and i both now, you can raise your guidance, you can talk all you want about how you're going to be moving forward. it's the ev business that is driving investor sentiment right now, and this report does very little to give people confidence that ford will be making the money it expects to make eventually with electric vehicles, at least no time in the immediate future >> phil, thank you phil lebeau. >> you bet >> ford ceo seaying saying prig pressure for evs has increased in 60 days >> as a long suffering gm holder that pretty much put up the exact same thing, fantastic i.c.e. business, great cash flow, margins -- there's a lot to like.

nobody cares, although they're saying the ev business there and gm, as well, ramping up more slowly than they thought the i.c.e. business hanging on way more durably than -- >> durable >> right so, the durability there, a durable dollar of i.c.e. is worth nothing-ish, and the ev losses are multiplied. it is frustrating. buford t ford and gm are kind o same story trying, but the market is not patient at all >> interesting, though, i think the take is that adoption of evs is slowing like, so, the rates, and we know what they were i think it was 70% two years ago, 50% last year, expected to be 40% and it's still massive, right? but if you are having some of these major automakers, with, like, the ford f-150 electric, it was like, it sounded like a great story, and then they just announced they are cutting by 17%, the prices. and i think when you get yourself -- the early

adocuadocupters are in they own a tesla here in north america. i think the next haul is going to be much harder. now that you are in a price war. gasoline's come down, i know it's come back up a little bit, but maybe there's not all the incentives to go do this thing >> doesn't this make the tesla story look better, dan competition just isn't as robust as the bear case might want to put forth? >> i think the worst case scenario for tesla is that the demand is not there for this -- to become a much bigger market i think everybody who decided, like, that thought about buying a model 3 or model x, they kind of own them right now, and you're seeing that because they've seen -- their numbers have moderated, too, haven't they and i think the next part of the story is going to be demand in china and they have serious competition. and that deal that volkswagen just did with x pang, you saw the stock rally 30%, that would be -- i'd be worried about that. >> if you want to pull it out to

macro, you mentioned china, the stimulus talk we're hearing about the latest meeting isn't focused on pushing up auto sales. it's talking about the consumer, but it's not talking about autos, which they have done in the past, it doesn't look like that's happening this time another earnings alert here on intel shares surging chip maker issuing strong guidance for the current quarter. kristina partsinevelos is here on set to take us into the numbers. >> intel's profits are back, baby after two quarters of profit losses, they posted an earnings per share of 13 cents. much of that has to do with cost cutting, or as zuckerberg likes to say, the year of efficiencies in february, intel culaid off staff with a goal to save $3 billion just by this year. and then $10 billion by 2025 but you can only cut costs so far. what about driving demand? so, in this current, or, q-2, intel's client computing group,

which includes laptop and desktop processor shipments fell 12%, but was higher than anticipated and much of the reason for the overall q-2 beat. and also adds to the narrative that pc sales have bottomed. but there are concerned with data center revenue and a.i. revenues that's down about 15% year over year the company earnings deck actually blamed competitive pressures, and on the earnings call that's going on just now, i was listening upstairs, the ceo warning q-3 server cpus will decline because of near term focus on a.i. accelerators rather than general purpose compute. so, aka, they are focusing on a.i. chips versus the old school cpu ones stock is up, seeing a turnaround the first sign of a turnaround >> all of these buckets in terms of their businesses, they came in better than expected. data center, which has been a dog, actually beat expectations. >> data center, the client

compute, mobile i was one of the weaker ones, the separate university, but overall, the units have been doing really good and much of the reason why he's going to say this is -- the turnaround is showing. >> kristina, thank you tim, do you still own intel? >> yeah, i mean, you know, i -- not trading this thing for a couple weeks i'm not telling you i think that they deserve to be trading anywhere near the multiple of the peers, but the whole group is getting pulled up it was a huge day for semis across the board today lamb research announced and beat on expectations. look, intel preannounced these were much better, much better than that p preannouncement. and i -- on some level, it does feel like cpu didn't lose as much at the expense of a.i. as people had thought so, that is the theme, and it's really, i think, for the core business, it's where they are losing ground to amd, you know, genoa, the names of these chips are tough to keep up with.

genoa sounds like a salami at the end of the day, there's a question about where intel is long-term. in the short-term, the bar was so low, and the fact is that their core business and pcs are probably bottoming, inventories have been turned over. that's good stuff for a stock like this that was destroyed >> by the way, jon fortt will be sitting down with the ceo on "last call." there's a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next. a tale of two travel stocks. it's smooth sailing for one earnings mover and a travel nightmare for another. the names, next. and later, a meta more foe sis. shares of the former facebook soaring, as mark zuckerberg promises to turn the tech titan into an a.i. juggernaut. will the gamble pay off? the debate next. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square.

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welcome back to "fast money. two travel stocks taking off in different directions today starting with royal caribbean. the stock launching to its highest level since february 2020 after topping q-2 estimates, upping eps guidance meantime, shares of southwest airlines falling 9% today after the airline missed on the bottom line said it expects unit revenue to tumble 7% in the current quarter. and that seems like a departure -- >> departure, nice >> i didn't realize. >> should expect nothing less than that from you yeah, rising costs, there's a dynamic of efficiency in airlines, peel always hold it out during the best of times, is

usually when airlines begin to be inefficient, overreach on capacity, and there's still a lot of skepticism there. if you think about the stock, though, it had a 37% move up until the point where all the airline stocks pulled back there was -- there was the boeing announcement, there was the alaska air dynamics, the pr pratt & whitney. not my favorite airline of the group, but i think this was probably overdone. >> karen, you are highlighting royal caribbean. >> yeah. first of all, going into earnings, the stock had run so far, i don't follow it closely, but this earning, i mean you they talked about a step change in booking volumes and prices. i feel like they step changed already, i mean, so, this is like taking it to another level, i guess that's how they get to that north of 100% occupancy and profit margin goes up. i mean, good for them. good for the whole space i'm surprised, though, because i feel like we're kind of far into this recovery.

>> right and, it's interesting at the fed press conference yesterday, the second question that was after steve liesman was something to the effect of, this is an economy where people are paying up for taylor swift tickets, people are going on -- now we can put in people are going on cruises and paining up for these cruises. rebecca, does this sort of -- what do you take from these little bits and pieces in terms of the economy >> yeah, i don't have a good answer for the cruise situation. on airlines, the only thing i'd say is, i'm starting to see lower prices going into the fall and winter months than i've seen over the last six months it's just one dolt it's one anecdote, but it's something worth keeping an eye on. >> this royal caribbean is interesting. if you look at 2019 earnings, they hearned $9.50, it is expected to earn half of that. it fell out of bed in february 2020, despite sales become up from $11 billion in 2019 to expected $13 billion so, it is an expensive stock to

where it was in 2019 coming up, we are diving into meta shares surging after a block buster earnings report and mark zuckerberg's promise of an a.i. revolution. and breaking down the banks. time to take the money and run all the way out of this trade? we'll tell you what the charts say. more "fast money" after this. get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app podcasting app we're back right after this. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) constant contact's advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

welcome back to "fast money. stocks stepping back today the dow snapping its 13-day winning streak the s&p and nasdaq lower we are watching shares of livenation afterhours. the company saying strong concert demand contributed to a 27% surge in revenue and an earnings beat. that stock, though, is down a percent right now. shares of roku with a revenue beet. and boston beer, a beat on the top and bottom lines reaffirming full year earnings per share guidance karen, you are in livenation >> i am in livenation. a little disappointing, the reaction huge numbers, not shocking

we don't know how much of taylor is there, when it goes through the pipe at livenation it's an extraordinary ecosystem. it is not cheap at all but i think they built something that is kind of unrepeatable right now, and so, i'm staying long this is the peak season now, and this quarter that we're currently in, so, they'll put up big numbers again, but what a machine they've built. let's get another check here on intel shares are jumping after reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines returning to profitability after two straight quarters of losses. let's get more from chris nolan. great to have you with us. >> hi. >> people are all jazzed about the beats and client computing and data center, across all the businesses, basically. are you confident that this is the start of an upward trajectory, that it's not smooth

sailing ahead, but that we've seen the worst >> well, this was a nice bounce off the bottom here, but data center in particular was guided down, and path made a pretty major confession, which is hyperscalers right now are focused an concentrated on building out their a.i. training systems, and this may be crowding out some of the server spend. >> are you getting any color on how much crowding out there is or are you getting any sense that you can sort of try answer ewe late from what others are saying in the spate? >> yeah, pat is saying that this is, indeed, a short-term phenomenon we think this is at least a three-quarter phenomenon and i think all the signs are pointing to a pretty major beat coming for nvidia. >> intel, you are expecting them to spend a lot of money on its foundries, and it's going to have to make use of those foundries in terms of utilization.

does that happen under this sort of scenario? >> it may. we believe they had one or two potential foundry announcements to come in the back half of the year it may include nvidia themselves but we think it would be for a smaller portion of their product set, but still, a nice feather in the cap for this foundry, and perhaps to get a little bit momentum behind this initiative. >> chris, they guided revenues for the current quarter up 1.5% from the midpoint of consensus here, but gross margins up 2% from 41% consensus to about 43 or so. where is that going to come from >> basically, you know, they never should have had gross margins in the 30s that -- that's a commodity-type margin for a semiconductor company. so, a lot of this is just pure normalization. i would say that this bounce is coming a little bit from better

utilizations, better product pricing and just a return to normalization as we work through all this inventory >> chris, thank you, good to get your take. chris rolland, susquehanna >> thank you, all. >> tim, what would you want to ask on this conference call? >> well, i -- i still want to hear what their pipeline looks like in a.i., because, you know, at some point, while we have zero expectation and by 2025, when they say they're going to be ready, the world's a different place. it's important to understand it's one thing to have dcia have some a.i. component of the buildout, and i want to hear what's going on with that. there is some element of a core business that's still going to see upward momentum here at the end of the day, for me, it's really, what should a more commoditized semiconductor company that we just discussed shouldn't have margins in the 30s. what's it worth? because the entire sector of semis has been pulled up on multiple, and i don't see it

coming back any time soon, so, where's intel here coming up, meta's explosion post earnings. the opgs pits thinks the stock's fiery run can go even higher that's next. and banks losing steam the charts reveal there may be more trouble in the sector we'll have that story in two

take a check on shares of ford they are down by 1.4%. the ceo just saying on the conference call, we will see more hybrid systems, you will see more hybrid systems from us. the stock had been up 6% or so in the afterhours session. tim, what do you make of that headline >> well, it's what we were talking about. and they are using the term durability on internal combustion so, it's funny, because on our morning call today, karen and i were both, like, or, it was two days ago, on the gm call, we were saying, what -- i thought those numbers at gm were pretty good yeah, me, too, i have no idea. jpmorgan wrote a report about that, which basically said, clients are calling in, wondering what it was. and it's what we said here on ford the core business right now is still the internal combustion business with zero attachment to its valuation, but i do think that these numbers are solid, and it's more important about

thee these companies being efficient with the business they do have ford's had major problems here major rally, big pull-back, it's probably going to bottom. meta shares hitting a 52-week high today on the back of last night's earnings the company issuing upbeat guidance as it's seen benefits from mark zuckerberg's year of e fish sip meta, the single busiest option today, mike khouw's here to take a look at the action mike, what did you see >> yeah, traded 2 1/2 times its average daily volume i think it was the second-busiest after tesla calls significantly outpacing puts a lot of that was call sellers the weekly 325 calls we actually saw a lot of early sellers in that, and the reason is probably that it has returned to the scene of the crime. the big disappointment in february of 2022 >> mike, thank you few more options action, tune in tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, is the rebound for

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welcome back to "fast money. regional banks down almost 2% today, moving lower along with the midday spike in yesterdays, but the kre is still up more than 19% in the last two months. the chart master carter worth in a new note this week highlighting the regionals, saying it might be time to take your money and run he points out the fund hit its 150-day moving average is probably heading lower from here the broader bank index is following a similar pattern. karen, would you agree with this call >> well, i'm more in the big money center, so, yes, i kind of would. this pacwest thing was sort of interesting. wonder if that was an inflection point. the bank run for both has been pretty strong. i'm staying with them. even though i'm somewhat bearish on the market at the moment, but i'm sticking with them i just feel like at ten times earnings, some of the names are really cheap >> rebecca >> yeah, i mean, i'm still cautious on the regional and smaller banks. i think they have to pull back they have to be in a more cost

posture. i think some of that is price, but with this uptick, maybe there's a chance to go lower the news that was important is this increased capital buffer that the bigger banks have to take on, you know, the headline's scary, but underneath the hood, they don't have to have it done until 2028, and the amount of capital is obviously smaller than feared, so, i think there's a little bit of a silver lining there for the $100 billion and up firms >> yeah. tim, how are you feeling about the regionals? >> i have a position in the kre, and i think regional banks can go higher. i look at interest rates and i see normalization post svb and that's really what this is about. there's credit problems out there. there's commercial real estate issues that some regionals will be hit with. as a group, through the etf, i think you're not taking a call on one i think you can go higher, and i think you're following interest rates higher, at least for another few weeks. >> all right, up next, final trades

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welcome back to "fast money. we told you at the top of the hour that we were oh, so close to the dow posting a 14-day

winning streak, that hasn't happened since 1897. that's 126 years ago our team was so hyped that we created all sorts of graphics just in case it happened and even an animation. take a look. so good. we'll have to archive that one and have it ready for when we get another historic stream. you never know it could start tomorrow and in 14 days we could be playing that animation and all the graphics and the stuff, the fancy -- >> i thought they were going to run some stuff with guy when he started on wall street that would have been epic. >> 18 something. >> two times in 1987 there were 13-day upstreaks >> 1987 being the year, the last time we had a 13-day winning streak >> yeah. how about that >> i think we could have another historic night tonight, if the bank of japan actually does something bigger than expected, they've been in the mud for ten

years, 20 years, and they're now actually seeing reflation. i'm going to jinx it >> i don't think they're watching in, and like, rebecca just said that, now we can't do it >> her again >> you never know. >> but maybe you never know >> you never know. >> they're watching. >> we don't really watch the dow too much, but it is a fun stat, tim, i mean, many reasons why we don't. it's share price, which is really weird, i mean -- >> yes, the fact that it's -- all that is weird and makes no sense and really is irrelevant, but it's -- the fact that the 13 up-days, why that's happening, it's not a coincidence >> all right, time for the final trade. around the horn. tim seymour, kick it off for us. >> yeah, so, back to intel underowned what is it worth, i don't know, but clearly, a lot of bad news priced in because of a.i >> rebecca patterson >> okay. yen hedge, japanese stocks dxj. i think valuations are low, the economy is reflating and

positions aren't there >> karen >> i'm actually long that. i'm always long, but tonight, i shorted some spiders, because i feel like it's too frothy at this moment. >> dan >> intel better hold those gains, i've got puts in the smh. >> all right, rebecca, thank you r joining us thank you fo >> thank you for watching "fast. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hi hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to help you make some money my job is not just to entertain but put collapses like today in some sort of context you can understand call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. something that's kind of embarrassing at this moment. we like to kick these