bell, so, that cost conscious consumer with cisco after the bell software for building things like chips >> and china was in focus today, weaker than expected data, cisco, that's a market for that company, among so many others, something to watch that's going to do it for us here at "overtime. >> "fast money" starts now indeed it dushgoes, and on "fast," why investors should play close attention to the technicals for apple and microsoft. we'll go inside the key levels for these tech titans. plus, troubles in china. new data on the economic slowdown happening in beijing, and the ripples that could hit our shores in the months to come new reporting from inside china is minutes away. and later, topping the tape on a ridesharing favorite of our traders. the options action on target ahead of earnings. and can home builders keep

booming or will rising rates drop the hammer on the sector? i'm tyler madison, in tonight for melissa lee, glad to be with you this is "fast money," live from the naz sdaq market site we have a full table tonight last time i was here, nobody -- just one -- >> we knew you were going to be here we showed up. >> thank you very much tim seymour is here, karen finerman, dan nathan, guy adami. thank you for joining me thank you for letting me play at your table >> glad to have you. >> we start with a late-day breakdown in the markets stocks accelerating their selloff in the final half hour of trading all three major indexes down more than a percent on the day, closing near their lows. the dow snapping a three-day win streak, nasdaq, s&p, now both lower in ei8 of the last 11 sessions and look at this the s&p breaking below a key level of support today, closing below its 50-day moving average. something it hasn't done since late march and the tech titans also flashing some technical warning

signs. apple, microsoft, as well, have been clinging to their 100-day moving averages. apple breaching it today for the first time since january, and tim, you flagged the key levels for apple and microsoft. why they are such tell-tales >> we know the sheer weight, we talk about that all the time, but the weight of these names is the weight on the market as much as we've talked about the broadening for the markets, industrials, trants psports, em makes fresh all-time lows. as someone getting baulled up about em, you've had a lot of head fakes a week ago, we lost the semis. we all have talked about semis, in terms of their leadership you lost that leadership and then you then had the qs, which, you know, yesterday, essentially gave up that 50-day, and today, the s&p, as well so -- that's happening at a time when if we're getting a breakdown in the biggest names in the market from significant levels at a time when maybe we're getting a breakout in

yields, and we'll sprinkle in china, sprinkle in fitch, sprinkle in some other things that people -- just wasn't part of the evasion >> how, guy, important to you is the idea that these wbell cows f the market are breaking below some technical support levels? >> extraordinarily but the audience should know, you got a late call for this you are hanging out back in ec -- >> that's right. >> and you -- that's the pro you are. that's -- >> i was -- it's called rushmore >> he's on it. >> he limelissa was called to jy duty >> indictments are everywhere. >> she was freed, however, so, she will be back -- >> free melissa, that's the hash tag that's trending. to answer your question -- >> and thank you for the -- >> you're welcome. they're extraordinarily important, i've said it, i think it's true. microsoft is one of the five most important companies on the planet it doesn't mean the run up of the stock didn't get extraordinarily expensive, given

the earnings releases. they've been good, but not great by microsoft standards and apple, a stock that everybody seems to think just goes higher, i actually does go lower, as well we've seen three disappointing quarters by apple standards, a company that is very expensive on valuation, especially with interest rates moving higher so, it is important, these companies, and more importantly, the fact that microsoft seemingly put in a huge double top, and apple is now flirting with its prior all-time high, that's something to be concerned about. >> wasn't it at an all-time high within the last month, right >> yeah, so, the two of them specifically sold off after earnings, they've been down 10%. another one can you throw in there is tesla all three companies disappointed on some sort of metric that a lot of investors had not been really too worried about from a valuation standpoint in the runup. carter has been on the show, you know, a dozen times over the last few months talking about, really, this perfect 45-degree angle that those companies have had from their lows, whether it

was apple early this year, microsoft late last year and, you know, just the magnitude of market cap that had been gained and the valuation in which it was trading at, relative to other parts of the market this is really important we've had this conversation a little bit you take out the seven stocks that make up 25%, 26% of the s&p 500, they're trading at multiples they have not been that comfortably trading at above 30 times, at least microsoft and apple. the rest of the market, the cyclical stuff, the energy stuff, that stuff was trading well below a market multiple, so, they were pricing in recession, where as a lot of these other larger names were not. that froth is coming out of it, and a lot of it has to do with the fact that we have this excitement around a.i., this really strong secular shift that is going to play out for years, if not decades, that sort of thing, but a lot of the enthusiasm was encapsulated in a short period of time in trillions of dollars of market cap in a small group of names and i think that's what's coming undone right now >> we talk about the technical

things that are man if ifesting themselves, but tim mentioned china, fitch, all kinds of other little worries, you've got fed in here somehow. where do we put these technical measures in that broader context of other things that are making the market maybe over the last three weeks a little jumpy >> well, one of the other things, i think, is interest rates. so, we look at the ten-year -- >> going up. >> this morning hit a little over 4.25, closed at 4.21. so, it's sort of just coming back to math, which is the higher the risk-free rate, the lower the multiple for stocks. so, i think that's what's happening here, and we see it more in the really high flyers, names, you know, with huge multiples, so, the qqq is getting hit more, the igv getting hit more >> so, what causes -- >> i like some of the other names of lower pes but that's not working right now, either. >> why are interest rates going up the way they are? >> we had a guest that talked about the sheer volume of supply to come to the markets is

making, you know, you got to -- >> you have to pay more. >> yes >> you have to pay more to attract buyers >> yeah. so, we're seeing a big move in the ten-year, a big move in the 30-year, and the -- >> we're a financial show. no one wants to hear about politics on this show. i'll say this. the indictments, but more broadly, the backdrop of fitch and deficits and what the fed has to do, but what the government has to do, the refunding schedule, but if the ratings agencies are telling us that they're watching politics in this country, as a guy that followed em for years -- we never worried about politics in this country it was never about the circus in d.c. the circus in d.c.'s probably gotten a little more extraordinary in the last few years. but i just bring it back to, these are all ingredients why i think rates are moving higher. why they can at least move higher in, you know, in unison with each other. there's a lot of different reasons why we see rates move higher equities haven't had a chance to catch their breath and really

assess i mean, look there are a lot of people that started this year that felt we'd see a ten-year south of 3%, and, you know, we can very well finish this year with the ten-year north of 5% so, i just think for equities, the implications are bigger, and right now, there is macro going on >> thoughts? >> ten-year north of 5% by the end of this year, tim would agree, would not be good for equities, and bill ackman a couple yweeks ago top ticked the bond market. that day it traded up to 4.25. a week or so later, back in the 3.90s. rates are going higher for the wrong reasons. and it's not just here in the united states. japan, very quietly, rates are moving against them right now, and we'll talk about china later in the show. they seem to have issues, as well so, you have this sort of global bond market, seemingly unraveling at the wrong time and it's not supportive of equity prices >> yeah. >> final thought, dan? >> if you think about everything that's going on in china,

getting the deflation their readings, at the end of the day, if all of the stuff we learned during the pandemic, post-pandemic, the supply chain issues, everything we learned about russia's invasion of ukraine and what that means for energy and we had halima croft on last night, it's all inflationary so, your question was, rates, you know, they've come farther than a lot of people thought and i think we have to be prepared for them to stay higher for longer, unless, again, we find ourselves in a situation like in march, where we have, you know, a regional banking crisis. or maybe there's a crisis, listen, the higher rates go, and there's a lot of smart folks talking about this, i mean, listen, we thought those mark to market issues, the held to maturity sort of issues were not going to be a big thing for a lot of the money center banks. that might be the case we might start tosee that in the back half of the year, especially if rates continue to go higher, and these bond portfolios go lower and we have deterioration of credit and we're seeing a lot of these

things why did the banks get hit so hard all the stuff going on in china, you're thinking about who has exp exposure, these are things we've done in the energy path in '14, '15, and '16 who had exposure there when crude oil was trading at 25 bucks. to me, i think we're going to have a nice opportunity to put a lot of the themes of 2023 together, probably in the next couple of months or so, as we were waiting -- >> for what the knock-on effects are -- >> different themes, and i know we have to move on, but the consumer was where we thought the world was going to fall first. we thought the labor market was going to fall, 550 fed basis -- that's not what's happening. the late boar market is resilient, and the pressures we're seeing are from places -- >> consumer spending was very good >> retail sales were solid today. >> very good perfect segue for our next guest to talk more about the markets and the impact of big tech and interest rates here, let 's brig in peter bookbar, cnbc contributor. peter, i'm sure you just listened to this con verversati

and you must be licking your chops, because you say the thing to watch here is the move in interest rates, the ten-year, especially explain. >> well, what's interesting, the market over the last couple months, i think, was getting comfortable that inflation's moderating and the fed's almost done and then all of a sudden, we get smacked with this rise in long-term interest rates that i don't think anybody or not many anticipated and guy made the right point before that they're rising for the wrong reasons they're not rising because there's been this sudden acceleration in economic growth around the world they're rising for the boj making a move, the last major central bank to finally join the tightening party, and you guys discussed about the supply at the same time the fed is essentially selling treasuries, banks are no longer buying foreign central banks, and that the market's saying, well, the clearing price for when the ten-year should go, with all these moving parts, is higher. and i think that was really sort

of the surprise over the last couple weeks >> so, you say, you know, the market doesn't seem to understand the point that tim and guy just sort of made, which is the idea that rates may go higher, they may stay higher for longer, and karen, as well, making the point, that that is not good for equities. >> yeah, and this is now all parts of the yield kcurve. like i said, i think everyone got complacent, thinking that, oh, i don't want to miss the fed is done trade. and all of a sudden realizing, yeah, well, maybe the fed's almost done, but the ten-year is trading at 4.20, and that's a problem, and the 30-year mortgage rate, which is priced off the ten-year, according to bank rate, is at the highest level since 2000 23 years ago, you have to go back, the last time we had a mortgage rate that was this high >> yeah, it really is amazing. one of the reasons, i guess, a builder sentiment went down the

way it did, earlier today, if i'm recalling correctly. let's talk about where we began, and that was with the technical support sort of eroding on two of the bell cows of the market, microsoft and apple. what is your take there? >> so, these companies, if we remember, we go back to q-1, and we had sort of very pedestrian growth rates microsoft reported single digit revenue growth, apple reported a decline in revenue growth, meta, alphabet, very pedestrian single-digit revenue growth numbers. and that was cleared of everybody's mind with all the a.i. excitement. the beauty about earnings season is, it's always a nice reality check. and what we've seen with this past earnings season, q-2, is that these growth rates are still rather pedestrian. so, as great as these companies are, you know, there's still this love affair with them but their growth rates, they're

not growth companies anymore they will decent growers, but all of a sudden started to trade at very hefty growth-like multiples. and like i said, earnings was a reality check that earnings growth is just okay. nothing great. and i think the decline we saw in microsoft and apple, with those two being the biggest, with even after the correction, the combined market cap of the two companies being $5 trillion, that i think that was really noteworthy, was the pull-back postearnings for them. >> peter, thank you very much. let's knock around a couple of things peter just mentioned there, particularly, guy, the idea that these two great companies, i mean, by any standard, apple and microsoft are great american global companies, but they may not be growth companies. >> no. when apple was a growth company, ten years or so -- well, seven or eight years ago, it was trading at a value company valuation. now that it's a value company, it trades -- it's ridiculous and the same thing can be said

for microsoft. either one of them is probably either side of 30 times next year's numbers, and in this environment, that's expensive. especially if rates are going to continue to go higher. they are great companies, they just got very expensive very quickly. >> do you sell them? do you just not add to your positions? >> well, if you've been listening to me, you sold them a long time ago, so, that was the wrong advice, but you know, the best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago, the next best time is today. >> wow >> microsoft -- >> that's deep >> you liked that? >> that was good >> just stop right there show's over. >> end of the show >> let's go to jim, who is standing by. >> roll that back. >> 290ish is the 50% retracement of the recent all-time high in microsoft, and the low we made, you know, earlier this year, and it happens, huge double top. so, that's a level, i think, as scary as it may look when it gets there, that's when you want to start buying this thing >> all right any final thoughts >> i simply think -- you know, there's been a lot of doom and glom on this show tonight. i think i would put this into some perspective

160, i think you've got a nice pull-back in apple i think all these things were due to pull back i think the markets -- apple is up 54% to its highs from the start of the year. that's part of why we're having this conversation. these moves are so extraordinary, the fact of the matter is, today's retail sales numbers showed that nondiscretionary items were the ones that people were buying a lot of but things like apple, a lot of phones were pulled forward, a lot of electronics. we've got some new details on the jpmorgan and jeffrey epstein case,vers has the details. >> hi there, tyler we are learning just how late into the life of jeffrey epstein his referral relationship with jpmorgan continued, and just how plugged in epstein was into the government of the u.s. virgin islands. a document reveals that epstein's assistant emailed jpmorgan in february of 2019, many years after the bank had decided not to do business with epstein, and offered to introduce the bank to katherine

rumler a former white house counsel to president barack obama. a spokesman for goldman sachs declined to comment today. a document shows a similar 2007 introduction by epstein to nick ribbus, a longtime donald trump casino executive a c a call to him was not answered this afternoon and a newly disclosed email shows that the former governor john de jong asked epstein for a loan of $215,000 i appreciate your willingness to help, he wrote to epstein. cnbc has not obtained a comment from him this afternoon. and an epstein employee was able to obtain a seal from the u.s. customs department that would allow him to access secure areas of the airport and escort passengers through u.s. customs and border protection, tyler so, getting a sense here of how this relationship on the island evolved, and how his relationship with financial

executives and higher ups evolved, as well, over 250time back to you. >> the tentacles keep presenting themselves eamon, thank you very much. and coming up, banks feeling the blues after a fitch downgrade warning. but that doesn't stop one of our traders from scooping up shares of one of the big players. the name, the trader, the details next. plus, some bright spots in today's reddish sea. why the moves in comcast and lyft are catching our traders eyes, and how yoshldlau ou py those names. that's when "fast money" returns. n you more cash back in your top eligible spend category. hi. ♪♪ you don't have to keep tabs on rotating categories... this is the only rotating i care about. ... or activate anything to earn. your cash back automatically adjusts for you. can i get a cucumber water? earn 5% cash back that automatically adjusts to your top eligible spend category, up to $500 spent each billing cycle with the citi custom cash℠ card. i love it... [voice vibrating]

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all right, welcome back to "fast money. the banking industry on edge today, after news some of the nation's biggest and highest rated banks are at risk of being downgraded in a note earlier this summer, fitch ratings cut its assessment of the banking sector and said another downgrade could force the agency to re-evaluate its standing on more than 70 names including jpmorgan chase and bank of america. karen, you bought some jpmorgan, you're not worried >> well, i'm always worried about something, and i was long going into today, but yeah, i thought this fitch thing was overdone when i talk about high flyer

names, this is low flyers, low multiple and they asked jamie dimon what he thought about the fitch downgrade of the u.s. government, and he said, well, the market is going to decide what the downgrade is or not, and i think the same thing is true for jpmorgan credit in the bank space the absolute place to go so, to the extent this was about the downgrade, i want to own it here >> are there others in that class of large banks who might be at risk of downgrade? >> well, to dan's point about who handles -- who has some maturity issues, jpmorgan, no, bank of america, relative to where jpmorgan is, they didn't do nearly as good a job. so, i would think if one -- maybe they all get downgraded, i don't know, but i think the market will decide where they're able to issue debt but bank of america would be -- that's why i switched out of bank of america. >> dan >> yeah, we've been highlighting the underperformance of bank of america all year long.

but you know, when you think about this, there was a report today, and you saw the graeat retail sales, but you're starting to see default rates on things that people need to get loans, right, on cars and this sort of thing. they're going up >> delinquencies on credit cards. >> going up to pre-pandemic levels so, some of the good data we have, we get the bad data. and layer in, we're going to have student debt that has to be repaid again so, households will have to start budgeting. this week, as we digest what the retailers have to say, it might be really instructive back to school and into the holiday season and -- >> debt repayment going to be a big influence? >> going to take awhile to play out, i think people -- it's a great headline and up add it to the headlines in terms of the weight on the consumer, but tahe ability to no do anything with your student loans means this is going to

play out longer than we thought. we have an earnings alert on cava shares are jumping, the mediterranean restaurant chain posted earnings. kate rogers has details. >> well, cava posting a profit of 21 cents in its first quarter as a public company, on revenues of $173 million, that's $10 million higher than the analysts had estimated for the quarter. eps also a beat, as analysts were projecting a 2 cent loss for cava same-store sales soared up 18.3%. the average unit volumes also rose from 2.4 million in the prior year quarter to 2.6 million in this quarter. guidance for the full year also strong it expects same-store sales growth for the full year of -- between 13% and 15%. also projecting adjusted ebitda. the ceo sounding upbeat about the long-term talent at cava and he said he is seeing a very, quote, resilient consumer.

much more to come from the call, but the stock up 9%. >> that's a nice move, tim >> it's been a growth story, in trm terms of units and same-store sales. the profitability is something that caught people offguard. those retail sales numbers were good, but they weren't great for a lot of does cession their stuff, but restaurants and bars are kicking it, still. and that's part of the reason why you're seeing some of these numbers. no one expected profitability here, so, i don't know if you chase it, but it's impressive. there's a lot for "fast" to come here's what's coming up next comcast climbs while lyft lifts. two green arrows in a red day on wall street. the levels to watch in both names, next. plus, a surprise rate cut in china. as more data points to an even bleaker growth rate in the country. what the slowdown could mean for your money, ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

all right, everybody, welcome back to "fast money. comcast shares closing at the 52-week high the stock of cnbc's parent company now trading at levels not seen since april of 2022 the comcast gains today come as nielsen reported that for the first time ever, linear tv accounted for less than half of u.s. viewing in the month of july guy, you got some thoughts on comcast? >> i do. if you look at the move, you just said it, levels you haven't seen in quite some time. we just made a textbook 50% retracement of effectively the all-time high in the stock, and

the recent low decent volume day-to-day, it traded about 20 million shares, little more than norm am this is where you should probably be taking some money off the table. people will point to valuation, valuation has been compelling on the upside and downside in the entire space, but if you've enjoyed this move, i think you are starting to take some money off the table. all right, shares of lyft topping the tape today, gaining 4%, after the ceo disclosed he had bought 100,000 shares and take a look at this, lyft's 50-day moving average getting close to crossing above its 200-day moving average for the f fist time since october 2021 the stock is in two of our trader's acronyms this year, and it has been a drag, so, the question, dan, is it turning around >> well, possibly. i mean, listen, we all like the idea of a new ceo and the idea you're going to give them a little bit of a honeymoon period when you think about a company like this, the enterprise value of $4 billion versus their

competitors, and the importance of having a number two, that's the way we kind of operate here. i don't think lift is going away so, when i think about all the reasons that people are excited about ride share and autonomous driving and all these themes that are going to change transportation for decades to come, i think lyft has a brand, they have a foothold it was in my acronym for the most part because i thought there would be m&a -- >> compare the enterprise values again? >> $4 billion versus $97 billion. update that picture a little bit, i don't know -- >> the hair's changed a little bit, you know what i mean? >> let's work on that. >> great picture >> but again, i just -- to me, it's kind of -- look at this >> right here. >> you know, i don't know, i you this it's interesting. tim? it's in yours? >> to me, this is a combination of, the macro is their friend. i don't think is -- the headwinds of whatever we're coming out of and the headwinds of what we might be going into

are not their issue. the issues are particular to their industry, the drivers, and the competitive landscape. but the bottom line, there's plenty of room for -- >> are you guys believers in autonomous driving vehicles -- >> i'm not getting in one. i'll tell you that >> i'm not >> you're not? >> not for awhile. >> i'm not i don't trust it >> i don't think they work in cities i think the first application is going to be long haul driving, that sort of thing i think on highways and that sort of thing. i think for the most part -- right now, there's a group in san francisco, i think on "the new york times" podcast, a group that's opposing autonomous driver, they oppose all cars, they want to move people towards public transportation, but they are putting orange cones that you get off the street in a construction area on top of the thing, and they just stop. >> the cars stop >> you want to get in one of these things and it just stops in the middle of the road? they're coming up to fire trucks and they're stopping and -- so -- >> that whole thing -- >> take a long time.

>> yeah, they don't -- >> but listen, can i tell you this, this is why the whole tesla thing is a fugazi. they are selling 10,000 full self-driving per car, upgrade software, it's not -- he thought we were going to be here already. it's not happening for a decade. >> i own one of -- not one of the full self-driving ones, but even the sort of halfway one is a quirky thing to get used to, and it will -- >> you having trouble parallel parking? one of those things -- >> always have a problem with that >> he doesn't have trouble with anything you don't -- when you're driving, you want to see a tyler driving. you know, hanging out, hair going -- you don't want to see him sleeping in the car while some autonomous thing is driving for you. >> once upon a time, there was hair that would be flying out the window >> i always let you in the lane, too. come on in >> all right, coming on up, is china facing a confidence crisis a surprise rate cut disappointing data, silence on the youth jobless rate, we're going to tell you about that

how it's all pointed to a rough ride for investors we'll dive deeper into that one, next. plus, retail earnings are still front and center stateside. target and tjx both ready to report tomorrow. my wife will be listening to tjx and its brands what the traders expect, as well as the options pits, when "fast money" returns ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪

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welcome back the major indexes closing near their lows of the day. the dow off 361. s&p closed below its 50-day moving average, first time that's happened since march. nasdaq also lower. 1% declines for all three of them but here's another bright spot eli lilly shares back to its 1952 ipo that pharma stock up more than 20% just this month. raising full-year guidance last week after seeing its second quarter profit jump by 85% meantime, china's central bank announcing a surprise rate cut overnight, as that country sees more signs of slowing growth cnbc's eunice yoon has all the details. >> reporter: china cut policy

rates by the most since the start of the pandemic three years ago. the move signaled to many here that the policy makers are increasingly concerned about the economy. the central bank reduced the one-year medium term lending facility rate by a bigger than normal 15 basis points it also cut the seven-day reverse repo rate, the key rate guiding short-terminally widty for the banks. the surprise move came with downbeat data for july retail sales rose a pal try 2.5% from a year ago, when most of the country was under lockdown factory output missed. fixed asset investment mixed private invest contracted real estate investment sank. urban unemployment worsened. but the big question mark was about youth unemployment china suspended reporting the data, citing a need to improve and optimize the methodology joblessness among young chinese hit a new report in june

the decision to drop the jobs data didn't inspire confidence among investors. back to you. >> eunice, thank you very much for more on what china these economic slowdown could mean for investors, let's bring in david reedle, he's the president, founder of reedle research group. david, welcome good to have you with us what do you make of what's coming out of china? they're not going to publish youth unemployment numbers, because they don't like the numbers, they don't have anything to do with improving the methodology, for goodness sakes, but they have big problems in the property sector and a consume their is relatively, i would say, defensive right now. >> yeah, i really think a lot of people, myself included, were expecting a rebound after the covid reopening to last a little bit longer i think pay jing was expecting it to last longer, as well i think the reality is that during covid, the rest of the world figured out their supply chains for far too dependent on china. they diversified to india, to mexico, to other places, and so when china opened back up, they

found themselves without as many friends as before the pandemic so, i think some of this is self-inflicted some of it is the reality of the external world changing, but it's really a problem. after that, demographics, and a slowdown in overall growth and you've got some trouble for beijing. >> tim >> it's tim. so, i agree on the -- your notes, you rightly point out that 2% to 4% growth doesn't mean you can't invest in the region sentiment is as weak and as poor as i've seen some of the internet names are ones that i think are less about the macro than they really are about what the government is doing with the sector. can you talk about opportunities there? >> yeah, i really think -- we talked about this before, i think that we're telling our clients that we don't expect beijing to have any big crackdown on tech, any breakdown like they did with alibaba a couple years ago, with jack ma

disa disappearing i don't think you're going to see that that would be a self-inflicted wound for china. so, i think you're going to see some domestic stimulus maybe rebate programs. encouraging people to buy that new air conditioner or washing machine or electric vehicle, to really drive that domestic consumption. they like to have things they can control. they can't control the export environment right now so, they're going to try to build up domestic consumption to the extent they can. but their wallet is not unlimited like it was before the pandemic they can't just continue to spend their way through and borrow their way through these kinds of rough patches in their economy. so, this is a brave new world for china, and one that's going to be tricky for beijing to navigate >> karen >> yeah, david, thank you for being on do you think that, you know, there's a lot of talk about when or if they would look to invade taiwan, do you think this could be a time where, let's change the whole narrative of what's going on in the country now, and

this is something we can all rally around so this might be the right time to invade taiwan >> you know that i'm very concerned about that happening in the longer term i'm not concerned about it happening in the very near term. i think that the noise around the vice president's visit to new york was just last week tells you that they're very concerned about taiwan's growing calls for independence and separation from mainland china i think you really have to pay attention to the south china sea. i was very concerned by this attack recently by the chinese navy on a philippine resupply ship they shot water cannons at them. this is a real hot spot around the world, and i think we could look back five years from now and say, oh, we missed that the same way we missed russia/ukraine, and shame on us for missing what's a really serious problem in the south china sea. >> all right, david, thank you very much. david reedle we appreciate your time. let's trade this

is china investable right here or not >> i think it is i think our concern on the macro, i wouldn't be investing in chinese banks, i think the fxi is a difficult chart i look at the kweb, you are at the bottom of a uprange. i think em has problems with china. currencies are blowing out across em. and the yuan is something you have to watch. china is investable. and i think positioning is so weak that in the handful of these names -- i'm not betting on the macro >> august of 2015, yuan devalue in china sent glee obal marketig spiraling. what's happening right before our eyes, to tim's point, you're seeing this effectively devaluation right before our eyes our markets have not picked up on it yet. i think it's a matter of time before they do >> thoughts? >> you know, the investable one, i think we get ourselves in a little trouble here, don't we, on this show, when we say

uninvestable, because it goes right up this one's a hard one. carter, we were talking to him earlier today, he likes the technical setup, he thinks the sentiment is really poor and it's trying to make a little bit of a bottom. i guess from a trading standpoint, but all the things that david just said, i think there's lots of questions, you know and if there is some sort of geopolitical situation there, i think thes precedent that was set by u.s. multinationals in russia's invasion of ukraine, it's going to be hard to disregard that china is such an important part of a lot of growth plans for a lot of companies so, to me, i would be worried about u.s. multinationals and their exposure there and their deglobalization, their move away from the supply chains, and all of that is inflationary. >> ukraine is -- was frightening enough, but the idea of a hot war in taiwan is a real -- i don't think you could possibly overstate how cataclysmic that

would be >> yeah, and we would have to be all-in way more than -- >> yes, exactly. and when you think about the -- not that ukraine is an insignificant economic player, it certainly is in grains, but when you look at what taiwan produces -- >> and china >> and china produces, and what china produces, to your point, for u.s. multinational corporations, it -- this could be -- >> no bueno. >> this could be the game-changer on the century, not to overstate it. but i just said, you can't overstate it, right? >> you did it anyway >> i did it anyway >> on that cheery note, coming up, are you retail ready you better be, because we have two big reports coming out tomorrow so, will target and tjx ring the register we'll check in on the options pits next. and some shaky foundations for the home builders. why the sector is feeling as sour as it has been all year,

and what it means potentially for the stocks we've got that story when "fast money" returns, right here in times square

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tell the folks what we're talking about. >> aaron rodgers -- >> big fan of this show. we have to point out >> he is >> welcome to new york, aaron. >> gladded to have you welcome back to "fast money. two huge earnings reports out before the bell tomorrow target and tjx i don't think mr. rodgers will be at either of them -- maybe, you know, you never know he may like a bargain. >> new house he has to furnish parent company of tjmaxx will get its turn to tell the tale of the american consumer. target specifically underperforming tjx and its biggest rival walmart this year, down more than 15% sitting at its lowest level since july of 2020 how about that for target? what do you make of these names right now, karen >> i'm long all of them. >> you are long all of them? >> i am, with -- >> what do you see there that the market doesn't >> well, so, target, you know, back to the multiple between target and walmart is as wide as it's been in a really long time. walmart's doing a great job executing, target is not we talk a lot about walmart

having food and staples, things people need. target really excels at things people want with a higher margin and tjx is a little bit in between, home goods is probably not going to do great, but target, the -- i like it, i think at 23 and change times, they seem to do good -- they seem to do good business in any environment, right they seem to do well when there's a lot of excess goods, buy them cheap and sell them cheap and make margins still, or when the consumer is feeling good >> i'm very surprised home goods is not doing well, given the amount of time my wife spends there. >> maybe she's holding it up, because if you think about how the pandemic was extraordinary -- >> yeah. >> for home goods. >> right >> you are pretty stocked up on scented candles. >> you say that like it's a bad thing. by the way, the jomaae malone - henry bendle's candles back in the day were extraordinary they went out of business, it's

a problem for me, so, i've moved to jo malone >> jo malone >> they don't have that at home goods. >> i didn't say they did you brought it up. tjx, by the way -- >> got to go to saks for that. >> i think there have been some pretty -- pretty positive things about the name into earnings trades, i think, 26 times, which probably is reasonable for them. >> all right options traders are doubtful that tomorrow's report is going to lead to a turnaround for target mike khouw now with the action hey, mike. >> yeah, so, right now, the options market implying a move of about 7%, that seems like a lot, of course, it's moved even more than that on average the last eight quarters, the result of a couple disappointing ones, where we saw moves of 13% and 25% to the downside. traded five times its average daily put volume today one of the trades that stood out to me, a purchase of 1,200 of the september 120-strike puts. that traded for $4.80. the buyer spending $576,000 in premium betting that target is

going to drop below that $120 strike price by september expiration that's a month away. >> all right, there you go there's the call for more -- thank you, mike. for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show, friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time on cnbc. coming up, home builder holdup rising mortgage rates taking a toll on the construction companies. the whole housing picture ahead, when "fast money" returns. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade.

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all right, everybody, welcome back to "fast money. home builder sentiment dropping sharply in august, but that's the first decline in seven months, as mortgage rates approach new records though go back a couple of decades let's get to diana olick with the details. >> builders are blaming higher mortgage rates along other things for a drop in buyer interest, and that hit builder sentiment hard in august it fell six points to 50 on the national association of home builders index, the lowest since may, and 50 is the line between positive and negative sentiment. rates are the biggest factor the 30-year fixed hit 7.26%

today, according to mortgage news daily rates have been over 7% for several weeks now, reducing affordability. now, of the builder index's three components, current sales conditions fell five points to 57, sales expectations in the next six months dropped four points to 55, and buyer traffic dropped the most, down six points to 34, solidly in negative territory the builders also said they are going back to incentives again, after dropping sharply for four months the share of builders cutting prices now rose to 25% from 22% in july. one more little factoid, demand for fha loans to buy newly built homes is continuing to rise, meaning that first-time buyers who usually can't afford new construction are just trying to get in, because they can't find anything else to buy, tyler. >> all right, diane that, thank you very much. who wants to pick up here on the home builders, got a thought anybody? going once -- >> yes, so, we've had a great run, in fact, they've been more defensive --

>> they were so horrible last year >> even in the last few weeks. i think you get a place where the multiples on the builders themselves are actually still investable i don't think you want to chase, though i want -- >> there is one you like better? >> i would just say that what i've been doing, in fact, i store restoration hardware, i've been selling the peripherals what i heard out of retail sales today, there's going to be a lot less furniture going to be bought there was a snap-back trade here and a lot of things got destroyed when everybody thought the fed was going to knock them out. >> all right, we're going to take a pause, up next, the final trades be right back. the first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. we just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. start for free at godaddy.com this is cynthia suarez, cfo of go-go foodco., an online food delivery service. business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out.

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56 seconds that's what we got time for the final trade let's go around the horn >> that was exciting, tyler, thank you for having us. restoration hardware, be a seller >> you sold it today >> today >> karen >> yes, we just talked about it, tjx reports tomorrow morning it's not cheap but it's not expensive for the value they deliver. i'm long tjx >> dan >> yeah, xhb, the home builder etf. bought some puts today short-term bearish >> guy >> amazing having you -- your

wife is watching >> my wife is watching she likes jo malone. >> smart woman only human amgen. >> amgen that's the last word thank you for watching "fast money," everybody. you know what's up now "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. it is always working somewhere. i will help you find it. mad money starts now. hey, i am cramer. i'm trying to save you some money. call me or tweet me at jim cramer. i'm not thrilled about the setup here. it does not make a