meantime, just taking a quick look at the markets and where we ended the day, the dow and the russell higher everything else was lower. in terms of gains on the week, it was only the dow. the s&p and nasdaq finishing lower on the week. that is going to do it for us at "overtime. have a wonderful forecast. "fast" begins right now. >> right now on "fast," counting down to earnings from some of the biggest retailers from walmart to home depot. what we can expect from the reports next week and what they could say about thestate of th consumer. and nvidia dropping 3.6% they are falling 15% from the all-time high. so where is the sector going next the chart master gives us his two pennies. later, a chart of the week seeing the best week since going public more than 70 years ago. what is it is it too late to buy in we will lock for answers

this is "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site on the desk, tim, and our guest trader victoria fernandez. thank you all for joining us here tonight we are going to start with a sputtering end the dow gaining while the nasdaq and the s&p were lower on the day. all three indexes well off their lows after a hotter than expected inflation report. wholesale prices rising more than forecasts in july both the nasdaq and the s&p posted their second straight week of the losses, the first time the nasdaq has done that all year now focus shifts to the next crop of earnings reports with the retailers. those are the big headlines we will see next week home depot first, walters, target, tjx, along with others target is the big exception. what can we expect to hear from these names in next week and will they give the market support to turn things around?

obviously, a lot of big names, two dow components, home depot and walmart. we really care what walmart has to say about the state of the u.s. consumer. target, though, is undervalued, down 17% since last reported what are you expecting out of these names? >> they are undervalued. if they have not and that business mix still faces challenges, particularly as we are talking about credit cards now topping over a $1 trillion, right, so there are some signs that the consumer is stretched so it's going to be a bit more important that they get that inventory mix right. in terms of the names that i am looking at, home depot would be top of mind. your home is probably your largest store of wealth. that's where everyone is going to be tapping into, looking to make improvements or trades or adding value so i think being that i have, you know, some preconceived notions about where the consumer is headed, home depot gives me insight into where people are

with their most prized asset. >> home depot expects this to be a year of moderation the market seems to be thinking, well, even so, home depot could still be a winner here. >> they definitely could be. i think at this point we are seeing a bit of a shift in leadership we saw energy outperform this week, the last couple of days particularly we talked about in terms of nvidia and whether or not you will see growth out of there as you start to see a bit of broadening out breadth in the market and leadership changes those will be economically sensitive topics i think we are going to see -- need to see the numbers, ppi today, come out and support the narrative that is leading us higher. >> good point. energy was the leading sector today. when we are looking at retailers next week, the most recent quarter just reported they sort of had fairly decent reports, but a lot of caution, if not concern about what they would report this quarter and going forward, and everyone wants to he know is

the consumer yakkcracking >> household debt is not changing because income are higher because of the strong labor market so i think we still have support from the consumer. i think what we need to watch on the retail earnings in the calls is labor costs we know wages are going higher we have seen it in many industries united auto workers their contract up in mid-september how will they talk about wages higher, labor costs higher when productivity is not high enough to balance that out. we have seen inflation start to come down, which means pricing power should be eroding. how are they going to combine that andfight that we know that it takes about 18 months once the tightening cycle starts to hit corporate revenues we are at 17 months right now. we are right there where we should start to hear more of that that's what we are going to be listening for. the stronger companies with the strongest balance sheets should come out ahead.

>> today credit suisse coming out and giving price target increases to walmart ahead ef those results while over the last several weeks wall street has become more bearish on target and what that report may tell us. do you feel like those are the right calls? >> i think it's absolutely critical to be looking at these companies in terms of their ability to execute because not only do we have a mix effect happening in the labor market where you see a lot of strength and wages at the lower end and in that kind of middle end people who are salaried, you are not seeing nearly the same gains. if anything, i think they are the most at risk of job losses so i think retailers expose odd that sector i am a little bit more worried about individual execution really matters. it's interesting, right. because you have seen investors be relatively okay with margin erosion. we hit peak margins last year and investors seemed to be okay with that. but at some point these businesses do have to make

money. if you look at walmart, the compound annual growth and ebitda the last ten years is zero that's meaningful. >> yeah, absolutely. that is an interesting point tim, i saw from one of the analyst's notes talking about walmart and sort of as a fifth point of why they liked it they like the health and wellness business, the pharmacy, because of what they heard about these weight loss drugs and the cfo said at a conference, we have seen a lot of sales but they are lower march for us. what do you make of walmart? >> well, i think that the walmart story is one where the general merchandise shift is helping them so going into second quarter, numbers very -- well, different than first quarter first quarter, going into the numbers, it was really clear walmart was a significant overweight, they were dynamic surrounding the economy, dynamics surrounding disinflation and i think we see less of an overweight but i think this is still a major overweight out there, remains a conservative play and it should be comps are getting upgraded into

the numbers. they will be anywhere from 5 to 6.5%, i think, that's where the street is. that's significantly better than any of the other broad lines or hard lines certainly significantly better than target's going to have deceleration on the comps so i think walmart deserves to be overweight walmart's been during this period where the stock has performed, it's really done almost nothing in terms of ebitda or in terms of even the eps has been up 1 to 3% the last three years. if you look at the street, they have got a decent gain they have got 8 to 9% eps growth for '24. you are planning on walmart made major investments in technology, parts of the store, pharma business, which should reach higher margin. the disinflation theme, which is a short idea out there also has picked up momentum, one that you have to be careful about because i think you are starting to see at least some of the food prices at the least hold ground here

and i think while some of the multiples across food and staples are challenging, i think you will see pricing power hold on. >> when you look at names lick tjx and ross stores, this treasure hunt model that stood up as we moved more to e-commerce, shares up 10%. outperforming the xrt. if the consumer is starting to weaken, is that an area where you could find some winnings >> it's the area we have exposure at cross mort tjx along with amazon and then some auto, like autonation or autozone names but the consumer is moving down that scale of what they are willing to spend they are still spending. they are trying to find better deals. if you are looking at something like a t.j. maxx, this is where they go. walmart the same category because they have a broad range of price points and you hear walmart on the last earnings call talking about the consumer is still shopping there but buying the discounted brands

so, yes, tjx, walmart, amazon, these are places that you can find some benefit in the retail side. >> i can't wait to see what these results, obviously, will be in the coming weeks ahead after a strong run in the first half the year, it's been a rough couple weeks for semis the semiconductor etf and nvidia the worse weeks of the year. nvidia down 15%. reporting earnings in two weeks. what should we expect from the group as we head into that report we will ask the chart master what are you seeing? >> and before we get to the charts, many ways it is always a beta trade just consider the fact that semis are down 9.5%, from their peak three weeks ago, the s&p down three on wait down from the original peak, s&p dropped 27, stocks dropped 48 from the low in october, from which all equities have been bouncing, s&p's up 28 and the

stocks up 67 it's just juice. so the question is, is there more juice to the downside right now having already dropped 9.5%. i should think so. let's look at three identical charts so the first is the smh. no lines, no drawings, no jumts. let's put some in. second chart it is what it is and are we ordained? we have to go down to the line no do i think we are? yes. let's look at another iteration. final iteration. we are in a channel. the lower is another 4%. ultimately, i think we will get down as much as seven from here. >> interesting moves here. so many people are interested in these names, particularly nvidia we heard about some of the super chip information this week any of those -- i know you are a technical guy. any fundamentals at play that we need to pay attention to especially since we won't hear the full yresults. quarter for two weeks? >> if i were -- i get out a q or

a k, and i'm out like that it's beautiful thank you. >> you got it. well, thank you, carter. we will see you in a few minutes on "options action." tim, what do you make of the action in the chip space does this actually give us an opening price point to jump in >> i don't think, first of all, until the 23rd, we know they are going to beat. how significantly, how great of a beat and what do they need to do to actually put a floor under a stock that, obviously, was a rocketship and you could make an argument, easy to say now, you know, that stock for two and a half months after the e announcement last quarter people were betting against and wrong and i think the a.i. dynamics in terms of the earnings potential of the company we will hear strength there carter talked about the charts i think the dynamics in the semiconductors as a group more broadl broadly are fascinating. they are down 9%, almost 7%.

it's been significant relative underperformance, not really making a a relative high during that period from the nvidia announcement on may 25th last quarter. so i think they are going to continue to trend lower, too we have seen major rotation. doesn't mean they fall out of bed. i think there is still some room for this entire trade to go back and note obviously, the qs underperforming, but they, too, broke through the 50-day thi think the s&p follows. does not mean devastation. it means in august and september where seasonals tell you the, markets could continue to be weaker i don't think you have to chase any of this stuff into nvidia earnings. >> when we are talking about the chips, they have been so hot, has been the sector we pay such close attention to this week there has been a lot of focus on energy top performing sector here today. is the chip trade cooling off? are we moving back into the old economy here for opportunity >> it's hard to say. i think at the end of the day

for me these are businesses that are cyclical, capital intensive and require really strong uptrends and secular trends that are very hard to predict and i still continue to hear, when i talk to management teams in the software business, when they are talking about a.i., there is a certain reticence and a certain hesitation to really get aggressive about it. they all talk about it because they have to talk about it but i actually don't get a sense that this, you know, if you build it, they will come that is not my sense i think that the concept of a.i. and generative a.i. in particular is going to take a much longer time to play out than people have in their earnings forecasts and models. are i think nvidia is a little bit different just because it has a near almost monopoly in terms of what it's able to produce. i think for the rest of the sector, for me pretty unappealing at these levels and generally speaking not, you know, what i would say high quality. >> what do you make of the chip trade? >> i tend to agree with that

the divergence between nvidia and the rest of the space, there is some sick cyclical and economic head wins you might be thinking of. nvidia that's what you asked and that's what i'll focus on. one run. one the things that carter mentioned is beta. when you look at a portfolio, up capture and down capture 1.76 beta. it's up like 200% this year. it might give up 10 or 15%, particularly if they are not able to raise guidance the question is, where the entry point and how much more outperformance can you expect and how much outperformans have you had. if i outperm by 150%, i am willing to take the volatile that comes with that the beta of that stock tells you that's what you expect when you invest there. >> coming up, we are combining the semi sect we are the discretionary space. a space that straddles both.

applied materials heading into earnings. first, sitting down at the negotiation table for the first time today in months have they gotten anywhere close her to ending this 100 day long strike we are heading to hollywood to look for awensrs "fast money's" back in two er.... like your workplace benefits... and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together... can help you be better prepared for unexpected events. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

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wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. and it's all right here. streaming was never this easy, you know. this is the way. you really went all out didn't you? um, it's called commitment. could you turn down the volume? here, you can try. get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

money. as the writer strike crosses the 100-day mark, negotiators are coming back to the bargaining table, but the economic pains of a full hollywood stop are still being felt julie boorstein with the details. >> well, still being felt or starting to be felt. they are officially starting renegotiations today this is the first time since the strike started on may 2nd that they have sat down to negotiate. both sides are now under pressure anow that the strike a lasted longer than the 100-day writers guild strike 15 years ago. this caught tcost the californi economy $300 billion plus with additional impact in atlanta and other markets. the entertainment industry is already seeing growing effects from the actors and writers strikes.

the emmys were delayed from september to january the broadcasters are bracing for a fall tv season with a dearth of scripted content. the studios are considering delaying more films release dates this fall because they don't have the actors to promote them, unless, of course, they come to a deal sony already moved the release dates of search films, including a ghostbuster sequel there are two key sticking points in the negotiations that reflect the particular-driven transformation ever the entertainment industry past and future the center of negotiations for the writers and actors is the rise of streaming. writers are demanding comp station for streaming films and series, including residuals. there is a.i. protections, banning a.i. from writing or rewriting projects and preventing writers' material from being used to train a.i with he will see if the talks that are happening are productive it's certainly seeming like the

writers could have more leverage because the actors are striking with them. >> absolutely. this is longer than that strike 15 years ago. >> that's right. today is day 102. >> wow thank you very much. keep us updated on that. we will trade this one julie, i mean, how bad is this, i guess, if you are a content provider and in one way you are saving some money because you don't have production costs. however, that only -- that benefit only lasts so long if you don't have anything to give a very demanding audience that's hungry for more. >> yeah, i think it's one of those things where i think initially it was a pretty helpful thing. it was almost like years and years ago when the cigarette companies were no longer allowed to do any advertising and it structurally changed their margins for the better the challenge now is at some point they need to be able to have the content there is only so many episodes of the "real housewives" that i can watch, and it's a lot, but it's not endless, right?

eventually we need scripted tv the real difficulty what's happening in the industry is it supports a broader industry. so i would say the -- i live in los angeles. our office shares with caa those poor agents look so depressed. it's awful for them, really. we should be worried about them. but it has a broader implication. i think generally speaking, it calls into question the business model of streaming at large. i think that's what people need to be focusing on. >> yeah, absolutely. i think in some cases that moved a little bit faster than the rest of it obviously, the writers around actors need to get more of their fair share we are going to move on. we have some -- a news alert here. just crossing, kate rooney doing some math for us what are you seeing? >> yes these are the moves from some of the major hedge funds. let's hit soros fund first this is the family office. dissolved the stake in netflix,

salesforce, snowflake, spotify, and walmart. increasing in door cash, tobacco a t michelle obama, interactive brokers, a new stake in paypal and getting in on nvidia and microsoft. so scooping up 10,000 shares of those names. these are the q2 moves the positions may have changed in the past 45 days. starboard, under in humana, trimming in salesforce and then dissolved its position in semis. back to you. >> fascinating we got to move on because we got a lot more show left. coming up, it's friday you know we have got a chart of the week for you this stock's healthy gains since monday helped lock in the best week on record ever, all time. we will tell you what it is after the break. this is "fast money. we're back in two. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again.

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♪ welcome back to "fast money. time to reveal our chart of the week it's eli lilly, closing the best week on record and soaring 17% since monday the company reporting a blowout second quarter this week, seeing profits surge 85% and a promising new study on the cardiac benefits of weight loss drugs. so, with shares up 40 plus percent this year, can the stock keep up the healthy gains? victoria, what do you think? >> we are looking at a stock with a huge bump because of a specific reason. we are looking at a drug that people are using for vain

reasons, right, vanity how long can that last i think that's the question. it's had a good bump it's a good company. we own it. it should be a long-term holding. do we expect to see this type of gain continue? no we have heard the news soon as you stop taking the weight loss drugs, the weight comes back on. this is going to have to be something people do for an extremely long period of time to continue to see these kinds of gains. i might take a little bit off the table and wait for a pullback to get back in. >> all right tim, your thoughts on eli lilly? >> i think the stock is expensive. they are not going 35% a year. i think they are best in class in the pipeline, also have alzheimer's. they have been selling upside calls for clients. they are not happy right now it's not going to hold these levels. >> 59 times four earnings. the final trade. we got to get started. tim, start us off. >> yeah, we that energy conversation xle is higher. people were negative on the sector and think this is a

momentum trade and unexpected oil move, that's why it stays higher and goes higher. >> julia, our expert on the housewives. >> i feel like you can have walmart at 25 times ebitda zero or google at 21 times, 20% >> all right victoria >> we like cigna in your portfolio for a long-term holding. it's got a good risk/reward going on with good membership, good valuations at 11 times. >> vix. >> that does it for as"ft money. "options action" is up next.

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♪ right now on oa, big box retail stocks can't climb their way out of the box right now, but we have way for you to build on any future gains with one name chips, dips, and inflation how they all may come together in a mini rally market aptideser. we'll explain. and nothing runs like a deere. but could quarterly results trip it up or give it a boost i'm courtney reagan in for melissa lee.