it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters here is your top "five@5." goldman sachs predicting when jay powell and the central bank may reverse course on the rate tightening cycle china hitting another speed bump shares of real estate are plunging dealing for a fight. u.s. steel rejecting $7 billion takeover calling it unre

unreasonable. ev price wars back on. tesla cuts price on some models in china the american consumer just continues to spend andnot just on the essentials. latest figures from mastercard it is the latest on monday, august 14th, 2023 of t you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. let's check on the futures it is on the positive side of things dow implied higher by 33 points. s&p implied higher 8 nasdaq is 46 points of the dow riesing in the last fou of five weeks. the tech sector has been

stumbling. nasdaq with the pullback of 4.5% the worst stretch for the index going back to december of last year checking on the bond market. yields in focus. 4% level in key. we are there for the 2-year treasury or rather the 10-year treasury the 2-year treasury is 4.9%. a bit of a pullback on the longer end 30-year treasury is 4.26%. in energy, oil prices are still a little high. $80 for u.s. benchmark wti down .50%. similar for ice brent crude. currently $86.30 by the way, keep your eye on grain prices wheat is up after a russian war

ship fired warning shots at the cargo ship in the black sea. grain, out of the ukraine region, with wheat up $655. goldman sachs is expecting the federal reserve to cut rates in the second quarter next year. in a note, the economic team stating the fed will reduce rates 25 basis points per quarter starting in june and stabilizing around 3.25% overall. fed fund futures next year at 5.4% golden says core inflation has slowed enough to bring on one more rate hike, but warns the risk of rates hold if inflation does not cool fast enough. let's talk more about what it means for the markets with ben

emons at newedge wealth. this is an interesting call because it is not an interesting call it is for the record now it seems like the financial markets priced around this kind of a feel for next year and the rate path. why is this golden note important or is it setting the benchmark for everybody else out there? >> good morning, dom i think it is important that the market is basically confirming what the fed wants to achieve. it wants to get to a point to lower rates. if you listen to williams or goolsbee, they believe the rate is high enough and if you keep there for some time, inflation will cool off more and they can cut rates. otherwise, the low interest rate gets too high. that is important because we are at a point where nominal treasury yields are at 4% and

they will impact the economy negatively that is a positive if you believe the fed can achieve the goal of lower inflation which is positive for the economy with rate cuts. it is setting the benchmark. you have the wheat prices and energy prices which are all on the move i don't think we are there yet the call of the final rate hike is yet to be seen. >> ben, you don't fight the fed. obviously, because they have a lot of ammunition with power over monetary policy in the country. is there a point now where the markets are getting it right in terms of where they think future growth prospects are or future inflation? if you look at the yield curve in the short end with the 2/10 at the steep -- close to the steepest inversion in decades.

are we in a good opportunity with the treasury rate side of th things >> to an extent, we are. we are on the range at the 2/10 of 3.25 and 4.25 the 4.25 level is normal with the fed rate hikes there is a good entry point particularly because core inflation is slowing down. be wary that we deal with the fiscal deficit and more supplies that keeps pressure on the rates. you get to the entry point which is clear as the economy continues to moderate which means slower inflation t >> ben, what is the expectation for the inflation picture? the feeling is we may be coming close to the process of peaking and we could see slower moves

ahead. is there a flare up? >> that risk is there, dom the issue is to have -- i should explain the situation in ukraine as one example or just recent surge in gas prices in europe or seeing the oil prices moving higher it will challenge headline inflation again and that could feed through core at some point. it remains a challenge i think buy and large, having done the massive rate hike cycle, it is putting pressure on inflation medium term. this is what the market is right about which will mean we have patience to see how it settles out. the inflation may not come back like in 2022 core inflation is probably right. >> the big part of the inflation story. the housing and living cost. we will hit that later on in the show ben emons, thank you very much

see you soon sdp >> thank you, dom. let's get the top corporate stories with silvana henao good morning, silvana. >> good morning. u.s. steel rejecting the offer to be purchased by cleveland the acquicquisition of assets ws unreasonable it is ready to act on the offer immediately should u.s. steel change its mind. u.s. steel is launching an alternative. don't miss the exclusive interview with the ceo lorenzo gonsalves today. and softbank is buying the 25% stake in a.r.m

softbank owns 775% of a.r.m. an this could bring in the ipo and looking to raise $8 billion to $10 billion valuing it between $60 billion and $70 billion. tesla is cutting prices on two versions by $1,900 each and offering a subsidy for the model 3 vehicle amid the price wars in china some prices have been slashed by 15% as tesla looks to face stiff competition from chinese ev makers. bloomberg reporting that tesla models were selling for 50% less than in the u.s. and europe. dom. >> that is over in china silvana, thank you. more to go here on "worldwide exchange," including the one word that investors have to know today. why a dive in shares in

china isdealing a blow to the second largest economy we have a report from beijing coming up. we remember blowing smoke from the wildfires in canada turned the skies in major cities in the u.s. orange and yellow. we have the look at the risks. and monte carlo, aspen and caymans. what you need to save up for if you want to spend time in the world's top vacation destinations for the ultra wealthy. a ryve busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund,

so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies.

welcome back u.s. equities are big slightly the nasdaq is higher by 53 points let's see how europe is shaping up joumanna bercetche is live in the london newsroom with the early market action in europe. good morning, joumanna >> good morning, dom the hand over from the asian markets was not pretty focus on the woes heading in the real estate sector in addition to weak credit lending in europe, we shrugs off the

concerns notice ftse 100 is down .20% basic resources which has links to china is coming under selling pressure today dax is up .50% cac 40 is up .30%. leaning toward a positive start. a couple of stocks on the radar with philips you see the stock is up more than 5.1% at the top of the stoxx 600 after exor is taking a 15% stake in the company and a long-term shareholder. you see the news is positive which is lifting other stocks. and on to the europe banking sector ubs in focus trading north of 20 swiss francs per share as employees are challenging the buyout of credit suisse.

a group of 1,000 individual investors, including former employees, is planning to file a lawsuit today in zurich. investors are slhrugging off thi stock. thank you, joumanna. country garden is slowing in hong kong and bringing in an issue to the real estate sector. let's get out to eunice yoon in beijing with more on the drop in that stock real estate is important which it is an important part of the economy. it is important to china can you take us through what it me means, eunice? >> reporter: this is one of the very few ways, dom, of which people can invest money. you mentioned country garden

this was a cash rich developer over the weekend, it would suspend trade in 11 onshore bonds. this is after missing bond payments to the tune of $22.5 million. morgan stanley cut the stock to under weight and moody's downgraded the developer after the company burned through $7.6 billion in the first half of the year the developers are reporting financial issues that is adding to the jitters. state-owned jinmao expects to see an 80% fall in the profit in the first half another state-backed developer said it missed interest payments and suspended trading for 6% guaranteed notes due in 2024 on top of that, the fate of the

private wealth manager is also weighing on sentiment here because the company had bet big on the real estate industry and on a recovery. now the company's clients which report to the shanghai stock exchange saying it is having problems making payments for the financial products dom. >> eunice, the government is a big part of the equation with the economy there as it is everywhere it is a socialist government of the any-- government. any signs the government will step in with this ailing companies? >> reporter: there has been a lot of talk about helping the real estate sector in some way last week we did hear the securities regular tor called i to see what can be done about the debt as well as the overall

situation. however, today, the authorities were quiet in fact, it has hardly been reported in the state media. >> eunice yoon, thank you very much ahead on "worldwide exchange," why morgan stanley is naming this one stock a top pick ahead of the earnings report shares up triple digit this year, but how much more room can it run you know this chart, right we talk about it so much it is in technology of we'll have more coming up.

my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if

your small business qualifies. welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get a check of the headlines with jessica leyton in new york >> good morning, dom wildfires in hawaii are the deadliest in modern u.s. tr history. 96 people have been killed on the island of maui more than 2,000 homes have been destroyed. police have been searching cars in the streets as of sunday, they searched 3% of structures for people. >> so you know, 3% that's been searched with the dogs 3% we pick up remains and they fall apart and you have 200 people running through the scene yesterday and i don't know how much more you want me to

describe >> . >> a slawsuit to the utilities company. the utilities does not comment on pending litigation adding the high wind protocols were followed dom, a terrible situation. likely to get worse. back to you. >> our thoughts are prayers with everybody. thank you, jessica there has been a lot happening in climate right now there has been a lot of smoke in the area because of wildfires in canada this summer smoke has traveled hundreds of miles from canada suffocating cities from coast-to-coast it is impacting our physical and financial health senior climate don't diana olick

explains >> reporter: from vegas to new york city to midwest metro in between, smoke from wildfires in canada and u.s. west is disrupting lives and impacting livelihoods. we won't know the full financial impact of the smoke until this clears we know wildfires smoke reduced earnings in the u.s. by $125 billion a year between 2007 and 2019 or nearly 2% of annual labor income according to a study by the university of illinois and university of michigan those numbers are rising with with the effects of climate change >> the events we have seen in the last few months are two to ten times as large as we have in the study. >> reporter: one or two days can

trigger lasting employment losses and hourly workers without paid leave at risk in particular >> if you don't oshow up for th job, you will lose that job. decline in productivity and it is passed on in the form of lower earnings >> reporter: that risk is not lost on major public companies employing thousands globally amazon had air quality in place on the west coast like air scrubbers in warehouses. this summer in chicago, they were sending n-95 masks to drivers and shorter routes >> we are going to have to change the way we think. these events are not going to decrease they are likely going to increase we are learning that data is power. we are finding the more data we

have, the better we react. >> reporter: eco lab, which helps large companies reduce environmental impact, saw four times the number of smoke warnings this summer the health and safety official said they may use strategies when covid hit. >> we developed precautions and methods. we will do the same with the w wildfires in the u.s >> reporter: employee safety is the most important, but companies will have to focus on the financial safety from smoke. the more smoke, more financial losses like smoke, it could drift into corporate earnings and investor profit dom. >> diana, it seems the wildfires smoke issues came on early how much longer is the u.s. mainland at least at risk? we know what is happening in

hawaii right now us here in the u.s. area and midwest saw a lot of effects from the canadian wildfires. >> reporter: it was a strange summer wildfires season is july through october. in canada, it came early we saw the smoke and our wildfire season did not start until later with the wet winter and spring with the heat we have been reporting on all summer, we are likely going to see more in the fall. >> and california still under heat advisories. diana olick, thank you see you soon. still to come, apple out with the earnings report why the biggest maker of iphones is not immune from the drop off in consumer demanded. if you haven't already done so, follow our podcast check us out on apple or spotify or your podcast app of choice.

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5:29 a.m. eastern time in the new york area. still a lot ahead on "worldwide exchange." here's what's on deck. investors look to share off a rough start to august. earnings could be big drivers for the trading action. sam bankman-fried behind bars

why the judge sentenced him to behind bars before the trial. and whether the u.s. consumer continues to spend and spend and spend. the latest ahead it is monday, august 14th. you are watch witing "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back i'm dominic chu in for frank holland. let's pick up with the u.s. equities which are big the dow implied higher by 59 points s&p by 11. nasdaq up by 53. in the bond market, yields are rising the 10-year treasury is just about 4.16%. higher in the 2-year treasury which is above 4.9 the 30-year treasury is 4.p26%.

oil prices are lower so far. u.s. benchmark wti is down .25%. that similar for ice brent crude. down 28 cents. let's check on the corporate stories with silvana henao >> dom, sam bankman-fried is headed to jail he was sent to the metro detention center in brooklyn where he is expected to remain until the criminal trial in october. this comes after he ignored warnings from the judge to refrain from speaking with the media or evading bail conditions exor and philips is entering agreement worth $3 the billion

exor taking a 15% stake in philips and committed to being a minority investor. it may increase the stake to 20%, but exor doesn't expect to buy more shares of philips in the short-term. and foxconn shares dipping after the technology company beat expectations. it reported a 1% decline in net profit due to slowing demand for consumer electronics foxconn expecting revenue to fall slightly in the third quarter. dom. >> silvana henao with the headlines. thank you. the american consumer is taking center stage this week as several big box retailers, target, home depot, walmart, get set to report the quarterly

results. we have july retail sales due out tomorrow we have forecasts calling for a 0.4% increase which would be higher than june's numbers as consumers continue to spend despite inflation numbers. new data from mastercard showing an uptick of spending in july in the summer season. joining me to take a look at the results in the first on cnbc interview is michelle meyer. michelle, thank you for being here i wonder what can you tell us on how how healthy the u.s. consumer is here >> thank you, dom. the study shows what you said at the start. consumer s are spending they are making the decision it is their choice of what they

are purchasing for the month of july, it was a lot of the summer and we will enjoy the last few weeks we know school is approaching. we have to gather supplies certainly electronics were a big part we saw the increase in spending. prime day promotions fourth of july holiday the periods are prompting the spending and consumers to go out and deploy the purchasing power. >> the purchasing power was deployed somewhat differently before the pandemic and differently during the pandemic. now in a transition phase post-pandemic. take us through the shifts i know we did takeout food a lot during the pandemic. we dine out more now i buck the trend, michelle i take less vacation

travel to those destinations costs more compared to other things what are we doing from the experience standpoint? >> the phases are something we are talking about where you have gone from pent-up economy to the activity and reopening and now the economy which is normaliznon and finding the equilibrium. that is what you see with the consumer as well the consumers are reflecting on what they can buy and where the pent-up demand lies. the early stages of the pandemic, you saw the extraordinary surge of spending on housing-related items we saw quite a lot of stockpiling. in the reopening phase, everything was strong. particularly the bounce in experience which led to spending we are still in the environment. if you look at the spending, we are running 8% year over year on

restaurant spending. we see the pent-up demand driving that with growth, we are running half that space you know, consumers are still changing and adapting. in a way, still responding to the environment in the last few years. that balance and basket of spend is an evolution. >> does the data suggest, michelle, any future -- we think we have a crystal ball with consumer spending. we don't the data is there. you see a lot of it. are there indications that we could see things down the line that maybe aren't we aren't seeg right now? are we seeing an uptick toward goods rather than services is there anything you can glean from that? >> from that, i would put on my economics hat and look at the

consumer spending. the most important is the labor market the monthly sales report and understanding the job creation across secretors and what it do for income growth. the last number is less than 200,000 job created. the wage growth above normal as long as consumers are employed, they will continue to have their jobs and have a sense of security for the future i think there will be comfort around spending. spending in a thoughtful way where you concentrate on spending >> michelle, before we let you go, i'll does you to put your economics hat back on and talk about what your baseline expectations for the coming quarters and months.

a lot made of goldman sachs call of rate cuts happening next year and the baseline in the futures market what is your expectation for 2024 >> i think it is an economy that still has a while to go in terms of figuring out the new phase. when you think about the economy this year, the first half of the year, real estate growth running above 2% that is an above trend economy the economy despite the growth is seeing the slowdown and moderation in inflation. you know, it is really evolving in a way that is encouraging it is not done yet we are not back down to the fed target we are not at the point where we are considering the number for the unemployment rate. that is what is going to occur as we look ahead and the economy continues to find that study and

bump along the way we have to monitor the data. the consumer is critical in trying to understand the path for forward. >> michelle, thank you for your thoughts we have a news alert speaking of the economy. janet yellen is concerned about the risks of overconcentration of clean energy supply chains in a handful of countries the u.s. is working to build resilient, diversified supply chains she is expected to speak on the challenges of transitioning away from carbon fossil fuels. one bank is shuffling the top pick in the hotel business the names moved around coming up. as we head to break, the top

trending stories mark zuckerberg says it is time to move on when it comes to hopes for a cage match with elon musk the meta ceo posting on his threads account, he proposed a date and ready to compete for charity. he said musk won't confirm claiming he may need surgery and wants a practice round before the real thing. "barbie" taking top spot for the fourth straight weekend. bringing in $33 million in the u.s. it earned more than $1.2 billion worl worldwide. looking to plunge on the next vacation? travel web site florida panhandle listing the top ten destinations the capital of st. baart's with a $1,800 per day accommodations

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(avo) ask your doctor about once-weekly mounjaro. welcome back time for the morning call sheet. morgan stanley says nvidia has an overweight rating and $500 price target the recent selloff in the stock is a good entry point and morgan

stanley is expecting nvidia to beat results and raise guidance. top performer this year. up .10 th% pre-market marriott has run up 40% this year saying the short-term upside is limited by valuation and the slowdown of the luxury side of things bernstein is moving hiyatt in th top pick in hotels goldman sachs is upgrading teledyne from the $495 price target the maker of aerospace systems is pulling back to the track t - attractive valuation time for the global briefing wheat prices here up just

about .10% freight ship in the black sea did not respond to inspections grain supplies have been under pressure following the expiration of the deal to allow ukrainian grain to export safely to other countries taiwan resisting being invaded by china the country will not back down no matter how great the threat is to taiwan the vice president making remarks during a trip to the united states calling it an issue in taiwan. and hundreds of credit suisse share oholders are filina claim against ubs. the class action lawsuit saying the takeover denied shareholders the right to vote on the deal

and will be submitted under switzerland merger act ahead, one of the words that every investor needs to know today, plus our next guest says the second half of the year will separate the haves and have-nots. if you have not done so, follow our podcast if you miss "worldwide voteange," check us out on your fari podcast app we'll be right back. e tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. ♪"please don't go" by harry casey, richard raymond finch♪ (sfx: ping) (♪♪) ♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ please don't go.. ♪ ♪ please don't go ♪

♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ don't goooooo! ♪ (♪♪) ♪ don't go away ♪ (♪♪) ♪ please don't go ♪ well come back to "worldwide exchange." time for the wex wrap-up the forecast for gradual cuts next year. u.s. steel rejecting the

offer for purchase from cleveland clifs. u.s. steel is very viewing alternatives country garden hitting a record low after the company announced suspending trading of ten of the yuan bonds and now on the brink of default softbank in talks to purchase the 25% stake of a.r.m. holdings held by vision fund ahead of the ipo next month. thaesla is cutting prices o two models in china at $1,900 apiece this is among a price war for evs in china and growth wheat prices as china deals with heavy rains and beijing seeing the heaviest rainfall this summer this 140 years.

here is what to watch this week today is the deadline for 13-f filings and tomorrow has retail earnings with home depot and data on retail prices and manufacturing prices as well on wednesday with, target, tjx and chisco out we have housing figures and fmoc rate meeting on thursday, wallmart reports ad the philly fed survey. we wrap up with earnings from deere and palo alto networks on friday do not miss brian sullivan's interview with florida governor and republican presidential candidate ron desantis that's tonight on "last call" at 7:00 p.m it should be an interesting interview there. let's talk about where we stand in the market. let's look at real estate. one of the smallest sector in

the s&p and one you can see is xlre which is up 1% on the year to date basis. if you look within the sector and real estate overall, you look at the top performers and specific to key parts of the real estate market well tower and iron mountain and digital realty for more insight on the markets, we have chris merrill, the founder of harris street chris, the interesting part of the market is we are focused on what is a red hot residential, single family home builder trade. where do investors lookwhen they are looking outside of there for the potential growth market for enterprise or

business side of things? >> dom, thank you for having me. great to be here for us and where investors are looking and you see interest in these assets assets where demand is consistent what you aring seeing is a market with the fundamentals have never been better with the challenge of putting together capital. supply has been choked off in many markets where demand is consistent you are seeing growth in rental revenue. there are pockets of the market where this has never been a better time to be investing in commercial real estate >> it seems counterintuitive for folks out there with the stresses we saw in regional banks earlier this year and a lot of talk with the exposure to commercial real estate for small and medium lenders in the country. the threat of rising interest rates to property values and that sort of thing

amid all of those, where do you find value in some of the need-based at assets what type of companies and what type of real estate? >> our business is focused on demographics it is looking for assets where demand is consistent throughout cycles education, healthcare. big focus on student housing on-campus and off-campus medical lie science and data centers and renewable energy these are assets where you are seeing strong demand and enrollment up at public universities 80 plus cohort in population needing housing. at the same time, what wis happening is supply is choked off. it is hard to call alternative most large property investors are not talking about

traditional real estate. they are talking about with the fundamentals and alternatives. that is what we are excited about. focused on need-based assets it is like social strucinfrastre to have the risk adjusted return to investors. >> chris, that brings us to what we ask for our guests here which is the word of the day i wonder your word of the day. >> i guess i said it, dom. the word is demographic. demographic. resilience and stability and long-term demand growth. demographics bodes well in our opinion for any investment strategy that is a focus of our business. >> do you feel worried, chris, that the pandemic has changed the paradigm for higher education or the need for student housing?

more and more people could, perhaps, go toward virtual learning routes and course work at home against staying in the dorm or apartment attached to a college or university? >> that is interesting this is the second black swan we have been through. the global financial crisis and now this before this period of time, that was the discussion in meetings with our investors how was online learning going to affect the university setting? that was debunked. i think people recognized that online learning did not work educators did not like it. students did not like it teachers did not like it we have never seen fundamentals stronger in the housing sector in 15 years. we saw that in senior housing. a big concern about what was going to happen in senior

housing. we had nine positive quarter in housing. we have more occupied units in senior housing than pre-pandemic levels it was a safe place to take care of a loved one in many ways, the pandemic highlighted the strength of demographic investing. >> chris, we have a few seconds left here. what do you think of the economy in 2024? >> you know, i think there are uncer uncertainties. we see inflation come into check. the nice thing about what we are seeing is people are grasping at peak interest rate levels and if they come down in second quarter or third quarter, as i have been talking about the key lps, people are comfortable that there is more clarity in the market as where we have hit with the rate standpoint. more people are ready to come back into the market we will see a2024. >> all right chris merrill, thank you we appreciate it >> thanks, dom.

"squawk box" is coming up next let's check on futures we are marginally bid. 49 points to upside. "squawk box" is coming up next

good morning goldman sachs is out with the new call expect the fed to start cutting rates in the second quarter next year. and u.s. steel is exploring options after receiving multiple unsolicited bids to buy the company. it rejected an offer from rival cleveland cliffs. and sam bankman-fried behind bars after the judge rejected bail it is monday, august 14th, 2023.

"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm kelly evans along with joe kernen >> thank you thank you for being here >> andrew and becky are off today. >> in terms of easing my way back. >> how is the transition >> it is good. it is better i appreciate you being here. it seems like -- a soft landing, which is what they are expecting in the economy. >> things got better you were gone two weeks? one? three? >> big fan >> four? >> i was gone two. it seemed like 12. >> it did. >> if you feel that yo