"squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm kelly evans along with joe kernen >> thank you thank you for being here >> andrew and becky are off today. >> in terms of easing my way back. >> how is the transition >> it is good. it is better i appreciate you being here. it seems like -- a soft landing, which is what they are expecting in the economy. >> things got better you were gone two weeks? one? three? >> big fan >> four? >> i was gone two. it seemed like 12. >> it did. >> if you feel that you can do

it, where people aren't going to say joe who? if you feel you can do it, you should do two. it gets you to the point where you need to be you will -- >> you are revealing -- >> i can give you a hint the average real heat feel was 115. >> and you weren't out west? >> no. that's a dry heat. this is a humid -- >> is that hot >> a place called the golden isle you have to google it. >> what state? >> georgia >> heat index 115? >> yes you can fly into jacksonville. why people go there in august? i don't know i havdon't have an answer you have time coming up?

>> it may be a good time of year to go to georgia >> quite the price to pay to get a couple months off. you have some experience dow is up 53 points right now. continuing the snap of green after what had been more diff difficult. maybe it is joe being back s&p up ten points and nasdaq by 46 stocks sliding in asia let's mention treasuries this is what is interesting. green in equities. look what is happening with 10 and 30 the 30 at 4.26 there are people who are concerned about the long end you see us going with back to recent highs that's where i feel there was pressure on equities as you move throughout the day or week >> i was happy we weren't as inn

v -- inverted the 10/2 what struck me is before i left, the permanently wrong people that we have on cnbc finally were changing their tune and we made no headway. >> you realize you are sitting next to t-bill and chill >> the minute we stalled out >> we start selling off. >> all the way up to 4,500 on the s&p. okay >> when you saw them throw in the towel, do you think it is time to get caught >> some did not throw in the towel. they got in the year-end target of 4,400 they have to get above 4,000

they are trying to convince their people that employ them that i have some value although i don't know what i'm talking about. >> barry will be here. >> he has been right. >> is he longer term bearish >> we'll get to that we'll talk to him about that he's one of the guys that's been a long way >> i agree stocks sliding in asia nikkei and hong kong down 1% china credit data for july slowed in demand with the borrowing of money and households down with a 18% drop in country garden holdings in a filing over the weekend, they expect to post the worst lost since going public 16 years ago and will suspend trading of bonds. the company missed $22.5 million

of payments and has a 30-day grace period to come up with the money. the japanese yen reached the 145 mark against the u.s. dollar the last time the yen was here, the japanese government and boj stepped in to buy at 145 the dollar is below that it is weakening since the adjustment on the yield curve last month that sent the government bond yields to the highest level in years. that is the concern of the global economy >> the positive view. >> right goldman sachs is out with the new call expecting the fed to start cutting rates some time in the second quarter of next year this is a note from the economic team which predicted the fed will reduce rates gradually. 25 basis points per quarter starting in june and stabilize

them at 3% to 3.25%. that is in line with the futures market goldman says core inflation has slowed enough to warrant one final rate hike likely in november, but warns of the significant risk that rates could still hold steady if inflation doesn't cool fast enough enough it is always a weird dynamic that we almost -- we didn't want a recession, but we thought one was necessary to the cool things off. when you are not getting one, you are back thinking inflation is not going to come down enough and we need more rate hikes. i think that is why the markets stalled out. as perverse as it is, when it seems you are not having a recession, the fed has more work to do. >> exactly by the way, on the first rate cuts, the market has first rate cuts priced in this is not a news flash

>> no one believes it. when goldman says it, i don't know you believe it more than the markets. >> you think now we begin the process of hearing about it from the fed and then having to explain it are they on board? the interesting thing is if the hike matters the way inflation is moving. that is what they do is passively tighten they want to keep the spread the same it is complicated. >> the economy doesn't contract credit by itself you think the fed has to come in and do more work >> exactly shares of u.s. steel -- >> i've known that i used to buy like an idiot, u.s. steel preferred eventually it -- bethlehem steel preferred. it never came back >> $5 billion with the market cap. >> newcore took it

what are the mills called? >> i remember the certain technology the joke are saying they should have sold the ticker to elon musk u.s. steel is reviewing alternatives after receiving multiple unsolicited bids for all or part of the business. cleveland cliffs proposed to buy u.s. steel on june 28th in a private offer. this was surprising. cleveland cliffs shares down 8%. the offer was rejected by u.s. steel. the cash and stock offer would have valued the company at $7 billion. the ceo of cleveland cliffs is on "squawk on the street" in the 11:00 a.m. hour.

>> that is a $7 billion company. >> cleveland cliffs. it would rarely come up in that discussion good on them if they feel they had a period of strength for the stocks >> you can't believe you would ever be talking about this seriously category the potential cage match with mark zuckerberg and elon musk appears to be off in the post on threads, as well as two or three other posts on the social media outlet, zuckerberg said elon isn't serious and it is time to move on i think that is funny that he is kind of throwing shade at elon for not being serious about a cage match was he getting played? who thought this was a good idea they were going to go to the coliseum >> did you see the messages with

walter >> i saw walter -- he said musk would not confirm a date then he said he needed surgery he asked to do a practice round. zuckerberg's backyard. zuckerberg will focus on competing with people who take the sport seriously. he does do the martial arts stuff. elon is a big dude mark is not necessarily. it is like wwe i never took it seriously than wwe which is a huge moneymaker i think bombastic agent ari manuel -- they make money on it. everybody knows it is fake is it real >> it is fun to think it could be real. >> musk replied on x calling

zuckerberg chicken joking that he can't eat at chick-fil-a because that would be can -- tweeted an image of the text he received from musk at 4:40 a.m. showing that musk proposed a practice bout at zuckerberg's house this week you don't watch movies i can't do any references. >> for everybody else. >> whofor everybody who with understands me that is something in "the social network. when mark zuckerberg said chicken to chickens. that was part of the horrible person he was. it was -- the guy who played "spider-man. one character and he ratted out

zuckerberg at harvard. he said chicken, chicken it is awful circle >> a fascinating snapshot. i love the tweet first of all an, you see elon is under the phone book in 2022 you see the interaction between musk and zuckerberg is fascinating. they seem friendly you wonder -- >> maybe they are. >> they are talking about we can do it here and we can do it there. it sounded like musk would be up for it. >> for people who are saying how horrible it was and terrible commentary on modern society lighten up >> odds are so slim it would happen. >> and you know, lighten up. both guys are worth how much look at what they have done with the impact on the world? each of them they don't need to prove anything to me >> the only time anyone has

talked about threads in recent weeks is zuckerberg trolling musk on the platform musk is genius and zuckerberg has some benefit, too. >> i like musk i'm nothing like him in terms of non filters. i filter myself. he doesn't if i could do that -- that's why i respect him. he owns the damn social media site where he can do whatever he wants. i can't. i come close coming up, a busy week of economic data and retail earnings qua squawk planner is next futures right now are happy that kelly is here and i'm back to earth. in the green nasdaq up 59 s&p. we will see if we can get back on track with this rally don't miss brian sullivan's

interview with presidential candidate ron desantis on "last call" tonight at 7:00 p.m. "squawk box" is coming right back >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by ibm. ibm. let's create be more effic i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create.

(fan #1) there ya go! that's what i'm talkin' about! what will you create? (josh allen) is this your plan to watch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is? myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. (hero fan) this plan is amazing! (josh allen) another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. (fan #1) that was josh allen. (fan #2) mmhm. (vo) for a limited time get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. a $449 value. plus, get a free samsung galaxy z flip5. only on verizon.

nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing.

yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. on this squawk planner,

retail earnings. home depot and target and tjx and cisco. thursday brings walmart and coke parent tapestry. and as for economic data, retail sales and import and export prices for july. wednesday is housing starts and the minutes from the recent fed meeting. on thursday, the closely watched jobless claims joining us on the market is barry bannister. you can clear up some of the discussion we had earlier, barry. maybe your ears were burning glad to have you back on you were bullish for most of the rally, unlike 95%, probably of your peers you think we have seen the best near-term that we will get >> it was always hard to have a traditional recession when you helicopter drop more money than you spend on world war ii in

inflation adjusted dollars due to covid everybody was sitting on cash from corporates to individuals and there was more than enough reason why we could afford the inflation that we had. the issue now is if real wages rise, do we get productivity if we don't have productivity, we will have high core inflation which is called unit labor costs feeding through. if that is the case, the fed will have to sky tay higher for longer that is the question the market is waiting for an answer that is why the second half has been choppy since june. >> it's a tough one. everybody that's making calls, barry, are not like us in their 30s or 40s. do you remember something called stimulus does that ever work? i think we could do it, obviously, for a while and get high gdp, couldn't we? what normally happens is that

eventually you have to pay the piper and interest rates go up and you don't have money left to do anything that you wanted to do in the first place. that is, in a nutshell, is that called bidenomics? >> economies tend to be dogmatic i know every economic theory that made fame and fortune has applicable moments the stimulus if you pull it off in both directions, tighten when you should and loosen when you should you know, we added way too much demand particularly for goods. we didn't produce those goods. we helicopter dropped federally financed demand with debt on to the economy.

>> wages went up, but the inflation that was engendered -- what is bidenomics building it from the middle out? what do you think they're talking about with bidenomics? >> that's the other thing. when you mix the dogmatic economist with the impatience of politicians, you end up with a toxic mix. politicians have to work on a two-to-four year election cycle. this process may take a generation to change when you try to do it too quickly such as dropping this much money on the economy in a short period of time, you end up with distortions the fed also has distorted interest rates they are trying to make up for the fact they were distorting rates for 20 years by raising rates very aggressively the last

year these things all take time they cause raucous in the market we are correcting mistakes that took years to develop. >> you are bullish because of all that money are you less bullish now because of the gravy train ends and realities of the world finally set in when will we get new all-time highs in the s&p what year? >> that's just it. if you look at october to june last october to june, we were bullish. now i'm saying it is flat for the rest of the year i doubt inflation adjusted terms, meaning real termsad adjusted for cpi the last peak was december of 2021 in today's money terms, s&p 500 index, which is 4,500 currently,

it was 5,250 i doubt we see that for a couple more years we are saying flat the rest of the year we are doing tactical trades we are doing tech stocks and materials. we are not really in the market that has the sustained channel it is not a bull market any more it was for nine months now it is too late to make that call if somebody is trying to do so >> we muddled through at 2%. do we get a recession? do we get back to strong growth? what do we see in the next couple years as far as the economy? >> i'll tell you, joe, the problem is that by not having an economic reset like you associate with recession, you actually end up with inflation on the other side. as we bump up against resource

constraints, we have a vertical supply curve and only so much labor. prime age work force is pretty much fully employed now. 25 to 55 is the prime age. when you bump up against those, the fed could signal higher for longer which i'm interested in jackson hole because that is the message. they will talk not about the short-term, but the long-term need to keep contained for higher for longer. when that occurs, the stock market would pull back and economic risk of recession >> you know inflation is multifaceted, but energy is one of the primary issues. that can come roaring back it has a little bit. that has me a little bit

concerned. stifel that is just one of your offices. that is a nice facility. do you visit people out there? do you visit people in the rank-and-file? i pass it every day going to the lifetime >> it is a good office we have a big office in every major city new york, san francisco, baltimore, maryland. come on down and visit there we're also -- >> all right barry. barry bannister. sounds like a superhero. >> is he bearish or bullbullish. >> are you bearish, barry? >> long term, you will have a hard time making what you are making right now on stock treasuries >> i don't know.

i'm always bullish long term stocks go up you still buy? you still sleep with the light on in treasuries >> barry, thank you. coming up, sam bankman-fried is behind bars after the judge revoked bail. here are the big efgest wins and losers in the s&p. "squawk box" will be right back. earn and keep trust. build and maintain financial strength and stability. deliver solutions that meet complex needs. do right by customers, clients, and policyholders, always. repeat daily for over one hundred and seventy years. massmutual. partnering with financial professionals, benefits brokers, and institutions. ♪

how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪ this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

you can't buy great conversations or moments that matter, but you can invest in them. at t. rowe price our strategic investing approach can help you build the future you imagine. t. rowe price, invest with confidence.

welcome back let's get the latest on the wildfire disaster in hawaii. the death hole has reached 96

maui's police chief says they searched 3% of the homes a class action lawsuit alleges it could have been avoided if the utilities upgrade thd the gd it did say high wind protocols were followed. fbi teams are on the scene to investigate the cause of the fire coming up, president biden requesting $40 billion in emergency funding from congress. we break it down and talk about the bidenomics next. "squawk box" will rhtacbeig bk.

power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. and stay on top of the market. baby i hear one every night... every night. okay. i'll work on that. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds. shop now only at sleep number. mlb chooses t-mobile for business for 5g solutions... ...to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from nasdaq market site in times square we have pressure from higher bond yields and selling pressure in japan and china overnight

lawmakers face a ticking clock when they return from labor day recess they have an appropriations bill to pass to keep the government running. president biden is seeking emergency spending for ukraine aid and disaster relief and border and immigration efforts joining us now is donna edwards and judd gregg we said we would talk about bidenomics i am still trying to get a firm grasp. we understand washington and how branding across the board happens. what is your view of what bidenomics is, congresswoman edm edw edwards? how would you describe it? >> i think the president is talking about the measures which have been put in place the last two years. those are starting to take effect on the economy. we have seen inflation coming

down and we have seen steady growth in wages and jobs i think the president is talking about and i understand the full scope of the economic measures which have been put in place they really are starting to kick in now in the economy and i think americans are beginning to feel that and certainly over the next year or so with the infrastructure projects that are going in place and manufacturing jobs that are being brought back to the united states the economy is starting to kick in and i think biden branded that as bidenomics and it works for me >> judd, there is blame regardless of a direct result of the policies there is no doubt that the p pandemic stimulus helped the

economy stay strong and some gdp prints do you think the chips act or infrastructure act or i.r.a. -- has enough of it been implemented to see the effects of that yet? >> what you have here is industrial policy on steroids. the government regulators and academics and elitists who sit in the government seats pick winners and losers in the marketplace and spend massive amounts of money and we with w will have a $1 trillion deficit as you described you stated the government is pouring money into the groups of people and this administration sees as beneficial such as labor unions and green movement and students under the student loan

proposal the practical effect of that is in the long term, it undermines the capital economy. the marketplace is a more efficient way of picking losers and winners and undermines the growth of the nation to have a government that is progressive >> bringing it back to the congresswoman in a second. you can spend money and have gdp go up, but if inflation, as a result of that, wages don't keep up with inflation. that is why bidenomics, until april or may, that people were doing better for two years, they weren't keeping up the wage gains with the price of inflation thaflt can -- inflation. that can happen again. >> that is not happening now. >> it is not driven primarily by

biden's economic policies. it was coming out of the covid with the explosion of economic activity and contraction of the supply chain and the massive amount of money put into the system by the fed which take as lot of responsibility. >> someone was putting money in. too much money for too few goods. congre congresswoman, people are not making more money than they were two years ago. until just recently, wages started going up you would concede that inflation is a real problem for a lot of people in the country. >> obviously inflation has taken a bite what we have seen over the last couple months is wages are going upg up greater than inflation. that is a good sign for the economy. pardon me. since when eisenhower we haven't described investment

infrastructure as a downer that pays back over and over again and our infrastructure has been falling apart i think creating jobs, whether union jobs by investing in infrastructure is a good thing bringing manufacturing, chips in particular and bringing that manufacturing back onshore to the united states is a positive. as much as the federal government is investing, so is the private sector investing in the industries that had gone to china and overseas those are coming back. not only the jobs coming back, but the manufacturing so we can be independent in our technology production it's good for the economy. investing in electric vehicle infrastructure is good for the economy. i think we're just beginning to see the results of these

economic investments and they will pay back over and over again. that's just an economic fact when you invest in infrastructure. >> what do you think, judd >> it is not good for the economy if you are orunning massive deficits in the end, this will reduce the standard of living for all americans. you have to pay the piper. you cannot have $32 trillion of debt when we started out with $8 trillion 12 years ago. you cannot have $106 trillion deficits as far as the eye can see to buy constituents who you think will vote for you? you want to do that for students why would you do that and harm their future and the rest of the economy's future who has to pay for the students who were supposed to pay student debt

back sure, capital investment in infrastructure makes sense i agree with the congresswoman on that. when you make that expense, you have to pay for it you have to do it within the context of the budgetthat is near balanced. 2% deficit we can afford you cannot run 1$1.2 trillion deficit every year you are talking debt-to-gdp ratio of 20% to 30% by 2030. that makes greece look solve v - solvent. at some point, you have to wake up and say you have so much debt and they take it out on the dollar and that reduces the standard of living by all americans. it gets you elected next year, but it undermines the prospect of americans >> you have a quick answer,

congresswoman? >> i like to see, obviously, a decline in the deficit the money that judd talked about with spending is what we put back into the economy which is good students buy houses. they spend their money that is good for the economy i think wishful thinking is this doesn't work politically and maybe it harms us. the reality is i think the american people will realize in infrastructure and investing in the young people and their future really does stimulate the economy. >> great congresswoman edwards, thank you. senator judd gregg, thank you. good to have you on. >> thank you >> did you >> yeah. >> the entire time

they are like wawa for cars. the next day when no one could charge it. >> you need to move to a better town where you don't have these. >> things happen from nature as we know -- >> the trees with the tops cut off after august >> let's say you don't -- it is not a town >> one of the -- >> what if you can't plug it in at home? >> i want to diversify sydon't want just ea >> not buying one now. ically a ts e cash back in your top eligible spend category. hi. ♪♪ you don't have to keep tabs on rotating categories... this is the only rotating i care about. ... or activate anything to earn. your cash back automatically adjusts for you. can i get a cucumber water? earn 5% cash back that automatically adjusts

to your top eligible spend category, up to $500 spent each billing cycle with the citi custom cash℠ card. i love it... [voice vibrating] we've got your back, road warriors. because we know you're picking up the pace, steering life at 10 and 2. you're hitting the road... and we're helping you get there with confidence. so skip the counter without missing a beat. choose any car in the aisle. and be the boss of you. go national. go like a pro. how can you sleep on such a firm setting? gab, mine is almost the same as yours.

almost is just another word for not as good as mine. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds. shop now only at sleep number. new nature's bounty hair growth. clinically shown to help grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again. only from nature's bounty. pano ai chooses t-mobile for business for 5g solutions... ...because t-mobile helps pano ai innovate, so they can stop the spread of wildfires. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

sam bankman-fried is behind bars after the judge revoked bail due to alleged witness tampering. sam bankman-fried was sent to the metro detention center in brooklyn where he is expected to remain until the criminal trial in october he ignored rulings from the judge to refrain from speaking to the media or evading his bail conditions i don't know anything about that place. do you >> the prison? >> detention center. >> no. i don't think he is happy.

you could see the footage a little bit >> you get locked in a room, it's not pleasant. >> ai agree. >> i don't know specifically whether -- there are notorious places you don't want to spend time. >> it is not rikers. it's a big week for retail earnings coming up, the reports to wah.tc that is straight ahead "squawk box" will be right back. by, onlyme nig you know you are retired right? am i? ya! save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds. shop now only at sleep number. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado.

start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) constant contact's advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. there are some things that go better... together. burger and fries... soup and salad. like your workplace benefits and retirement savings. with voya, considering all your financial choices together can help you make smarter decisions. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

book a work trip. earn onekeycash. shake some hands. do not forget to laugh. [laughing] book a get-away-from-work trip. use onekeycash. order some sides. do not disturb. join one key to earn and use rewards across expedia, hotels.com, and vrbo.

welcome back time for some sidewalk picks retail earnings are on deck this week we've got target, walmart, estee

lauder, a few of the big names reporting results. let's bring in oliver chen good morning to you. >> great being here with you. >> a way, estee lauder might grab my attention there with everything that is going on in china. are they on your coverage list >> they are, yeah. >> i mean, what do you think >> we're cautious in the earnings we think guidance could be lower. there was a cybersecurity incident the big focus, two regions, high non and korea. they've been losing share to other luxury companies >> wait a minute, let me stop you there. so hinon a region in china >> yes >> if estee lauder is losing share, in a way i don't care that much. i feel bad for them, if they're doing poorly because the chinese commune is under pressure, which of the two is it, do you think >> they're losing share to other luxury players such as fashion,

handbags, footwear, that's what's happening in the near-term. you could get beauty products during the depths of the pandemic it's been a little problematic there. the guidance has been too aggr aggressive that's something to watch. the chinese consumer has been mixed, but it's optimistic what we're seeing in luxury goods is a slightly weaker u.s., and an asian customer who's holding up apac numbers have been generally strong. >> you know our eunice yoon is wo wonderful. we were talking to her on friday i said some of the companies lately, wyndham, for instance was on our show, eunice in beijing said i'm surprised to say that anybody would say the consumer is doing better that is not the impression she's giving or it seems that the country is giving off right now. >> in china there may or may not be a stimulus. that would be a nice positive. youth unemployment is fairly

high we're watching that. the good thing is there's likely no more lockdowns, but luxury trends long-term, it is all about china that emerging middle class. >> yeah. so target, walmart, i don't mean to joverlook them. walmart, it seems like they've been able to gain share. whether or not they can put up back right numbers, who knows. target a little more tricky. they're more discretionary they had some issues in june what do you think about going into this week like what stocks do you think are best positioned? >> yeah, wekelly, what we like this week, it's walmart. target's been a lot more under pressure we think the gross margin estimates are too high we're looking for a slightly negative comp, a positive comp at walmart with plus 4 walmart has about 60% grocery exposure that adds a lot more stability the consumer discretionary trends have been negative, and

that's been a big issue. consumer still has money, but the consumer is being very choiceful and contemplative. keep in mind the labor market's tight, which is a positive also nominal wage growth is growing above inflation. travel is taking share as well as inflation, and that's negatively impacting parts of target like home, apparel, discretionary. >> this is a little bit what joe and everyone was talking about a little while ago when we say that consumer, the discretionary is under pressure and they're being a little choi choicey, this is more of the goods facing part of the economy, than we would if it was the airlines or ticket vendors or those kinds of players. is it a rotation or a broader kind of softening going on >> it is a rotation. there's $860 billion of savings on the sidelines, and what's happening is normalization, where the consumer is going back to pre-pandemic tendencies but what we're seeing is a

consumer using money for inflationary goods such as home essentials and beauty, and also the consumer traveling again there's lots of spending power and the labor market is tight. that's evidence. however, the shifts have happened very rapidly in terms of the product assortments on average, inventories are running 15% below sales. that's a positive too in terms of changing inventories as quickly as possible. our picks are the top share leaders, walmart, costco, as well as lvmh walmart is also getting a higher income customer. based on our survey, 9% growth at over 100k. >> is the controversy over for target i mean, the stock price, you don't attribute any of that to woke and broke >> we're watching it what's happening is it's a very diversified product line

target has bigger issues in terms of consumer demand. >> there's target. you can't tell me that some of that's not -- you go -- >> we had so many -- we had issues, joe, before. >> i know, i know you had inventory issues they messed up what they had on shelves. budweiser hasn't had any issues? disney hasn't had any issues with those things? >> target is a very twdiversifi product assortment. >> they've had a lot of screwups other than apparel. >> all of retail has had issues in terms of these issues shrink's another problem too student loans are another problem too. we're really looking at across a lot of cautionary issues in addition to thinking about inclusivity, diversity, and thinking about the new younger customer too >> it's a pretty big fwap. it's like a 50 point gap since last -- >> the share leaders, walmart's the number one grosser, costco -- >> there's nothing there what

we're talking about? nothing there -- >> well part of the issue is there's such a high correlation to earnings and stock prices and target's earnings have -- >> there's a bigger correlation to earnings to sales. >> there is, there is. >> if you've got 30% of the population that won't go to target anymore. >> based on our data target -- the traffic is positive. it's positive at both walmart and target, and keep in mind, this is the year of returning to the store. it's also not a mono brand, there are hundreds of thousands of products within target, but target does stand for inclusivity. th they think about that in a modern way it matters for employees and the labor market is height. >> all right ko coming up. >> oliver, thanks. >> this morning's biggest movers, coming up next, "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: squawk picks is

sponsored by wisdom tree, the modern alpha pioneer ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) constant contact delivers the marketing tools your small business needs to keep up, excel, and grow. constant contact. helping the small stand tall.

new nature's bounty hair growth. clinically shown to help grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again. only from nature's bounty. have fun, sis! ( ♪♪ )

( ♪♪ ) can't stop adding stuff to your cart? get the bank of america customized cash rewards card, choose the online shopping category and earn 3% cash back. permission to dig in? granted. breyers carbsmart is so rich, so creamy, it tastes totally off-limits. but with only 4 grams of net carbs in every delicious serving, you've got the green light. better starts with breyers. good morning retail earnings in focus this week as wall street looks to shake off a rough start to august futures edging higher on this monday morning

monday super monday u.s. steel, symbol x rejecting a 7-plus billion dollars officer from rival cleveland-cliffs, a look at those stocks and others on the move this morning. plus, former controller david walker, walker taxes ranger we call him david walker calling for congress and the president to put the nation's fiscal health in order he joins us live as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning, and welcome back to "squawk box" on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square, one down. >> coming out swinging. >> two to go. >> three hours i'm back kelly's here to ease the pain,

to ease the withdrawal it's not withdrawal, it's reengagement, i think. i'm good, becky and andrew are off today. i think andrew is back tomorrow. i don't know when becky's back. >> i think next week. >> thank you >> thank you for having me >> you're welcome. u.s. equity futures this morning are in the green people are in a good mood even for a monday nasdaq up 55 and the s&p up 12 or 10. treasuries still don't have a five-year -- or i'm sorry, a 5%, two-year, even though we have seen the ten-year ticking higher, and then oil, you know, gasoline prices we've heard about how great gasoline prices are. they're like double from what they were when biden took office maybe not double, but much higher. >> well, the last six weeks all of a sudden has reversed the narrative considerably >> yeah, 82, 83, tight labor market, supply chain, all that

stuff, but you get energy -- if you get back to 90 or 100 -- >> i totally agree totally agree. big risk already you know to though what moved the needle the most, saudi i was looking at the numbers trying to figure tout. that's probably had the biggest impact politically if biden wanted to do something on this, that's where he's got to lean is on the s sa saudis. >> is there an election coming up yeah, there is. >> a couple of great choices awesome. >> dom chu gets my vote. >> we do know, joe, kelly, that there are two things americans care the most about in this kind of environment are egg prices and gasoline prices so we'll keep an eye on both of those a clek on the mergers and acquisition front, at least when it comes to a lack of a deal this is u.s. steel saying rejected to an unsolicited bid by cleveland-cliffs to take over the steel maker it does everything from mine

iron ore to making flat rolled steel. it offered to pay roughly $7.25 billion in a mix of cash and stock. u.s. steel says it will start a strategic review of options. u.s. steel shares up 27% premarket. cleveland-cliffs down roughly 2% if you take a look at both stocks, they both jurnld performed the broader market this year. a hypothetical combination of the two would craeate one of th biggest steel producers in the world. we will hear much more when ceo lourenco goncalves joins us later this morning on the analyst front we're tracking shares of nvidia, 125,000 shares of volume, the ship maker and best performing stock in the s&p is being named a top pick at morgan stanley they say the recent stock pullback by 15% from record hays presents a good entry point to

bite shares. that stock remains an overweight weighting with a $500 price target shares of retail companies, since retail will be getting a lot of attention over the the next couple of weeks for earnings reports analysts at evercore have put an outperform rating on walmart walmart shares up one-half of 1% they had looked for a beat in raise quarter for america's biggest traditional retailer at the same time, tactical underperform for b.j.'s wholesale saying there's a near-term downside catalyst given disinflationary headwinds on the retail front, walmart is this week. b.j.'s will report next weekment big retail numbers, consumer looks. >> dom, thank you very much. >> when's the last time we had a back to back -- with did glover win a playoff or something >> yeah, he won a playoff. it was pretty dramatic listen, two wins in a row is

tough to do anything on the pga tour to do it into the fedex playoffs is pretty impressive i think >> you know where he plays, right? sea island guy, frederica guy, l lucas glover. >> i've only been there once, and it was less than 24 hours on the ground. >> you follow me on twitter? >> i do follow you on twitter. >> i wasn't going to tweet at all. i had to i ran into brian harman. >> this is the season of sea island's affiliated golfers, i think. >> you're right. harris english you know, have any idea -- >> anybody who goes down -- >> listen, i was at a golf tournament myself yesterday. >> you were at a maga golf tournament >> i went to the liv tournament. >> you're admitting that. >> this is how desperate my husband and i are for something to do. >> kelly's husband did text me asking about some little reconnaissance work on going to liv bedminster he was like should we bring the kids thank god we didn't.

the walk from the parking lot to the event i almost didn't make it. >> did you see any famous orange people >> i was going to say phil mickelson until you said orange -- golf is still a very hit driven -- by the way we did see trump. i didn't know he was there. >> which orange person did you think i was talking about? >> that was the first time aye been to a pro golf event i've got a lot to learn. >> i went to the event in bedminster last year. >> great course. >> it's a fantastic golf course. for those people who have not been to a liv event versus a traditional pga tour event the vibe is very friendly. >> the music wasn't that loud. it's not like an nba game and the way they do it where they start everyone at the same time. for someone like me who's not that into it, you're like, okay, it maoves along you can stay in one spot. >> we had a big kfconversation about all the weird games,

betting that they do maybe there's something there. >> the teams, strange, but kind of fun to check out. >> all right, thanks, dom. i knew i could -- knew we could talk. despite sign z of easing inflation, long-term interest rates have edged higher not just in the u.s. but globally as well following the bank of japan's recent move to loosen its yield curve control, and our next guest said this will have major ramifications for this country bleakly financial group's chief investment officer and also the book var report, book report, editor peter boockvar joins us now. he isalso a cnbc contributor such a small move and after so many years, it is significant i guess. why will it have so many ramifications for us i'm talking aboutwidening the ban, raising the ban >> i think over the last couple of years when we look at where all the excess is from, global

monetary policy, it was reflected in sovereign bonds and with negative interest rates being sort of the ep pit mee of massive bobble, so now that we have the reversal of that, the boj is the last major central bank holdout to tighten policy when yields rise in europe, they rise in the u.s. when yields rise in japan, they rise in the u.s. and europe. we're all highly correlated in terms of the moves in interest rates. with respect to the boj in particular, widening the band also makes jgbs more attractive. japan's the largest holder of u.s. treasuries from a foreign perspective. there's potentially flows that leave the u.s. and go to japan, and i think it's just this sovereign bond unwind. markets got comfortable that inflation was moderating, the fed's almost done raising interest rates thinking that it was all clear, and i think this rise in longer term yields took us all by surprise because of

the bank of japan moving quicker than we thought. but maybe for the first time ever, u.s. stats and deficits actually matter, and i say that for the first time ever because it was the 1980s when people were first talking about, oh, my god, the u.s. budget deficit is getting out of control, and here we are 40 plus years later, and it hasn't mattered, but meaning this time it does matter. >> jed, greg was on talking about debt to gdp. it's never been this high and he thinks by 2030 it could be 130, 135% is there any way to stop that? >> the only way is to grow out of it because those debt levels are still going to rise by that pace, particularly because of all the entitlement programs, and you just need to grow faster than that, and you know, that's going to be the big question right now of course we're not. debt is growing much faster than the rate of gdp growth and because we are a debt or a

credit dependent economy, the changes in the cost of capital has a notable impact on u.s. economic growth because we've relied less on savings and more on credit to grow, and this is an adjustment that's going to take years for us to get accustomed to. this higher rate environment. >> it's probably not a great lesson we'll learn if we completely avoid a recession after the binge in fiscal or monetary spending, if we get a soft landing, does that make us think we can do this again and again and again. do you think we're going to have a recession anymore, peter >> i do, but we may even have a soft one the question is not just if we have a modest recession. it's how quickly can we rebound. for how long do we see little growth if we grow 1%, there's no growth, or we decline by 1%, it's all going to feel the same. i think as this higher cost of

capital sort of ensnares more and more businesses, more and more households, i think we have a period of time of pretty anemic economic growth again, a soft landing hard l landing, a hard landing sometimes is good where you bounce back pretty quickly a soft laning where you don't bounce back much may not be any better i'm more worried about a death by a thousand cuts situation here again as we have to deal with this higher cost of capital and more cash is allocated to interest expense rather than growth in hiring. >> all right from what i take away from you we need growth, but we're not going to get it. we will hit 130% or 135%. >> we won't credit for the next couple of years, but having positive interest rates -- >> it's not going to get any better how are we going to grow what are we going to grow from all the -- these plans that

we're implementing the ever grow from government spending, does that ever work where you actually get gdp growth long-term from spending >> it's only a short-term fill we need the private sector that's our only savior here, joe. >> all right thanks, peter. >> welcome backment. >> thank you thank you. >> coming up, we're following the money flow from venture capitalists into health tech and longevity companies. we'll speak to the copartner of prime time partners. and he's making this call in the wake of the fitch downgrade of the u.s. credit rating he'll join us to discuss that shortly, "squawk box" will be right back lp grow thicker, fuller hair with just one capsule a day of advanced hair complex. conquer hair thinning... ...and fall in love with your hair all over again.

only from nature's bounty. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

nice footwork. investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back alzheimer's drugs from eli lilly are offering promise to the 6.5 million americans living with the disease here for more on how innovation from big pharma is affecting venture capital flows we bring in abby miller levy, it's great to have you here we brought up alzheimer's. is that the primary place that funds are heading? >> absolutely. it's a great question. i work in the longevity sector, which is about a $2 trillion

industry across everything from health care to financial services to housing. and within that alzheimer's research is probably the largest funding base in life sciences. >> right alzheimer's. and because finally it's showing a financial return once you can bring some drugs to market and they appear to be working, i can kind of understand how it works out. a lot of other longevity things, connect the dots for me on what makes for a good investment. >> what makes for a good investment in this space is recognizing that the population is going to double in size in terms of those age 65 and older. and within that, there becomes a whole slew of services that's required to help us age more successfully health care services unlock that in terms of all the aging in place opportunities. you have opportunities in senior living and real estate rebounding post-covid. but if you look at the drug makers, what's very interesting

about the alzheimer's drug is that actually it hasn't had a huge impact yet on the stock prices of the companies formulating and distributing these drugs, and that is because we are just in the early innings of proving efficacy. the most recent drug by a japanese pharmaceutical maker shows that the efficacy is around a 27% delay in symptoms of alzheimer's that is also inhibited by the distribution method, which is still intravenous, which requires a huge lift on half of the health care system this is really early innings of the research evolving to target the proteins causing alzheimer's, and we will see a lot more in this sector. for me -- go ahead. >> i want to get your answer it's exciting when you see these startups like neurotrack and brain check and ripple what were you going to say in terms of the investment piece?

>> now that there is finally availability of pharmaceuticals, it is unlocking what we need in the health care system we need better diagnostics like brain check and neurotrack there's $100 million fund funded by gates and bezos and lauder to work on new diagnostics. we need to improve our new diagnostic side of the industry. we need to improve our care management of the industry there's a 19% shortage of neurologists new telemedicare management businesses are starting to address this shortage, and then of course there's prevention, which is really more of a consumer health care play because most of the prevention is around delaying or removing the amyloid protein buildup in the brain, which is behavioral health such as, you know, inflammation, what you eat, sleep, et cetera so all of those three areas are really hot topics right now in health care. >> the cost of capital is higher than it once was venture, you know, silicon valley should we say is a little

bit quieter than it once was i was reading at jpmorgan, his kind of postmortem of the ipo and spac wave of the past couple of years, and interestingly enough the worst culprits were the biotech ipos they were terrible performers. for people who are like i've been burned in bio tech, i don't want to go to that route do you have to maintain biotech exposure for that one unicorn that's going to break out or would you say go the treatment and diagnostic and some of those other routes >> right now all the money is still in pharmaceuticals and when it comes to alzheimer's and dementia, and that is abecause the average price is around $26,000 per patient per year on these drugs which right now medicare has approved and medicare covers 70% of patients with alzheimer's and dementia. i still think biotech is where the opportunity to make money,

but you have to have that risk on file and not be an uneducated investor in the space. so i citstill think it's a goodc to be. m&a in health care is up 60% in terms of digital health care this year over last year and there are a lot of incumbents waiting on the sidelines for this huge bubble of digital health to rationalize, frankly, and almost run out of money so they can scoop them up. >> ha, that's a great point, kind of through the entire life cycle, so to speak, of that route as well. thanks for your time today we appreciate it. >> great to be here. >> coming up, a tug of war between higher oil prices and president biden's oil policy >> it's low. >> you didn't refill it when it was down in the 6s.

>> i think last week our friend said it was going to be run out by the end of the year to normalish level. we'll get an outlook for energy and talk about prices at the pump check out the futures, this morning we are in the green across board, less so than we were earlier we'll be right back. dick's sporting goods has everything you need to upgrade both. find top-rated drivers and irons from callaway, taylormade, titleist and ping. tour balls from your favorite brands. and the most dapper styles from travismathew and walter hagen to calia and lady hagen. you handsome devil. select the best golf shoes like footjoy, nike and more. and get back on the course with one-hour pick up. look good and play great with gear from dick's sporting goods.

now the latest on the wildfire sdisaster in hawaii the death toll reached 96 and authorities warn that the effort to find and identify the dead was still in the early stages. maui's police chief said crews with cadaver dogs had covered just 3% of the search area as of yesterday. beyond comprehension the honeymoon there and took our kids there. >> you did >> oh, yeah. and lahaina, i guess longy's is probably gone. the banyan tree, the pioneer, which is right next to the banyan tree. it's just -- you can't even tissue when th --

when that was happening, it was beyond comprehension lahaina town is the cutes, greatest little -- it's a very touristy area, if you're not on the other side of the maui, you're right near lahaina, and i think it's gone. i think it's gone. >> and you know, it's something historic, literally cannot be replaced it will be rebuilt, it will be brand new, which is not what it was or what the point was obviously. they come out with these reports now saying researchers had warned about how it was prone to fire damage, but youe wonder ho many hundreds of thousands of places across the country, i don't know. >> they were old structures. they were charming, but they were kind of rickety looking old structures,a lot of the buildings that were right there on the -- very close to the water. it's one of the great places. >> sad, such a loss of cultural capital. it's really sad. coming up, there's some panic at the gas pump lately,

and the biden administration is on high alert as gas prices hovered near their highest levels of 2023 why the oval office's next move could hurt investors that's just ahead. up next, former u.s. comptroller general joins us to explain after the break. sq"squawk box"ilbeig bk. wl rhc g data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪ opportunity is making the dream of home ownership a reality. ♪ ...and driving the world forward to a greener energy future. [applause] sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. (fan #1) there ya go! that's what i'm talkin' about! and opportunity is someone who can make the connection. (josh allen) is this your plan to watch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is?

myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. (hero fan) this plan is amazing! (josh allen) another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. (fan #1) that was josh allen. (fan #2) mmhm. (vo) for a limited time get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. a $449 value. plus, get a free samsung galaxy z flip5. only on verizon.

former u.s. comptroller general david walker is calling for a fiscal sustainability commission in the wake of the fitch downgrade. in a real clear markets op-ed, david says while the white house and others are up in arms, the move by fitch was justified, and s&p and moody's mayeventually do the same. david walker joins us this morning. he's also a founding member of the federal fiscal sustainability foundation. what was your title at the peterson foundation, too, david? you've been -- >> i was -- i was the original ceo, joe, and thanks for the opportunity to be back with you. >> yeah. this is not new for you. i've kidded you in the past that whatever you're doing, you need to do more of it or do it

harder it's just gotten worse, and this is with you -- with you pulling your hair out, your hair on fire for 20 years, isn't it worse it's ever been >> it is let me give you a few numbers, in fiscal 2000 when i was comptroller general of the united states, since then the total liabilities and unfunded promises for the u.s. have gone up six times to over $125 trillion. the debt subject to the debt limit has gone up six times to over $33 trillion. the debt as a percentage of the economy has more than doubled, and it's scheduled to get much, much worse i'm actually calling for two things, joe. i'm calling for a constitutional amendment that will limit how much debt as percentage of the economy we can take on absent extraordinary conditions, and secondly, a statutory fiscal sustainability commission to engage the american people with the facts, truth, tough choices. make a package of

recommendations, guaranteed up or down vote in congress we need both of those things and more if we want to restore fiscal sanity and sustainability >> is it helpful when -- blame the messenger. i watched the biden administration's response and actually main stream media's response it's almost like we just had a great gdp number we've got, you know, jobs at record low unemployment, almost blaming fitch for not buying into this bidenomics sort of branding that they've had. i mean, this is a problem right now. it's gotten worse. trump didn't help, obviously that's all i ever hear is what aboutism, you know, don't talk about this now because the tax cuts are why we're in this position for whatever reason, things are not great. and we can't just all of a sudden start applauding that things are going great at this point because of something called bidenomics, david. >> i was in the white house last week as part of the defense

business board, which i'm on, and the white house was caught totally by surprise here they had no idea this was coming they obviously feel strongly that it was wrong. i disagree with them i mean, the fact is that things have gotten much worse they're projected to get even worse and nothing meaningful has been done. it's time to recognize that reality. by the way, within the last week or so, we've seen the congressional budget office say that the deficit for this fiscal year, 2023 -- and this is before the supplemental request -- is going to be over double what it was last year. that's not getting better. that's getting worse >> the sad truth is that all the things we'd like to do to try to -- you know, to broaden the safety net and to, you know, to solve income inequality and all the things that the left purports to be, you know, so passionate about, it makes it impossible to do it when everything that you're -- all

the gdp growth is actually going on entitlement and interest rate payments you can't do any of the other stuff. we're handcuffed because we have to do the debt service. >> the truth is the government has grown too big, promised too much subsidized too many, and it's got to restructure itself, and the fastest growing expenses you touched on is interest and what do we get for interest? nothing. and in fact, within the next few years interest is going to pass what we spend on defense it's absolutely outrageous we need to recognize reality that one congress can't bind the next congress. the only thing that can do that is a constitutional amendment, and here's the shocking thing, joe, in 1979 enough states had applied -- had submitted applications for a convention of states to propose a fiscal responsibility amendment and congress failed to act

chairman joe yearington and house budget committee has hcr 24 in addition i'm cautiously optimistic that the house budget resolution will include something on a fiscal sustainability or debt commission it's time to quit playing games and get serious if we want our future to be better than our past. >> david, it's kelly here. if i could ask, one of the sort of problems that i think people have in warning about this is the boy who cried wolf effect. when the crisis comes we can look back and say these guys warned about it for 20 years right now for a lot of people it falls on deaf ears i've heard it and there's never been a crisis, and there's all the same people, jack dorsey, elon, maybe it's the younger generation, just cross the aisle, right if they came out with a come ko up talking about the importance of this, i think it'd be a very different message. how do you change this as

something that comes off as a partisan topic that has true urgency and bipartisan support behind it. >> this is a bipartisan problem. last time that we had a fiscally responsible president was blill clinton. there hasn't been one since then the last time we had a fiscally responsible congress is when newt gingrich was speaker of the house. you need divided government to really make this happen. i think we have to recognize the reality. the american people are a lot smarter than politicians realize. they understand you can't spend more than you make without having a day of reckoning. the commission has to engage the american people to till the ground, to pave the way for a tough vote we also have to learn from history. the roman empire fell for several reasons. fiscal irresponsibility, political instability, decline in moral values, over extended military, and failure to protect its borders. do those sound familiar?

>> yeah. >> you know, you want to get maybe someone else to talk about that >> everything but the vomit cross, that's coming though. >> keep in mind this, joe. every major fiscal and monetary agency, that's the fed, that's cbo, that's treasury, that's gao, every major one has said for years that we're on an unsustainable path, and what have we done about it? nothing meaningful enough is enough. >> david, i see it every day, people tell me what, you know, what a partisan hack i am because i don't buy into modern monetary theory that the dollar is strong enough, it's a reserve currency, we can do whatever we want, and it's always going to be strong. we're always going to be able to print more we're always going to be able to use that and you know, we need to take care of every single desire, wish, and need of every single person and just print the money to do it and they feel virtuous saying it

can't even look at europe and see that there are issues, you know >> and they're wrong and they're wrong. you know, the modern monetary theory has been proven to be junk >> no trickle down has been proven to be jung. it's supposedly growing the pie is what has been supposedly refuted by history that's the number one priority we have to grow the economy. that has to be -- that's why we focus on debt to gdp because even if the debt's going up, if the economy is growing faster than the debt, we're making progress >> socialism at work, david, we just haven't done it right yet we've got to try it one more time i keep hearing that. just haven't done that right j thanks, joe. >> good to have you on from one crisis to another, oil prices are riding a seven-week win streak. higher prices at the pump across america. in some places we've seen a

$0.30, $0.40 move. could it put a damper on the president's energy policy? what are the options to bring gas prices down? we will discuss that next. as we head to break, here's a look at the winners and losers in the s&p ahead of the open bath and body workers up 2%. not a lot of major moviers but e will get a slew of retail earnings this week "squawk box" will be right back.

oil prices are likely to go up again in august according to the iea as oil demand reached record levels in june globally, over 103 million barrels a day a big reason is because saudi arabia has tightened supply. joining us bob mcnally, author of crude volatility, the history and the future of boom bust oil prices good to see you. it looks like we're kind of settling out here in the 80s if we head upwards of 90 wouldn't saudi respond with some production and take advantage of those prices >> hi, kelly, i think we're in as we discussed a couple of weeks ago a bullish move here. we think oil prices, crude heading well into the $90 range, 100, entirely possible on a

dailyd daily print before the year is out. it will be choppy. oil prices are climbing a wall of doubt and skepticism. traders were head faked by the lack of the russian disruption last year. and there are plenty of macroeconomic risks. we're dancing in a macro minefield now with that rate hike and so forth. so skeptical. traders are not buying into it fundamentals are fundamentals. opec plus is going to put a huge deficit into the market in the second half. we're starting to see that, and that should send prices higher i don't think the saudis back off at 90 or 92. i don't think they have a price target in mind i think they want to be sure that the deficits they hope to create are materializing before our eyes before they decide to take their foot off the brake there. >> sure, and i mean, i understand that. let's back up for a second we are running a 2 million barrel a day if not more, deficit. so to fill that gap, everyone's running down their crude stocks.

we had like -- we talked about this last week we had an 8 million barrel draw hear she thinks we'll probably run out of our excess inventory by the end of the year, leaving 2024 more vulnerable to oil price swings which i don't think the president would want what are the choices and options here >> the president doesn't have very good options. they range between inconsequential and then disastrous, really bad and counterproductive. i worked for president bush, i've been in those shoes there's no magic wand. the d.o.e., i don't think d.o.e. wants to do any more they stopped the refilling, but i don't think they'd agree to another draw if the white house wants it, the white house gets it. if we go to $4 gasoline, can't rule out more spr draws. other than that, you know, ease up on venezuela with sanctions a little bit maybe a wink, a nod to iran. let them export a little bit more as part of this hostages for cash deal. you know, you can get some dribs and drab there

there really aren't any good options. the best option would be to get in saudi arabia to ramp up production you know there's this bigger negotiation underway that's been reported between the biden administration and the saudis. that's not going to come to fruition anytime soon. i don't expect it to change saudi policy that's probably the best option the president has right now. >> i'd be curious what you think that larger negotiation hangs on a 2 million barrel a day global deficit, i'm not sure if venezuela or iran could doe much you think we would drawdown the spr instead of trying to refill it >> we should step back we're all projecting a 2 million a barrel a day deficit that remains to be seen. >> didn't we have that in july 103 versus 101. >> no, i don't think we're seeing the 2 million barrel a day deficit in one month yet that 8 million barrel a day draw was in crude stocks in the u.s., not products u.s. total liquids didn't really draw so look, we're starting to see oil on the water, product stocks in asia, but it is way too early

to say that we're digging that 2 million barrel a day hole based on the lag and partial data that we get in the oil market the saudis have to be concerned that we're in 2008 this is risk management for them for all we know we're about to blow up another bank and the economy will collapse and crude could be at $40 by december. that's a real risk so the saudis want to cut against that risk. so way too soon to conclude that the job is done. way too soon. >> so if we -- what designed of annou announcement do you think will be next? recently we saw they didn't want to refill at these prices feel like they're a little bit high what do you think is the next move in that direction >> well, if oil prices keep marching higher as i expect they will, i think at some point early next year, the president will consider another spr draw he will try to convince other iea countries to draw with them as he did in november of 2021

they'll be pushed back to that i think early next year entirely possible we'll have another spr draw the worst things would be export restrictions, kelly. if he feels that he can't draw down the spr anymore because he's already at 40-year lows and the world's still a dangerous place, his next option and it's a terrible one, is to restrict the export of gasoline and diesel from the united states. there our inventories are quite low, and refinery margins are quite fat and product prices are high that will be an awful option he has the authority to do it. i hope he won't. it wouldn't work for very long, maybe you could get a day or two of relief, and then you get refiners would drop runs and we'd end up with even higher gasoline prices down the road. it is an option. they looked to last summer, seriously looked at. they ended up going with the spr. if they feel the spr isn't there for them, they may go to export restrictions that's a very bad day for refiners in the united states, by the way. >> interesting, thanks for looking around the corners for

us, we appreciate it this morning. >> thank you chlk. coming up, it's still happening, still on, the latest on the writer's strange and the weekend box office lucky we had a lot of stuff literally in the can sooner or later it's going to run out. check out the futures right now, we're still up but not as much as we were green across the board we'll be right back. good night! hey corporate types. would you stop calling each other rock stars? you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business. but it still doesn't make you a rock star. so unless you work with an actual rock star. hi, i'm ozwald. hello ozwald. pam, you are a rock- i wasn't going to say it. ♪♪ this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep,

so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) constant contact's advanced automation lets you send the right message at the right time, every time. ( ♪♪ ) constant contact. helping the small stand tall. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports

never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

the ampt met with the writers guild and attempted to make an agreement as more production continued to get delay. joining us is matt belamy. you don't want to mess things up, matt, i know you have some insight into what went on on friday. it's going to resume at some point this week. it didn't seem quite as acrimonious, did it? is there some headway and reason for hope based on what you're hearing for what happened on friday >> i think there is. i don't want to overstep here because the two sides are very far apartstill but there's a key element here we did not hear either side attack the other on friday, which sounds ridiculous but that is an improvement over what we had previously

the last meeting before this one on friday started with the writers attacking the studios for supposedly leaking the agenda and leaking -- and then the studios responded saying it's unfortunate that the write verse writers have to do this. just the fact that we have silence on both sides suggests they are interested in being productive in getting a deal >> we obviously have had a lot of content post-covid that was ready to come out, so consumers really haven't noticed, you know, the spigot didn't just close. how much longer is that going to be the case? do you think all of a sudden we go oh my god, some pressure would be exerted by the viewing public get this done, we're there? >> i think we're about to start

noticing we're going to come back from the labor day holiday when the traditional fall holiday season starts and there's no new shows for the broadcast network. yes, there's been no late night shows all summer and people did notice that. but the fact that you're going to tune into your favorite "law & order" and they're just not going to be there and cbs is doing things like putting yellowstone on cbs that's old "yellowstone. i think the broadcast networks will feel it first hbo has said they're okay for the rest of this year but when you get into 2024, it's very dicey. we've seen some of these services start to phase out the content. they would have premiered

something in september, october. that's getting delayed so they have a cushion i think the consumer will start to notice this stuff >> and when will the management side of things -- when you hear things like, yeah, we're saving a lot of money, not spending anything on content, this is okay for us, when does that change to, you know, really angst and anxiety about not being able to do what they're supposed to be doing as a company? i mean, you've seen some of comments, yeah, we're saving money, we're fine with this. >> they are telling investors that on earnings calls and keep in mind this is precash flow that they are saving for the most part. but they have anxiety over this. the chief negotiator did not want to go back and talk and was told to do so by the studio bosses who felt some urgency

here about getting back in a room and making a deal so there are lots of things. the fact that the actors have refused to promote movies already finished is a big deal we've seen movies that were supposed to come out september, october, those have opinion pushed to 2024 we've seen movies that were supposed to come out next summer and that your not finished that's where the studios and the movie side are really hurting and that's where the pressure point is so it not like these companies are excited. they know that down the line and netflix even said so, it's going to be choppy coming in the next quarter and that's what they're looking for. >> so what does the eventual new world actually look like it's not streaming of the answer to everything and we're going to need content as far as the eye

can see and people are going to get asked for as much money -- there's going to be so much competition for the great content producers. wow, this business is really hard you're lucky you're making what you used to make because it's digital nickles instead of an log dollars? >> wrel, you you just laid out the two sides there. i think what the union s are saying is, yeah, it's tough out there. in the industry they've come to some kind of new model where they don't replace the cage bundle but they figure out a new order that allows these networks and they can play the increased residuals and and you look at

these companies with doom saun prove i don't know itself to be a very profitable business >> so what are you. >> did you see barbie? >> i saw them both >> did you see "sound of freedom" i eventually saw that. i had time >> i did not see it yet but people who do see it tend to love it, though. >> i i hope it's not true. >> did you pay it forward? because if it's as big a problem ofs. >> anyway, matt, thank you appreciate it. >> coming up, more on what's moving markets this morning as the s&p tries to hang on to a market gain. and fed president on goldman

and fed president on goldman sachs' dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. t callthat's when dr. petsworh therned to his american expres n an business card, influx changed everything. the only problem is for appointments he needed more space. built for dr. petsworth business. built for your business. amex business.

good morning goldman sachs out with a new call it expects the feds to begin

cutting interest rates in the second quarter of next year. economy is pretty strong we're going to ask former dallas fed president robert kaplan about that call. >> the sec kicking the can on etf. and elon musk said martin is chicken. the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square.

i joe kernen along with kelly evans. you're doing everything. five hours of tv, live tv. >> yes >> wow you must make a lot of money >> i get a bonus >> actually, sadly you don't becky and andrew of course off today. but we love it >> i know. my dad always says you get paid to do what you love. >> all those kids at home. >> i'll take a few extra shifts. >> i figure two would be over 5. >> 4, 9, look a at that. >> with the 10-year, that definitely moved >> i think the long end is the new short end. in terms of significance like the short end is what it is until these cuts come along for

whatever but the long end, people we just want to know is it going to swing around a lot more from here or not. and also among today's top stories, shares of u.s. steel are sharply higher as the company yesterday said it's reviewing strategic alternatives after receiving multiple unsolicited bids for parts or all of its business. we're looking to a premarket pop to almost 29 it's still about a $5 billion company. their rival yesterday said they previously proposed to buy u.s. steel. it would have valued the company at $7 b.

>> u.s. grid is like an american brand, right the stock has gone nowhere for a long time, basically since 2008 these stocks have gone nowhere so how much more consolidation needs to happen? there are some interesting things to dig into there but anyway -- >> and you're appealing that management was actually watching at the top of the show and the word we were looking -- mini mill. it not like minute o, you think of despite that it came nimble and small. and then the person in the movie, and drou garfield ratted out jesse -- >> in the social network and it's us en.

>> and transitioning from commander in chiefland cliffs, again, this is the best publicity thread we've got yesterday zuckerberg said this is serious and it's time to move on zuckerberg said he's going to focus on competing with people who at that. >> >> also, jokingly he sent as it was ([ inaudible ].

>> i neff considered zuckerberg and does he have a back yard with a little swing set or -- >> he probably showed it >> i think he's probably got a pretty nice back yard. >> this is how italy's getting rfd. it went if and they're messing around >> and they appear to be friendly you never sure if these people's paths neff cross and they sit at home stewing about how much they hate each other. >> it's funny, they're talking about it that it could really happen >> and they doane be that as it

may, that might be the end road for this one. >> shares of stock shares jumped three weeks ago. the new plan includes a the preferred shares are sharp lip higher, ate, and i've seen cutle bus about that in that it's near term the stob gets effected but it does get out of. >> and now we're going back into another -- >> blackout period as well >> essentially a drought of new

releases because if you have movies and releases, they will come >> no, that's what we -- >> we need theaters. >> all of the movies that you just mentioned had very good turnout and just as that's happening and clicking again, 2024 and 2025 it could be a slog in terms of new stuff. >> the airline industry needed to be -- it's so important, i can see why we needed it socialize, some we need move owe tleeters you make an inventment there. >> you know that that go into amc theaters and buy popcorn and don't see movies i've thought about doing it.

i can. i mike satoh. >> you can't make it at home lock that, can you premix med it and it's going to be available outside of theaters. not sure it's going to be good enough look at the s&p 500. look at the text bach on how the market begins it here's the s&p with it's 50-day moving average. in a kpch strong january february pullback. the regional banks in march made it teep are than strength,000 the spring and getting a little

overexcited into null ap remember this stack there. that's a year ago this in that was when jackson hole fed conference -- jay powell had stern markets saying there would be no pivot. soing in in i think one of the tells for the energy sector this year is it didn't have that deep of a pulp and the catskills look pretty good there has been some rotation in this market as the largest tech stock have corrected pretty

hard kelly, i know, let's take a look at the 30-year had its aggressive moved recent hi higher expectations get percolated but it's still at the right end of the main. august is a time of johnsons >> 5.3 on the one-year look, there's real legal nrpg you're getting above the inflation rate >> we had rip reporting storing

markets for years and years. 8 before fwrm 420, in fact we've neatly seen this movie behind, haven't sfwheem (it really was a pretty text bik fine, if soft landing. so we probably have to cover some of that come frm. >> mike, thank you we freech for froy and a busy bakhmut of reit will.

we have a lot on tap joining us to talk about it, chief publicing rk publishing. i wasn't sure if it was the government or something. up cover it all. >> stocks versus bonds >> what do you think on the relative value of stocks versus bond right now is it. >> i think they both are offering good opportunities. it's a very benign soft landing scenario pt risk return is not looks as good as it did three, four months ago >> and we were talking to banister earlier this morning. he's saying the same thing, the up side is a little more cap from here. >> yeah. yo you're going to continue to have

decent returns i concentration is what's developing in your portfolio >> if you name the names, magnificent 7 and all that now what about bonds who was it just a moment ago right, we were talking about goes and oil prices and bob mcnally said the saudis are continuing to keep the supply in check. if there is even the possibility of that, why shouldn't in their portfolio have a bond, a 30 year, 10 year, whatever it it is, again p yeeding against the possibility we could see a slowdown in the economy. >> kelly, i love the fact that you love bonds and i can't, you know, agree with you more that thesetypes of yields are really interesting. i think the question is which part of the curve do you want to be in? you can make a strong argument, joe, you were making it before that we could be at 8%

a lot of things would have to happen between here and there. >> i don't say we're going to. at least at 8% i'll double my money in nine years. >> rule of 72. >> have you heard of nvidia or apple or -- >> nvidia is down like 80 bucks. >> and netflix find a business you like and invest for the long term for money that you need to have, go ahead then, can you do that >> it's also for money that you want to be able to invest when there is a dip >> exactly >> that's not the 30 year. >> but a one year. >> a 30 year worked pretty well during the pandemic. it was the one thing that worked for you in your portfolio. >> i could have bought 13.5%

triple tax free triple a bond. >> wow no one bought it they wanted to buy floating rates. >> they all matured. now what are you doing >> exactly i don't know how about a convert. how about some converts. if you can convert -- >> let me flip it around you're the true expert if you think that bonds are so exciting here, what are we missing? it can't be that obvious maybe the 10-year is going to 6% i don't know >> look, it isn't that obvious because the answer is that we have seen a lot of false when it comes to inflation and it creates the opportunity to buy bonds that we haven't seen in well over a decade earning around 2% yield rate, locking it in, that hasn't been and. and given the underlying growth

rates to the u.s. economy, it's not clear to me that, like, ub need to earn more than that. >> if we're going 130% debt to gdp and, you know, we're going to have trouble pay. you think rates are going down from here in. >> if we literally can't see the debt, we have to stopcying. >> they are depressed about the future they're very dee dee negative? >> is there anything else to leave it on a more optimistic note you do like equities here in some ways across a.i., across

innovative business models >> but you can't own anything. it's all too expensive >> you can go outside the u.s. andwhere companies are trying to diversify their supply chains. and the only thing can you go it to china orrin. all right. go-go stock market and technology and apple and $4 trillion market cap. we're going to talk to president biden's former chips coordinator next he helped crt afthe chips act, which was signed into law a year ago. we'll be right back. introducing purple's new mattresses - our unique gel flex grid draws away heat,

helping you fall asleep faster. it relieves pressure for less "ow," and more "ahhh." and instantly adapts as you move, without ever disturbing your partner. amazing. sleep better. live purple. visit purple.com or a mattress store near you.

nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing.

yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. our next guest played a key role in inplemtatentation there are two kinds of individuals in the world those that think a public/private partnership makes a lot of sense and in a world

that we live in today that we need to bring things back here that an industrial policy makes sense. and then senator gregg others who say the government shouldn't be picking the most favored industry or deciding who the winners or losers are. >> thank you for having me and we do grapple with that every day. you want to make sure i would say thor if one youcan bring a lot of people around to the eyity that and i talked about the chipz program, it's going to everything with an on and off switch we can't have it just made in one part of the world. what we've seen is the chip industry has been concentrated in just jun so the industrial power of the arguments asoud and

then and now so anybody -- we shouldn't be doing everything in the united states sometimes capital isn't treated best when there are reasons to go somewhere else to have it done you would say that the overriding concern of national security, that that is more important, so we don't need to worry about whether it cost as little bit more or -- i don't know, there's a lot of reasons to think had why it went oaf there in the first place, why it wasn't made here, right? >> yeah. i think even under the chips act, we're not going to do everything in the united states in is a dwlobl supply chain that developed over the last generation you knee it and tas uk

envelopes. >> i think you'll continue to see a global supply chain but will you see a higher portion of leading edge chips, the power, artificial intelligence, it comes back to the united states. so not everything in the united states but the key components of a, i'm thinking about i know we need a renewable tran uks about and if our energy cost or four times more than natural gas, for example, could the government screw that up and subsidize too much if.

you could see how we could go amiss or what we could do nn and really hurt our effort >> woo have to bes did frb and the computer trip made it back from business and supply chain, which we know is support for government government it twrm with a limited amount of taxpayer funds i fwrae with you that if you start this and, number two, lum will. nm and that's dwr i think we start it the n and make them

right about them >> because it's fuqua, right it's not just right -- it's not ul business and the government have a pro-rated relation shupe. from let's in the goo. in great school, great part of the the country. it's in our state, best case to do business. north carolina again, my friend. >> i'm proud to be from new york it is a great place it do business >> nk who are757no >> the dollar index overall around 103

we'll show you the charts next and you can get the best of "sqwauk box" i bile for business. mlb partners with t-mobile to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance mlbhow the game is played. to aaa relies on t-mobile's network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. and we're helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. notime to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business. the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner

that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

will come back we mentioned a couple of key moves. we're watching the yen in particular for the first time since november it's back above the level right now.

the last time the japanese government and b.o.j. stepped in to buy it at $145. it's already up 10%. and the russian ruble is at a 17-month low overnight it was at 50 just a couple of months ago, the bank of russia blaming the country's shrinking balance of and 40% against the dollar this year coming up, gold maub sacks cutting with the wall parting in stay with us on "squawk box. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating )

( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) ( sfx: stock exchange bell ringing ) he snores like an angry rhino. you've never heard an angry rhino. ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people celebrating ) baby i hear one every night... every night. okay. i'll work on that. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, 36 month financing on select smart beds. shop now only at sleep number. my dad was a hard worker. he used to do side jobs installing windows, charging something like a hundred bucks a window when other guys were charging four to five-hundred bucks. he just didn't wanna do that. he was proud of the price he was charging.

♪♪ my dad instilled in me, always put the people before the money. be proud of offering a good product at a fair price. i think he'd be extremely proud of me, yeah. ♪♪

welcome back to "squawk box. well, futures are down now all this talk about bonds and stocks aren't the place to be. if you can get 4%, why wouldn't you do that? >> this is barry's fault he came on at 6:15 >> you don't think it's you? >> it's certainly i wonder if that helps because it has to

keep competing -- >> we're talking about a grabbed total of like 50 points but we are in the red now, which we were in the green to of tom -- at the top >> good morning. >> it's good to be with you, kelly. >> the cutting, we haven't talked a will the about it but it's already priced into the market freely. he said we might have it frn especially as soon as. worried about which direction they're going to go and that sort of this evening >> tlm snchl and good are very

weak china being so weak makes goods deinplace the or hand you've got substantial amounts of project and you also have world oil prices inching up. is we've got a number of krs currents to get this we feel it appropriate the cut rates isn't unreasonable that's as good as expectation as any right. caller: nm that we're executing

right now, i would not be tarably. prchl public/private part are and if i were at the set, i'd be on my toes to see how these cross frpg and i'd still be hopeful that we pin to nk f is it all going to be goldie locks and work out just fine >> well, so this is where i

think the af the attention is now shifting to the back end of the curve, the 5-year, 10-year, 30-year. there's a price about this amount of debt at gdt flmt and i think the story may be over the next six monies, the ban fnlt and that this will mac the bank stwrchlt there as a stat now i'm recession fof five and fechbl

and the fmt can you mop. in will end up being deflapgs will the infrastructure balanced actual will you in if when i was called thein flags relax act a lot of people laughed about that do you think thun temperature. from. >> if they improve productivity, then, yes. in the near term, my own view is they're spiking the demand for good services and labor. i think one of the things i'm very aware of in the energy

transs and china producing mr lek it can forecast and we've got a bit of deglobalization here in chips nm in this energy transmugs is going to tack. i know nobody want to say that about it's true. if woo doesn't din

from -- so that's something i'd like to see more of an energy transition >> you didn't say it would be inflationary, you just put more activity into temperature. >> so it's not a slam dunk product will improve and it will be deflationary, you know -- >> i'm -- i've been involved in capital investments i thought would have one effect and the world changed. and i'm hopeful and i know behind the investments they're hoping for this evening and some other economists made speeches recently that if we limit globalization of the energy transition, it will make it more expensive and i'm very aware of

thisle ranz we talked about the positive requirements. you did mention kuld can that involves over a big government expenditure over long run. i mean, what other option is there? >> so if oo ooor if deal with they have large why trump and there could be a number of frams and we better entertainment and ng capitol. s that when he's focusing on

britts frfrmgt it's that coming nationwide again be more competition would bring news that's modle (if y it the most important absence we h popping m and much more with form are south korea many snouchlt and doesn't mus ryan

skull chfol tonight on "last call" at 7 p.m. eastern. we'll be bakhmut that's double the fskt (and direction al lights n and swivel di the f and each light has nuchlt and a perfect path thereto way lighting and am fwlans with

fwhchlt and they're congratulate

f lighting and . the sec has postponed its decision on the arc bitcoin making another setback in the prolonged effort joining us is former chair of the sec and sec contributor. i'm trying to remember the last politicians we had on and they had all kind of plans to pass all kind of stuff and there was one from one party, one from the other party. they were together, they were writing stuff. anything going on? anything happen? this isn't going to happen again. it's just more of the same >> well, look, the sec post pond the decision, but they are seeking public comment and the landscape for bit koup and retail access to bitcoin has

definitely changed let just look at where we are today. i when i was sec chair was very skeptical of the bitcoin trading markets. whether you believe bitcoin is going to go to whatever or dry up and go away, i think that's no longer the question you have a guest talking about it being regulated like a commodity, a large retail participation around the globe and people want access to it now we have very credible financial institutions who have fiduciary duties to their customers saying we want to deliver this product and we can do so consistent with those obligation trading, which we all know is an let's get public comment and then let's move on >> so is it a stretch to say, okay, there are securities like

equities and then there are places like -- take a pick of these fly by night operation that's akin to ftx >> the crypto marks were rife with fraud >> but not crypto itself. >> crypto is a technology. >> some could argue that crypto t itself is a ponzi scheme >> we've talked about stable coin before. there is little doubt that stable coin is a very efficient way to transfer dollars around the globe. can it be done with our macro potential and, yes, it can be we're talking about a digital

dollar is the technology a good technology for some of these uses pretty clearly yes >> so what's the problem then or you don't think it's going to be a problem? you think gary gentzler agrees with what you you said >> if that's inefficient and anything like this where you pad it, it's really bad behavior, and you do want to moe what percentage of this program actually touches ond politics? a fair amount. what is the political response to various things going to be? when you have sam bankman-fried who is deeply intertwined in politics, people will want to take a pause >> when we decided to sing a

song together, the one -- she's got plenty of time she's young. should see be thinking about buying 4% bond or would you recommend she buy some bitcoin what would you tell kelly evans to do at this point. >> what would i tell keline evans? diversify. diversify. >> i'm kidding when i said a two-year note. i'm sort of kidding, as you know >> let's be clear. pit come -- i guess it -- i -- can i use your line for a second i like how you said bitcoin is a technology let's separate that from the asset class.

est and i like what you say about at this point and i mean, how do you feel about coin base's full approach when they're basically like you want to slap swinging there's so many extraordinary things happening in this space >> let's go with where it started, and has the s.e.c. made a muddle we had people take this technology and try to evade our time-tested securities laws, and our time-tested securities laws are incredibly rigorous, burdensome to make a public offering in the united states, you have to go through many hurdles, much disclosure, audited financial statements they wanted to evade all of that the s.e.c. did a good job putting a stop to that and now, the question is, there are things out there that are not securities bitcoin is one of them others, we talk about tickets.

we talk about things that can trade in a market. we have to catch up on how we treat those in terms of secondary -- >> that's why the ripple was so interesting. >> yeah. >> what's -- you know, what's going to be a commodity? what's going to be a security? do you still feel like we have the right tools in our, you know, approaching this the right way? >> raising capital for a future product is a security. it's that simple you come to me and you say, hey, jay, give me money, i'm going go off and build a network or a production and do these things and you're going to get a return as a result. that's pretty clearly a security but something that is for use today, time on a server, going to a play, bitcoin now that it's completely decentralized, that is not a security. the lines -- i think the lines are actually pretty clear. >> so, coinbase is going to get in trouble not because they had bitcoin but because all the other stuff?

>> one thing that is -- i know this is -- it's very tedious >> technical, i know >> but there's a big difference when people talk about crypto between raising capital, you coming to me and saying, give me money, and providing trading services we treat the secondary trading of securities, commodities, and other things differently from a regulatory perspective than we do the initial distribution. the rigorous protections around initial distribution are what we focus on, but trading has a different set of rules >> right >> so. >> that they violated or didn't violate? i don't mean to press you on you. it's just confusing. >> it is but think about those two different ways the distribution and raising of capital from retail people, we regulate that very seriously trading, less so there are lots of things to trade that don't trade on exchange >> sneakers. well, i guess they do on exchange >> there are blue chip companies that are jonesing to get into all these things >> right

and they have -- they to have responsibility they do. fiduciary duties to their customers. and the best argument right now is we're holding retail outside of that regulated network to participate in bitcoin >> okay. jay clayton, thanks. >> appreciate it still ahead, what investors should be watching this week as we get ready for today's opening bell futures had turned negative. dow implied openow dn. s&p down five points "squawk box" will be right lack.

school is back and dick's sporting goods has everything you need to gear up so you can show up. with the hottest brands, like nike, jordan, on, carhartt, and hoka. and, with even more options at dicks.com, it's never been easier to sport your style.

with just over half an hour to the opening bell, futures have turned negative let's talk about why with brenda good morning i'm a little wary of the early gains for a couple of reasons. we talk about longer end bond yields, some of the selling pressure in china. what do you think is going on here >> well, i think we're entering, really, the summer doldrums a little bit i think this is a time when there's not a lot of incremental news, although there are some economic data points coming out, get a little bit of a read on the consumer, retail sales this week, and industrial production, but we have to remember the consumer is spending a lot on services, and a lot of that spending isn't really captured in that retail sales number. >> i was just going to say, i have, like, a, you know, frustration in advance because i'm not sure how much we're going to learn this represents a particular

part of the economy, maybe you could argue walmart's a much more important barometer, but it feels like the real discretionary spend, and maybe if they could give us regularity on taylor swift tickets and airfare -- how important are the reports this week? >> relative to last week, i don't think they're as important but i think we're in a period where volume is likely to be light. people are out on vacation, spending money on services, so i think we could see some volatility i also think we just haven't seen, even those q2 numbers came in better than expected for the most part, we haven't seen numbers move higher for this year or next and i think that's what's needed to justify another significant move higher in the market >> great point for everyone who's -- is the market built on fundamentals or multiple expansion it's been a lot of multiple expansion. there is a deal in the market, and you know, i know -- i feel like i can bring up cleveland cliff because the amount you

guys have talked it on has "halftime," but what is the deal -- are you watching this with any larger interest >> we are not involved in cleveland cliffs and have really limited exposure to individual stocks with heavy commodity exposure but nevertheless, i think another question is, is m&a activity really going to pick up we haven't seen a lot of that this year, but i think we could start to see that. we are in an environment where from a regulatory standpoint, it hasn't been very friendly, but i do think we could start to see some m&a activity pick up as the year goes on >> yeah. obviously, everyone's looking forward to that, maybe a little ipo activity what about the end 145 to the dollar. not that you're trading yen crosses or anything, but is that the kind of global cross that worries you? >> i think we have a lot going

on globally, and the bank of japan moving away from having as much influence as they had on the yield curve there is a pretty significant move, one that we haven't seen in a very long time, so i think it's a good thing, ultimately, for japan. but to the extent that there were a lot of trades on relative to various -- the currency there, i think that could cause some more volatility in the currency market. but overall, we think with the dollar, and that's another really important point when you're talking about corporate earnings in the united states, the dollar does weaken, that could certainly be a good thing for corporate earnings that has been a huge drag for a lot of multinational companies, and to the extent that the global economy hangs in there this year and we do see the dollar weaken, the fed pauses, i think that could be a good scenario for the corporate earnings story >> still at 103 on that dollar overall. brenda, thank you. we appreciate it this morning. oh, it's sad

sad. when will i see you again? >> thursday. >> oh. that's not too bad final check on the markets we are now in the red. we had been positive we're down just a little bit >> i can't find any -- i mean tom lee even was talking about choppy markets >> what song -- you must know a beatles song you ever listen on sirius xm, what's your channel? >> i listen to podcasts. really >> make sure you join us tomorrow and thursday. we're going to sing something. "yesterday"? join us tomorrow "squawk on the street," not yesterday, it's next ♪ good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at post nine of the new york stock exchange futures did lose some ground here as we set up for an important week july quarter earnings, retail sales, fed minutes, bond yields perked up a bit as b of a upgrades the u.s. consumer today. our