tv Fast Money CNBC July 28, 2023 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT
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amazon >> starting with a volatile one, sofi we have the ceo on he's been all over, formerly at twitter. can we call it that anymore? i still will >> all right well, all the major averages did finish the the day higher that does it for us here at over overtime " >> "fast money" starts right now. big gains and yesterday's streak breaking losses. the s&p 500 and nasdaq on pace to post the fifth straight month of gains can this momentum continue plus, emerging opportunities a buyer of overseas stock. we'll take a trip around the world to find out where he is most optimistic. and speaking of opportunities abroad, one chinese closes out the best week of the year. what is behind this move and can it go higher from here the big reveal coming up i'm melissa lee.
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this is "fast money. we're live at the nasdaq marketplace. we start off with a rally in walt to end the week the dow up 14 of the last 15 trading days the s&p 500 at the highest close since april of last year the nasdaq seeing the best session in more than two months. the gains coming after softer than expected inflation numbers this morning indices higher for the week with the nasdaq leading the gains up 2% since monday. all this ahead of the busiest week of the earnings season. 158 companies set to release results next week with apple and amazon the major headliners. both stocks strongly into the reports. apple, in fact, posting the highest close on record today. it has added a trillion dollars in market cap just this year will next week's results keep this broader rally going this is not the best setup we had. we have had good results so far. >> yeah. and i would think that when you look at the overall market and the way it's performs, people
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have bet against this market aggressively i know we -- i feel like we always say it or the media always says it this is the most hated rally ever this feels like the most hated rally that there's ever been it's been such a breakneck speed rally that no one knows what to do with it do i buy it now? do i sell it now now you're at this level where really becomes crucial but people are dumping back into all of those large-cap tech names. what was the last wind of it ai if people are jumping back into ai, that is the next cycle of the rally. that is going to take you higher technology stocks are the biggest percentage of the market therefore, the market goes higher >> yeah. courtney, what do you think in terms of the setup next week >> i think saying ai is the big driver i do agree with that also, take a look at intel's earnings, for example, we did see some positive buying growth. demand is coming back.
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they're less focused on artificial intelligence. that could lead up well for apple. tech companies are probably overexpensive. i'm not forcing money there yet. i don't see a dip here you know, not necessarily in the future >> how about you >> i think steve stole my notes. >> you have a chance >> no. one, i definitely agree that, listen, those tech companies, i said it time and time again, they have a name i will say that the economic backdrop and inflation backdrop sets up positively and then the earnings expectations are ramped down so low that i think unless you get a real shoe to drop, the trend tends to be higher everything is kind of come out roses. i wonder, intel may be the exception, yes i didn't really see a lot more there that really gave me a lot
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of excitement. but that name underperformed so much and for so long that i just think that anything that wasn't terrible was received as a positive things have been ramped down so much that anything that doesn't kind of like move you from that center probably comes back, you know, safe >> i mean some could argue that amazon and apple could be potentially the thorniest earnings -- i mean there are question marks concerning the competition around cloud for amazon, strength of the consumer, the trade down there in apple you know, given the cautious commentary we had earlier, there is questions about demand there. >> well, talk about apple and if i looked at some parts of the business that i think we've been worried about over the last couple quarters, international shipme s shipments are up 20%
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and you know, there are some bright spots here. maybe these are green tubes in the chinese smart market as they both talked about the pc market. some of that element and at least where it feeds into apple's strength also in mac books and i pads i think apple going into their numbers at all time highs and, again, the world's largest company that's done 54% since january, should always be a reason for concern the issue with apple really is what multiple do you want to put on it? i think in amazon's case, there is a lot to prove. it is one of the mega cap tech that's has not underperformed. and it's the one where the core business bothers me less than being concerned about aws. i'm not concerned about. i just know that that's where the market needs to be the biggest number and i look at the strength that mega caps have had this week this is the week that it kind of roared back. it obviously wasn't down but if you look at semiconductors, they gained about 3.5% to the s&p 500 in the
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last few days. triple twos. they're going to hit all time highs. that takes the s&p 500 to all time highs and i think this week you have the combination of the fed upgrading the economy and you have the pce today i don't like to point out that inflation is getting better. it's been hard to say that but this pce was very, very interesting because it shows that also over the last three months, workers' wages are up 6.5% yet, the pc dynamic is up 2.5% that helps the consumer and spending thap that is helping the econom economy. >> that helps for another hike by the fed there are a lot of takes here for the week, steve. but in terms of big tech technology, the premium, it deserves a premium during this period in which the fed is going to have a very tough last mile when it comes to inflation >> the problem is, there is such a huge amount of passive investing going on now and how many different eps does apple
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the number one or the top five in so you wind up getting tcircular of buying stock. and you're buying that etf, they have to go out in the market and actually buy the actual stock. amazon is last apple has the stair way to heaven is the chart. look at that chart so now everyone is looking at the $3 trillion market cap that's the big fat number. i'm out of the name. i got out of the name around $190 i owned it forever i'm not buying it until it trades above $200 and stays there for a couple days or breaks down dramatically so have a line where you buy and where you sell the markets >> fairway to seven of the apple chart. >> yeah.
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the emerging markets will counteract the slowdown in growth and the chart master gave space a thumbs up in a new note yesterday. let's bring in carter braxton for charting more on this. you like this area, why? >> first, it's a great song but there are no stair ways to heaven in anything >> we got five charts. let's get right to it. looking at the em versus the spy. the first chart is a comparative chart. what you see, of course, is the spread between whapt is the winner and one is the lagered. y you can see they both plunged together during covid plunge and recovered together the but then they diverge. the issue with this point is do you play eem for a bit of a catchup? a big week for them, by the way.
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look at the next issue it moved above a down turn i have the same chart. the third way to dry the line, it is moving on the average. it turned 150-day moving average, defining what is a bearish to bullish chart let's look at a relative chart this is one thing divided by the other. of course, it bottomed in october. it's gone all the way back to the october low. very important i think it's putting in a double bottom and a good week this week and the eem lost >> all right carter, thank you. carter is going to chart apple in "options action.
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even outside of china, you look at places like brazil, mexico, argentina, they outperform the u.s. this year they're up 24 to 44% i think people forgetting that especially as commodity prices increasing some are commodities driven. and they'll benefit from that. >> so the ambassador is wearing the global tie, can you see that on tv. he's getting close to that the point is that em is making the breakout the false breakout in may of '21, some has been ib vesting in em for 25 years, the relative lows have been a constant story for the last 13 years. have we broken out for first time and in a long time? i don't know
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i believe in long term investing. i think becowe could be at one peaked the tail wind in brazil that courtney brought up, the 11.5% stronger against the dollar in the last three months. brazil is up 33% during that time if the currency is in your favor yushgs getting -- that's the time to be investing the two things for em right now are currency and china and let's be clear the moves in alibaba and ten cent this week are more than the trades i mentioned that i think this is investment time. the stock is up 22% from the time that was announced. i think there is more to go. >> i'm going to join the crew. if you look at the year to date performance, you're concerned about global growth slowdown and think there f. there is growth it is coming from emerging markets. i like perhaps liquidating that
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>> all right let's take a look at shares of wide nation. this is a mover after hours. dropping 16% on the report that the doj is prepping an antitrust case against the company we have the story. julia? >> that's right. making sure it is plummeting on a report the justice department could file an antitrust lawsuit against live nation entertain mint and ticket master by the end of the year. we have reached out to live nation and the doj for comment and have not heard back yet. the article says the doj suit alleges that ticket master is using power over the live music industry and could lead to the breakup of the company the article also notes that dj m -- doj may not bring a case there this was all around the sale of the taylor swift
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tickets. it was driven by a surge in concert going. melissa? >> julia, thanks i know you heard this comment from a share holder in live nation she likes this because, you know, can you not replicate this business, especially in this antitrust environment much. >> yeah. that's right it's a monopoly. the exclusivive tie ti is the i here of they can't get to the venues they control i think there is -- it's easy to vilify live nation i'll just say, that's fine with me you can see all the concert posters behind me. i think they have abused power i think they will continue to until it's checked i think the taylor swift story is one that people don't know the whole story. a lot of times they're mispricing the tickets out there. that's part of the reason why you see the move in the after market the dynamics have to change.
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i think they're built into the stock because of the seat that they're in as a fan, i do feel like this is great news >> you never want to go against anything that is taylor swift. year to date, up 28% you're not counting in the after hours or what is going to happen with the doj there is a settlement. let this breathe they do have a monopoly. buy it on that settlement. >> coming up, not just big tech reporting from starbucks, kit p caterpillar, the calendar is big with lots of calls bud climbed back after a rough spring saying the stock will rise above the recent controversy. more "fast money" right after. become an aunty. book a flight. stay 4 nights. meet the baby. make the baby cry. give the baby back. fly home. silver tier in a single trip. join one key and move up tiers fast.
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welcome back to "fast money. apple and amazon are headlining next week's earnings there is more than big tech on the calendar how do the stocks look going into their report? let's find out with a little game come on. smile. aren't you happy america's favorite game, trade it or fade it. tuesday morning?
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>> i would be fading the stock looks a little too discombobulated. it's a technical level number one drug is ketruda the sales are moderating here. domestically, and internationally, they're face something pricing headwinds. so i would stay out of the name now. >> courtney? >> i would trade this. i think people have been a little pessimistic here on the pharmaceuticals. i think it is facing issues. they are looking at expanding use of the drug. i think when you look at the foreign -- how the they see it abroad is going to help them >> caterpillar the industrial giant going to post results on tuesday. >> enthusiastically, i'm trading this one listen if, i want to express an economic view of a bullish view, i want to do it more on the corporate side than the consumer side then take a look at the share between caterpillar and deere. that spread comes in
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>> tim >> i'm going to fade the five year highs on the stock are not the reason to sell it. the fact that they blew the doors off of their first quarter numbers, they beat eps by 28%. the sales are up 17% this is a problem. how long does this up cycle go hardly expensive at 15 times forward. even relative to peers but i think we price in an enormous first quarter >> tuesday after the bell, where wr do you stand, courtney? >> i trade this. they have a very loyal customer base they increased prices by 7.5% annually the last five years i think this is a bet on china i do think that the stimulus is going to continue to benefit starbucks. >> trade it or fade it >> fade this one, actually you know, you heard some of the restaurants come out and say they had upward pressure they're having to raise prices or food input cost i think it is a the maer of time before you see that happen with
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starbucks. i do think they have a very loyal customer base. i think, you know what i think the best days are behind them in the short term >> all right let's get to uber now. out with results on tuesday morning. tim? >> i'm going to trade it ride share is resilient. we're getting back to whatever normal is. look what is going on in travel, et cetera. also supply is a tail wend -- wind i think the valuation makes sense here >> i agree with a lot of the fundamentals on uber i think they're killing lyft there is a one person show that is going to win this debate, it's going to be uber. they have a lot of levers to pull unfortunately, i'm going to fade this one based purely on technical. this is where the stock should stop i would be a fader >> all right >> and we have time for a bonus stock. amd reporting tuesday after the bell trade it or fade it snt.
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>> i would trade it. it's 77% the beginning of the year it has not gone forward with ai. i think you'll see this pull back >> i would trade this one. and for the same reason that courtney just said, put that up to the mirror. i would trade it they haven't got the ai boom somebody else got that nvidia got that by two times what they've gotten it by f you're going to jum inner loop semi, you're going to jum inner loop amd, you're not going to buy nvidia at this price level they have a bunch of different processing units pc is doing better, amd is going to do better >> coming up, our chart of the week how the deal with the legacy automaker got this chinese tesla rival all charged up we'll tell what you it means for the ev space more "fast money" in two this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery.
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welcome back time for our chart of the week the company announced a deal with voekz wagon to develop two new ev models for the chinese market they also have a $700 million investment in the chinese ev maker. they closed out the best week since december not too bad either in terms of performance, steve >> evs are sucking up all the air, all the oxygen in the market whether it is charging with tesla tesla is going to own all of the infrastructure around evs. tesla still a great ev company but now people are really taking part in getting their fair share. >> heart to bet against the
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chinese ev market. generally speaking, right? i think perhaps the rules of engagement are different only because the subsidies and that backdrop are very different. so, you know, yes, you have to have a binary nature there given the wins of the chinese government but while they're still continuing to support that situation, it's hard to bet against them. >> yeah. and, tim in, terms of what ford said about evs and the ev market, the intense price competition, not as profitable scale back the production goals. it junderscores the notion it's not as easy to have a legacy automaker enter this space >> yeah. although, i heard that their business is resilient and the hybrid business is something that is durable. there is no question i love this trade voek lkswagen yeah no question. the we've seen a massive come
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back china is probably the most important market in the world right now. >> courtney? >> i think futures are heading clearly. i think you're seeing increased pricing pressure that is going to continue. more and more competitors are getting into the space that is going to continue. i think this is a great thing for volkswagen and for this company. i think long term this is where things are heading it may not be a good thing short term for other players >> i feel like i was in a couple shows. i want to keep in the good graces of the host, right? >> around the horn we go final trade. >>yeah >> let's go back to brazil great things are going well in brazil they paid 42% annualized dividend interesting times in brazil. >> i have a feeling this is a common theme throughout final trade. eem. >> i wonder why, courty?
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>> i say vwl in my international. this is my choice for the emerging markets >> my final trade was going to be nvidia. but i would rather caterpillar they're going to be the recipient of a large portion of that half a trillion dollars from the infrastructure bill floating around. caterpillar, the chart is stair way to heaven as with. >> that does it for us on "fast money" this week "options action" is up next. at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold, new thinking, ♪ to help you see untapped possibilities and relentlessly work with you to make them real. ♪
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right now, the tech earnings parade set to roll on with two of the top titans reporting next week, apple and amazon where do option traders think the shares will go from here we'll debate that. plus, bud's big blunder. floundering in the wake of the big bud light controversy. can things get worse from here plus, a look back at alphabet's red letter week. uber's summer surge ahead of earnings and mining the industrial action in m 3m. i'm melissa lee.
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