huge flashing x sign i go to twitter.com on my phone, the app has changed. he tried to put on the company's headquarters, had to dodge police activity. >> yeah, the police -- yeah, they're there watching the sign guys. we've got to go. thanks for watching "power lunch." >> see you on the twitter -- or on x, i guess. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner at post 9 this make or break hour begins with stocks coasting towards the close of a fifth straight winning month as wall street fully embraces the economic soft landing story. that's the corporate profit growth now potentially bottoming. and strategas group's chris verrone will break down the two areas of the market he's bullish into year-end. first, our talk of the tape. will the upward trend in the indexes remain investor's friend

or has the market already taken account of enough good news for the moment here to discuss that is jpmorgan asset management global market strategist, mira good to see you. >> good to see you. >> we've gone from relief really and the fed is done to something closer to really a full er belie that we might have an expansion in the economy indefinitely and earnings look like they've seen the worst of it. do you want to bet against that happy scenario or believe it can continue like that? >> markets seem to be pricing in disinflation but that might be transitory we are seeing disinflation is occurring while growth is actually accelerating. the reality is they ofte move, and you'll see gas come out of inflation, you'll see that happen to growth as well as well as the consumer soften. when i think about markets, there's a ceiling here in terms

of how far i think markets have left to go when you look at valuations, for example, valuations are a bit stretched even when you strip out the top ten stocks, still about 15% expensive. when i think about what's driving markets this year, it's very much multiple expansion you actually only see earnings being a big driver performance in europe and japan. if you think about this as the glass half full, i don't think we'll retest the lows from last year if i think about this as glass half empty, i don't think we'll retest the highs from last time any time soon. >> the highs from last year in the s&p 500, just a couple hundred points from here so, in striking distance, perhaps, but maybe the back drop has changed enough that it might make it challenging. what do you say to folks who say, look, multiple expansion is exactly what happens early in every bull market? that's how you get into a bull market the market leads earnings and it is rare but we have seen soft landings before. >> it is rare, but when you look

at the earnings picture versus valuation you sometimes see towards the later end of the cycle. people get exuberant about multiples when the growth isn't there. i think we need to be careful about that earnings have not been that bad. they have been better than feared for about six quarters, including this one i don't know if that's enough to break us out to the next level and to have a durable expansion quite yet. until we start to see more earnings upward revisions and we see the past is truly behind us, i don't think we're there. margins have stabilized. but we're seeing actually the beats on a revenue basis have been pretty low historically that's a concern because the other side of inflation is, it's great for margins because we see that as inflation and wages come down, input stabilizes if you're buying that cup of coffee and getting more expensive, that accrues to the

company. i think we to want keep a close tab on revenues to really understand whether we're out of the woods on a profits perspective. >> no doubt true, although it is funny in a sense that we're now going to start to worry about disinflation happening too quickly whereas last year was all about inflation is out of control. and i agree, earnings estimates have actually rolled back over in terms of the revision ratio there's no easy way out of a lot of this stuff, i suppose what would you say you would do practically and tactically right now? you look across the world, you look across asset classes. what seems a better relative bet? >> in the u.s. if earnings are important right now, take a look at sectors a lot of negative earnings revisions we're seeing are coming from areas like energy and materials. actually we're seeing some pretty good outcomes in certain areas of industrials, consumer discretionary, communication services look under the surface to experience and understand really

which areas have already gone through the toughest times and come out of it versus which ones have a few tough quarters ahead. that's how i think about the u.s., valuations are important if valuations are important across the board, we're still looking in areas internationally. because you see valuations at over a 30% discount relative to the u.s. i think easy money has been made internationally when we think about europe avoiding a recession for now, coming out of the energy crisis, china reopening. when you think about the area where earnings are actually positive from a revisions perspective, look at japan, look at europe, look at latin america on a tactical basis. one of the best performing markets year to date i think there's cyclical and structural things to look at in areas like mexico. outside of that, the very cheapest area when we look at yields is the bond market. the higher quality bond market still looks favorable. that's an easy area to deploy money. not only because you think the economy is going to go into recession, but even a little bit of a slowdown in growth and inflation should help yields

come down, bond prices start to reset. >> you started by saying maybe we're not going to have the benefit of inflation coming down relatively quickly and economic growth staying relatively strong if we do get to a point where inflation looks like it's not giving that much more on the downside, do bonds still hold up okay >> i think there's room to go. we're not at 2% but i think we could be in 2s in many measures of inflation in 2024 it will take more going into the rest of the year because the easy base effects from headline standpoint are behind us, but the easy base effects from a core perspective are actually ahead of us. i think we could see some more traction in areas like owner equivalent rent in different areas of services, particularly transportation services, but it could take several months. we're not going 5, 4, 3 to 2 we'll hover around 3% until the end of the year until making more meaningful progress next year. >> is one of the lessons or

inferences how the market behaved is not -- even if 2% is the fed's target, 2% holds no magic for the equity market. 3% for periods of time can be okay >> we lived in a 3% inflation, even higher than that rate environment for many years we just have to flex those muscles a little bit again and remember what that's like. it means as an investor you have to be a little discerning. we won't have cheap beta where the market goes up for 10, 15 years. we have to be more astute investors to pay attention to what companies are doing under the surface. >> if we go back to '80s, inflation was lower with values lower. let's bring in emily rolland of john hancock investment, and alicia, have you grown more comfortable with the footing that the market has shown and

how does it play from here to you? >> the fundamentals have definitely gotten better in the last six weeks energy prices are up 20% which is telling you that the economy is on a firmer footing and the fundamentals are better. and i think that's why your multiples are moving higher. your multiples are moving higher because ultimately the earnings will be moving higher as well. when you get those cyclical upswings, first you get a blowout on multiples that seems unsustainable and then quietly earnings move higher as well that looks like this is happening. look at the small caps outperforming the s&p since the beginning of june. all of this really suggests a change in tone and a broadening out of the market. that makes us more comfortable so, we're really sticking with the thought that of course you could see a selloff but it's really foolish to wait for it. this is the year that has not let you in almost at all since

march 10th so, to wait for the selloff because you think that stocks are expensive or maybe one day there will be a recession is probably not the best place to build your portfolio right now. >> does that mean even if the market is not going to let you in in an easy way, that forward returns maybe we pull them a bit forward themselves and buying the s&p at 19 times earning is not going to be that generous to us in coming years >> to meera's point, other sectors have different forward 12-month multiples we're just getting moving. really a broadening out. i think if you want to return to the 4800, which is where the peak was in january, tech has to perform and perform well in order to get there the portfolio can do quite well from here with the other sectors moving higher with midcap and small cap getting going, with energy going

the one risk here, of course, is the economy is strongenough an good enough that we no longer -- the fed stays involved and so that's where we go with this cpi could be incrementally higher year over year because of base effects it should be known may not be well known. you may not see 3% cpi again as energy moves higher and as you get the basis effects moving forward. >> emily, just pick up right there in terms of whether, in fact, we've declared an all-clear on the inflation and growth front before we know, in fact, whether the path is clear. >> yeah, it's all clear for now. we've gotten this great combination of goldilocks data you look at friday data, core pce printing at 4.1% that's the lowest print since 2021 at the same time you saw consumer confidence rising and we're seeing respondents indicate they're feeling better

about the labor market initial claims reaching the lowest level since february of this year. the data is telling you that while disinflation is here, we still have growth. that's great i think everything fundamentally looks good right now expectations were incredibly depressed, whether it was for the economic data or q2 earnings as meera mentioned, better than feared that's the tag line so far this year we have to remember that eventually higher rates are going to start to anchor economic growth, they're going to start impacting margins, and i think revenue growth slows remember, the cost of capital has gone way over the last 12 months that will cause companies to need to defend their margins once that happens, we'll see more cracks in the labor market. i don't think we're there. i think you want to be invested in stocks but you want to do it carefully. >> yeah, i mean, meera, we did see the fed loan officer survey

continue tightening lending conditions, maybe some falloff of consumer industrial stocks loans. it's almost as if that's made to order because we go through these periods where nominal gdp seems too hot for the fed. that's going to be one of the things that cools us off do you think the federal reserve is more than one additional hike away from its destination? >> more than one seems a bit of a stretch. i think we're getting to the place where maybe we have one more left in them. maybe we should start to see inflation accelerate just slightly i wouldn't call that legitimate acceleration i would call that base effects when you look at the past and how the fed has reacted to inflation, when they typical stop raising rates is when headline inflation and core inflation is around 3% we're there with headline inflation. we're not quite there with core. we still have two months until we meet them again to see if we start to make more progress in

the subsequent inflation reports on core. i don't worry as much about we need to get to the 2% target to actually see us stopping raising rates. we probably won't even be at the 2% target when the fed starts cutting rates. they have essentially acknowledged that in their dot plot therefore, with forward economic projections for many months in a row when they've shown they don't get all the way down to 2% until 2025 and yet they start cutting in 2024. so, i do think from an economic perspective we have to watch the fed a little carefully because certainly growth is better for longer, but it's not going to be better forever and i do think the fed has an understanding they can't hike forever without consequences. >> sure. emily, i want to get back to you on this idea that the credit markets are sounding no alarms at this point. even though everyone recognizes that growth might falter a little bit it seems as though they have locked in lowest yields. the housing market is already

starting to rebound. even though the obvious kind of headwinds might be developing out there. oil prices have perked up. you're starting to see a little stickiness in some parts of the inflation picture. it doesn't seem as if the market's early warning systems are really firing just yet >> i think the challenge is the lagging economic indicators are sort of telling you that everything's okay, but the leading data flashing recession at us. if you told us the leading economic indicators were negative 8% and high-yield bond spreads would be at 380 basis points, i don't know if i would believe you. there's very, very being priced in the market. i think that is the biggest risk you look at the vix at 13. you look at the 4 pe ratio at 20 times. i think the challenge here is this is classic late cycle behavior by the way, i want to be in late

cycle environments you can see these big shifts in sentiment from bearish to bullish. it's just about owning or emphasizing higher quality companies, ones with better balance sheets, good return on equity, lots of cash on their balance sheet. also looking at bonds as having the ability to do more in portfolios the yield on investment grade corporate bonds at 5.50, we're taking that all day long. >> yeah, you mentioned a late cycle environment. alicia, mike wilson at morgan stanley has capitulated to the bullish view, but he says it's like a 2019 market you mentioned late cycle sometimes you get these dynamics in the market as well. 2019, we had 20% just about decline in 2018. people thought the fed overtightened. people thought we might have recession. we were still in the mode of thinking the recession was right around the corner. nobody foresaw covid, i don't think. so, we don't know how long that would have persisted

does that sound about right to you in terms of where we are i have to say, a lot of other things are acting almost early cycle. >> definitely acting early cycle, which is really confusing. the leading economic indicators have been flashing a warning for months now for the last 75 years, every time the lei got to this point there was a recession within six months it hasn't happened with energy working, with financials finally getting off the mat, it does suggest growth ahead of us. i'll just remind you, as you know, mike, 2019 was a 30% year in the s&p now, i am not calling for that -- definitely not calling for that when these things get moving, they can go quickly. your point this was not a year where you had large selloffs that really changed the tone of the market is something to keep in mind. it's not that you can have a selloff here, but if recession is not around the corner, risk

assets will work high-yield spreads are it. >> you mentioned 2019, 30% year, that was because the low was right at the turn of the year. the s&p is up 31% off the low. we've kind of had that it just didn't line up with the calendar, i guess, perfectly really great conversation. thanks to you all. appreciate it. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know which of this month's worst performing sectors is due for an august bounce. health care, real estate or consumer staples head to @cnbcclosingbell to vote we'll share the results later in the hour let's get a check on top stocks to watch as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> thanks, mike. another earnings beat and raised outlook for semi the bullish outlook is due to their industrial and auto business gaining momentum with the transition to electric vehicles and alternative energy. on semi is able to benefit the stock is up about 2.6% right now, buttist trading at an

all-time high, up 72, almost 73% year-to-date speaking of stock highs, adobe seeing its shares hit a one-year high on the back of the company's artificial intelligence enabled products. that's why morgan stanley analyst upgraded the stock with a price target increase to $660 from $550. adobe may have been late to the party for a.i., but its platform for adobe creative cloud could be a major earnings driver going forward. that's why the stock is up 3.5% and up 63% year-to-date. >> thanks so much. we are just getting started here up next, the fate of the tech rally. amazon and apple both reporting results this week. we'll break down what to expect right after this break we're live from the new york stock exchange you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "closing bell." the s&p 500 tech sector is looking to notch its longest monthly win streak in nearly nine years but our next guest believes the rally could be set to slow in the near term before a year-end resurgence baker avenue wealth chief strategist ken lipp joins us to talk about all that. just tell me where you think the general feel position is no surprise, nasdaq 100 up 40% year-to-date we've built in a lot of heady expectations about long-term trends, but where do you see the market trading in the near term?

>> hi, mike. yeah, it's been a wonderful tech rally. but we do see two reasons why it's changing. number one, the tech rally appears to be broadening if you look at positions like ark has more midcap, small cap tech exposure. that outperformed the qs by 10% during the month of july the equal weight 2s are also outperforming the market cap weighted it does appear that tech rally is broadening, which i think is healthy. however, we are getting into more seasonal headwinds. if you look at the last ten years, 100% of july's have been positive for the qqq average gain of about 5% if you look at the following months, you know, august tends to be a little more tepid. september actually tends to be negative and with an average return of negative 2.5% return

so even if you took that back 20 years, you see the same sort of historical pattern that being said, we still think tech earnings are going to be good for the remainder of the year we remain bullish. >> when it comes to earnings, it's so tough to figure out whether the market has been paying close attention to the trends on profits on names like apple, or something else the general attributes of mega cap tech, it's a great company, balance sheet, all the rest of it i was noticing fiscal '24 estimates for apple haven't moved in like six months and yet the stock is up by a third how does that leave apple going into its own report? >> yeah. good question. shares of apple look a little rich here, as you said the earnings estimates for this year are actually going to be down about 2% for the year as a whole. i think the flip side of that is we may be seeing the final bottom in terms of the earnings

decline for this quarter having said that, we believe it will be a ho-hum quarter for apple, flat earnings growth for this quarter i do think there could be potential some good news in light of that. the services business continues to grow. there could be a potential for an upside on apple's pc business intel's news was good. you know, showed that pc demand continues to be healthy. we're going to be looking for iphone signals as well from the indian markets and the chinese markets. that's really what's driving a lot of the growth in iphone these days. >> when it comes to amazon, very different setup really i mean, the stock is still 40% gain from its old high so it really had underperformed for a long stretch of time seems like a little wall street impatience about management either having a sense of urgency or being on top of the a.i.

story in aws what's your quick take on amazon going into the report. >> we're expecting a good quarter from amazon. 92% earnings growth this quarter. valuation actually looks quite cheap relative to other large cap tech of the two we think there's probably going to be upside on the earnings report coming this week >> by what measure would you say amazon looks cheap is it based on its own history, free cash flow, things like that, or something else? >> on multiple metrics if you look at it from priced to sell, looking at the last ten years, all of those metrics show that amazon shares at about one to two standard deviations below average. all we have to do is get back to average and you'll see higher multiples on amazon shares. >> you mentioned there had been broaden in terms of strength across technology. the ark type stocks, maybe the earlier stage, hypergrowth or

preprofit, so to speak names would you say that's an opportunity to gain exposure to that area or is it a little bit of something you would watch with suspicion >> i think it's an opportunity to gain exposure to those areas because a lot of those names haven't seen the big returns, call it the magnificent seven. double digit, triple digit returns in some of these names so i do think investors are looking beyond a large cap tech and saying, where are the opportunities in tech and ark or other midcap, smaller cap funds, you'll see names in there. i think it's an opportunity more so than a potential threat. >> king, we'll see you appreciate the thoughts today. thank you. >> thank you. up next, betting on a breakout top technician christopher rowen is highlighting two key parts of the market

sofi shares soaring. we'll break down that move and what it could mean for the rest of the fintech space my banking relationship was getting... well, complicated. so, i broke up with my messy accounts and moved my money to sofi. get up to 4.40% apy, and up to $2m in fdic insurance. sofi get your money right.

bell." stocks taking a breather to begin the week our next guest sees major breakouts occurring beneath the surface of the market that make him bullish into year end. let's get to chris verrone thanks for being here. >> great to be here. >> we were chatting, the nasdaq, the story of the year, but elsewhere there's been a little nuanced change of character in some asset classes what has your eye? >> i think what began as a subtle hint of leadership change a couple of weeks ago is, frankly, becoming more overt here there's a paradox to the fact that when we printed 3% cpi on july 12th, if you look at the best sector since then, it's been energy, resources, copper

in china related stuff i think there's this very subtle change becoming more overt here. you see it with crude above 200 in a year. particularly with the energy service names breaking out and i think most importantly over the last several days, all these copper stocks everywhere in the world are making new highs. there's a message that perhaps commodities might be reinflating. it's a paradox cal shift. >> i guess the question is, taking them one by one, looking at something like crude, does it seem sustainable we're at the top end of the range recently. >> i think the character of that chart has changed. the bears couldn't get and now back above the 200 for the first time since june, last july since july 12th tech and discretionary have given back all their gains versus energy. so, since this very kind of goldilocks cpi, the resources,

the metals, materials, energy, that have outperformed, i think it's a very important message. you could be excused from missing it in late july but i think it's very important into the back half of the year. >> you mentioned china that has also demanded a little notice in terms of the way the equities are activated. >> we put out this list of all these commodity inflections we're seeing the premise, a lot of began coincidentally with janet yellen going to china early in the month. we called it the beijing accord. maybe there's something happening here on the china front. and i think we actually see it as -- with kweb. china tech has turned versus qqqs a two-month high last week so wweb outperforming qs. when it goes, it tends to go viciously. there's been two episodes of kweb outperforming qqqs. it's been very sharp outperformance for chinese stocks it tends to be fleeting. if you get it early, i think you can make some money there.

>> in terms of bond yields, we did see them perk up again maybe have cooled off slightly, but where's the path there >> candidly, i think bond yields have been the most challenging call all year. they have been in this noisy range since last october if you look at the ten-year yield chart, you have the 20-day, 50-day, 100, 200-moving averages all converge at 375 those levels have peld as long as you're above that, particularly given what happened in japan the last day or two, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to higher yields, particular particularly with copper breaking out. >> even with the leadership transition that may be under way at this point, where does it leave the broad equity market in the u.s. in terms of five straight up months we are obviously -- it's kind of acting like a bull market. >> absolutely. certainly acts that way. our trend work is still very strong here. i do find it a little curious.

this is the first month-end i can remember really all year, whether it hasn't been a ramp into month-end maybe a little subtle shift there. that big reversal day, i think it was thursday, all the price action since has been within that bar let's see how this resolves one way or the other i think we see subtle leadership changes that become more overt with each day. >> if that's the case, presumably if we do really get a rotation, it would be at the expense of the mega caps that have been supporting the index >> thus far it hasn't with the exception of perhaps microsoft, which has quietly slipped back below the 50-day you've seen some subtle change for microsoft. that's not extended to the other names. obviously we have big names in front of us with amazon and apple. so far it's not at the expense it's too the inclusion of. >> see if that continues great to see you. >> great seeing you. up next, we're tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina standing by with all that. >> two names with a lot of

potential upside according to analysts -- one in health care and one in energy. still a lot of room to play catch-up with the rest of the sector i'll reveal after the break.

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20 minutes until the "closing bell. here's where we stand with the index. s&p 500 sitting on very modest losses the dow also just about below the flat line, although the russell 2000 small cap continues to outperform, up 0.8 of 1%. let's get back to kristina for the key stocks to watch in the home stretch. >> let's talk about positive names. good rx is having its best day as cowen raising price target from $6.50 to $12 a share. they say the pharmacy benefit management deals with express scripts solidifying their place in the health care system. that's why shares are up, get this, 33.6% right now. chevron is higher as analysts at

goldman sachs citing the oil giant's capital returns in recent underperformance. chevron is pretty much flat on the year while the overall energy sector is up 70% definitely a lot of moves up >> last chance to weigh in on our last question of day we ask which of this month's worst performing sectors are due for an august bounce health care, real estate or consumer sta staples @cnbcclosingbell on x, formally known as twitter. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience.

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let's get theresults of ou twitter question of the day or x question, as we now say. we ask which of this month's worst performing sectors is due for an august bounce health care, real estate, consumer staples and health care, the clear winner there more than 50% saying that's the rebound candidate outpacing consumer staples and real estate up next, raising the bar citi's scott cronert sees further upside that and much more when we take you inside the market zone

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about economic outlook and assumptions behind that. >> going into the second half and for the first part, we've been looking at second half recession risk is getting in the way of the valuation move in the nasdaq as we look forward to here, we are increasing soft landing probability in our scenario analysis our citi economists are looking for first half '24 recession risk even there they are starting to dial up their soft landing playbook all told what we're looking at is more resilient earnings back drop into the second half of this year. more telling, though, is that we're increasingly bullish on the earnings growth prospect for 2024 we think that gets priced in as we move through this year and even more so in the first half of '24 >> your 2024 targets up to 5,000 for the s&p. you have been on this theme for

some time about your expected earnings resilience for corporate america. why is that something that's playing out this cycle or just maybe it's a long-term shift >> we think there's a couple of elements to it we think corporate america is operating more efficiently we atriblt this to their ability to utilize technology in obvious manners. that's an ongoing part of what we look at further, the more you expect recession conditions, the more you plan for it. we think that plays into the efficiency opportunities but essentially as we look at this year, there are some sector nuances at work, particularly in energy, to a certain degree in health care, as well as financials we think those sectors inni aggregate can mean revert to higher that will be in tech and growth-related earnings, all conspire to get us more

constructive on the '24 earnings outlook. >> what's your answer to those who say, yes, exactly, a soft landing seems more likely, earnings will probably bottom but the market has largely built in those expectations already into valuations? >> it's sppretty straightforward we're 4200 we have to be prepared for pullback risk but the setup is to be more aggressive on the prospects we think are out there. essentially don't disagree soft landing increasingly is getting priced in. we still think that's more different segments for the industrial base to come into these markets, particularly on pullbacks. of course, we're looking at another rate hike possibility out of the fed but we're getting closer and closer to that peaking/pivot opportunity. all told, we think the

argument's in favor of u.s. equities are beginning to conspire to the positive from here >> what about just the state of investor sentiment and positioning right now, what are your conversations like with clients? have people decide they're just going to be in chase mode here or do you think there are still am minds to be changed toward the -- >> there's a couple elements on this i think first in terms of the cyclical performance we've seen kick in over the past couple of months, there's been a lot of lack of conviction in that trade on the premise that, why would i want to do that before i get to said recession i think in that component you are seeing a sentiment shift to the positive now, bigger picture, mike, we have to be aware that in ing a ga gate sentiment is moving higher and we'll be making a tactical call should sentiment reach what we call euphoria and a fair value range for the s&p

that looks a little expensive on our work yeah, we're setting up for the risk of a pullback during the second half at some point. hard to dial in what specifically will be the trigger for that at this point again, off of that sentiment setup, we do want to be of the view there's going to be room for new money to move in to support what we think will be a stronger earnings growth play for 2024. >> something usually comes along when the market is ready to have a pullback the question is what do you want to do with it once it happens. appreciate the time today, scott. now to kate rooney on sofi stock having a very good day, kate >> yeah, mike, it's been up double digits so far up 20% or so earlier the beat in the second quarter earlier this morning the company reported earnings was driven by strong loan growth executives sounding pretty optimistic about the back half of the day with updated revenue and earnings growth up double digits

loan originations grew 37%, loan origination hit 51%, and strong net income thanks to hire rates and deposits were up 26% i spoke to ceo anthony noda about the quarter and he said they're on track for profitability. that was the goal set earlier in the year as he put it, we'll comfortable but we'll get there. he mentioned strong margins, diversifying revenue 50% of that growth came from nonlending products. noto saying we're cautiously optimistic despite the raised guidance he said the new guide still factors in a mild recession and unemployment topping 5% heading into next year mike, back to you. >> trying to build in some kind of a cushion what specifically are the nonlending revenues, the businesses that sofi likes to talk about that make them something not like an online bank but something like a

fintech? >> something strong in the second quarter is basically their technology platform. the company galileo they acquired a couple of years ago software embedded finance company you don't think about as a lending product. they also have sofi invest he said was strong and more of the typical banking business strong growth in lending but they also have debit cards and things fintechs have tried to get into one area of strength and reasons people have been flocking to higher rates, apy, is the checking account 90% of deposits anthony noto was saying use this bank and use this checking account as their primary banking relationship direct deposit that's the way they can cross-sell into things like home loans, personal loans. you're seeing the flywheel effect there. >> kate, appreciate it thanks much. let's get to deirdre bosa as a setup for uber, another stock on a roll, dee. >> yeah, uber, life as a public

company has been about profitability. better unit economics has got uber to as a company an almost $100 billion market company and they think that will keep the party going. shares have doubled butting it above the ipo price of $45 a share. the metrics to wash are free cash flow and how fast they can turn adjusted ebitda into genuine gap profitability. they'll look at mobile gross bookings, to see if it can keep gaining. there was also a report not long ago that chi is planning to leave the company. along with the ceo investors will want to know if that's true and who could possibly come into take his place. finally, mike, regulation. this is one that you don't hear a lot about in analyst notes from wall street, but whenever it does pop up like the new york city minimum wage law, it tends

to make shares very volatile it's one that is overlooked and one that i was looking for. >> it is interesting it gets into this equation about uber is almost treated as this indispensable utility, a mobility utility they'll figure out a way to earn for shareholders off of this base of business and this tremendous kind of customer exposure they have on the other hand, it's unclear whether they can create enough margin for the company as they're trying to mediate between the drivers to earn a living and not surprising customers out. >> exactly the business model only really works if their drivers are treated as independent contractors. we know what happened a few years ago right here in california there was talk over whether that would change and if they had to make all of their drivers employees. they said the business model didn't work. they were going to leave those

battles. they quiet down and they flail up once in a while when they do rear that head, that's when investors get nervous. like you said, they're utilities and they don't work if they don't have the model of drivers as independent contractors. >> absolutely. we'll be combing through those numbers. fascinating to see it back at $100 billion valuation >> it took a long time to get there. >> no doubt. kind of a very twisted road on the way. thank you, dee. as we head into the close, we are looking at very modest gains. a little firming up in the index toward the close mostly the s&p 500 hanging onto gains for the week as well as for the month. it's looking at its fifth straight monthly gain. that has happened a handful of times in the last few years. history says the subsequent gains in subsequent months seems to follow. the volatility index has been interesting. it's been firm in the 13 area, even as the stock market has levitated in the last few weeks.

we'll see if people are bracing, perhaps, for some of that volatility that comes along with late summer, august and september. that's going to do it with the dow. managing a 100-point gain at the close. let's send it to "overtime." good-bye, july, but we'll get you ready for august ahead this hour, earnings will be coming fast and furious this week today we'll get reports for western digital, yum china, avis and many more. >> plus, we'll talk to the ceo of recreational vehicle maker polaris about consumer demand for high-ticket purchases. polaris is up more than 30% on the year. let's get straight to the markets. major averages wrapping up a very strong july in which the dow notched a 13