>> yeah, sort of speaks to the talk we've heard from other folks, maybe saying that nvidia has a potential monopoly, which i think is up for debate >> andy jassy is even going out. >> right we have the jolt report tomorrow, and the start of a new trading month. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now right now on "fast," the s&p and nasdaq riding five-month wink w winning streaks into august. the rally moves beyond just the biggest of the big tech names. is this a sign the market can keep grinding higher we'll debate that. plus a cooling chinese economy not slowing down chinese stocks the etf that tracks internet names up 19% in july and the large cap etf up close to 12% so, does this beijing balance have legs? we'll break that down. and later, inside sofi's monster monday, the ripple effect, and the options action

of starbucks earnings. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. on the desk tonight, tim see your, dan nathan, guy academy and julie beiel. yes, the megacaps, the ai-focussed semis, but there have pockets of strength you might not have noticed media names also on the move paramount, netflix, warner brothers discovery, all well in the green. and the gig economy stocks, uber, doordash, lyft feeling the love what does this broadening out of the tech rally tell you about the markets? are you more hopeful, dan n nathan, i ask sarcastically? >> the gig ones are really interesting to me, because those are models that were heavily debated. they saw the pull forward, they rose to crazy heights in 2020, into 2021. some of the first ones that started to sell off, and obviously uber is a little different. they had different dynamics going on between rideshare and delivery if youlook at uber, airbnb,

those stocks are both $100 billion market cap companies right now, they've had massive rallies, and they've gone from, you know, probably decent market size to very large, if you think about it, just in the context of the nasdaq 100 so, those, how they react, is going to be really important the valuations are getting a little stretched up here i think it's interesting, if we look at the semis, and today, we had that intel move, up 6.5% on friday after its result in guidance, gave half of that back today. taiwan semi, which guided a few weeks ago, has been stuck in the mud a little bit that's why amd report, and guy, it's going to be interesting but we have seen a rotation out of semis and i think that is bullish, if you're thinking about, it's bullish -- i'm not saying it's bullish, not that i am it is you beish. there's no way to say it otherwise. >> no way to say it otherwise. hi, mel. >> hi. >> tim looks great. >> his hair looks a little bit

different, but equally good. >> it's -- >> i'm just going to say it's a fresh shower, which doesn't mean i don't usually shower, but there's a lot of information -- >> it's wet, not gel now we can move on >> snowflake is interesting, right? obviously rallied significantly from the lows that we saw. it was ridiculously overvalued we talked about it now, it's approaching close to 18 times revenue again they report in a couple weeks. it's one of these names that has to prove itself. when i say lev state, 197 was a breakdown level a couple years ago. oracle on the other hand, reasonable valuation, which is within a whisper of its all-time high that's a stock youcan wrap you arms around in terms of valuation, in terms of what they're doing, if you recall oracle was one of the os, my hope trade way back then dawn -- >> dawn has no o in it. >> if you spell it few gave si,

i don't know >> getting back to this rally, it does seem like there's a churn, even within the tech sector, into the value pockets, if you want to call it that. >> and there's the high multiple ones like a crowd strike and data dog and what we've learned out of the a.i. hype that's hung over the industry and the question -- the first question was, was this going to trigger some kind of an a.i. cap x spend within megacap tech, and is that a reason to go buy it and we're getting follow through on that. if you're going to follow through on a.i. spend, if there's always room for a.i. spend, maybe at the expense of cpu, people like intel, there's room for cyber there's room for some of these high end software names. that's what this has told me and guy's adobe. you look -- it is guy's adobe, because he's often talking about a company that he's often right about. usually trading at a higher multiple and it continues to rerate if you look at the other parts of the market, though. look at energy coming back so, the parts of the market that are the other side of the growth

barbell, you are actually seeing commodities come back, you're seeing some of these industrial names that involving in cyclicality. the media rally today, i don't know if you think media's fortunes have changed overnight, but listening to facebook and google, we're getting an understanding of what's going on with ad spend. it leads up to the recession in name only is what it is now. i think it's pushing it all out. that's what everybody is now doing. i think there's a big cry for recession. it's the second half of '24 instead of the first half of '24. >> julie, how do you feel about this rally, the broadening that we've seen in recent weeks and months, but also the churn within the tech sector >> yeah, i think the broadening is important, and it is a positive indication, but at the end of the day, the things that we pay the most attention to are still the fundamentals, and they're uneven, right? you see in high quality software, you still see that deal cycle, sales cycles are pretty long. there's still hesitation and i think until that gets

resolved, it's hard to get super enthusiastic, because that's, you know, at the end of the day, the fundamentals really do have to matter. what i worry about, when we get snowflake trading at 20 times revenue, it starts to be narrative. that has to be backed up be fundamentals i'm a little concerned here. >> recession in name only, that's been -- >> rino. >> it's been pushed out -- >> still trying to push that >> there's a lot of acronyms out there, tina, rino. >> guy writes them down on the little scratch pad there but i just think it's interesting that if you think about how much value's been accrued to this a.i. story, let's call it a couple trillion across the big megacaps and the other ones are coming enjoying the party now, a lot of them are going to tell us in otheir guidance, they're not really going to see a meaningful impact to their earnings until the back half of 2024 we've had this multiple expansion, we've seen this market that, it does feel uneven, but we're talking about

the broadening out we're seeing decent rotation, it's a more cyclical sort of area, but if things start to slow, and let's just say the pull forward was on the valuation front, then you have a disconnect and a little bit of a problem. so, just as tidy as the selloff was in 2022, it seems to be, we might be in for the same sort of thing where we had a down 20 some percent in the dow last year, and who knows -- maybe next year is the year of the 20% -- or 20-point vi x, not a 1 vix. no one is pricing in any volatility on a week like this, all the big earnings, apple, amazon on thursday 1% move in the s&p for the week. there's no fear anywhere >> we got that from microsoft, a later ramp than expected in terms of revenue attributed to a.i. to tim's point, doesn't there have to be some place that gives up because of the spend on a.i.? if you have a budget -- >> you have to spend money on everything

>> intel kind of said that and even though their numbers were better and they actually showed strength in data center and other places they've been getting destroyed, there's no question there's not an unlimited cap x supply for spending. i think there are parts of the spend now that are a lot sexier, a lot more relevant and necessary. i think back to the market we have right now, though, i almost feel like you are kind of closing the book on this run i mean, we're -- we're really back to all-time highs again we've pretty much capped the fed out. the fed has one or two, probably just one more mike, hab not one more and at this point, it's safe to say -- look, there was no recession, the consumer is better, the cycle and the way this is unfolding is taking a lot longer as it probably should it's really easy to see in hindsight. the question is, what do you do, there's data out this morning in terms of the naishl association of active money managers we're basically at november 21 levels in terms of positioning of active managers

it means people have chased. they chased a lot back in. we're at levels now that feel a little uncomfortable to me because you have gotten this move where so many people were offside. so, i'm not saying that the world isn't a better place, but after this move we've had and positioning has changed so much and sentiment has changed so much, hard to get really bullish here >> the pain trade was to the upside >> clearly >> year to date, it almost feels like, well, when does that trade to the downside? almost like we are in that place. when you hear somebody saying, you know what, soft landing or no landing, it sort of makes you think -- >> you love that term. no landing >> no landing. >> everybody tries to aggravate me on a monday, can't do it. i'm in such a great mood >> are you really in a good mood >> tremendous. trade deadline is coming up. a lot of -- >> oh, man here we go >> getting back to the -- >> you're right about that the pain trade was to the upside without question why do i know that because i've been fighting it the entire year, since december. clearly trying to find the

bearish narrative, which is there, but the market doesn't seem to aknowledge it. once again, sort of grab hold -- i don't know, into the fall makes sense, and i think there's going to be a re-acceleration of inflation. a lot of people are writing about that now, which is why the fed is as hawkish as they are. a lot of this move over the last couple months, i think it's been predicated on this misguided belief that in the beginning of next year there are going to be rate cuts. i don't see that happening >> the so-called base effects start to ease off. consumers having to pay off student loan bills in the fall, all the pressures entering the picture. >> right and we don't have the, whatever it is, $200 billion benefit of lower oil prices that's going to also be pretty impactful, and it's meaningful to people when that starts to hit them hard. ty do worry a lot about the consumer, and, you know, i think back to, you know, december, january, it was just a foregone conclusion that there was going to be a recession. my art school teacher was

telling me as much and i think now that the fact that everyone is starting to capitulate and say, you know what, maybe no recession, maybe everything is going to be fine, that is actually what makes me worry a little bit more that we are all feeling pretty sang win about things >> yeah. our next guest sees cracks in this summer rally julian emanuel, good to see you. you just recently raised your price target rate on the s&p 500 to basically a little bit below where we are right now so, what kind of cracks are you seeing >> well, look. so, and again, guy alluded to this, this market has squeezed a lot of people and frankly, in a momentum market like this, and we have to acknowledge, this is actually one of the greatest momentum markets of our lifetime the nasdaq has annualized at 100% since the bank crisis bottom in march. so, look, this is very much

about the market bifurcating into fear and greed. greed, we know when we think about it, the technology names that have run as far as they have been are sort of in the throes of rational exuberance, right racialal exuberance means that when you look out, particularly into '24 and '25, the spend is going to be there for a.i. corp raments have told us as much but you still have to get from here to there and these stocks have moved energy, health care, have been beset by fear until recently energy has started to rally china has started to rally and the incredible thing about this market, once price momentum starts moving, it takes on a life of its own. so, we want to sort of be cognizant of that, coming into august and september, why does the market go down every september? it's really kind of hard to say. it's -- perhaps as much a mood

thing as anything else and i would only point out this, is that we should be be careful what we wish for if we don't want or don't think the market goes down in september, the last two years, where the market didn't go down in september, 2018, where you had a massive bear market in fourth quarter, and 2007, i don't need to tell you what happened those next two years. >> so, to position yourself for that crack that you think is going to happen in the next few months, you want to be in the fear part of the greed part? >> so, we actually want to be in both, because you have to differentiate between the short and the long-term here the -- again, the part where there's been fear, i think there's a available long-term thesis, particularly in energy, and in health care, but at the same time, we do like those call it quote unquote a.i.-a type names, but you need to hedge the perfect example, the summer of 1999, the nasdaq fell 14% and

the stock that is the highest market cap stock in 2023 fell 29% to a split adjusted price of 51.3 cents, and it's 190 million now. that's why you have to figure out how to be a long-term holder when there's going to be volume littlety >> you are recommending using the qs as a hedge, right when you are betting on a.i., you are betting on the nasdaq. >> absolutely. and lo and behold, chair powell has given us an opportunity to hedge, because the higher interest rates move, the more attractive selling calls against your position becomes, and the more attractive it is to finance downside puts. and that's what looks interesting to us. particularly into october, which, again, has the seasonals. and we're not even saying you need to decline. if this position were stat tick,

you would just need to annualize, call it below 30%, to not lose money on that kind of hedge. >> the beginning of the year, you started out, or, you know, towards the beginning of the year, you started with a price target that was 41 -- >> 4150. >> what -- we're talking about the pain trade higher, what do you think you missed about the moves we've seen year to date? >> it was, you know, bruce springsteen. we were waiting for the moment that just don't come >> wow >> that was the recession. >> nice work, by the way >> badlands. >> we talked about led zeppelin in the green room. >> you really came to the table with something big there >> you know, look. and frankly, again, this is one of these things that we underestimated the fact that money supply increased so profoundly in 2020, 2021 and the fed was still buying bonds in the first half of 2022 yo, all f the tightening has not been enough to counteract it. it's been a pandemic stimulus

savings pool the labor market is good you don't have a recession with those conditions >> so, walk me through, when you raised your price target to 44 and change, finally, what was the worry that went through your head about, i don't want to say throwing in the towel, because it is still downside from where we are currently, but boosting your outlook >> the worry was that valuation might have been too extreme, but what we found is something that we found in the '90s, that you can actually still make money in the stock market with interest rates at 5% or 6%. >> julian, great to speak with you. thank you. >> thank you >> julian emanuel, evercorp isi. what are you latughing at? >> he's dropping bruce top ten song, badlands >> top ten top three. >> "born in the usa" we can put at the bottom of the list.

isn't that what we wanted to do here >> i don't know. it's the a-block >> growing up -- >> you have "born to run," you have -- >> "thunder road." >> coming up, a -- i'm talking a potential plot twist for disney's corner office pushing shares higher. we dive into it. plus, july's biggest sector gainer, energy surging a look inside this high octane trade. "fast money" will be right back.

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welcome back to "fast money. disney shares jumping 3% today on a report that bob iger is bringing back two former execs as consultants tom sax and kevin mayer, who are at one time considered iger's successors, now run the blackstone-backed candle media, have been hired by disney to advise on the direction of its legacy tv business and espn. the move coming just weeks after disney's board extended iger's contract for two years, renewing questions about the company's succession plan. and remember that interview that david faber had with bob iger, he basically said that everything was open, i mean, the

legacy tv business may not be the core anymore, which is really, you know, revolutionary, sort of, in the minds of disney investors. >> august 9th, they report, so, that's next wednesday, i believe, right so, the question is, what's going to happen to that -- you figure, maybe they already did the kitchen sink thing, or maybe this could be the one where they just put it all out on the table. the fact that we traded down an effectively held the levels we saw in the throes of 2020 is encouraging. question you have to ask yourself, what's your upside here is your upside maybe 98 to 100, where other stocks have more beta so, i think it's good that we traded down there and held i think they're going to kitchen sink it on the ninth >> julie, what do you think? >> yeah, i think there's the potential for them to really pull back and think about how they're spending their capital it's been a huge benefit to them to have this writers' strike, because i think everyone is starting to wake up and realize that streaming is incredibly painfully expensive to do and super competitive. so, in a way, they bought a little bit of time with this strike, and i think iger's

comments reflect that a little bit. but looking forward, i -- i think, how do you think about a business that -- how can this business get back to, you know, the structural margins it achieved, 25% operating margins, it's nowhere near that and until there's clarity on the profitability, the stock is a little bit stuck >> i know it seems crazy to say, like, old friends, new tricks, how about old friends, old tricks but i feel like the old tricks are why you want to own disney right now. i feel like you're looking at theme parks, i realize pricing can't go a whole lot higher, i realize you had a pent up demand dynamic that's going to change but i think disney studio, when it does re-emerge, and it will the strike has been painful for a lot of people and it's going to continue to be, but it's going to end and disney studio is one of those money -- it's basically -- it's a machine that keeps delivers for the entire fly wheel of disney. guy's right, i think the performance of the stock on the down side, look, relative to

netflix, the s&p, you know, maybe not relative to warner brothers, but that's not disney's yard stick. this is one of the best-run companies historically in the world. it's great you got the old crew back together again, but frankly, it's -- they're going to need to do something different, even though disney's old playbook is what should save the company right now. >> yeah, and if you know kevin mayer, the guy's a stud. if you think about what he's done since he left disney. he was the ceo of tiktok, he's been involved in smash capital, which is also vc, he took a company public on a board, so, i think there's some new tricks there. i think it makes sense to bring in old blood with new views. espn is a gem, right, of this whole, you know, operation here, and probably going to come up with some creative ways to better monetize it >> i mean, he could be the next ceo. >> yeah. >> he left because he was not -- >> not going to be >> not going to be the ceo

and so did tom, potential people bob iger iger has to sign on fo more years because there isn't anybody. >> tom rogers was there a couple weeks ago saying the fixes for disney are going to take 18 months to two years, at least, right? you get ahead of it in terms of the stock. the fact that we traded down to those levels and held is a good sign, but how much upside in the short-term, i'm not sure. all right, here's what's coming up next starbucks earnings on deck will investors get a jolt or burned the options action on that name ahead. plus, are you looking for an energizing rally oil prices at their highest level in over three months, and it's taking energy stocks with it we'll drill down on that sector, next you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

we have a news alert for you related to jeffrey epstein contessa brewer has that story >> lawyers for the u.s. virgin islands told a federal judge that jpmorgan chase handled more than $1 million in payments from jeffrey epstein to what they describe as girls or women after the bank terminated epstein as a client in a new letter filed this afternoon, lawyers from the office of the u.s. virgin islands attorney general detailed more than 9,000 transactions paid out to epstein-related accounts between 2005 and 2019 that were not disclosed during the court mandated evidence exchange window we have reached out to jpmorgan for comment and we'll bring you any response that they have, melissa. >> all right, contessa, thank you.

meanwhile, crude oil closing on its best month, dating all the way back to january 2022 wti surging by a percent and a half today, ending july up 16% to finish at almost 82 bucks a share. the move in the commodity pumpump ing energy stocks higher chevron got an upgrade today, that helped, exxon saying it's going to supply lithium to companies, battery companies, car companies, et cetera. >> that helped, too. >> yeah, i think for energy it's really right down the core of what they're doing, which is paying down debt and having payout levels to shareholders that are almost in competition with each other. i go back to schlumberger, because they were able to reaffirm in their second quarter numbers just how profitable the numbers are going to be, when offshore is starting to pick up momentum i believe these are stocks you can stay here at these runs and

i think we're doing it -- a lot of this run was done when oil was on its way down, so, i think there's now that view that this is not just a trade, it's an investment >> reasonable valuations, i mean, chevron topped out when they announced that $75 billion stock buy-back in november of last year. we held some levels. and now we're on the upturn. exxonmobil, a few percent to a top high oih is at a four-year high, g the spring of 2019, with a lot of runway left, because -- listen, schlumberger, baker hughes, still reasonable on valuation. i think they go higher and energy, 2019 levels in terms of demand, we know the china slowdown that was one of the reasons it sold off like it did on top of which the rotation into big tech and out of energy, that's all going to start to unwind, and i think energy is going to be a beneficiary. >> yeah, julie >> i think from a trading perspective, energy makes a lot of sense the valuations are much less

extended and the fundamentals look pretty okay you know, i think for longer term investors, it's really hard to get excited when you have just so much volatility in terms of the commodity and so little control for these companies. but i would say that the larger cap businesses really seem to have gotten religion in terms of being able to control their capacity and limit their supply, and i think that's -- that's going to be important for them longer term. all right, coming up, the china rebound. the winning july, pulling the etf back into the green for the year, but can the rally hold our next guest thinks so he'll lay out his case. and sipping on starbucks options traders are getting calf nated ahead of earnings. we'll have that order ahead in two. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. mlb partners with t-mobile to not only enhance the fan experience,

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing out the month near the highs of the session. the dow rising 100 points for its 15th gain in 16 days the nasdaq and s&p climbing into positive territory in the last 15 minutes of the day. the gains solidifying a solid july for all the major averages. the nasdaq and s&p clocking their fifth straight month of

gains, the longest winning streak in about two years. apple posting another record close as it inches towards the $200 level avis saying it sees elevated peak period demand western dig, that's dropping despite top and bottom line beats, and yum china dropping. that stock is down 3.5% right now. tim, i think you own yumc -- >> i don't now, but it's a stock i've traded, and certainly -- remember the days when we spun off yum china from yum and that was supposed to be the growth china and yum u.s. outperformed. yum china has seen extraordinary growth, especially coming out of the lockdown in china. the valuation is far from expensive at this point, but the stock's had a major, major run that's what you're talking about here margins run into a little bit of pressure there are parts of the growth story, the rolling out of k coffee, a line of coffee stores, which will work. they're not going to challenge

starbucks in china yet, but i think it's an interesting story. i think you are buying weakness. you don't have to buy it here. >> you just said this, and i'm probably joffscript, right befor the close, it was down on the day. look at this thing talk about that term we use, window dressing. >> sure. >> at month's end. it's pretty goofy, like, what happened here. and then one last thing, look at that right through russell 2,000. how many stocks -- >> russell 2,000 probably about 2,000 >> it's got a 3 trillion market cap, which is equal to that of apple, and this thing, you know, we talked about that broadening out trade, you want to see this thing break out. it's gotten up to that level here and if you can't get above 20, 30, something like that, that would be a thing i would just bring it back to some of these charts i think the technicals, once but get trhrough the earnings this week, there's going to be that other stuff. going to be less fed, going to

be technical stuff >> 2,000 is a key level for the 2,000, julie and i thought of you this mornimo morning when we were talking about it on "squawk on the street." >> it is interesting to see the broadening out happening it's still the same rules always apply when you're investing in small cap. i don't think this is a b benchmark you want to do with an eft. you want to find fundamentally strong businesses. if we did get into tougher sledding, i think that really starts to impact the sector -- the group overall. >> all right, the china internet etf wrappening up its third best month or record. up 19% in july our next guest says there may be good news ahead for investors. let's bring in david reedle. good to see you. we haven't gotten stimulus from beijing. i thought it was interesting when i read through your note, you say that what's happening with russia pulling out of the

black sea grain initiative, that could be the prompt for beijing to do more stimulus. can you explain? >> that's right. people aren't really paying attention to this, but china is the biggest buyer of ukrainian grain. >> and so, with the breakdown in that black sea grain initiative, the pressures on beijing are going to be extreme in terms of food price inflation so, they are huge importers of that wheat they may have been stockpiling a little bit ahead of that breakdown in that agreement, but that stockpile is weeks, not months i would be concerned about food price inflation in china, which could really hurt. that could really prompt beijing into a stimulus package. >> hey, david, it's tim. let's talk about big brother in china, and the pressure that's been on a lot of -- more than any other secondetor? the baba news, we talk a lot

i'm long, i've been adding to a position >> yep >> is that something you can feel safe buying >> i think that's -- that's behind us for now, tim i think beijing's not going to cause trouble on any front, any investment front that they can avoid. that would be very much a self-inflicted wound so, i think you'll see beijing pull back from that a little bit. focus on corruption and other things i think xi's political position is very strong i think the urban youth unemployment is a problem. the prospect of food price inflation is a problem the issues in the property sector is a problem. so, they're not going to do something self-inflicted like the tech crackdown >> david, in august 2015, we saw the yuan, are we on the precipice of something like that again? >> i don't think china is going to try to export their way out of this. they've already had a lot of drops in exports a 12% drop last month alone. they're really focused on

domestic consumption, things they can control at home they know the external environment is rough so, i think watch more for fiscal-type good stimulus. they've got stimulus now and benefits on people buying evs and so on, so, they really need those chinese consumers to loosen up their pocketbooks a little bit and have more confidence >> they need them to invest in the stock market chinese households are very indebted they were much more impacted by rolling shutdowns in their economy. they didn't get the stimulus checks that we did here in the united states. and so, they're under a lot more stress even now with no lockdowns and no covid measures in place so, i'm wondering if you think that's a priority there. we've got forward investors, you know, fleeing, or out the door already, and chinese retail investors who usually make up 60% of the volume in the chinese stock market not wanting to get back in. >> that's right. and as you know, the old saying in china, so, people are going

to be worried about their savings, they're going to be in cas cash, they're concerned about the value of their property. one of the reasons i wouldn't buy one of the broader indexes like the fxi, which is very banks-heavy. i would cherry pick individual names that can benefit, as consumer discretionary spending sort of backs off a little bit let's wait for evidence on what they're going to do on the stimulus front, but i wouldn't buy broad-based in china today >> what do you think -- which stocks do you think have the all-clear for a u.s. investor to be in at this point, david >> so, i'd be a buyer of baidu you are going to have a generation of people that grew up with them i think they have some benefits still coming from a.i., which is a big national focus for the government also, i'd like back at new oriental education this is a for profit education

company. they've done a lot on cramming for exams. during times of unemployment, the chinese do spend a lot of time and energy on improving their skills and their training. and new oriental is in a position to benefit from that. >> david, thank you. >> thank you very much >> and, of course, china has a huge youth unemployment issue, so, it's -- people are seeking to sharpen their skills and maybe edu is one way >> it's a great name david's reminded, because this is a name that was a big part of investing some of the new internet and dot com stocks back in china also, we talk about china being critical for getting em rightveo break through one-year high, if you think the dollar's peaked here so, i think china is pulling the entire asset class up. that move in baba, which -- i think continues to go higher, is very impressive here >> pull up the baba chart real quick. earnings in a couple weeks that was the high we made back

in january and again, last summer, july it continues its levitation up to the 119 level and we'll have the conversation again. coming up, sofi going sky high today what the ceo had to say, and what the strength could mean for the rest of the industry one of our traders is breaking it down. don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. it was just take, take, take. so i broke up with bad banking and moved to sofi checking and savings. now i get higher interest, pay no account fees, and get my paycheck two days early. get up to 4.40% apy, pay no account fees, and up to $2m in fdic insurance. download the sofi app and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right.

welcome back to "fast money. sofi topping the tape today, soaring to its highest level in more than a year raising full-year revenue guidance thanks to surging deposits and demand for personal loans. the ceo laying out a path to profitability for the company's financial service segment. >> so, the lending business on a contribution profit basis has been very profitable the technology business also pretty profitable but we made a big investment in the last five years in building out the number of checking, savings accounts and acquiring them, as well as credit card and invest >> how does this translate to the other stocks in the space, dan? >> really interesting, and the dynamics around the student loan repayment, everything, it's giving them a wind in their sales. i think anthony has been really surgical in how they've built the business away from that core

so kudos to them p paypal, coin, block, they were down 80% or so, and some have had bigger runs. paypal is the one to me, it trades below market multiple the stock was down 7%, 8%. you just buy it. it kept going lower, of course, and i did buy it and it got back to these levels. it is right back at those levels. >> it trades well below market multiple i think this one probably sets up okay here and i think it has valuation support. this is the one i'm most focused on this week >> i'm long paypal i've been long for probably six weeks. i think it's going higher. we've seen major stabilization venmo is still a case where people really think they were losing margins, there was questions about the number of accounts of all the megacap tech stocks who have done nothing, this is a business that is very solid and

given very little credit >> 86 was one of the closing lows in march of 2020. think about that to dan's point, we reached all those levels but that's where it should sort of trend back up to, percentage-wise, from here, it's a decent move. probably go higher >> yeah, julie, are you also fanboying on pay wall? >> i'd be more comfortable with paypal than sofi sofi has set up interesting dynamics in its business it's never been through a recession and so we don't know the quality of their underwriting it is great for them to say, our book looks great, but it's hard to know until it gets stressed i think paypal has really started to make inroads, particularly on the e-commerce side you are seeing more and more of it so, they're proving a relatively good competitor to shopify so, there's still a lot of potential in there >> a lot of the space hasn't gone through a recession, though paypal has but others have not. and so, i mean, how much of that

should factor in the average credit score for sofi, like, the new direct deposit accounts, 747. which is really high >> when you mention recession -- >> sounds like your s.a.t. score. >> probably higher >> julie didn't get the memo about the recession. >> 747 >> for just mantth, i mean >> you double it, you get 1500 >> anyway. >> julie didn't get the memo, there's no recession it's never happening again so, these companies -- >> right, i forgot >> it's interesting what happened to buy now, pay later, the financing models some of them did not hold up so, again, you know, maybe these guys have figured out. the one thing about sofi, if they are a gateway drug to this consumer is refinancing a college loan, i think generally they have a higher fico score than -- probably better credit than -- >> good point. all right, coming up, we're diving into the options pits to get a read on the huge slate of consumer earnings this week.

we'll zero in on one name that could be able to brew up some big gains. >> wonder who that's going to be >> more "fast money" in two. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today. islet in rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. clink! dr. marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift.

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welcome back sneak peek at the kramer cam jim is sitting down with the ceo of agriculture equipment maker cnh industrial you can catch the full interview at the top of the hour on "mad money." we have a huge slate of earnings ahead amazon, doordash, uber, airbnb and starbucks on deck. why many names have rallied, starbucks is relatively flat will this week's numbers get the stock percolating higher tim? >> i hope not. i think they're going to do what they did in q-1. they're going to talk about stagnating growth. they're going to talk about margin pressure and i think they've had a great environment for pricing power, and i think some of that is in their fay voir i'm long 25% of my original position i sold puts and probably got some of that put back to me after selling calls into that number in other words, i want to own it lower, i think i will.

95 is where you want to own starbucks. either way, i think it's a great stock to own there's nothing broken here, but it's been a very strong run off of a terrible bottom >> yeah, julie >> i think what's interesting about this business is trying to figure out how much productivity they can get out of their existing stores, and what's going to happen in china, and so, if you own this business, you have to have a pretty strong point of view on both of them, because they mean so much for margins and top line growth, and so, their model that they set out in their analyst date to me looks pretty aggressive, and so, investor expectations are fairly high particularly in terms of guidance so, that's going to be make or break for the stock going forward. >> what is your outlook, guy >> it's hauntingly familiar to, like, a nike, for example, they traded pretty similarly and probably they should a lot of china exposure. i'm with tim on this one 26 times next year's is not ridiculous for starbucks, but might be expensive in this environment, so, i think you are waiting for an entry level

same way tim is waiting for the high 90s in nike, i think you are waiting for probably the low 90s for starbucks. >> costing are coming down everything but wages >> they are. >> but if you think about, that is the stickiest part of th their -- >> right >> of their expense profile. and it's the part that i think is actually what we haven't really priced in they were able to raise prices to keep pace with that wage gain, and we adon't need to get into my -- >> $4.23 large coffee with nothing else in it, no shots -- >> why are you looking at me why do you bring me into the conversat conversation if you see me at starbucks -- >> peach tee >> get me a medicine ball. >> what's a medicine ball? >> old school starbucks. >> off the menu or something crazy. >> i don't know what you're talking about. >> now you're going to have america looking for it one options trader is betting earnings could drew up more losses for the stock mike khouw has the action. >> yeah, so, the options market right now implying a move of 5%,

that's sleight lyslightly more 4% last may when they reported, they dropped to 9% following that result. the most active contracts were the september 80 and 90 puts that's a result of a purr chaste of the 90.80 one by two put spread it didn't really cost them a lot, since they were selling two of those 80s for every 90 they bought it's a low cost way to make a downside bet and then get long at that $80 level if it really did decline between now and september expiration >> sounds like a tim seymour trade. >> exactly what you want to do >> look, if mike says it's a good trade, i'm following. >> it's also the sort of trade that lines up, i think, with your view, the way the stock is trading there. if it goes sideways, you don't have a lot of risk on. >> yep >> mike, thank you mike khouw for more options action, tune into the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, final trades.

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time for the final trade let's go arne thound the horn. >> it's been a real death of insur tech the 50% margins to prove it. >> tim >> bem if you look at a double bottom, carter talked about this on the oa, but maybe on our show. back in october, and here in march and even last couple weeks, em. >> dan >> yeah, tim's paypal, if you are looking to pay into the print, the calls are pretty cheap, 3%. >> big week for earnings, mel, as you know. as a big week if you are a baseball fan, which you are. in the short time that we have left, if you are mets senior management, are you moving verve verlander for the right piece? >> if you are yankees senior management, why aren't you selling, as well >> maybe it will be reminisce sant of 2016 >> just acknowledge the fact the

team's going nowhere the mets did >> have they >> not fun, but we're looking in the mirror >> we don't have that much time. >> breaking out after a 15-year bear market. back to you. >> all right, thank you for watching "fast money." we'll see you back here at 5:00 my mission is simple, to make you money. there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. mad money starts now. welcome to mad money. my job, not just to entertain, but educate. call me at one 807 43 cnbc or tweet me. ever