value in the common shared of yellow, i don't know what happens with memes, i don't, understand, all i know -- even after they sell every last paperclip they own, they won't have enough money to pay the creditors, there won't be anything left over for the common -- >> donald, thank you that's going to do it for us at "overtime. "fast money" begins now. right now on, "fast," how te mighty have fallen apple and microsoft losing half a trillion dollars in combined market cap in a few weeks what is behind the moves s lower? plus, all eyes on eli. reporting giants tomorrow and the focus will be on weight loss products what can we expect and can new trial results from novo nordisk change the game? and, a new high for uri, and tyson shareholders why the coop. the details behind all those stocks are coming up

mim i'm melissa lee, this is "fast money. everyone here in-house we start with the potential warning signs of the market. major indices with solid gains the do w adding 400%. the nasdaq, not far behind but not everyone came along for the ride check out apple, pulling back more than a percent and a half today. the world's biggest tech company is now more than 9% off its all-time high hit in mid-july. that's not all microsoft managed a gain today, but down 10% from its record high last month. so, is this cause for concern or a sign that the rally has actually broadened out, that we can move beyond just these two, you know, generals, dan? >> yeah, so, when you think about the moves that the two of them have, okay, technically, they have broken the uptrend in place for most of this year. that's important in a market where people don't really care much about valuation if you think about how far microsoft and apple have come, they make up 14% of the s&p 500,

two of the stocks together if you look at the reports that they had, they were fine there was nothing great, there was nothing horrible but they sold off really hard, and i think that is important to note in the fact that it happened very quickly. if you were to have other names join the party, that would certainly be a problem but you talk about the rotations that we've seen, and it has been pretty good. if you think about it, the s&p had lows on friday, only down 3% from those highs, with two of the biggest components down 10%. so, to me, i think you can look ate, if you wanted to try to be really bearish, slow market, we've just gotten through earnings, we don't have another fed meeting, if we do see some things start to snowball, the other names join the party, if we were to see amazon, if we were to see, you know, google, which gapped up 10%, fill in their gaps, we could have a bit of a problem right now, i think it's okay >> the other sectors that rallied today will continue their rally? industrials, officials, consumer discretionary, the markets can hold up?

>> can i ask you to ask a would you rather of guy -- >> wait. >> follow the rules. >> no would you rathering. >> i'm not it would be interesting to ask someone, would you rather the market follow higher the megacap tech stocks or see them sell off. try that, guy, what do you think? >> you're asking it now? >> you didn't even -- >> i'm confused already. >> you know what, i was -- i was doing great until that last part i'm out. i'm out. >> you are out >> guy >> i understand what he meant, though, oddly enough if you had told me on july 20th that by august 7th, both microsoft and apple would be both down 10% from the all-time high, say, okay, guy, where's the s&p 500, i would say, melissa, we are no doubt trading down to that level, 4325, where we topped out last august and we are probably threatening to go through it here we are at 42520. i you this it's a matter of time before the broader market catches up to what the megacaps

are doing. today, outstanding >> you agree, karen? >> i would have thought the market lower, but i think this is much better action. i think that, to see other companies, other sectors sort of join the party, there were some like travel which pulled back a little bit, which is going crazy, and love to see that in banks, love to see that in industrials. consumer discretionary is still unclear, because we do have the student loans beginning to be repaid next month, and so, that's a little less clear to me, but i feel much more comfortable with the market like this i still am short the igb, which was up today i think that high flyer index should have some pressure on it with rates having moved the way they have. >> tim, question for you -- >> oh! >> think about this, we just talked about the two big ones, okay, but think about semis, okay what we heard from amd, what we heard from taiwan semi, what we heard from qualcomm, the list goes on and on, wasn't particularly great my question to you, and i know you focus on the relative

strength of this index when we get to nvidia on august 23rd, i feel like it has the potential to have the sort of reaction that microsoft and apple, because really, just good is not going to be good enough >> i need to apologize first, because i have taken this desk off the rails and the -- >> unacceptable. >> it's unacceptable let me answer dan's question and give the show back to melissa, please >> sorry >> look, as i've said, we haven't made new relative highs on semis since nvidia reported, and the qs, as well. if you look at apple's chart, it hasn't broken through to the downside, the 100-day moving action, september of 2022. we know where it all went. and on some level, the big stocks in apple, notably, there's a refleck fivety to all of this, and a circular nature can they pull down the other stocks if it's aggressive enough of a selloff and i would argue that apple is discretionary spending it's not a tech company. third straight quarter, they

pulled a lot forward i think it doesn't bode well for discretionary. but the broader economy is in a pretty decent place, so, i actually don't think it's a lot to be alarmed of the velocity of the move, it's pretty major stuff that we've seen, but seeing rotation, that aggressively, means a lot of people have been outside the broader economy and need to get there in a hurry >> to pull a page from karen's playbook, though, some would argue that those valuations, like for instance, in apple, should never have gone to 30 a pull-back is natural and totally within the range of normal behavior for the stock, because it should not have been at 30 to begin with on a forward p ee basis, anyway. >> microsoft, as well. does it deserve that premium probably not so, the quarter was very good. but not quite good enough. and apple, the quarter had some little nicks in it, whatever nvidia will be really important, as dan said, august 23rd i think if it is anywhere close -- $11 billion, that's bad. >> they have to beat, in other

words. >> they have to beat they have to beat. >> which they would. have said if they didn't think they would beat it >> had to be sandbagging if they don't beat, unless they have something like, we have such a giant book, we just were not able to fulfill, and we'll be doing that, but i think $11 billion not hold this stock here >> karen said that actually the day nvidia reported, said exactly those things and i think today, in small part, this resteepening of the yield curve, which, again, north of 100 basis points -- i think less than 70 basis points close today, which is, again, an amazing movement in a short amount of time i think the market's construing that as positive and maybe in the very short-term, it is it's the resteepening where risk as sets start to get whacked >> we were saying, the vix open the week at 13, okay, it was just saying to you, there was no fear in the market the implied move in the options market, the one-day move for apple was 3% that might have been one of the

smallest moves for apple, especially after this perfect 45-degree angle that carter talked about so, the fact that stock sold off 5% in a straight line told you where everybody was. they were on the same side of it i think there's a lot of other stocks like that, but we're going to need this sort of -- snowball effect or something like that, to put some real fear back in the market to get the vix back above 20, if you will, but there are levels, and last week, he said that breakout level of 176 in apple would be a great place to start adding to that, and it went right there. microsoft got a level of 300, fill in the gap, maybe, to its last earnings from april back to 275. those are where you want to buy the stocks which is -- that's where you want to buy the qqq, if those two stocks get back to those -- >> i think -- i was selling, just not major stuff here, but i was selling some puts down to 160 on apple, based upon the velocity of that move, that vol and those deltas were paying you. i can trade out of that if --

so, you don't get these opportunities with the biggest stock in the world, the stock that moved 54% into those numbers off of jan 4 low and i just think that if you now look, again, relative apple to the s&p, it's back to where it was last year. so, all the outperformance is gone >> does this hardening you at all -- >> do i look like the hardening type >> i thought, you, of all people -- no, but the market has differentiated between the earnings reports apple, microsoft, had the little nicks or whatever you want to call it in their reports so they sold off they warranted that selloff, they should not have been at that pe, given what they delivered. and we hadalphabet, meta, a different story. >> not being rewarded anymore. that's an encouraging sign the fact that we're seeing this rotation, despite the fact, again, apple, microsoft, other names have gotten whacked over

the last week and a half s&p still 4520 very encouraging sign. i think it's going to be relatively short-lived, though, because again, these global bond moves, nothing's changed on that front at all and the resteepening of the yield curve, which, banks love today, i don't know how much longer the market's going to like it. now a lot of people are seemingly talking about some credit event in the back half of this year. i'm sure we'll talk about that at some point. the things to be concerned about in the fall. >> higher bond yields so interesting, because we knew it was going to be higher for longer almost like we didn't want to believe that it was going to happen nobody wanted to believe it, and all of a sudden, fitch downgrade, we see a spike, and oh, we better start selling. >> i know. >> the underpinning to the me for the bulls in the market are still the same if you want to see a soft landing or no landing scenario, it's still there >> yes that's why i really buy into the story of, it's just -- it's the treasury saying we have so much more to sell and we're going to be selling ten years, for example, so, we see two tens, to guy's point, 67 basis points,

down from 103, wherever it was that -- that's really just a supply and demand issue. that's it. more supply of ten-year is coming step back and wait or buy them now if they get cheap enough >> i guess this is what we're calling a bearish steepening this is not really, you know, a concern on inflation it is concern on maybe some of the macro, some of the credit. karen is right, a lot is technical, but the reality is, owning equities, when you can get 2.5% from t-bills -- that's the biggest problem with everything we're talking about, is the stock market is expensive. by any measure i don't know what the economy is going to do. clearly playing out a lot longer to go into a downturn. i don't think the economy is in a bad place at all a lot of things are ugly

i know it's a manufacturing recession, but it's the equity market valuation that's the problem. for more on where the markets go from here, let's bring in david rosenberg david, great to have you with us you say it's silly season, these days, for the equity markets why is that? >> well, i think it goegs back to the comment that was just made about valuations. so i understand the momentum aspect of this market and the technical aspect of it, and we can debate the soft landing or hard landing i would say if you have a soft landing, no landing view, let's face facts you have a 20 multiple on the s&p 500 on forward earnings. that's a 5% earnings yield, and you can pick up 5.5% in the treasury bill market with no risk, though duration risk, no capital risk so, i would say that, you know, when do the math, it's a very expensive market, no matter what your macro view is when i'm talking about silly

season, it's one thing to have a 20 multiple a couple years ago when rates were at zero. but the premium has only been where it is today 10% of the time in the past the valuations are extreme i'm not going to say that they are dot com level extreme, but we are in the top 10% of valuation excess that we've had historically and i think that's a warning sign >> how do you see this playing out then it seems like so many people are all of a sudden, you know, moving to the other side of the boat in terms of soft landing, no landing, they are jumping onboard, we see strategists bumping up their price targets by year end. it just seems that all of a sudden everybody is getting really bullish just when you say silly season is starting. >> well, i guess it's the -- it's the benefit of having done this for 40 years. so, you see what happens is that the market takes off for whatever reason. and then you get the analysts

and the economists and the strat strategists scurrying around trying to fit the narrative. and then the price action. sometimes the stock market is going to do what it's going to do, you know we go back to 2007, for example. nobody really had a recession in their forecast and everybody was talking about, you know, where's recession, we had the inverted yield curve, the lags are extremely long and as we had back then as we had today, we had a very expensive market on our hands, and at the same time, we had a ripping rally, you know, from the summertime of '07 to the october 9th high the market absolutely ripped and everybody's scratching their heads. of course, we know what happened next and so, sometimes people just fit the narrative to the price action, because what else are you going to do? we all know that the market is this ma live lent beast, does not always respond to valuation, it's not a timing tool

it doesn't always respond to the fundamentals it just sometimes takes a head of its own and it's called animal spirit. the reason why the term animal spirits is around is because that's what happens when we have the momentum-based rally, which we've had for the past several months the one thing i would like to ask the group is this, that when the fed is cutting interest rates into a bear market, all you ever hear is, don't fight the fed, don't fight the fed, don't fight the fed. and valuations matter, the market's cheap, but on the other side of the coin, you know, the fed is tightening policy and they really haven't signaled that they're done yet. and p you don't hear anybody saying, don't fight the fed anymore. and now nobody talks about valuation. so, it's just -- >> guy adami says it, rosy in your note, you said, discretionary spending in real terms barely expanded in q-2 you talk about the market recognizing and not. we talk about a name like disney, or starbucks, or nike, they're barely, like, unchanged

on the year. the market is recognizing, i think, the fact that you're, like, kind of putting out here about discretionary spending will a recession be started by a consumer slowdown even with the back draft of the jobs picture, which seems kind of confounding, or might it start from something on the enterprise level? >> i think it's going to start at the consumer level, and i think that we'll see the first signs of this after the student loan forgiveness program ends in the coming months. so i think it's going to be consumer led i understand the frustration amongst the bears, and i've been on the show before, and the question is, where is this recession already? where's this recession already but the thing is, interest rates do work their way through long lags and what's happened this year, 100% true we've had tremendous fiscal stimulus, but that's going to term out before the end of the year. what's not going to go away are the lags from the interest rate increases, and even if john williams says, well, rates will

come down next year, the question is, by how much the economy hasn't reset yet, and i did this work looking back historically, only a handful of times has the fed raised the funds rate 500 basis points or more in less than a year and a half this is a significant rate shock, and we haven't seen the full impact yet. but what i'm going to tell you is that after the 500th basis point increase in the funds rate, and it hasn't happened that often, okay, it's six months until the recession in that six-month period, we're basically -- we're in purgatory. we don't know -- we don't know where we are, we're just asking questions, where' the recession? but unless you believe interest rates don't matter in the most credit sensitive economy in modern history, or you believe that business cycle has been repealed, because we've had a year where fiscal policy did have an impact, it is not going to be big enough to offset the lags from these interest rate increases. so, i think that by the third or fourth quarter, we're going to start to see more evidence, but it's going to come out of the

consumer side. >> right >> not the corporate side, but there will be spin-off effects this is going to be a consumer-led recession it will be more severe than people think into 2024 >> all right, david, good to speak with you, thank you. david rosenberg, rosenberg research >> i'm going to apologize, because we posed a question to the group -- >> i know. >> anarchy >> i've turned this into -- >> chaos on the show tonight >> sorry >> do you think it will start -- we heard so many stories from retailers so far that have reported about tradedown, et cetera >> i do. because if you think -- the consumer stops spending when something happens in the market to the downside. it happened in the fall of 2018 from october to christmas eve, consumer spending stopped on a dime because the stock market went down 19.9%. so, i'm still of the belief it's going to be a stock market shock, which will scare the consumer, which will roll into a consumer-led recession >> on top of that, the student

loan repayment, and higher energy prices. >> no question energy is now a fresh headwind, and though energy companies have actually probably been the biggest disappointment, though they're probably not out of this earn earnings, but it's an issue. dan mentioned nike, starbucks, and apple, i mean -- you know, nike's not going to get away from you on the upside what's the multiple you want to pay? not a peak market multiple and probably started six months ago. coming up, shares of lucid on the move after the company's latest results numbers from the quarter. plus, all of today's tesla headlines. and tyson shares dropping as earnings and sales head south. is it time to take your eggs out of this basket >> oh. >> that d rehe"ft ne returnsn as

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on lucid motors, the ev maker higher after hours the conference call just getting started. let's bring in nphil lebeau with the latest >> i would call that a relief rally. rally might be a little too strong it is a case of the shares moving higher after the company released outlook that let people say, okay, we know that they plan to build the 10,000

vehicles this year, which was their guidance, and that's really what this is all about. the outlook from lucid after the q-2 results, the 2023 production stays at least 10,000 vehicles liquidity of $6.25 billion we'll talk about that in a little bit and they plan into going into suv production with the next model, the gravity, in late 2024 as you take a look at shares of lucid going all the way back to its ipo, i mentioned $6.25 billion, that's how much money they have, you know, the liquidity they have. they believe that is enough to get them into 2025, that they won't have to do a capital raise before then. with all that said, there is the question about demand. and the demand comes -- it's being stemmed from the fact that the company has cut prices on its current models, including prices being cut between $5,000 and $12,500. brings the lucid air pure down to a starting price of $82,400 now, cnbc did talk with

executives after the earnings release today, and they said, we are seeing an improvement in demand so, they do believe that these price cuts, which were initiated over the weekend, have had some impact here. we'll probably get more color in the next few minutes as the conference call, as you mentioned, melissa, is scheduled to begin at 5:30 eastern time. melissa, back to you >> all right, meantime, phil, a big move on tesla as news that the cfo is stepping down it's a good sign he's staying through the end of the year, so, wasn't necessarily a sign of bad blood or anything. but underscores the risk, because this comes as news that elon musk might have to have back surgery, so, if he's out of the mix, who is your backup? the guy walking out the door at the end of the year. >> well, there are others on the team, as well, but zach gets the most attention, because people have heard more from him on the conference calls after the quarterly earnings than anybody else and he's been the cfo for four years, before with the company 13, 14 years so, there's a known quantity

there, but he is stepping down that's effective immediately the chief accounting officer is going to be moved up to the cfo position and there is a transition period, where zach will still be there. i think the interesting thing here, melissa, is that this speaks to the fact that we've seen a number of executives leave tesla over the last several years and i can't tell you the number of times i hear people say, oh, here we go, this is a sign they've got problems there, their executives aren't staying around but they have continued to do well so, you do have to give elon musk a little bit of credit here that he may be a tough boss, he may be very tough to work for, for some people, but he has had a string of executives who have delivered in the position that they've been put into. >> phil, thank you phil lebeau. >> you bet >> gene munster was quoted as saying that working for tesla for, you know, 13 years is like working at any other company for 50 that's the wear and tear on somebody reporting to elon musk. >> people in relationships with me feel -- i'm sure you feel the

same way lucid essentially -- you go back to when they were projecting $5.5 billion of revenue this year for this year. this is two years ago. they just did $150 million for the quarter. you can do that math so, they are nowhere near it and the stock is reflecting that the bounce in the afterhours is just what we lost today, and it's still probably trades close to, 12, 13 times revenue by any metric, it's still expensive. it wasn't a great quarter. >> i mean, if ford and gm are having difficulty in the ev space, the startups are really stacked against them >> well, scale is everything, right? tesla obviously is such enormous scale. but here, you do have this put with the public investment fund, they are there, they seem to be willing to throw, i don't know if you call it good money or bad money, additional money at it at every point, so, this will save them, which is something that a lot of others, you know, relatively small, new ev companies, don't have. >> all right, and by the way, elon musk just x-ed on x that he

would like to thank zach for his many contributions to tesla over the course of 13 difficult years. >> i thought you were saying he was on x >> that's the platform now >> i thought it was a drug thing. >> x anyway a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next. no spring chicken. shares of tie zone walking on egg shells, as results disappointinvestors. is this stock a fox in your portfolio hen house? plus, lilly reports tomorrow and all eyes focused on weight loss but will the stock fatten up your returns we'll debate you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of tyson sinking as much as 11% today after posting disappointing results this morning. the meat company posting a drop in both earnings and revenue and announcing four plant closures across the country, an effort to reduce costs amid slowing demand the stock ended the day down nearly 4%. glut of certain proteins, chicken and pork -- >> feast or famine >> yeah. >> and this -- so, i was on power lunch, and actually it was the exchange earlier in the year, and we were talking about the summer of pork and that actually, you know, the beef dynamics were really particularly awful, in terms of a drought in the southwest and as we always say, one of the great things about commodities, there's always a supply response

so, this is probably response to lower prices and higher prices the problem with cattle is, it's a long lead time and so, the price of beef is going to continue to stay high the price of pork is being bit up but the cost basis for all of this is going through the roof and it's killed tyson. if you look at tyson, if you look at jbs, brazilian meat packing company, one of the biggest in the world, you have a dynamic where their stocks have been basically at lows for the last 15 months pricing this in i think it's getting interesting. you have priced in a lot of bad news >> you like -- >> eight-year low. this is an eight-year low, which is -- and people are trading down we had that conversation six months ago people are trading down from these things to, what was it, food kitchens, which is a horrible thing to say, but that's the dynamic going on here we talk about this great economy all the time, yet when you see a report like this, it makes you wonder, what's happening below the surface? is it interesting on valuation, probably, but it speaks to a much bigger problem. coming up, moves in the pharma space lilly gearing up for its latest

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks jumping to kick off the week the dow rallying more than 400 points as the s&p and nasdaq snapping four-day losing streaks. afterhours movers here paramount jumping. the company announcing it will sell publisher simon a& schuster to kkr chegg surging after the company's ceo said it is building its own, you know what, a.i. model of course, a.i but paramount was really interesting in terms of the metrics they were reporting. >> yeah, it was a beat, so, that was good you know, clearly, they have a balance sheet issue. so, anything they can do to get cash, that's good. they do have some time before the maturities are upon them, but i was -- if julie were here, she would say, this was a terrible boyfriend, i'm out, i don't care if he says he's changed, i'm not going back, no matter what. i just feel like, twooo levered

the world has changed for streaming. they have to make it profitable and money is not free. and it's very competitive. >> 35% increase in viewership, because of higher inventory, which i thought was -- even if it's a low bar, that's really -- maybe good news for disney, i don't know >> look, the bar was low here, but it's interesting to this die vest sure is interesting to see -- the sum of the parts on a lot of these the whole time warner thing is why it made sense for at&t not but i think the media sector is undervalued. and i think this is showing that. all eyes on eli lilly earnings the company turning in its q-2 report before the market opens tomorrow they have become a major player in the weight loss drug race, but faces not so slim competition from rivals novo nor nordisk. one expert says lilly is still one of the better positioned names in the pharma space. jared holz, always great to see

you. >> you, too. >> you say the bar is high valuation is high. >> yes >> so, it's really got to knock it out of the park at this point? >> i think so. at least the messaging has to be really positive. this is trading at 50 times this year, 37ish next year. that's three to four times what peer group is trading at so, it's going to be pretty close to perfect, i think. just in terms of the dynamic with the pipeline and timing with launches and things of that nature >> at the same time, we are expecting the next, in the days to come, the results from the novo select trials, right? and that will be really key for all of these glp-1 producers >> what's going to show us the cardiovascular outcomes of a patient population taking the glp-1s and those that have not and just kind of comparing heart attack risk, stroke risk, things of that nature over a two-year period to sigh what the real impact is. and if the impact is significant, call it mid-teens or so percent difference, then i think that's going to obviously

encourage insurance companies to pay for the drug more widely right now, this is basically -- wecussed it before, it's a vanity drug, more than a pharmaceutical drug, than people who are really clinically obese, but we'll have to see the results. >> say there's a 15% reduction, cardiovascular event, how much does it add on the valuation >> i think the stocks go up. novo and lilly on a mid teens to high teens we're looking for a statistically relevant tough to tell what the bar is. but if it hits statistically significant, which is probably in the range of 15% to 20%, then i think the stocks go up 5% to 10%. they are, obviously, pricing in a lot here, but the numbers, at least, appear doable, and i think the street will likely increase their estimates at least for the medium and long-term for what these drugs can do >> so, jared, there's been

some -- a few knocks on the story, right suicidal thoughts, and then this idea of, okay, it's not going to be something you're going to be on for life, so that changes the revenue stream do you factor those in your model? do you think that's just noise how do you think about it? >> i think it's mainly noise any time you have a drug like this, where some elsestimates h $100 billion people are seeking out negative narratives but i feel like the drug has been on the market for a number of years, right? these are reformulated diabetes drugs now used for obesity i think we probably would have heard a lot of this over the years, i feel like we're probably scratching and clawing our way to try to get some negative narrative here. and as far as, like, not taking the drug forever, for sure, you know i feel like for a lot of the patient population out there, they want to lose 20 to 30 pounds, if they do it, maybe they'll start making better choices, less coca-cola, less

doritos, more gym. that's the hope, at some point, that we start acting better. like, right now, i think it's basically a bahamas and bar mitzvah drug and we'll get to a point where we can -- >> i don't know exactly what that means, actually >> well, sure you do >> come on >> going to the bahamas. >> you want to look good for photos, you want to look good on the beach -- >> and you don't care. >> and then you get off it >> moderna, six straight sessions of declines, i think, bringing it to levels not seen since the end of 2020. and you had been in it at one point, you wanted to ask jared a question >> just -- in terms of the market cap and the balance sheet and this is a company, we know their pipeline, we know what was priced in, we know what covid meant for this company, and good for moderna, for everything they did for the world. >> agreed. >> dan was doing some research, and my understanding is that 21% net of debt of the balance sheet is in cash and at some point, why does this

stock continue to get vilified when you have that kind of a buffer >> well, i think that is interesting, and could be a bull piece, but they are spending at a higher rate. the government subsidized most of the r and d for this company, so, now they have to spend on flu and on the cancer vaccine. so, the expense line for the company is very different than it was and so, i think that's the biggest change now it's on them to spend and get this pipeline solidified beyond the pandemic -- >> almost a story, kind of like the cleveland browns there on your tie >> that's right. that's right >> takes a brave person to wear a cleveland browns tie on -- >> to admit you're a fan >> unless you are modell give you a lot of credit >> thank you >> modell. >> jared, always welcome here. thank you. >> thank you, appreciate it. >> jared's been on this for awhile i think we've done a decent job. go back to last quarter, they missed last quarter. stock trading 375, it's 450 now.

so, the company does miss. yes, valuation is stretched, but still talking about a company with 32% earnings growth, probably 20% revenue growth, so -- it's not a ridiculous valuation, and this is one that, if this stock sells off tomorrow, analysts are going to race to raise their price targets, because a lot of them have missed this move. >> i'm going to bring back the guest -- >> whoa! talk about regaining control >> quick question. if lilly sells off on earnings, do you buy it ahead of the select results >> i think you do. i think you do if it sells off dramatically, you do if it's a $5 move, $10 move, nothing to do. but down 25, 30 bucks tomorrow, for sure >> jared, thank you again. >> thank you >> again >> first ever. good for you, mel. did that feel good >> felt really good to break the rules. options traders are betting lilly stock could fall tomorrow. mike khouw has the action. mike >> yeah, it's one of the busiest names in health care today traded well over two times its average daily options volume and the busiest contract were

the september 450 puts we actually saw a buyer of 2, 300 of those paying $16.20 a contract 's $3.7 million in premium to make a bearish bet that it could trade down by 20 bucks by september expiration it could be a hedge, that would be insurance on $100 million on the underlying >> mike, thank you for more options action, tune into the full show, that is friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, shares of united rentals having a red hot summer. will the run continue? we'll hit that trade next. plus, our next guest sees a big red flag in the housing market what is brewing, and how he's hoping to profit from turbulent times? reucl bring you that and mh mo when "fast money" returns good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help!

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welcome back to "fast money. shares of united rentals soared to a record close. the construction equipment maker has seen shares rise more than 35% this year and doubled from its 52-week low. karen has been in this stock >> yes, i mean, i don't understand why it was up today

i have no idea it sold off last week on earnings for what i thought, i said dumb, i regret having said dumb, but it didn't make sense this is a great story. over time, they just build value, build value build market share they are absolutely number one the whole business has changed people used to own their own construction equipment, now they don't, they rent, uri is very much ahead of the pack their balance sheet is as good as it's been i like -- and then throw on infrastructure, and throw on, you know, reshoring, and there's a lot to like here i don't love it when stocks go up for seemingly no reason >> shares jumping about 4.5% after the cannabis company announced it is buying eight beer and beverage brands among the names being sold by an huyser, shock top and blue point brewing. tim, you know this one >> i do. it's a significant position in my cannabis etf. it's a company that has 30% of revenues in noncannabis

businesses it's one of the reasons they had $43 million in free cash flow and they just announced numbers, growth is 27%. a lot of issues going on complex sector to be investing in but irwin sighmon has taken a l of heat for buying sweetwater, breckenridge, different places, because people thought he was trying to back door his way in and turn these into cannabis brand -- no, it's about buying brands creative to the balance sheet. coming up, our next guest is an early stage investor who will tell us how a.i. is changing the space. that's coming up in o.tw deliver solutions that meet complex needs. do right by customers, clients, and policyholders, always. repeat daily for over one hundred and seventy years.

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welcome back to "fast money. willshire lane capital is focused on real estate technology and recently completed its first generative a.i. with colleen a.i., a platform that helps property managers with the rent and debt collection process for more on that, let's bring in founder and managing partner adam -- i knew i was going to get that messed up, adam, apologies. great to have you with us. >> no, great to be here, melissa. >> this is not an industry that

you necessarily think of as being sort of, you know, a place where a.i. will be employed, but it makes a lot of sense. a lot of sort of repetitive processes that could probably be streamlined and maybe even wholly replaced by a.i walk us through this deal. >> yeah, absolutely, so, when you think about technology as it pertains to real estate, historically, real estate has been a laggard logistics, telecommunication, those are front-runners when it comes to technology, but real estate has been behind that's the case with a.i., as well with openai coming up with its chatgpt models, you've seen it impacts media, entertainment, logistics, transportation, but we haven't really seen it impact real estate so much. over the past few months, you're now seeing more of those use cases. so, as you mentioned, there are so many rudimentary manual processes that i don't think people realize that are happening on the back end of real estate, right so, anything from leasing to property management, to

maintenance and cap x, collections, these are done by people and they're typically lower level tasks. now that we have generative a.i. models, we are able to automate the processes. colleen a.i., our most recent deal, does that for the collections process. it uses large language models to generate optimal responses and outcomes in order to be able to communicate with the tenant and remind them such that they can pay their rent on time very excited about that one. >> are there sub-industries that will be completely replaced by this >> i think, you know, we like to look at it as an augmentation of the existing industry. you have back offices where people are filing paperwork, doing, you know, manual inputs for leasing, handling these processes on collections and maintenance and so, you know, the people who are doing this work, there's better things they

could be doing, right? when you think about real estate, property management, tenants, there's higher value engagement that can occur, doesn't have to be so transactional, and so, i think if you have automation from a.i. that flows into this, you actually can allow these people to move into higher engagement with their tenants, and turn it into a win/win scenario for the industry >> adam, it's tim, thank you for joining us you talked a little bit, i was reading your notes about the repurposes of some of the office buildings for other things like data center. i'm curious your thought on that, and you talk about the debt component for an industry that's worth 30% to 50% less than it was. do you -- at the start, do you think that's where this industry could be in a couple years obviously not all properties, but -- >> yeah, when you look at office, right, it's really been, you know, shocking, right, the level of change that's occurred over the course of the pandemic. initially because of the pandemic, but now you have the sticky uns of this hybrid work from home model. a lot of companies that are determining that it's not enough just to have your work force

working completely remotely, but at the same time, there's difficulty in getting people into the office five days a week, when you have unemployment rates this low as a result, you're seeing a lot of estimates, for example, mackenzie has the steady state occupancy of office getting to 30% below pre-pandemic levels. so, that represents about $800 billion of value destruction in the office space and so, you know, we have these big assets, big buildings, the question becomes, how can we repurpose them to their best use? and so, we actually have a company called soft storage that goes into the basements of places of offices, underutilized spaces and converts it into self-storage facilities and on rates it on behalf of landlords. we think you're going to see this and a slew of other repurposes you can convert some offices to apartments, data center, as you mentioned, logistics and so, i think over the next, call it five years or so, you're going to see more of that repurposes and how technology can be part of that.

>> adam, wasn't enough time, we'll have to have you back. appreciate it. >> always great to be here thank you so much. >> some interesting things coming out of adam here in terms of the view on commercial real estate, repurposes >> repurposes. so, a.i. -- people are terrified of it, but if it makes them more productive in their current job, that's a good thing. look at me learning i'm the poster child of a.i. >> that's right. up next, final trades. the cloud makes it possible to expand your infrastructure. but to make it powerful enough to connect your data wherever it is, you need cdw and netapp. cdw experts will work with you to understand your needs, then customize a netapp cloud services solution to integrate data management for all your clouds, helping you reduce spend, improve security, control data 24/7 and automatically detect anomalies. in the cloud, at least. netapp makes efficient cloud management possible.

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final trade time tim? >> i still believe in this broadening, but i like the industrial sector. i'm long boeing. it's back up near those breakout levels stay there >> chairwoman? >> i agree in the broadening, which is why i like the value stuff. and i'm short the igv, the high flyers >> dan >> i think the relative underperformance of semis is going to remain an issue for the balance of the summer. seller of the smh. >> guy >> gilead, we called him d-day

in college moving into oncology moving lower left to upper right. >> did you really? is that really his nickname? d-day? >> whey would you call him >> i don't know, daniel. thank you for watching "fast money. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple, to make you money. i am here to level the playing field for all investors. i promise i will help you find it. mad money starts right now. hi, i am cramer. i'm not trying to make friends, i'm trying to make money. sir, you cannot always get what you want. sometimes, you get what