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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  August 21, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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more from the podium. as for our race broadcast, thanks to ricky carmichael, jason thomas, will christien. i'm jason weigandt. congratulations. the lawrence brothers, they do it again. see if hunter can wrap up the title next week, see if jett can wrap the perfect season next week in indiana. so long from budds creek. good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. >> china seeks to stem a slump in the proxy sector, but defies expectations and calls for more stimulus cutting the loan prime rate and leaving the five-year rate unchanged. natural gas prices surge as un union leaders warn of strikes
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with platforms offline as soon as september 2nd. german producer prices ease back in july for the first time in two and a half years thanks largely to cheaper energy costs. u.s. treasury yields jump with the 30-year treasury going to a high and this leaves jackson hole to end the hiking cycle, but keep rates higher for longer. good morning. it is a special monday because i'm joined by julianna tatelbaum. >> we're back together. it feels like ages. >> stop going on holidays. >> i know. same to you. so nice to be back together. >> good to being back. did you have a restful time? >> it sounds more restful than you.
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>> it was busy. >> we thought august was quiet. u.s. numbers better than expected. slightly hawkish fmoc minutes. and wage data with china. that has been a big sdtory. we have been asking questions of what policymakers do to shore up the property sector. that story from overnight. first of all, welcome back. >> thanks for the rundown. you made it eeasy. let's talk about china. cut the one-year loan prime rate to 3.45% and defied expectations in the five-year lpr keeping the rate on hold at 4 p.2%. the property sector fueled the
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strong expectations from the central bank after the surprise cuts to short-term medium rates last week. this comes after a move of weak data from the second largest economy. the survey showed a surprise contraction in the manufacturing sector before exports boosted their steepest fall since the start of the covid pandemic. china cpi reading showed the country slipping to deflation for the first time since february of 2021. julianna, we have been talking about country garden and the country's largest developer and missing bond mapayments as wll. >> let's get a check on the markets in china. you have red across the board.
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china composite down 1.1%. convenien shenzhen pulling back 1%. looking at asian markets broadly. you see a bit of green on the board for nikkei up .40%. under performance in china. you have the hong kong market with hang seng performing down 1.8% this morning. on the geopolitical front, germany is looking to tighten up foreign investment roles according to reuters. finance minister could push for a new law to boost economic security as they look to derisk from china. glenn ford is joining us now. thank you so much for being with us this morning. >> my pleasure. >> so much to talk about when it comes to china. let me kickoff with what
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joumanna mentioned a couple of moments ago in the property se sector. it is so central to the chinese economy. how concerned do you think we should be about full-blown crisis in the property sector? >> i think i'm not an economist. i'm a political analyst. china is going through a rough period. yes, you are right. the housing market is crucial for the chinese economy. we have to see what happens with one of the big chinese companies which has gone into the bankruptcy protection. that's going to be a problem. >> when it comes to china's role on the geopolitical stage, to what extent do you think the economic troubles back home are influencing the way it goes back the geopolitical relations right now?
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>> i think just like any other country. if you have trouble at home, you turn to foreign affairs. chinese are nationalistic. pat patriotism goes a long way. >> i suspect a good deal of this is about decoupling. the concept of having to decouple, but do it in a way that is not impactful to the economy. >> i'm looking from the european union perspective or uk perspective. the covid pandemic showed us how dependent we were, overdependent on china and india with ppe and the rest. i think it is very sensible to look at derisking and looking at providing alternative sources of supply and the rest. shoring and re-shoring is sensible.
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we need to do it at a pace where we gently pull apart rather than care the relationship. when you get that that point, it is difficult. >> has europe started the process? >> it has. it is a process through the parliament and commission about in investment protection and labor rights and forced labor. a series of sets of legislation and what it means for the european companies and what they will have to pull away from china. not only are they asked to do it, but forced to do it. >> over the weekend, the reports that the german economic minister wants to put together a piece of legislation that would essentially restrict investment from chinese firms or at least reduce the amount of investment into germany. how easily is that to translate into action? >> it can be done.
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it can be done at a european level. trade relations are a european responsibility. there is a deal of concern of chinese investment in industries. what is strategic is spread more and more as you talk about security with telecommunication and i.t. and overdependence on energy and et cetera. it can go as far as you want. >> let me follow-up on her question how far germany can go with derisking its relationship with china given the dependence on china. >> that's the problem. particularly germany. germany has one of the strongest trading relationships with china and the chinese will not sit there and allow you to pick and choose too much. the chinese will be responding. that is one of the issues that
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has to be dealtfulcareful. it has to be careful with derisking, the word of the month or whatever. it has consequences. >> the other story is and we have been speaking about this with the author of "chip wars" coming on "squawk box" last week. the concept of the new arms race is of chipmaking. we are seeing more and more steps with the german government attracting more chipmakers to compete in the global race. >> that is exactly the problem because people talk about a new cold war. i think that's probably the wrong analogy. we are not in the late 1940s. we're in the late 1930s when the united states when through a period of sanctioning japan. they cut off a central supply of
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aviation fuel and metal and banned transit in the panama canal and the rest. it was fight or flight. we all saw what happened in pearl harbor in december of 1941. you are going through the same process now. it is not oil or aviation fuel, but it is chips now. the ban on selling high-level chips to china and selling the technology from japan and holland. you are forcing china into a corner. i guess some people know what they are doing. some people know that the sources of supply is taiwan. that really isn't necessarily the clever move. >> let me ask about the
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relationship with china. could we see the relationships begin to differ? >> i think those relationships aren't different at the moment. if you want the two camps being corralled. we had camp david over the weekend where the south koreans and japanese were with pulled into the u.s. camp. china tried to expand the bricks to create all ternative to g7. we see camp creation taking place. now the european position is closer to u.s. than china. one danger for brussels is it doesn't keep that seep don't ha interests. that's not an hour interests. we need to be close to
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washington, but not siamese twins. >> thank you for your views. glyn ford. as a reminder, you can follow us on x. you can get in touch with us and get involved in the conversation. @cnbcjulianna. >> i have a message on the platform. you should be watching. >> turn to your x as we return from the short break. >> not to be confused with exes. we take a deep dive into the german economy next as they loo. that's after this break.
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welcome back to "street signs." you would not have thought it, but stoxx 600 is off to a better sto start. it is up .60% after the weaker end to the week down 2.3%.
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negative price action overnight from asia pacific. we have been talking about the lack of more aggressive interest rates cuts from the pboc. they cut rates from the one-year lending rate, but not as much as the market expected. that set the tone for asian markets. here in europe, we are trading with more positive spin. there is not a lot of data to watch out for, but ahead in the week, we will have a lot for jackson hole. that is interesting to watch. powell will givea speech on friday and lots of issue there is about the next stage to monetary policy. we have retail names to report this week in the u.s. and on the macro front, the pmi flash numbers for the month of august coming up on wednesday. a lot to come still in the course of the week. in terms of the index, this is the breakdown with all of the
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majors trade in the green. ftse mib leading 1.2%. once again, the dax is up .50%. here we are keeping a close eye on the price action in the industrial names after the german ppi came in lower for the month at minus 1.1%. all those inflation pressure that came through on the ppi front, producer price index, started to subside. they are now in deflation territory. cac 40 is up .40%. ftse 100 is up .3%. thi in terms of sectors,this is leadership today. oil and gas with a spike in the price sector up 1.1%.
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healthcare is up 1.1% as well. a stock we talked about on the show is novo nordisk revised up by 7% on their stock price target. that is leading that basket. on the flip side, real estate with the home builder activity in the uk is dragging on that market. basic resources trading flat as minors digest the china numbers. let me take you to one part of the market we are watching closely. that is dutch ttf prices. another 4.4% higher today. we have been shifting higher in the last two weeks. the street jumped toward the end of august. this after union leaders warned that members may strike within days of the energy boost northwest shelf gas platforms in australia.
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this takes place as soon as september 2nd. woodside avoided bargaining with workers and left them no option. clearly this will have a ramification on the global gas market. our colleagues in sing more will be speaking with meg o'neill tomorrow morning at 5:30 cet. we will get more clues to what the strikers will do. let's turn to fresh data from germany. producer prices fell in july down 1% on the month and 6% on the year. it marks another sign price pressures are easing in germany thanks largely to lower energy prices. excluding energy costs, producer prices were up 2% on the year. germany is looking to attract semiconductors to the country and planning to invest 20 billion euro in the years.
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it needs pan-european cooperation. >> if you look at the funding, it looks like a good initiative. it is not a real european endeavor right now. my call would be to make it a european endeavor and that means that the member states have to really come together to make up the european strategy. the critical mass that we need means we have a reaching race on the global level competing. u.s., taiwan, china, south korea. it should be a european endeavor. for me, this includes europe as well. >> we wanted to look closely at
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germany. investors are watching the economy which is the only g7 country to be forecasted to contract this year over energy and investment exports. in the latest edition, "the economist" is questioning whether germany is once again, quote sick man of europe" nearly 24 years after the term was coined. our next guest is here with me and coined that phrase for germany. great to have you with us. i guess are they right? is germany the sick man of europe once again? what is your view? >> no, germany is unlikely to become the sick man of europe. 25 years ago, germany was heading down because it overburned with the cost of unification and rise of unemployment. as a result of that, it had public finances that were
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worsening until in 2003 where germany and france were the first major economies with the 3% massive deficit. now we see an economy that has problems. many of those are just reflection of the downturn in global manufacturing. we see an economy with regard employment and highly skilled labor and the healthy position of all major economies in the world. the sick man of europe does not fit germany right now. >> let's turn to one aspect of what you mentioned. the fiscal situation. many critics will point out that the fact that germany has in insisted on being fiscally prudent, the philosophy to their public finances has actually detracted from investment. it hasn't been healthy in the
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environment where interest rates were so low and germany could have taken advantage and bo borrowed more for the future. they didn't which was a missed opportunity. >> there was something to it, but largely, that is simply getting the problem wrong. during the period when germany was doing well and in response to reforms, i predicted in 201120 2011 for germany. during this time, consumption was expanding. why did that not lead to fiscal deficits because of the rise in unemployment? 32% since early 2006 due to labor market reforms. the real problem with public and private investment in germany is not lack of money, but not lack of money for some time. the real problem is that we have lengthy bureaucratic planning
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and this is where germany needs to do more. not promise money, but make sure that the money available can actually be spent on improving the infrastructure and becoming more digital and on private investment. >> let's dive into ininvest. -- investment in technology. overall, it is less than half of that investment in america and france. is germany at risk of falling behind in technology and what needs to be done? what reforms need to be put in place to allow them to at least keep pace if not exceed what is happening elsewhere? >> first of all, it is right. germany is no longer close to the top of the european growth lead because due to the session
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of the early reforms of 2003 and 2005, it had become complacent. as a result, germany has not taken the initiatives to become more digital. once again, this is a question of subsidy for information and technology. the key point is to shake up the bureaucracy to become faster and not overdo it with regulations. ove overdoing on data protections with some regulatory reform and procedures where germany could become a better place to invest. >> let me shift gears to the energy transition. an area where germany stands out to the european peers. germany is adamant it doesn't want nuclear to be part of the mix.
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joumanna did a deep dive on it earlier this year. you have uk and france turning to it and it has been a diversification for them. how does germany stand on the energy front as it looks to diversify away from russia in the coming years? >> germany, indeed, has made significant mistakes in the energy policy turning away from nuclear and also relying on russian gas. germany paid a price last winter. if you look at the prices the industry has been paying, they have gone up significantly. they are not at the top of the european union. what is a german problem is significant specialization on chemicals which now has to move production which is visible in germany more so than elsewhere. that is not the key problem.
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what with we have more at the moment is uncertainly about future energy policy on the business side. once this uncertainty is resolved, which is the government intervention and price nature of subsidies, this situation will ease again. earlier this year, we did see chemicals production was down a lot, but other parts of the manufacturing sector were split. a shift away to other sectors of the economy in what is a flexible economy is germany is possible if the government does not get in the way with too much regulation. all in all, it is a mix for germany, but not terribly bad. >> what about the germany links to china, but not just links,
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but dependence to china? german automakers are seeing competition from local chinese auto automakers. the second is structural to do with china undergoing an economic slowdown. that will have a knock-on effect as well. they are hit from both ways. competition and slowdown from china. >> yes, indeed there are problems for carmakers on the chinese market for germany. absolutely. the key feature of the german economy is not reliance on the export of cars or chemicals. the key feature is the myriad of hidden champions which are the small or medium-sized companies which are always looking for the next market niche. this economy, the word champion has the significant capacity to
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adjust as it has done in the future when textiles and steel went down and currency shot up. the issue with the cars with china is a temporary issue. it will be an adjustment and as long as the government doesn't get in the way of making that adjustment, the german economy can still continue to do fine. with the importance of china, yes, it matters, but now germany is exporting to poland as it is to china. the u.s. market for germany and market of the neighbors in europe are significantly more important as an export market for germany. yes, china is ahead, but it is not enough to say germany is going down for a long time. it requires some structure adjustment. >> all right. we will certainly watch how this plays out. fantastic to have you on the
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show. chief economist for our segment. coming up on the show, canada is the latest to declare an emergency. we will bring you the latest next. wake up, achievers. you're making the most of every hour of your life. except the hours that you're sleeping. so why do we leave so much untapped potential on the table? this is a next level bed, for a next level you. my circadian rhythm is kicking your circadian rhythms butt! it's not a competition. i know, but i'm still winning! so, it is a competition. save 50% on the sleep number limited edition smart bed. plus, free home delivery when you add a base. shop now only at sleep number. when we started our business
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welcome back to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. >> china seeks to stem a slump in the country's property sector, witbut defies expectati with the stimulus and cutting the one-year loan prime rate. natural gas prices surge as leaders worn of offshore gas platforms disruptions. german producer prices ease back in july for the first time in more than two and a half years dropping 6% on the year thanks to cheaper energy costs. u.s. trieasury yields jump with the 30-year treasury hitting a 12-year high as
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investors grow weary in jackson hole as they look to end the hiking cycle, but keep rates higher for longer. european equities off to a decent start. green across the board. the gains have been building throughout the morning. that positive momentum picking up pace. you have the ftse mib out in front up 1.3%. ftse 100 is lagging down -- excuse me up .40%. basic resources on the back of the china news overnight. chinese authorities not simulating the economy as much as expected with rates. we are also seeing sharp under performance in the uk house builders. let's get a check on the uk home builders. a couple of factors at play i
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want to highlight. look at the share price because it is notable. persimmon down 1.3%. you have crest nicholson down in early trade this morning. let's detail what's going on. another sign of the slowing property market with prices falling for four on consecutive months falling to an average of 3,000 pounds. crest nicholson is the big drag on the sector this morning. the company flagged worsening conditions as it cut the annual profit forecast. the ftse mib has seen lower levels in recent weeks. that profit warning with the data is weighing heavily.
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now the adyen shares are on the decline after being downgraded. the dutch payment company missed on the expectations on the sell off on stock which is now down 6%. tropical storm hilary made landfall in california. schools have been closed and flights grounded amid the first tropical storm in 84 years for california. president biden promised financial assistance to the area. president biden and the first lady are planning a trip to maui. the death toll has reached 114. biden will meet with workers and
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survivors. at least 30,000 households have been ordered to evacuate in the british columbia province in canada. evacuations are a matter of life and death. this is the worst wildfire season in canada on record. tanya joins us at the desk to introduce a special guest as we mark world humanitarian day. >> thank you for having me. we are seeing conflicts around the world. humanitarian aid is needed now more than ever. i'm joined by richard blewitt with the british red cross to talk about the pressing humanitarian crises around the world. richard, thank you for joining us on "street signs" today. >> thank you very much, tanya. >> richard, as you saw the reports from canada, of course, we have seen the devastation in
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hawaii and there are conflicts in ukraine and sudan. for you and the red cross, what are the most pressing humanitarian crises going on right at this moment? >> tanya, as you highlight, the challenge we have now is the scope of humanitarian need which is everywhere. last year, we responded with the disaster relief emergency funds to 122 emergency contacts in different countries around the world. we are worried about africa. we have 140 million people which are food insecure in africa. that is off the radar screen. particularly i was with a volunteer in the uk from cameroon, she was telling me of the devastating humanitarian problems in cameroon. this is a country off the radar. you have 500,000 refugees in
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cameroon. you have 350,000 displaced people. we have a large number of crises in different parts of the world. many going on for much longer than in the past. we are not ending conflicts. that places a huge pressure for people living in difficult circumstances. if you take ukraine, the crisis is continuing to deepen. yes, there is a big story around the wore and ckcar war and conf. the amount of displacement in ukraine and people moving in and out of ukraine is devastating just to stay safe. lastly, with hurricane hilary, the general trend is these a disasters are getting worse year on year because of the climatic impact. the intenttensity of the hurric
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is worse with the rainfall with the devastation for the affected communities. >> richard, what about attacks on humanitarian aid workers themselves which i believe has increased over the years? what are you hearing from colleagues on the ground in the areas of conflict? >> every year on world humanitarian day, we note the loss of our friends and colleagues who died around the world. 439 attacks with 115 deaths last year. this is a devastating story for every family and organization that's affected by the terrible losses. there's no downward rend. basically, humanitarian aid wor workers aren't the threat. 200,000 agencies were attacked last year. we have to really honor the bravery of the humanitarian
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colleagues. 90% of them come from the countries within which conflicts are happening. 10% are internationals working in the difficult conditions. >> richard, the u.n. secretary-general has called for more funding for agencies. do you feel the governments and public sector and private sector are doing enough to support agencies like yourself? >> there is a great amount of support around the world for the ukraine crisis. it is unprecedented and well with -- welcome. we are facing huge funding gaps and increased needs. refugees in bangladesh coming from myanmar, they are still stuck there and the funding is going down. the amount of resources to the african food crisis is
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inadequate. we credit the american government. they stood up and stepped in last year and tried to close a lot of the gap. the gap is just too big. we had five seasons of failed rains in somalia. 43,000 people died in somalia last year as a result of the food crisis which was very near called a famine. we are facing an unprecedented scale of chrisescrises. the wildfires in canada and the heatwaves and the hurricane in the united states. the climatic crisis is upon us. you have the cost of living crisis which is very bad in many countries around the world. actually, i was in somalia last september and the cost of buying rice was double from the year before. not only is the cost of living crisis a big problem in developed world, but a challenge
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in many countries which are fragile. >> richard, i would like your thoughts on the uk illegal migration act which is criticized by the british red cross and the u.n. what do you feel is the damage to human rights? >> i mean, as the red cross, one concern is 120,000 asylum cases pending. can you imagine for every single individual, the uncertainty and fear that leaves you with? we need to improve the asylum system works so people get a determination and get on with their lives. a vast number of cases turn out to be given asylum, but they wait years. i met an asylum seeker last year who waited ten years for his case to be signed off and for him to be given asylum in the uk. definitely we need -- and we
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fear the new legislation will just push more people underground and that creates more uncertainty and insecurity linked to trafficking of individuals. you know, the uk needs to be generous in its asylum policy. we look at how the countries in europe with the number of asylum seekers. we receive and accept a modest number. we are a generous country in the minds of most people in the uk. we urge the government to think about upholding and making sure they uphold the u.n. convention of refugees. the 51 convention and our legislation doesn't contradict that. >> richard, thank you so much for joining us here on "street signs." richard blewitt from the international british red cross. >> tanya, thank you for helping us mark world humanitarian day. an important day.
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>> thank you. coming up on the show, hard ache for the lioness as they suffer defeat in the hands of spain. we will discuss the world cup next. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i started my online store wolfgang puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast that's why i chose shipstation shipstation helps manage orders
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well, there was heartbreak for the lioness as they were defeated by spain in the women's world cup on sunday. spain clinched the first title with the 1-0 win. it was great match, but not the outcome, julianna. >> i was on the flight when the game was going on. the captain gave us the bad news in the air. it was pretty sad. >> that is not the way to hear it. they did not lose in penalty kicks. let's bring in our guest which is the analyst from adobe digital insight. you put the numbers through for
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the impact on the world cup. talk about the impact of the win streak up until yesterday has had. >> thank you. we saw a pretty strong lift on the 16th. a 710% spike in lioness merchandise. that was driven after the win against australia. for context, we had seen an increase about in the range of 338% when wite started the tournament in late july. when we got to the semifinal, we saw another spike and that was comparable to the semifinal this time last year. that's really promising to see the enthusiasm and we're agebleo see this with the adobe analytics with the site views.
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it started to subside as we got closer to the final and transactions started to move more in to store. >> how did the growth come pareo the men's? in terms of growth, is women's sport growing faster than men's port? -- sport? >> it is. it is because of what you mentioned with the base level and scale. the volume is large on the men's side through decades of promotion and endorsement. now the women's merchandise and especially for the tournament for the world cup we saw a lot of the acceleration driven as the enthusiasm built and a lot of support for the team. that really came through and showcased what the impact levels end up being when you lyou look
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the world cup and the women's team. >> vivek, the women's team was dominant, but competition has gotten better and this year, world cup has been the showcase of the increased competition. how does that influence marketing spend and merchandise with the fact that the competition is so much stronger? >> it is a great question. from our perspective, we see heavy investment both across marketing campaigns and in terms of the leagues. they are putting forward promotions to make the moment count because when you have demand surging as you have seen, you don't want to leave that demand on the table. you want to make sure you are there to capitalize on the interests and make sure you can ensure that when these different levels of scaling happens and teams win matches and they get
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into tournaments that you can ensure the sales merchandise will be there for new fans and it can really help drive demand at a time from the macro picture demand is slow and really we see the zeitgeist moments growing sggrowing. >> we see this of all kinds, but particularly with women's football, what does that impact merchandising sales? >> it really starts at those levels in terms of youth leagues and younger people getting into the sport regardless of boys or girls. the gender driving the focus around investment in the different leagues. as you start to see enthusiasm and fan base come out both with
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the sports across different leagues, then you start to see these desires to support and make sure that the merchandising is there and the supplies are there to ensure you can set up play for leagues for years to come and scale the mature leagues out. >> looking ahead, we have started thinking about the next big gaming event. england did win the euro last year. the next euro is in 2025. i wonder to what extent the success or growth of sales with this world cup will mimpact how companies think about marketing spend. what is the sense of how organizers are capitalizing on the momentum? >> they are taking stock of this year and they have the euro to compete and see the growth spike
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was 400%. when you go from 400% up to 700%, you have the acceleration happening. they can think about and predict the next time a tournament like this comes around. they can ensure they have the supply available to meet the moment. there is a quick reaction after a match. consumers are in buy mode. the screen with their devices in hands. they are ready to be part of the moment. it is very incumbent on the different types of agencies and brands to ensure that they can be there for the consumers and help drive up that growth and keep it on the right momentum. >> vivek, we will leave it there. thank you for joining us today on "street signs." i have to say speaking of the merchandise, i like the women's jacket. we probably didn't see it.
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pink and blue. >> it looks like you could wear it with your dress today. >> look out for joumanna. >> as long as it is england merchandise. >> it is nice you are supporting them. let's talk about what's to come this week. we are watching out for the u.s. earnings report with 12 s&p 500 set to post of. zoom reports today and lowe's and macy's tomorrow. nvidia will report on wednesday. we get numbers from kohl's and peloton. two more retail names close out the week on thursday with gap and nordstrom. that's not all. we are looking out for a slew of economic data. the richmond fed releases the mr manufacturing index. we have new home figures and flash pmi across europe and the
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u.s. all of this before the fed's jackson hole symposium. you can follow the coverage from wyoming on cnbc on thursday. >> so much for quiet august. >> seriously. >> a lot with china and european macro numbers and earnings season and jackson hole. that is the main event. >> nvidia. i'm looking forward to that number in terms of market action. >> they were huge in q1. they never have seen a similar guidance. >> that is it for the show. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. are you still struggling with your bra? it's time for you to try knix. makers of the world's comfiest wireless bras. for revolutionary support without underwires, and sizes up to a g-cup, find your new favorite bra today at knix.com
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global h5eadquarters. here is your "five@5." looking to bounce back at the open. another rough week for big tech with the biggest names in the market falling from the highs. in china, crisis of confidence as the latest round of support fails to impress investors. bracing for jay powell and jackson hole later this week. later, tropical storm hilary makes landfall out west. we have a live

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