musician, he was behind the band he wrote cup their biggest hits, and later collaborated with movies a person loss for me for a generation of people who grew up with robbie robertson. >> i we we can play that song on the way out. thank you, steve "closing bell" starts right now. welcome to "closing bell." i'm mike santoli in for scott wapner this make-or-break hours has the bulls fumbling the ball, unwinding for the morse part, and ongoing pullback in the semiconductor stock as well. the s&p 500 was up 1.3% at the morning highs. we lost one percentage point off that rally just a few minutes we'll hear

from francisco blanch we welcome cal ron causing and keith lerner, both here. good to see you both we can frame this, cameron, as this is perfectly routine, the s&p had a total return of 20% in just, it's very normal if it's a bull mark to have this happen, maybe even something deeper. on the other hand, we haven't benefited from further evidence that maybe we have an economic soft landing

so take your pick. >> i think it's the combination of all those things. we think it's probably right to start asking the question, did he wit the valuation ceilings. they were up 50% from the october lows, so how much further could they run the certain aspect is yes, we've had the earnings beat, but they haven't resulted in earnings revisions higher, soens comer in better than expected, but we're not raising estimates, which help to point to this sidewayings chop >> it's certainly consistent, but you have folks from either side saying we have no landland. it seems as if we might have a reacceleration in the economy, so what does the fed do? that's the fire scenario, but other indicators saying things

are slowing down, a slower pace of job growth, you don't always see a recession coming what should we be afraid of? >> i think we're in that choose your own adventure mode. you can interpret it in two different ways you can say look at the drivers of inflation coming slower, or you ever you can say certainly there are signs you can see of recell recellaration. the question that we still ask, will it result in higher inflation. it doesn't in prior cycles think of 2019 where you had efficiency gains, but we have a very low unemployment rate, and we have this underlying inflation impulse. it's probably the thing that the

market should look out for. >> keith, the risk/reward across stocks, bonds, everything else, how does it look at this stage >> mike, we are strongly neutral, and, you know, you just mentioned the costs we are seeing, and it's not a time to be on offense or defense, but be patient. if you think about why did we have such a run-up, we beat on the earnings side, we beat on the economy, and now that bar has raised the question is, what is the catalyst but it didn't have a big bang historically so then you're seeing the technology sector kind of tread water as well, so i think we'll be a bit unexciting, and being patient makes sense. >> i get the idea that the bar has been raised. once everybody acknowledges the technology is in decent shape,

it takes more than just confirmation of that perhaps to get the market going on the other hand, the market was acting like a bull market for several months coming into this space usually the moment people get bullish is not when it fails, so i wonder how much there is to feed off of through this choppy period later in this year just because things are as we expected them to be. >> that's a good point having bullishness is a positive you need more of that to see of trend up side, but the flows basically flags for equities, so it's not by any stretch, but you're seeing people getting negative more quickly, even today so far we've seen the market pull back so far hold that, so i think that's something near term up to key off of.

>> i think we keep talking about how we crossed 4500 the last sick sessions, so whether that means we're sticky in this area or it's taking a lot of energy to tread water here. that's the debate that has no answer except for, we'll see cam cam cameron, arguably a month ago you might have said it would be curtains for the s&p 500 >> yeah, we have certainly seen the rotation has been able to offset the weakness in the prior leadership, meaning you've seen strengths off cyclical sectors energy is rallying, a lots of strength in the industrials, even pockets in the materials. so that's supportive i think it is important that we watch tech it got very overbought into the

end of july. that's usually a sign that you need to digest the question is now we're below the 50-day, can we get back above it, or do we need to digest even more of these gains, which means we could say in this sideways chop for some time. >> that zone takes us back to late june, a lot of folks framing out saying that will test this. do you think that a likelihood, or do we have to say that would be normal? >> it would be normal during any bull market, mostly in a weaker seasonal stretch, which is what august and september is. the other interesting point about 4328, that was the august high from 2022 so for the health of this advance we've had, what we would like to see is prior resistance turn into support for this

market so i think that's a really important line in the sand to watch. >> of course, august of last year, when we hit those highs, keith, was when powell at jackson hole was saying we're not close yet where rates have to go. now? within a rounding error, we seem to be kind of done, or at least for now done we'll see what happens what is the fixed-income part of the equakes. the ten-year is at 408 again, we have a lot of attention on the treasury supply, but is there anything else one of to be concerned about? >> above 4%, we think the risk/reward is a more balanced portfolio. the way i look at the forward earnings estimate, they're actually at eight-month highs, so to me that's what we want to

watch. the next news will be more talk from washington, the shutdown potentially, and something will come up that shakes the market near term we're pretty much at a standstill between the bulls and the bears. you know, it is what it is >> i think i've seen some interpre interpretations to april, well, last year was not about a reset. therefore we're kind of late cycle, like a 2019 instant yor, where the market was chronically looking expensive as it kept going up. >> with very low volatility the entire time. the difference from 2019, we had a fed pivot, we had the fed

cutting interest rates into a 50-year low unemployment that was unprecedented at that time now what we have is the anticipation of a set pivot. what we see is there's still about almost 150 basis points of cuts priced into 12024 into early 2025 do those materialize if they don't, will the market care it hasn't cared in the first half will it care in the second half? >> i know you both have emphasized areas of the market away from the very large equal-weighted i know there's constitutionally some disagreement whether that's a real valuation number, but nonetheless, what does look like a reasonable risk/reward in the market >> with valuations, we know

there's no saying, but i think if you want to me what's one of the more attractive sectors is industrial, i think cameron used to be an industrials analyst, if i remember correctly, two sectors have made new highs. that's how industrials long-term leadership i think all this stimulus that are ongoing is a real positive we're seeing better action, so a bit more constructive there, and i think tech will be just fine i think it's just recenting on a big run-up >> i do sometimes like when the market is in this indecisive zone and it's kind of frustrating for both sides after a few weeks of this, people start to search for the

next thing to worry about. one of those things this week, okay, credit card debt in aggregate is at a trillion dollars, a record. so people have a sense maybe we're getting spend out. on the other hand, it's exactly where it probably should be long-term trend-wise are there major macro things that you're saying, nobody is looking a this enough. we probably should be worried about it or aware of what it could mean >> we are continuing to watch credit you've seen credit spreads continuing to come in, but you are starting to see signs of defaults picking up. you have had delinquencies with credit cards starting to move up they're still below 2019 pre-covid levels, but they are driving up rapidly we could say it's not at the point where it's stressful

nowhere near where it was prior to the great financial crisis, but it is worth watching >> and, keith, in terms of things like financials, which we used to think was a bellwether, but hasn't really behaved that way, are there other parts of the market >> energy is looking more attractive i think real estate is really still the bottom of the barrel we know commercial real estate is still a big story i think energy is more of a place to look at >> great to talk with you both thank you so much. let's get to our question of the day. we want to know, has today's cpi -- we'll share the results

later this hour. let's get a check on top stocks to watch. seema mody is here with that. >> hey, mike, let's start with six flags. earnings coming in short of consensus. however, it does plan to spend more on upgrading the parks across the nation. the ceo on the conference call saying or dna at the end is thrill rides and we have to go back and reinvest in rides a.i. software company applovin crediting the new marketing tool that's helping customers' return on investment. the stock has tripled, and d.a. davidson sees more opportunity from 32 to $40 a share mike >> seema, thank you.

we are just getting started. up next, drilling down on oil, the energy space seeing steady gains lately xle is up more than 10% in the next three months. our next case will make his case for oil, after the break. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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welcome back shares of plug power plunging today. pippa stevens has what is behind that move. >> yes, it's tracking for its worth days in more than three years, after it posted a larger

than expected loss, but it's the guidance weighing on the stock today. it pushed out targets for facilities in about three to six months, meaning the majority of the green hydrogen network will probably reach part of its capacity in 2024 higher costs as they ramp up new facilities, which declined overover over. the stock is now at 70% below the 52-week high noticing that the scar tissue built up over the past quarters, still, the firm reiterated its outperform rating. plus they cut the stock to a neutral rating down 16% mike >> pippa, thanks so much the broader energy space has been recently outperforming, however. as crude and natural gas prices try to regain some momentum.

joining us is head of global commodities research, francisco blanch >> thanks for having me. >> the first step is what has crude prices firming up recently in terms of the macro, and then also what might be happening on the supply/demand front. i think we've had two main courses divergen, on the one hand, and on the other we had opec essentially curtailing supply, which is a very different macro cycle, historically oil prices, when they started to come down and crashed, the fed would cut rates, and opec would cut production, and we'll see a trend emerging from that defense has been hiking, opec has been cutting production

preemptively, so if you like, we ended up with the two main rowers of this boat going in different directions, so the boat has been spinning peak rates i think has been a factor to help encourage into the market the second factor has been russia russia, which for much of the past nine months has been maximizing exported volumes, and really doing what saudi arabia was doing cutting back supplies. it realigned itself with opec plus, and peak rates, lower russian volumes finally starting to bring people back into the market, and you see it very much so in the price of russian oil, which has gone up $13, $14 above the actual price gap set by russia and europe. >> where do you think that takes us in terms of where brent

prices might get to this year? >> i think we have more up side working from $19 a barrel average for next year, heading into year end, and i think one big factor that could push it higher, of course is china that's perhaps another big driver of this market. again, we talk about rates, saudi arabian cuts, and russian cuts, but what will china do we saw them falling into deflation this week, will we see something emerging to take care of the assets under water? i think that could take us higher than $90 a barrel if we see that the saudis could unwind the so-called lollipop cut, if prices do shoot up, but

balancing items there, i think the messaging this week has been more on the constructive side than not, so i think we'll probably under up overshooting a bit before some of those cuts are reversed and definitely we are watching china to see what comes out from a similar perspective. just to get your hit on natural gas as well. obviously there's a lot of momentum these are not necessarily alarming absolute price levels it just the weather effect are there other supply issues we are concerned about again in europe >> there's a bit of both, mike there's the element of weather, stream heat. these events will lead to stream movement the other issue is, if you lose supply in gas, we're going to

have a tight european gas market a lot of it has been driven by supply loss potentially in australia. we've also seen the emergence of a gas floor driven very much by china. china again moved away from the gas market last year when prices spiked globally, but it's come back in as prices reverted so the chinese are buying as an attractive gas for china, even though it's expensive for north america. to my that's a price floor the u.s. price will also be connected to a global gas export market through the lng export channels i do expect stronger gas prices for sure >> all right we look for that francisco, appreciate it

thank you. up next, the big streaming battle, it's not just disney looking to charge more for its content. what company is upping the price tag after the break. later. gm and ford are dipping into the session, how it might impact the broader spay "closing bell" will rht ba ckbeig businesses need 5g solutions today. that's why they choose t-mobile for business. mlb partners with t-mobile to

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welcome back, the nfl is heading into the second year of its streaming, and it's shaking things up. they're adding new live kept in the direct-to-consumer product it's adding live coverage of nfl network to the base plan, and then hiking that price by $2 a month to 699

the nfl plus premiums are getting red zone and price of that tier is increasing by $5 to $14.99 this also as the league is focused on streaming, this season marks the first with sunday ticket on youtube tv, and second season with thursday night games on amazon. this also gives fans another way to access live content without a paid tv subscription it shows yet another threat to the tv bundle. of course, another price increase for another streaming service after yesterday disney asan antonioed $3 price hikes. guys, i'm calling this trend stream stream-flation. >> it's certainly feeding into everybody's cynical thought we're getting a version of the cable bundle inflation back in terms of these one-off products.

this one has a certain selection of their games and content sold directly this way, others are accounted for by rights to sunday ticket and other networks could a person just take one and have everything, on you do you have to still knit it together >> the interesting thing if you paid for a tv bundle, you got all the nfl you wanted, but now you can add the sunday ticket piece, but now if you want all those regular games, you also need amazon prime video, so it's interesting to see how they figured out how to monetize their games and the really dedicated fans base, but for consumers there's a question to figure out where your game is going to be. that's one factor that may have

put pressure on the thursday night game ratings of the amazon games the past year. >> that does make sense. just on the trend of people pushing price increasing through from streamers, it's interest what bob iger suggested by widening the spread between the add-free tier and the add-supported tier it makes a lot of sense, actually, to have people pay up for no commercials, then you open that market for a mass audience to sell advertising again. >> yeah, absolutely. to have no commercials, you'll have more people opt in, and the revenue stream again, all of this seems like it's going back to what's on the is new again, reminds me a lot of the cable tv days we're seeing more of the rebundling as well my new word of the day is stream-flation i think we'll see more of it. >> you have now staked your

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stocks just off session lows after the s&p 500 gave up a 1.3% rally following july's cpi print today. my next guest confirms that inflation is still on a downward trend and the fed can take the rest of the year off ed, i don't know that they'll immediately say that they're taking the rest of the year off, but it's certainly in wait-and-see mode, and i guess ear not afraid we'll get to a sticky place, and the fed will have to tighten things more? >> i think we're past the sticky side of things if you look at the cpi headline inflation rate, excluding shelter, which includes that

annoying component called rent, we get a 2% increase year-over-year basis if you look at the core rate, and then take out shelter, you get 2.5% so we're below 3% on these kind of measures, so it's all up to shelter. shelter has been sticky, but it's coming down, because it's starting to rereflect the fact that inflation on new leases has come down sharply. >> it's true i've heard others talk about 4.4% annualized wage growth, and diesel costs can get passed along, however, all of that being the case, has the market already kind of gotten to that spot where it's assuming that the fed is just about done and we have this soft landing in

place, or is there more up side to be gathered from that become confirmed? >> mike, i've been forecasting 4600 on the s&p 500 by year end. we got there on july 31st. so we got there about five months early now what do i do i don't feel like it's appropriate to raise my target here valuations are stretched i do want to see earnings kind of catch up with the market. i think we're going to be kind of trading around this left just below 4600 through year end, and then i think we have another good year next year, but for now i think the market has discounted the likelihood that the fed has finished raising interest rates for now, and inflation will continue to moderate and the economy will continue to hang in there pretty well >> it is remarkable, given that, you know, one month into the third quarter, you have the realtime atlanta fed estimate

pushing 4% nobody really accepts that on its face however, even with that, you have plenty of folks saying deceleration is observable elsewhere, and, you know, we've got under 200,000 jobs last month. in other words, the recession call has mostly been deferred and not taken off the table. does that make sense at this stage? >> i think you have fewer economists predicting a recession, but you're right. we're not out of the woods yet the fact is the fed has raised short-term rates by over 500 basis points mortgage rates are back up over 7%, so there's still restrictive policies out there, and we saw that in the moody's downgrade of the banks, and we've seen it the sloos. so credit conditions will keep the economy from booming here,

but i don't think we'll go in a recession. i think we've been in a rolling recession and now we're seeing a bit of a rolling recovery, particularly ins goods sector. i think the worst of the recession in goods is behind us, and from here on, consumers will probably be more even in their spending they've gone on a buying binge in services, and i think services slows, picks up, and i think the consumer continue to say spend. consumer spending as the fed survey you mentioned, is tracking at 3.5% i think a lot of that, as steve liesman said, is because the june numb terr ended on a strong note these are legitimate numbers. >> yeah, certainly the b of a credit card numbers were pretty good as well i'd like to ask you, though, for you, like i, remember the mid

'90s soft landing. it seemed as if it was considered unlikely is people didn't think inflation could get down below 6% or 5% without versus a massive inflation have we learned something similar in terms of how inflation can stay low and have the fed do what it has to do i mean, i'm just wondering structural, if anything has been taught to us >> yay, i think this is another soft landings, growth recessions, whatever you want to call it, but it's reminiscent of what happened in the mid 1980s we've been through this before, and it's -- it beats going into a hard landing i think the economy has proven once again to be quite res

resilient. i think folks forget to focus on how stimulative fiscal policy has been, and consumers may run out of the excess savings, but meanwhile, the labor market has been strong. 180,000 is pretty good it's going back to normal. i wouldn't mind more normal up ahead here exactly. you know, slow and steady, nothing wrong with that. >> absolutely. ed, thanks very much we'll talk soon. >> thank you, mike. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked -- we'll bring you the results right after this break

the index is losing some further ground the s&p down one seventh of 1% seema? >> we have our eyes on dillard's after a smashing earnings estimates. those results are fueling the stock today with shares up over 10%. this would be dillard's best day since last october elsewhere sonos is lower, reporting a nayoer than expected loss per share it says market conditions have returned to normal with soft consumer demand in several regions. the shares are off by roughly 6% at this hour mike let's get the results of our question of the day.

a chance of a rate cut, is it back in play the majority saying no, suggesting that the fed will not be in cut mode next year as some of the market pricing implies. up next a luxury major merger. we'll break down those moves and what this could immediate for the rest of high-end retailers that and much more as we take you inside the market zone the citi custom cash℠ card automatically adjusts

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with in a. >> hey there, michael. the supreme court is putting on hold the bankruptcy reorganization of opioid maker purdue npharma, this is from a quarterback of t-- complaint fro the biden administration they could be protected here as part of the deal the biden administration didn't like that. the sack her family was able to extract about $11 billion for protect that as part of the deal now the supreme court is saying the bankruptcy reorganization will be put on hold. not clear where we go from here. it's not likely to get a final resolution until make next year, because the supreme court will put it into their regular calendar to see what they'll ultimately decide.

the bankruptcy decision for the pharmaceutical manufacturer is now on hold, mike. >> interesting turn in that story. eamon, thank you joe terranova is here to break down the crucial moments, and courtney regan, and phil lebeau on the sell-off on ford and gm shares. hello to you all kind of the gears slipping in all of this. it feels like some of the intraday declines have been picked up. what do you make of the churn? >> we seem to have a pattern where any rally attempt is being met with sellers, and clearly post the 30-year auction at 1:00 p.m., we saw the long end of the curve. equities fall back, you know, mike, people can talk ad nauseam

about the fact you can replace the leadership, but can you really we haven't done that in the last ten days clearly, and it looks like the price wants to go down and shake the hand of the moving average. 50 days off 4432, it's about time we touch it. >> the yield pressure, do you feel it's we're recognizing there's a lot of supply out here >> i think there's two dynamics. there is the increase in issuance, clearly leading to a bit of nervousness it's less about the fitch downgrade, but there's this dynamic. the asset management industry wants to get longer duration hedge fund speculators they're short treasuries, so you have a bit of this battle going on that's playing out at a time that's seasonally weak period of equities, so you're going to see a lot of intraday volatility in the bond market.

>> tapestry announcing today it will acquire capri for $8.5 billion. a luxury brand bringing several under the umbrella take a listen. >> it was very clear that capri represented a strategic fit for our portfolio. it's in a resilient category we play in, a $200 billion category to apparel, footwear, and complementary brands, so that's important. >> on paper, courtney, you have two companies that were both collections of brands concerned of roll off. makes sense perhaps to put them together what's the main takeaway >> i think that's right, mike. those i talk to think this makes sense. consumers most likely won't be

able to tell up of the difference in the end. they're all sort of different unique brands and all have some synergies maybe at the top of the parent company obviously shares moving in opposite directions. the acquirer, tapestry is down, cap capri is higher. tapestry in the past has not had the greatest track record when it comes to integrating brands they struggled with a bit when they acquired kate spade, and they stumbled over some reply chain issues however, it's worth noting that was a different management team that is in place currently at tapestry they are forecasting $200 million in sinynergisynergies, n large, it makes sense.

i think. >> translator: unique benefits that each can give to one another that perhaps capri did not really fully capitalize on after aquick the versace brand. >> and happens at a good premium. so clearly there was a bit of a struggle that was implied. courtney, thank you very much. let's bring in phil on gm and ford what seems to be behind the declines, phil >> i think it's the general concern over the looming uaw contract ending in september and the possibility of a lengthy and costly uaw strike. there was no immediate catalyst today, both of these took moving down when you look at the demands for the next contract, it's clear they are way far apart from

where gm and ford and stelantis will be. it's going to be costly. they also want a 32-hour workweek, job guarantees the bottom like is, when you look at these three companies, they're facing the prospects of what could be a lengthy and costly strike come mid september, at least where the rhetoric is right now, mike. >> for sure. phil, thank you. joe, we're also celebrating a softening up of used car prices you have borrowing rates up as well >> i think there's a lot of concerns on both gm and ford t gm has wanted to cut costs, ford is shedding head count, so these two companies have to fates a

lot of conditions that management has to deal with, and that's the return of union worker leverage. u.p.s. in 15 days conceded to what the workers wanted. it's about better wages, better security, better benefits, and the car makers will have to deal with that. mike, really, what is the price return on gm and ford in the last ten years almost nothing on the total return, you go ahead a different, maybe up 20%, 30%, but that's really is. >> the stocks almost trade like equity stubs on the big debt load and maybe some option value on the ev market to broaden it out to the overall tape here. the indexes seem inclined to go down and do some testing what does that really imply in terms of the velocity?

>> i think the buy the dip mentality should be in place, and will be in place for me personally intraday today, energy prices hit their high for the year. they reversed. that should have been good news, but the treasury yield washed that away, if you will we're thinking about jackson hole now, what is the guidance going to be there? remember what it did to the market last year, so, again, halfway through the third quarter, which is a seasonally weakest quarter, but i don't think it defeats the overall trend we created. >> what would it take? i think the s&p 500 can go down to 4200. people would probably doubt that. >> i think there would be a lot of doubters. i think you want to be a borrower there, like oil prices spiking significantly, or some tensions flaring up in the

world. joe, thanks very much. we do have the indexes going out with very modest gains s&p 500 essentially flat that's going to do it for "closing bell. we'll send it into "overtime" with morgan. well, the dow nearly erasing a 455-point gain, that's the scorecard on wall street welcome to "closing bell" "overtime. jon fortt is off today by nygren opens hi playbook with the top value picks. he'll join us in just a moment later, we will talk exclusively with the ceo of virgin galactic, which just completed the second commercial space flight and the first that including