that he knows that even though his mother is not there, she loved him more than anything. [theme music] ♪ good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines ubs shares pop as the lender tears away the government safety net saying it has already repaid billions in emergency loans issued after the takeover of collapsed rival credit suisse. and uk gdp grows by 2% with upward pressure to continue hiking rates to cool down the british economy pushing sterling

and gilt yields higher. the soft july u.s. inflation print sees the highest week as markets now decide the fed is all but done with hiking rates. and x corp's linda yaccarino has full autonomy and tells cnbc in the exclusive interview that major advertisers are returning to the platform. >> as we go through the plan that it stuck with us and brands coming back. >> are they coming back? >> coca-cola, visa, state farm c they're coming back. good morning welcome to "street signs." it is friday i'm going to bring you breaking news that we have from the monthly report this is the oil report i'll bring you the major

headlines which have come through. mainly the iea says global oil demand is still set to expand by 2.2 million barrels a day in 2023 that is steady from the previous forecast world oil demand will hit a record 103 million barrels per day in june and august could see another peak that is interesting. they have, however, lowered the 2024 global oil demand forecast to 1 million barrels per day that is down 150,000 barrels per day. small adjustment there on the supply side, global oil supply plunged by 910,000 barrels per day in july due to the sharp reduction in the saudi output the saudis have extended production cuts by another month until september of 1 million barrels per day. on russia, iea says russian oil

exports held steady at 1.76 million barrels bets per day in. and opec plus states oil levels could draw in the third quarter and 1.2 million in the fourth quarter with the risk of driving prices still higher. there you have it. luckily, we have someone with us to tell us more about the report the head of the oil market division from the international energy agency. wonderful to see you thank you for joining us i'll start with the first sentence of the report which caught my attention. world oil demand is scaling record highs to me, that feels a bit at odds with the mood and sentiment on the ground we hear about the falters chinese economy and macro headwinds. you say this report is seeing world record highs >> good morning. it is true

we hear concerns about the world economic climate in june, we had oil demand at the all-time high at 103 million barrels. we expect further gains in august and the end of the year china is driving the growth this year in global oil demand. 1.6 million barrels a day of growth from china alone out of the more than 70% of the total we're seeing recovery in air traffic. it was expected, but growth is slowing, of course, next year, as inflation and higher interest rates are feeding into the real economy. we're expecting only 1 million barrels a day growth in 2024 of

the -- 2024. >> reading through the report, china oil demand is resilient. the 270,000 barrels per day ahead of the forecast. you upgraded the growth to 1.6 million barrels per day. the numbers and demand mcconnelmccocoming from china is still strong >> very strong indeed all year since the reopening of china at the start of the year. chinese oil demand has surprised to the upside. we have increased the forecast almost monthly we're seeing the latest numbers with very strong growth from the petrol chemical sector we are seeing chinese chemical demand growing 1 million barrels a day. this is coming at the expense of lower operating rates as producers in europe and petrol chemical industry under pressure from increased inputs through china. >> talk about the russian

shipment you have held the forecast steady the output coming through from russia steady and it is at the highest level since the war began. what weelse are you seeing on te ground >> we see russian exports were 7.3 million barrels since june t. i -- june it is down from august it will cut 300,000 barrels per day in september we are now seeing exports falling off to some extent this is due, as you may have seen, russian oil prices are now above the price cap set by the g7 coalition that means the maritime services cannot be used to transport russian oil to other buyers. this is tightening up the tanker markets somewhat we are seeing the drone strikes

on infrastructure in the black sea last week increasing the war risk premium on exports. we expect declines from the russian exports in august and september. going forward, we have to see how russia is able to find buyers for its oil. >> zooming out again and let me bring you the numbers you put out in the report. global oil demand is set to expand by 2.2 million barrels per day this year. global supply is expected to expand to 1.5 million barrels per day. doing simple arithmetic here, there should be a deficit of 700,000 barrels per day with the increase in demand and supply you are showing. would that lead to more tightening in the market >> exactly this is what our report is showing. if the opec plus targets, the

main play toward the end of the year and 2024, we expect global oil demand to exceed available supplies which is why we are warning that the market is tightening we see that in global inventories which are falling fast at the moment and contributing to the export push on prices. we are seeing in the third quarter a deficit of more than 2 million barrels per day and 1.2 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter if we don't see higher supplies from the opec plus group or outside coalition. >> have been cutting production which is a unilateral decision is it your expectations they are building spare capacity and may start increasing production toward the end of the year with the dynamics you highlighted >> there is certainly room for that with oil demand rising and prices rising, there is scope

for opec plus to increase production and saudi arabia to unwind the reduction it has in place now through september. >> now, i want to ask you about non-opec plus oil supply as well another line in the report stood out to me saying non-opec plus supply equalled opec plus supply for the first time ever which is interesting. does that tell you that going forward that perhaps the swing factor with the price of oil is not necessarily just opec plus you have to look the entire producers and the u.s. plays a significant role >> yes opec plus production is down by july, it was down 2 million barrels per day compared to the start of the year. non-opec plus production was up nearly the same amount going from the difference

between the two groups of almost 4 million barrels a day, there is production of 50 million barrels a day for both opec plus and non-opec plus. we are expecting the biggest s source of growth we are seeing record production in brazil. brazilian production is up 500,000 barrels a day compared to a year ago. we see growth from norway and canada the growth is expected to slow toward the end of the year we're seeing the slowdown in drilling activity in the united states and feeding to output we are expecting growth in the united states to slow from 800,000 barrels a day this year to half that next year as we move forward and into the medium term, we expect opec plus to increase market share, but

for now, it is non-opec plus taking the share as opec cuts production. >> fascinating thank you for joining us on the show today the head of the oil markets division from the iea. coming up on "street signs," ubs removed the swiss government backstop adding it is confident about the costs related to the credit suisse takeover we'll discuss more after the break.

welcome back to the show we are checking on the markets and i'm blending in the wall behind me with all of the red. the stoxx 600 is down .80% the focus yesterday was the cpi print from the u. coming in lower than expectations. this is really crystal izing th case in the u.s. people are beginning to dial down the interest rate hikes all of that being positive for momentum the hand over from asia is weak.

for us on the weakness from the chinese data which has come out with the property issues with the real estate sector coming into europe, the hand over was not pretty. hang seng is down .80% we have gone through more and more of the earnings season and in terms of the individual boards, this is the picture. all of them are down 1%. dax down .70%. the banks are having a relatively better day today. remember, we started off the week talking about the arbitrary italian banking tax imposed by the government which brought adverse reaction to the stocks they are beginning to gain ground ftse mib is down .80%. the cac 40 is down 1%. luxury continues to be in focus there. deals going through yesterday with tapestry and michael kors will that have a knock-on

effect yesterday's reaction was positive in the uk, down 1% a lot of focus on the macro data that uk gdp number came in better than expected we will unpack that more on the show in a little bit in terms of sectors, telco is green, but barely above the flat line on the flip side, travel continues to under perform down 1.3%. as oil prices tick higher, that will impact the travel sector. real estate also lower today down 1.3%. we are seeing an upward move in yields it is related. basic resources, minors coming off in today's session as well the main story we have been following overnight is the news of ubs the bank has removed the protection agreement with the swiss government and swiss national bank concerned that the taxpayers will no longer bear

the risk ubs is confident it will bear the costs and financial impact of credit suisse integration on its own. it repaid all extraordinary liquidity support created by the emergency law. the 9 billion swiss franc backstop was created earlier this year. the reaction is positive ubs trading at 20 swiss francs ubs continues to focus on the successful integration of credit suisse it has a lot of work to do with the value of the acquisition it will provide more information on the process as part of the second quarter earnings out later this month on august 31st. i'll be there. former ubs uk group told cnbc this morning that removing the

backstop was inevitable and mad sense from the strategic point of view. >> the risk looks like it is less profound than it was over the rescue weekend this is a proven and sendasible thing to do. keep in mind, those in switzerland owho opposed this deal, found the facts of the government and swiss national bank offered these indemnities of a number of objectaionable things to complain about and that is helpful in the political sense as well as the economic one we just talked about >> let's bring in a good friend of the show. chairman of the advisers good morning, brad i remember, myself and geoff, in zurich talking through the

implications of the deal there was backlash many said be on the hook for hundreds of millions of swiss francs now the decision he will not have to lean on the backstop that is reassuring to not just investors, but to the swiss public as well, isn't it >> i think the big winner from this is ubs and ubs shareholders for sure the termination of this is perfect timing and makes sense and absolutely expected. it is a real win-win situation for ubs on one side and swiss politicians on the other side. the indication is clearly visible dtoday with the stock u. i think that is positive

ubs has the freedom to rein in without a lot of political interference then the goodwill in the population and they will announce a more painful part of the story and some closing branches across switzerland and, of course, laying off people for the politicians, it is also very, very convenience to have good news here in summer and the reason, of course, the federal elections in october it is good to get that out of the way. of course, we should not forget this in the furs irst place of it was the management of

kristina and credi suisse they also are looking to address the situation before they had to do it over the emergency weekend. the stock price is the story it is positive i think as a result, ubs is positioned for further gains >> a lot of lessons to be gleaned from what happened very clear what you are saying about the main winner and beneficiary being credit suisse. if i want to put on my critical thinking hat, there is one perspective out there. the fact that ubs is coming out with the announcement in the effort to produce goodwill toward the firm before they

report on august 31st, some people are saying othis could b part in parcel in an evidefforto keep the swiss domestic bank there were authorities talking about tearing away the swiss bank away from the entity. perhaps by going ahead and preempting the political backlash in that front, they are putting that story to rest they can do whatever they want to do with the combined entity >> absolutely. i think the main benefit here for ubs and the class is that they can announce the taxpayer is off the hook and made them money. that is one message. the second message is it is up to the board of ubs and executive board to implement a

strategy to maximize here in terms of efficiency with integration of credit suisse that is already happening and in switzerland, i remain convinced that this will happen and nothing much will be left from credit suisse. >> we spoke about the august 31st results you mentioned you are expecting the less favorable announcements to come. what are you expecting in terms of restructuring we are getting piecemeal information. what more can come on august 31st >> the investment bank of credit

suisse with the ultimate reason why it failed and there is a lot of du kup duplication there's a lot of overcapacity. then, management is a big plus then in swiss business, retail and banking, that is step by step they will have pretty much a free hand and that is also in it's sense positive and indication of the equity price i have a positive out of here because ubs got a deal of historic proportion with being able to acquire credit suisse in

that short-term marriage and now it is creating value integration and carefully planned that and now executing it so far, so good. i think the outlook is positive. the public interest in the political class will digest whatever comes here by the end of august. >> when the deal was announced, one of the controversial decisions which was taken by the regulator was to write down the at-1 bonds we were talking about the risk premium of swiss financial assetsasse s. we're a couple months on what is the decision as to write down the at-1 bonds? 12k3w >> the capital markets i mentioned. i think that is being digested

in that sense that this is seen as a one-time event and it is a solution i don't expect too much there. of course, very clear. it was very unusual. huge gift to ubs they cannot be blamed for that of course, the federal regulator who basically failed already to address the declining situation of credit suisse and didn't really makes friends with this position and didn't make friends with the regulator in particular i think that is a bit of the legacy that's the situation right now >> the market was able to move on do you have a target on where ubs stock could get?

>> i'm not in the business of targeting prices i clearly think ubs, through this very advantageous position, and now the execution of the integration and then as a result, the combined business is probably the best positioned bank in europe it depends also on the attractive valuation and if the management over the next week really makes the effort to act in terms of profitability. then i think it is in the best position in the european banking landscape. >> a great place to leave it beat wittman, chairman of porta

advisers. coming up on "street signs," gilt yields after gdp blows through expectations after cpi data for july comes in softer than expected. we're talking markets when we come back.

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welcome back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines ubs shares pop as the lender tears away the 9 billion swiss franc loan and it has paid back the millions after the collapse of credit suisse uk gdp is stronger than expected for the second quarter growing by 0.2% upping the pressure on the bank of england to continue hiking rates to cool down the british economy pushing sterling and gilt yields higher. running out of steam the iea lowers the oil demand forecast next year, but ahead, concerns over china are overblown. >> chinese oil demand has surprised to the upside. we increased the forecast almost

monthly and we're seeing the latest numbers with very strong growth linda yaccarino insists she has full autonomy and ceo of the elon musk owned company. she tells cnbc that major advertisers are returning to the platform >> i can go back to world cup and go back to the brands which stuck with us and brands coming back. >> are they coming back? >> coca-cola, visa, state farm is a huge partner. they're coming back. the uk economy posted 0.2% growth in the second quarter surprising the economists and avoiding saturation. the performance was held by monthly gain of 0.5% in june which was above expectations the chancellor of the ex-chequer

says this is laying the growth for the economy. we saw a bounds whe-- bounce. still shy of the highs we got to about a month ago when we scaled to 132 for gilts,gilts, we have seen a selloff. the five-year gilts are trading at 4.45. ten-year gilt up eight basis points on the day trading at 4.45 as well the steep eening of the yield curve. a sharp reaction this morning. let's get out to arabile who is standing by and been looking through the numbers. it is surprising how strong the june number was. may was so weak. perhaps some of the month on month increase in june is due to

technical factors. >> reporter: it is, joumanna you know, one has to look at that and it is clearly that if you take a look at the retail numbers, that gave you a sense of how weak things were in the month of may as well you had retail at 0.5 in april may was 0.1% yes, growth, but lower 0.7% for fine. there was growth and progress from the sense of positivity that is why the gdp number is in positive territory for the three months particularly for june coming out at 0.5%. it offers a little bit of joy for particularly the bank of england and 10 downing street as they want things to get better avoiding recession is the aim at this point in time while trying to alleviate the factors hurting the economy with inflation at

7.9% is the figure for now for inflation. the uk economy will not take joy from the figure, but it is dropping off from the double digit numbers. this print gives you a clear indication while it is a service economy, 0.2%, doesn't bode well for the economy like this. to do have production and construction and manufacturing managing to head higher. more than 1% gains across all of those as well in the month of june giving a clear indication there is juice in the economy. avoiding that recession, even if it is the latter part of this year, into next year, is critical the imf said uk will avoid recession, but how much of that stagflation still comes into play now stagnant growth is very important. just missing when it comes to the data point and how much more can it continue to do so

the uk is set to be 0.8% above pre-pandemic levels. the national institute of economic and social research says it will take a year before the uk is actually back to pre-pandemic levels. on the numbers basis, they already are at this point. how do you ensure consumers feel that way the price of ordinary goods and services are not back to the levels according to the national institute of economic and social research they believe there are five years that have been taken away for the uk and consumers and that is why the gdp numbers are critical and important and what they will be like for the remainder of the year. second quarter is certainly a surprise a lot more positive than some anticipated. some also say that actually when you take a look at the data, even the pmi was getting better over the last three months or so at least it stayed within with some positive territory aiding

the pickup in the uk economy for the three-month basis. it is the six months where you are seeing some levels where growth was 0.2% or less on a quarter by quarter basis it does give you a sense there isn't too much growth. 0.4% projection for this year does certainly help when you aren't seeing yourselves to be in recession following on from last september we have seen the treasury minister make note when he came into office, he thought that things were worse for wear they were headed to the dreaded recession. now, they have turned things around significantly joumanna, it will be all about where to from here those numbers are critical and how, then, does the continued increase in rates as well as the

fixed rate morning mortgages imt spending for the year. >> arabile, thank you for the overview headline u.s. inflation came in softer than expected in july. consumer prices rose 3.2% on the annual basis that was up from 3% in june. a far cry from the peak of 9.1% last year. core cpi, which excludes food and energy, has the smallest back-to-back gain in years that was held by the drop in annual energy prices and food and shelter still remains sticky inflation data is one of the key metrics the fed will weigh in on deciding interest rates. nearly 90% of market participants expect the fed will hold at the september meeting. happy to say we have the head of the fixed income for ubs is joining us wonderful to have you with us. let's start with the data

yesterday. lower than market expectations it feels market participants think the fed is done with the hiking cycle if they are, what ramifications will that have on the asset class here >> it would be a positive. the asset class hasn't received a significant inflow this year and for a fairly long period because there were concerns the fed would continue hiking. once the fed is done, we do believe that innput s will come back to the marnkets >> we are at the heights of the year there has been a lot of appetite to own this part of the market there hasn't been inflows coming in can that continue? >> joumanna, that is a great question the reality is the market is inn

-- investment grade in the markets. >> some examples >> mexico and sovereign dollar denominated. indonesia with the dollar denominated debt they trade more like u.s. investment grade and offer attractive pickups there are pockets in the high-yield sector, but stress emerging market dollar denominated sovereign debt which are at historical heights with the rally they had this year and we think those are great opportunities for those who are looking for high yielding assets >> before we get into the specific plays, i want to ask about china and the visibility you have on what is going on there. the two main drivers of growth that we 2typically lean on, on both fronts, they are faltering. what does that do to emerging market investing complex in that

part of the world? >> that is another important factor we need to look at to drive more inflows china used to have an impact on the commodity prices they used to be high despite the weakness in china. we think the market was overly pessimistic about chinese growth right now. the bureau meeting acknowledged the weakness in growth and commitment to the policy which we believe will fall in the coming weeks that is not going to overly stimulate the way it used to in the past, but stabilize growth in china going forward i think the real estate sector will be an important part of that. >> what do you think of the same countries with the bond sn payments >> that is the issue in the real estate sector. those are the things that need to be resolved they have to have measures to

stimulate demand in addition to that, we believe the government has to assist in providing a level of liquidity to real estate firms during this period period >> do you think the pessimism is priced in? >> that is correct absolutely. >> in trading, it is always what is priced in to these markets. >> you are spot-on >> so i want to ask about your specific calls one of the countries, i may be biassed because i have links, is argentina argentina. there is an election coming up i wonder why you want to own country with the payments? >> it is what you said earlier it is priced in. the reality is any candidate who

gets elected in the upcoming elections will have a better policy mix than the current government there will be improvement on the policy side which is not reflected in prices yesterday which are trading at depressed levels that is the premise for argentina. we think there is a possibility they amay restructure again. >> is that a consensus heading into the election? there is a view to have a change of leadership. >> it is hard to know in argentina. we think there is a level of opt optimism >> one other call that stuck out to me from the notes and i would not usually go here on the show, but it is significant in the last 24 hours. ecuador. we had the tragic issue with the leading candidate with the state

of emergency there with that death. the country has been setback by drug lords and heightened emotions going into the elections as we witnessed yesterday. why is this a country you want to own >> very tragic events in the last couple days it goes back to the original premise. we like ecuador. any upcoming administration in ecuador will have to make tackling crime a priority. there is no room for error as far as the economic policy is concerned. despite all of the populous rhetoric you hear and pre-election situation which is always the case in emerging markets, we do believe that any candidate who takes over will follow better policies than what the market is pricing in right now because they will have other priorities >> when i was at the imf meetings a couple of months

back, one wof the issues that came up with the lower countrie debt coming off a period where the dollar was stronger which put many countries in a difficult position going forward, are we likely to see increase in the structure policies of the low-income countries or is the worst over >> we have a non -consensus views. these countries are enacting policies that are macro and enacting structure signing up tf program. they are tackling the problem that you mentioned and the prices are not reflecting improvement in the policy back drop we think that is an opportunity. this has been a great time for many of the countries to use the difficult economic condition to

pass policies that they would not have been able to do so ordinarily. >> finally, to round things up, to what extent are the watching the u.s. dollar from here? 2022 was the year of the dollar. 2023 is less so. >> that has been another factor that has impacted emerging market performance we believe the dollar is expensive over here. the trend is to have it stable to weaker. that is important because we like some emerging markets and local markets and we think they will continue to out perform >> all right we leave it there. thank you so much for joining us on the show today. shamilla khan. managing director from ubs a softer than expected u.s. cpi print fueled expectations the fed may be done with the rate hiking cycle. you can find out more on how traders are watching this on our subscription service on cnbc

pro. scan the qr code on the screen right now to subscribe. plus, cnbc analysis of facts has revealed seven stocks investors expect to value in the next 12 months you can find that full list on cnbc pro. coming up on "street signs," today we are going to talk about x. x marks the spot linda yaccarino gets her first sit-down interview since taking the helm at x corp discussing advertising boycotts to the potential musk-zuckerberg cage fight we'll have that interview next

welcome back linda yaccarino, ceo of x corp, formerly known as twitter, says she has autonomy in her job as chief. she and elon musk's roles are clear. yaccarino spoke to cnbc's sarah eisen said people should feel comfortable returning to the site >> i think that is an appropriate question i think some of the headline comments or phrases need to be

continually probrought to light i'm glad you asked i want to be clear you know for almost 11 years my previous experience was at nbc universal. a large part of my job was overseeing the revenue and partnerships for the company our number one social partner with twitter twitter was safe and we felt comfortable always being there >> not all brands. >> hang on a second m hang on. i'm going. i hear you i want tie that last ten years and put it in perspective. by all objective metrics, x is a much healthier and safer platform than a year ago since acquisitions, we have

built brand safety and content moderation tools that have never existed before at this company we introduced a new policy to your specific point about hate speech called freedom of speech, not reach. if you are going to post something that's illegal or against the law, you're gone zero tolerance more importantly, if you are going to post something that is lawful, but it's awful, you get labeled. you get labeled, you get deamplified which means it cannot be shared and it is demode demonday tuz -- demonetized. it is brand protected. it is also why it's really important to

♪ that once a post is labeled and it can't be shared, and the user sees that, 30% of the time they take it down themselves staggeringly, they take it down. that reducing of hateful content from being seen is one of the best examples of how x is committed to encouraging healthy behavior online. today, i can confidently sit in front of you and say that 99.9% of all posted impressions are healthy. >> how do you define healthy is porn healthy? is conspiracy theories healthy >> it goes back to my point about our success with freedom of speech, not reach if it's -- if it is lawful, but

it's awful, it's extraordinarily difficult for you to see it. >> cnbc pro subscribers can watch the full conversation with the x corp ceo linda yaccarino on the cnbc web site if you want to watch the full thing, you can head to our web site. now, as far as european markets are trading today, we are ending the week on the negative tone. indices are dipping into the red. ftse 100 down 1% today we are dipping back despite the better than expected uk gdp numbers for june up 0.2% on the quarter again, higher than estimates and meeting something with the bank of england could squeeze out one or two more interest rate hikes. that is what we are watching on the macro front. it has been a big week with earnings we have been watching the companies report and namely in the insurance sector a lot of names reported better

than expected results. w we got to the end of the bank results. overall, the week to date with the ftse 100 down .30% for the week dragged down by the china exposed stocks cac 40 is up .70% those are higher with the luxury names. the dax is down .40% a mixed bag when it came to the industrials. many citing properduction issues and demand issues. the ftse has been in focus italian has been down .80% with the ftse mib that is the introduction of the italian banking pact which was watered down by the end of the we week the swiss index for the week is up .10%. ubs out performing up 4% after they announced they will not

lean on government backstops u.s. markets mixed as well. the dow is up .30% just shy of 200. the s&p is down .20% and the nasdaq is down the main issue is the cpi number which was lower. cry cry crystalizing the fed is leaning on pausing the interest rate hikes. that is it for the show and the week i'm joumanna bercetche "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. i need it cool at night. you trying to ice me out of the bed? baby, only on game nights. you know you are retired right? am i? ya! save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds.

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5. stocks trying to close out the week in the green, but one sector of the market is not looking so lucky investors are feeling bullish on the heels of better than expected consumer price data producers, though, on the hook today. just over 100 days into the strike and hollywood writers and studios say they heare ready to get back to the bargaining table. u.bs moves to ri