leading up to the big iphone release this fall will be interesting to see, and how tim cook talks about the geography i think that's going to be important, as well >> yeah. definitely that will be in focus. also just the commentary we're going to get on a.i. we've had some explosion in productivity, a.i. is going to contribute to that story over the longer term, too that does it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now >> right now on "fast," apple beats the street thanks to its services sales revenue declined for the third straight quarter all the details on that quarter coming up. plus, amazon topping on a big beat sales growing double digits. we'll go inside those numbers straight ahead. later, bond bet. rates on treasuries surge. bill astman believes the 30-year won't stop heading higher. we'll break down his bet. and turbulence in the travel trade. shares of expedia plunging 16%

is this another sign that the post-pandemic travel boom is running out of gas i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money," we're live at the nasdaq ma marketsite we start off with a huge slate of earnings. apple and amazon headlining the afterhours action. full team coverage on all these names. we start off with steve kovach and apple's big quarter. steve? >> yeah, melissa, it is, like you said, the third quarter in a row of falling sales, with revenue still beating estimates, but down 1% year on year so, revenues coming in at $81.8 billion, street was looking for 81 p$.69 billion and the eps was a bigger beat, $1.26 versus $1.19 expected. iphone, slight miss, coming in at $39.67 billion. just a couple hundred mill short of expectations there.

but the story today is going to be services. hitting a new record of 8% year on year. growth accelerating there, booking $21.21 billion in revenue there. and gross margin, i want to point out the expansion there, also beating expectations, 44.5% gross margin, and it's up from 43% a year ago quarter, so, services really helping out there. and i got to speak to tim cook about these results about an hour or so ago, and talking about what really drove those services results we're seeing here and basically, reversing some of the trends we've seen. here's what we told me advertising has definitely accelerated from before, and the app store has axel rated from before a reverse of the trend we've seen in the last couple quarter else and i picked his brain a little bit about a.i. and how that technology will play in at apple. here's what he told me, quote, we've been doing research on a.i. and machine learning,

including generative a.i. for years, adding later that, quote, and we're going to continue investing and innovating and rolling these things into products that enrich people's lives, end quote also telling me, you know, products like the vision pro, just wouldn't be able to exist without the a.i. and machine learning technology that apple has developed. and then i also had to ask him about the fitch downgrade, of course, we heard from a couple other executives, like jamie dimon, warren buffett breushing off concerns, and tim cook saying it's not something he's deeply concerned about melissa? >> steve, thank you. steve kovach let's trade this you know, it is important to keep in mind, apple in the afterhours session is about $10 away from a record high. so, we are very so close -- >> right >> to that high. >> but we have the call. wait for the call. they can say a lot of other things i think that -- it was a very good quarter, a lot to like. tiny miss in iphone.

services great, as steve said. and obviously the margin there is, i don't know, triple, or, whatever, very much adds to the growth margin average. and greater china was actually, i think, a little bit stronger, i think. >> it was. it was up 6.7% and consensus, nearly 2 billion greater than what consensus was sorry to -- >> right so put all that together, though, and at this price, you had to have a very good quarter, so, is it good enough? i don't know it's okay, themarket is tellin you, well, we don't know what yet to make of it. it wasn't a giant beat, but you know, let's see what they have to say, and let's see how they, you know, i don't know that they'll give great forward guidance that we can really count on, but i want to hear the tone i want to hear how they feel about it >> my point about the record high, you would think that maybe apple would see a bigger selloff, given -- >> given that it was already -- >> it wasn't a perfect quarter

>> oh, okay. >> and we are so close still to record highs >> i think that's a fair point the fact now that services are 25% of overall revenue is great. that's the highest number i think we've seen it would be greater if it was doing it on revenues that were increasing, but revenues -- which is fine, i'm not going to -- i don't want to equivocate here, but in terms of valuation, it's an expensive stock, given the metrics that we're seeing. again, single-digit eps growth, single-digit earnings growth, again, some -- a stock that's probably trading close to 30 times next year's numbers. so, the question is, is it in the stock now? i thought that was the case awhile ago, and here we are. i think a logical place for the stock to trade down to, to sort of amplify what you're saying, is sort of that prior all-time high of, like, 176 or 177 or so. which isn't crazy. and in the context of what we've seen historically with apple, it's not out of the realm of possibility. >> yeah. courtney >> yeah, i think realistically,

and we've all echoed this, apple is pretty expensive. these valuations, realistically, multiples have to come down or earnings have to come up stock probably isn't moving a lot right now, they get a lot of their business from slowing markets. pc demand and phone demand has been coming down we saw that with qualcomm. they were having some negative news there, i think people were expecting that with apple. but seeing how much their services is making up for that, i think that's really what people are liking to see here, and we're going to have to see how much that and china is the big story for them the fact they had beats there, i think is why people are not as negative on the right now. >> interesting, i mean, we've had a lot of time to digest that taiwan semi guide, and what we saw out of qualcomm. they missed on iphone, it wasn't a great quarter, but they know in september, they're going to introduce the iphone 15, so, it's the sort of things they're not going to hit the sell button on that miss

i agree on china if you are trying to figure out what the bug a boos would be, that would clearly be one of them i'm sure the dollar weakness has been helpful to them we know how much sales they get outside the u.s., but i'm kind of with guy on this one, i just don't know why you would buy this stick at 32 times here, given the sort of growth rates we have. obviously, that increasing -- and gene is going to talk about this, i've heard him talk about this, he's been totally right on this if they can continue to grow this ios-installed base and the services become to be a part of the greater part of the revenue, like, that's the story, from here on out. and anything else they introduce, a new product that takes off the way airpods did, it's just gragravy. and the advertising stuff, i hope jgene talks about that, because that's been a really good lever for amazon. their retail business is not particularly great, but look at the companies that were not relying on advertising, netflix is another one, it's a good business, if you have the eyeballs and the credit card of

the people there and, so, to me, it's fine. i have a small position in apple, carter showed us a chart -- it's finally a perfect 45 degree angle, okay? a perfect 45 -- it just broke it the other day. i don't think this is a good enough quarter to keep the stock moving to highs. >> karen, what do you want to hear from them in terms of the tone or specific areas, i mean, i would like to hear a little bit more about china -- >> right >> especially when there's concerns about sinnives and promotional activities in china to get the sales up. >> i want to hear that and how much -- how are they -- are they -- how much of the product is being manufactured else where, is that the plan it has to be expensive in the short-term to do and then the a.i. is how much they're going to spend on it and how they think they can generate revenue. not quite as clear to me, but they will find a way, i think. >> earlier this week, terry, the founder of foxcon, said if war broke out between china and taiwan, it would be catastrophic

for u.s. stocks. foxcon is a huge supplier of apple. what are your thoughts on that that would be my question. see what i did there i actually sounded like i'm halfway intelligent. that would be my question. and it's legit if you go back to listen what he said, he is clearly concerned. kyle bass talks about it all the time there's been this escalation the united states just gave $345 million worth of military aid to taiwan this isn't getting better, it's getting worse. we're not talking about it, and i don't hope this to happen, but clearly something is going on. >> the hope is, they transition to india before this sort of -- >> yeah, it takes time >> or, if it happens, it happens. but that is a risk clearly been a risk. >> and it's funny you bring up india, because that is one of their big markets right now, where they are starting to get more into, and that's something that could be is a larger long-term catalyst for them, they can get more into the iphone space in india, which is a much younger population and a very growing population right now. that could be a catalyst for them, too. i think it's early, but it will

be interesting >> apple stock down 1.4% ahead of the call. let's meantime get to the other big tech earnings report, amazon popping in the afterhours on a top and bolt tom line beat the tech company saying growth will axel rate in the current quarter. deidrdre bosa has more >> stabilization in aws, that is sending shares soaring just got off the phone with the cfo who said they are seeing stabilization at the current 12% growth rate in aws, and that is down from more than 30% a few quarters ago, and at lower margins, but perhaps some relief or hosopt himism that will it n further. a also, underpinning the gains in the afterhours is guidance prime day, remember, it falls in the current quarter, q-3, and the company is expecting $138

billion to $140 billion in sales. that's better than expected. operating income between $5.5 billion and 8 $8.5 billion they were delivering net losses just last year the company will point to regionalization of the main driver of that they expect to double their logistic networks over the pandemic they make it more efficient, more profitable, leading to faster delivery times. the cfo is pleased with the progress, but he sees more opportunity to drive more cost efficiency back over to you, mel. >> d-bo, thank you you said that carter made a bold call yesterday >> yeah. he was selling apple and buying amazon he's good, that guy. >> the best. >> pantheon, party non >> both of them. >> we're talking about the quarter, this and that, and he refers them to the fundamentals, he doesn't care about that this is one, he said

consolidating. know that sentiment wasn't particularly great relative to some of the other cloud players, after we saw what google cloud and microsoft have been able to do that's part of the story seeing stabilization, telling a story about how their customers are going to be using these tools, and more compute, that sort of thing -- i totally get it i'm not chasing it here. i don't think you have to chase any of these stocks here you had all the time in the world, if you wanted to buy amazon over the last six months or so and i don't think there's this much a.i. pixie dust in there. you know, these guys have been investing billions of dollars in machine learning for over a decade, i mean, they're going to be just fine as it relates to a.i. over the next ten years >> what we learned about amazon, they can turn the dial when they want to. 5.7% operating margins were crazy, compared to street was at 3.6, and year over year, it's up 2.7% the market likes that. but if our crack staff in ec, engelwood cliffs, can go back to

august of last year, you will notice that this 140 level-ish is where he stowe stopped at lat year if you listened to carter? a loej call place to take money off the table. >> they could benefit off a.i., but they also have to spend. >> they do, right, so -- i think, though, the street will have a lot of patience for the spend, if they can start to show -- they don't have to show how big, if they can start to show, and maybe this is starting to show a little bit, right? remember, there was that interview with andy jassy where they were saying, you seem late toll the party he said, you know what we're in inning two, very early, so -- i'm going to give them the benefit of the doubt it's not cheap i'm long, i'm staying long even -- i don't love going against carter, but it's just funny to me, the $53 billion part of the business is, you know, a nice little part of the story, it was better, but -- not so relevant, which is kind of amazing to how extraordinary it

is >> you are with carter >> long amazon >> long amazon >> court, what did you make of the quarter? >> yeah, this is very impressive, after microsoft warned of a slowdown in the computing business it's very impressive i agree with dan, i wouldn't be chasing these things i think this is fantastic, trading up for very good reason, because it is beating expectations, but it is very expensive. the good news is, it is a very high portion of the s&p 500, so, when apple and amazon do well, you are going to see the overall markets do well. i wouldn't be chasing it here. >> for more, let's bring in "fast money" gene munster from deepwater asset management gene, we have so much to deal with tonight let's go with amazon here. is it worth this 8% pop? >> it is and ultimately, d-bo framed it in perfectly that aws stability commentary was powerful that led investors to look for accelerating aws growth in the back half of the year.

and then separately, what we saw in the profitability, that shift to earnings, i think that's an important, powerful segment that has not been part of amazon's story. if we look back over the last severn years, the average margin on their retail business is 2.6% if they can add some efficiency to that, this can be a 5% business this is a segment that -- the retail opportunities, i think that's a big piece, a big opportunity, relative to where amazon is today. i would say this, mel, is that amazon had a better quarter than apple. pretty clear to me apple is in line but if you look at apple versus amazon, and which of those two companies to own for the next five years, i would take apple over amazon in a heartbeat >> a would you rather by gene -- >> he's allowed to do that? >> he just did why? amazon is lump yerp ier?

apple sort of been steady eddy >> you said the -- perfect worlds there lumpy is not good for investor confidence steady is. and apple hit it right at the top. dan mentioned, i was going to say something about this, you read my mind, is that the key takeaway from apple's quarter isn't the results, it's the active install base grew they said that in the headline they know how important this is. that means that the business, the fly wheel is working and that means that the business has continued to be steady and that is opportunity for a multiple expansion i know that sounds hard to believe. but the second piece, and your panel has been orbiting this topic, but i'm going to put a finer point on it, melissa, the india opportunity. china, in 2010, was a $3 billion business in 2016, it was a $59 billion business it grew basically $55 billion over six years now, 19% of total sales. india, today, is about a $12

billion business it's 3% of revenue if it gets to the same size as china over the next six, seven years, that alone, india alone, can add 3% annual revenue growth to apple's story for the next seven years. this company doesn't need to grow at 15% for investors to be happy. if they can nail between 5% and 7%, i think the stock continues to move higher and they can do a lot of that on the backbone of india. >> gene, it's karen, thank you for being on tonight so, you said apple multiple actually could be higher, even though that maybe sounds kind of surprising where should the multiple be pretty high? >> it's high i'll let kind of the broader investors put that together. i would just say this -- there's no other company that has the stability that apple has and the optionality around revenue gro growth i put this in proctor gamble, coca-cola, clorox, those kind of steadystaples. we haven't even talked about

vision pro don't get me started, i've used the device, i think this is something that's going to be added in, it's going to be a few years from now, not to mention, if they do something in automotive and those other consumer staple companies, they aren't even close to that conversation, so -- i'm looking at this over the next three to five years, and thinking about where the conversation's going to go, and i think when you put thatwarranr multiple >> gene, let's talk about amazon you think about aws, accounting for 70% of their, you know, of -- basically their operating profit, okay and we know we saw the retail side, guy mentioned the operating margin better on the retail what excites you more about the story? the operating margins better on the retail front or a stabilization in the aws, and they see a really nice growth trajectory, as there's a lot of excitement in and around demand for their compute as it relates to a.i., or are they both really good >> i'm mrm exciore excited abou

retail i understand that's a light year away from what most investors are talking about today. retail, 75% of their business. i talked about the margin profite over the last five years, 2.5%. if they can sustain 5% plus with some of these efficiencies they're starting to drive in their distribution, you can kind of circle back to the retail business being the exciting part of the story and i buried the headline. retail units grew 9% year over year it was 8% year over year in the previous quarter and that's with all the proper comps, with prime day, and those prime day all hits in the september quarter. so, ultimately, i think the retail business is -- is the crown jewel of amazon, and hasn't had the flash that aws has, but ultimately, that's what's going to drive shares higher in the long-term. i'm still positive on amazon, i would take apple ahead of amazon, though >> gene, thank you catch up with you a little bit later on in the show after you jump on the calls. gene munster would you agree with gene?

>> yeah, that time frame -- >> yeah. >> absolutely. >> shorter time frame? >> our show is a shorter time frame. and what we mentioned, that prior high in apple, i think, was 178ish from december of 2021 i don't think it's unreasonable to think the stock can go back there. we have seen selloffs larger than in terms of magnitude the quarter is fine. it's a great -- all those things are great. it's about trading the stock in the here and now, and i think it goes to 176 before it goes back to whatever that prior high was, 198 or so? >> all right, coming up, there's still a lot more earnings action coming your way. block, coinbase, air b and b shares of expea didropping, as well we'll break that down when "fast money" returns

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welcome back to "fast money. a beat for block, but shares are falling into the red cr shares of coin boyce volatile the company beat on the top and bottom line. kate rooney is here with the results. >> let's start with block. that company upping its full-year forecast thanks to recent cost cutting.

the stock lower, which appears to be about slower growth in its july update. payment volume was also a slight miss jack dorsey's payment company expected to see positive adjusted operating income. had previously forecasted a loss there and upping its first-year adjusted guidance. that july update, guys, it's looking for 21% gross profit growth a report of that, which was down from the second quarter. gross profit for cash app was up 37% in the quarter now has 54 million mtus. that was up 15% year over year their ceo pointing to some of the growth and saying that was thanks to some of the strength on their banking side. and those offerings, as well as cost-cutting and efficiency there. onto coin base a narrower than expected loss for the second quarter revenue coming in above expectations stock connelling o ingcoming of pop. trading was muted.

down 48% in the quarter. monthly transacting users fell 19%. consumer trading, or retail trading volume, that was down 70%, while institutional volume was down, as well. the cfo telling me, we've navigated down markets before, she said, this is just par for the course she says they can handle the volatility regulatory uncertainty, of course, still a big overhang for this name. coin base plans to file a motion to dismiss the s.e.c.'s case against it tomorrow. back to you. >> and kate, just remind us, the s.e.c. case is -- is basically to delist a bunch of coins from its platform >> yeah, it's about operating an unregistered securities exchange and it has to do with these tokens that coin base offers to trade as being securities, where as coin base has argued, no, they're not, and that's really the crux of the argument there

s.e.c. has said essentially everything other than bitcoin is a security you didn't register and coin base said, well, you saw our f-1 at the time, you said everything was okay so, it's become more symbolic for the entire industry. so, it seems like they there fighting on behalf of the entire crypto industry, as well as for themselves there, but they're taking another shot at the s.e.c. and looking for the judge in this case to dismiss that, and we'll see what happens tomorrow >> yep kate, thank you. kate rooney. 21% shares are short >> short, yeah >> well, so, the stock ran 150% from the day that the s.e.c. filed that suit, okay, in may, until just recent highs and it's come off into that, which is truly astounding, when you think about that the stock's up today because of that loss that is less than expected this company is not supposed to turn a profit until 2027 on a gap basis, until 2028. in the market we've just lived in, and we're going to talk about block in a second and

paypal was a bit of a disaster, like, the fin tech were the darlings in 2020, all the dynamics about the pull forward during the pandemic, but then the deceleration in the year or so prior the lack of profitability there, to me, i'm shocked that the stock is up after the close here >> forecasts are made on the assumption they will have all those tokens on their platform still. and imagine if they are left with nothing but bitcoin i mean, that really, you know, i would think takes away a big pillar of their model. >> yeah, i agree with dan. i can't really even get close to where that is. >> yeah. >> i wonder, just really quickly, they talked about losing customers bitcoin's had a good quarter you look at it -- >> right >> as the luster kind of lost for the asset a little bit, you know, so, i don't know. coming up, the earninging just won't stop. draft kings and airbnb still ahead. but first, is there

turbulence coming for the travel trade? expedia's big drop, and what it could mean for the entire space in two you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. back right after this.

live from the nasdaq market site

just talking about the alman brothers >> welcome back to "fast money." trouble in the travel trade. shares of expedia dropped 16%. that was its worst one-day loss since before the pandemic. the company beating on profits but falling short of expectations in revenue and gross bookings the ceo saying domestic air travel softened, but that international air fares remain strong so, what does this say about

demand for travel? we knew that the airlines in general are doing okay >> it flies in the face -- we had -- >> oh, look at that. >> flies -- >> i tried to sneak that in there. tried to land that he talked about airports being more crowded than they were in 2019 40 million, i think, people we're talking about. so, that flies in the face, again, of what they're saying here so, the question is, how do you trade expedia, what does it mean for the airlines delta has that huge move we've heard from some airlines they haven't traded well if tim were here, we'd say the airlines are the best trades out there. and the case of delta, stock heads back to 41, you buy it again and look for that subsequent move higher >> are you in the travel trade at all, court? >> yeah. i think travel has actually looked very enticing here, which is why it's surprising how muc expedia missed this expectation. people were expecting over 10%

expectations, and they -- they're saying high single digits now that's what people are not excited about. it is contrasting what the airlines are saying. i would focus on the airlines more >> the airline differential is international travel, high margin travel, or business travel, and if you look at something like love, that was done today, that might be the travel that's exactly what's getting hit. >> right >> love and jetblue had dismal quarters >> yeah. >> i'm going to say it, i think you just buy expedia it's trading at nine times next year's earnings, and this is going to do, if you go back to 2019, prepandemic, they earned $6.15. this year, they are expecting to own 9$9.13. they are getting above those numbers, so, they are more profitable on the same amount. trading at nine times next year's expected earnings which are going to grow double-different this is why, i'm like, confounded in this market. the other day, i said, paypal, you want to buy this thing, do it with calls. define my risk, that sort of

thing. i'm attracted to the things that trade like crap, because they trade at good value, and i can see a scenario where this stock could come back and be a real force. and if you look -- i don't get it to me, it looks like a buy here. >> i loftve optimistic dan. >> i'm optimistic, but -- >> did you change at all on paypal based on the quarter? >> no. i mean -- you know, just buy it again. it's fine. it will fill in the gap. listen, all these stocks that are good names with good -- they fill in their gaps, people that's why you don't always have to be set up in front of the earnings, if you are trading that sort of thing we do it with snap all the time. it will fill in the gap. pinterest, always fills in the gap. coming up, bonds shorting bonds no, not 007, but a billionaire investor making a big bet against long-term treasuries does he have the golden eye for the move and we'll talk to the chart master and where he sees rates h heading, when "fast money" returns.

welcome back to "fast money. markets down again today as investors grapple with rising bond yields. the dow dropping 66 points the s&p nasdaq posting their third straight day of losses and let's get another look at amazon and apple

amazon's call is just getting under way. a nice pop there up 7.6%. apple, though, widening its losses, down by 2.3% the cfo seeing a drop in ipad and mac revenues. let's look at bonds. rates hitting their highest yields since last november these are moves -- i know you point this out, guy, that you don't normally see in the bond market >> no. and you don't want to see them and the resteepening of the yield curve, historically, that's when you have to start to worry, when it starts to resteepen. that's when risk as sets start to get whacked but the fact that ten-year yields have gone from 3.4% to 4.2%ish today, approaching levels we saw in the fall of last year that's no good because i'm telling you, rates aren't going higher because the economy is magically getting better they're going higher, because there is a concern that inflation is still a problem

so, i think the bond market is starting to sort of believe the fed. the question is, will the stock market start to pick up on it? the last couple days, it has >> for more, let's bring in rick santelli what is going on here, the flight in yields >> well, i think guy hit most of the highlights we're reversing one of the most historic yield curve trades of all time over four decades of inversion we are minus 107, maybe seven sessions ago, in twos versus tens today briefly, it dabbled under minus 70, which means it moved in six sessions. and all of that has been long dated for the reasons that guy pointed out. andsteepening was going to occur, but we thought it was because of short d rates dropping let's go to the charts real quickly. there's a couple things here

first of all, the fall high for ten-year note yield is october 24th for 30-year bonds, it's 4.38%, same date, the pattern is the same let's look at the wave pattern we like impulses to the upside that in many ways means this is very significant, could turn into a double top. this stretched out a bit too long and had a breakout, but still, this is the level on a closing basis. here's the level on 30-year bond yields, and you need to really pay attention here, because people and great investors, will they be credit we'll have to see. these markets like double tops but he is jumping on something, and there's so many other traders that are then being the cat list for unwinding more of that yield curve spread and it keeps ping-ponging back and forth. >> rick, it's karen. thank you for being on how much of this move is because of the treasury's very large

funding needs, and then also, you know, they're going to have to be issuing more longer term bonds? >> oh, absolutely. the whole t-bill, the whole refunding, the whole restocking of treasury, plays into this absolutely but what plays into it even more is the notion that inflation pre-covid most likely, we could have gotten back there but we did many things during and right after covid, whether it was spending more money or all these rules about evs, the transition, all of those things are going to keep inflation potentially higher and the market has to grapple with that. and that's why i think the short end isn't moving and the long end is >> rick, always good to see you. thank you for joining us tonight. rick santelli. what do you think of the trade he's betting on the 30-year yield to 5.5, so -- >> can we just say something >> the tlc that rick put into that chart, the hand-made chart,

like -- literally. amazing. >> it looked really good looked like it was computer generated. >> good on you you can't comment on the trade i feel like it's really interesting he said he's doing it through options he likes the leverage. and when you think about the way in which to do that, they are really cheap relative to other risk assets when you are looking at something on treasury yields. i suspect this is not a new thing. i suspect he's been on this trade and we know that when he comes on and he tweets stuff it's not a new thing and could be closer to the end than the beginning the last thing, you talk about this all the time with credit, you remember jamie dimon investor day in late may, he said, be prepared for rates that are going much higher? seems like the smart money, talking to jamie, your final trade the other day was to sell the tlt, did he get you on the blower and tell you the -- >> no. but i would have taken the call. >> of course but it was interesting this comment, this was from that meeting, and this goes to credit he goes, i think everyone should be prepared for rates going much

higher but he had this comment about the easiest way, okay, for a bank not to lose more money, to not make the next loan i thought that was interesting talking about tighter credit and what happens in this environment, right if we see the credit has been tightening >> yeah. the latest loan officer survey shows that credit continues to tighten. let's go to carter braxton worth of worth charting to see what he sees in his own fancy charts carter >> yeah, well, important point santelli made is of course the sequencing and the patterns are all the time, but let's look at them quickly and starting with long-term, the 30-year, and then moving we have this well-defined uptrend, and the question is, they all have that top, the 21st of october, almost ten months ago, and do we or don't with exceed those highs one, if we do, do we exceed them in a meaningful way, or is it a head fake only then to fall back again. i'm in the latter camp not necessarily get there, but if we do, you don't get much higher, so, 30-year, let's look

at ten look at five you can just roll through the charts it's all the same setup. obviously, the two-year is closest to its former high, and that is in many ways the one that is, of course, acted on, so to speak but what's important to say is this fed funds rate exactly a year ago was 2.5% and wall street was looking for 4.6% from 100 economists. we're now at 5.5 just as dippicly, all of us can be behind the facts, we're now ahead of the facts so, here's the two and ten-year spread, you have a perfect double bottom. i mean, literally within one basis point, which is incredible and we're almost up against that downtrend line my thinking here, this does not go much higher >> oh, all right and carter, we've been giving you props all show long about your call to be long amazon and out of apple into earnings what's the update here at this point? >> yeah, well, how about, here's an update. whew

>> just stick with it. >> yeah. stick with it. >> all right, carter, thank you. carter braxton worth of worth charting he's so eloquent >> he is >> relaxed, always >> yeah. >> so, i like what carter's saying he actually did a trade similar that fits with what he's saying. the tlt has moved so much, i said, all right, the risk/reward is trading now i'm short tlt, going to buy upside calls, which turns -- if you watch "options action", you know that turns the trade into long a put, not short tlt. coming up, activist investor bill astman making a move in the options action plus, gene munster will join us after this quick break to d pl us the rundown on amazon anape. more "fast money" in two

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welcome back gene munster still with us he's been listening into apple and amazon's earnings call, which is -- that shows you how much talent gene's got what are the highlights here >> melissa, from apple's call, they guided revenue down 3% year over year for the september quarter. that includes the impact of fx the street was looking for plus one. if you exclude the -- excuse me, excluding the impact of fx,

including it, it's going to be down one, so, that's the point where analysts are going to change from plus one to down one, but the reason the stock is fading is because it's really down three this is getting pretty hyper focused, but that's why the stock has faded. the positive side, gross margin is going to be flat quarter on quarter, because typically from the june to september quarter, it declines by a percent, and i just mentioned that revenue is going to be a little lighter it speaks to the incredible cost control. and related to amazon, this is all about improving and getting the street more optimistic about where aws is, it's up fra fractionally kind of from where it was in the aftermarket. that trend, that confidence that investors have that this business has stabilized, i think is reflected in what's going on in the stock in the aftermarket. >> any commentary, gene, about what they're expecting with the 15 >> no, you know, they don't even say that there's a new product coming, and so, there's -- no expectations around that

i would just point out that t the -- kind of the theme, the mood of the call is more of this, like, trying to dissect into what's going on in the revenue growth, it has been much less about what's going on in the bigger picture, which i think speaks to, again, why the stock has kind of faded. a.i. has not come up yet they did say, cook did say that they've had tremendous growth in the emerging markets, which include india, china went from down 3% in the march quarter to up 8% in the june quarter, so, saw a nice bounce-back so, i think the theme that india can improve revenue growth for the next few years, at least that data point is intact regularive to the june quarter >> yeen, tgene munster, thank y. so, the revenue numbers have to come down for the current quarter. theoretically, price targets could -- >> they could. one of the interesting things,

the margin is going to hang in products are going to be down, services not so, that's going to keep the growth margin there. that's the direction you want. you just want them both growing. coming up, we've got the afterhours action in draft kings. the stock is surging on its results. is have the details right after th more "fast money" in two ♪ "don't cha" written by callaway/ray, re-recorded by massivemusic ♪ (camera shutter) ♪ don't cha wish your phone was fun like this? ♪ don't cha wish your phone was fun like this? ♪ don't cha wish your phone was fun like this? ♪ don't cha wish your phone looked more like this? ( ♪♪ ) don't cha wish your phone could flex like this? ( ♪♪ ) don't cha wish your phone could fit in here? don't cha? ( ♪♪ ) get a free storage upgrade when you pre-order at at&t.

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on draft kings. shares popping the sports betting company

raising guidance contessa brewer has the details. >> draft kings says it is benefits from better efficiency. it is spending less on promotion. it is seeing better customer engagement monthly unique players up more than 40% year over year. revenue up 88% over last year. a big beat in adjusted ebitda. that's the important earnings metric in gaming $78 million, more than what the street was expecting players are spending more on average, too and that increase spend per user is reflected in the company's earnings, which exceeded guidance and for which the draft kings team has raised the mid-point for the fissioncal yer draft kings is proclaiming itself the i-gaming leader yesterday, we heard from mgm, insisting that bet mgm is the market share leader. it depends in i-gaming how you slice and dice it. maybe they should just fan duel it out it remains that online casino gambling is offered in half a

dozen states, but hugely lucrative. there's sharp elbows out shares up 160% this year this kind of reports puts an exclamation point on all the optimism investors have had for draft kings, melissa >> you got groans around the desk here. >> i liked it. mom joke >> contessa, thank you >> sure. >> guy, your take? >> she can get away with it. she has an amazing job when you have letters and you put them together -- >> worlds >> acronym >> for draft kings, they have something called mups. monthly unique players the revenue per mup was $137 the street was at $121 that's a good sign people are betting more. that works for draft kings >> better class of mup >> that's the first time we've used that on "fast money." the mup. >> i've never heard of that, as

opposed to muppet. let's turn back to today's bond breakdown on the back of fish's u.s. credit down grade. the tlt dropping more than 2% and options traders are among the most bearish they have been in years on bonds. so, mike, what are you seeing here >> yeah, well, one of the things we're seeing is a lot of volume. tlt has traded more than double its average daily volume now for three days in a row, but one of the other things i would point out, we've seen a big increase in options premium so, that's probably not that surprising with the volatility, we would see a big increase in the implied volatility right now, there are about 15% more expensive to buy a one-month put option than a 5% out of the money call option one of the bigger trades we saw today was the purchase of 2,400 of the october 94 puts buyers spending $2.78 or just under $670,000 in premium betting that the volatility to the downside could continue.

>> karen >> yes i like that call, that pricing better, right, to create the put. yeah so, i mean, if you look at the move, this -- you know, these -- these kind of etfs don't move. a 3% move is very big. and we've had two or three of them in the last few days. >> mike, thank you mike khouw for more options action, tune into the show tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.

final trade time courtney >> watchi i ing energy prices. i would take mltx here >> karen >> i bought tosome tlt calls, because i think the run is a little too hot >> dan >> i actually think -- i bought tlt calls yesterday, september expiration but i'm doing it a little differently, because i'm losing money, trying to get it back >> trying to >> expedia two-day rule, three-day -- >> three-day t today is day one >> dan >> what do they call that thing,

the fifth wall, the third wall, something like that, stephanie back in ec doing an amazing job with the brothers alman. psx in the energy space like courtney said. >> nice. all right, thank you for watching "fast money." "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain but to educate and teach you so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer the consumer's going on a cruise norwegian, royal caribbean, carnival no she's actually flyinng