be one to watch. so many conversations about a.i. that's a name that's more than doubled. we'll see if it can continue when we talk about the monetizization. >> trying to see if i can get her to say it's me, mario. >> totally didn't pick up what you're putting down. that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now. right now, a late day sell-off on wall street sending stocks to lows of the week s&p snapping three-day losing streaks. what it could mean as we head deeper to earnings season. plus, the oil etf hitting its highest level in four years. outpacing the broader market bus is there more fuel left in this rally? the chart master is on the case. our chart of the week, a group that had a lot of downs, a lot of ups why these moves caught our traders' eyes.

on the desk tonight, bonawyn eison, courtney garcia, guy adami and steve grasso we start off with stocksslidin into the weekend, dropping sharply midday the sell-off seemed to be sparked by apple the world's biggest company closing the day down 5%, its biggest loss since last september for a week s&p 500 and nasdaq both more than 2%. each indices posted their worst weekly performances since march. the vix rocketed higher closing above 17 for the first time since may. is this a case of as goes apple so goes the market what can we expect courtney, what do you think? >> i think when it comes to am you saw apple traded lower around 2:00 and so did the marks. when you look at the s&p 500, apple is the largest holding what's happening today is apple was not doing well amazon actually was doing

fantastic but apple is more than twice the weighting of amazon, so that's why the markets are going to take the lead there not the mention that fact that berkshire hathaway also owns apple. the markets are really overexposed to this. that's what you're seeing it trade on i was cautioning advisers, make sure you know what you own apple is such a large holding. markets are going to trade lower on that news >> yeah, i tend to agree we spoke about the concentration of these big five games and amazon while it's half the weighting had twice the move to the upside you expect that to find more equilibrium there. just look at the rate volatility that we have had from 4 to 4.25 back to around 4 any time you're seeing those type of oscillations in the market, it's just a matter of time before you start to see them translate into equity moves

or implied equity moves, which is why we saw the move in the vix. >> were you surprised, guy, by this move in apple here? >> well, it's going to sound somewhat -- i don't know -- no, i wasn't surprised by it i'm surprised it's not lower given the run that we have had it's three quarters in a row they tell you next quarter is not going to be particularly good it's been trading single digits. afforded a huge valuation. maybe deservedly so. it's slowing that's not an indictment, just a fact i thought it would have been worse. let's break it down. 179ish was the all-time high from december 2021 the real level you got to start of flag is 161, which would be a 50% retracement of the all-time high, a week ago, steve's level at 2 hundredish and a few months

ago saw the 124 low. that makes sense to bonawyn and courtney's point, apple is in -- apple is one of the top 15 holdings. so it's great on the way up. it ain't great on the way down. >> if guidance holds for the current quarter that apple gave last night, it would be the longest streak of revenue declines in two decades. for a stock like that, grasso, do you want to pay 30 times forward? >> no, but, you know, to give you the bullish part of this -- because guy laid out the levels pretty well. the 50-day moving average is 187. we already blew through that 100-day is 176 i think guy's right, you could have this thing retrace pretty far down, maybe even to the 150 level, because everyone's looking for september. let's look at the new products let's look at what it is going into christmas and how that ramp

starts for the next iphone the glimmer of hope for the stock -- or i should say the silver lining is services. that's growth. that's where growth should be. you want to see -- in a perfect world you want to see the stock migrate from a hard ware company to a services company, and they have been doing that. >> does it retrace -- >> unfortunately. >> sorry go ahead. >> go ahead, i'm so i remember you finish. >> does it retrace -- i guess a question for you or guy, but since i'm talking to you now, steve, does it retrace independent of what the broader markets do >> it is the broader markets, as courtney bonawyn and guy said. the waiting is significant, and guy brought up the interesting point of how many etfs that apple takes the place in so it triggers guying and selling. so if it does retrace -- if apple retraces it drags the market down lower.

but i will tell you that with all the things the market has been fed this week, the performance has actually been pretty good, in my opinion >> yeah, and the performance of amazon may look everyone better. that 8% pop in today's session, this is in spite of rates that have gone above 4% what we thought would be crypt nite to these high many stocks like amazon still didn't deter amazon from gaining. >> yeah, and i think that's where what you're seeing with investors is they're assuming that rates are probably going to start to come down here at some point in time. we saw the pike this week with what's happening with the u.s. government but i think you're going to see rates stabilize if not come down, and that's why you're seeing the risk appetite is increasing here. amazon, pure and simple, they had good numbers, which is definitely going to help the case. >> was it overall good price action how do you assess the markets given all that we've gone through this week, bonawyn

>> let me try to be even keel here you know i have a slightly bearish spin i think that given what we got from fitch, i think that's kind of being swept under the rug they came out and elaborated and said, listen, this isn't about economic soft landing, which i think tends to be the focal point of investors right now this is about, is governance in place which allows the u.s., the prime credit rating, to operate as it has been the next three to five years i think that's worth mentioning. you look at that, i mention the rate volatility and vix. you are starting to see undercurrents of volatility. to me that's the first trickle you start to see before you see more exacerbated market moves. earnings have been quite positive, but expectations have been ratcheted down significantly. you see amazon, i would argue out of the big five or seven names that was the name people thought was most susceptible to a downturn and that's why it's

priced the way it was. anything negative news, anything that's moderate positive you see it go higher a lot of things around the macroeconomic situation that i think have come out positive now, i think once we get through this earnings season, it starts to be another focus on the macroeconomics situation and while it seems that we have kind of come to a goldilocks event, if the fed pivots -- i think they're implying an 85% chance they don't do anything. what happens if the fed comes out hawkish in november? i think we may be in for a not is hawkish back half of the year. >> the jobs report today was in the eye of the beholder. certainly enough information in terms of wage growth, wages being solid that could factor into the argument for the fed to be hawkish here. >> you see what you want to see. depending on your dogma, your

stance you could view this as bullish or bearish i think bonawyn hit the nail on the head -- this is the federal reserve that i think sees what's going on we're going to talk about energy in a second so i don't want to sort of skip to that, but inflationary inputs are on the way back up, and i'm one of these people that think inflation is going to start to reaccelerate in the back half of this year, why we're on the precipice of, which makes this fed's job more difficult price action, i guess you could say it was okay, but reversals are different. in term of amazon, which basically held everything up in terms of just proportionally, stock traded three times the normal volume. as we pointed out last night, traded up to a level we broke down from last august, 141ish. so just something to keep into consideration. >> meantime, heading into next week we've got a will the of earns on deck. maybe with one we'll focus on tonight is business any. that's going to be a big one

steve grasso, how long we set up for that >> this trade has been so tele telegraphed. traffic has been lackluster to say the least. they have had network issues i'm not currently long the name. i feel like everyone had the chance to play that bottom i was one of them, and it didn't work out parks are not coming back any time soon. we're at the pandemic -- at or around the pandemic low. this stock is priced for another pandemic i can't see a worse scenario or setup in the stock price where it should be bouncing and it never seems to bounce. so maybe -- maybe expectations are so low that they're good, but i'm not in the name right now, so that's my indication. >> tom sax and kevin mayer as consultants back in. do you think this could pave the way for decent news or clearing of the decks in terms of the bad? >> yeah. yeah, and i think this is --

when it comes to disney we're going to have to really see how things play out, but especially, too, they're going to have to see what happens with streaming. espn, i think, has been a big hot spot for them. if they can't further monetize that, that can help them out earnings help them, that's great. but we're going to have to see how they report. meantime, let's get to oil seem like it's on the mend up 13% in the last month, touching a level it has not seen since 2019 but can the sector pump higher let's bring in the chart master, carter braxton worth of worth charting what's your take here? >> pump higher, i'm in this camp let's look at charts and figure it out together. first let's look at crude. we know we have the ukraine invasion crude prints 130 a barrel. remarkably, wall street puts out price targets as high as 250 it's a classic example of go the other way.

we drop 50% and two months ago we're down at 65 wall street started saying recession. we're going to 40. that level we dropped to, look how precise those lows are over and over. it ricochetted, moved above the downtrend line, and i have an airrrow there for a reason, i think it's got room to run two charts coming up first is a ratio dhart this is xle divided by s.p.y what it depicts is a relative strength line, and that line is turning, to my eye i think we have more relative outperformance to come in terms of xle itself, final chart, well, that's pretty straight forward uptrend it's bounced out of that line to the penny over and over, and more importantly it's just about to move above the downtrend line

converging trend lines, i think we move higher. >> what's the next level you see in wti, carter >> we're sort of mid 80s why can't we get into the high 80s? at some point you'll be stretched and need to check back but note this -- crude adjust for infliation is the same leve it was 25, 30 years ago. >> carter, thanks. see you on "options action." guy, you like these oil stocks here >> yeah, you know that i do. as i've mentioned in my mojo, two of the os are energy stocks. i'm with carter on this. oah made a multiyear high today. these things have a stealth rally we're starting to talk about correctly. just better run companies. oil can go side wways in this environment. we're not even talk about potential weather in the back half of this year that's

unfortunately going to help refiners like valero when we start getting into hurricane season back half of this year, energy's going to surprise to the upside. >> there's potential weather and a potential big stimulus out of china, which we haven't seen not sure if oil has captured that it has captured, steve, the notion of a soft landing or no recession view that wall street increasingly adopted >> definitely. this year for me is i think that crude, to carter's point, could probably rally to $200 that's a big move. equities, i think we've seen the biggest move we will see in those names. in the oah, slumberger and haliburton outsizes percentage of that. we haven't really heard spectacular fundamentals out of chevron or exxon mobil, so i'm more bullish on the actual

commodity than i am on the stocks this year. >> all right, coming up, the uaw laid out its demands for the big three lawmakers as the two sides try to hammer out a labor contract what the two sides are asking for and what it could mean for the manufacturer. later, consumer health check. what the markets are expecting from disney,al lre rphaun and more back after this. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless.

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welcome back to "fast money. the uaw ramping up demands from auto makers pressing for a 40% pay increase ahead of the contract negotiation deadline. meeting resistance from the big three. let's get to phil lebeau phil >> reporter: that's a starting point, but what a starting point. you mentioned a 40% increase in pay. 20% signing bonus when the contract would be ratified and the uaw wants a 5% raise per year over the life of the contract they would also like the members to work 32 hours instead of 40 hour a week. make the adjustment on the hours comes out to a 46% pay increase.

in justifying the request or demand for a 40% increase, the u a aw said the ceos saw their pay rise 40% on average. we believe uaw members deserve the same, if not more. as you can imagine, the big three don't exactly agree to this when i talked to a few people they said, this is nuts. by the way, if this is a strike, this is what it would cost, an estimate of what it would cost the big three per week up to $70 million for general motors that comes to us from bank of america. as you take a look at shares keep in mind, the contract goes through periods like this where you'll see a big demand from the union and pushback from the auto makers we know they're not going to see a 40% raise. but compared to where i've seen

them start in the past, this is way up there >> they get a 20% signing bonus, which is a one-time payment, and then the 20% increase is the recurring part of the picture. >> correct. >> it's really not a 40% increase -- >> it's not 40% overall, but that's how you get to the 40%. >> right got it phil, thank you. >> and just so you know, me his sark real quick, there are signing bonuses in the past, but they're not 20%. they're usually $10,000, $11,000, $12,000. >> quite a starting point. phil, thank you. guy adami, even if they meet in the middle right off the bat, it's still a big increase. >> exactly, and it speaks to -- we can talk about the individual stocks it's not necessarily about that, i don't think. it's more about the problem -- think about this -- how inflationary is that this is sort of anecdotal, but we've seen this across a swath of industries and different

unions, and it speaks to this sticky wage growth that the fed is clearly trying to combat. they're swimming uphill which is one of the reasons they're as hawkish as they are, one of the reasons i think people are underestimating inflation. >> teamsters, auto makers, write writers, actors. it goes on and on. >> wage growth ten points higher this just speaks to that again, i think we are kind of putting the cart before the horse in terms of saying definitively the fed is done with this inflation fight. that said, if i have to pick one of the names that i think this boasts positively well for, it's tesla, because they still have that pricing pressure. that's the leverage they have been using so until they're able to kind of deal with this, i think tesla still kind of ends up winning in

the short innings. coming up, it is friday, so you know we've got a chart of the week for you the move in this group over the last five days seems a bit surprising given how the rest of the market played out. what it means and how you should play it next you're watching "fast money" from the nasdaq market site live in times square. we'll be back if two now is the time to partner with our experts. get started today with verizon business. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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welcome back to "fast money" and our chart of the week. we usually pick a stock or sector that had a big move during the week, but today we're looking at a group that's basically been flat since last friday it is the home builders, up more than half a percentage, but down less than half a percent since monday the action intrigued us,

especially given how much higher rates have been. medical r mortgage rates, by the way, also went to a record, 7.2% on the 30-year fixed. guys, you flagged this one. >> which is why i think the sector's so confused typically you see price action like this at bottoms or tops you saw outside moves all week long. we have been bullish collectively on home builders, but weeks like this when you see that action has to give you pause. i don't want to make a huge deal out of it, but next week is going to tell you where the next six months go. >> funny because i wasn't on the call in the afternoon because i was on the halftime reporting but i would have thought you said this shows good price action because the stocks held their own despite the rises and rates that we saw. >> fair. and you can make that argument

i'm going to jump in again i'll say this -- we saw at least five times this week -- historically that is a bit of a bottom on the downside and a bit of a top on the upside something to watch next week. >> quickly, do you like home builders >> i absolutely do i think the higher rates go, we'd think that's a bad thing, but people who own hair home aren't going sell. it's making the demand situation worse the higher rates go. since 2012 there's been 5 million more homes created than houses sold. all right, time for a final trade on this friday let's go around the horn steve grasso. >> amd, extremely volatile i think the back half of the year is going to be incredible. i'm long once again.

>> guy adami >> all wishing courtney and her family the best as she goes on maternity leave? >> yes, courtney. >> see new december. i leave nor maternity leave. in the meantime, cater pillar is my final trade i think it's going to continue to do well. >> bonawyn >> best to courtney and her family i think eem has room to run. a merging markets are where you want to be. >> good tlouk courtney "options action" up next [phone: go straight.] but, to navigate the complexities of modern work... [phone: turn left.] ...you need more than technology. you need cdw. [phone: you have arrived.] so we'll implement cloud based microsoft modern work solutions like microsoft 365, teams and azure, so your teams can collaborate with zero trust security anywhere. [phone: destination ahead.] microsoft makes modern work possible. cdw makes it powerful.

right now on "o.a.", the consumer on deck after weeks of back-to-back gains, the etf that tracks consumer discretionary stocks. disney, ralph lauren, capri and more rate and bond yields all over the map. what's an options trader to do we'll hedge that. and later, time to bail on baba and leap for india. amazing call with amazon and what traders should be doing wi