usually it's a seasonally tough time we got 20 seconds. >> i think you need the rest of the stocks other than the -- for the seven to come back you are seeing a little bit of that i could see the market pulling back just because we have had a 20% run quickly. >> thanks so much. >> thank you. >> great to see you. thank you. nice to be with you, court thank you for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. thank you. welcome to "closing bell." we are going to be joined momentarily by professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school for a look where this rally can go from here and that's where this make or break hour begins with stocks on the move yet again the dow might have given up the 13-day win streak yesterday. not its momentum though. it's rising again. verizon, boeing among the gainers. the s&p looking for gains after the fed's favorite read on inflation came in largely in line with expectations as a result, interest rates, mostly lower, and that to

nobody's surprise is helping the nasdaq to a strong day apple, amazon of course set to report earnings next week. both stocks higher in today's session. it leads us to our talk of the tape whether there is enough momentum in earnings so far to keep this rally intact let's ask professor jeremy siegel of the wharton school he is live with us once again. professor, nice to see you again. >> good afternoon, scott >> we head towards new highs, professor? >> i think so. this is such a strong market you hear the guidance from the firms that was so tentative, you know in the first and second quarter, a lot of it is so much more confidence. the internals are improving. it's broadening out. the eci, you know, that employment cost measure that chairman powell mentioned a couple of days ago came in below expectations as well as the

others goldilocks, lower inflation and stronger economy and good guidance and good profits, what's to stop this market now >> i don't know. jay powell and company maybe do you think they're done? >> i am not sure that they're done, but what i'm pleased about is that he acknowledges that there are two-sided risks that he is going to -- every meeting is a live meeting. there is no preconceived notion about whether they are going up or down. they will look at the data, which is something that i urged for quite a while. frankly, as you know, i was -- when i saw the money supply go down decelerate by the greatest amount in history, i was concerned. i wanted -- i was worried about what was going to become of the economy the second half. and i'll tell you, the first half, i don't know anyone who thought that the first half would grow faster than 2%. i would look back in my records, even the fed was way below that

in its estimate. so inflation coming down, stronger economy, i don't see this stopping anytime soon >> do you think that the fed is looking at the right thing i mean, there are some who suggest that they are fixated on lagging indicators and not on what's taking place on the inflation front, the danger being that they end up going too far as a result. do you share those concerns? >> well, i did a lot earlier on. i still have trouble with the year over year because it's 11 months of old data and then one month of the new data. and we all know how lag the housing indicator, which was, you know, still recording increases every month, even though it's gone down year over year but you think now the fed gets that and they realize that there are a lot of lags in that system and that they have to look at that forward-looking indicator. so i'm less worried about that now than i was three or even six

months ago. >> the bears would say -- and we will talk to one in a minute and have a diablo -- they would say that, you know, the bulls will come up with any excuse to justify valuations, which are stretched far past historical averages and given the environment we are in, where earnings are still not great, better than feared, is it good enough to justify valuations here how would you respond to that? >> well, the s&p is selling about 20 times next 12 months. you know, my research shows that's about average i mean, the tech stocks are 30 the value stocks, the cyclical stocks, so fearful of that inflation, are 14, 15, 16. that's extremely reasonable. so, yeah, you could argue that the tech stocks maybe a little bit over their skis in terms of how far they have gone i would prefer the value stocks in the long run. but when i look at this market

as a whole, i do not see any significant overvaluation. i think back in the dot-com bubble where the s&p was selling over 30 times earnings in a much higher interest rate environment than we have today that was scary i don't regard today's valuations as scary. >> do you think that there is going to be a catch-up trade from those who say, okay, technology stocks and come services stocks have done a lot. the valuations have expanded multiples expanded, obviously. they are richer than they were at the beginning of the year if we are going to have a soft or no landing the better plays will be in the value stocks you cite >> yeah. well, you know, one thing i learned to appreciate is trends. and most certainly we have a trend of those tech stocks, magnificent seven, if you want, being very strong and trends go much further than we expect, and

honestly, much further than they deserve to go. i am not going to say, you know, like next week or next month we will see that catch-up trade because, you know, we had one bad day a week ago where tech really sold off. boy, they have regained there. that's usually what happens. cracks appear, but the trend continues. this trend of strong tech relative to the others, even though the arguments that you make are good about widening out with a better economy, you know, it could happen for another three or six months before we see a reversal but long run, i would agree. those stocks pose more risk and lower longer-term returns. >> wow, three to six more months of gains for tech that doesn't start -- >> potential. >> the super frothy territory of valuations as i said, apple reports next week. it's 31 or 32 times. a lot of these stocks are far ahead of where they started the year, professor. >> right

and they were certainly quite depressive at the end of last year again, i am notz saying that's happened, but i am old enough to remember 1998 and '99. the s&p technology stocks, which contained only one internet stock, which was aol, which was actually making money. but the technology sector was selling at 80 to 90 times earnings so what we have today is peanuts in comparison to some of history. again, i don't think we are going back there because i think people learned their lesson. that was a disaster. i am just telling you how far trends can run before they reverse and how hard it is to predict when they are going to reverse. >> let's bring in cnbc contributor gregory brants from veritas, the aforementioned bear at a time where the professor says this is goldilocks, greg, why don't you think it is? >> professor scott, good to see

you. i think it's the exact opposite of goldilocks. i think you heard me position it this way before, scott the economy is strong enough that the fed is at least attentive, on watch, didn't say we're done and they can't put -- not strong enough justify the earnings estimates and so here's something i was too optimistic about coming into this quarter and as the professor says, there have been nice upside surprises on average, it's a 9% contraction in earnings with 24% of the s&p reporting i was around 5% thinking that stimulus that we supplied in the, you know, first five months of this year was going to result in a better quarter than consensus expected, a negative 7% like we saw in the first quarter. so i was way off and consensus was way off if this is where we end this quarter at 9% contraction in earnings how do we get from there to a

flat third quarter how do we get from there to a 8% earnings growth fourth quarter or 245 in 2024 i don't see new probabilities that i can asane to that, scott. if that's the case, i make a mathematical calculation, quibble with the professor saying 19 is average professor knows 19 is probably reasonable, ten-year average is 17 times at 17 times, 225, looking at 3,800. that's what the math says to me. >> professor, your response is what >> well, there are a couple of things first of all, you know, far out earnings are always too high if you look at history, they start too high and they start going down what is really amazing to me is 2024 earnings have remained virtually the same as they were three, four months ago, which is actually going up relative to their average performance.

also, and it's my belief if you look long-term trends of ratios, they are higher today. i don't think 17 is the right p.e. ratio to apply it a market. i think it's 19 to 20. for the growth stocks higher i am not saying 30 i think closer to 25, 26, depending which stock you are talking about. and i would do 20 in your -- you're right 20 times 240 is what, 4,800 on the s&p and, yeah, we're not there yet. but we are certainly -- that doesn't spell a decline for next year >> greg? >> well, at least we know where we differ. i think that those are slightly aggressive estimates i think paul is looking down on us, professor, and shaking his head that we are trembling at the fed proposing and likely to

do more here. i know that you are probably not of that opinion. i am and i reference our -- all of our mentor, volker, in that remember in order for him to stamp out the last great inflation, took interest rates to 20% two recessions the lesson learned from those years, if you don't apply consistent enough and extreme enough pressure, inflation is going to rear its head again. >> but you are acting as though all inflation is created equal and the inflation that was caused in the '70s is far different from the inflation that we're witnessing today. i guess my question to you, greg, would be, and i don't ask it in a way to be snarky in any way. that's certainly not my intention:i have the greatest amount of respect for you. how long are you willing to be wrong? the same arguments repeatedly is the stock market is up 20% the s&p 500 is up 20%.

this year. and if you quibble with me and you say, well, that's because the magnificent seven are carrying the whole boat, i would say, well, equal weight s&p 500 is up 9.5% so it's not just the mega-cap stocks anymore maybe at one time it was this is a more broad rally i am curious how you are able to maintain this level of resolve you have in the face of what is undoubtedly a different story that's playing out in the market >> well, there is three reasons why, scott and i certainly don't mind a challenge. for sure i'm wrong right now number one, i think any -- there are definitely durations during which the market departs from its fundamentals we just did the math if you believe in 19 times multiple is appropriate, that's what you believe if we are both at 225 and apply 17 times multiple, that tells us where it needs to be

i can change my posture when i can change my math number one number two, let's not forget, scott, we have been doing this together now since early 2022 and i think we both admit that you ask me some of these questions in 2022 and you said, scott, i don't know how long that this july, august rally is going to last, but it's short lived. that's what i think about this rally for now. again, when i hear something different or see something different factually that would have me change my mind, i will. >> the facts have changed though haven't they the fed's closer to the end. i think we ask intellectually admit that and the economy -- and i know we can admit that the economy is far better today than you thought it would be back when we started having these conversations. that the consumer has -- >> yes. >> shown a heck of a lot more resolve and that earnings, despite the fact that you point out that there is still

disappointing to you, they are way better than you expected them to be at this point i know it. >> well, let me clarify two things number one, they are not disappointing to me. they are negative 9% you decide how you feel about negative 9% and you decide whether or not you feel like we can get from negative 9% this quarter to flat next quarter that seems unlikely to me. so that's the first thing that i would quibble with the second thing i would quibble with is, yes, we are closer to the end of the hiking cycle. i would agree with that. but i think what we can agree with this is that we are much more towards the beginning of feeling the impact of what the fed has done i think we sometimes lose sight of that. it's not just about saying they are going to raise interest rates. typically, the impact is fully felt 12 to 18 months after the raise. and so we are only in the beginning innings of feeling that 500 basis points and you know i think it's going to be 625. i have maintained that since october. so that's why i still maintain

that posture, scott. >> professor, too soon to desanta clara victory. that's the message i hear from greg what do you think about that >> and i hear that i have been talking about the long and variable lag. the tightening, you know, the pivot was november of 2021, even though the first increase wasn't until march, and we are now more than 18 months from that pivot when long rates really started going up yeah, i'm surprised how well the economy has withstood these higher rates it shows me there is a lot more fundamental optimism about strength take a look at consumer sentiment recently how that's gone up you know, jobless claims, win were going up in may and june have collapsed back down wow. i mean, yeah i mean, it's opened my eyes. you know, as i pointed out before, you know, when the facts change, i change my opinion. what do you do, sir?

and like that, yeah, i was fearful. i was fearful like you were, greg but then i began looking at these facts and say, hey, there is a lot more fundamental strength than we have to take into account when we project what is going to happen for the economy and for the markets. >> greg, i will give you the last word. to it briefly, if you could. >> no problem. so i agree with what you said, professor. i am always challenging my own assumption one of the things i saw in gdp that was encouraging is to see business spendingtick up again so business spending went from nearly flat in the first quarter to 7.7% in the second quarter. while i am still processing that, i don't think it can save us from what is about to happen to the consumer. we passed a trillion in credit card debt. we expected to add 20 billion. we added search. the underwriting standards are tightening we haven't felt the full impact of that 500 basis points yet. >> gentlemen, to be continued. enjoy the weekend.

we will talk to you shooon. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know dwho think is right on the market, professor siegel the bull or gregory branch the bear? head to @cnbc closing bell on twitter to vote. the results later on in the hour. breaking news on the autos phil lebeau, who else, with the details. phil >> scott, take look at the largest automakers in terms of sales here in the united states. why are we showing you this? because the department of transportation has just put out proposed rules to increase the fuel economy standards in the united states between 2027 and 2032 we already know what the standards will be up through '26. what are they going to be through '27 to '32 54 miles per gallon for automakers and then you see up to just under 60 miles per gallon, that has to be the average that is expected by 2032 this is a proposal at in point, scott. 60 days from now we will see what the comments are on this

and then we will see if it gets put into law as the d.o.t. wants to dramatically increase fuel economy in country. >> thank you noting as well, four chairs down after earnings yesterday about 3.5% phil lebeau, thank you. a check on top stocks to watch towards the close. christina is here with that. >> more people are turning to roku to stream videos. it grew 50% in q2. roku is having its best day since 2019 after posting a smaller than expected loss on higher revenue the company has been cutting staff to lower costs that's helping margins the revenue guidance is a sign of a pickup in digital ad sales. shares are up 29%. and, scott, it's friday, right so twisted tea, anyone boston beer seeing strong growth and that liquor category, by the way, that sweet tea, even has a whiskey version 65 proof

shares soaring after the brew i have smashed earnings estimates and reaffirmed full year earnings guidance shares up 17.5%. twisted. >> all right thank you. enjoy. all right. we are getting started just now. next, five star stock picks. capital wealth planning's kevin simpson is changing up his portfolio. he is going to reveal his latest trades he will do it after the break. live from the "new york, new york." you are watching "closing bell" on cnbc. i remember when i first started flying, and we would experience turbulence. i would watch the flight attendants. if they're not nervous, then i'm not going to be nervous. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situation.

the relief that comes over people once they know they've got a guide to help them through, i definitely feel privileged to be in that position. ♪♪ (vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering iyour topiary talents at aed children's hospital —on. your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

. welcome back to "closing bell." halfway through second quarter earnings results have been mostly better than expected with growing sfaigss of a rebound into 2024 our next guest is using a this reporting season to make some changes in his portfolio joining me now right here kevin simpson of capital wealth planning we will talk about the market more broadly in a minute i want to get to the moves you brought freeport that's your headliner, new buy >> exciting, you huh >> you must be bullish in the market or certainly bullish on the economy. if you were, why would you buy freeport >> i think there will abrebound in copper. they posted earnings which we thought were good this week and it sold off 5% a company that's cleaning up the balance sheet. it's definitely going to be a beneficiary if there are some sti stimulus in china.

it's a dividend a little bit lower than i look for, sub 1%. the past three years they have been increasing at a 44% clip. nine times ebitda. i think there is an opportunity to take a position, a little bit of a commodity play. more copper than gold. >> are you still as cautious, if not just negative on the markets, as you have been? >> i am always cautious no matter what happ happens. >> you have been tilted negative on the market. does this say anything, this buy, about your opinion sort of changing >> yeah, i think as we get to the end of the fed hatening cycle we have to take the reality that the consumer has been into account and expect we won't see the october lows retested i don't know that the market has a whole lot to go in terms of its broader appeal even if we have that catch-up trade, then stocks like freeport and others that we have been piling into could be beneficiaries because they haven't done anything. >> is that why you bought more coca-cola? >> yeah, the anti-tech trade, we were talking about it. the last time they had earnings,

the stock sold off 10% we thought with pepsi's good earnings last week, that we'd see a follow-through with coca-cola and we did they beat on top line, bottom line they increased sales for the year in terms of their estimates. what's great with coca-cola is not only did they raise margins, they raised sales. checks off all the box. >> so you wrote calls on -- we are looking at the screen. wrote calls on microsoft and. >> an absence of volatility in the broader markets. u.p.s. heading into what became a -- >> crisis averted? >> exactly we were able to get good premiums same with microsoft and apple. you have opportunities within tech where you have higher premiums heading into earnings and in both cases they turned out to be good options rates. >> microsoft is interesting. it's so much representative of the sort of psyche of where the market is. earnings -- i am not going to suggest they were decision

pointing, but the stock, obviously, did have a great reaction and yet stocks only down 1.4% on the week and as you just saw on the board there, it's up 2.5% on the day. so there is still this idea of buying these names on any sort of dip. >> yeah, and i think you will continue to see that because people want to be in them. i continue to trend them, write calls on them, but i am not selling out of them. the multiples are a little bit stretched but the opportunity for the catch-up trade to me is real even if the market stays flat or went down a little bit, and those names that maybe were ahead of their skis came down and the rest of the market goes up, that would be good for me and my style box because there is a lot of value names that haven't had a pulse in the past six, seven, eight months. >> give me more details on u.p.s. we just briefly mentioned it in passing. obviously, the strike, you know, we are worried about it. it's not going to take place because of that agreement. the stock is up 7% in a month. >> a great -- it was a great job by u.p.s

it was an awesome job by the teamsters and great for the mental economy and all of us. 16% on average for the past five years, that's what i am looking for. i want companies that increase dividends because their share price will be reflective of the earnings growth. earnings growth, dividend growth, a hedge grins against inflation and the stock price goes up in time. >> do you own financials >> goldman sachs and jpmorgan and visa depending where you want to put it >> how do you think about dividends relating to the banks. we have new capital requirements, thinking about what that means down the road for dividends and like how do you think about it? >> we knew that the regulations were going to hurt financials across the board and you have to put that into their profit margins. we didn't want the traditional financials visa, you are not exposed to that goldman sachs some day there might be m&a, might be an ipo, who knows, they continue to trade up even in the absence of

it and i think smart to get away from a lot of the retail business that really wasn't their core -- goldman being goldman. jpmorgan just what an unstoppable force in the space beneficiary of the regional banking crisis rock solid dividend. dividend growth. share buybacks those are the names that we like and we talk about multiples. they have really low multiples and that's a good thing. >> what about energy what's your exposure in energy some say that's prime for a catch-up trade you got five straight weeks of gains now for oil. we are back at 80 bucks. maybe that's going to better for energy stocks. what do you think? >> we have been saying that month after month after month. >> maybe this is the moment. >> it happened a little bit -- >> you talk about a catch-up trade. >> chevron, marathon, petroleum. all had great months and to remind some folks because we operate on the gagarin calendar, measured by the calendar year, awesome trades for 2022, even - >> yeah. >> lousy in 2023

if energy is over $60 a barrel, they make money. they are committed to shareholders we see wti closer to 80. it's a great mace to be in invested >> all right take care. see you soon. >> thank you up next, jpmorgan speaking of, their to be technician jason hunt ser back. why he is putting his bearish view on ice. speaking of bears capitulating, what it might mean in the back half of the year closing bell right back. old sk meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley.

( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people cheering ) ( sfx: stock exchange bell ringing ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) ( sfx: stock exchange bell ringing ) we planned well for

retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

. welcome back to "closing bell." the s&p 500 staging an impressive comeback today on track to close with the biggest move the month let's get the next key levels to watch now nor jason hunter, head of technical strategy at jpmorgan you put your bearish view on ice. tell us more. >> the last time i was on we talked about this 4,200

inflection, where the market rejected it several times through the years so far and our view was that market was able to sustain 4,200 and the leadership started to broaden out. then we would have to take a step back from the bearish view, live to fight another day mentality, and wait for the stars to alain from the chart reading side and that would line up with what we think is macro fundamental backdrop that's not that healthy for the market. so for the time being, more of a neutral type position and waiting for the market to decelerate and form a new top pattern before we could press that bear issue again. >> do you think the rally is in fact, i guess? the trend is intact, and that -- i mean, some making calls that we will hit new highs in -- we are not that far away now. >> that's right. the market bumping that the underside of a channel that's defined the rally are the lows back in september/october of last year. and that's roughly 4,600 it's showing some signs of

ed.of deceleration until we see that form a more convincing distribution pattern, it's too early to get aggressively negative again. so as you said, the market is trending until it isn't. it's starting to get overbought. sentiment starting to get frothy that could persist we don't want to be early with bearish, particularly since we were wrong coming into the summer months. we will weiait for that distribution pattern to form, keeping in mind that seasonality starts to turn negative in september and october. so we will look for that deceleration to form a top pattern. but not move until we see those facts come into evidence. >> you want to explain that a little bit more? when you say the market's overbought, which "people" hear all the time, as rightfully suggest markets can stay overbought for some period of time do you have any sort of idea of how long you would be, you know, willing to accept this could go?

>> so i think there is two things number one, as you said, equity markets tend to trade asymmetrically bottoms, as they say, are an event, tops are a process. oversold conditions resolve very quickly. you get b-shaped bottoms as we said, over at -- conditions can persist for a while. we don't say overbought conditions or bullish sentiment. you wait for that to translate -- sorry, deceleration of a trend which then forms a distribution pattern and luke i said, it's a process, it takes time to develop we are seeing maybe the early stages of that then the question is, well, how long do overbought conditions persist? that's variable. that's as long as the fundamentals allow them to if we look the fundamental level of the data starting in mid-may, for the most part beat econ economists expectations. you look at the index, it's been a one-way street since mid-may

much to our dismay that's ultimately what stopped us out bearish view and allowed the market to push above 4,200 small caps start to participate. if the data misses, it's like saying water is wet. i get it that's probably what's required for the -- form into a it distribution pattern and turn the corner. >> we will talk to you soon. >> thank you very much up next, tracking biggest movers as we head into the close on this friday. christina is standing by with that >> don't make friends with salad. sweetgreen seeing weak sales in the latest report. can you reference which show i was talking about? a downgrade with wingstop. peckish, anyone? lots of food

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. with 20 minutes away from the close, kristina partsinevelos standing by with the stock she is watching. >> shout out to you are viewers that got my simpsons reference there. let's talk about wed bush, feeling mild about wingstop. downgrading to neutral and cutting the price target to $185 from 240 analysts are citing what the rise in chicken wings and the potential for franchisees to hike menu prices in response and that could hurt transaction growth shares are down over 8% right

now. and sadly things don't look that much better at sweetgreen. hoping to purn a profit by 2024, shares are down over 9% right now, but still up more than 60% so far in 2023 so maybe you do win friends with salad. >> maybe you do. or twisted tea >> i'd -- 32.5%. the whiskey version. 32.5% alcohol level. >> woo enjoy. bottom's up. >> no, i'm still working i'm coming on the show in ten minutes. >> okay. whatever you say kristina partsinevelos, thank you very much. last chance to weigh in on our twitter question we asked who is right on the markets? professor siegel, the bull, or gregory branch, the bear head to @cnbc "closing bell. the results after this break

we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or

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and one of the best movies of the century. @cnbccl . the results of the twitter question, we asked would is right on the markets professor siegel, the bull, greg branch, the bear the majority of you said professor siegel of the wharton school great city of philadelphia 69%, as a matter of fact 30, greg branch. next, when everyone was focused on the dow's win streak, there was another record run that could be crucial to the market we explain coming up when we take you, where else the friday edition of the market zone

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"the closer" "market zone. "the wall street journal" is here to help us. kristina partsinevelos looking ahead to the russian fintech names reporting next week. good to see you. looking at the s&p, up 1% on the week and i guess the bottom line is nothing that happened this week, whether it was the third or earnings or anything else upset the story or the road that this market appears to be on? >> that's right. my takeaway from this week people are really fully embracing the soft landing it's been turbocharged this week among individual investors, institutional investors. we are seeing the fed come around to the idea of a soft landing and they think a

recession could be arrived one warning sign as i was looking at deutsche bank data recently showed that eight of the past 11 hiking cycles were met with a recession however, they usually didn't arrive until two years after the fed started raising interest rates. so watch out for 2024. >> yeah, but, i mean, the market stig suggests that the fed may not be done yet, right >> you know, a lot of investors you have been talking with do think that the fed just hiked interest rates for the last time and it is interesting because one thing we have seen throughout this year is this mantra of don't fight the fed, it hasn't worked people have fought the fed they have piled in some of theory riskiest assets and have been rewarded handsomely some the recenting market action suggests people are looking pasteurizing bond yields and are focused on individual corporate results at the moment. >> the nasdaq has been the epicenter of where the action's been, obviously. next week we get apple and

amazon i am wondering what you think that's going to do to, you know, answer the question of whether this rally is about to take the next leg or not. >> that's the big question we have apple earnings we have amazon earnings. we have the jobs report. so there is a ton to watch next week and i think those two companies are especially important to watch because everyone is hanging on to what these tech economictives are saying about a.i., about cash flow, about their businesses because they really staged this incredible rebound this year after a poor and awful 2022. >> you do say that you expect individual names to see, quote, unquote, more explosive moves in the market rather at this point than the averages themselves >> you think that's what some of the recent market actions suggests one measure of implied correlations among s&p 500 stocks has fallen to some of the lowest levels since 2006

so that tells you in the options market people are betting on bigger moves for single stocks relative to the broader index. against that's what we have seen this week. are we seeing meta jump 5%, royal caribbean shares pop all these stocks staging these mammoth moves while index volatility has been pretty low and the index suggests that traders are betting on that to continue in coming months. >> all right stay with us we will talk to you before the end of the program phil lebeau is taking a look at the moves in ford and lucid. phil, on the phone, they are going in opposite directions today? >> all about electric vehicles, scott. and getting hit with a double-whammy when it comes to evs. they disclosed they are going to be spending at least 1.5 billion more this year with their evs while at the same time slowing down production. and that's too much for the investors the a this point that's why the stock is getting hit by 4% today. is that making people think

twice about specific ev names? those companies that are just building evs no all of them, tesla, rivian, fisker, lucid, they are all higher >> what does to tell you, phil, when ford raises guidance, the outlook was good for traditional vehicles and the stock goes down 3.5%, as to where investor expectations and hopes have gone as it relates to ev, and somebody, to pose a credible challenge to tesla >> they are not seeing it right now. and the question becomes who will pose that credible challenge. is it possible that ford at some point really does become a true competitor to tesla in terms of volume really significant volume? yeah, it's possible. nobody is saying that's not going to happen or couldn't happen but what they are saying is, it's not happening anytime soon, not with ford, not with gm, not any of the established automakers that may change in the next couple of years. right now investors don't think so. >> wonder if we will see --

obviously, the ceo is hoping that you will get a similar reaction to, let's say, the f-150 lightning that elon musk has gotten as he cut prices multiple times on his tesla vehicles because sales have picked up. he has been willing to sacrifice profitability because he is fixated on growth. and i wonder what the psyche is with agoing to be over at ford i those sales of the lightning, for example, don't pick up >> great question. they are counting on the price cuts of up to 17% or $10,000 at the highest amount cut they are counting on that to circulate sales. to really get the sales going. if it doesn't happen, then they say this first generation didn't work the next generation -- they have more generations to come on lightning and they fully admit that they expect to do much better as they produce future generations of the lightning. >> phil, appreciate it enjoy the weekend. phil lebeau. news alert on live nation from

julia borstein. >> live nation shares declining after politico reported that the department of justice could file an antitrust lawsuit against the company and ticketmaster by the end of the year. the stock is now down over 7% on this report. this lawsuit would be on claims that the entertainment giant abused its power over the live music industry, according to politico moments ago i reached out to live nation for a comment. i have not heard back yet. it is worth noting, scott, that just yesterday live nation reported a quarterly earnings far above expectations on the heels of really meaningful very significant growth of the live concert business back to you. >> yeah, what a reaction you could see that story playing out, julia, today in the market for sure live nation reaching a high today of $171.74 to what is now a loan the session of $81.

to we'll continue to watch to story. julia boorstin reporting there kristina partsinevelos, we turn our attention to fintech next week apple and amazon are getting all the talk some interesting companies reporting too, talk us to. >> a run up in a lot of fintech names at the moment on the notion there will be refinancing for student loans. let's talk about sofi. earnings are out next monday investigators expecting deposits and loan growth across the board. jpmorgan believes increasing in student loan refinancing might be an exaggerated benefit. secondly, they are worried about loan write-offs since they have been growing since last year lastly, treasury yields vin countriesed. sofi's fair value discount rate goes up resulting in an limited you adjustment the stock has doubled year to date it's up 106% paypal, the main how is competition. especially as apple pay game's market share, the closest rival is block, which operates payment

processor square you can see the difference between paypal and block year to date paypal up, what, 3%, a little over 3%, versus block 25%. block's earnings out nicks wednesday. barclays is suggesting the lower hiring trends will help with expenses and margin expansion. overall, there is a little concern about for a lot of these fintech names just the overleveraged consumer and kwa that means for decision discretionary spending going forward. we will see how long that lasts and maybe get some answers next week kristina partsinevelos, thank you once again appreciate it. b and you guess as we are going to be fixated, and i know we will be, on apple and amazon, there is a concern about, you know, whether you are going to get a real catch-up trade, whether some of three lags areas of the market oil, for example we are working on a five-week win streak for the price of crude, which got all the way down to the 60s and now we are

back at $80 a barrel and whether these energy stocks, which had a great 2022, and such a bad 2023, are going to stage some move of a catch-up trade >> i do think we are starting to see signs of that. all eyes are on tech as they often are tech stocks have definitely stolen the show and they will continue to do so next week i think we are starting to see signs of this rally is broad nung and this optimism not just in the stock market. the options market the cost of protection, stock insurance, that's the lowest levels of the past decade. people have piled into some of the riskiest corporate bonds so that tells you investors across asset classes are pretty sanguine about how the economy is doing and i'm going to be watching next week do we start to see more signs of those animal spirits, are we going to see the ipo market heat up a little bit more, signs of optimism

spreading to other corners of the market. >> speaking of asset classes and different ones, treasuries, we will be watching interest rates too. the looked like that would be the case until you had a move higher in yields yesterday perhaps that's why the nasdaq is outperforming so dramatically today. it's been up about 2%. there it is. just shy of that for much of the day. we need to keep our eyes focused there as well. >> absolutely. heading into the closing bell, the s&p 500 is now on track where i think it's 19th move of less than 1% that's the longest streak since november 2021. so let's keep an eye on that and whether that continues next week as well. >> we will appreciate you being with us guys, let's show apple, too, as we count down towards the close here we look at apple, which last check was heading towards $200 a share. a pretty good week for maegacap

tech microsoft, because of that move today, down about 1 by 4% on the week all eyes will be on apple. and amazon as well megacap tech wrapping it up. that does it for us. i will send it to "overtime" with morgan and john ♪ the nasdaq leading the indexes higher today the best day for the tech heavy average since late may that is the scorecard. the action is just getting started. i'm morgan stanley with jon fortt. the dow and s&p 500 closed higher for a third straight week after a key report showed inflation -- >> intel the story of day. en an unexpected second quarter profit issued a strong third quarter forecast coming up, we will hear from ceo pat gelsinger why very investors