tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC August 15, 2023 5:00am-6:00am EDT
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. china surprises by cutting interest rates. u.s. futures under pressure right now putting the dow's winning streak in jeopardy. former president trump now facing new criminal charges in georgia in connection to the probe into efforts to overturn the state's results in the 2020 election. retail sector comes into focus today with earnings from
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home depot on the agenda will the result lead to a remodelling project for that stock? the race to be the leader in the fast growing artificial intelligence market as rbc tells us who is ahead of the pack and who is lagging behind. it is tuesday, august 15th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning welcome to "worldwide exchange." i'm the dominic chu in for frank holland. let's kickoff with the equities which are sliding. dow is implied lower by 165. s&p lower by 17. the 43 point slide for the na nasdaq you see the yieldsin the bond market moving in that mentality as well with a little bit of
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selling pressure which is pushing the yields higher. 10-year treasury is above 4.2% 4.216. the 2-year treasury is pushing up on that 5% mark 4.967% 30-year treasury is a hair below 4% in the energy markets, signs of downward moves wti is down .20% $82.35 similar for ice brent. $86.12 is the last trade let's get to the developing story. china central bank cutting interest rates amid more disappointing economic data. eunice yoon is joining us now from beijing with the details there. eunice, how concerning is this because i believe global markets
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right now are looking at this move and saying this is a liquidity event. this is good the government is stepping in. why is the government having to step in? >> reporter: exactly exactly. china cut a key policy rate by the most since the start of the pandemic three years ago the message is what you said of heightened concern by the policymakers we have not seen major moves to stimulate and stabilize the economy. in terms of what the central bank did, it cut the one-year lending by a surprise 15 basis points this is big this cut the seven-day rate used for short-term liquidity to the bank the signal to investors is we will see further easing to come. it also, as you suggested, come
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at a time when the economic data was incredibly downbeat for july retail sales were up 2.5% from a year ago if you compare that to a time when we were more or less in lock up, that is bad factory output, miss private invinvestment shrank. real estate tumbled down 8.5% year on year urban unemployment at 5.3% against 5.2% in june what is the big talker, dom, is the fact of the youth unemployment figure has been suspended. previously in june, the number hit 21.3%. that means one in five young people were having trouble finding a job. now the government says it describes it as further o
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optimu optimumzation. >> that's what we want less transparency. eunice, what do they say more in depth about the real estate sector given what we see with the biggest real estate companies and players out there right now? this is a real problem for the chinese government and central banks. >> reporter: absolutely. a major problem. and the statistics bureau addressed the problems in the real estate sector saying this is an adjustment period. also saying this is going to pass of the not s-- pass. not surprisingly with the optimistic look, but the major discussion over here is the government needs to do something about with the crisis of confidence not only about the economy and consumption, but
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more specifically about what is going on in the property sector. >> eunice, the dollar against the yuan is moving higher eunice yoon, thank you let's go to joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom with the latest market action on the european continent i see a lot of red, joumanna that's right, dom. overnight, markets have been tracking closely all of the news coming from china. initially, the reaction was more negative within the last hour, it has emerged with the pboc cut the short-term interest rates. that gave a floor to the price anxious. shanghai ended the day 7 basis points from the floor. hang seng down 1%. a lot of focus was on the property sector as eunice was saying
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we have seen a lot of green in the nikkei up .50% we are finding the gdp number for the quarter came in at the growth rate of 6% annual blasting through the expectations in europe, the mood is subdued all of the indices in the red. ftse 100 is down 1.2%. this is reaction to the strong wage data we got this morning. putting pressure on the bank of england. the markets were quick to re-price the hiking profile from the bank of england. cac 40 is down 1% as well. i want to remark that russia is seeing movement in the ruble at the central bank hiked interest rates during the emergency meeting this morning this is after the plunge in the ruble. we are coming back this morning,
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but this is in response to the emergency meeting from the central bank dom. >> joumanna bercetche with the latest in europe thank you very much. let's get more insight on this with ross mayfield ross, this was a surprise move the markets are lower because of it or partly because of it they are not falling or panicking. what does this tell you the world's second biggest economy is doing to shore things up? >> i think there is no panic because this was one of the known/unknowns reopening has not gone the way china wanted the property sector was unknown. no issues and ultimately the expectation for the government to step in i think the reaction is subdued and markets are up because you
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have those questions of how bad really is it and the suspension of the data and you wonder where is the transparency going and is something obscured broadly, it is sad for global growth if china is not participating. by and large, this is bad for growth and that is reflected >> we are seeing fractional declines in u.s. equity futures. this is nothing to worry about right now, but shows a sign of weakness if you look right now of the way things are shaping up, the nasdaq and s&p are seemingly wanting to take a break right now. the earnings catalysts have been generally good what exactly is the concern right now if the conventional wisdom is becoming the fed is near the end of the rate hiking cycle and corporate fundamentals
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are still good and the economy, particularly jobs, are still holding up why the downside move in the market >> i think you are right about earnings it is enough to put a floor in the market corporate fundamentals are helh holding up they have not fallen as far as many forecast. we have not gotten them in the same way as nvidia last quarter. earnings are still falling profits are stabilizing. guidance is fine it is not an upside catalyst, but it puts a floor on the market we need to see earnings continue to exaccelerate in q3 and q4 an especially 2024. the market is tapped we have a forward multiple of 19 or 20. that is a good move especially with the move with rates
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i think an orderly breather here is normal. we are in a seasonal rough patch. >> ross mayfield, thank you. let's get the top corporate stories with silvana henao good morning, silvana. >> dom, good morning u.s. steel shares taking a bre breather the move coming after another bidder emerged for the steelmaker a privately held company is making a $7.8 billion all cash offer. that topped the bid from cleveland cliffs with u.s. steel rej rejected it is headed by the former vice president for the european business u.s. steel would not comment on the offer, but welcomed the
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company to join the parties inn p in -- involved in the process. the major hollywood studios extended a new offer to striking writers of the including concessions on the artificial intelligence studios agreed to assure writers credited for screenplays and not replaced by a.i. the report says netflix ceo and disney's bob iger has emerged as strong voices to reach a deal with the writers guild speaking of iger and disney. ron desantis said the company should drop the lawsuit. ordered to revoke the special tax districts. the republican candidate spoke about the case with our brian sullivan on "last call." >> we moved on they are suing the state of florida. they will lose that lawsuit.
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i would say drop the lawsuit you have the state that even cnbc ranks as number one of all 50 states for the economy. he le we lead the nation people are bringing capital to florida of the your competitors do well here universal seaworld we want to treat everybody the same i'm fine with that i'm not fine with giving extraordinary privileges to one special company at the exclusion of everybody else. >> you can see the rest of the interview with florida governor ron desantis right now on cnbc.com >> thank you, silvana. a lot more to come including the one word investors need to know today and the one move that warren buffett needs to make into one sector that is raising
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eyebrows on wall street. and the expanding a.i. and the two countries looking specifically at one of the biggest players in the booming a.i. market. we have a busy hour eawhahd en "worldwide exchange" returns after this commercial break. t is with your erc tax refund so you can improve your business however you see fit. rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. clink! dr. marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. emily used part of her refund to buy... i run a wax museum. let innovation refunds help you get started on your erc tax refund. stop waiting. go to innovationrefunds.com you really got the brows.
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looking to extend the rally of 10% yesterday. morgan stanley named it a top pick ahead of the earnings meeting next week. the financial times reporting saudi arabia and the uae are buying up thousands of nvidia high performance chips for a.i. software as they look to super charge their economies this as a number of companies and countries are competing in the global a.i. arms race. our next guest says this will with result in a handful of winners. the managing director of software at rbc is joining me here on set of the uchltset thank you for the early wake-up call a.i. is the rising tide for so many companies you are convinced it will lead to the handful of companies emerging as true winners how do you pick them
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>> thank you for having me i draw the analogy of the early days of the internet the way we use the internet today is leaps from what we saw from the hype of the bubble. where are all those? amazon and maybe a handful of others where the value accrued a.i. will be like that how do you pick them we look in my area of coverage and you look at the companies where you see the most amount of innovation happening and moving quickly to embrace generative a.i. they are looking around that that is not just microsoft, but others as well >> there are the building blocks people we talk about the nvidia of the world which makes the stuff that goes into the infrastructure you talk about the software companies and a bunch of people in the middle and a bunch of
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people who use a.i. applications to drive their software business maybe a company like salesforce. maybe a company like zoom. i don't know others out there what makes the value proposition more positive for some of those companies versus others? >> two things. number one is the speed at which companies are moving that is why i said hub spot. that is challenging salesforce head-to-head salesforce should be in a good position to benefit from generative a.i i need more from salesforce acting and integrating this technology more than what i seen from them. maybe this is an oversimplification are you adding more value by having chatgpt open in a separate browse er window
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i see if they are delivering enough value to charge >> i heard a lot from traders trafficking in many of the a.i. ecosystem names. that is what an appropriate valuation. these are not companies that generate a ton of prosfits how exactly do you say that a company is rightly or under valued and has room to grow as owes p opposed to move? >> i think we have to look at the mon monitized how much revenue and free cash flow can microsoft generate from office and security and all of the azure and open a.i.?
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what can it get with nice get as a result with selling generative a.i. ultimately that is where we make the decision if the stocks are pricing in too much. palantir is pricing in too much from a.i. over the economic reality or mongodb with a lot of room to run on the back of a.i. that is not on the model yet >> hubspot and mongodb thank you, rishi >> you got it. coming up on "worldwide exchange," warren buffett's big bet for berkshire hathaway that is coming up next >> announcer: tech drivers is brought to you by workday. the finance system for a
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welcome back let's check on the top headlines with frances rivera in new york. good morning >> dom, good morning a sweeping 41-count criminal indictment is what the fulton county grand jury brought against former president trump and 18 allies. this came after the two-year investigation by district attorney fannie willis in the attempt to overturn the 2020
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f election in georgia. trump faces racketeering and conspiracy charges >> the indictment alleges that rather than abide by georgia's legal process for election challenges, the defendants engaged in a criminal racketeering enterprise to overturn georgia's presidential election results >> all 19 defendants, including rudy giuliani and mark meadows have ten days to turn themselves in voluntarily with an august 25th deadline. the former president has maintained his innocence he called it an politically inspired indictment. dom. >> thank you, frances rivera now time for one of the big money movers housing stocks shares of lenard and d.r. horton moving higher after the s.e.c.
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filing shows that berkshire took new positions in the home builders in the second quarter that adding to the rally for the industry with all three of those names up anywhere from 35% to 42% this year. residential real estate is still on fire. still to come on the show, consumer is in focus investors are gearing up for the report from the biggest retailers in the nation, plus retail sales data out later on this morning we get you up to speed on what to expect. if you haven't done so, follow our podcast if you miss "worldwide exchange," check us out on apple ctfspotify or podcast plaorm ofhoice. we'll be right back.
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doors at amazon. it is tuesday, august 15th, 2023 you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm dominic chu in for frank holland on tuesday morning let's pick up with the u.s. equity futures which are off dow implied lower by 170 on the down side. s&p 500 lower by 17 points nasdaq lower by 45 if these moves hold into cash tradings at 9:30 a.m this was the driving force into the sentiment so far we had china central bank cutting the interest rate on two or three key parts of the sho shorter-to-medium side of the lending market that implying that the economy does need more propping up the second biggest economy right
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now. you see the nikkei in japan up .50%. hang seng is up 1% in trading. the shanghai and south korean kospi showing signs of red the asian markets are carrying into european trading. the dax off .75% cac 40 in france similar to the downside 1.25% for the ftse 100 in the uk ftse mib is up .50%. ibex in spain is down .25% if you check out the bond yields, u.s. treasuries fall in value and go up in yield 10-year treasury note is now back above 4.2 just a hair below 4.22%. the 2-year treasury yield is 4.965. the 30-year treasury is now 4.315. watch the prices falling in the u.s. treasury side of things
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it has been a week since moody's downgraded the regional banks and put others are owe view. now another agency is close to following suit targeting the biggest lenders. cnbc's hugh son joins us now hu hugh, why the move and the driving force of the negativity on the bigger lenders now? >> reporter: good morning, dom just to be clear, as you pointed out, last week, moody's with the slew of bank downgrades. this is in the air i met with fitch earlier this week this discussion we had was centered around them not wanting to surprise the market of the potential risk of the slew of downgrades to talk about the mechanics of that, they have a score for the
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u.s. banking industry. that is aa minus if the conditions deteriorate and losses on commercial loan credit or interest rates rise or stay higher for longer, they have to look at taking that score down to a plus the problem that introduces is our country's top rated banks like jpmorgan chase and bank of america and other banks are rated at aa minus. the problem is you cannot have banks rated higher than the operating environment in which they operate it would trigger, potentially, the downgrade of jpmorgan chase and boa. once you have done that, you have to look at the rest of t theinstitutions rated by fitch and see if they needed to be downgraded to maintain the gap with the top rated banks and other banks. >> it is like grading on a curve is what it comes down to with
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the ratings. i wonder -- by the way, if you are interested with the viewers or listeners, this story just posted on cnbc.com it is seeing pick up in interest i wonder why spfolks worry abou d downgrades is that leads to strategy changes some only want to invest in bonds or stocks of a certain type of rating is there a worry from the industry overall if this were to happen that there could be a bit of a ripple effect because some investors may not be able to invest in certain types of stocks or bonds from these banks? >> reporter: absolutely, dom you nailed it. there are insurtitutions that ae at the edge of investment grade. low in the spectrum of investment grade what happens if the likes of jpmorgan chase gets downgraded
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and other folks have to be looked at in terms of cuts does that push the insur instit? what is illustrative, after moody's last week, morgan said they were looking at the downgraded institutions. they would have to pay higher costs to issue debt which is more risky this could lose access to debt markets overall investors seek a high premium for the bonds and they would not afford issuing debt. that could potentially, dom, increase pressure on bank margins. that is really one of the themes that came out of the moody's downgrade. the pressures on the industry and an pprofit margins are increasing >> they are competing a lot for the yields and depositor money
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hugh son, thank you. for more on the story, it broke in the last three minutes. the story is fully on cnbc.com thanks to hugh son let's check on the corporate stories outside of banking silvana henao. >> dom, good morning amazon devices chief david lyim is leaving the company he had been at the company for 13 years he added he is not sure what is next, but it won't be in the consumer electronic space. a successor has not been named andy jassy notes an announcement will come soon discover financial shares falling after the company announced it has accepted the resignation of chief executive roger hochschild and move to the advisory position.
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the banking firm appointing the board director john owen as interim ceo and interim president and forming a committee to look for a permanent successor. and netflix is seeking to make gaming playable outside of phones and tablets the company is rolling out a limited beta test to groups in canada and uk on tvs and will expand testing on pcs and macs in the coming weeks. >> fun and games at netflix. thank you. retailers are kicking off with earnings at home depot in the next hour. the key question is can the home improvement chain reverse the downward trend after missing revenue estimates last quarter which was the first back-to-back decline since 2019 home depot has the largest earnings rating since amazon in
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the s&p 500. let's bring in michael baker at d.a. davidson. he covers home depot and other stocks like it michael, home depot's concern the last few quarters is falling lumber and profit margins. what is key for you today? >> we think what we will hear is a down quarter report in about 20 minutes less down than last quarter and not getting worse. we think it is okay right now for home depot and lowe's. it is not getting worse. expectations are low it is not a bad set up in earnings. >> if it is a good set up, is this a stock or company that can benefit -- there's been a huge
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macro question about whether or not we're seeing a trough process in the housing market or if we see activity does home depot or lowe's b benefit right now if we see the housing market get better? >> they will they are not benefitting yet, but they are getting close the number we look at is year over year change in home prices. that has been down four months in a row that is unprecedented. that is weighing in on comps it has been down four months in a row and it is getting better we think in the next couple months, we will see home prices up on a year over year basis we think that will be the signal for the base to pick back up >> this is a stock right now that trades, i don't know, 20 or
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22 times forward earnings. it is not that far off the overall market multiple. is it attractive in your mind from the valuation perspective that we do see an earnings catalyst drive the stock and get momentum to the near-term upside >> it is trading above historical average the short-term report today and we think the set up is okay. we think they can beat a little bit. you may get a pop in the stock we prefer lowe's on a longer-term basis because of the differential margin. home depot is the best retailer out with margins lowe's has been closing that gap. we think that will continue. lowe's has outer we will see a >> thank you, michael baker.
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now to washington d.c. members of congress are concerned about artificial intelligence and generated images and videos which are getting harder by the day to determine real or fake deep fakes emily wilkins is here about d.c.'s deep dive into deep fakes. >> dom, it is becoming harder and harder to see it is an image created by a.i. and some members of congress see that impacting national security to your reputation we have information on the formation of the new working a.i. group headed by the congress members kilmer said knowing what is a fake created by a.i. is a top priority >> real concerns about the
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potential for a.i. general p rated disinformation and miss yous -- misuse of the models that requires congress to get smart and smart fast that is where the democratic coalition has cut its teeth. >> reporter: kilmer says he will introduce the bill to require the department of homeland security to report it would be a crime to show altered photos another bill is an image shows a watermark. s dom, there are other issues surrounding workers to lose their jobs with the technology >> emily, when do you think we'll see a.i. related
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legislation coalicoming to the of congress? we know things move in d.c., but slowly >> they do, dom. what is interesting about this issue is how many lawmakers have shown a real interest in the regulation of a.i. and coming up with rules and standards to protect national security and personal privacy this is the latest working group from capitol hill. there are a number of bipartisans in the house and senate senate majority leader chuck schumer told us he hopes to have a bill in the next couple months ambitious goal >> emily wilkins in washington, d.c. thank you. coming up on the show o, wh another big bank is betting on nvidia's run and how high that stock can go lkin' a (josh allen) is this your plan to watch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket.
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my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. . welcome back to "worldwide exchange." time for the morning call sheet. morgan stanley is cutting the price target of yelp to $32 a share. the firm is saying yelp will face competitive challenges and cautious in the ability to compete in the a.i. ad landscape. shares are getting started with trading. we will see how things pick up
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ubs with the price target on nvidia to $540 a share ahead of the earnings report next week. ubs saying investor expectations have risen, but recommends to stay the course and remain bullish with the stock pullback. shares up 1.5% in the pre-market trade after a bounceback yesterday. time for the global briefing china's central bank cutting rates today from 2.65% to 2.50% on the efforts to ramp up support for the struggling economy. the cut is the second one in three months and follows another batch of disappointing economic data with industrial output rising and retail sales rising at a slower pace. russia central bank hiking
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to 12% in the emergency meeting in the effort to halt the rapid depression of the ruble. the loose monetary policy is to blame with the accelerating inflation with the ruble at the 16-month low against the u.s. dollar. the one word every investor needs to know today and our next guest we should take a page out of wayne gretzky's playbook. if you haven't already, follow our podcast if you miss "worldwide exchange," check us out on apple or spotify or podcast app of choice we'll be right back.
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to dozens of banks after the agency cut the assessment of the industry's health going back to june. grand jury indicting former president trump in georgia of t the interference of the 2020 presidential election. shares of u.s. steel pairing back the gains after the private company offered $8 billion all cash bid. saudi arabia and uae buying up chips used for a.i. applications as they look to super charge their economies. shares of lenard and d.r. horton after a boost from warren buffett with the positions into those companies. the moves adding to a rally in home builders with all three names up so far this year.
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and the hollywood studiostes concessions on the a.i. and the viewership numbers as well. looking at the markets overall, we saw a bounceback for the nasdaq we are trying to see what is happening as we keep a close eye on the 50-day moving average you see we bumped up against it with yesterday's session we are above the longer term 200-day trend line something to keep an eye on. with regard to the volatility, stock marketvi volatility is at 15 if you look at the longer-term trend line, 200-day average on the rolling basis is close tr to 19 we will see whether or not that
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plays into the positioning that traders have right now let's bring in kevin simpson chief investment officer at capital wealth management. kevin, is there anything concerning to you about the setup for traders and investors? 12k . >> i'm always concerned, dom from the trading perspective and option perspective, it is a lamb sleeping against the lions we can make a case that markets are close to full valuation here based on next year's earnings. data from inflation is important to determine what the fed will do next. this week comes down to the u.s. consumer we get retail sales today and we get the retailers reporting and listening to what they're saying
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about profit margins and sales moving forward are the things i'm paying most attention to here. >> we are showing the calendar a ton of stuff is happening with the pulse of the u.s. consumer is there anything that can happen from one or two key reports or across the week that changes the market narrative overall and where stocks could go from here for the second half of the year? >> absolutely, dom specifically, it comes down to profit margins and pricing and earnings forecast. you know, inflation coming down is great we don't want the fed to continue to raise rates. they need an abatement of inflation. this allows us to have an e expanding multiple the one thing we have to pay attention to is inflation coming down can impact earnings and profit margins
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econ 101 is prices go up and sales go down. that hasn't happened you can push the consumer only so far with price appreciation we want to see a retail sales resilience today and earnings reports showing people are still spending there have been some cracks a bit percolating under the surface. tesla is lowering prices on cars ford is easing pricing on lightning. i believe mixed in is pricing pressure p&g hints they can push pricing so far and it is impacting sales. paying attention to the retailers you showed is going to be important to get the state of the consumer as long as the consumer is resilient, which is our word of the day, that means the stock
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market will do well. once that puts pressure on the consumer, we will be cautious going forward. >> resilient consumer. kevin, before we let you go, is there a part of the market you stay away from right now too risky? >> i have to be allocated to all sectors. things that may be ahead of their skis, mega tech and a.i. stocks and you cover nvidia as we all pay attention to it the valuation is not a bubble, but taking profits makes sense for us, we own microsoft and apple. thank goodness we do we have been trimming on the way up a little ahead of their skis so much of the market hasn't participated yet there is a broadening out in july and suggestargue for sure you can make money pin healthcar
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good morning stock futures are under pressure we are watching the markets in china after the dismal economic data and surprise interest rate cut. warning to the banking industry fitch telling cnbc it may be forced to downgrade the credit ratings from banks like jpmorgan chase and bank of america. earnings strap yourself in. due any moment from home depot we will bring you the numbers and reaction on this tuesday, august 15th, 2023. "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are liveat the nasdaq marke site on times square i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen and mike santoli. becky is off today we have 50% more boys. >> we hhave recourtney regagan >> hang on >> we're good. >> let's look at u.s. equities at this hour we have a couple of things going on earnings will hit the tape a
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