perspective and 119 and 118 area as a stop loss >> shares of valero up 2.25% right now. a quick check of the markets and the dow is trading at session highs and the s&p is the same and up almost a quarter of a percent and the russell the only one on the red and that will do it for us. "the exchange" with kelly evans starts right now thank you very much, frank, and welcome to the exchange. i'm kelly evans, and ahead this hour from rate hikes to cuts by next year. the new york fed's john williams is floating that prospect in a new interview. we'll break down why it might be needed, how much is already priced in and what that could mean for inflation and the markets. former fed governor and national council director larry lindsay will join us momentarily with his thoughts and to react. plus, it's the labor market actually smaller than it appeared and is the adp survey capturing that better than the

data right now barclays says yes, the economist joins us to make the case. >> we are at historic lows and housing inventory, why that's pushing home prices down and rents down and how that will impact inflation reits and households we'll get to that. first, let's get a check on the markets. there is differentiation and the outperformance is coming in the blue chip dow jones industrial average. it's been an underperformer with the broader s&p and the nasdaq composite, today's trade has a lot of those kind of value-oriented type stocks one in the blue chip index and the dow is up 250 points and 1% higher and four companies are making the bulk of those gains and it's united health and amgen and also mcdonald's and boeing so if you take a look at some of those stocks and that's what's powering the dow and up about 30

points and right near session highs and we were up 32 points and up about 13 at the low and a positive day two-thirds of 1% gain so far the nasdaq composite is an underperformer and reversion playing out and for the composite 13,945 and up 0.25%. one reason why is because the second worst performing sector in the s&p 500 over the last week has been technology it's the biggest weighting in the s&p. apple, among the own mega-cap tech names following on the downside momentum tied to its earnings report last week, down 2% right now alphabet, amazon and nvidia bucking the trend more last week and to the upside so far, notable 2.5% for alphabet and the stock of the day, one of the worst performers in the broader s&p 500 has been and still is tyson foods which is down 6% and by the way, that's near the best levels of the day.

it's for its earnings report and the meat processor comes out with earnings and revenues that both are shy of expect eggs and the shutting down more chicken processing plants and they are facing headwinds on beef, pork and chicken and it is not selling well with some investors and tyson is off, and we'll see how tyson foods shakes out i'll send things back over to you. >> dom, thank you. dom chu. now that it's widely expected that fed is done with rate hikes be the next key question is when will they pivot. new york fed president john williams says they may start cutting rates next year if inflation keeps coming down, warning if they don't, real rates will keep rising and that's a problem joining me is larry lindsay, president and ceo of the lindsay group and president of the economic council under george w. bush and along with cnbc economics reporter steve

liesman. welcome to you both. i feel like you're not the guy who would be rooting for rate cuts at this point, but you know about real rates and how restrictive we're getting up to 2009 levels here >> i certainly don't think we'll be cutting this year and they're more likely to increase this year, and if he's correct like he says is if inflation comes down next year the fed will cut. i'm not as optimistic as he is about inflation coming down and obviously, if it does they will cut rates. >> what do you think about inflation coming down. we're about to get the cpi report later this week and if we back up from what you're talking about and say the fed funds rate is -- i'll just round to 5.5, and the inflation rate has to be 3.5 and do you think that's where we will be this time next

year >> i think the answer is we will see, but the most important thing that's happening in the economy is the solid wage increases, they are going to continue the earlier story mentioned that they're probably going to become more widespread. we now have sort of the standard 5% or higher contract settlement usually that's front loaded which means you're going to have more pressures in the short run. the other thing that i think is important is that no matter what the fed does, the long end of the curve is going to continue to rise in rates by the end of 2024, i would imagine the inversion will be over, maybe well before then, and we're going to see the longer rates up in the 5% area

and that means that money be hard to come by and all money will be more expensive >> that's obviously the argument that he thinks the 30-year is going to 5.5%. there's this splat bit between people that that will normalize like they did a couple of decades ago and some that think we could go back to more like a 2010. >> yeah. there's an idea out there that the fed will be not going back to zero. i think there are people that would applaud the fed going back to zero, and i think there's an idea that the curve is going to uninvert -- what is the right way? revert someone give me thor e verb, an actually go back to the long end that will lie in any event, but i just want to be clear about what williams is saying because the fed looks at things in a different way, and i think larry knows it they look at real rates.

what if i told you that the plan cuts its nominal rate and there's a way to measure it that real rates actually increase what i'm showing you there now is if you think that based on their projection for pce next year versus the projection for the nominal rate this year or next year, it goes down by 0.3 while they cut 100 basis points. notice 2.4% this year, 2.1 next year and that is relative to what they believe the long run rate should be >> this is the real question and people think what is the kind of normal -- they think it should only behalf a percent. >> a half a point above the inflation rate >> we are way above that right now. they are restrictive in their mind, okay larry may have a right to use there, but let me just point out that if you use their headline pce number, um sore their core

pce number they get more relative to the next year. >> it's wrop of those things that i always wond, you can feel fool some of the people some of the sometimes and that's cudding and in theed's mind, you have to have that kfrgd. that's one of the reasons why you all cut and the labor market was used the way it is, then i think that in fact, inflation numbers are likely to go up. >> in other words, larry, you would take cuts off the table and not philosophically, but just practically you don't think the inflation is coming down that much next year? >> that's correct, and i think we're going to see a little more upward pressure. we've already seen a turn in commodity prices, oil, a small part of the total inflation and it works through the system and

again and labor, labor, labor. there is no real softness as far as wage negotiations go. the unemployment report is the unemployment report that isn't getting a lot of mention is that we are now above where we were in 2019 in terms of participation by individuals, and not that there's anything wrong with people my age, but that's where the growth in effective labor supply has to be and we are fully employed now. >> there's a lot of interesting stuff that will happen can you write august 23rd in your calendar? >> it may be the most important employment report that is not in anybody's calendar right there that's when the government will announce the benchmark revisions for the year ending in march 1, okay and with that, it's potentially going to show if there are maybe fewer jobs out there now write down january

january is going to tell us how many more people are or are not in existence in the united states okay the last two years, a million people showed up each january and not sure where they were hanging out that showed up to be counted and what is going on right now, and i can say from some experience on this, kelly, the federal reserve is piloting the u.s. economy in a very thick fog when it comes to jobs. i have piloted a boat, it is very difficult to do you find yourself off course you think you're a mile from the. y rock, and you may be a couple of yards from the rock >> let me add to the fog speaking of gauging the labor market one of the big questions out there is whether friday's jobs report which came in at 147,000 jobs last month, should we rely

on that report as much as usual or is the public and the nerve misplacing that trust especially after recent changes, barclays notes that would be made to the private adp payroll survey, that it is a better gauge of the job market and that report said the u.s. added almost 20 -- he is head of economic research at barclays jonathan, you're going out on a limb here, giving adp this much credit. >> yeah. i think historically we've always looked at the adp report that comes out before the payroll report and we look at the number and see how it squares up and then we throw it away, but the revisions that they've made for their approach are pretty meaningful. effectively what they've made and the report is an alternative measure of employment and in fact, when you dig in to the details of the adp information, their survey is actually comparable in terms of the size

to the bls establishment survey. they actually have a lot of features in the survey that are very good in terms of measurements they probably do a better job among other things of taking care of first and establishment which is a big reason why we get the type of benchmark revisions that steve was talking about a moment ago in addition to that, there are no missing respondents and it has the coverage of smaller firms and so forth so there are a lot of things to like about that measure and we think that we should be giving it some weight >> i would like to get a response from steve and larry. steve, to you. >> there is a revelation going on in our ability to understand our economy through high frequency data if we let it. it's not a given and it's not going to happen if we don't make it happen, but when i was instrumental in bringing adp to cnbc more than a decade ago it's

because i was one of the people -- and there were many of us, who saw the possibility of using high-frequency data and private sector data to enhance and sometimes better what the government is doing. now, adp has problems and it's going to take time to -- i think, tweak it, but what they're doing now is what they should have been doing all along. not try to model the confusion that's put in, for good reason by the bls, but just tell us what your number is. >> totally >> understand the need for seasonal adjustment, but this is early days and this is just like ford just came out with this car, the engine works and the weal spins and we're not sure, but it will create a ref laugz it will be a slow process, but akp is doing it the reit thing i applaud him for being

contrarian. >> people have been dismissing it with the broad data coming out. >> larry, to you you say they dismiss it because it isn't the labor department. just tell us what the number is. >> i have a follow-upto my idea >> the more data the better. we all know there are problems with adp and we all know there are problems with bls. to their credit, the fed also selects a lot of anecdotal information to their local board of directors, for example, and i'm sure they don't disregard that. >> i was just going to follow up, kelly that the market never trades on the trug of jobs if you think about it, they come out with a number and say the number is 2 hun,000 and the market sells off because it's weak two months later, or a month later it's revised to the consensus number when did the market have the trade that it had? >> totally i think getting more contemporaneous data is a step

in the right direction >> although jonathan can underline the point, larry, and jonathan, if you think this is a point towards the benchmark provision than we expected for the government support and to larry's point, just how much more point there is into the wage next year and whether that does leave the fed room or acquire them to cut or not >> all of these are pretty hard to measure in real time. i think the benchmark revision, i mean, if you look at some of the early estimates from the qcs, and what the bls has used to do this benchmarking, they suggest at this point that there may be downward revisions. there's something that is perhaps not understood by market participants is when you see the data themselves revised quite a bit. >> oh, my goodness we're talking about wage data.

it creates the benchmark, would it revise you as they revised themselves, jonathan >> yeah. we see it in the fourth quarter of this year and there is a systematic pat everyone of upward revision of qcw in recent years and it's something to watch for. so we can't really bank on revisions along the lines that would be suggested by fourth quarter. >> can i be a mice to the statisticians. there is 150 million people. >> by change of a couple thousand. >> by change of a couple thousand, yeah they're trying to thread the needle every month every month i think they get it right. more or less, there's a big issue this morning in preparation for this panel here, when you have a lot of quits it's possible that we're double

counting jobs because if the quit ratio is high then a lot of churn may not have fallen off one payroll for another. that's a possibility meanwhile, if you look at the trajectory of job growth, the -- the population i believe we're supposed to be 75 to 100,000 we are routinely doing 100,000 more than we should be doing where are these bodies coming from are they ghosts in the machine you might want to quote a police dog or a famous phrase that goes back are these guys ghosting the machine? where are they coming from and by the way, if this has been happening while the unemployment rate has been steady, then maybe the population growth is higher and maybe the fed is wrong and the job market is not that tight. >> larry put a point on this one. we'll give you the last word >> i think that what's important here is what actually happens to wages as opposed to employment because that is the drive for inflation and i'm just watching

wage settlements i'm also watching what is the political necessity for union leadership they have to deliver now they haven't delivered for a long time. if they don't deliver now they'll be increasing questions among workers about why bother with the union so i think we're going to seea very aggressive union movement and continued upward pressure on wage rates. >> i'm, like, there are only a small portion of the workforce how much macro impact does that have >> barry knapp brought it, disemvert. >> thank you, larry. >> i've been searching for that word, too. >> and thank you along with our own steve liesman. still ahead, home affordability is nearing a four decade low and that's just this morning and with rents starting to fall could there be a new shift a new spin on the age old debate

of stocks versus bonds and the etf neck and neck with the etf up in may and now there's a 20-point difference between the two. as we head to break, here's a quick look at markets and the russell has turned green and it's unchanged and it's lagging as the nasdaq is up a quarter of a percent over 4500 today and the dow is up 1% led by those four companies dom mentioned and the ten-year, 4.086. we are back after this ♪ ♪ >> this is "the exchange" on cnbc

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♪ ♪ welcome back the dow is up 1% today and check off shares of amazon which is off 2% after reuters is reporting they are set to move with the ftc next week ahead of the potential antitrust lawsuit and that has investors encouraged about prospects and amazon shares moving toward session highs or definitely session highs. turning to housing, home prices also continuing to rise and that, plus high rates is pushing home affordability to a 38-year low as of this morning according to black knight and it's the opposite story in rentals where a glut of apartment and rental

homes have now pushed their vacancies to 2021 and they've fallen to pre-pandemic levels to 1% to 3% according to data company co-star. let's bring in andy walton, thanks good to see you. >> good to see you, too. >> i'm trying to think of this unusual -- it feels to me like markets are markets and if rents are that much cheaper than homes then people will flood into the rental market at some point, but maybe they won't because a lot of the millennial cohort are looking at the lifestyle change to life in the suburb and the yard and all of that. >> there are no good options out there. home affordability at of this morning is at a 38-year low. and rent prices tend to trail home prices and they're slowing down a little bit and you are seeing unaffordable rents out there in the market and regardless of where you look, shelter costs are simply

expensive. >> they are expensive now and it's pretty clear that while home prices might still be even higher, rents might seem to be a better deal. >> when you look at rental growth, it tends to trail home price growth out in the market and what you're seeing in terms of rent prices is when we've seen in the housing market over the last 18 months and we've seen the home price go to 20% down to effectively zero in may and we've seen the rent follow the same path and what's interesting in june is that you've seen an inflexion in the housing market start to heat back up and that's our expectation is you look over the next few months we're at 0% last month and we expect 2% home growth, and maybe three by the following month and you'll see that reaccelerated into the fall. >> you think 3% year on year >> yeah. >> wow we talked last time and it was interesting how youed in '22 we saw a reset in markets like san diego, but not all markets so where are we now nationwide

where are these price hikes coming from and are they kind of coming from everywhere at this points >> it's a little bit of everywhere it's not proportionate everywhere, but 60% of markets are up and when you look at kind of where it's taking place, and if you just look at june month on month and seasonally adjusted and the strongest gains are in the northeast and the midwest and they're strong and they have low inventory and relative affordability and those are the markets that have been hot and have stayed healthy. what's interesting about june is the western part of the u.s. so your san joses have seen some of the markets drop have turned a corner and are number two and number three in terms of price gains in june and you're seeing those markets and the pandemic markets with the exception of austin trying to pick up steam here, as well. >> why do you think that is? as you hear the headlines even today, zoom calling people back to work in company to company. what's keeping the pandemic hot markets still hot in the housing

space? >> inventory is the simple answer it's all a matter of inventory and the reason austin is still full, is it remains at quote, unquote, normal levels in the market and some of the west coast pandemic markets that have moved back into markets and the inventories have fallen again this spring and so as the inhave not or has fallen you'll see the markets start to peak back out >> we should expect a change in there, right >> even when it drops folks come back into the market you'll see demand return into that, i'm more concerned with the demand returning rather than the supply there are signs and signals that folks will sell with 5% interest rates and i'll believe it when i see it, right? we've seen it take place on the demand side. we haven't seen it take place on the supply side yet and it's when the supply comes back >> incredible the way rate hikes

have driven inflation in the housing market and maybe some extent in the oil market, as well maybe people say it's textbook, but it's not what i was expecting. andy, we appreciate it >> andy walton of black combooit for some stocks it's starting to feel like fent 21. the more bankruptcy the better microcaps can be you doing can the company turn these into 'll.al shot at surviva wel talk to kate rooney up next on "the exchange. with your hearing, if you start having a little trouble,

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which just file for bankruptcy are all microcaps and we're talking about 40 million shares on average over the past 30 days as you can see in the chart climbing, but look at this, in the past five trading sessions those averages have spiked or quintupled and all three stocks have seen their highest trading volume day on record in the past two weeks. what's driving these surges? kate roony is looking into this for us, hi, kate. >> the pockets in the market are having a moment right now that feel like the meme stock rally from 2021. the akd in the stocks cohen side right now and hitting the highest levels since february and the concentration in concentrated interest in microcap stocks like right aid, tupperware and yellow which you just mentioned are a few common threads here, like the original meme stock, we talked about gamestop a couple of years ago, and these are consumer names with underlying problems they're microcap stocks to begin with and they're classic target

for short sellers and they're all about 20% or so of the available shares and that's roughly four times the average stock. therefore, setting up a potential short squeeze. social media can attract individual traders to these games and there are also hedge funds that monitor reddit and pile in, as well dan lobe highlighting this in a letter to investors saying fundamental analysis is increasingly taking a backseat to monitoring daily options and reddit message boards. not entirely quitting short selling, but he said third point will reduce single-name exposure the bulk of the buying that they talk about this weekend to note is about broad-based etfs and treasury etfs. it's not all meme, momentum changing. >> i guess, but they're having a big impact in the microcaps and thank you very much, our kate rooney over to tyler matheson now for a

cnbc news update >> thank you very much, atlanta being locking down the courthouse after a possible indictment. they put large traffic barriers and steel crowd control barricade. the barriers will be up to at least august 18th as part of what the county sheriff calls a protective plan. two fire fighting helicopters collided mid-air while battling a fire in riverside county, california the southern region chief said the fiery collision killed three people a cal fire captain and a contract pilot the second helicopter was able to land with no injuries to the passengers the crash also sparked an additional four-acre fire. it was happily extinguished. tesla expanding its customer base with a new product. the electric car company is selling a cyber house, and it's

inspired by the tesla pickup truck, but it's made out of cardboard instead of stainless steel alloy. there is a look at it. it's available only on the chinese version of tesla's website for you and your cat >> the dog features, the dog mode in the original tesla was also a big part of the appeal. >> i don't know about the dog mode >> do you have a dog >> no, i have two cats >> maybe i can get this for pete and m.j., the cats >> see you in a bit. >> all right coming up, the two or maybe three key reasons why berkshire hathaway's stock is rallying today. should you take a page out of the oracle playbook. shouldn't you always those tadeils are next on "the exchange." here. aspercreme arthritis. full prescription-strength? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon.

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♪ ♪ welcome back to "the exchange." the s&p posting its best seven-month start to the year since 1997, but you can also get some pretty decent returns these days in bonns and cash take a look at these yields on treasuries six-month bills, still yielding, there it is, almost 5.5% same -- even one-year t-bills 1.4% and that helped boost berkshi berkshire hathaway my next guests are fans of berkshire and of bonds brian weinstein, and bill stone,

ceo -- of glenview trust welcome to both of you bill, i just want to start with you and berkshire's earnings from its t-bill holdings and apple's share performance and they also helping. >> yeah. i think when you strip out the investment results and they're really important over the long run and over the short run you want to look at how they're operating and thanks to the particularly the insurance side and what you mentioned, the income coming off the t-bills, operating earnings per share grew at 8% and when you put it into perspective relative to the fact that the s&p 500 does as a whole is probably going to report a decline of more than 5% year over year in earnings and a big divergence with berkshire there. >> bill, what are your thoughts? if i ask you about stocks, i'm at the seven-month run, what would you do would you chill?

>> i think i would take a page from oracle and, you know, look for opportunities and that's always the way it is and it doesn't hurt you that the t-bill is a little bit and you do want to get stocks over the long run, and i certainly would stay on the more defensive side and what you did see is berkshire hathaway with the net seller at about $8 billion in stocks in the second quarter >> true. we'll find out next monday what stocks those were. >> that's a great point that they're selling and they're some of the most well-known equity investors of all time. >> brian, let me turn to you maybe i can put the table back up i see a one-year t-bill at 1.5% and i'm salivating. what am i missing? if i hold this to maturity, am i really going to look back and say gee, i could have gotten 6.3% if you do, you can put more money into it. >> right >> i think you're right, that

t-bill rate is attractive and men's equities could go up 10%, 20%, 30% certainly cash has done its job and i think what you're seeing investors doing is just what youed, give me the cash rate and something riskier and the stuff in between, i'm not sure if it's high enough rate. >> i don't know if it's that attractive with the 30 year, and if i'm holding it to maturity, you don't want to put on the fund, but if i'm holding it until maturity is the opportunity cost this is where the stock market has been so frustrating because you say, well, okay, kelly you know, let's take the last six months and you could have 2.75% or a 20% run in the s&p 500. >> no doubt. if you can look at a crystal ball, you would not need 20% and you have people that have buyer's remorse and the stocks that were up the most and i think if you take a balanced view, cash is great and the money markets will have the inflows and the cash rates are

attracting investors and they should, and what you said, high yields and bank loans have also done a good job. they've beaten cash, more risk, but you've got a higher wryield and when you talk about the deficit and none of it is new and the question investors are asking is there is a return and i know my cash is good i know credit is good and don't i need more of a premium for things like ten-year notes and the question is still out there to be answered. >> one more question is how much are these high yields which berkshire is with one of the biggest creditors and how much is the t-bill yield a result of the treasury supply? right now they're flooding the market from t-bills to drain money from the reserves and they'll shift that back toward the longer end how much do you think that's going to change yields across the curve? >> i think the answer is not as much as people want to make it sound. the truth is the t-bill yield is there because that's where the funds rate will be and that rate

is where fed funds are going to be i think the question is not necessarily on supply and we'll have more fiscal spending if we'll have equities that will do okay and growth inflation will continue to be high and investors will want a higher return yield and we're not going to sell off because go look at japan and the large supply and very low yields and central bank balance sheets are shrinking and sticking inflation and cash rates and equities and i think it makes it tougher for the yield curve to make it really low. >> i'll give you the final question when you look at the markets broadly speaking where do you see the most opportunity or the place that you would most like to be right now >> i think i would lean toward the more defensive side and i see the opposite of that where it is trading well and i think the market's priced in a lot of good news on the economy and probably rightly so. we are clearly more away from a recession than most people

thought at this point, and i do think maybe there's an opportunity in the health care area just kind of lean against it and collect some nice dividends and live to fight another day if we do get a sell-off >> yeah. it's like the pros are nervous, you know not fully convinceded by this one. brian weinstein, appreciate your time today a.i. isn't just about disrupting drug trials or surgical procedures and it's also changing the much more mundane way doctors do their work every day and it's a change that could reduce their burnout andi improe the patient experience that's coming up on "the exchange."what, i' it's your verizon. ♪ ♪

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artificial intelligence is now disrupting one of the biggest headaches in health care medical works take doctors and nurses hours every day and cut into time with patients as we all experienced. the national bureau estimates that using a.i. for administrative tasks could save the health system $200 to $300 bil billion in the country

our bertha coombs has it >> when you go to the doctor, they look into your electronic health record and most of them end up finishing those notes and end up finishing notes back later at home. it is so common. it is called pajama time by doctors. microsoft's unit has an a.i. app that they hope can put pajama time to bed. >> kr johnson starts patient visits by pulling out her phone. >> i can pay more attention to you. are you comfortable with me using it >> using nuances when she's seeing patients. a.i. programs like her patients for her which have freed her from. >> pajama time should be the time when you're winding down and getting ready to go to bed, we are charting and enhancing

the life of the patient and not necessarily our own quality of life >> at jacksonville, harnessing generative a.i. program to help doctors and nurses fight burnout is a cost priority >> the economies of scale, and economies that health care will be able to get into leveraging a.i. >> why so? >> because you eliminate the bureaucracy overhead and you allow folks. >> using a.i. could help hospitals cut total costs by 5% to 11% in the next five years according to a national bureau of economic research study her position groups up to 8% and for health insurers 7% to 10%, though the up-front investment isn't cheap. >> i just made my patients i whole lot happier and my physicians a whole lot more productive. >> about that productivity, the doctor says it shouldn't mean more work. pajama time is now referred to time with her family >> this is about the doctor

having the quality of life that they deserve because we're people, too. >> the newest version of the app using open a.i. is instantaneously. microsoft is working with epic, which is the nation's largest electronic health record firm on being able to take those notes and really leverage them in the ehr. kelly, one of the things that they're working to do is to be able to write notes back to patients to do that, but they're not the only ones who are trying to tackle those. >> hopefully everybody is because from a patient experience this can't move fast enough and it's amazing that the patients don't like and the doctors don't like and yet here we are how quick do you think the prospects are for a dramatic different experience >> well, it's one of those things that i talked to one doctor at stanford and she said this is like we've gotten the iphone 1, and she thinks this is going to move a lot faster than she has been to get from the iphone 1 to the iphone 15.

it's not just microsoft if you take a look at the others who are trying to get in on the market and amazon web services has a health scribe and google health has med pom and don't fo forget that oracle has turner and they have projects >> a lot of this a.i. revolution could benefit the big incumbents as opposed to the start-ups. there are start-ups working with different companies and working at different points, but certainly you've got these big incumbents that have seen the writing on the wall and they've required them and bertha, thank you. our bertha coombs reporting. >> what do beyond meat, underarmour and chad have in common they're all down 09% from their all-time highs and we'll get the action, the story and the trade on all three names next in the earnings exchange.

we never just see the numbers. we see the people. marcus: detroit, it's just changed so much. you can see what it once was. and then, i think about what it can be. as an entrepreneur, it's about how i can give them the tools to empower themselves if we can just all do something small, all the small things will start to amount to something big. that's why we're here to help make it happen.

welcome back to "the exchange." time for earnings exchange where we've got the action, the story and the trade on three stocks about to report, beyond meat, ch hegg and under armour. let's get to it our cnbc contributor, founder and ceo of new street advisers and welcome

for the first time. >> thanks for having me. >> beyond meat, up about 20% this year, street will be watching for demand on those i didn't know you recently launched beyond pepperoni. they have prance on further price hikes, generally consumer elasticity, debt levels over on shares which are down from the 2021 high. what would you do with this stock? >> this is a stock that you want to hold right now. there's a few reasons why. if you look at the short-term story it's not strong or great to have a weaker consumer right now. they also have an area where they are looking at a situation where debt is an overhang for them as well look at the long-term story for beyond meat. there is a long-term play in the food services business they can hang on to the moat of the players they partner with on the food side rather than feeting on the retail side which is a very, very tough position if you also look at this, i think shareholders could be

diluted because they are burning cash so they have to raise cash at some point, and that could be diluted to the current shareholders i'd be holding and waiting for a lot of this to play out. >> we gave you three tough names today so this one is a hold. what about chegg those shares were down 40% despite an earnings beat because they issued weaker than expected guidance and warned that chant gpt wo-- chatgpt -- >> when partnered with open ai to create their own ai function for their platform, look at something interesting in their report which was there's a million fewer higher ed people students in school than there were over the past few years. >> wow that trend is lowering if you look at the growth of the company for the company, that's

concerning to me if you look at the growth they need the platform to have the higher ed services up on the subscription services. that is a little shaky with the growth competition and less users on the platform. >> they were rallying earlier today of the they had this partnership. they announced a scaled ai to announce the proprietary language models. even with the language edge this is a tough market to crack right now. >> if you look at way people consume education now, there's a lot more competition from social media and different platforms obviously, from chatgpt and open ai and other language models that will come out that's going to be a big sticking point when they have to wave through that, they do a better job for right now be cautious. >> on the shrines. what about under armour? shares are brown more than 22% this year and this stock peaked in 015 at about $50 a share. it's under $8 right now. international and footwear growth will be key according to

raymond james as the u.s. and apparel sections are under pressure also saying they expect underarmor to discount merchandise in order to clear high inventory and the company announced some executive changes at end of june, including plans to shift the chief supply officer. what a tough story this one has been. >> it's been tough, but i'm still hanging in on. the last quarter was telling to what we could potentially see this quarter which were margins were compressed and inventory up that's not great you don't want to see inventory up that's obviously tell of what's going on with consumers right now, how consumer demand is weakening. so when you look at under armour, the thing i like about them, the change in management came into playing such a great job building this company up for the last couple of decades and now we're looking at the new fresh eyes coming in and what the new field is focused on is the branding position which is where under armour could make a big change the competitors do a great job with the branding. i think under armour can do a little bit better on that side

as well. >> do you think the stock is a buy or i -- i won't let go i can't let go >> this is one that i have i still like and still, you know, really like the position i got in at. for one if you're holding, continue to hold on to that stock, and the people still looking at it, it potentially could be a buy if you like the situation. >> we gave you a couple of tough stocks and that's just the mix we have reporting today. any more you feel excited about, tech, industrials, health? where do you think the big opportunity is >> i think the big opportunity is going to be long-term for the companies. beyond meat, that's going to be a longer play and hold for people i think they are going to be near-term volatility if you look at how extended the s&p has been over the last year to date potentially. buyers are ready to stay in and stick in over the summer there could be some happy buyers later on. >> all right thank you. we appreciate it good to see you as well today. >> thank you. before we go, want to draw your attention to shares of

warner brothers discovery. wbd is targeting the beginning of major league baseball playoffs to debut a sports tier for its max streaming service. it would simulcast nba, nhl, ncaa games and use the bleacher report name 3% on that news. that does it for us. "power lunch" is next. dyler is getting rea i'll join him on the other side of this break. vacuums work continuously around the house, but when your team has to work seamlessly around the world... you need more than technology. you need cdw who can help transform your organization with built for performance lenovo thinkpads. pre-configured for management flexibility and equipped with the intel evo platform. responsive collaboration tools give your team effortless connectivity to stay focused wherever they work. fetch. lenovo makes seamless productivity possible. cdw makes it powerful. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you?

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and the love is coming from your heart. the new york stock exchange is the symbol of what america is all about. the potential of capitalism, the potential of the american dream. the only way you can move a society forward is a true expression of freedom. ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: stock exchange bell ringing ) ♪ good afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch. alongside kelly etches, i'm taths crop extra credit, consumer credit card debt and rates are still on the rise and inflated prices remaining high could this be a catalyst for problems in the economy? we'll explore that the end of an era, zoom. the company that as much has any facilitated the work-from-home trend is calling workers back to thfi