extending resource life. >> steve >> united health i have no idea where the 50-day moving average is on this stock, but i like the fundamentals. >> i see what you did there. so that's the call out there american express, pioneer, and what's happening with united health keep it right here the dow losing some steam. we wish you a nice weekend "the exchange" with kelly evans starts right now ♪ ♪ >> thank you very much, dom. welcome to "the exchange." i'm kelly evans. here is what is ahead this hour. >> work for home we'll debate that and look at whether companies calling workers back to the office could derail this scenario plus, in a tight labor market, typical education enrollment goes down, but this stock is up 20%.

we'll reveal the company and speak with the ceo and an interesting three buys and a build gina sanchez is buying the u.s. consumer and selling the chinese one. but first, to the inflation reading. i'm still raising my eyebrows. and mike santoli is here to explain. >> a big part of the story is the bond yields. yesterday, we had a failed rally on a benign cp ireport today, a telloff on a slightly hotter than expected ppi this really has been chopping around as the seasonals get a little more challenging coming into august. if you look at where it sits in a one-year term, that pullback did get us right to the precipice of that 50-day average. 4443 was the intraday low. this morning in the s&p, why did that matter, if at all

take it back, and i'll tell you on july 11, the high for the day was 4443 what happened the next day really nice cp ireport, reported july 12. the market popped from there we filled it this morning. people think this matters, but it matters on a macro basis, because july 12, that cpi report got everybody on the soft landing side of the boat, raising the bar for good news. nasdaq 100, it has breached the 50-day average we'll see where it goes from here ten-year treasury yield, kelly, spending a fair amount of time at the upper end oh of this range going back to last fall, when we got to about 4.3 so not a lot of give in there. so the treasury supply, you know it all, that seems to be at work here it has the equity market's

attention. >> i find it noteworthy that we can swing around 20 basis points in a day did you say the nasdaq was down 8% from the highs? >> nasdaq 100, yeah, down 6.5% month-to-date. >> mike, thank you so much mike and josh brown will be on tonight's special program, the buzziest program in television right now at 6:00 p.m. mike, thank you. a warning sign that inflation could turn back up, there's that and the runup in oil prices, which has one of my next guests concerned. let's bring in my two guests great to have you both here. jay, you're watching crude prices or pump prices, aren't you? >> for sure, kelly pump prices, we have seen gasoline prices rise 30 cents, 40 cents or so over the last month or so.

so all those things could push the overall headline rate of inflation higher i think what's more important is the core rate of inflation that's coming down but that still remains, depending on what measure you are looking at, 3.5% to 4% so inflation at this point remains elevated >> so when we say elevated, i guess the real question goes a couple of ways number one, are we going to go up to 4% on the cpi, and if the fed is expected more or less not to hike rates again, might they get involved and is all of this, you know, a drag on the consumer, attacks on the consumeer? how should we analyze this, signs of more inflation in the economy is something that could drag on growth and the consumer? >> well, you know, right now in terms of the consumer and real purchasing power, wages and salaries are rising faster than most measures of inflation right now. so that's good for consumer

spending going forward i think the area where you have a little more concern is, so the fed is probably not going to cut rates any time soon. if core inflation continues to drift lower coming forward, which we think it will, we'll have the real fed funds rate start to move even higher. you'll get a passive tightening of monetary policy going forward. so that's what really matters for real economic growth is the real fed funds rate. so that's something we're keeping a close eye on and how much head wind is on the economy that can exert >> i'll circle back to that. but john, i want to ask you if you are worried about inflation turning back up, or what the process of the market looks like in what's been a choppy month, and like mike says, we've had the hottest month, the nasdaq 100 down 8% at the lows from the highs. >> you're right. technically the s&p 500 hit its recent highs on july 31st.

we are concerned about inflation. we're concerned about two of the things that jay pawked about, price on oil, high of the year and we're also concerned with restrictive monetary policy going into next year so stocks may stay choppy here the rest of the year, depending on what the fed does >> why is that what do you think is the chopiness proxy? inflation, more fed chatter, that kind of thing >> well, technically, our equity team, we're not seeing any earnings per share estimates go higher we're not seeing raises, and that's one of the things on our mind, giving the high p.e. multiples on some stocks and inde ind indexes. so not what the fed does in september, but what they do in

november, if they go in every other meeting with a rate hike >> what's your favorite part of the market right now, is there anything -- are you just t-bill and chill? what do you think? >> we have a little bit of a bias we took basically -- it turns out so -- and then allow our clients to enjoy higher yields. but within the stock market, energy is one area we're looking at financials is the other area high interest rates are generally good for them. so financials and energy are two areas of interest. >> two areas that had been struggling earlier this year jay, should the fed kcall out core cpi and say we're going to cut rates a quarter point. >> i think it was last week, john williams, the president of new york fed, came out and said

those sorts of words i don't know that they necessarily have a consensus i think that's still some hawkish members on the fed who want to see inflation come down. if you continue to see inflation coming down and you see deceleration in the economy, then the fed is going to have to start thinking about cutting rates or get into a situation where, just by letting the fed funds rate where it is, you have that passive tightening of monetary policy through the higher fed funds rate. >> one question people are starting to ask when they look how home prices are up, when they look at energy prices, where we have seen de-stocking, they say are fed rate hikes infla inflationary, what do you think about that >> sooner or later, if you continue to hike rates, you'll put enough restraint on the economy it will slow it down and

bring price pressures down >> so even with some of the short-term effects you see, hike prices, one way or the other, can act more as a tax on the consumer >> what we are seeing in general is credit card debt continues to rise higher and higher that's very sensitive to interest rates that acts as a headwind on consumer spending. most household debt is mortgage debt the vast majority is fixed but on the mr. chaargin -- >> gentlemen, we'll leave it there. thank you very much for your time today chinese stocks are under pressure again the etf down 6% this week, even with baba's rally yesterday. but today, fresh default fears hitting the real estate skter.

eunice has more on that. >> reporter: shares of one of the country's largest deve developers -- this is definitely in china, the company cited some of the challenges in the property sectors, such as falling prices and core sales. they're contributing to cash flow problems of the company the company has missed two coupon payments. moody's downgraded it. morningstar estimates that country garden's problems are not over at all. in fact, they estimate at least $137 million worth of bond interest payments in 2023 are going to become an issue for the company. some market expectation is that the company, the family that owns and controls the company

would be putting in their own personal wealth to mitigate the problem, but morningstar believes that might not be enough the company has home run alerted investors in hong kong that it could be reporting a loss of up to $7.6 billion in the first six months of this year. this is after last year in the same period, it posted a profit. the company itself has said it's going to make every effort for a self-rescue. the company has said that it's potentially weighing various debt management measures and could be looking at a debt restructuring but the company hasn't commented on those reports. kelly? >> eunice, we'll talk later on about the chinese consumer with a trader who is bearish on them. but we heard from companies who say in the past six, eight weeks they started to pick up a little bit. how would you describe the way you sense the chinese consumer

is doing these days? >> i'm surprised that you are hearing that people think things are picking up this week has been dire. the news has been about how exports are really terrible, that the factories aren't doing very well. most people here are not feeling confident about the outlook at all. the inflation figures here have been down played, not only by the government and state media, but people are hearing about these pricing issues so on top of that now, there is a lot of discussion about the property sector, especially with the share price of country garden going down to a penny stock, for a company that here has been known as one of the giants in the property sector, one that caters to people who are in the upper to middle class. i was talking to somebody today that said that company sells to wealthier people in this country and it's not doing well, that

must mean the wealthier people in our country don't have as much money as we thought so that paints a negative picture, and one of the reasons you see many more people concerned about saving money opposed to spending. >> that's interesting. i didn't realize country garden was upscale part of the market eunice, thank you so much. appreciate you staying up for us eunice yoon live in beijing. still to come, higher education involvement typically goes down in a lower market. plus, a special three buys and a bail retail edition. our trader is bailing on the chinese consumer, and the one she's buying might surprise you. and here is a glance at the markets. the dow is clicking onto a 46-point gain. the nasdaq down three quarters of a percent the russell is positive by about

a point and the ten-year note is at almost 4.16%. back after this.

welcome back to "the exchange."

strong labor markets can be tough slugging for educational companies. why bother with school when you can go straight into the labor force earning top dollar but one company is bucking that trend this year. shares are up 26% since jan 1, including today's 2% pop they're a leading provider by offering online and hybrid education. because the need for nurses and doctors remains great, they may be uniquely positioned to weather this market. joining me now is the ceo. steve, welcome >> thank you >> am i saying the name right? >> that's right. >> a lot of people know the name chamberlain as a chain of nursing schools. you're online and you have campuses, as well. >> that's right. we own the country's largest nursing school with 27 campuses. bealso deliver online and deliver hybrid programs, as well >> there's always this reputation with for-profit

schools. health care is a little different, a lot of your candidates might be in the workforce and working professionally talk to me about who are the people at these schools and what's the cost of the program and you've been around for like 60 years >> that's right. we focus on what the -- like we think of the folks that have jobs, families, other obligations. we take the model that meets them where they are. so we have part-time programs, night and weekend programs, full-time programs and we try to support the student in a way that allows them to achieve an skrout come that they might not achieve in a traditional university >> "the wall street journal" reminds us of the high cost of colleges and universities. maybe some for-profit pressures. talk to me about the quarter you guys had what led to the earnings in revenue beat >> we're seeing a real return from a demand in enrollment perspective.

across the category, about an 8% loss in enrollment and the pandemic has waned we've seen real demand for our programs and health care is suffering from a tremendous workforce shortage so the demand for positions, nurses, veterinarians is as high as ever. >> we should mention one of your large schools is a veterinarian program, as well i read how in the uk, there's a talent war going on where they are trying to import nurses from african countries. how acute is the problem in this country? >> if you talk to hospital ceos, their number one challenge is workforce. the strain on their existing workforce, but also the shortages that they have the real impact of quality of care, and we view ourselves with a scaled solution to address that >> you give 9% of nursing degrees and veterinarian degrees, as well >> that's right, 9% of nurses and vets we are the second largest residents in hospitals, medical

residents. >> you are an interesting play there are some troublesome headlines. i remember when the giant health care chain had a terrible quarter because of these inflationary pressures but do you think at some point this market will be more in balance? have we seen any signs that those wage pressures are easing up >> no. i think they're getting worse. that's tough news for health care and great news for us, as we look to scale up and provide more workforce to hospitals and health systems it's good for the quality of care and health outcomes and it's also a way to provide access to careers and folks that might otherwise not have it. >> with colleges overall, we have seen these are the years which things might get more lean, just by demographics and population do you expect to buck that trend, as well what does revenue growth or enrollment growth look like in

the next few years to come >> enrollment is down, student debt at an all-time high and people are questioning the valueproposition of a college degree where i think we're different is because we play in health care, and the need there is so acute and great. and i also think it's a noble profession people are called to care, to be a nurse or physician or a veterinarian. so we think we will buck that trend. >> what does it cost to get through one of your programs, typically speaking, versus -- i've known people who get maybe their bachelor degree and have to go back for a nursing degree. there seems to be a lot of different ways to come at this >> we benchmarked our tuition at a typical state university we think all of our programs are affordable, but more importantly, they're highly employable professions, which means our students are able to service their debt, repay their loans. in fact, we have some of the lowest loan default rates in all of higher education because of the careers we provide our

students >> publicly traded >> we have a few strategic education is a publicly traded competitor but no one has quite the breadth and depth in health care that we have at this hour. >> you also have the ross school of veterinarian medicine great to learn more about the company and see how you're navigate thing period. appreciate you coming in coming up, a lot of major u.s. retailers report results next week. if you are worried about the consumer here, it's the consumer in china you should be more worried about. that's the argument gina sanchez is making today. and gig workers, watch out a new pact would impact payments on services like paypal, even airbnb what you need to know if you have a side hustle here's the dow heating up as the index remains the only major average in the green today chevron and merck are the

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welcome back the chips are under pressure today as the etf is down 2.5%. nvidia continues its correction, as well. down about 3% in today's decision let's get to tyler now for a cnbc news update >> kelly, thank you very much. at the same time, attorney general merrick garland was announcing a special counsel in the hunter biden administration. a court filing in delaware from prosecutors in the case who filed a motion to dismiss, saying the two sides are no

longer able to come to a plea agreement, and that the government now believes the case won't resolve unless there is a trial. the plea agreement, as you may recall, fell apart in court last month when the judge started questioning both sides on the scope of that proposed agreement. ftx crypto currency whiz sam bankman-friedman, prosecutors are pushing for incarceration for harassing a witness. glad yeauater fights are ma a comeback with elon musk and mark zuckerberg. musk tweeted the fight will be promoted by their foundations and streamed on twitter and meta italy's culture minister, i

guess you can call it culture, confirmed he had spoken to elon musk about hosting the event, but said it will not take place in rome. kelly? >> this is an interesting one. >> i'm looking forward to the outcome. >> i'm just looking forward to us think thing is still going to happen, maybe it will, maybe it won't. plenty to speculate about. >> it's come to this >> thank you, tyler. coming up, corporate america is starting to resist the work from home trend, saying there's less productivity and collaboration, but could remote work save the u.s. economy from a recession? we'll explore that, ahead.

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so, it is a competition. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, 36-month financing on select smart beds. shop now only at sleep number. welcome back to "the exchange." as job growth continues to beat expectations, that's leading some to wonder where are all these workers coming from? and the answer may surprise you. steve liesman is here with more. hey, steve >> kelly, economists at bank of america say the work from home phenomenon could be providing the extra bodies that have been powering strong gains and mystifying economists. a recent report said, the

rebound in labor supply in 2023 has been sharp and unexpected. one argument that increased remote work and flexible work have pulled more workers into the workforce. the participation rate of workers 25-54 is up a full percentage point since almost all of that is women and work from home could be playing a role bringing them into the workforce, with higher wages. economist steven davis of the university of chicago found work from home has drawn the impyaire into the workforce look at the right side of your screen there the participation rate of those with the most health impairments is 2 1/2 times greater when they can work from home all sorts of groups can be working in greater numbers couples who live with only one job, the other can work remotely

the data suggests that it could be fueling job growth, which may not be as inflationary as the fed believes >> before i turn to our expert, is it possible people are working two jobs when they are working from home, maybe they're double dipping >> you know, i think our expert has more data on that. apparently, there's lousy government data on people working multiple jobs. that doesn't show a whole lot of change, but they's a sort of widespread agreement that we're not capturing the multiple job holders out there. but you're right i'm getting called on my other line from my other job here. >> i know somebody that was working for two different state governments. let's bring in steven davis, senior fellow at the hoover institution and professor at the blue school of business. great to have you on the program today. welcome. i don't know if you want to weigh in on the double dipping

thing before we get to the real stuff here >> i think it's probably the case that work from home has facilitated a bit more double dipping. but as steve suggested, how much is a hard thing to quantify. >> i still think it's not the worst thing for the economy. my theory is that corporate america is truly looking, it's a tug of war what's best for the overall economy? we want to save our transportation systems and our subways and toll roads and our sandwich shops by these office buildings. all of that benefits from people going back to the office but what is the sort of flip side of the story, if we really force jobs to go back to office and not allow this work from home flexibility >> sure. well, there are definitely some downsides of the shift to work from home. but lots of upsides. steve did a great job of listing several of them, including the possibility of bringing people

who have health and mobility impairments back into the workforce. maybe they can manage to commute one day a week, but five days a week is beyond them, because it's just too hard to walk or get around so it expands job opportunities for those people, and also expands opportunities for employers who might be able to hire those people. you also mentioned, steve did in his lead-in, that participation rate is especially up among women. well, many women would like to be home one or two days a week when their children come home from school. if they can work from home part of the week, that gives them an opportunity to do so that's true for a lot of men, too. we actually see the highest work from home rates for both men and women among people in their early 30s. no coincidence, that's when they tend to have young kids. >> that's why some of us are very pro of this trend i understand the companies, you were talking to steeple the other day. there are certain financial

firms, if they need people, that is type. -- is type, but there's a lot of support positions, back office type things for a lot of these institutions where that need is not as great >> yeah. i think you're right, kelly. >> kelly, i just want to -- oh, i was just going to very quickly point out that in your introduction with stephen davis, he's working for the hoover institute and the university of chicago. so he's got that double job thing going. i don't know if that's a work from home thing, but i wanted to point that out i want to turn to stephen davis about this issue about bringing back to monetary policy. steve, sit possible that work from home is keeping down wages and creating job growth with less inflation out there is that something the federal reserve should be considering when it worries about how tight the labor market and how strong job growth is. >> yeah. i think that's a super interesting and underappreciated

point. there's two ways in which the expanded work from home has made the fed's inflation fighting task easier. one is that many employers, about 40% according to our survey of employers through the atlanta fed, say they are actively using expanded work from home opportunities as a way to moderate wage growth pressures. sometimes by expanding the reach of their recruiting efforts to let more remote areas where wages are smaller for these back-end i.t. support jobs that kelly was mentioning but also because the work from home ship has brought more people into the labor force, as we discussed earlier so that's increasing the supply side potential of the economy, which makes it easier for the fed to then get a handle on inflation without clamping too much -- clamping down too much

on economic activity >> so i guess the question, steve liesman, i'll leave it with you, if i'm the fed or -- i mean, you could say, what is the right balance to strike here that will help some major parts of the u.s. economy but still harmful for others is the overall fact of low inflation the most important point here if >> what they need to do is bring in steven davis, easter from the hoover institution or the university of chicago, and what we really need to figure out, what my story couldn't determine is steven davis' data can't tell us what inning we're in here from this work from home are we at a place where we already broke those people into the workforce who are coming in, or is there more scope for expanding the labor force or the ours worked by those who worked from home to provide greater job

growth from this new phenomenon here i have been skeptical about, and this is a really important point here, about the idea that ultimately this ends up being lower productivity i'm not sure that's the case it may be for some people in some jobs, but i think there's a productivity boost for people not fighting, for example, the new york city traffic system i think there's an upside to that, that is not in the data yet but will be overtime >> last word, stephen. >> i think we're in the 5th or 6th inning and the other point i wanted to speak to the productivity question, that's a difficult challenge, but it's important to understand that employers can benefit from the shift to work from home, even if productivity falls a little bit as a consequence, because they have lower overhead costs, less space needs, and they can start to recruit some of these back end

and i.t. support people from further away where the wage costs are lower. so the productivity issue is a really important one, but it's not necessarily a bad thing for employers. >> now you're getting into, they're going to send my job to mexico seriously, we have to leave it there -- >> kelly, before we go, stephen, can you tell people you have a website where you put all of this amazing data that you are constantly bringing. >> it's wafhresearch.com that's work from home research.com lots of great stuff there. >> thank you both. this is great. really appreciate it speaking of work from home, if you have a small business or a side hustle and use payment apps for transaction, there could be some tax changes headed your way

robert frank has that story for us today robert >> the house ways and means committee approved legislation that would roll back this so-called gig tax. this is a tax that requires third party payment apps like paypal, venmo or airbnb, to send those 1099-k reports to anyone who reports business income of more than $600 in a year this is supposed to take effect in 2022, but the irs postponed it until the 2024 tax season that still means that income you receive this year from any of these payment apps over $600 could generate that 1099 this bill would lift the $600 limit to $20,000, and a customer has to have over 200 transactions in a single year. the gop saying this amounts to irs surveillance and harassment of americans who might just well sell their couch on ebay or get reimbursed by friends for dinner democrats say it's only the

business income, not reimbursements that would apply here and the current law doesn't change what you pay in taxes, only what is reported to the irs. so you should be paying your taxes any way. the tax policy center estimates up to half of the income that flows through these apps is going unreported that is added to the tax gap that is $500 billion a year or so that goes uncollected right now. one way to avoid all of this is to use zell, which by a strange legal loophole is exempt from any of the 1099 reporting. >> no way. >> direct bank-to-bank transactions >> what does this mean in terms of the settings we should be using, and whether these are workers or people who might run an airbnb or something like that >> that's a great question if it's a business transactions like renting your house as an

airbnb, make sure it's marked business but if it's not, make sure the private transactions, even if you sell a couch less than you paid for it, that's not taxable. label all those things, personal transaction, family, friend. it will theoretically not show up in the 1099 or be taxed >> all right making me nervous. robert, thanks very important stuff our robert frank coming up, today is the 102nd day of the hollywood writer strike. 102nd day, hard to believe negotiators for both sides are back at the bargaining table we'll get the latest on where the negotiations stand, right after this there are some things that go better... together. burger and fries... soup and salad. thank you! like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you make smarter decisions. for a more confident financial future.

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new projects means new project managers. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. when you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. visit indeed.com/hire and get started today. negotiators in hollywood are back at the bargaining table today, as the strike that has ground film and tv production to a halt crosses the 100 day mark.

julia joins us to discuss for today's "tech check. what do we know, julia >> this is the first time that the writers guild and the union that represents the studios is sitting down to negotiate since the strike began this is a good sign of progress, and there are a couple of key sticking points here, kelly. so the big question is what kind of progress they make in the talks today. just the three things. the writer's room, presiduals, and the third question of ai this is one that didn't start off as such a big deal but as become a key sticking point as writers want to make sure they're protecting their jobs. >> so the compensation residual question is interesting, because netflix changed the model. what are the options now

>> well, netflix changed the model. the fact that add verytizing is now part of the equation for some of these big streaming platforms, including netflix, makes netflix more similar to television the way it worked for writers, if you had a show that played on and on and went into syndication, you would get more payment, you would sort of profit in the success of your show with netflix, they tend to pay more with a flat flee model but the writers say they don't feel like they are profiting from their success but if netflix makes more money because of advertising, that brings the whole streaming model more in line with traditional television model we have seen. so i think there's some agreement that people are going to have to pay more to writers around streaming the question is how much i think that's one of the key issues that will be debated

around the table today >> i did not know we had hit the 100 day mark how much longer can some writers go without getting what i presume is a paycheck for 3 1/2 months >> what is so essential here, kelly, these deals that are negotiated have a massive impact, not just for the next three months for years and years. the writers know that they have a little bit more leverage now, because the actors are also on strike whatever deal the writers agree to, they help the precedent for the type of deal that sag is working for here, the screen actor's guild. so they'll be carely not to overly compromise. but at the same time, people have been out of work for many months and are eager to get back to work. they know whatever decisions they come to will have long, long implications, not just on their own paycheck, but the paycheck of the next generation of writers that hasn't even started working yet. >> can they get unemployment

benefits for this? again, this is now a quarter of the year, and counting, that a lot of people -- come to think of it, makeup artists, things like that, people that are part of that ecosystem that are currently not employed >> that's right. the latest estimate is that $3 billion impact just to the california economy because of the work stoppages from the writer and actor's strike. anyone who qualifies for unemployment can get it, but people want to get back to work and they want to make sure that the whole ecosystem doesn't change and make their work less valuable that's what this strike is about. $3 billion in lost revenue as a result of the strike, isn't just writers and actors, it's everyone caterers, makeup artists, et cetera >> julia, thank you. we appreciate it still ahead, it's time for retail earnings season next week giddyap. consumer sentiment was decent

last month and our trader is bullish on the u.s. consumer three buys and a bail is next. (vo) verizon small business days are back. from august 7th to the 13th. get a free tech check and special offers. like a free 5g phone. plus, switch, keep your number, and get up to $300 off. with verizon business. it's your business. it's your verizon.

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welcome back it's time to go shopping retail earnings ramp next week, and we are looking to find the best bang for your buck, so it's time for our three buys and a bail retail edition today. joining us with her trades is gina sanchez, chief mart jim vat gist at lido advisers and cnbc contributor. great to have you here welcome. >> thank you. >> let's begin, and this is good to get us in a mindset beginning with wal-mart. shares up 14%, decent not great. the big box giant reports thursday analysts are bullish credit suisse upping their price targets up citing strong grocery sales. the stock is at 161 right now. you like it, and you say it's not just a consumer story? >> no. this is actually part of it is an e-commerce story. they put a lot of money in over the last few years over e-commerce, and they started to

see some real returns from those investments in q1 and those will continue into q2 like 27% growth just in e-commerce, and walmart is the kind of, you know, downtrade that in a mild slowdown does really well because people want to save money, and, you know, i think citing the grocery store sales also, those are the kinds of staples that people need. we see walmart continuing to be kind of at the base of people's needs, and like i said in, a slowing economy you tend to trade down walmartbenefits. >> not quite the same hierarchy, but if we had a retail version that would be our base, tjx, those shares up 10% in the past few months they are going to report before the bell on wednesday. they also are generating positive buzz because of the off-brand model and inventory that they can rely on the earnings guidance for the second quarter was weaker than expected though because of inflation and margin pressures what would you do with this one in. >> this one we're positive on because some of those

inflational pressures are going away we saw that in the cpi numbers today, but also, this is a kind ofvalue play they have actually been guiding their -- they have been giving weak guidance all year, and the company has -- the earnings have continued to outperform, lower guidance the stock has continued to rise in the face of that lower guidance because people like quality, like if you really have to save money, going to an off brand gets you higher quality stuff for a lower price. so this is an interesting value play in a slowdown. >> and i'm very interested in your last pick year because you like tapestry, and those shares are taking a hit this week, down 16% after announcing they will acquire rival conglomerate capri for $8.5 billion of the market a little mixed, but you like this longer term, is that right the stock, i've looked at this, it peaked like over ten years ago. >> yeah. so, this is a longer term play i agree. it's interesting right now though if you look at the higher end of fashion, there's been a lot of

consolidation happening, and if you look at what's happening with this particular consolidation, you're bringing together brands like coach, kate spade on one side with versace, michael kors and, you know, jimmy choo on the other, so this is going to be a massive brand the one thing is the ceo of tapestry was actually brought on just after coach acquired kate spade, and she really put that company back on track. so she's proven her chops at consolidation, so if this entire space is consolidating, i think that she does actually have an edge and, yes, it's taken a hit because it is the acquirer, but you will probably see the total company emerge stronger as a result, and this is just a brand -- these brands are brands with tremendous brand value. >> all right our final one here, those are your buys. the one to bail on is really interesting because your larger theme here is that you're pretty optimistic on the u.s. consumer but much more cautious on the chinese one. estee lauder has been smack in the middle of this shares are down 32% this year on

that sluggish economic recovery. last quarter they said they expected full-year net sales to fall between 10% and 12% is all the bad news priced in at this point it sounds like you think no. >> no. actually one of the things -- a lot of expectation was put into that chinese reopening, and it has continued to get pushed out farther. it's continued to underwhelm, and i am not sure that we have really swallowed all of the potential bad news it could come from just a slower and slower reopening we keep pushing out the expectations, but i think that it's actually going to be almost a non-event wrz everyone is expecting that there's going to be a reopening at some point and that it's going to be massive when it happens. that's what's not priced in. >> right all right. gina, thanks we really appreciate it. it will be a fun week, hopefully, sort of, depends on the definition of fun, think. >> gina sanchez, have a great weekend. we appreciate it. >> that does it for "the exchange" today. for more analysis on the market economy i sent out a newsletter.

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good friday afternoon, everybody. welcome to "power lunch" as we wrap it up for the week. alongside kelly evans, i'm tyler mathisen coming up, deals, deals, deals of the billions of dollars changing hands in corporate america this week s.deal-making back we'll take a look at that and the whys and where fors. conflict brewing in corporate america following the scotus decision on affirmative action at university. businesses may now be facing similar challenges conservative groups suing over