>> the english premier league began this weekend the shortest off-season of any league big interview coming up on "last call." brian talks to florida governor and presidential hopeful, ron desantis thanks for watching "power lunch. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thanks welcome to "closing bell." i'm scott wapner at the new york stock exchange this make-or-break begins with nvidia's bounceback. is it a sign that the big tech sell-off is over that question, as the sector gets a much-needed boost today here's your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. the dow has been fighting it out all day long stocks have been green for much of the day the s&p trying to afford the fourth down day of the last five the ten-year hitting the highest level of the year today.

4.2% it has pulled back off that, a little bit, as you see there the nasdaq down for two-straight weeks. this takes us to the talk of the tape whether it has room to go. chip investors stepping up and buying today, after the call on nv nvidia kristina is following that today. it's been a nice bounce. >> 6%, nice bounce the narrative is buy now that's what morgan stanley and bank of america is saying about nvidia shares. they're calling that an entry point for many, especially with earnings on next week. nvidia is only serving half of the demand in the a.i. market. that's enough to rodrive revenu. they think q2 of $11 billion, which is 50% higher than what

analysts is anticipating, is conservative nvidia should blow past its number that call is why you're seeing the stock up 6%. not everything is perfect. that could cast off near-term upside secondly, ali baba, and others are trying to rush the chip over fears that the biden administration will impose more export restrictions. overall, you need to get through this, quote, wall of worry in q2, with bank of america, saying q4 is historically stronger for chip sector. they see more upside >> the call today, too, they mentioned the visibility for a while that nvidia has into the future the stocks pulled back 8.5% in the last couple weeks. and the p/e has come in from the high, too. that's notable

62 1/2-times in may. and now, 52 1/2 times. it's too expensive p/e is too rich. it continues to come in. >> to that level, if you're referring to that in the notes, that's the five-year average if i remember correctly it's coming to the normal level for nvidia talking about valuations in the nearside and the upterm, they are the dominant player. we can't deny there's a dominant player the second-closest is amd. that's something to consider when you're thinking about, should i sell this name or get in is there upside? >> afraid to sell, too, over

last quarter >> the $7 billion that blew it out of the park? >> exactly you want to sell ahead of the possibility of something like that happening again i don't know the $11 billion believes that it will surpass that level. there's a lot of upside. and that's a very bullish call for revenues going forward and the fact they're seeing $15 billion because of the short supply these are all strengths. i think we need to consider the fact that the upside, the limited upside, because of the supply strengths is a concern. how is this going to continue the massive momentum over the next year or two >> nice gain today we'll watch it up for the rest of the session

>> let's bring in jordan jackson and alecia semis down 7 1/2%. cloud down 9 nasdaq down 4.5% they done? >> it's not done yet the last time we were on together, watching the ten-year sitting over 4% is going to cause problems in the duration names. i think you have consolidation this is not a teetering market this is a place you can add. we don't like to time the market it never works there's more upside as we come into seasonally weak august and september. and tech, it led the markets the first half of the year, if we're going to move higher by the end of the year, tech has to be participating in that. >> there's a note on that today.

we'll get back to the conversation in a minute we're getting new news on u.s. steel. which has been making some mna news today pippa stevens with the update for us what do we know now? >> it's offered an all-cash offer for u.s. steel shares. it would be $35 per share all-cash the company rejected the cleveland cliff offer. over the weekend, u.s. steel said when rejecting that offer from cleveland cliff, it had received multiple unsolicited proposals. esmark, announcing all cash for u.s. steel >> that story is getting more interesting. cleveland clips. he thinks it's going to get done with his company back to you on the tech

sell-off the buyers coming in nvidia and other chip names most of the cap is up, as well do you think the sell-off is done we had a spring of quarters of negative year over year revenue growth that starts to turn the corner potentially as soon as the fourth quarter of this year. if you look at the backlog, there might be brighter days ahead. let's take into account, that you have the chips act money $39 billion. bipartisan legislation $39 billion that's going to be for grants and loans, alongside a 25% tax incentive for the new bu build here in the u.s. and that's going to flow through, providing much support for this sector.

you pick this picture. semiconductors the chips are going to be important, in the transition to the next stage of a.i. i'm cautiously optimistic on the sector valuation remains the headwind >> i wanted to be the point you made, whether the market needs technology the tech stocks to perform it. to what degree there was a note on that most would, given the size of the market itself. those names have to work to get much higher.

the wti is up 22%, driving energy names higher. you see broader participation in the rest of the market if not, going back to the first half of 2023 trade to the extent that you broaden out, it is healthier and i would rather see the s&p be the range of the short-term and have the rest of the market participate, so we can move higher seasonally strong in the end of the year. and the extent we think about chips and the kiss act, we're telling our clinents to build dramatically to take advantage of the reshoring and the i.r.a so much money is coming at certain industries and parts of the economy, helping to keep the tcp up >> the other measure that's been made about rates, whether you

think rates are going to continue to go up, whether they pop. it leads to jackson hole next week the market may be moving after today, looking at goldman sachs, with possible rate cuts in 2024. how do we look at the rate picture over the next few months >> sure. i think long rates have topped out here there's a couple of reasons. i don't think the fed will have enough evidence to hike the fed in september you have prints on xcpi. month over month that's up 2% the labor market continues to be a robust market. but the fed has done enough. the repricing you see is the market pushing outrate cuts, not necessarily going forward rate hikes. you can look at the one-year sofa rate.

that's up more than the terminal rate this year that's just if the fed is going to stay higher for longer. the cpi print that we got last week, was an upside to prize that was the last ledge, in terms of whether rates are headed we're sort of topped out, and my expectations are for rates to reverse course the fed making the round about next year. >> we know that the fed chair is going to say the place is too high. we're going to be down a dependent. it's not going to get you idea that cuts are coming anytime soon what do you expect >> we expect that the fed is done here. you think about the federlines coming out of labor in the last few weeks. >> wages up. >> and by a lot.

you're talking about contracts, 40% increases. that goes into core. i would say that rent looks like they're rolling over and the real economy, not oer, which is calculating cpi, is lower. we have to watch are energy crisis it's going to seep into core and cpi, as well if oil stays higher, we stop the disinflation that's something we have to watch. if the fed stays tight, that's enough to score up the economy here >> the rates picture in terms of where your money is going to work best is still competitive enough in fixed income, that's

there's too many on rates of the equity market. you look at valuation. you strip out the top names in the index, that's looking a little more attractive i'm looking at a ten-year yield of 4.2%, that looks attractive to me. remember, returns and fixed income are not ase met smet sym. you have enough along the way to offset that. it's not asymmetric returns. and risks are skewed for higher bond prices, lower bond yields and the trade-off for valuations on the equity market i'm favoring six income over stocks at this stage

>> how are you viewing that same question >> we're encouraging clients to get out of cash to move towards intermediate, because the yields are higher there's real reinvestment risk on the short side. this is like a good opportunity to be doing that we're mildly overweight to equities here. neutral on fixed income. more on the fundamental outlook. the volatility here is just that we see it as seasonal. it will settle in by the end of september as it normally does. we can go on from there. >> what has to happen for you to say i want to get more skewed towards equities what do you need to see? >> i need to see yields. i need to see yields going lower than 4%. that's one thing i'm staring at that i think can cap the market here this is on the multiple side earnings are very slightly starting to kick higher for this

year i want to see yields for 4%. more disinflation. the move in our ten-year started with the move out of japan i need to see the 4%, and going fully overweight >> in terms of earnings, do you think -- alecia mentioned the fact that expectations just kicked higher. do you think that's realistic? do you think we're too opt optimistics on how the earnings picture on how the recovery is going to have a "v" shape next year >> it hinges on and selling risk assets are calling for the soft landsing for economic perspective, maybe that's not materially different. y you're calling it sub trend

growth soft recession down 1% from a gdp perspective not a lot. but earnings are hypercyclical they're going to move to a greater degree than the broader economy. if you're in the soft recession camp or a harder landing camp, earnings are way too high. the index is 245 11% and 12% earnings for last year that's going to be negative on the back of that call. we're optimistic but markets could stay rationale longer than you and i can stay solvent. we have the chips on the table be selective and active on how you do so. >> your picks are interesting to me, by cyclicals

>> yeah. you have to have sort of -- it's a little hedge on the staples side we've been saying buy cyclicals because the picture has not been as negative as when we first came into the year we had a conversation about semis a couple months ago. we thought it was a great time because they had the recession they had the downturn. they have had disappointing earnings and coming out of it. to the extent that we seem to have a rolling downturn, the cyclicals are coming out of it the manufacturing, new orders index. it's below expansion the rate of change is positive if that's the earnings, that's correlated with that >> we're going to leave it there. i appreciate the time very much. thank you, jordan, alecia.

let's get to the twitter question when will the fed cut rates first? end of '23 first quarter of '24 or as gold nanman sachs says, t second quarter go to x, formerly known as twitter. we're just getting started right here american century investment ceo jonathan thomas is raising the red flag on key indicators that can impact your money. we're live at the stock exchange and you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

back on closing bell stocks trying to rebound today the s&p 500 and nasdaq higher after back-to-back weekly losses our next guest says the market is not out of the woods yet. let's bring in jonathan thomas he's president and ceo of american century investments it's not lake tahoe. this will do new york stock exchange. we'll have you here. we're not out of the woods yet explain. >> yeah. our advice to our clients has been to be patient but be particular. everybody feels like we had a run-up in the market and everything is okay we're not out of the woods you have a deeply inverted yield curve. the most negative it's been since 1980 everybody knows the commercial real estate bubble heading our way, as well

everybody looking at a bubble at the s&p. the bubble was up 60% before 2000 and up 30% before '08. it doesn't necessarily lead to success. >> you bring up '87. seasonally, what is not a good period for stocks. are you looking for a big pullback what magnitude are you looking at stocks correcting >> i don't think anybody -- if you look at the common wall street prognosticators, it's split 50/50. and people that were calling for a harsh reaction, has walked that back. that's aligned to where we are, too. we're talking about a slight pullback, nothing catastrophic, like 80,000 in 2000. >> in terms of fixed income and

inequity, where do you skew on that just given the rally we have and with rates again, how do you assess that? >> we're long-term investors we're not traders, per se. the advice we give people, right now, cash is attractive. i've wondered really since 2010, what are we going to do when cash is yielding 5% or more, will people go back into the markets, given the volatility they just experienced. gathering the 5%.pared to react. the s&p is up 17%. it's supernarrow >> the point you're making is there's formidable competition for stocks if you're getting 5% or

whatever and fixed income, where the risk/reward may be better than equity can you comment, i don't think enough people know about the commitment your firm makes to health and well-being. the amount of your profits that go back to society >> i call it the universe of one. we're the only company that does this our founder did something that nobody does. he gave away the entirety of his fortune. it gave away 40% of the medical research holds that. we give up profits to medical research to put that in perperspective, . billion, that we have sent to

medical research it inspires our employees and inspires our clients, as well, to continue to diversify the one itself, in that event, has raised some $4 million for local charities, too >> it has. the whole thing was created by john norse 35 years ago. rekazed $7 million for local and national charities they are very inspired by this, as well. it keeps him coming back had such an impressive field of athletes out there >> we were excited we brought the news the day about the partnership between nbc sports and you guys.

they're going to do this for a long time. we've been the sponsor for 25 and put another six years to it. start traveling now. that good of an event. let's get back to the markets before i let you go. what gets you more optimistic. is the fed done? do you think they're done? how do you view that now >> i think the fed will start slowing up i'll use a football term we flooded the zone with economic issues. we have the federal government throwing gas on the fire the federal reserve trying to hose it down we had russia attacking ukraine.

and we had the supply and balances from covid. all of that, the m2, the money supply correcting. supply and balance is coming back in line that is going to result in a mild recession or soft landing so, i'm pretty optimistic about the future i do still think a pullback is a real risk. >> you think the fed cuts rates anytime soon >> i don't think they cut. i like the new words they've created. they used to be pivot. then, they produced the word pause. it's all "ps." we're likely to see a pause. if they continue to maintain that they're going to be data-driven, i think the data will see support i think a pivot is unlikely, even though, as you mentioned earlier, the yield curve is inverted

thanks for being here. >> thank you that's jonathan thomas, american century investments he's the president and ceo up next, the catch-up playbook t. row price's sebastian page. and what tesla is doin dg,riving it lower that's ahead on "closing bell.

you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

the first time you connected your godaddy website and your store was also the first time you realized... well, we can do anything. cheesecake cookies? the chookie! manage all your sales from one place with a partner that always puts you first. (we did it) start today at godaddy.com

stocks are a mixed picture this hour of trading my next guest believes the bear market is compelling he is finding opportunity for n a few areas. let's bring up sebastian page of t.rowe price >> you just talked about the inverted yield curve that's a red flashing recession signal

if you look at other signals, all of the macro signals are flashing for a recession the equity is compressioned. we no the regional small banks are fragile. growth is coming down. we have bad data out of china and on and on. the reason i'm reluctant, scott. the lot of the signals represent normal normalization from very, very high growth. 10% nominal growth in 2021 and 9% in 2022 a lot of the signals have been misleading we've had the most anticipated recession became the most delayed in history you have to approach the data with nuances there's opportunities under the hood even when it's likely under way. stocks

there's things you can do under the hood >> here's the issue. you call yourself a bear i get it you hear the same thing from the bears, right they go down the list of the reasons why you should still be negative in the market the one signal was to use the word that you didn't mention the market goes up we had a couple weeks pullback of modest proportions. but the most important signal is that the markets going the other way than the bears thought it would. >> yes, scott. i like to say the signal to happiness is low expectations. we had better outcomes than expected what do you do if you miss the rally? most think of two options. i chase that momentum. and we're valuation focused. and for us, price is going up.

all else being equal is a positive >> if you didn't like it then, i don't expect you to like it now. >> at what point do i like it, i look at pullback a spike in the vix a little panic in the market would be a better entry point. you chase the momentum the second option, you wait for the dip, right this is the third option all your guests are talking about this today and over the last several weeks there's parts of the market as an asset allocator that hasn't participated think about quality small caps

start with u.s. large cap tech, right? 30 price runnings ratio. 13 price earnings ratio. compare that to the energy sector in equities and all prices are up 20%. is that a 12-price earnings ratio. emerging markets equities. at an 11 earnings market ratio they are offering you 9% yield, compared to 5% earnings yield on the top level s&p 500. we're long under the hood of the asset classes that aren't been added year to date >> you mentioned, you used the word panic, in terms -- sounds like you're looking for our waiting for some sort of larger sell-off to get excited about. where do you think causes that the fed with the market wanting the believe that they possibly could be

>> i think the two key risks are number one, yes, the fed and essentially, inflation we're extrapolating. a one-year break inflations are 1.5% the other one is earnings. again, we have high expectations and we are in a deceleration economically you balance these two risks. sometimes i sound pessimistic, scott. >> sometimes >> there's so many things that can cause the market fragility right now. we're dealing with very much slowing global growth. we're dealing with commercial real estate.

small, regional banks. all that downgraded. there's all that fragility at the top level. you want to see stocks go down one computation. we're invested we're all-cash investors we have long-term retirement oriented giants. it's a balance between stocks and bonds. and stocks waiting for the opportunity to overweight. >> i'm looking at areas of the market obviously, tech has done incredibly well along with com services i'm looking at the sector year-to-date industrials are up 11% why are industrials up 11% we know about the strength of the consumer discretionaries up 33% in other words, it's getting much harder to make the case this is a narrow rally that we've had. don't you think so even materials, for example,

now, they're not beating the s&p. but they're also positive by some 6%. this market, under the surface, may be better than people want to give it credit for, no? >> yeah. i agree with you and there's more to go in broadening market participation. for example, if you look at the sectors, they are starting with a lower valuation than the top-heavy part of the market there's more to go in the broadening if we get a pullback, you might think those are cyclical when you have a valuation buffer some unloved asset classes like the energy sector or the quality smoke app, they have a valuation buffer and you get a long rate shock, which you've seen over the last couple weekweeks, thenn the downside you can do better in the sectors for example, the last couple weeks, quality small cap has done better than the tech stocks that have been selling off

so, the risk/return looks better with the valuation buffer. some of it is running and broadening i i think it will continue >> sebastian, thank you. we'll see you soon sebastian page, t. rowe price. kristina is standing by with the close. >> looks like manchester united owners are ready to sell there's stock implications we'll get to, after the short break.

. about 15 minutes before the closing bell let's get back to kristina and the stocks she is watching >> as manchester united plays its first game of the premier league season. its shares are getting a boost the move comes amid the reports that the glazer family is announcing a sale of the club to a qatari royal nine months after opening up the bidding shares up 5.6% hawaiian electric shares are plunging on concerns of the electric utility's liability in the deadly maui wildfires. and they are lowering the price target saying it's unclear if the hawaiian electric caused the fire it's prudent to consider the

risk, in light of similar claims in states like colorado, california and oregon. shares are off 33% >> appreciate it thank you. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. when will the fed cut rates? will it be the end of this year? the first quarter of next? or the second quarter that some are predicting go to ask cnbc on closing bell on x, formerly known as twitter.

municipal bonds don't usually get the media coverage the stock market does. in fact, most people don't find them all that exciting. but, if you're looking for the potential for consistent income that's federally tax-free, now is an excellent time to consider municipal bonds from hennion & walsh.

if you have at least $10,000 to invest, call and talk with one of our bond specialists at 1-800-376-4376. we'll send you our exclusive bond guide, free. with details about how bonds can be an important part of your portfolio. hennion & walsh has specialized in fixed income and growth solutions for 30 years, and offers high-quality municipal bonds from across the country. they provide the potential for regular income... are federally tax-free... and have historically low risk. call today to request your free bond guide. 1-800-376-4376. that's 1-800-376-4376.

the results of our question of the day when will the fed cut rates? the end of '23 the first or second quarters of '24. the majority of you said the second quarter of 2024 that's what goldman sachs is predicting today betting against tech the one investor who is shaking up his ownership in that sector in a major way that and much more as we take you inside "the market zone. do not miss the interview with ron desantis that a'st 7:00 p.m. eastern on "closing bell. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life

insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. evs deserves a great deal. that's why comcast business is launching the mobile made free event. with our business internet, new and existing customers can get one year of unlimited mobile for free.

it's our best internet. powered by the next generation 10g network and with 99.9% reliability. plus one line of free mobile for an entire year. it's the mobile made free event-happening now. get started for just $49.99 a month. plus, ask how to get one free line of unlimited mobile. comcast business, powering possibilities. i remember when i first started flying, and we would experience turbulence. i would watch the flight attendants.

if they're not nervous, then i'm not going to be nervous. financially, i'm the flight attendant in that situation. the relief that comes over people once they know they've got a guide to help them through, i definitely feel privileged to be in that position. ♪♪ power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

we're in the "closing bell" market zone. michael picker against big tech. and phil lebeau. being there's a lot of bears around >> that is true. you got four weeks where the market did nothing they will bouncing today in terms of a little rebound in nvidia and some of the other nasdaq stock it didn't settle anything. you broke momentum a bit there hasn't been any disorderly worrisome vulnerability in the market

the if we get a little respite it seems very much a digestion type market. it has worked against the big nasdaq stock some of that being taken up again today. i wouldn't necessarily say all that is over >> leslie picker, to you the man made famous by the big short, has a new big short >> it's pretty big showing a combined notion value of $1.5 billion for some of the bearish bets against the broader market indexes mic micha michael burry, with the s&p.

that puts 2 million shares of the invesco qqq, that cracked the nasdaq and it's a limited revelation. my colleague e-mailed burry for additional e-mails he puts his portfolio protection we spoke about that earlier today. that's what david einhorn is doing at green light he added that portfolio protection through index hedges. an they have themselves as worried. einhorn says the inflation is more entrenched and the market is appraising. einhorn said, we think a reacceleration of inflation and higher rates could disrupt the bold narrative as a result, he's tightened the net exposure you have bearishness in the filings. the deadline is after the close today.

a small sample size, but interesting them, nonetheless. >> that goes to our conversation with, the reasons why those who are bearish, are bearish >> yeah. >> the same sorts of things from people >> the market is going straight up, into the end of the second quarter. it was mostly being led by overheated action in the nasdaq stocks it makes sense that is where you would say, bet against it. but you know, if those puts have not expired and he's holding them, they're worth a lot less than worth nothing at this point. we're up from the end of june. a little tough how to interpret it from this level there's been hedge fund managers to place you on the short side or to hedge. because it had treacherous to single-name stock.

dan lobe wrote about that in his shareholder letter it's consistent with the way that the market has caught bears back on the heels. and see if that changes with this little backoff. >> phil lebeau, i turn to you. if it works once, just keep doing it and cutting prices and tesla vehicles it depends on which market we're talking about. >> right in this case, scott, what we're talking about is china there's a report out overnight, when it comes to the model y and two specific versions of the model y in the china market, tesla has cut prices we're talking about the long-range and the performance version of the model y in china. tesla cutting the price under $2,000 keep in mind that this is what we've seen over the last year, year and a half. as that market gets bumpy, they have to put the prices sometimes. and that's what we're seeing right here

they have not changed the guidance they're protecting $1.8 million in global sales this year or global deliveries. nonetheless, this has put pressure on the other e.v. stocks out of china. a lot of questions whether or not we start to see more price cuts and we saw a round of it earlier this year, scott some are wondering if we're going to see it again. >> yeah. we could that's the two-minute warning. i turn back to the nasdaq. it's up now than it was. up near 1% a nice bounce for tech >> it has been a nice bounce some were going to point out the overall market has been negative not to say that invalidates what we're seeing right here.

it's not one of the all-in moves. we just left behind the idea a lot of people did, that a recession is kind of right over the next -- right over the next turn and at this point, now, it's about figuring out if we're reheating again. i think that leads us on balance, a little bit tentative here although, we'll say that, even though the market didn't capitalize on a better-than-expected earning season, it has pulled up the estimate we know what is a run rate of the next few quarters, probably. >> you mentioned rates let's cap it on noting the ten-year hit its highest level of the year. 4.2, 420 that's a touch to help the nasdaq nonetheless. ahead of jackson hole. >> it's something to keep an eye on

also, worth pointing out the last time we're at 4/2, on the ten-year, the nasdaq is at 30% lower. we're in a different spot relative to the rates we were. >> mike santoli, all of you, as well we're going green across the board. we'll see you tomorrow into "o.t.," with morgan and john is the dow into the green after all. but the winners stay late. welcome to "closing bell overtime," i'm jon fortt, with morgan brennan we'll bring you those breaking reports as we get them we're going to the top of the board rooms with ursula burns. the top ceo who sits on the ceo of endeavor. stocks an up-and-down session with mixed results