good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with steve l liesman. >> good morning. >> steve and i have been together for years >> mid '90s. you were 12, i think, at the time >> you were 14 >> i was older >> here we are we get to do the show together andrew will join us later. joe is off today a perfect day for steve here jobs friday coming up. ahead of the number, look at what is happening with the equities this hour dow futures indicated up 33 points s&p futures are up 12. the nasdaq is indicated up by 76 if you look at what is happening with the treasury market, this is where things get interesting.

the 10-year treasury is yielyieldin 4.19%. i believe these are sitting at high levels for yields for the year >> i had a computer problem before we started. of course. >> that's why i was asking you i was deferring. >> let's look. >> it is clear it is high yields for the year if you look at that year to date that yield up 8% all of this is happening as we got stronger than anticipated adp numbers this week and the downgrade from fitch >> can i point out, becky, look at when this is higher than the last time which is back in march when we had the problem with the regional banks >> oh, that's very interesting >> too many alarm bells. we are back to the pressure on the banks. now, they had a lot of time to get their act together they had the fed program to take

their tired, poor, hungry and underfunded bonds to the fed and get 100% financing off that. it is an area where there was pressure on the bacnks. we have to watch the regional banks. i haven't looked in a day or so. they were doing quite well and i don't know if this is all created to see if the regional banks are quite the player they are coming up right now unchanged this morning xre is what we want to look at there. it's so good in the back i really enjoy testing them. pushing buttons all over the place. >> it is jobs friday there's a lot we will watch through the course of the show >> all kinds of stuff circulating around i don't know if you noticed this this, but in the lead up, the data is telling me this.

this is really good in the upside or downside surprise. i didn't do it this week. >> why >> i couldn't get the story. i don't know what it was it was all over the place. i think -- we are just learning in the post-pandemic period to deal in a different way to gauge and monitor the economy. when you get into the month of july with tremendous seasonal adjustments, i'm not sure the data is handling it all that well we will have to watch it over time and get a feel for how does it deal with the economy will add back 1 million jobs because of the layoffs in the educational sector there is another really weird factor going on which i'm picking up in the commentary out there which is the heatwave. over the course of the 20 years you have known me, i have reported on the job market with hurricanes and snowstorms. never a heatwave

>> what does it do >> the idea that people can't work or aren't working or outdoor jobs that would otherwise be done and can't be done there wasn't hiring. it is hard to know how wide spread this is i know the heatwave was a big chunk of the southwest and midwest and later in the month it is something which is hard to know we worked really hard to gauge the impact i'm using high frequency and local data to understand when that storm that stayed over houston for three days we are able to look at credit card data by zip codes the fed is doing this. the fed -- >> the fed is using this >> the fed is using credit card high frequency data. it wants to know if the falloff in retail sales broader or related to the storm how far outd does it generator

last the thing i come on and say there is a hurricane, which is terrible, but we will see decline in spending now and see a bounce back on the other side of the home depot and lowe's with the rebuilding. it evens out. >> i don't know if you get the same with the heatwave what do the forecasters say? >> 200 am i supposed to read that it is jobs friday. forecasters looking for 200,000 non-farm payroll jobs. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.6%. folks, if you get confused, watch the unemployment rate. all of the other data around and the unemployment rate is what you need to know >> hourly wages is important. >> participation rate. all of that is important with all of the stuff flying around and if you want to know what is happening in the jobs

market, paeople say focus on that. and blackstone's steve schwarzman is weighing in on the fitch downgrade. he shared his thoughts in the "squawk box" exclusive >> nobody expected it. that's the first secondly, the numbers justify it regre regretably we had an explosion of debt since the financial crisis and we don't have a lot of discipline going forward we're running huge deficits now. on the numbers, you can understand why they did it on the other hand, as jamie said -- because jamie is always opini opinionated. the u.s. is the u.s. we are the reserve currency.

we do defend a large part of the world. including people who have aaa. whether there's a crisis in the world, they buy our securities that doesn't last forever if you didn't keep some discipline. >> again, that is adding to the comments we heard this week from a lot of folks we will show you the full interview at 7:30 a.m. eastern time in the meantime, what we heard from jamie dimon, which is what steve was referencing there is the idea it doesn't change the opinion and what they think of u.s. treasuries. warren buffett says he buys $10 billion in short-term t-bills every week yesterday, we told you about bill ackman's call on shorting 30-year there's reasury bonds. he does use that strategy from

warren buffett yesterday afternoon, elon musk signed on to the strategy. he tweeted, short-term t-bills are a no-brainer this is ackman saying it doesn't matter if you buy short-term if you want to say you are confident, long-term treasury. >> i have a lot of respect for steve. i don't think the numbers justify the downgrade. if you think of the cr creditworthiness of the united states and how much wealth relative to debt very high. we have the ability to levy taxes to pay for it if we need i believe the last debt ceiling debate showed the willingness of the body politics to step up and pay the debt the politics are messy i think maybe there is justification to the downgrade, it comes from that let's throw out a contrarian

idea >> can i add on to that? i talked to buffett last night about these things he echoed what you said on the levels of the responsibility of fitch to tell you whether your debt is going to be paid back or not. not to the tell you whether, you know, if you should get more on this not like an equity analyst saying this is a better purchase to put money elsewhere the responsibility of fitch is to say are you going to get paid back if you look at it, yes, the united states will payback because they only have debt issued in u.s. dollars they can always print more there is the ability and willingness to pay back if you listen to schwarzman's point, we are growing to a level by 2029, the cbo is saying you at a higher level than world war

t ii 60% of gdp down from 2007 to now 114. i do see your point. are you going to get paid back >> historically, tyrants default on their debt. democracies do not default on their debt because the people voting are the people who hold the debt. >> you default on your debt if you issued debts in a foreign currency that you don't control. if you are argentina and issuing debt in dollars instead of pesos, you will have a problem >> you pointed out japan seems to run its economy with 200% of gdp? i'll tell you during the time the british pound with the reserve currency in the 18th century and 17th century, britain's debt-to-gdp was 100% i don't know if that is good the idea of the reserve

currency it doesn't mean we should not be more responsible. >> manchin wants that call >> we have to go the more interesting question is whether these guys are wrong you look at the 10-year at 4.17%. do you or do you not believe the fed can get inflation down to 2% if that is true -- >> and ackman says he doesn't. >> if the fed hits 2% and you give 2.17% real on your money, that's not a bad buy it is an interesting question. >> the reason packman made the bet is he doesn't believe they will get it down it does make for a very interesting conversation >> good conversation. when we come back, we dig into the tech movers amazon shares are up apple shares are down. we will dig into the reports

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the company beat the expectations the services unit grew 81%%. overall sales were down 1% apple's cfo said the company expects decline of sales in the current quarter. joining us is the bank of america global research of i.t services is looking great. the big question has to be what happens with hardware? >> good morning, becky thanks for having me here. absolutely we have seen a transition in services which declined for three or four quarters in a row starting to reaccelerated back products are weak. products are weak for a macroeconomics reasons we heard from the ceo yesterday that the u.s. smartphone market is remaining weak. we see china struggle a lot. we see the overhang from the

excess shipments we saw from ipads and macduri during the pandemic it will take time to revert back to growth. although, for next quarter, the iphones are expected to accelerate a little bit. we take that as a point or two of growth. ipads and mac will still be down it will take time for us to work ourselves out of the soft spot in the demand particularly on the hardware side. >> you have a neutral rating on the stock. the price target is 210 which is above where it is now at 187 >> the way we think about it is the price target when we think about what determines that, dit is the pace of estimate revision what we have seen so far has been an interesting year for apple. from the start of the year or a

year ago, people were forecasting $7 of earnings for fiscal 2024. that has come down to $6.50. in the meantime, the stock has moved from a 150 level to 190 or 195. there has been the disconnect which is driven by multiple expansion. that is happening for a number of reasons including strong cash flows they demon demonstrated knowing the fact that the growth is not as volatile as a lot of other companies even in the face of the downturn. this is unprecedented for the market for many years. >> when you look at china, you said there was weakness there, but it looked like chinese consumers were willing to pay more for their phones. that's a different scenario. you expect that to continue? >> becky, china is very interesting in the smartphone market there is low loyalty and high

churn. that comes because the thing that keeps you with apple, at least in the u.s., and my kids with personal experience you use imessage and photos. you want to be in. when you think about that as the lock-in factor, it is not in china. everyone is on wechat. there is the tendency to switch phones on a regular basis. however, what we have seen lately is very good sales with the apple watch in china and no other competing product out there. the lock-in scenario is coming from the ecosystem in china which means you are getting a little more of that tendency to stick with apple once you are apple. that is something that is new in china. >> i have a basic question is growth or domestic smartphone market shrinking is apple losing market share >> no, no. steve, not atall

app apple is a strong share. it is on the android side of the world, it is just shrinking for many quarters. >> it is not losing outs with the -- losing out with the folding phone? >> no, not at all. apple is doing a good job with the spread between a 14 and 14 pro max is shrinking in terms of what you papy per month. >> until you upgrade next thing, is apple tv registering at all is it a big loser? where does that stand? any potential for the company? >> if you think of overall s services, $80 billion of services, you are talking about less than $1 billion for apple tv it is moving in the right direction. they have more content now than

before streaming is just under pressure right now. >> i'm watching something on apple tv >> i wish i had a business under $1 billion. >> it didn't marry >> wamasi, thank you coming up, the other big tech earnings story of the morning. amazon shares jumping after the blowout yquarter. we will dig deal into the numbers. we are counting down to the jobs report coming up at 8:30 a.m. you do not want to miss.

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welcome back amazon with the biggest earnings beat in years. joining us is brad ellison at rbc. good morning, brad what went right? >> good morning. kind of everything, huh? it turns out aws in q2 is the

trough that was the number one issue people cared about which was the cloud business and turning around to faster growth. second is they continued to show upside on the retail margin which is what everybody was waiting for longer term. third, you know, i really thought the ceo andy jassy laid down the hammer of a.i. and generative a.i. strategy people viewed amazon as a laggard after chatgpt and open a.i. i thought amazon's ceo put on the -- put out a stronger case and why they are well positioned last night. >> i want to take this piece by piece. let's talk about the consumer facing business. amazon.com where you order all that stuff how is that part of the business

doing? >> yeah. generally speaking, it is doing great. the third-party marketplace beat estimates last night i think in line with the other consumer reports through the earnings season, the consumer is proving resilient. in amazon's case, they talked a lot about putting more essentials and staple goods where people are tight ening th budget in cases and wanting faster delivery. they are doing well there. they worked on the cost structure and tightened the fulfillment and they are making money finally. the whole thing, years and years, amazon can't make money, but they are making money now. >> do we walk away thinking the consumer is in pretty good shape or is amazon adjusted the business for a more challenged consumer >> you know, from my

perspective, i would say the consumer is still in pretty good shape. we hear more caution around small business where those types of folks exercising caution. in general, you have airbnb last night with travel strong through the summer months. what is concerning or what people are concerned about still is the future. what does the holiday look like and then 2024? >> let's go to the web services part of this they had profit in the single digits and now back in the double digits. they are still forecasting double digit growth in aws >> they are. it was tricky to sift through what the cfo said on the call. what they implied is they exited the quarter at a faster growth

rate than where they started just the math of it is accelerate in q3, but not a ton, but maybe one or two percentage points they should accelerate after that. >> brad, have you changed your guidance or target on this stock? >> we have we have. we were out a bit ago and took the target up to $180 per share. the big factor there is our earnings estimates are operating margin estimates and earnings estimates went withup a lot las night. we set a conservative bar over what they could earn, particularly in the retail business and they are out outperforming expectations amazon stock gets look at crazy in valuation it got less crazy last night

>> thanks for joining us. >> thanks for having me. >> appreciate it >> that was interesting. >> yeah. when we come back, fisker set to report. phil lebeau will bring us the numbers and he has he has an in with the ceo phil fisker as we head to break, here is a look at the s&p 500 winners and losers

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times inquire y square you are looking at the first trait trader week in august. right now, dow futures up 33 s&p futures up 12. the nasdaq up 80. shares of draftkings are higher after the loss of 17 cents per share which was better than what the street was looking for revenue was higher than the $746

million estimate the company raised guidance for the year stock up $4. shares of bookings holdings are up sharply the company owns priceline and open table holdings. they beat expectations the company is expecting a record summer travel season for the third quarter. ceo glen fogel will join us at 7:50 a.m >> expedia was a different story. i'm looking forward to talk to glenn and see what they were seeing expedia was down >> americans are choosing to go overseas and that is hurting the airline. >> the u.s. airlines >> that are just domestic. >> we heard from frontier. >> and marriott is seeing that a boost in revenue per share

>> revenue per available room. >> boosting internationally, but going down domestically. i think people had enough of america. >> they finally got to get out. >> they were stuck here. how many times you see the grand canyon >> big hole. >> i don't want to get in trouble. a rough morning for real estate stocks. shares of open door and redfin tumbling in early trading. weak guidance is the theme open door is expecting revenue at $945 million. missing $1.63 billion. the july employment report is due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time let's bring in the next guest who is the national league urban president and ceo. mark, you had thoughts about the

work from home and what it means for low-income workers and what is interesting about this is everybody thinks work from home is a high-income worker thing. that is not the case. >> there are, if you will, opportunities for people to work from home and may work for single moms in the telemarketing space and in the sales space where people can legitimately work from home sometimes the challenge with working from home is whether you have upward mobility at a company. whether you can get stuck because you're in a job and not relationship building and people are not getting an opportunity to learn and see who you are there are new emerging opportunities where i have spoken to a number of people who post-pandemic have continued to work from home and juggled more

than one engagement. it may cut down on child care costs. i generally prefer hybrid work, but i think every business and employer is different. >> let's talk about the job market more broadly, marc. it has been very tight 3.6% that is not necessarily the case when it comes to all americans and especially when it comes to black and hispanic americans those unemployment rates are higher they are closer than they were how do you feel about the fed tightening up the economy or tightening up credit to try to slow the economy down? >> let me say this, this job market today, the consistency of job creation of over 200,000 jobs a month now for almost two years is a remarkable bounceback from the covid recession

it is the fastest recovery we have seen. it owes itself to monetary and fiscal policy and the response by the government to this downturn nonetheless, what we see is job creation gets above 300,000 and we see a narrowly black unemployment gap one key to flnarrowing the gap s robust job growth and training which helps people move up the ladder i like the direction i am not spiking the ball and not hopping on the court the issue is consistent job growth i encourage and hope the fed will pause its interest rate increases. i think we are in a place right now where inflation has eased and those who predicted recession seem to be absolutely wrong. it looks like we have avoided it

and the fed has navigated the job creation and we may get 200,000 today. hopefully we get 200 or 200 plus i do believe we're at the continuation of economic growth which is necessary and a strong robust jobs market helps, if you will, to reduce the black and unemployment gap it takes more than that. it takes continued eviffort at training and continued commitment to a diverse and inclusive and equitable work force by american business and universities and employers and government that commitment helps and is necessary if we're going close that gap and to close that gap is good for the overall economy because the more people we have working at maximum potential, the better it is for all americans. >> marc, i want to bring this conversation full circle i know you ran one of the great

cities in america for a while here the work from home situation is hurting and undermines the economics and workers in america. what should be the response of the mayors of this country to try to get people back in the work force one thing i noted, by the way, this goes back 1,000 years with the pandemic and the rich flee and go to the summer homes and go outside london to the countryside and leave workers back behind. now we have technology and they are not coming back. >> think of the challenges of san francisco and think of the challenges you see in manhattan. i would urge employers and hope employers are going to get their workers back in the office at least on a part-time basis i orun an organize in manhattan our employees work three days a week in office and two days a

week at home it is a good balance it has worked for us it maintains collaboration and increases productivity and work/life balance. the mayors have to work with the business communities and also it will require a pivot as to how you think about some of the excess office space and netermsf creating live/work spaces so as people leave downtown which is damaging not just for the cities and damaging for the reagion whether downtown chicago, manhattan, new orleans, atlanta and san francisco and seattle are the economic foothold for the region the downtown declines, if you will, it will impact the overall region and impacts the visitor industry the mayors have to work with the business community

some leaders in new york said you will come back in the office and we will ask you to come back in i think it is important that they continue pressure to bring p worker workers back into the office >> maybe the city should stop raising taxes. with the congestion pricing in new york. >> new york is an outlier. new york is different from other cities in america. i hesitate to use new york as the example. you talk about congestion pricing. i'll not get into it i understand it, but haven't been a fan of it >> good reason to move to harlem. >> we love harlem. we will be moving there in 2025. >> i want to thank you for joining us and thinking through these important issues

>> thank you for having me we look forward to the jobs report >> see you soon. >> thank you when we come back , we will talk about a crypto adjacent company up 150% year to date and the latest with steve schwarzman and what he thinks about commercial real estate because blackstone is the largest real estate investor in the country. we'll talk about that an reminder, you can get the best of "squawk box" by listening to your favorite podcast app. we'll be right back.

welcome back now to the stock we mentioned before the break the answer, of course, is coinbase shares have been volatile in the after hours trading. a loss of 42 cents a share that was better than 77 cents. revenue beat expectations. on the conference call, coinbase chief legal officer addressed the lawsuit against the company filed in june. he said he thinks coinbase can win and will present a motion to dismiss the suit today the stock up 1.25% the shares up 160% year to date boosted by the gain of 70% from the price of bitcoin.

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fisker reporting quarterly results. phil lebeau has the numbers. phil, what's up? >> becky, we have slightly better results on the bottom line smaller than expected loss of 25 cents a share. the street was expecting a loss of 28 cents a share. revenue, we are trying to dig through, 825,000 the estimate was 159 million

a huge difference there. we will get to the bottom in figuring out the balance sheet two pieces of news that will move the stock the most important is the company cut production guidance for the year facing supply chain challenges that is the reason for the cut it wil it is now going to be a range of 20 to 23,000 vehicles produced this year as opposed to 42,000 vehicles the gross margin is the other piece of news expected to come in in a range of 8% to 12% for the entire year. as you take a look at fisker up fractionally the real news is that they have cut their guidance for full-year production from 42,000 down to a range of 20 to 23,000. back to you. we have henrik fisker coming up a little later on. >> we look forward to that interview. thank you. motorola solutions reporting stronger than expected quarterly results. the public safety and enterprise security company reported double digit revenue growth and raised

its full-year revenue and earnings guidance. joining us on a "squawk" exclusive is ceo greg brown. good morning. >> thanks for having pe. >> let's talk about some of these numbers. you raised your profit to forecast 1148 earnings full year up from your earlier expectations what's happening i'm guessing this is strength because of what's happening with first responder equipment? >> yeah, we're in the right spot at the right time. this is the second time we're raising full year top and bottom line to your point, we do public safety and all the requisite emergency safety in city, states and countries around the world and enterprise security. what i mean by that and what we mean by that is we protect people, property places through

video security and access control. at the end of theday, becky, we're taking and linking the portfolio we've invested in organically and inorganically. when you think writ large broad public safety and security, we take those in need and link them to those who can help. we also do automated 911 imphand center software, 911 call handling can improve response time and be as productive as can be our addressable market 60 billion with the forward looking guide, it's a shade under 10, so we have room to run. we have a great addressable market we're investing capital organically and inorganically and i like the opportunity in front of us. >> greg, we have known each other for a long time. i remember when you took over at motorola, before motorola solutions before you spun that off, that was 15 years ago at that point cell phones were

75% of your revenue. the razor phone was hot but just as we had seen the advent of the iphone i know that was something you thought you couldn't compete with that was early on. you spun off all of that stuff that people thought, wait a minute, how could you give away that part of the business. this was the part of the business you thought was the best started out with something like $8 billion in market cap with this new business, i think and it's built up to $50 billion over time. >> yeah, after the financial crisis, we were down the whole market cap as a conglomerate prebreakup we have an enterprise value of $55 billion. we have a strong balance sheet, a great brand. this is the best team by far i've ever had. we've done 40 acquisitions since the split and the commodity of the cell phone business and the low margin wireless infrastructure business. we are all about public safety and security and the technology

ecosystem that links that critical information >> i wonder if you can help me with what's tied to government spending in the sense we've had this big push of government spending came out of the pandemic era states and local governments got a lot of money it seems like the tide is turning. people are concerned about deficits, people are -- that money that was given to the states and local governments won't be around forever. why wouldn't i be a little skeptical about your outlook given what i think is a trajectory of government spending >> that's a great question another variation, steve, is we were asked yesterday on the earnings call, greg, you have this great demand had, you're given this forward looking guidance and this one-time temporary infusion, how can we be confident you can do this over time? the answer is the demand we're seeing is largely nonaarpa

we track the orders and last year we think about 5%, less than 5% of the overall order volume was linked to arpa dollars and the inflation reduction act. as we track through the first half, it's he's less state and local revenues are strong tax revenue is strong. the need for public safety is as critical as ever not just public safety but thing like -- i heard you talk about the heat index related to jobs, steve. guess what, in natural disasters, katrina, hurricane ian and the like, a cell phone infrastructure, a consumer solution is not going to cut it. people want always on, consistently reliable, always redundant emergency communications that even if the entire infrastructure was wiped out, you still have real-time communications. >> i thought i had you, greg

you hit that one out of the park you were ready for that. i -- you didn't know that question was coming. >> i don't know any of the questions. >> greg, let me ask you one more about china because china is such a huge concern these days, especially in washington and with the business community. you warned for a long time that you don't want to do business with china, you don't do just about business there because of a run-in with a company. >> motorola was one of the first companies in china 1986, the galvin family. it was the right decision. you all know the story about china and the decision the country made about the entry into the wto by the way, a lot of consumers and companies benefitted over time i'm a bear on china. i think you got to be clear-eyed and eyes wide open about what you do we made the decision after we sued huawei, and we've sued

hightera we'll embroiled in the seventh year of lit rags and owe us a little under $700 million. there's a court hearing on august 17th in federal court in chicago where they owe us a $49 million downpayment for a royalty that goes into es screw. there's a few things people agree on in washington from a bipartisan standpoint, we have to understand china and the risks associated with us do i think we decouple no we derisk. we made that decision a decade ago. don't want to run the risk of intellectual property theft or source code and i think that decision has paid off well. >> i wish we had more time but thank you for being with us today. appreciate it. >> tnkhas, becky >> "squawk on the street" will be right back.

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good morning it's jobs friday we're going to get you ready for the numbers and find out what

could move nashgts markets in today's trading session. apple reporting a third straight quarter of falling sales. that stock is lower in the quarter. the sizzling summer travel season we'll speak to ceo glenn foley and the travel trends he's seeing the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin with the one and only becky quick and the professor, steve liesman, hanging out with us. how are you, steve >> well. we missed you. >> jobs friday this is the day for you. >> we missed you the first hour, andrew. >> glad you're here. we've got a lot to cover. >> let's take a look at u.s.

equity futures, show everybody where things stand all of this could change at 8:30 when we will get the jobs number right now dow off marginally, eight points looking at the nasdaq up around 38 points and the s&p 500 up about 4.5 points take a look at the two-year and ten-year 4.3 on the ten-year and the two-year at 4.9. >> thanks. we want to get to dom chu with a look at this morning's pre-market movers. you're going to run us through some of the earnings, we've heard? >> yes, two of them. apple and amazon running in opposite directions. the two most consequential earnings reports of the season, both in mega cap tech. apple, that stock is down by 2% right now. off the pre-market or after-market lows. those shares down 2%

quarter million shares of volume president iphone and app services giant reported better quarterly profits and revenues but the revenues did slide for the third straight quarter and the company suggested the trend kroo continue driven by slowing sales of hardware including iphones, mac computers apple services business accelerated growth from the previous quarter we're talking about a down 2% move given all of that the big influence on any outperformance we see, that andrew pointed out in the s&p or nasdaq is going to be amazon, up 9% right now, nearly 1 million shares of premarket volume reporting profits of revenue that both topped estimates it was the biggest beat since the fourth quarter of 2020 and driven in large part by cost cutting and unexpected growth at amazon services. amazon gave a more bullish

fourth quarter estimate. we're going to he end with a massive move higher in tupperware, up 59% in a company that's become a battleground for short squeeszers, up 3 million shares of volume because the consumer products name hyped it, food storage and household utensils agreed with creditors to restructure debt and try to have a turn-around strategy. remember, it's up big year-to-date but lost two-thirds of its value in the last 12 months tupperware, it's been a very volatile road so far but up 59% premarket right now. >> not the stock you would think for being so volatile like that. >> i get meme stocks and meme stocks you get some consumer names

people know and you talk about them a lot on internet boards and maybe things happen. >> there you go. thank you. we'll see you in a little bit. >> did we talk about his golfing plans this weekend >> nope. we'll catch him later. >> about 90 minutes until the big july jobs report that will be slice or dice for what it says about the economy outlook for the fed. not too hot for the fed hike and not too cold for concerns about recession. up 200,000 jobs. the unemployment rate coming in up unchanged at 3.6. year-over-year rate. three-month average down 100k from this time last year at 244 that's the three-month average, it's still more than double the people coming into the workforce. still a hot job market the data leading up to this report has been mixed, adp

strong the hr software company home base offers some high frequency data, they saloest level in 12 months reported a big decline in wages. looking at 62.6%, unchanged for four straight months and remains more than half a point below where it was before the pandemic there is scope for america to re-enter the workforce even though there's been influx from the lowest levels of the pandemic the number today will be the result of how much strength is left from the economic recovery from the pandemic. how much restraint is coming from the if ed with hopes that the number comes in just exactly perfect, becky >> big question with all the moving pieces this time around. >> there is. let's bring our guest in, chief economist at stiefel lindsey, i did not have a good

idea which way this number was going to go looking at the stuff we looked at do you have a good feel for it >> i do think we're going to see further indications of labor market conditions cooling with that top line number coming in closer to 200,000. right around that consensus figure average hourly earnings further cooling down to 4% the unemployment rate, i'm not expecting much move here still stubbornly low around 3.6% suggesting labor market conditions do remain tight this is going to complicate the picture for the fed because any indications of ongoing resilience, this is confident for investors that in the near term are going to suggest there's further evidence for a soft landing the idea that the fed can entirely bypass a recession. i would argue that the longer the labor market continues to push against the fed and fail to bend tighter monetary policy, the more aggressive the fed will

have to be ultimately resulting eventually in a more sizeable downturn of the u.s. economy it's going to be somewhat of a mixed bag in today's report. >> isn't it a real question as to whether or not the job market is even driving inflation right now? >> well, i think for the fed there's a number of different components that are driving inflation. yes, we see wage inflation, absolutely perpetuated by the notion of demand side inflation. there's other components stemming from supply side, stemming from what the market is calling greed-flation or corporate purview. for policymakers they're focused on inflation they can control. one of the largest component is that wage component. fed officials fear the wage price spiral where wages continue to rise but prices rise in lockstep continuing to elevate the cycle of inflation for the fed, that's the primary

focus. they know they can control that. they will continue to raise rates until they see progress in that underlying wage or demand component of inflation >> lindsey, i wanted to go back on this idea that you believe they believe they can control wages. i'm not sure that they -- even they think they can. i think they have to try, but as we were talking about last week when paul krugman wrote this piece about discomkdiscombobula all the work post-pandemic -- all the work on inflation has not necessarily been a fully a function of the fed as much as other things steve and i have been alluding to. >> there's a myriad of factors that have influenced inflation, but the fed can't sit back and say, well, we have to wait for market metrics to clear back to

equilibrium. the fed has to work with the tools they have. what they have is the ability to continue to raise rates, to tap down investment, tap down demand, eventually leading to a slower level of top line activity, a weaker labor market and by extension, more benign demand or wage-driven inflation. so the fed is very aware they can't control all components, but they're going to work with what they have. >> lindsey, i'm going to do some reporting with you for a story i'm doing next week. >> we'll watch. >> here's the deal what if the fed has this really wrong and what's happening is there is this productivity increase and the wages people are getting, if they're spurred by or underpinned by high productivity, they're not inflationary because people deserve that money because they're more productive and efficient?

i don't want to go too far with the recent productivity numbers we had because it's one quarter. if you look at what's happening, i'll explain this next week, we've had gdp at or above potential with declining inflation. if those are the only two numbers you had, lindsey, wouldn't you say there could be higher productivity in the u.s. economy than we've given it credit for >> i think that would be ultimately a very positive story. unfortunately, i don't think that's the case. now, we have seen somewhat of an uptick in productivity from record low levels. the u.s. economy was seeing less than half a percentage point of productivity for a prolonged period of time, but as we've seen in the recent reports, this is the -- they're actually reporting a downturn in productivity as a result of the work from home environment right now i don't think we can justify the rise in wages as a result of an increase in productivity and increase in output and, thus, concluding this is less inflationary for

the environment for the broader economy. i do think that would be more of a goldilock scenario, but, unfortunately, that's not what the data suggests at this point. >> thanks. we'll be watching this report this morning for just those sorts of things. thanks for helping us understand it. >> thank you coming up after this, we have a lot more on "squawk." apple under pressure take a look on the premarket after reporting a third quarter of falling sales it's the longest such stretch since 2016 we'll bring you more on the quarter and what investors should be doing in today's trading session after the break. and then an exclusive interview with blackstone's steve schwartzman, his reaction, the fixed downgrade, the state of real estate and so much more all straight ahead n't anywhere. "squawk box" rolls on after this help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools,

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welcome back to "squawk box. reaching a record high $21 billion in revenue but sales did slump by 1%. on the call, apple cfo saying apple sales are expected to decline in the current quarter as well. joining us, will power of baird, senior research analyst. good morning to you. when you start to hear that things are not growing on a top line, i know people get anxious. are you anxious? what are you thinking?

>> andrew, i think it was in line with expectations by the way, good morning thanks for having me the quarter looked okay relative to where forecasts were. i think the story on guidance was a bit more mixed a total revenue guidance a bit shy of where we and the street were the silver linings were they actually do expect iphone revenue and services to both accelerate from what they just experienced in the june quarter and the margins came in a bit better i think that's one of the reasons you're seeing the stock down a few percent here. this wouldn'ten unusual to have some element >> what do you think about the ipad and mac situation it looks like it's going to decline on a double digit basis in large parts because of the success they had prior let's give them credit there i'm so curious how you think about that piece of the business >> that business is expected to accelerate or to decelerate

double digits in the september quarter. that is disappointing. you're coming off some tough comps. it's a story that's been particularly resilient some of that is on product timing launches and they've been smaller pieces of the business the street has been focused -- the iphone is the biggest part my sense is as you start to get into better fx situation, easier as you move through the year, some of those declines could start to moderate through this next year. >> what's your expectation in terms of upgrade cycle, come this fall for the phone, and then, of course, you know, vision pro, which is going to effec effectively, i don't want to say the dogoggles, but does any of that change the dynamic for looking out 12 months? >> typically this is a stock that performs well in front of the next iphone cycle.

if you look over the next ten-year period it outperforms by a couple hundred basis points and we'll have to the see the new iphone everyone expects the new benefits this is a great annuity business and that's why investors have been willing to generate up for it i think the next iphone cycle is going to speak to the next trends we've seen over the last couple of years. when we look at vision pro, what it speaks to is the innovation engine that continues. that's one of the reasons we think investors are willing to pay a premium for the stock. this opens up, as you think about spatial computing, a whole lieu long-term opportunity for the company. the company is enthusiastic, of course, time will tell we're not going to start to understand the revenue impacts until we get into next year, but it speaks to the opportunity, not only spatial computing but big tam opportunities. what else can i do in financial services, apple card, savings?

there's still some nice growth opportunities still in front of the company. >> you know, we don't talk about the possibility of a car anymore. do you think that's off the table now? >> i don't think it's off the table. i think a lot is regulatory and how much they believe they can truly differentiate relative to what's out there i don't think they want to be the next tesla, right? they want to be able to leap frog what's in the marketplace today in terms of ev capabilities it fits at the intersection of software, hardware and services. that's where they've been ain able to differentiate in the past i don't think it's off the table but certainly something that's coming in the next couple of years. >> final question, we're at 186 bucks on the stock we're talking a year from now. where do you think it will be? >> we recently put in a $204 price target i think it can be north of $200. this is a stock we would be more aggressive on weakness given where we are from a valuation standpoint it is at the high end of

historic range but we think it can continue to continue to fire from here. >> thanks. appreciate it. becky? >> andrew, thanks. when we come back, hollywood striking writers and major studios holding their first talks in three months today. the latest on negotiations and the possibility of a deal is next let's take a look at the futures right now. the dow has actually turned down it's off by about 21 points. s&p futures up by two points the nasdaq still up by 27. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. what was purchased in the first commercial bitcoin transaction the answer when cnbc's "squawk box" continues now there's a hole in your defense; look at the size of that- gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! is that a goat?! you talkin' about me? gaaaaaaaaaaaap!!! i think this goat is saying “gap.” must be talking about the expenses health insurance doesn't cover. so who's talking about the money

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30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ >> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what was purchased in the first commercial bitcoin transaction the answer, pizza. a man in florida paid 10,000 bitcoins for two pizzas. welcome back to "squawk box. big day in hollywood today striking hollywood writers are holding their first talks with

major studios. in just three months now 11,000 members of the writers guild of america have been on the picket line since may we're joined by last month by striking actors. today negotiators for major studios and wga are expected to meet in person julia boorstin joins us. what doesthis mean is this the deep freeze? where do you think we are? >> i would say a tentative thaw because what's happening today is the negotiations don't start today. that's true meeting to discuss starting negotiations again. very much a preliminary step i think it's notable it's been 94 days as of yesterday. it will be 100 days as of august 9th. the last writers strike which was 15 years ago, that strike was 100 days i think there's a sense it's been three months, it's time for them to figure out if they can really start negotiating again i think a lot of the writers understand that it's time for

them to get back to work they're eager to start getting paid again and then the studios understand they are going to see a big impact to their fall tv lineup and continues even longer and could see even more impact of the film lineup as well. >> i remember us talking even several months ago there was always an expectation maybe this all comes from -- it all worked itself out by labor day. in large part because, frankly, the studios didn't have that much of an incentive to do a deal before labor day and the writers wanted to use whatever leverage they could have if this is the beginning of a thaw, is it possible in three weeks they could actually reach a deal, paper it up and get it done >> i think it's possible that in it is next month or so they could resolve this back when they were having conversations about the writers guild strike being resolved by labor day, that was before the

actors guilt also went on strike the fact that s.a.g. is also on strike is a complicating matter because it shows there are major riffs in the industry, specifically about compensation around streaming and also this tough question about a.i it will be interesting to see if progress among the writers and the studios leads to really push the actors guild to come back to the table. >> that's what i was going to separately act do these negotiations happen concurrently is the goal for the studios to do a deal with the writers first? and then attempt to negotiate with the actors? how do you see this happening? >> well, right now all we're hearing about is the wga coming back to the table. i think the fact the writers have been on strike much longer, i think that's putting pressure on their guild to figure out solutions -- >> create a blueprint with what the screen actors guild would go along with

>> there are some overlapping issues when it comes to streaming and a.i. there are some overlapping issues that could help create a blueprint for the actors but some issues are unique to the actors i think if there were to be an agreement between the writers and the studios, that would then really create incentives. >> we talked about how these are intractable positions. how do you plan to compromise in the middle >> i think everybody understands the industry has changed in an enormous amount because of the streaming business before actors and writers were paid if their tv show were incredibly successful. >> they would get a cut of it. >> and in success they would benefit from that. and a lot of what this -- both for the actors and writers, they want to be compensated more in terms of the success. >> the studios are happy to provide their success. netflix is like, forget about

it we're not telling you our secret. >> when i've been reporting there's a huge outside netflix i think netflix is seen as the company that forced the transformation in the industry i think there's an acknowledgment there will have to be more compensation for the success. >> at the end of the whole thing, can i do a drama or sitcom series written entirely in a.i. if you're a studio >> i think that's unlikely. >> they won't let that happen? >> i think that's one of the things they're fight being here. i would say you wouldn't get a drama or sitcom if you had to write it entirely by a.i. but the studio agreed to follow the labor rules. they're committed to employing writers and actors as part of that union until a.i. is part of that union, they wouldn't be able to do that. >> thank you. still to come, the sunny outlook on the summer travel season glenn fogel joins us later this hour and fisker unveiling four new ev prototypes.

ceo henrik is our special guest. first, exclusive interview with blackstone's steve schwartzman, why he thinks the credit downgrade is justified much more ahead on "squawk box." across the globe, industries are transforming and businesses need to navigate the changing landscape to stay ahead. when you partner with barclays, every change leads to a bold possibility. you have the vision. we have the insights, financial solutions and global perspectives to help you make it real. barclays corporate and investment bank powering possible. you know doug, ever since switching to workday you've been a real rock star. rock star? what do you know about rock stars? billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing!

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from nasdaq in times square we've been talking about what's happening with the markets and much more and what's happening with the futures dow futures right now down by about 20 points. s&p futures up by one. the nasdaq up by 22. private equity firm blackstone crossed the $1 trillion assets under management earlier this summer that's a far cry from the $400,000 the firm chairman started with back in the 1980s i sat down with schwartzman on an "squawk box" exclusive that went through a lot of ground we talked about artificial intelligence, real estate, his thoughts on the fitch downgrade

of u.s we started with the road to $1 trillion >> well, it was a long journey when we started in 1985. there weren't diversified private equity firms basically there were just about seven or eight firms just in leveraged buyouts. when we started, i was worried that if you just did one thing because there are no patents in finance, we had a strategy of wanting to go into other areas as long as it was really exciting for the investors people we could raise money from. >> innovation changing. >> we started to is have an innovation machine i thought it was necessary we were the only people who wanted to do that. so we got really lucky we were good at figuring out what was next.

you can sort of see it we went into real estate in 1991-92 at the bottom of a real estate collapse and now we've become the largest real estate investor in the world. and we went into hedge funds in late '80s. that proved to be a really good thing. and the debt business in 1998 before almost anybody else was doing that and we just had one thing after another. and each one i look at has an individual opportunity no grand strategy of exactly where we go, but our job was to create new products and great returns with very minimum risk. >> you mentioned you are the largest owner of real estate there are people that look at that and say, oh, no, commercial real estate in particular is a real problem spot. that's been the area that even though a lot of issues in the

financial market looked out, people look to that to say that's the next big problem. what do you do when people say, are you in trouble >> the answer is it's a great area but not all parts are great. so, the part that reflects -- that you were asking about, is in the office area today 20% nationally of offices are empty because people haven't come back to work. and at that level, office buildings are no longer really viable from an equity perspective. now, the new ones really are people want to be in those but if it's 10 or 15 years old, then have you that problem we had tons of office buildings at the financial crisis. 70% of what we owned in the united states, today we only own 2% of that problem area. the rest of what we own is where real estate is really terrific

warehouses, for example, are about 40% of what we own they're going up 12%, 14% a year in rent. hard to imagine that that's a problem because it isn't there are other areas in real estate like data centers, which literally are exploding with growth rents are going really high. so, what we find in real estate, there are good neighborhoods in effect and some really not good ones and our portfolio is hugely biased to the good areas >> when did you see the problems with commercial real estate, with the office buildings and say, we have to get out of this? >> it started in the late teens and we were finding that the cash flows coming off of those buildings weren't what they used to be. the cost of running them capital

expenditures, other things and we decided that we should really lighten up we did we made a huge switch. we switched out of shopping centers around 2015. so, part of the art of being terrific in the real estate business is knowing which sub asset classes to be in resort hotels which we have a bunch of i don't know what they call it is it revenge spending after the pandemic we made a profit, i think, over ten times the money in las vegas with a wonderful hotel so, if you're consistently in the right place at the right time, real estate, which is the second biggest asset class in the world is really a wonderful place to be. >> i remember, what was it, a

year and a half ago you started talking to your businesses about the potential for a downturn and making sure all of your companies were real estate kind of getting their things in order and making sure thing this is were ready to go in the cycle turned down if the interest rate went higher. what are you telling those companies right now? >> we were right on all of that. we have the banking crisis over the last few months and being conservative and having good financing was the way to go. the world is changing somewhat now, as you know instead of really going into recession, u.s. growth was 2.4% in the last quarter. shocked almost everyone. the u.s. economy is more resilient. what's really fascinating is how much inflation has gone down

if you remember, my partner jon gray goes on your show periodically, and we've been talking early inflation was way more than the government was reporting. i think that was true. and then we started talking about the fact that inflation was going down much more than the government thought and we're seeing it in our companies and i guess it was just reported 3% inflation that in no way surprised us and so it looks like the fed is actually doing a pretty remarkable job contrary to what people might have thought. if inflation continues to go down, that we have full employment, we may be able to skirt a recession. >> several big investors have looked at the downgrade that

fitch gave to it the united states' long-term debt this is an odd time for it fitch did make some good points and why they were downgrading, over things that happened over the last two decades what are your thoughts on the downgrade and what it means? >> nobody expected it, that's the first. secondly, the numbers justify it, regrettably. we've had an explosion of debt since the global financial crisis we don't appear to have a lot of discipline going forward we're running huge deficits now. so on the numbers, you can understand why they did it on the other hand, as jamie said, because jamie's always opini opinionated, i must say, the u.s. is the u.s. we are the reserve currency. we do defend a large part of the world, including people who have

aaa. and when there's a crisis in the world, they buy our securities that doesn't last forever if you don't keep some discipline so, in a way, it's a bit of a shot across the bow. on the other hand, people forget, it's actually a split rating moody's and standard & poor's have historically been the two major agencies one is aaa, one is aa plus i agree it's not going to make a huge difference really anyway for the debt markets but it is a little shocking when somebody just wakes up and says, i'm not so enthusiastic about your system. >> you've got a big donor to politics over the years, we're talking washington, let's jump into that. had you said after the 2022 midterm elections that you thought it was time for new leadership i get you're referring to

president -- former president trump, president biden have you made any decisions about who you're backing for this next election >> i'm sort of watching the thing with fascination as i said, i think it's time for a new generation of people to take that slot it's not the easiest job in the world. if we all watch this and the demands on people in that position of, frankly, unbelievable i think you need a certain amount of resiliency when you're approaching your 80s, i'm not sure that's the exact kind of position to be in, to have those demands made on you. in terms of myself, i'm just watching the whole thing because it's like -- it's like really

amazing thing. you have -- i guess it was somewhere around 60%, 65% of americans don't want the president to run, and 55% or so don't want the former president to run something's going to happen here and unbelievably, if you look at where we were 2015 at this time for the national election, the number one person was scott walker the number two was jeb bush. i'm talking on the republican side the number three was rudy giuliani and i think by the end of the second primary, they were all gone and so we're way ahead of a presidential election. in my observation, america is pretty volatile. you never quite know exactly what's going to happen except there's always a lot of drama.

>> a lot of drama for sure and i think we have more of that to come steve, back in february of 2019 i got to go with you to m.i.t. where you made a huge donation for artificial intelligence and beefing things up because you were concerned what china was doing with artificial intelligence and the potential for the united states to fall behind you wanted to make sure we didn't do that where are we in this race right now and what do you think of all the developments in a.i. this year >> well, what i would say at the start is the call on focusing on artificial intelligence, you know, starting with myself in 2015 and doing that large m.i.t. donation to start their new college of computing and doing something aligned to that with fx and a.i. at oxford, turned out to be the right calls because that's what's on everybody's mind now

what i would say with a.i. is this is one of the most exciting developments of a lifetime and a.i. isn't going to just be able to write poems for somebody's birthday. it's going to be part of everyone's life. it's going to change the way organizations are run. it's going to result in explosion of discoveries in medical science and drugs. it's going to change how education is done. it could be customized and basically be done around the world. it's going to change the profitability of certain companies. and blackstone we're relying on those. i just had a meeting with the 100 largest and made it clear to

everybody that this is the first move for advantage kind of technology where if we get there first with our companies, then they'll be much better positioned than somebody who shows up five years later. and what's interesting to me now, is the major companies in this field, microsoft, google, others, are all not only cooperating with u.s. government, they're pushing regulation because they really don't want bad things to happen with the rapid introduction of the technology i think what's going to happen is you'll ultimately have some type of global regulation. something like a super national institution that can audit what people are doing

think about analogy of whether it's the world trade organization or world health organization, but with more of the financial and auditing function to make sure that what people are developing really is safe >> will china try and slot the rule as they've done with the world health organization and the wto or do you think they'll come into line, too? >> it's hard to know the west and china now have such a complex relationship that it's difficult to predict what i'd say is that the chinese are very concerned about this type of technology because they don't have an open society the way we do. so, they're already trying to control this you know, there may be an opportunity to have the world operate together on this because

you don't want adverse things that could happen to happen. that may be a bit of a polyanna view but it's important to get this right. >> you can check out the "squawk box" or the full interview with steve schwartzman in your feed today. >> thanks. great interview. when we come back, a blowout quarter for booking.com. the countdown to the jobs report is officially on we'll get those numbers at 8:30 a.m. eastern time and bring you instant market reaction. don't go anywhere. i remember when i first started flying, and we would experience turbulence. i would watch the flight attendants. if they're not nervous, then i'm not going to be nervous. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situation. the relief that comes over people once they know they've got a guide to help them through, i definitely feel privileged to be in that position.

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welcome back, everybody. booking holdings reporting a blowout second quarter last night. earnings came in 30% above expectations and revenue up nearly 6% above expectations joining us is ceo glen fogel. of this was a blowout quarter. what are you doing that they're not? is this international travel >> well, thanks, becky, for having me. we are a very global company so there certainly are some issues there. last year we were coming out of

covid and it was a blowout for a second quarter last year very tough for people who were strong in the u.s. whereas in asia, we had some really good numbers, coming up 40% year over year and that was due to the fact that they were a little bit delayed in coming out. all in all i'm very good with how booking holdings is doing globally, final lip getting out of covid i was talking about how it's going to be years, not quarters. it turned out that way unfortunately but we're glad to be where we are. >> would you say it would be years, not quarters before you see the growth >> asia coming back still has a long way to go i think there and there's a lot of pent-up demand for travel people did not travel for three years and they saved a lot of

money and they want to spend it. i'm looking forward to a lot more travel. >> people have been saying oh my gosh, the consumer is going to move on in the u.s., we're not going to see the same contained spending on this have you seen any kind of slowing from the u.s. consumer >> we look for signals up see you see the airlines talking about a shift but there's talk people want to go international versus domestic. are people going to a lower star rating we're not seeing that. are people going for a short are stay not seeing that either we're not seeing any signs of slowdown and i'm thrilled people are spending their money on travel >> some of the hotel and rental rates are coming down in some markets. what do you attribute that to? >> some areas certainly there are some really expensive places because of incredible demand in certain areas. we talked about this last night

on the call. we see adrs are up globally so we're pleased with that. >> where's the strongest market? >> in terms of the growth area, we talked about what we saw in july and we saw asia still going very, very strong, 45% up year over year and that's a really strong number. again, you got to watch out because you're comping against a period depending how they're coming out of covid. right know globally people want to travel. >> the street is impressed booking holdings up by 11 1/4% this morning andrew >> a big hour ahead. the jobs report for july reaction from our panel of experts. it's all straight ahead. we're going to show you the futures right now but, boy, could these numbers change in a

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i remember being on aau trips, high school games. my mom would always say, "you need to fuel the body and you need salt." i'm like, "why do i need salt? like, who is going to do that?" she literally would make me rip open a pack of salt, pour it in my hand, and i would, like, lick my hand. sure enough, i would always be the kid not cramping, i would always be the kid energized, ready to go. fast forward 20 years and i go from eating salt out of my palm to a drinking lmnt.

good morning, it's a big one. we are set to get the july report ahead of that, futures, they are mixed ahead of the opening bell but a few painful days this week putting the s&p on pace for its

worst week in months and wrapping up the mega caps, amazon shares soaring on strong second quarter numbers but apple going the other way. we're going to get into everything that's weighing on the tech giant the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. this is cnbc i'm becky quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman. we have the jobs report coming up in less than half an hour we have seen the dow turn lower over the last couple of hours. it's indicated off by about 40 points s&p futures are flat, barely up by 12 points and you have treasury yields

moving steadily higher this week you'll see the 10-year is at 4.18%, the 2-year, at or near the highs we've seen to date >> we're following multiple big stories this morning the market tracking its worst week since march and steve ckovac. i want to start with you mike on the jobs number. >> we're kind of in pause mode for about three weeks the s&p 500 has chopped side ways. i view it as being caught between opposing currents. earnings are better than expected but the market kind of priced that in ahead of time, momentum cracked into the highs in july. seasonally we have a little bit

of a weaker period in august it's good that we're getting comfort with the soft landing but now we have to deal with those yields this is the 50-day moving average along with the s&p 500 we had a very modest pullback from mid june into late june down to 4400 you would say it's still a routine pullback to the 50-day average, a few percent down from here take a look at the nasdaq 100. obviously apple is backing off today after its numbers, but over a two-year period it's kind of interesting this 15,000 level is sort of where you've kind of gotten stuck there so if you stay above that, that sort of leaves you still in this zone of we're taking back most of that 2022 decline and, by the way, really have departed from the path of interest rates

so last year everyone is saying nasdaq's down because rates are up, that wasn't the whole story. earnings were also getting slashed. so far we'll see if that general area might hold here today outside of apple, some of those are reacting pretty well big selloff in bonds and it's not just about the u.s these are two etfs this is international government bonds and this is u.s. government bonds over the last little while, last year or so. you can see they've basically been in lock step. fitch downgraded the u.s. but yields going up across the world. japan got really released to the up side. there's a sense out there that maybe we can't declare victory over inflation we'll see if the yields quit at the top end of their range in the u.s., andrew >> thanks. appreciate that. we have our whole team all over

all sorts of numbers this morning. >> that's right. we want to get to apple's earnings report. we get right over to steve kovac. >> ref newspaper for the third quarter was down a percent to 81.8 billion but iphone revenues missed slightly amid weak demand across the u.s. and china. growth reactio accelerating and shares lower after apple implied the september quarter sales would fall again about 1%. apple did say iphone and it was sales will accelerate. that's going to be offset by a

steep decline in mac and ipad shows. apple blaming tough compares due to factory shutdowns last summer i talked to tim cook and he said he's seeing advertising and app store spending return boosting those results. as for a.i. he's telling me, quote, we've been doing research on a.i. and machine learning, including regenerative a.i. for years and we're going to continue investing and innovating and rolling these things into products that enrich people's lives he also told me products like the vision pro wouldn't even be possible without a.i.'s technology and the downgrade, fitch telling me, quote, it's not something i'm deeply concerned about more in line with the jamie dimons of the world. >> going back to what happens with hardware, obviously they've

seen a resurgence in the services business. do they think hardware will have a resurgence as well past the september month or maybe even beyond in. >> they are not guiding beyond the september quarter. analysts tried to get that answered on the call the cfo was asked a lot of questions about this guidance, why there's more color and weakness and demand. tim cook telling me we'll have to wait to get through the september quarter to find out whether the finance slump has evened out >> okay, thanks. and now we go to amazon. good morning to you. >> good morning, andrew. it showed the street efficiency

and stabilization, two words that are music to investors' ears right now all the money amazon put into doubling its logistics print, it's paying off in terms of faster delivery time and the overhauling of that vast benj network, margins extremely thin but better than the last six quarters and there were worries revenue growth could dip butch it came in at 12%. on top of that, amazon did not indicate it would have to spend big on cloud infrastructure and microsoft and google telegraph last week. it translates largely into upgraded servers and the cpu that amazon makes.

nvidia expects it's cap to be lower this year. andy jassy spent a lot of time on the call discussing their strategy he reiterated they are still early and amazon, it doesn't have a flashy single offering like chatgdp >> there's such a perception around chatgdp that i don't know if machine learning and some of the other earnings that apple and others are pursuing are understood >> amazon is a little more --

they mention so many times that the first player is compute. the second lane they call large language models as a service and that can be open or close source and the third layer they talk about is application that would be your chatgdp or bart the applications like achatgdp there are going to be so many and they're working on one in health care. it's not as flashly. it's a little more complicated >> thank you >> steve >> the ceo of nikola stepping down because of a health matter. the chairman has been named ceo of the company the company losing 20 cents a share during the quarter but that was a smaller loss than expected for the ev maker.

revenues were roughly in line at 16.36 million. first customer deliveries are expected to take place in september. coming up, breaking economic data we got the july jobs reports coming up and after that tech earnings takeaways with investor doom niles but coming up an interview with the kceo of fisker ♪♪ it's time to bring balance to business travel. and discover the equilibrium that works for you. at national, you're in control. skip the counter, choose any car in the aisle... and manage your rental right from the app. so you can mix work... with leisure. or leisure...

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ev maker fisker reporting. let's go to phil lebeau. >> we heard about the smaller-than-expected lost i think a lot of people are asking questions about your guidance in terms of vehicle production you have cut it again down to a range of 20 to 23,000. what's the issue why are you cutting production guidance again >> everyone is looking at production guidance for a year we only have half a year production this year we start delivering cars a couple of months ago so now we

are at mid year and i think what's really important here is that we get to our goal of 300 cars a day, which is 6,000 cars a month and we will reach that in the next couple of months so, look, we got a late start. we have now produced about 2,000 vehicles we have about 850 vehicles on the way to customers so i think we really now are on the right way. we had some hiccups in the beginning with our supplier in europe that went bankrupt a couple of months ago, we had to figure that out and now we're really just down to one supplier that we need to get back up to speed. but apart from that i think we're really on a roll now >> henrik, you ended 21 with approximately 70,000 reservations you're not giving guidance on reservations right now or an update on where they are right now. where do they stand and is there an issue with converting reservations into actual

deliveries >> no, really not. we just keep on delivering we didn't go into 70,000 i think we said 62 to 65,000 i think we're well over 70,000 now. we've seen basically people are saying i just got off my lease and i still have to wait a year to get my car. so i think that might be a certain issue in the u.s we've actually seen reservations going up in europe converting really has not been a problem. we are delivering vehicles, people are taking the vehicles, they love the vehicles that's actually been quite good. >> last night you guys showed a sneak peek of your future lineup of vehicles, including the alaska, which will be an electric pickup truck. i mentioned this to a friend as soon as i saw the pictures, and the friend said another electric

pickup truck does fisker really think there will be a market there >> i think you forgot to mention the price, phil. this wasn't another 80 to $100,000 pickup truck. it's 37,900. there's not a single electric pickup truck in that market. i think it's the hottest market right now in north america we already got a thousand orders on this vehicle just from last night. so i think this is going to be a huge success to bring out a pickup truck that is fun to drive, that has a versatile bed that goes from four and a half foot to seven and a half to 9.6 feet so i think this is a stand alone, absolutely amazing vehicle and the feedback was astonishing. i think there's room for something more sporty, something more affordable in the electric pickup segment if you made another hundred thousand dollars pickup truck not needed it but this is around

$40,000. definitely a lot of potential for this vehicle >> henrik, real quick. we're running up against the jobs report coming out shortly how much pressure are you feeling to cut prices on the ocean given what you're seeing with tesla and concerns about ev pricing overall? >> well, really nothing because we came out with very good pricing in 2020, starts at $37,500, up to 68,000 the truth is that the car makers that, you know, they've raised the prices and now they really just put them down to where they were in 2020 we never really raised the price in '21 and '22 because we weren't selling cars so i think everyone is down to the same level. i think we have an amazing competitive electric suv, the

longest range of 350 miles, we got at least four features nobody else has, california mode, et cetera. we have seen people just being amazing how this car drives. the road holding, the features so everything actually is looking really good. we don't see any pressure on going prices in fact i just want to mention -- >> make it quick >> 18 1/2% profit margin on the first cars you forgot about that one. >> true. that's with the first impression and early deliveries but we will see as the rest of this year shakes out henrik, thank you for joining us this morning, founder and ceo of fisker as they report a smaller-than-expected loss for the second quarter andrew, back to you. >> i want to show you shares of

icahn enterprises, saying the second quarter partially reflected the impact of short selling on companies it controls or invests in, which he attributed to the hindenburg report on the company. and can youing its dividend by half but that stock off close to 22%. >> hey, andrew, just looking at this the hindenberg report, he called the dividends there ponzi-like he said the cash flow of the company and investment performance wouldn't be enough to sustain it. this is the first reduction since 2011 icahn making comments saying going forward we intend to stick to our knitting and focus on our activist strategy. obviously the stock has been under pretty severe pressure since that hindenberg report, which pointed out the fund had

$5.3 billion in debt and more than a billion dollars would come due in each year, '24, '25, '26. this is really interesting, two things to take out of it, the dividend being cut and icahn saying he did have success with illumina. >> the activist going after the activist it's kind of fun to watch but not too much fun to be part of coming up, the latest employment report from the labor didn't is coming expecting an addition of 200,000 jobs for july. don't go anywhere. wecong b're miack with the bug number in just seconds you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf

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welcome back to "squawk box. we have now housing sector data that's encouraging to consumer

data levels. >> good morning, adndrew. home prices just hit new record highs in 60% of markets in an exclusive report from black knight up .8% from last year. nearly every major mark saw gains month to month this is why affordability is at a 37-year low. current homeowners who carry mortgages in the 3 or 4% range need just 21% of the median household income to make the monthly mortgage payment prospective home buyers today are looking at paying more than 36 of their income on that payment thanks to home prices and higher mortgage rates and the 30-year fixed hit 7.2% it has made homeowners much

wealthier once again total equity 16 trillion and tapable equity rose to 10.5 trillion about $200,000 per homeowner. >> and spending possibilities. thank you very much. up next, the big number. we've got july jobs. our panel is standing by for the data, ady reto bring us instant reaction don't go anywhere. "squawk box" will be right back. . dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers flexible spending limits that adapt with his business. he used his card to furnish a new exam room, and everyone was happy. built for dr. petsworth business. built for your business. amex business.

all right, welcome back to "squawk box. we have just about two minutes to go until we get the jobs report tyler goodspeed is the acting -- or served as the acting council of economic advisers chair and he's a fellow at the hoover institution. jennifer harris, senior director of economics on the national security council and national economic council and sara velick we've got a small amount of time tyler, what do you think the one most important piece of information you'll be looking for in this jobs report is >> well, it's an imperfect measure but i'll be looking at the hourly wage numbers because right now we have wage inflation of about 4 to 4.5% and

productivity, which is not consistent with inflation of 2%. >> jennifer, how about you sfli think we'll take more good news in the way that we've seen the past week in bidenomics playing in realtime. i think it will be consistent with the gains and real wages. sara, how about you? >> i think it will be a strong number but i'm going to be watching the unemployment rate if you look at the labor report, is now at a hyper level. there's just not a will the of slack left in the workforce. >> 200 on jobs, 3.6 on the unemployment rate, 0.3 on the wages and that would lead to a

your late of 4.2%. we're looking for a number not too hot and not too cold >> dow futures are up by 0.1%, and nasdaq up about .5 right now we want to hand it over to rick santelli, who has that number. rick >> yes we are awaiting the july payrolls number from the bureau of labor statistic the change in non-farm payroll is under 200,000, 187,000. this is a new low on this cycle. last month hasn't been revised yet, 209 this now becomes the lowest level since december of 2020 when we were at minus 268,000. private payrolls 172,000, bit better than expected we should mention a two-month

revision, minus 49,000 so we are taking some jobs away. the unemployment rate 3.5. the cycle low has been 3.4 in january and april this year. if we look at average hourly earnings, it ticked up to 0.4 but equals rear view mirror at 0.4. that makes it one, two, three, four tens in a row after would be paid attention to because the year-over-year earnings did the same thing 4.4, just like last month but technically you have to go back to june of '21 to find anything under 4% and that was a 3.9.

if we look at the work week, 34.3 on the work week, that equals the psych el low. we had that also in may. labor force participation, 62.6, exactly as expected, exactly as in the rear view mirror. and we were right to focus on that large group but generically speaking, february of 2020 this number was 63.3. we have not had a 63 handle since. and finally the underemployment rate, this is the companion to 3.5%, which is u3, u6 is 6.7%. the low there has been 6.5%. that was in december of last year interest rates were highly unchanged. before we saw a little action to

the down side but it's still at 418 and just to make you all grin 418 is unchanged on the day, up 23 basis points on the week. if you look at two years, what a difference scenario. two years are at 488, which means they are basically unchanged on the day and unchanged on the week, which goes to show us how much movement there's been in yield curves becky and the gang, back to you

> >> hourly earnings a question with how much productivity might be inside that number. tyler is right on the face of it, it's too high to support inflation unless it backed up by activity 15,000 on the government side. i saw i thought 8 1/2 on the retail side. nothing really sticking out as a thing that really pushed it higher or made it lower. it's all in the service sector manufacturing was down 2000 and then we had what was the construction i think was plus 19,000, which is always interesting. we cannot seem to get or budge off -- we had a nice ride up on the participation rate and now it's flat line we can't seem to get more people into the workforce this will be a topic of debate it may take a higher wage. it may be what the issue has been is older folks who have left the workforce and not come back there's always this flow back from the 55 or 65 and older crowd. they've not come back. and we doesn't know exactly why

or what it would take to make that happen. i haven't looked at today's number but the 25 to 54, that participation rate is back to where it was before the pandemic but the overall is down in part because of what's happening with the older. >> andrew, average hourly earnings, what do you think it means for the fed? >> i think it means this is mostly a supply story or more of a supply story than demand story. demand probably hasn't cooled that much for labor but we have a supply issue i think steve is spot on to note that the problem here is we now have an employment population ratio for 25 to 54-year-olds that is back to or even above where it was prepandemic but in the meantime we've had a demographic transition

1957 baby boomers all turned 65 last year. it's going to be harder to add as many jobs just given the supply constraints >> that's an interesting point jennifer, you said that you were looking for gains in real wages but when you start talking about a supply side problem, that's an interesting one to try and get your arms around, especially with what it means for inflation. >> well, i think we do see gains in real wages when you compare these numbers to the latest inflation numbers, which not for nothing came down much more sharply than were expected it's important to put today's news into context, a string of fantastic economic news and cooling inflation. when you look at the labor productivity rates that have just come out in the last few days you see real gains in

productivity they are coming in part from a shift towards higher wang, higher productivity types of jobs these are good jobs that are still very strong. all of this as inflation is cooling i think points to a new economic model this is bidenomics at work it's a live experiment that we haven't run in this country. >> housing investor, a look at this >> we're dealing with three challenges, the debt downgrade and energy prices are up about 15%. we just experienced one of the largest winning streaks for the market in almost a century that was based on better than expected earning and more breadth for the market and other

factors driving the market i think that's now going to come to an end. i think i went to low liquidity august and likely starts a trade down to 4,300 and we stay in this range until we fet the next catalyst, which is probably around growth inflation and how we'll deal with that now that we've gotten the dow grades this week >> rick, i don't see the fed funds moving up. we're still in the chance of a november hike -- >> when you say 32%, though, you are combining maybe. you're doing it a little different than some of us. but we're close. i guess the story there is quite simple the fed is really going to have a tough job, steve, bus the normalization is taking much, much longer. i think we're going to normalize to more of a precovid worl outside of a couple areas but it's taking longer i see that being a very tough area for the fed to deal with because ultimately i think we

all know inflation is going to get to much more moderate levels but in the interim period where they're not sure, they're going to have to give us tough love and that's a tough situation the two areas i'm looking at it seems like employees definitely have it over employers, whether it's strikes, strength in unions, pay scales continue to go up. i don't see that subsiding any time soon, and the other area i know i'm a broken cd on this and i apologize but the transition is going to be messy as we go to electrification, we see ploses in various dealers and automakers this isn't go. this is going to get messy and i think those areas will end up sticky inflation >> rick, typically the bond market doesn't trade so much on supply is it trading on supply now?

is a lot of this increase we've had in the long end a result of announcements by the treasury of the amount of issuance that's coming down the pike ia, i think there is a lot of that going on. but i think what health insurance done is created a logisticsish ou as positions, even though the timeline might stretch out, has nailed short securities to the wall and made supply restocking the treasury after the government issues that we had a little bit more complicated. and then when you even take it further from there, servicing the debt is getting more expensive and with the fitch downgrade, i don't know that it has any lasting it is putting more and more shorts into the market and that is really jostling around these monster trades that have been going on for years.

>> that's interesting. tyler, why don't you touch with what rick was talking about and sara pointed to. you heard what bill ackerman said yesterday or two days ago, i guess, just worried the fed will not get inflation down below 3% trying to get to that pinl what do you think, tyler? >> yeah, i mean, for one thing base effects, reverse sign in july and energy probably picked up a little bit, food prices are ticking up a bit when inflation is before 3%, could be and we've seen that as the perception rises that the fed is done just one more than conditions indcys start to

recede so i think that points to a no landing the near term scenario >> gennifer, you uk an economic poll for 15 or 17 years now. it's hard to see a situation where people have been more down beat on the commit and it's always because of inflation. should the administration have done more to reduce spending and help bring down inflation? >> no, i think that's an easy one. i think the situation calls for a bit of patience. this has been a hard, strange couple of years and i think that's what's doing the work in lagging attitudes on the economy. but, again, if you put today's numbers in the larger context, a string of good news starting with the fact that inflation is coming down more sharply than the economists are and i'm happy

to see a mature and almost certain soft landing >> i want to thank our panel today. >> the market's about nothing, right? maybe jennifer is right. mabb it. >> you have talked about a pretty active week to this point whereas as week -- >> and the market had told off earlier but no reason to sell off further. >> no. andrew, back to you. >> more market reaction from the in you and coming up we'll show you how apple and am zwlon stocks are moving this morning and you get the break of our daily podcasfcl t hband we'll be

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sofi get your money right. regulators are working on new requirements for private equity and hedge funds that could change how those industries disclose information to investors a new rule could be introduced as soon as this month and could provide managers to provide statements on performance, compensation, expensions

i spoke with steve schwarzman about the outlook for potential regulation >> i frankly have no idea where this will come out if it goes really very far, there will be probably, country might be sensible. it depends how they're doing hopefully they'll be responsible regulators and life will go on very much the way it has we have enormous disclosure in terms of what we do. we've got everybody looking at us, we've got everything and so there was sort of a squeaky clean world and we have huge investors and they want to know what's going on all the time so i think there's a bit of a misperception in terms of people just off on their own doing whatever they're doing that is not the case

this is something the sec has been looking into. you could see some new rules unveiled as early as later this month. they put the kind of outline, the blueprint for these rules out in may we've gotten a lot of comments that have come through on this but gary gensler, the sec share, said they want to look at this because private funds have success and form sm many om of down to the more stringent regulatory and oversight environment we've seen in washington >> we'll see what happens. some of the rules make sense, maybe some are a little too broad. we got to get over to dom chu, looking a the some of the biggest premarket movers this morning. dom? and what's changed, by the way, in the last 10 minutes, 15

minutes. >> it's apple and amazon but other bigger moves, some of these earnings stories in the premarket action are going outside of those we want to turn to finn technical down here, coin bus, crypto currency exchange reporting a smaller. than-second loss you have shars and also beat estimate but guidance was a key pressure of operating profit, may have fallen below some estimates so we're down there. we'll end on cyber security, 350 thursday of shall assumon the revenue outlook fell shy and true and we'll keep an eye on fortnet. back to you. >> thanks.

let's take another check on something else that's moving in in other big way, that's aye con nt and the veech is an activist fund that shorts company short, we should say, and said they were going to have to cut the dividend and that the dividend unto itself was in their minds a bit of a pyramid scheme or ponzi scheme nonetheless, keep an eye on that stock this morning coming up, a can't-miss interview, top tech investor dan niles is going to be witus dot awhe. n'gonyer h

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♪ welcome back to "squawk. the july employment report is showing a gain now of 187,000 jobs last month. that is below expectations of 200,000, and the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.5%. we're, of course, also paying close attention to apple and amazon after both the tech giants reported quarterly earnings, diverged a bit joining us to talk about all of it, dan niles, partner and senior portfolio manager at the satori fund. good morning to you.

let's get broad first, given the jobs numbers, maybe -- >> you are now getting to much more difficult compares relative to inflation cpi peaked at 1.9% in june of last year, and if you look at what's going on right now, you've got about 50% more job openings than people unemployed. average hourly earnings are up 4.4% you've seen all these strikes going on, and the big thing underneath this is oil is surging. it was down about $67 back in the middle of june it's now over $80, and that feeds into a lot of costs, and then in addition to that, between what japan's doing with yield curve control and the u.s. treasury having to go ahead and issue about a trillion dollars

this quarter, $850 billion in q4, that's going to put upward pressure on yields and that's really been a big driver of multiples expanding because it hasn't been earnings earnings are down this year. it's the multiples >> so, dan, though, how convicted are you that we're going to have a 10%, effectively, correction if that was the case, on a relative basis to where we are? are you shorting things? what are you doing >> well, yeah, you got to remember, we run a concentrated portfolio. it's about 20 to 40 stocks for us, it's about stock picking. i would -- i'm long amazon it's the largest position in my fund, and that's with the backdrop where i'm concerned about this and -- but on the same side, we're short apple. so, for us, it comes down to stock picking to get us through this that's what had us making money last year in a very down tick for the market so, the multiple right now,

andrew, at 3% cpi, if you look back over seven years of data, the average s&p multiple is 19 times. it's sitting at 21 times so, to get it just back to average, if you're worried about inflation maybe ticking up higher than what people think after ten months of downside surprises to headline cpi, you know, that's a 10% correction in the multiple, which is a 10% correction in stock prices >> dan, you said something fascinating, and then i want to bring steve liesman into this. you said you were long amazon in this environment and short apple. your expectation for where amazon is, then, in 6 or 12 months and where do you think apple is >> well, look at it this way with apple people can say whatever they want about services, et cetera, driving revenues, but remember, apple, in fiscal '19, before covid hit, their revenues in fiscal '19 were down 2%. they've now had three down year over year quarters in a row, and they guided to a fourth.

that hasn't happened in 20 years. now, that wouldn't matter except the stock's trading at a 30 pe the s&p is trading at a 21 pe, and apple has no revenue growth this year. you compare it against our favorite pick coming into this year or top five pick, facebook. facebook is growing revenue 13% this year and trades at a 24 multiple or look at google. 8% revenue growth this year, trading at a 23 multiple you know, if you want to look at apple and ignore the multiple, that's great, and the multiple has driven the entire stock move this year. earnings went down after they reported this june quarter multiple keeps going up. that's terrific if you own it, but that's not a game i want to play, counting on multiple expansion offsetting earnings going down >> dan, i want to get back to what you were talking about about stock picking. i think it's interesting that you get this tandem here, apple and amazon, both going different ways, different movements in the

stock. is this period where you can just buy big tech, is that over? how do you replace that? is it you just can't go by qqq now? is that the essential idea >> that's 100% correct, steve. and you've seen that with results, even. microsoft guided their intelligent cloud business below expectations, not by much, but remember, they are a major investor in openai, which has chatgpt. and their numbers still went down for intelligent cloud you look at tesla. they went down on earnings you look at netflix. they went down on earnings you look at apple. unless something changes, they're going to be down on earnings but a they weren't that great. but you look at google, meta, amazon, they're all up big on earnings and they should be because the numbers are going up after they reported. so, this whole magnificent seven trade by the qs as you put it, yeah, i think that's gone, especially with where we are on

ten-year treasury yield and the fact that not every company is nvidia and you know, fort net, which you mentioned earlier, security. absolutely what could possibly go wrong a.i. is driving so many security threats, companies are going to have to spend more guess what in a year of efficiency, if you're spending more on nvidia chips, you're taking it out of other portions of your budget. and that's what you're seeing. and it's not just fort net you've seen that with the networking companies, juniper, nokia, you've seen it with accenture as well. all these companies may say a.i. 50 times on their earnings releasts but it doesn't mean there isn't bifurcation among the sector >> i want to thank you for your perspective this morning fascinating stuff. thanks becky? all right, let's take a final check on the markets here we are, end of the week, and what has been an interesting and somewhat more challenging

week for equities, but you're ending right now with the futures indicated up dow futures up by about 42 the s&p futures, up by 12. got the nasdaq indicated up by 74 >> becky's sitting on suntan lotion already now she's putting it on for her vacation >> steve, i want to thank you for being with us today. andrew, it's been fun. join us next week, everyone. right now, it's time for "squawk on the street. ♪ good friday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with mike santoli, morgan brennan. jim and david have the morning off. july jobs comes in with a second straight miss. 187,000 with some negative revisions. two straight months now below 200,000. premarket pretty steady as we look over last night's stack of earnings as well our road map begins with that cooling labor market what does that mean for the fed? plus, apple weighing on the markets. the company delivering a surprise profit an