watcher. you know, i think they helped me along the way. that's how i learned socialization, i think, from looney tunes tyler is back tomorrow thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to closing bell. this make-or-break hourstarts with some turbulence as high are bond yield, and more helps indexes toward their worst day in months. s&p 4511 was the low of the day. the nasdaq has the underperformer leading to the down side, about 80% of all volume is negative today on the new york stock exchange take a look at treasuries. that's part of the story as

well ten-year yield up about 4.08 a lot of that gain in the yields in the long end happened with a stronger than expected payrolls report we also had recent indications of higher oil prices, maybe some inflation concerns so a lot of things in the mix, of course, with along with the fitch downgrade of the u.s. federal debt that all brings us to our talk of the tape, where we ask -- is this a routine shakeout in stock after the powerful monday bimonth rally, or the sign of a much tougher tape ahead? here with us is josh brown josh, we can write it any way w like sentiment was frosty, technicals were stretched something will come along to maybe create an air pocket on the other hand we had a lot of bears capitulating, the

economy looks strong, everybody agree with his that, so we have the makings of a perfect evenic top. where along the spectrum would you set yourself >> wow, as someone who is really good at explaining what just happened, i would say that this is not -- this is not very much much more complicated than sell the news you had a huge run adjust into the earnings season. we're in the middle of it. i think we're on track to see a 67% decline in earnings for the s&p 500, which was the expectation for this quarter weefd 51% of s&p companies report earnings, and you have 80% of these companies beating on earnings, which is the highest number we have seen in seven quarters so you're getting those good results, that was the reason for this huge rally we've had since may. okay

we have had them now you're seeing with companies with decelerating revenue growth still beating on margins. companies reporting a beat on earning, and a lot of my companies have beat and fallen the five-year average is plus one. so it's not even an environment that's rewarding better than

expected reports if we just accept that, that we've had a lot of the run-ups and just getting the news. i think it's a better take than uh, oh, something has materially changed, because we're still in an up trent. you really have to pull the lens back and you can see that. >> the trend has not encouraging. we've been rotating around the markets. i was pointing out earlier that the lows today, and where we're trading right now is the 20-day average, if you said to be a scalper, short-term trader, that's what you look at. on the other hand, the sweet spot that the market has been in, where essentially we got comfortable that companies will make their numbers, the companies seem far away from recession, and yields weren't doing a lot, maybe there's more complication here.

sweet spot looks a bit less sweet. >> it almost seems like their intention is to influence the negotiations in congress we basically have gone 20 years letting the fed work about the budget, but none of that has been the reason to stop investing. the spending has gotten out of control, the stimulus plans are creating more input, fine. that's okay. i don't think it's the main things here. what's most interesting, at least to me is the steepening every treasury yielding three years or less is down. every treasury bond yielding five years or more is up, the

ten-year, two-year spread is down to minus 0.82, the least inverted since the failure of silicon valley bank. to me that is the big story. it's only 14 basis points away from the 2022 highs, that's a good story sure, let's hear what jamie dimon had to say, about some other make roe issues. >> it doesn't really matter that much the markets decide number two, they point out some issues, which we all knew about, with our debt ceiling crisis, but the american public -- this is the most prosperous nation on the plant et

it's the most secure nation, and i would point out, if i could, there's a bunch of other countries rated higher, but they live under the american military enterprise system. it's kind of ridiculous. let's bring in liz it's hard to idea that fitch or a rating agency in general will not tell the world how to view the u.s., but it's a bit of an occasion to take notice. in terms of fiscal position, the state of the economy, sustainability of current trends how do you think about this? >> this is not surprising stuff. we knew debt was high. we created debt to cover everything we have done, to save us from disaster a la march of this year, so i don't think it's a huge surprise. i would agree with josh and jamie, it's not that big of a

deal it's one rating agency, one step downward i think the bigger risk right now, when we knew the debt ceiling happened, we kind of kicked it down the road. we have not entirely resolved that issue i think we probably will resolve it, but that doesn't mean it will come without conflict it always seems to happen when there's already volatility in the market and we find out at the 11th hour. eyes on october or november for that >> i agree most people i think agree this is not in itself much of a change of the outlook or reason to incrementally worry that being said we have the market down 1% since may, so clearly, even if it's a convenient excuse or just a coincidence, we were in a place

where the market had some pent-up selling to do. >> well, i think it was pent-up valuation, right if you just look at the broad indices, the dow is down less than the nasdaq. the russell is down more than the 17, so the stuff that had run and had a good july is given back some of that. i think that's very natural, healthy. even if you're a bull in this market, these little pullbacks are good it gets you back to more of a right-sized price and gets you back to a valuation where, if you missed it and you want to be in, you have an opportunity. again, i think it's healthy. the question that continues to be further and further away, at least for me is, will this be the beginning of a deeper pullback, something that gets added on to with credit issues, or something that could happen in fall and surprise us from the fed? >> sure. i guess, josh, to that point, in

theory there's a lot of house money that's been built up so far this year. the total run in the s&p went above 20%, up 31% from the lows. even if you look back farther, the five and ten-year annualized returns, it's like 12.5 period of time. so, for selling off on good edges, at least in the short term, and everyone seems to like the market after they were expecting a retest of the lows for the start of the year, how does that shape up for you >> i think today is what the old-timers would call an inside-out day 20 best-performing stocks in the s&p 500 this year have gained on average of 83% that's an average. a lot have more than doubled go down the list eight are tech, one communication and more, it's pretty broad-based if you think about an inside-out

day, it's like all counter-trends stop going on. the reality is liz is right. if you've been out of this market, you're watching it tick up day after day after day, this is what you want to have happened, i don't care what aberc abercrombie & fitch this is, this is an opportunity to get long if unfortunately to use a moving average, where the buyers step in, that's fine, i don't have a progress with that, but we'll go ahead through inch, where we basically have had a trough corner.

i think people will go to the end of the year, feeling positive about that, not knowing where earnings will trend, but probably not down. >> i'm just going to walk by you invoking old-timers. i know that was directed at me, but that's okay, josh -- >> no, not you never you. >> yeah, got it. liz, i did mention earlier if you looked at the tick by tick of how treasury yields traded, it was actually yields we also want to take it with a grain of salt. last month it was wildly off but make the market is saying, are we going to bet twice in a row that it's a couple hundred thousands jobs off for friday's

jobs report? i bring that up only to say, just as everybody was glad we got soft landing conditions, maybe it's looking less soft then we're gearing up. >> well, if you look at just the ways things usually happen, so if -- if you're bold and you think that 2022 was the correction we needed, that's over, right? now we're in the third quarter of negative earns growth it wasn't so great, but wasn't so bad if both of those things are foretelling what should happen in the economy, had tonight be that big of a pullback we haven't seen it yet, but it's still probably going to happen josh mentioned this earlier,

levin is missing more often than earnings companies have to manage that really, really well with their operating costs. they usually don't manage that well that usually does bleed into the economy, because we're so driven by consumption, so i would expect a contraction in that case, the fed doesn't have to do much more it worked. i'm still not sold it's over every time i'm on a program, i talk about it, but they keep me up at night. it's there's something wrong there. it's not functioning as it should if we can resteepen without page, i will absolutely accept defeat and say, you know what? it didn't happen. >> we're still within spot lag period of when we can get an

inverted yield curve so we'll see josh, you were going to say? >> i just -- i would point out something really interesting i think a lot of people are starting to pick up on, if you are a wealthy person -- let's you says upper middle class. upper middle class, and you don't have floating rate debt, which most people don't, it's very likely if you're carrying a mortgage, you refinanced that when it was basically 2% or 3% to do so if you are in that situation and you have cash, higher rates actually have acted as economic stimulus s if you're not facing a situation where fed funds affect you negatively, and again upper middle class, they don't carry credit card balances, what are they doing right now this is -- this is exactly

what's happening that really was hard to foresee in advance, but if you talk to old-time -- sorry, mike -- old-timers who were rich in the early '80s, they would tell you the same thing. they didn't have credit card debt, and they weren't looking for a new mortgage that's why every single person you know this summer is in the south of france cleaning out the chanel store they're in amalfi, puglia. that's what people are doing when they have cash. you're not seeing any kind of slowdown in their consumption. if anything, you're getting a double wealth effect, stocks and yields i don't know what the fed does about that i think it's something we should start thinking about >> yeah, there's no doubt about it it's a major offset. in fact, i think it was the

"wall street journal" that almost equal the amount of increasing interest expense that tends to fall most heavily on people who are net borrowers and not net savers yes, those people in the stock market probably have had a windfall, to some degree, of income liz, this bit of market roll tilt also comes after a period where we saw massive short covering in fact the most active in a long time, and a run in the meme stocks. it seems very textbook in a lot of ways. people started to get over-excited the silly stuff started to run a bit and now you're see all the stuff getting wiped out. so this is concerned of a healthy gut check. >> it's exuberance you're not really sure why, but everybody piles on

p/e ratios are a terrible timing mechanism, but they do a decent job of telling us the forward expectation. the p/e suggests an annualized return for next ten years is 3. -- 3.6% we need a pullback or earnings to go gang busters to justify that i want those valuations and that particular ratio to suggest better returns for the next ten years. >> and here we go, to your point. s&p making session lows, 4510, down about 1.4% as wesit here and talk about it. liz, josh, thanks very much. by the way, josh, as you know, i'll see you friday for a cnbc special, "taking stock." we'll be together for the full

hour 6:00 p.m. this friday right here on cnbc. thank you both. our question of the day -- where is the best place to invest right now stocks bonds? cash real estate? head to x, formerly twitter, to vote let's get a check on top stocks as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is here with that. hey, kristina? >> we have a couple tech etfs i want to get to, in danger of the semiconductor is down over 3% so far, on pace for back-to-back losses you see can see the and

sky also down over 3%. uponen paycom is weighing it on it mike >> kristina, thank you very much we'll talk soon. we are just getting started here up next, much more from the exclusive interview with jamie dimon. his takes on the banks, regulation and the overall market all the highlights after this break. the dow is down 350. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back to "closing bell." jamie dimon sat down with our leslie picker for an exclusive cnbc interview within the past hour leslie joins us live from montana with the highlights. >> you can potential see jamie behind me. he's on his annual bus tour, hosteling a luncheon with clients here in montana. it was a wide-ranging interview. it's a proposal at this stage, but he says the banking industry has so many rules, but very

little calibration >> we need certainty, policy, the stress test clearly didn't work, so we do 100 a week, and i'm far more worried about cyber, and i just think -- we don't have -- we shouldly veg regular conversations about what we're worried about, what they're worried about, so lack of transparency with prael practitioners. a lot of ivory towers, they've never been in the real world i would like to see them get in the boxes ring someday. >> while fed officials would say that heightened capital requirements were important for stability, dimon believes the march and april turmoil would have been have prevented by higher capital rules, but he was critical of the regulators' handling of the silicon valley bank demise. >> i think we made huge mistakes on silicon valley bank, and i

hope the regulators will take a look at that we created a crisis that maybe didn't have to happen. they should be asking questions of themselves. like, whoever we make time on the after-action report, what did we do wrong? how can we do better i don't think we were treat every mistake like a violation of morality or something like that, but i think they should be doing a little soul-searching. >> reporter: he also said we should get rid of the debt ceiling, saying it's always used in a way that makes it very difficult. we need certainty in the world and should have more of it mike >> leslie, somewhat familiar themes that he's hit on over the years, in terms of the risk of perhaps a higher bond yield interest rate environment in general, but also potentially

the less regulated sectors of finance. i was interesting in what he had to say about the private capital, private credit markets and what that could mean about general economic stability >> reporter: yeah, he said basically with higher capital rules, a lot of the business will be moved over into the non-bank financials and lesser regulated area private equity hedge funds would be dancing in the streets if these proposals came to pass that's been the criticism from a lot 1/2 banking industry just this idea that when you reg white too much, the entities that are already enduring a lot of regulation, you move business, you move that lending into areas that have less oversight. of course, the s.e.c. is trying to change that somewhat, but that's been the criticism from the banks side >> yeah, and, you know, he even mentioned bank mortgages coming into that category of non-bank

origination. >> reporter: um-hmm. >> also, he seemed relatively comfortable with the current condition of the economy, talking about consumers seem like they're in decent shape, so programs these a little -- he spoke to that. he said the economy here is resilient. to your point, he really believes that the strength of the consumer, the fiscal spending, all of that is keeping the economy on a solid trajectory he thinking it could be stronger if there weren't regulation. he noted the risks he had in the past of course, that's q.t., the geopolitical situation specifically, the war in ucranes, those are some of the risks he's focused on. but overall, i agree with you, his tone and tenor was quite

positive. >> good conversation thank you, leslie. up next, we're setting you up for a busy afternoon of earnings dan is standing by disney having a tough day, and new reporting this hour on the fate of espn those details when "closing bell" returns. that's what you get from the morgan stanley client experience. you get listening more than talking, and a personalized plan built on insights and innovative technology. you get grit, vision, and the creativity to guide you through a changing world. ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

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basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

index at the lows of the day. the s&p 500 right above the 4500 level, down about a percent and a half on the day. meantime paypal sinking as well, as they gear up to report earnings in overtime that's one of the deeper look into the digital side. with what to expect. dan, good to see you

the stock has been in the wilterness for a while, but what can we expect this afternoon >> i think the key thing that killed the stock in the first quarter was down, is that -- they have two ecosystems, the branded checkout and because unbranded is going five times faster they could do at least double digits available, and if we see the abate a bit -- >> is it not a concern even if it is then losing market share to themselves? >> yeah. they might not be losing market share, but i think they have to be in that space

>> it's. >> i do want to hit robinhood. we have been seen a -- and the rest of it, so what's the setup in surprisingly, we talked about it, but they're gaining share from coin base >> that being set. contract volumes are coming down >> it's the margin growth, because they're saving a lot of money and also retirement. if they give you a few and. >> yeah, i guess the bid is to

broading it out. i do want to hit on sofi being rebound on their numbers >> i think it's actually -- you haven't even sigh the start of what's going to happen here. this is like the next jpmorgan in the future. branchless, getting a ton of deposits 350 to 400 billion none of this is in consensus right now. >> stock is trading down today, but in three months, you told us that three months ago. it's one of best banks out there. we'll see if that continues. dan, good to see you thank you. up next, we're tracking the

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just about 20 minutes until the closing bell the dow is down about is%.

kristina has a look at key stocks to watch. >> humana, shares of the health insurer are surging, and the forecast of expanding medicare advantage business but, on the other end of the spectrum, solar edge, as they missed estimates it's down almost 18%, while the revenue missed, they are concerned about revenue current guidance among waning solar demand kristina, thank you. new reporting on the future of espn and search for minority partners alex alex sherman has the details what's the latest? >> it was last month that bob

iger had an intersaying he was looking for strategic pattern. about ten days ago i broke the store that espn has been in talks with the major leagues as potential partners, the leagues themselves would take stakes you can add the nhl to that, too, i found out even informally, in recent years, there's been advice about what to do with spend. i'm told a whole spin of espn isn't off the table if they can't find a good minority partnership, but they are focused on what bob iger wants here, which is to keep a

majority cross of espn, and then find majority stakehow olders, whether or not it's the leagues or someone else. >> clearly all of the questions around such an arrangement have been raised. other networks are also in there as well, so presumably some kind of participation -- has anything happened since then that makes that scenario seem more or less likely to you? >> well i can't comment on it from the leagues' perspective. i talk about it in the story on cnbc.com there's still a lot of reasons why they wouldn't go down this path you risk bidding rights here

if you stake a stake in espn, you can give them preferential treatment. what i do think has maybe changed a little bit, in part with the news in and out that iger seems committed to doing something with espn, and that's new. for years, bob iger has resisted doing anything with espn now there's a realization, even at iger's level, this is a drag, so doing nothing is actually a negative to the stock moving forward, so we kind of boxed into a position that so many have canceled traditionally cable tv, which, by the way, also a little nugget for you, i'm told that direct-to-consumer espn probably won't be launched

either this year or next, so we're talking 2025 or beyond >> there's almost no doubt that the valuation gets a bit punished based on their exposure to the linear ecosystem. alex, thanks so much we'll talk soon. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked, where is the best place to invest right now -- stocks, bonds, cash or real estate teth bu e sus,threlt afr isreak i was having relationship issues with my old bank. next to no interest, the fees... it was just take, take, take. so i broke up with bad banking and moved to sofi checking and savings. now i get higher interest, pay no account fees, and get my paycheck two days early. get up to 4.40% apy, pay no account fees, and up to $2m in fdic insurance.

download the sofi app and earn up to $250 when you set up direct deposit. sofi get your money right. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call

coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

well, let's get the results

of our question of the days -- where is the best place to investment right now the clear winner is stocks, everybody wants to buy this dip. after this break, the earnings rundown the key things and figures to watch. that and much more when we take you "iidthmaetonnse e rk ze.

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to help break down today and we're watching two reports in overtime today. contessa brewer on what to expect, and kristina partsinevelos keeping an eye on qualcomm you've been positioned more defensively coming into this how do you view today's action >> we're not surprised at all. we're through the phase where people pay ever-higher multiples, and now you kind of go right back to, all right, we've had a lot of things play out better than feared, but you know and i know we can go from better than feared to not as good as expected in these markets. i think that's probably what we're in store for in august and september. >> what about the other side of investors paying higher

valuations for what they consider to be a rising stream of earnings, at least looking into next year it seems as if you can explain the trade, inflation coming down more than the economy has been weakening. it looks like earnings are perhaps on the upswing again. >> sure, that would be great the tricky part is if we look at both 2023 and 2024 consensus estimates for the s&p they're both flat, right that's what you would expect environmentalually earnings have got to improve the tricky part is they're not again, we're just in this space where people are enjoying the fact that things could have been worse up to this point we appreciate the fact that wile e. coyote might be slinking into the canyon at a slower pace,, but unfortunately he's still falling, so we don't want to play that game. >> how bad do you think things will be? are you pushing against the even

merging consensus that a recession is not on the horizon? >> we are still in the recession camp, and the reason is that's the only way to solve for inflation. otherwise you'll have a fed that is forced to go further. if they are forced to go further, that sets higher rates, will drag that ten-year higher every time north of 4%, there's multiples. for all the different reasons, about the only way this really works out in a positive way is if recession comes sooner, and then the fed can actually cut rates. >> you say it's still time to stay defensive in equities and fixed income just quickly, what does that mean specifically in each asset class? >> sure. within equities, we would stay up in market caps. we like the sector mix and the quality characteristics. we like the u.s. over

international, so we stick with that theme, too. the sectors are energy, materials and health care. thief left behind, so maybe take a look at those. this is now the time to be chasing yield and, you know, we like treasuries, and at these higher levels, we would be locking them in long time. sameer, we appreciate the update thank you. contessa, on mgm, what are we looking for? >> in focus is the macau performance, it's up more than 4,000% there's a lot riding on what mgm has to say about that. that's year on year. with all the skepticism on the china ease consumer, the question we want to hear from bill hornbuckle, is, are they going to keep spending to the world's biggest gaming capital we're also looking at the second quarter performance in the u.s.

in vegas with tough year-on-year comps. we got bullish information yet from scaesar's ceo, and i'm hearing a lot of whisper about m&a. bill hornbuckle tried to put the speculation to bed earlier this year, saying he would put those attempts in the rear-view mirror, though he added "for now. we'll have to see how it goes, mike. >> when it comes, contessa to las vegas, an to a degree macau, investors have been trying to figure out peak lodging demand, the peak desire to get away. what can we glean so far from what some of the gaming companies -- >> you notice, the two biggest operators in terms of footprint are mgm resorts and caesars.

what we heard from the ceo of caesars last night, he says we think we'll get a 5% lift, and the forward books for super bowl in february are way ahead of where they would be and at rates far higher than typical. so he said when you lee it can kind of displacement, the higher spending customers, you're displacing the lower segment lien if you get fewer visitors into vegas, they're spending more >> formula one, football and taylor swift is driving it this summer contessa, thanks so much let's go to kristina on qualcomm >> qualcomm has already set up investors with two warnings. first juan weak smartphone sales. they're expecting to be worse, so the consensus right now is

handset will fall 1% quarter over quarter the second warning is about inventory levels management had guided for inventory drawdowns for, quote, at least the next couple quarters we're still in the next couple quarters about those warnings out of the way, investors will want to hear more if the market has shown a bottom and how qualcomm can capitalize on a.i. moving forward. that could be a big stream of revenue. the tech can even help run require july apps. one quick action, though, no qualcomm insider has sold shares since mid february, that's five months

as we head into the close, a little over -- over a minute left, wire on pace to post the first loss sin may 23rd. also, the vote tilt index. >> at least for now, the s&p has been hovering most of the day at this left to 20-day moving average. though it has been a pretty broad-based sell offtoday, about 90%. it has been to the down side not exactly a washout, but pretty good short-term shake out. >> people have been reassessing

valuation, and the short-term yields have remained, with the federal fund outlook that the doll it that's going to do it for "ome, over to jon fortt and morgan brennan in "overtime." web tolcome to "closing bel overtime >> and on the we'll talk to the head of rxo, falling heart today.