good thursday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with julia boorstin today expedia's chief peter kern will join us in a few moments. a krnks exclusive as that stock is getting flipped after earnings. banana boat with results out and the ceo coming up. morgan stanley's wealth management on reasons to get bearish quickly in this market. stocks are extending

yesterday's drop as the yields rise, the s&p and nasdaq are now on pace for their worst week since march. >> interesting action in bonds as the ten gets back to 4.2. weird. today we got decent productivity data, labor costs were okay, and then prices paid on the ism back to the highest levels since april. so the market's sussing out what is the inflation trend right now. >> watching that inflation trend and that commentary we got from warren buffett and his confidence in treasuries and the fact he's going to keep buying is just a question of which treasury >> right and then, of course, a slew of corporate results. we talked media last hour with warner bros. discovery all eyes are on apple and amazon and their commentary about the back drop. >> i think we're going to be seeing the tea leaves of amazon and what we'll see in the next quarter. i think that's important. >> very big night of results coming their way ahead of the jobs number. despite our next guest

pointing out warning signs in the market, he's not bearish saying the market has not broken down but that could change quickly. joining us is morgan stanley's vp of investment jim good to see you back. >> good to see you, carl and julia. >> you got the s&p up 10-plus at the end of the year at the end of july. historically that's been pretty good for the full year do you see land mines in the remaining months >> well, there's land mines, road bumps, speed bumps, there's volcanos, all sorts of things out there, ka recall look at the chart technically, as you mentioned, they look okay although they were starting to leak weak but they've been okay. and then you look atle things like consumer sentiment and the stock market it's perfect it's like a normeanother man rol painting under the surface it's like salvador dali. you have manufacturing on a downturn, consumers that have

chopped away at their savings and are now using more and more credit cards those delinquencies are startin to go up, bankruptcies are starting to go up. to make it all worse, we have $1 trillion of treasury at the same time you have a debt downgrade finally you have that seasonality, that time frame between august 1st and mid-october where the markets run into speed bumps and land mines. there's a lot of reasons to be concerned. as i mentioned, the charts haven't broken down yet. i'm not in there shorting things yet. it's -- i would say it's more of a perilous situation we have seen and a lot of canaries are coughing in the coal mine. it feels like a covid ward in there. >> where do you think the pain point truly is on the ten-year is it 4.25 do you have to take out last year's highs >> we can see the pain point now, yeah. maybe it's 4.25.

but it's within eyesight now it hasn't been for quite some time not to mention the fact, carl, that the yield curve is still steeply inverted which also points to recession. it's almost in terms of the rate structure, it's almost the worst of all worlds. a lot of this market rally has been on the idea of a pivot. look at oil prices look at other commodity prices they're trending up. i think this idea that inflation is really ramping down and everything's going to be hunky-dory for the fed, it's a little premature there >> where do you see the opportunity right now? are you bullish on energy? >> i am bullish on energy. if you look at the rig count, it's way down from a year ago. and saudi is cutting production again. and then you look at what people are doing. they're using energy i mean, look at the travel stocks look at the cruise line stocks look at the airline stocks look at the crowds over in europe, the crowds in italy.

you're seeing people travel. they're using energy at the same time it's still somewhat of a mixed signal because europe, japan, and china are all bearing towards recession. so, it's a real muddy picture. that's why i'm telling investors, don't try to be a hero don't take extra risk here this market has rallied. energy is different. i like energy because it didn't participate in the rally up until about a month and a half ago. they started to turn back higher and the earnings profile with energy prices now over 80 whereas a month ago we were in the high 60s the earnings picture is going to be improving for these companies. >> jim, i know morgan stanley, i think the house view for the jobs number tomorrow is around 190. i wonder what you think the market wants do we want cooler labor to take the edge off inflation or are we

worried about employment growth at this point? >> carl, that's a great question because i think wall street has now kind of veered back towards back news is good news where bad news was bad news before and good news is good news i think bad news is good news now because we're worried about the rate structure not only because of the sheer amount of issuance we have but because if the fed continues this hiking pace and the yield curve stays so inverted, that's going to be problematic for the banks, for lending we're already seeing senior loan officers say they're tightening credit if you get bad news into a cycle where they're already tightening credit, that might send a message the fed can back off for investors, it sure -- it sent an alarm bell because we pushed these valuations so high and because this hasn't been, because of earnings growth, it's been because of multiple

expansion. >> mike wilson has made that part clear over the past few quarters jim, good to talk to you see you next time. >> back to bad news is bad news. we'll have to get over to apple this morning they are getting ready to release earnings this afternoon. that is expected to post another quarterly decline in revenues. steve kovach joins ahead of that report. >> the third quarterly revenue decline in a row for apple that's what we're expecting. that's largely due to tough demand through the macro environment through the first half of the year and it's not enough to make up -- despite the growth we've been seeing in countries like india, indonesia, they're talking about that story of growth in emerging markets but not enough to make up for what we've seen following demand

in china and the united states we are expecting some green chutes and return to growth as we saw from meta and google last week is coming back to the app store and possibly a resurgence in gaming. like you were saying earlier in the show, julia, it's the outlook for the current quarter and beyond that everyone will be hanging onto apple doesn't give formal guidance but they get some sign posts of where things are headed morgan stanley analysts, for example, are looking for a stronger than expected guide with return to double digit percentage growth for the services business. of course, we're here in the september quarter, julia, that means new iphones expected to go on sale the last two or three weeks of the quarter so there's a little boost there also just the state of the economy. what does tim cook and his cfo say about what they're seeing that's divergent of this weak data over in china, hugely important market for them, and this kind of positive data we

keep getting here in the united states, is demand going to return, is that macro environment improving? >> the chinese market has been so important for apple that if we'll see a tale of two different economies when it comes to consumer demand, is that going to really impact apple going forward. is the u.s. consumer going to be ready to pay up and buy another iphone when it comes out in september? i mean, is there a sense that this next cycle could be so robust as these iphone costs inch up? i was in an apple store. these phones are getting more and more expensive. >> yeah, there are some reports, julia, they might raise the prices on at least the pro line of their new iphones this year of course, that might be good for them what they learned last year was the demand for the pros are much higher than the so-called regular iphones. maybe they have some pricing power there. i'll point back to what we learned from qualcomm warning of a huge drop in smartphone demand they mostly deal with android

devices for their processors the question is, are we going to see that split again where android demand might be falling but iphone is gaining market share versus the android. >> thanks so much, steve. still to come this morning, an exclusive with the ceo of edgewell personal care the company that makes things like edge razors and banana boat sunscreen. out with earnings this morning. we'll get results from warner bros. and expedia, one of the biggest laggards ceo peter kern is with us in a w mes.femont (fan #1) there ya go! that's what i'm talkin' about! (josh allen) is this your plan to watch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is? myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them.

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take a look at shares of warner discovery losing as early morning gains trading pretty much flat the company missing on the top and bottom lines actually lost 2 million of its global direct-to-consumer subscribers after launching its max streaming service in may the company announcing a tender offer that aims to pay down as much as $2.7 billion in debt they paid up $1.6 billion in debt in q2 and previously announced a $500 million tender offer in june. carl, they have paid off $9 billion leading up to this it's so interesting watching this company post-merger,ist so much about the debt load, concerns about the debt load but the free cash flow was so much higher than expected and $1 billion more in free cash flow than a year ago. >> we've been talking about where the cash piling up because production costs essentially went to zero in some cases the question is how expensive

will it be if they get the chance to start that engine up again, right >> i don't think it's going to be that much more expensive. a lot of people have been asking me whether the terms they have to agree to -- in order to make a compromise with the writers guild and the actors guild is going to be so much more expensive in terms of paying greater fees for streaming rights i think that's less rel vabt than looking at long-term impact on consumer behavior coming out of the strike. yes, they'll be paying more but i expect they will pay more in success. >> the notable thing is the tone in their comments about the dispute is much different than we heard from, say, disney, right? it's more about urgency to get this thing fixed one way or another. >> trying to be conciliatory, saying they want it resolved the fact the writers will be sitting down this friday, tomorrow, seems like a good sign. shifting gears here, we're going to stick with earnings and look at edgewell personal care,

the company behind brands like banana boat, chic razors, forecasting earnings for the fiscal year towards the higher end of guidance. the stock is up over 2% and we have joining us in an cnbc exclusive, edgewell personal care ceo rob little. thanks for joining us today. >> good morning. thanks for having me >> what do you see as the key factor driving the beat here and what's your outlook for consumer demand? are people going to keep buying if they're traveling more, buying more sunscreen? >> yes, julia, they have been. the consumer has been resilient. we've been talking about that all year i think there's a projection that the consumer is going to come under pressure at some point in the near future we haven't seen that to this point. the consumer has been resilient. i think you've heard others say that that's certainly what we have seen whoa have broad based strength across our portfolio that's what's driving our results. we have a grooming business we

acquired over the last couple of years. it didn't exist in our portfolio. jack black, bulldog. it's now approaching 10% of our portfolio next year. banana boat, hawaiian tropics grew 13% in the quarter and we're seeing strength outside of the united states. we grew 2% in the quarter in the u.s., 2.3%, and we grew almost 9% outside of the united states. we're seeing consumer demand accelerate in our categories outside of the united states. >> i know there's some commentary on japan going maskless in the quarter meaning men will have to buy more razors to shave there curious in terms of the outlook, in terms of all the conversation about inflation, rising commodity prices how are you doing in terms of price elasticity we just discussed with kellogg at the end of last hour >> the price elasticity commentary that i picked up there, very consistent with us we have some categories where we

priced up and we've not seen any meaningful falloff in volume or demand for our products. our grooming categories, sun care, all low elasticity where we're starting to see a little elasticity is shaving it's still a very competitive category as we raised price a couple of times over the last couple of years, we've seen some small elasticity increases i think the category we're seeing the biggest differential between myself and volume. shaving is primarily price driven over volume. >> not every consumer company can say that i'm curious about, i've been watching some marginal degradation in travel intent i wonder what the correlation is between travel and some of the sun care units >> well, i just came back from a vacation to greece the planes were full, the beaches were full. sun care usage was up.

you saw it so, when people travel, they typically travel to water. when people travel to water, our brands win we have occasion based brands. leading brands in u.s., banana boat and hawaiian tropics. we're up double digits in the u.s. in sun care outside of the u.s. we were up 20% as you are seeing a global return to travel and people going to resort destinations, which drives our sales the reopening which is now a couple years into it, we see as continuing, in addition to a lifestyle change where people are spending more focus on preserving their skin. sun damage is the number one driver of aging of skin. so there's been awareness and a usage with sunscreen at a level higher than the pandemic we think that's durable. >> this generation gets that in ways that the prior ones arguably didn't. also i wonder how you are thinking about the ad market and whether or not now is the time to sort of step on the gas and

whether or not a.i. is allowing you to target better, especially in shave >> yeah, it is the time, i think, to step on the gas, depending on the category and the country you're in. we look at category country combinations before we choose to invest so, we're leaning in in some markets, we're pulling back in some others. for example, sun care, you work out of product to sell and it's pointless to lead on the gas in that case. we're leveraging a.i. not only for productivity but how we look at data and analytics do better targeting. with the personalization of the content we can serve up and offer. it doesn't mean actually that you have to spend more

certainly it's becoming more micro. >> we heard companies talking about driving a.i. in that ad space. rodr rod little, thank you. ceo of expedia is coming up on results and how the company is using a.i. to help improve the travel experience. stock is getting dinged this morning, though, after a slight revenue miss and a drop in bookings. we're watching sun run, surprise profit of shares, the nation's rooftop solar seeing a nearly 80% rally from here don't go away.

we're keeping an eye on etsy, the to stk is on pace for its biggest drop since may 2022. stock is down 12%. the company did report strong results but its outlook was splitly below consensus. morgan stanley and oppenheimer

cutting price targets on etsy this morning we've seen such strength in the consumer, in consumer spending, but i really think it's all about the outlook for the second half of the year and question how much that consumer strength is it going to hold up i think that's most essential for apple. >> it has been a confusing picture today. you look at what etsy said versus what dash said, raising their guidance wayfair is up 20%, so the view on the consumer and goods spending is not at all clear it appears to be coming a lot more down to execution. >> i mean, execution but also demand for the types of products i mean, we'll be talking to expedia coming up. we've seen the surge in travel and where people are spending on travel but consumers want to spend, is it going to be on products from etsy on travel or food >>. >> got to make choices. european market set to close with red arrows across the board. the dax the worst performer off 1% bank of england did drive

today's market action overseas, along with another move from the bank of japan. steve liesman joins us to talk about -- maybe start with boe and what their inflation in growth may do, steve. >> they brought it down a bit, but it's still high. the story is they raised the quarter, which is less than 350 some had been concerned about in the market the vote was 8 to 1 to raise rates but 6 to 3 to raise it by a quarter. two folks on the boe board wanted to raise by 50. one didn't want to raise at all. the question is where is the boe? there's a lot of discussion that they have more work to do in september. i want to show you, carl, real quickly, the three main policy rates out there. you can see the u.s. is, hey, we're number one we have the essential policy rate maybe at or near the endgame

boe close but signaling it has more work to do. ecb also close to the endgame. you can see how much more work there is to do in england, especially when you look at the inflation rates, guys. inflation topping 7% in england, down towards 5.5%. hey, we're number three on the overall year over year inflation rate at 3.1%, at least when it comes to the headline. more work to do here less work to do in england the uk is a special place because it's having the aftereffects of brexit, which is not positive for the economy or inflation. >> what about japan, what are you seeing in terms of the bank of japan intervention? >> you'll notice, julia, i completely left japan off that japan is always its own special case japan is trying to loosen up yield curve control, which essentially to tighten policy but do so in a halting and

somewhat curious way, it raised the limit on its yield curve control. but then came back in and bought bonds earlier this week. it's not entirely clear the drift of policy or at least the strength of the drift of policy. they are going tighter but doing so in a very halting way japan always and ever its own special case that you can't really talk about in the same conversation as you talk about the other three central banks. >> japan, bank of england, staying busy thanks, steve. let's get a news update with bertha coombs. >> the day after russia hit a key grain port in ukraine, the prosecutor's office in kyiv says it's investigating moscow for possible war crimes. ukrainian officials say russia has launched attacks on its agriculture infrastructure since july that's when moscow pulled out of the wartime black sea grain deal, effectively shutting down

ukraine's black sea port ukraine is one of of the world's top grain exporters. a judge delayed jonathan majors' misdemeanor and assault trial today. prosecutors said they needed more time to build their case. police say they arrested the marvel actor last year following a domestic dispute majors has pleaded not guilty to the charges. nasa is one step closer to its next lunar mission the space agency completed its first crude recovery test for the artemis ii mission off the san diego coast. teams practiced how they would extract the four astronauts when they splash down after their mission. they're set to venture around the moon for ten days in november 2024. to the moon for real, carl >> thanks so much, bertha. my family loves to watch that space exploration. we'll be looking forward to that one. coming up after the break, citi downgrading roku saying

investors need to wait until next year to see further gains. qualcomm continues to take it on the chin the stock is hing avits worst day since march of 2020. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term

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watch robinhood today. first profitable quarter on a gap basis but the stock is moving lower as the active users dropped.

revenue came in ahead of expectations interesting metrics on crypto and options and equities, julia, all taking a bit of a hit on less activity. >> and now we're two hours into trading. let's go post to post with bob pisani for a look at what's moving. >> we are trying to rally. we're not far from going positive we were down over 20 points. a lot of earnings today. clorox is number one on the s&p. you don't see clorox move 10% every day. they had inflation, wage inflation, commodity inflation, but they were able to aggressively raise prices. that carried the day gross margins were up overall. for the moment, prices still able to be raised. i think they'll be concerned about cost cutting at some point. i want to highlight the energy sector halliburton, sjb have been strong as oil has moved up hall halliburton with the highest

level but other subsectors have been doing well. the refiners have been doing well this is marathon petroleum this has been on fire for a month. it was $115 a month ago. $136 right now 1$115 to 136 in a month that's a big mover this thing can probably close at an historic high today and then there's the independence exploration production companies out there, big ones pioneer is a favorite of investors for a long time. this has had a great run it was 205 a month ago, now $234 it's been moving up here these e&p companies, exploration production companies, they tend to be proxies for oil. as oil moves up, they tend to move up. that's exactly what's been happening with that group. we're down more than 20 points the key to getting the markets stable is yields

yields have -- bond yields have to start coming down the story here is tomorrow with the jobs report, we're looking for 200,000. we want, bulls want a little weaker number because that would stabilize the market you don't want a 2, you don't want 100,000 if you get 300,000 and we're expecting 200,000, that's going to be a problem. you'll see bond yields move up on that. you need that perfect goldilocks, a little weaker than expected to calm the markets down. >> morgan stanley, 190 we'll see tomorrow bob, thanks. i got chip downgrade from deutsche grabbing our attention. the firm bringing qualcomm to hold from buy, lowering the target to 120. they were at 130 stock already trading below that average disappointing earnings deutsche is putting the blame squarely on the smartphone business, which saw revenues drop 25 year on year saying there are now structural questions rather than cyclical

ones jon fortt is here to help us break down the earnings. cramer took them to the wood shed this morning. >> i didn't so i'm not sure exactly what his points were on that i will say there's a complicated story here of last quarter, this quarter and the future the last quarter, the one they reported, their issue was android overall, right just the overall licensing business didn't do as well as expected because global handsets are weaker can you blame on -- the current quarter they say was the timing of apple's purchases they try not to say apple, they say a modem-only company the timing of their upcoming iphone launch, which will be september, was different than expected they are guiding on what they think is going to happen with the iphone they're guiding on what has tended to happen in the past but it's a little weaker than expected going forward they said they

don't expect a major change in the macro environment. taking a bit longer to work through the existing inventory of smartphone chips out there. the problem with intel, amd and pc chips they have worked through that inventory overhang that is a slog they're working through and qualcomm management saying they're going to do some cuts, which could mean head count reductions in the coming fiscal year to maintain margins in the face of the macro not improving. they're very much, because even though they're talking about iot and automotive, iot is affected by the macro environment automotive still growing double digits year over year, 13% in the quarter they just reported but that's really not enough to counterbalance that huge smartphone business, guys. >> it's so small relative to the smartphone business. what about the uncertainty about qualcomm's ability to maintain the likes of apple and huawei as their customers? >> i think that's maybe a bit less of an issue certainly it's something to be

concerned about. we're really not going to know until we see what apple can deliver in its own modem technology versus qualcomm if apple can't do as well with their own 5g, they'll have to go back to qualcomm it's a fundamental macro economic issue with when the smartphone market recovers, when china recovers and how closely tied handset sales are tied to that apple's iphone is a big hit and outperforms this quarter, that could effect them positively on their 2ct margins. >> interesting we'll learn more tonight, jon. thanks. let's turn to the streaming space. citi downgraded roku to neutral but they do raise their target to 100 after this year's massive runup, more than 120%. they see scope to accelerate in '24 but they say any potential

return to growth is already priced into the stock. i think they went to 100, prior 75 interesting call >> to me this is all about the fact the stock is up 122% year to date. it's been on such a run. it's so much -- sorted of an essential piece of this streaming system roku benefits, they benefit from ad dollars they're exposed to everything else going on in the streaming and media landscape. and if you're going to see all the media companies pull back on ad spending because they maybe don't have so many new shows or movies because of the writers and actors' strike, they'll be impacted by that don't forget, they have this hardware business and they're very confident in the fact that people will be shifting over to streaming and they will benefit from it. but the stock's up so much. >> it's been a remarkable run. we'll watch it. got movers in the restaurant space to get to. a number of fast casual firms starting to show signs of a slowdown in sales. kate rogers just got off the

phone with papa john's >> aim store sales coming in weaker than expected for company-owned and up 2.2% versus estimates of 8.2%. north america franchise locations down 3.2% versus estimates up 0.9%. ceo rob lynch pointed to franchise locations a bit faster than they were at company-owned store in an effort to preserve margins and high inflation this morning lynch telling customers and business are not used to 10% to 15% price increases, adding we've been working with the franchisee highlighting how they can offer promotions online as well as the regular menu price the good news on the back half of the year, lynch told me they're bullish and see deflation in commodities so he added, there's no reason to take price there. and he said they feel confident with domino's as they have been

on the aggregator for years, papa john's, that is the environment has always been competitive. on to shake shack lower this morning with its own same store sales miss comps up 3% versus estimates of 5% the company saying its delivery business has been down a bit as customers are returning more katie fogerty adding as we deepen our footprint, we may see near term traffic offset as those neighborhood deliveries take time to shake out the guidance, tracking, and guidance in both stocks are lower, guys. back over to you. >> so much about the outlook and guidance appreciate it. coming up after the break, expedia ceo peter kern is with us that stock is down 17% after reporting results. we'll be back in two minutes the cloud makes it possible to expand your infrastructure. but to make it powerful enough to connect your data wherever it is,

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ah, these bills are crazy. she

has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back expedia did report results this morning. the stock close to session lows here definitely reacting. our seema mody joins us at post 9 with the ceo. >> let's bring in peter kern, ceo of expedia thank you for joining us on "squawk on the street. >> thanks for having me, seema >> a solid quarter but the street seems to be focused on quarterly bookings which did come in a billion short of consensus. is this further evidence of the

u.s. travel market slowing or something else at play >> no, it was really just a tough comp we're feeling very good about our results, notwithstanding the chart behind you but bebasically came in where we expected we launched our 1q rewards program. we got to where we guided to and we're feeling good about the quarter and the back half of the year we basically reaffirmed our guidance for the back half of the year i think people are looking for issues, but we're feeling quite good about where the business is running. >> that's encouraging. your stock down 16% today. what would you say to those looking at falling hotel daily rates, declining airfare and say this could be a change for people away from travel and leisure into goods is that justified? >> i don't think so. we've seen a lot more movement around geographically and otherwise.

while you see a little domestic softness in air, international airfares are still very strong you see a little adr erosion in a few spots. very narrow. our adr for hotel and vacation rental was basically flat in the second quarter while there is some sense of movement and asia is opening up and more travelers can move there, there's no evidence that the travelers are generally moving away from spending on travel in favor of goods or other items. >> let's talk about cross-border travel we know that's up. we know more americans are going to europe. you talked about rebound in asia that is starting to take place or starting to unfold. are you devoting more time to these four markets how quick wly capitalize on thi trend? >> yeah, we've been definitely spending more time focusing on outside the u.s. as you know, we've been on a transformation journey and focusing on building a better mouse trap to work better for the traveler, better product, better experience, better service. we're rolling that -- u.s. was our biggest market so we started there. we're much more aggressively rolling that out across the world, focusing on getting

people into the app, focusing on getting them into our membership programs and focusing on giving them the best experience so, we're definitely leaned into the rest of the world and more and more is coming back. our b2b business has more exposure to the world and we're seeing great growth there. >> a.i., you rolled out that product a couple months ago. what's the early read and what has customer reception been as we tried how this new cutting edge technology speeds up the booking process and makes it easier to customize trips? >> yeah, i wish we could say we're speeding it up but people are playing with it, learning how to figure it out we're learning how they interact with it and helping the features it's early days. i think some consumers love to engage with it and many skip it entirely there's a lot more to go on large language models and i think it's going to play a bigger role over time but it's not a big driver it's kind of a novelty people

are playing with, learning, we're learning from their interactions and that's allowing the product better and better. we'll see more progression it's early days in terms of bookings or things like that. >> we've been discussing what the u.s. downgrade means for the u.s. from corporate america to lending rates to interest rates. how are you thinking about the impact on travel and business in general? >> yeah, it's a funny thing. i think we've gotten more comfortable that we're looking at a soft landing or maybe the recession we all feared isn't coming at the same time we have the downgrade. i think the consumer if they don't watch this show or shows like it feel relatively good about how things have progressed they're still spending money on travel luxury travel is very strong i don't think unless it bleeds into common daytime television and everybody starts worrying anew, i don't think it will impact behavior that much.

i think the core economic trends are what's impacting it. so far the consumer hasn't been hit that hard. we haven't seen adrs erode and travel demand is high. i don't think we'll see it bleed in i don't understand the downgrade but unless it creates a domino effect, i don't think the consumer will react to it. >> quickly on adr, we have seen rates fall over the last two months, specifically in miami, jersey shore are you expecting prices to continue to fall and by how much >> again, you can find small pockets where some places that was really oversaturated in demand has been super elevated and has backed off a little bit. if you look across the globe, even across big geographies, north america, et cetera, basically adrs are flat. you can find these gyrations from the market here or market there, but by and large, demand is high and adrs are stable.

>> thank you for taking the time, peter kern, ceo of ex expedia. now looking to booking and airbnb tonight, which made about 50% of bookings in the u.s. last year we'll see if that bullness -- >> he was optimistic but less optimistic that investors wanted all about that outlook thanks, seema. amazon is the other big tech name yet to report we'll get those results and how to play the stock after a 50% run this year. we're back in two.

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amazon is the other tech giant set to report after the bell investors focusing on demand and growth for its cloud business, aws. deirdre bosa digs into those numbers in today's "tech check." the single most important thing this quarter may be that read on amazon's cloud business. over the last six quarters growth has slowed significantly. it went from 40% year over year growth at the end of 2021 to just 16% in the first quarter and is expected to come in 10% tonight. that could bring the critical number into the single digits and raise concerns things have changed about the business and it's not just pressure from a backdrop but may be losing ground to competitors.

aws, the cloud business, makes up less than 20% of amazon's total revenue but more than 100% of profit income, like devices that is often a money losing business aws is the backbone of the so-called amazon fly wheel, more additions, more perks to the prime subscription at the center of it all. andy jassy was one of the main architects and pioneered cloud and created the categories that gave amazon a huge lead over everyone else. they are growing at quicker clips and cloud will play a key role in the shift.

investors are anxious tonight to know whether aws growth has bottomed, whether it's settling or if it could have lower. amazon has touted tools and products, but is it going to be enough when microsoft and google have made more splashy announcements. something that may be a good signal was the microsoft numbers. it is critical as a profit engine but especially tonight, this quarter more than ever, that aws number. >> do you think we'll hear a lot of commentary about ai given all of the progress playoffs has made in the space? >> they've been doing that in a different way. google has bard. amazon as more tools behind the scenes in its cloud.

customers can use open or closed source one thing they like to say the chief of aws said to me not long ago this is a longer race, and we're three steps into it. it's still very, very early days >> finally, dee, we did pay some attention to reports of further head count moves over at salesforce, and i wonder if that means there might be more gas in the tank on the operating leverage trade at aws. >> that is a great question. they've made -- amazon has made cuts in different areas. aws has been more shielded than others maybe a chance to pick up because we know they're leaning in when it comes to creating ai tools and products it's a good question that's all in its core business of e-commerce. it spent so much money to essentially double that

logistics capacity to get stuff to consumers faster. investors will want to know that efficiency can continue. >> big numbers tonight we'll see. bill ackman's calls and the dow is trying to claw back into positive territory n in ay. dit tepotswa

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the street is buzzing about ackman again announcing this new short on 30-year treasuries making the case for 3% persistent inflation and yields he says could go as high as 5 1/2. he actually outlines a number of reasons, entitlements, higher defense costs, deglobalization, labor strife, although others say, bill, is there any trade you don't come on and talk about it at the same time? >> he likes to tweet -- sorry, he likes to x about it, formerly known as twitter, his commentary in light of what happened with fitch and the downgrade.

he does agree with fitch at a time we hear buffett and others disagree >> interesting to see the market reaction today and the attempt to rally down negative by only 30 points. obviously a lot could change after the bell when we get the apple, amazon, airbnb. dom chu in for the judge again let's get to post 9. thanks so much, carl and julia. welcome to "the halftime report." i am dom chu in for scott wapner front and center this hour, the $4 trillion test for the market. that is what is on the line as we await key earnings from apple and amazon could those reports turn the tide for that tech trade for the hour at post 9 josh brown, brenda vingiella, jim lebenthal and bill baruch. a check on the markets right now. as we just pointed