includes met life stadium, may i say. just saying. >> all i'm saying is -- >> we welcome him. >> we hope he can pull this off. there is no small amount of pressure on this man >> have a great weekend, everybody. thanks for watching. >> "closing bell" starts right now. and welcome to "closing bell." i'm carl quintanilla in for scott wapner this make or break hour begins with this friday fade. bulls did have the ball midday, but they stumbled late in the session on the back of a 4% drop in shares of apple bond yields do retreat dow was up 200-plus midday, now down 115 s&p got to 4,530 or so now 4,483. leads us to our talk of the tape is this week's pullback the beginning of something bigger as the s&p looks to snap a three-week win streak? let's ask cnbc contributor tom lee, fund strat's head of research on a summer friday.

tom, great to have you as always thanks for the time today. >> great to see you, carl. >> i know you've been leery of the month of august in general did this morning's early tone do anything to change that? >> yes and no. i think there are some constructive things that happened today that make myself and mark, head of technical strategy, think we're actually in a bottoming, possibly for the month of august. the dollar reverse,ed sharply, and yields turned down, and as you know, both would be pretty big headwinds for stocks as we got into august, it's been a rough four days so far, but i think the jobs number was pretty decent and then i am kind of optimistic that we're going to get a good cpi report next week. so, that's kind of a road map to seeing stocks do better next week >> yeah. we have had a lot of chatter today about what cpi is going to bring us i think you could maybe argue the tone is relatively optimistic given what we think used cars and rent is going to do in the coming weeks

>> yes, that's right and i think, you know, and i heard your interview this morning with jan used cars and housing are the two of the three biggest contributors to core inflation over the past year, but if it indeed is starting to glide past lower, and used cars could fall another 30%, and housing on the cpi could fall another 8 or 9%, that would set up the stage for three or four months worth of negative contribution from those pieces, so i think core could print close to -- below 3%, maybe high 2s for several months, and that's why it would look pretty attractive >> and iyou've been pretty vocal and early, i would argue, in arguing that inflation was, in your words, going to fall like a rock and that's something investors were not positioned with but i would imagine you would argue, too, that the studying gets a little tougher from here. >> it does i mean, the market's up 20% year

to date, so less bad news is discounted i'm still pretty surprised how many of our institutional investor clients lean bearish. you know, in the last four days, a lot of them have jumped on, again, to bet against stocks rising i mean, there is some technical reasons to be a little bearish in august, but i think people are really quick to flip bearish here that's not a sign of an ebullient market it's a sign of people getting pulled in, and there's still $5.5 trillion of cash waiting to get pulled in. >> talk to me about what you think yields told us today we have had some high-profile announcements of short bets on the long end we got to 4.2% on the ten-year, now 4.06%. is there a sense, do you think, that maybe this trend that we're getting this afternoon can continue >> you know, i think that, like, the logical side would take the side of, like, the ackmans and what jamie said, which is that

long-end rates should be rising because we might have higher inflation plus some risk premium and term premium, but as much as that's being said, we know that there's a lot of political considerations and the potential for the fed to cut rates next year and the fact that rates are so low in the rest of the world that i think that those actually act as anchors to keep rates lower than we think they should be, and mark, our technical strategist, does think we're going get repelled from here, so if ten-year yields keep falling, it's good for stocks >> yeah. the other thing i thought was notable today, tom, was some of the major macro strategists, bank of america, title of their note, "we see a soft landing." last fall, they were looking for negative payroll growth this year and jpmorgan, the end is not near, arguing that a recession in -- basically, people who have been calling for recession in '23 are running out of room, right? >> yeah.

i think, you know, i think that a lot of economists underestimated the dynamic ability of companies to adjust quickly. you know, last year, the fed told every company to get ready for higher rates and companies prepared for that, so they weren't tripped up over building a bull whip effect, so we have had a pronounced slowdown, but then we don't have to have the contraction because there's no inventory to work off and no massive layoffs coming i think that's why, when rates begin to cool and mortgage rates fall and inflation cools, it could be a pretty vigorous upcycle too. >> that said, i wonder what your take has been, watching names that do miss on earnings, and how they've been significantly punished, i guess, and where that leads you in your playbook. i know you still like f.a.n.g. you look software. you like some elements of energy and i believe even industrials, right, honeywell >> yeah.

well, carl, i think if we're in a market environment where stocks go up but then when you miss, you fall big, it generally happens in two times either you're at the end cycle, like, you know, you're about to go into a recession, or the market has no oxygen i mean, this -- there's been almost no net inflows. retail has taken $110 billion out of the stock market this year buybacks have slowed institutional investors are flipping bearish so, i think that means a narrow set of stocks have that support. that's really distanced and not connected to fundamentals, and i think if inflation's falling and fundamentals are turning, sponsorship of stocks is going to change. so, i think that the more symptomatic of just low liquidity. >> right finally, you know, you've made a name for yourself, tom, i would argue, in recent years, making outsize calls in either direction. it's been a good year for you so far this year. are you in the mood to up your target year-end? are you going to hold your cards

closer to the vest this time >> well, you know, sometimes it's timing because i know some folks have been, like, raising targets at the start of the month, but i was very wary -- i'm very wary about the month of august just because in my anecdotal experience, no one's ever made money in the month as we exit the year, our 4825 does look a little low, given if the fed -- if july's the last hike and financial conditions are easing and inflation's cooling and then there's another expansion cycle starting, we pull forward a lot of that multiple expansion, so the s&p could be far higher than 4,800 >> interesting kw we'll see if we grow into that tom, stick around. let's bring in john to talk about today's action i'm curious to know your reaction to tom's comments, because i know you're looking at this market through a defensive lens >> we entered the year very bullish, so back in october,

november, december, we were actually moving away from defensives we had our lowest weighting in utilities, health care stocks and staples. we were very bullish and that was predicated on very different kind of valuations relative to defensive. what is fascinating now is what really has happened is tpip back in june has rolled over pretty significantly alongside m-2, and what's happened is as investors have been forced to reconsider their recession calls, it's created more and more dislocation in the more defensive areas. so, we now have actually been peeling back technology, peeling back industrial, and we've been adding to utilities, adding to staples. the one small difference in our positioning is we actually got pretty overweight banks after the clearing event back in march, and one little fact i'll share is that over the last three months, the regional bank basket is actually outperforming the qqqs by 1,100 basis points

so if those companies have reported better than folks expected, there's beginning to be a rewrite as those got very discounted after march >> that's an interesting take. bryn, i'd love to get your view on what apple's trying to tell us this afternoon. first peek below the 50-day since january. 4.5% drop in apple is hard to ignore >> it's definitely hard to ignore i think that's why the nasdaq, which is such a big weighting in the nasdaq and s&p, i think with apple, it's interesting. the phones are so high quality, i think even the upgrade cycle is going to be longer baecause you don't need that upgrade. people's phones aren't breaking. the glass is better. what's interesting is that their services, which are so high margin, you know, they had over $21 billion, and i don't know of any other company that has such a sticky ecosystem with such

amazing brand recognition. so, i think that ultimately, what i think about with apple or any company is what multiple is the market willing to pay for this stock and for this quarter, when you have no revenue growth, they're going to see weaker earnings, weaker revenues next quarter i think the company could easily just take a break and take a breather, but i would not be saying, let's sell apple here, because i think tim cook is so masterful with his team. but i do think technically, also, if you look at the 10 and 20-day moving average, it's broken some technical trends and so, i think that could put a ceiling in the short-term, kind of dove tailing with what tom's saying if we're bottoming out here that could continue to add weakness to the broad indexes because it's just such a big weighting. >> although it is interesting, tom, whether or not we're set up for not a departure of the f.a.n.g. environment but rotations within it. i mean, amazon up 9% in a tough tape today, at one point leading the s&p.

i wonder whether or not you think any selling can be contained to just moving around within the space >> yeah. i mean, i think that's going to make sense, carl as you know, many of the f.a.n.g.s are up triple digits year to date, so i'm sure if i was a holder and i had an outsize position, i would want to protect some of that anyway and maybe buy some of the laggards i think that's even true for tech broadly i do think the second half is the story of market expansion. people really looking for stories that can turn or valuations that are -- that they can live with, or sort of uncovered opportunities. so, i think there will be more stock discovery in the second half >> john, i think it's interesting, the areas of the market that you think may be a little bit rich here i'm looking specifically at chips and maybe some home builders can you talk about what you're seeing there >> absolutely. so, the semiconductor stocks were trading at just very retractable polls back in october. that had to do with the perception around going to a recession and also had to do

with concerns over the relationship with taiwan, so those were trading at single-digit key multiples a year ago today, if you want to buy the semis, you've got to pay a ten-year high valuation, so fundamentals are no doubt great, but the valuations are on line with those expectations, so any misses will be met with, i think, some challenges for investor when i look over at home builders, those, again, really got blasted. what's fascinating about home builders, carl, is they actually bottomed in june of last year when the ten-year -- when the 30-year hit 7% so they have been rallying for well over a year, been very strong performers, and again, when i look at those, i see very stretch valuations, so we were overweight home builders last year going in, and now we have exited all of those positions. and again, i would argue that investors should look at some of the forgotten areas like tom mentioned, because i think that, you know, when i look through the rubble, you're seeing a lot of dislocations, and you know,

small caps are one example of that another fun fact i'll share is the russell 2000 value was the best performing of all the styles and market indexes for the month of july, up over 7.5%, so we are seeing those small caps come to life. >> yeah. i mean, that -- bryn, that gets to the argument and the debate, which is going even now, about whether or not we are early or late cycle, and your view on that is going to color whether or not you believe small and mid caps are a worthy buy. >> it is such a big difference i mean, i can -- i just can't imagine we're just going to reaccelerate and whistle past the graveyard. we are in small cap value from 2020 to august of '21 because you do have such a heavy regional bank exposure but i still think that we are a consumer economy i get jobs are good. jobs are aplenty but carl, if you go look at

mortgages, go try to buy a new car, even with an 800 credit score, new or used car, you're going to pay 7%, 8%, so i don't imagine, in this type of environment, we're just going to start and reaccelerate i think we're kind of like gliding to slower growth, even though we don't see that in gdp. i still think that's my base case and i wouldn't be adding to small cap. i think it's a great trade, but as like a one to two-year opportunity, i would not be adding to small cap at this point. >> we were talking, bryn, with tom a moment ago about ackman's long bond short and i wonder -- the ideas that he put out there, higher defense costs, entitlement, deglobalization, demographics, i just wonder, does that make sense, even though the trade doesn't look so hot or didn't look so hot this morning? >> no. i mean, i agree with -- i actually applauded fitch for just saying what so many of us as citizens understand that our politicians on both sides are

spending like drunken sailors, so i just appreciated the note and say, raising the flag, hey, guys, let's take a chill here. but i think on that trade, though, that could be a widowmaker trade, because we saw in november of 2022, the 30-year was right where it was two days ago around 430 and then just a month later, we were down to 3.40%, and when you have an 18-year duration on that, and you're leveraged using options, that is a really aggressive trade, but even, you know, he's a great hedge fund investor, so he'll do fine regardless, but for regular investors, i would step to the side, buy some money markets or some six-month t-bills yielding 5.5%. >> yeah, tom, he did argue it was a hedge with multiple benefits, multiple facets. but i do wonder, long-term, what you thought -- what do you think the lesson will be about the downgrade a few days out, even as we have had some time for some to say it either didn't break news or schwarzman of

blackstone said this morning it sort of reflected what the numbers are telling us >> carl, i think there's two important things that could happen or two things one is, of course, this really gets everyone engaged and thinks about, you know, whether or not it's appropriate for the u.s. to be a aaa-rated entity given everything described the risk, i would say, for fitch is that the market ignores it and it actually diminishes the impact of their call, because they're making a call that the market doesn't think is relevant so, i do think there's a little bit of a risk being bold like that without a specific catalyst, and then picking a specific window to do it >> yeah. or making the change years after the catalyst, which is certainly what the white house argument was earlier in the week. we'll see what next week brings. tom, john, bryn, great to see you. have a great weekend let's get to our question of the day. we want to know, what is the

next catalyst for stocks next week's cpi, rising treasury yields, maybe it's jackson hole? head to cnbcclosingbell on x, formerly known as twitter, to vote let's get a check on some of the top stocks to watch. seema mody is here with that >> stocks may be making a turn but oil continues to power higher, now headed for its sixth straight gain, the longest streak in more than a year, and because of that, energy stocks are outperforming on the pioneer natural resources, names like marathon petroleum, among others, up by 5% for the week. and then there's one bright spot in the restaurant space today. shake shack we couping some of yesterday's losses following a disappointing outlook, but analysts at raymond james see opportunity, upgrading the stock to outperform today, you can see shares up about 5.6% at this hour carl >> seema, thank you so much. we are just getting started. coming up next, a rally

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s&p near some session lows the index is set to snap a win streak our next guest says rates remain the biggest obstacle to the rally from here. let's bring in jeff. great to see you again i do wonder whether or not rates

triggered anything for you this week >> yeah, look, i mean, we're in this zone where not only the rate of change but also the level starts to work against equities and what we call our yield impact model the good news is it's not disastrous the consolidation is anywhere from a month to three months, but i think we're going to visit this 4,300 level on the s&p and really just kind of take a pause from some of the gains that we saw this summer. >> 4,300 i mean, that will get some people's attention, although i wonder whether or how quickly the line comes out that this is a dip that's meant to be bought. >> it's a great question we have seen some of the sentiment, particularly in tech, some of the sentiment get a little frothy, so i think you have to cool that off a little bit, and usually, when that froth starts to settle down, it takes more for people to become

more comfortable buying things, so i don't worry too much about that i just think that there are enough pieces of the data that are out there that keep the bears invigorated and, you know, it's still a pretty crowded camp on the bearish side, even with the returns that we have had in the s&p so far this year >> one tidbit i ran across this afternoon was looking at weeks, calendar weeks, with a lower high, lower low, and lower close on the s&p one argument was that we had to go back to february. did that make sense to you >> yeah, that makes sense. i mean, that's -- it's been a pretty persistent -- not very volatile, which actually we look at it as being good. when you have momentum and low volatility, that's usually a sign that you have got kind of this perpetual motion machine in play, and we have had that, which is good news, and that's exactly why i think this is just a consolidation and a pause versus something that's more nefarious. >> i know some of the land mines that you have on your radar, at

least, are some of the banks, maybe regionals looking a tad vulnerable, and i know you're watching credit spreads in the bbb space, right >> yeah, those look good i mean, it's remarkable. i mean, i think it's funny, if you would have asked me a year ago with the fed and the aggressiveness of the fed and an inverted yield curve, where would we be on credit spreads, i would have said an 80% chance they would have been above say 300 and almost 100% chance they would be above 200 basis points, and they're just not the availability of credit still remains a really important attribute of this market it's something that the bears just haven't been able to really adjust to, this entire rally, and i think until or unless we see a meaningful change in that liquidity dynamic that the market is going to be in a relatively steady uptrend, and i think that's good news, not bad. the banks do bother me there's no doubt i think it's going to be a regulatory issue, but the banks were very oversold we were early on that call, and

i don't look at it as if we got it right because we were too early on it. we thought the banks would rally and go back into resistance and now they're there, and theyithey haven't changed their stripes in our view they're under these big-top formations and i think this overbought tradition in the down trend is a better place to be a seller of the banks than a buyer. they are cheap, but i think there are other things that are going to plague those as we go into the future, probably for the next couple years, frankly >> one of the tables that got circulated a lot this week came out of b of a, looking at years in which you're up ten-plus at the end of july. i think there's a few dozen examples, and almost every time you end the year higher, maybe not with big further gains, but the years like '87 start of take the shine off that analog. i wonder how you react to some of those historical trends and data >> it's pretty consistent with the things that we've seen we went back and looked, and i'm not a big fan of the 20% rule,

call the new bull market or new bear market, but when you go back and look at that, 20% off the low after you have had a bear market, which we did, i think, this was in may now, it was pretty convincing that, you know, you're better off saying that we're in a bull phase than still trying to fight the good fight as a bear. most of that evidence is consistent the breadth data that we look at is consistent with the new bull phase. it's not outstanding, but it is good enough. and i think it's, you know, better news for the remainder of 2023 than not. >> so, if we do get the consolidation you're looking for short-term, do you think q4 begins to feel like a chase? >> i think there's some real risk to that we thought that was going to be the case last year in the fourth quarter, so that played out very, very well, but i think people will maybe get a little bit more emboldened on the bear side i think some of the data is probably troughing, so you're going to see some inflation prints that are scary, but they

certainly aren't going to look as good as they have in the last six months in our view, and i think that's going to give a we bears a little bit of muscle and flex here, and then i think the market is just going to come back in and head to new highs at the end of the year. >> wow >> that becomes a fomo type of environment, and you get the seasonality, and if we get anything around the fed, you know, actually pausing for an extended duration, i think it's off to the races >> q4 could be interesting, jeff we'll talk more times. good to see you. have a great weekend, jeff degraph. coming up next, our next guest sees big upside in this week's best-performing sector. and then later, don't miss the cnbc special tonight, "taking stock," hosted by our own mike santoli and josh brown. they're going break down this week's market action and all the biggest stories impacting your money. it's coming up at 6:00 p.m. > t mnttonight. >>inheeaime, "closing bell" will be right back verizon small business days are coming.

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welcome back energy, the best performing sector this week, and our next guest sees big opportunity in the oil patch. let's bring in 314 research warren pais. six weeks up on wti and awfully close to $83 today what do you see coming >> yeah, thanks for having me, carl you know, we -- we have an oil model that basically looks at the crude oil market from a number of different perspectives, and that model flipped bullish early july, and it makes sense to me as a long-time oil watcher. i think we came into this year, and everybody had set themselves up for the recession trade, and this includes oil speculators, so we saw hedge funds and other speculators in the oil market had layered on short positions, and basically, set themselves up for this recession trade to haven't come to past saudis and the rest of opec have gotten their act together, and i

think their goal is to run the shorts out of the market, and i think by the time the saga is over, we end up touching a hundred dollars a barrel on oil and ultimately this is going to be a big driver for the energy sector in the near term. >> wow we did get a lot of inputs today. opec, oxy, conoco, and i think it was pioneer that said 80 to $100 going into year-end sounds like you agree. >> i would never listen to an upstream ceo on their projection i would much rather listen to the downstream guys, but in this case, i do agree with sheffield in this case yeah i think we get triple-digit oil this year. >> as for the markets, it doesn't sound like you have strong feelings either way on equities at large, although you're not averse to the idea that some of these mega cap tech results could give us a short-term pop >> yeah. i mean, one of the things we say at 3fourteen research is we build conviction on fundamental but manage risk on price

to be honest, the market is overvalued here. it's hard for me to keep a real strong conviction in this market if you think about this as a market bottom and what we're projecting for earnings, even with the earnings projections that the analysts have for 2024, it's a really sub-par rebound in earnings off what would be an equity bottom. fundamentally, i'm not a big fan, but we do have to acknowledge the price action i think there's a huge chase going on, and jeff degraaf just mentioned that i think there's a rotation and all the laggards, everyone that came into this year expecting recession, they're now buying different pockets of the market, trying to catch up, so i think that's the game. i think that's most likely outcome for us for the next few months until we get some kind of softening in the economic data or something in the rates market that scares the bulls off. but you really have to be careful about where you play those lagging areas, like you could play small caps. you could play energy. you could go other pockets and i think it's really important that we don't get over our skis with risk at this point

in the cycle >> right speaking of rates scaring people off, i think bonds are your biggest underweight since early june lot of discussion this week about the selloff and whether or not that was due to fitch or the idea of more issuance. you got any thoughts on that >> yeah, absolutely. bonds are, to me, the only path to a positive return for bonds from here is a recession so, we don't see a recession imminent, and that was reflected in the jobs report today and so, to me, bonds are overvalued we're talking about the ten-year, probably by about 80 basis points you can look at that versus nominal gdp, overvalued. look at it on a term premium basis, overvalued. if you think the fed has paused here, which i think it's most likely the fed has paused, usually the ten-year is significantly above the fed funds rate, and now we're significantly below the feds fund right at this pause i don't think there's a lot of upside for bonds, and then you look at what treasury has, i

think the real impetus for the selloff is tons of issuance, trillion dollar of issuance estimated for q3 who's going to buy that? the fed's not buying it. banks are definitely not in a position to buy it foreigners have been stepping away from the bond market, so ultimately, you're talking about levered hedge funds and households that have to do that buying and those are priced into the buyer, so they need higher yields thanks that's where i think we're going. >> as for the overall market, it doesn't sound like you feel like an all-time high is inevitable in the next 6 to 12 months >> absolutely not inevitable the momentum and the odds favor we're going to continue moving higher, and it really comes down, in my view, of where that recession lands if you look at our projections, it's mid-2024 we've already had that kind of multiple reset last year, and so i don't think you get another just multiple contraction. i think the next move is going to be about earnings and the economy, and so that's where our focus has really been, and so i think it's really kind of a coin

flip whether we get there before that recession, but i think you need to be looking -- you need to be preparing yourself for the end of the cycle there's this kind of theory that's going on out there right now that i would push back against that we're not going to land, that the fed is not effective anymore, and i just don't see evidence for that. i think the fiscal policy is supporting the economy right now. the massive pro cyclical deficit is supporting the economy, but i'm seeing evidence, if you look at commercial industrial loans, they're starting to roll over. if you look at housing starts, you know, the idea that housing bottomed, i don't see that housing starts are still off 40,000 single family homes a month, so i see the fed's rate hike cycle working through the economy, and ultimately, i think that's what we need to keep our eye on here. >> it would be classic if some of these strategists started pulling back their recession calls only to have one sneak up and hit them in the summer warren, we'll talk about that in the weeks and months to come good to see you. thank you. warren pies.

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well, it's happened slowly, but the bulls have definitely had the ball taken away from them this afternoon.

s&p, down almost 60 points off the session high you got the ten-year back to 4.04% and the vicks back above 17 let's get back to seema mody >> we're watching the big move in travel. booking holdings hitting that all-time high following comments from ceo glenn fogle who told cnbc he is not seeing signs of a consumer trading down. the online trading operator posting strong growth in asia. barclay's new price on the stock, $3,740 a share. let's pivot our attention to one of the biggest losers of the day, fortinet, down 24%. the cybersecurity company disclosing that customers are delaying some purchases due to economic uncertainty from a technical basis, this stock is also getting attention, breaking below its 200-day moving average other cybersecurity names we should appoipoint out like paloo

trading lower as well. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked you, what's the next catalyst for stocks? next week's cpi, rising treasury yields or maybe jackson hole go to cnbcclosingbell on x, although i still call it twitter. from big cities, to small towns, and on main streets across the us, you'll find pnc bank.

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if you experience irregular heartbeat, heart racing, chest pain, shortness of breath, fatigue, or light-headedness, you should talk to your doctor. afib increases the risk of stroke about 5 times i want my experience to help others understand the symptoms of atrial fibrillation. when it comes to your health, this is no time to wait. let's get the results of our question of the day. we asked you, what's the next catalyst for stocks? next week's cpi, rising treasury yields or jackson hole the majority of you saying that cpi print, which we're going to get on thursday and of course

ppi on friday. coming up next, the tale of two tech stocks, apple and amazon moving in opposite directions we're going to break down the street's reaction to those earnings in a moment that and much more when we take u si t mket zone we never just see the numbers, we see the people. my dad started trek in a red barn in waterloo, wisconsin. and now it spans the globe. you wanna take what was given to you and you wanna build it. and you wanna pass it along.

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52-week high on the year mike, why the fade >> i don't know if there's a particular headline reason for the fade except we came into this week to greet is seasonal little air pocket pullback coming right on time so, i think that's the backdrop. the loss of momentum in a previously bulletproof stock like apple doesn't help, and i also think this is the culmination of the responses to earnings that we have had for three weeks. three weeks ago, right before earnings season, the s&p 500 traded just under 4,500. that's basically where we are now. a ton of back and forth in between. you have 80% of all companies exceeding forecasts. the market says, yeah, we knew that that's why we were up 20% heading into it. you have jpmorgan and other banks getting on the soft landing scenario market says, where have you been so, i feel as if there wasn't really a capacity to capitalize on incremental good news because of how the market had come in to this week. >> i wonder if you were

listening to degraaf a moment ago, top 4,300 and whether or not that piqued your interest. >> wouldn't be out of bounds at all. that would be a slightly deeper pullback than what i would call really the textbook almost immaculate pullback, which would be down a 1% from here, 4,430-ish. the celebration of disinflation is place we would go back and visit that. the 50-day average is 4,400. then, you know, that may be some kind of support. the bigger picture is, even down to 4,300, you're still kind of in an uptrend. you just have to probably chop around a little bit more, and rationalize things people complaining about valuations and people complaining about sentiment, it's all legitimate and that's the crucible where that stuff gets sorted out in a new trading range or pullback mode >> maybe some payback a bit for july's performance apple shares, meantime, as mike said, are down after posting a third consecutive quarter of

declining revenue. st steve kovach, the analysts have been all over the map on this. we see a couple of calls saying the time period between the june report and the phone cycle beginning tends to be good >> yeah. that's right but look, today, the reaction's loud and clear we're seeing apple down 4.5%, and the reason investors wanted to see apple return to topline growth in the current quarter, but apple warning about a fourth quarter in a row of declining sales. if you're keeping score, that means apple's full fiscal year will be a down year. now, it's a tough environment for hardware demand, even as apple sees growth accelerating again for services let's talk about what the analysts are saying. for example, ubs, this morning, saying, some of the growth improvement apple predicted for iphone and services will come from better foreign exchange, not necessarily new iphone demand but goldman analysts, a little more bullish, especially on the services front, pointing to that install base of 2 billion

devices, and a return of advertising and sales in the papa john store. n app store this report putting pressure on apple to wow everyone with the next line of iphones, expected next month b of a analysts pointing out this morning the strong commentary about the iphone guidance, though, is likely due to new iphones and not necessarily a change in the demand picture >> steve, the bull case, i think, dan ives probably is the tip of the spear on that one >> oh, definitely. >> wedbush going to $230, arguing that it's been years since people have upgraded, but you heard bryn talkington a moment ago saying, the phones are so good, maybe you don't need an upgrade, even after four years. >> that's been the story with apple for so long, is these life span of an apple device used to be every year, every other year, you'd upgrade. you can hang on to them for three, four, five years. what i'm really interested to look at in this next iphone cycle, though, is whether or not they're able to raise prices in

this kind of environment there have been some reports about that potentially happening on the pro line. we know people are willing to pony up for those. look, if demand is weak and sales on a unit basis are relatively flat, apple's going to have to find a way to increase that revenue if the services can't make up, if mac and ipad can't make up for it, it's got to be about the iphone, so it's going to be really interesting to see, carl, what this iphone event looks like in a couple weeks here. >> yeah. as you can see, looking to close at the lows of the day, steve. thanks meantime, amazon shares surging after the company's blowout quarter, closing in on their best day since november. deirdre bosa has been watching what the analysts are saying i hear a lot about the new era of jassy-led growth. >> that's one of them. let me give you a sampling of some of the other headlines from walmart. mizuho, pay dirt, wolf research, one for the ages evercore, primed for acceleration my personal favorite from

bernstein, in amazon we trust. so, that about sums it up in one, wall street is very bullish. but as warren buffett once said, be fearful when others are greedy i will highlight one metric that could be seen as potentially bearish. that is online stores revenue. that missed expectations by more than $4 billion, and it grew 5%, yes, that is coming off an obviously gigantic base, but just positing here, could it be a signal that amazon's dominance in e-commerce, perhaps getting chipped away at by the likes of temu and others that are pushing very aggressively into the u.s. e-commerce market. >> dee, one thing we talked about earlier this morning was having lived through the pain of the cost cuts, now getting reflected in better than expected margins, right? >> absolutely. this is the story here amazon spent so much, more than any of the other megacaps, during the pandemic to essentially double its logistics footprint. it's reaping the rewards, i.e.,

the efficiencies the market's favorite word, carl >> amazon's going to end up being the best s&p'er today if things don't change in the next five minutes d deirdre bosa on amazon then there's draftkings. contessa has details on that >> draftkings ceo jason robins doubled down this morning, how much efficiency the sportsbook is achieving through better product offerings. it's causing draftkings less to acquire customers, costs less to keep them and those customers are more engaged and spending more money on draftkings, plus they're seeing improvement in keeping customers from the seasons change from, say, nba to baseball robbins said 50% of the customers they have are crossing over between sports betting and i-gaming that's really impressive online casino games are only legal in a handful of states this is a very lucrative segment of the business.

when draftkings claims the crown of i-gaming leader, it is worth taking note here the stock retreated somewhat from its highs today but still on track to close up almost 6% on the day, and of course, just on fire year-to-date >> as we get into nfl season, literally, the super bowl of their business, contessa, going to be fun to watch let's get back to santoli and his last word. >> obviously, i do think a lot of things were lined up coming into this week, as i mentioned, to have a i believe will of turbulence here. you've seen the volatility click back above 17. everything is appoinpointing in direction of taking back some of that calm and a change of character this month that we saw in june and july so, that takes you back to late may. jeff degraaf, you mentioned talking about maybe s&p pulls back to 4,300. that's early june. so, really, a test of this last phase this summer rally is might be what we have under way. of course, you know, i was

saying earlier today, mid-june, we had one of these wobbles as well it was down all of 3%. we're down about that much from the highs right now. so, this is aside from it being an intraday reversal on a summer friday, i don't think the market is necessarily showing its hand, except for the break in momentum and the fact that it points out how much air has kind of built up underneath the mega cap stocks as well as just the market cap weighted s&p. >> and then meantime, we mentioned at the top of the hour, mike, some of the recessionary calls that have been pulled. this afternoon, late, it was jpmorgan saying -- i think the title of their report is, "the end is not near," and i guess that counts both ways. if you were counting on the more dovish fed, maybe this adds cloudiness to that >> it does rising bond yields, they're coming in off the highs of yesterday pretty dramatically after we got a relatively, i guess, mixed jobs report, pretty benign in general but not something too concerning even just that volatility in the

yields of that magnitude over a couple of days isn't always that comfortable. there's no doubt that we have to absorb the higher for longer fed posture. however we're going to define that i still think the market can live with whatever pace the fed is on. we're going here, i don't know, 10 or 12 weeks between fed meetings because there isn't one in august. so, a quarter point every now and then shouldn't be the big deal, but you know, it just brings up that idea, for those who think that something has to break when the fed is this active for this long, this is not going to disabuse them of that idea. >> mike, look forward to seeing you and josh brown tonight, 6:00 p.m. eastern time, although i still think mike and josh sounds like a morning zoo djs. >> that's kind of the template we'll see what we can do >> good. we'll see you at 6:00. nice summer programming for the next few fridays in the meantime, down is going to finish down about 160 4,477 on the s&p

next week, extremely busy. cpi, thursday. ppi, friday. we'll get some manheim used cars on monday, and then we'll wrap up some of the earnings of the june quarter with paramount, disney, data dogs, lilly let's get into "overtime" with morgan brennan and jon fortt well, things took a turn, literally, right around 1:00 p.m we got your scorecard on wall street with the s&p meeting lows of the week. winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell: overtime," i'm jon fortt with morgan brennan ahead on today's show, it was the busiest week of the earnings season, but the big moves in the treasury market stole the show we'll discuss if bonds are going to continue to drive the narrative for this market. plus, two ceos join us to break down their results ahead of cloudflare. the stock is rocketing higher today. and the ceo of mercado