piece of the pie. >> we'll see how that trickle plus into inflation, based on those kinds of wages. phil lebeau, thank you. and as we've been talking about, big week nvidia earnings coming up, not tomorrow, but the day after, and jackson hole at the end of the week. that's going to do it for "overtime." "fast money" starts now. it doesn't, indeed. jon, thank you. right now on "fast," mortgage rates hit their highest level since 2000. and the ten-year keeps climbing. but at the same time, growthy tech names like nvidia keep rocketing higher. plus, beijing bummer. china cuts a key interest rate again, as their slowdown and ru troubled real estate market get worse. and later, inside bitcoin's summer slump. a monday turnaround at tesla. and the not so beautiful options action at coty.

good evening, everyone, i'm tyler mathieson, this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site. and we start with two market moves you sort of wouldn't think should happen at the same time. let's start in the bond market. the ten-year treasury yield rising again today, hitting its highest level in almost 16 years. the 30-year yield touching highs not seen since 2011. and that is sending mortgage rates to their highest level since november of 2000. the average 30-year fixed hitting 7.48%. it was just 3% at the start of last year. yet, tech stocks, which typically struggle when rates are rising, they're jumping. they jumped today. the nasdaq rising for the first time in five sessions, rallying almost 2%. 1.56. high growth, high multiple names

like nvidia lead the charge today. so, how are these two seemingly opposing forces both finding life in this market? let's talk about it a little bit. let's bring in jim bianco, he is the bianco research president -- all righty, welcome to jim, as well. let's talk a little bit about these rising rates, and so far, a rising market at least today in the nasdaq. >> yeah, it's interesting. i think you spelled it out pretty well there, tyler. >> i did? i hope so. >> when the fed said they were going to battle inflation by raising interest rates, what got hit first? in anticipation of their acknowledgement, they kind of let things run too easy for too long, we saw high valuation tech stocks, we saw crypto, we saw a whole host of things start to sell off. and that's the thing that i think we all grew up with in this business with higher rates, and that should be applied to, you know, investment returns going forward and the valuations that are being applied to such. so, the reinflation we've seen

as rates have gone higher in 2023, at some point, something does have to give here, okay? like, so, to me, i think this really, a small shortage of names that are benefits from excitement around a new technology, we talked about that a lot here. as we get to wednesday's earnings, we might start to see it's as good as it gets for the next couple of quarters. and that's when investors might start to readjust. a lot of peers had disappointing results, high valuation name, you know, and it rallied a lot, but it's still well off its highs. my point is, we have to take some stock where some of these stocks, you know, have been and where they're trading now. tesla's another example. to make the move like it did today after it sold off from 300 to 215 on friday's close, it's not that impressive to me. >> julie, i don't mean to put worlds in dan's mouth, but what the hell, i do mean to put -- >> go for it. >> so, he makes the point here that maybe this, when we hear from nvidia, that there's a possibility that that may be the kind of high water mark for the

a.i. stocks, i guess you'd call them. >> i think that makes sense, right? nvidia's really ground zero for, you know, one of the very few companies that's actually able to see and recognize revenue from a.i. today. most of the software names that are kind of incorporating a.i. into their businesses, they don't even really have a very clear business model around it. so, you know, i think that makes sense that it's, you know, as the kind of pied piper that's lead this rally, that this would be the business that, you know, could mark the end of it. it's really hard to say. what i do think is important is kind of keeping in mind the balance of power between the u.s. and china, because invild ya is at the center of that battle, so, you know, i'm really looking forward to see how those results turn out. it's going to be a great understood case of just how high investor expectations are, because a lot is baked into this stock at this valuation. >> bonawyn, you know, i don't -- i don't mean to suggest a crash is coming, but it was back in

1987 when interest rates were rising and the market was rising. and at some point, something happened and bam, you had -- i'm not saying -- i'm not, you know i'm not saying, but rising rates and a rising market do not usually go together. >> yeah, i mean -- this market has kind of defied logic. to put it quite simply. the thing is, if you really look at risk assets, and i'm talking about everything. stocks, real estate, private equity, you go across the board. we have been in such a low rate environment for so long that the valuations that you're seeing are fueled by the point that dan made, valuations being dcf backed to t2%, 3%. mortgage rates now at 7%, right? >> yeah. >> you can't help but expect to see default rates. but until we see credit really start to turn, until we start to see liquidity really get si

siphoned out. what's different between '87 and now, i have to go back -- >> you were 8. >> more like 5. >> yeah. is that the liquidity on balance sheet. companies make so much more cash now. the free cash flow generation, whether it's a company setting itself up to be taken private or vice versa, i think that is a slight differences here. and then you have all the passive investing, all that liquidity that's in the market now, that's a slightly different dynamic from now and then, but i tend to agree, generally speaking, like, something's got to give, being that -- being that low rates have fueled asset valuations for the better part of the last -- >> before i go to guy, did i put words in your mouth appropriately there? >> yeah, of course. just, you know -- like, someone like you putting words in my mouth only makes me smarter, so, thank you, sir. >> so what do you think, guy? >> you mentioned '87. >> i mentioned it. >> hi, tyler.

>> hi. how are you? >> give you an '07, because in '07, this was the last time ten-year yields got to the levels we saw today. so, it's a 16-year high now. and this -- >> hard to believe it was 16 years ago. >> think about that. november of '07. this resteepening of the yield curve, and i don't want to be too wonky here and make people's eyes glaze over, might be too late for that, this is a bear resteepening. it's resteepening because the ten-year yields are going higher. that's not particularly good. and it's not just the u.s. global interest rates now have been going higher, as well. just look across a swath of countries and you'll see. china, yuan weakening right before our eyes. last time we saw it to this mag any tide was august of 2019. and don't discuss the weakness in the japanese yen as they continue to try to keep their bond market in line. which is not happening. all these factors put together. yes, the nasdaq had a great today. palo alto should have been up, given their margins and that quarter on friday.

nvidia's up, i think, because people feel we have to be in this name ahead of earnings becauseforbid we're not. that's just people chasing, in my opinion. so, let's wait until wednesday and see how this shakes out, but i think it's setting up for a bit of a fall. >> yeah, and the definition of a great quarter and great guidance, put your finger -- it's going to be great. there's no doubt about it. so, expectations -- ten analysts have been raising their price targets, raising estimates. if you think about where investors on the buy side, where the whisper is for this quarter and the balance of the year, and thinking out to 2024, it's really, really high. so, if you think about the reversal that this stock has had over the last few trading days, up 8 1/2%.5% today. it gained $85 billion in market cap today. >> gosh. >> on really nothing. and the options market is implying about a 10% move in either direction. the day after earnings. i just want to put some context

around this. intel, which used to be the behemoth in this space, has $137 billion market capitalization. amd has $170 billion market capitalization. >> nvidia -- >> a trillion one, and is expected to move $100 billion in either direction the day after reports. so, i can't put too fine a point on this. when i look at what happened today in the stock market, it literally was dragged up by two companies that are probably two of the most expensive and with the best enthusiasm in and around them, that's nvidia and tesla today. i didn't see a lot of other things acting particularly well. so, when you think of the -- we heard all about this broadening out of the rally, okay, into q-2 earnings, into july, well, now i see a renarrowing of it and given where rates are doing, just to kind of wrap this whole thing up together, that could make for a very, very nasty september in my opinion. >> yeah. interesting point. interesting point there. let -- now we're going to bring in jim bianco. now we're going to do it, he is the bianco research president. jim, welcome. you've been listening to the conversation.

we've been talking a lot about rising and high rates, highest since 2007, on the ten-year, highest since 2000 for mortgage rates. what's going on here? and talk to us about the dissonance between what's happening in stocks and has happened this year in stocks, you got unvid nvidia tripling s this year, tripling. and what's going on with rates. >> yeah, so, to start with rates, i think guy had it right. this is a bear steepener. long rates are rising faster than short rates. typically, when that happens, it's the market thinking the fed's behind the curve. and maybe this is what's happening this time, that even though they raised rates 500 basis points, we might not be behind this whole inflation thing. and as i like to say, it's not 8%, 10%, it's more like 3% or 3.5% inflation, and that's wholly unacceptable to the fed, and if they're not going to fight inflation by raising rates more than one more time, then nobody wants to own their long

buy. and you throw into that the japanese yields, japan is the largest foreign owner of treasuries. their yields are starting to rise for the first time in decades. and all of a sudden japanese investors are finding more attractive opportunities at home, as opposed to holding u.s. treasuries. and you've got this selloff going on. interestingly, if that analysis i just laid out is correct, what stops it? an aggressive fed. if jay powell comes out on friday, says, we're not done, maybe there's more than one more rate hike, you might then see the bond market start to rally. now, as far as stocks, they might not like that, they might not like that at all, if the fed says that they're going to be more aggressive, but the bond market would, and there's the rub, if these two markets are not going to find the same news, either both bullish or both bearish. >> i want to bear down on your point about japan, if i might. japanese yields are, what right now, they're -- obviously

positive, but they're still very, very low. do you think they're sufficiently high to cause japanese investors, as you point out rightly, are big holders of u.s. treasuries. are they sufficiently high really to stint the japanese from putting money into u.s. bonds? >> well, yeah, so, the ten-year yield in japan is around 60, 65 basis points right now. so, a little more than half a percent. but you have to keep in mind that japanese investors have to take a currency risk. if they own u.s. bonds, they ultimately need to convert them back into yen, and if they don't take -- if they take that currency risk, they risk losing money on a deappreciating currency. they're finding that with all the volatility and uncertainty in the yen, they would rather take 60, 65 basis points and not have to worry about the currency moving 3%, 4%, 5% against them, as opposed to taking 4.3% in the u.s. now, this is not happening in big numbers, but it's happening

around the edges, and if japanese interest rates continue higher, you're going to see more and more of it and markets are anticipatory and i think that's one of the things that's concerning them. >> let's cut to the chase. what do you think powell says on friday? what do you think the fed does when they meet this month? >> i think he's going to say nothing on friday. i actually thought that he would actually skip this meeting, but he's obviously not. he hasn't yet. and i think because there's still -- there's still in flux. they talk about the end of the cycle, but the market's not acting like they should be at the end of the cycle. the long bond is not. and so, i don't know where his head is right now. we'll have to see. but i guess i would refredphrasd i wouldn't be surprised if he says a kwhowhole lot of nothing friday. >> jim, thank you. let's trade this, guy. what do you think? >> bond market is everything. again, it gets inside baseball, but it's important to point out

that, again, what's going on in japan can't be underestimated. their currency is weakening as the yields are rising. that's not -- that's what we call, dan, a what? >> witch's brew. >> witch's brew. >> we talk about that from time to time. the yuan continues to weaken. the chinese are telling their banks to try to support the yuan. it's not working. that's unraveling. and so, that coupled with this resteepening of the yield curve here, rates going higher, that is -- i get it, today, the nasdaq went up, fantastic. but that is not a bull ush rel bull ush recipe for stocks. >> this is cold brew right here. you know who -- >> we do, it's a team. >> the gentleman i'm talking to. >> i want to make one quick point here -- in the last 10, 15 years there were two bug-a-boos in valuations as it relates to my per view here, it's been rising interest rates and china growth. and we have both of them here in spades right now. and it seems kind of weird that we still have a vix under 20, we haven't had a 10% peak to trough

decline. so, again, i feel like at some point, like, this is all going to kind of mash up together at some point, we're going to have a little fearful trading period. i don't think that, like, pull-back that we had over the last few weeks is that yet. >> julie, let me get a quick thought from you. dan just said, just tied it up very nicely there, choppy time, maybe a bad september coming, worrisome, i don't know, what was the word -- >> something like that. >> what do you think, julie? >> yeah, no, i agree. it's not a great setup, if you think about september, right? and it does feel like there's so much complacency. and complacency isn't just in the equity market. it's in the bond market, too. if you look at threads, they are quite narrow, compared to 2019, where spreads, you know on investment grade were 95 basis points, we're in the 60s. things were looking way worse back then. way worse right now than they were back then, you know? so, i just don't think everyone's really prepared for that. >> well, september may have been the best earth, wind and fire song ever, but it may not be the

best for the market, right? >> look at you. >> look at that. >> you probably saw -- >> musical references that go around the table, right? usually the who and -- >> zeppelin. >> zeppelin. >> we'll take a little earth, wind and fire. >> we could do a little green day, "wake me up when september ends." >> that's a good one. that's a good one. all right, we have news alert on a hotly anticipated arm ipo. deirdre bosa has been digging into the company's filing. hi, death. . >> yeah, and i've been following the conversation. they're going to test the market waters with an ipo with arm. it would be the biggest offering of the year, and could pave the way for over ipos to follow like instacart, which has been watching very closely. the company intends to trade on the nasdaq under ticker name arm, that f-1 filed not long ago. as for financials, revenue of $2.7 billion in its last fiscal year. that's a decline from the previous year.

lower profitability, as well, in terms of net income year over year. among the risk factors, competition from free open source technologies like risc-v. its dependence on revenue from china, which it doesn't have control over. and its softbank ownership who interests may not coincide with their own interests or the interest of shareholders. now, the prospectus pitches arm as the foundation of the semiconductor industry. demand in its major end-markets, however, like smartphones, has been weakening, so, a lot of this and a lot of its valuation will depend on softbank's ability to make the case that this is an a.i. company. and it plays in this sphere. now, it needs to make that case to be valued in that reported range between $60 billion and $70 billion. latest transaction. $64 billion. it was a private transaction. others on wall street valuing it much lower, like a bernstein,

saying $40 billion. so, this could really land anywhere, and a lot of it is going to depend on how it factors into that a.i. hype cycle, and how the markets are feeling, like valuing tech companies. >> d, did you say that arm is going to trade under the ticker symbol a.r.m.? >> yep. >> who thought that up? >> it was -- >> hey, they dropped the h, okay, tyler. i don't know, call that creativity? >> thank you, d. bonawyn? where's the valuation? i mean, 40 to 60 -- >> it's not 70. it's probably 40 to 50. i mean, you look at vc, all that stuff's gotten knocked down. reminiscent of cloud and fin tech, all this stuff that was hyped and came back down to earth. >> interesting. arm will trade under the ticker symbol arm. >> i think d-bo is about to get busier here. instacart -- people want to get stuff out the door a little bit here. i'll say this. qualcomm was a unmitigated disaster when they reported. that stock is unchanged on the

year versus an smh, semiconductor etf up 45% on the year. that's their end market, 95% of the chips are licensed from arm. i just can't imagine that's going to come into, you know, a market that is -- this is not an a.i. story right now. >> real quick, $2.5 billion in rev revenues, is this company. their talking about anywhere from 60 to 80 the makes no sense. >> wait -- >> $50 billion market cap -- >> it's still crazy expensive. so, i think one of the reasons nvidia rallied the way it did today, on top of people front running earnings, because of this, and people want to get involved. that's another way to get involved. >> interesting. all right, we're going to take a quick break. coming up, zoom zooming higher. the stock jumping after reporting results in the last hour. the numbers ous out of that qua coming up. plus, bitcoin hovering near the $26,000 market.

will the free fall continue? we'll debate that. that's when "fast money" returns. what if buildings could tell you how they could be more efficient? i'm listening. well, with ibm, you can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art.

enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪ ♪ ("un monde pliable" by jeongpill song) ♪ ( ♪ ♪ ) (camera shutters) ( ♪ ♪ ) (camera shutters) ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ ) ( ♪ ♪ )

welcome back to "fast money," everybody. we've got an earnings alert on zoom video. shares higher after reporting a beat on the top and bottom lines, though off their afterhours highs. pippa stevens has the details. >> the guidance is also fueling optimism in the stock, with q-3 and full-year eps guide coming in ahead of expectations. the call kicking off just a moment ago, where the a.i. opportunity was basically the first thing mentioned, with the ceo noting a, quote, aggressive road map aimed at using a.i. to help users work smarter. with the goal of rolling out refly 90 new features per quarter, including the just launched sked yufling tool. elsewhere, the company said its enterprise revenue during the second quarter rose 10.2% year over year, with enterprise customers up 6.9% compared to last year. operating cash flow increased 30% year of year with zoom also

saying its monthly churn rate decreased to 3.2%, down, tyler, from 3.6%. back to you. >> all right, pippa, thank you very much. guy, let's trade this one. what do you think? >> this is the quarter where they've righted the ship. enterprise customers up 7% year over year. that's a good thing. double beat, as pippa just said. it's fine. i don't think valuation is ridiculous in this name. it's flat lined effectively since august last year, traded between 65 and 78. i don't think, now given what they just said, given the guidance, being long the stock, i don't think you can hurt being long the stock. i think you can trade it from the long side here. >> julie, have any thoughts on zoom? >> yeah, i think amazing result in terms of the cash flow. the free cash flow nearly $300 million on $1.1 billion in revenue. and i think that is what investors are really looking for right now. they've all been kind of singed by these non-earning businesses, so, demonstrating not that you can do super highly adjusted nongap whatever the -- but real

cash flow is meaningful. >> bonawyn? >> yeah, i tend to agree. follow the cash. also, what is it, 30% operating margins, if i remember correctly, i think that's impressive. the thing is, this thing just got way away from itself in the middle of covid. >> yeah. >> and it's just now back to where it probably rightfully belongs, to guy's point. forward price to earnings is 16, 17. i think you are pretty comfortable owning it there. i wouldn't be short this thing. >> you have a thought? >> yeah, to bonawyn's point, it was investors who got the thing way away from itself, you know what i'm saying? it wasn't the company. they had a product, it was deemed to be best in breed. >> it's a great utility. >> so, i think that enterprise number, the churn, that's all really important, and i think you have to remember that heading into the pandemic, this company was already profitable, so, they remain profitable. to me, i think this thing is okay here. >> all right, there's a lot more "fast" to come and here's what's coming up next.

look out below. tokens are tanking. crypto bulls feeling the pain. as bitcoin's drop continues. will this trade find a floor, or is the slide just starting? plus, a surprise rate cut out of china, as the growth in the country struggles to rebound. but the slowdown could mean for your money ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. meet gold bond healing. a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins, you can pay more but you can't get more. gold bond. champion your skin.

dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones

welcome back to "fast money." down goes bitcoin. double-digit losses on the week, putting the crypto -- putting the cry in crypto-currency.

bitcoin falling below the 26,000 mark at today's lows. what's next? bonawyn? >> i don't think it's just about today's move. if you think back to just late july, early august, i feel like this thing was at 29 1/2, 30,000, that move down and below 26,000 to me is pretty meaningful. and i don't know if it's just it selling off in tandem with nasdaq or perhaps investors perception around risk assets, but it jutted out to me. and the fact you're starting to see that breakdown there and particularly on all the other alt coin and not seeing that pop in vix, that disconnect is important to me. >> any thoughts on bitcoin, julie? >> typically, not. you have anything from the founder of a coin getting hacked, phishing attempts, its just a mess over there. equities are plenty volatile.

>> julie is honest there, she said no, typically, no. >> she tells no lies. >> tells the truth. nothing to say, nothing to say. i got it. all right, coming up, more rate cuts coming out of china, as the country's economic slowdown drags on. what it could mean for your money, next. plus, cash for clunkers could be an understatement. surging car payments are costing drivers big. the sticker shock you should expect on the lot. "fast money" is back in two. to duckduckgo on all your device

duckduckgo comes with a built in engine like google, but it's pri and doesn't spy on your searches and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooki and creepy ads that follow you a from google and other companies. and there's no catch. it's free. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you around showing the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today.

all right, everybody, welcome back to "fast money." stocks closing mixed to kick off the week as investors wait for earnings from nvidia. the tech heavy nasdaq rallying more than 1.5%. tesla shares trying to end a recent pull-back, up more than 7%. that's the best day for that stock since march. and it is up 88% on the year. and shares of sentinal one. reports say they are exploring a sale. that will do it to you. that bringing the stock into positive territory for the year, up 16% on the day. meantime, chinese stocks

dropping, after the country's central bank cut its one-year benchmark rate by ten basis points. not much of a cut, but a lot more modest than expected, raising red flags that the country isn't doing enough to curb the effects of an economic slowdown. our eunice yoon here with more. >> reporter: tyler, the central bank trimmed the peg for most household and corporate loans by a smaller than expected ten basis points and didn't touch the reference rate for mortgages. that left many investors puzzled about beijing's plan to manage the property crisis. real estate has powered a decades-long boom in china, accounting for 25% of gdp. it's a massive store of wealth for the middle class, making up 70% of household wealth, so, decline in real estate hits growth directly when property slows and the knock on wealth effects makes people feel poorer so they don't spend. and it's a big deal for the financial sector, property accounts for 40% of collateral

held by banks, according to citi. from the leadership perspective, they may see their policy options limited, because of the runup of debt over president xi jinping's time in office. china's debt to gdp ratio soared from 195% to 297%. that's led many to wonder if china's headed into a new era of slower growth. ty? >> all right, eunice, thank you very much. let's trade this one. julie, what do you think on china? >> you know, i think it's interesting, right, because so much of, you know, the moves over the last, let's say ten years, have been to try to drive stronger consumer demand at home. that really needs to be kind of the next leg in order for the chinese economy to really reach full potential. and that's just been a real struggle. and so, i think it's surprising when you see 70% of the wealth is held in houses, that there isn't more done to support the mortgage environment. i think the problem xi has right now is that it basically, if he does, you know, take more

drastic action, it's kind of admitting the mistakes that he's made in the paes. and that seems to be a real challenge for him. >> yeah, that's a really interesting point. we're going to take that up with your next guest in just a moment. they don't admit mistakes over there, you know? certainly not the leadership. >> what mistakes? >> what mistakes. yeah. >> i mean, here, too. >> they don't have too many challenges to it. some of the reporting we saw last week with the investment firm, where they had some gates up about, you know -- there was, like, 16 people outside. you know what i mean? they were trying to make noise about it. ultimately, listen -- if you've been a china bear, you've been yelling about the same stuff for 15 years or so, and the kind of -- just kept on marching on. and wasn't really until they got very turned around with the draconian measures related to covid that things really have gone haywire. and so, maybe it is the time that this debt bomb, this commercial real estate bomb, the reliance that so many of the consumers have on their own residences and, you know, their investable cap tam. >> so much of their wealth is tied up there. >> maybe this is it.

and so, i guess i go back to what we said when we were opening the show. i just don't know how, if all this is going to happen in china, there's not major revesh rations in the west. again, it's not being priced into our equity markets in the moment. maybe it is into our bond market right now. >> what builders do is build. and this is the perfect example of overbuilding, right? >> yeah. >> exactly what's going on. for more, let's bring in dennis, who advises companies doing business in china. frequent visitor there. dennis, welcome. good to have you on "fast." >> thank you, tyler. >> very good. let's talk about the interest rate cut, as most of the rest of the world's interest rates are going higher th erhigher, they . >> it was nothing, in a relative terms. i think they were fooling themselves if they thought it would have any impact either in china or the markets here. >> let's talk about the predilection for the government leadership to play sort of shell

games. look at this hand, because this hand is not such a pretty hand. and -- does that fact raise the risk that china in trying to distraction its own population from economic dislocations, high unemployment, particularly among the young, a cracking property sector, as they try and distract their people from those things, that they might be prone to do more aggressive things in foreign policy or against taiwan? >> tyler, they're like magicians. look at my right hand, but it's in my left hand. i am concerned that you're going to see very soon increased military actions against taiwan, because that's the most -- the easiest thing for the chinese to do. they have to distract their people, because the one thing about the chinese people are, they're really smart. with 70% of their assets in real estate, with this going on, i don't think there's much that the chinese, xi jinping can do

in the short run. look for them to do something in taiwan, and it will distract everybody's attention. absolutely. >> and to pick up on julie's initial point there, xi does not like, and the chinese leadership, they don't like to admit mistakes, and in this case, that would be that in the extreme. >> i'm working on a book now, and part of the book is the most powerful man in the world, and that is xi jinping. he has no opposition from the military, or from the ccp. and what he is doing right now is saying, i'm right. look at -- it took him two years to reverse the policy he had on covid. in december, he did. obviously, we're seeing the effects now. but xi jinping is not very good at admitting mistakes. >> not very good at admitting mistakes, and how long do you think it will be before the chinese economy gets back on track? >> i don't see anything significant changing for the next 12 months. >> so -- at least 12 months here. any thoughts here, guys?

>> my concern all along, i'm surprised -- i'm not wishing for it, my concern all along has been china was going to raise the level of aggression against taiwan. and that would be -- and this is not my worlds, other people have said this, catastrophic for equity markets, and, you know, they're building field hospitals, they're doing medical exercises, they're not doing that just for their health, they're doing it because they're clearly planning something, in my opinion. and i'm with dennis on this one. i think something's going to happen, as their economy gets worse, it's more likely that the hostilities are raised. >> go ahead, bonawyn. >> i think young people tend to perhaps buck the trend, or -- run countertrend. 20% unemployment rate amongst people 25 or younger, to me, might say that the buck has to stop somewhere. not only does that prevent you from being able to grow consumption, but i just wouldn't be surprised if there's some push-back against the status quo, when you have a whole wave of new people that are supposed

to enter the consumption and enter the work force, that essentially are disenfranchised. i don't understand how people are going to sit and stand with that. >> what do you think of that, dennis? unchallenged leader, and bonawyn is kind of making the case that maybe he might not be? >> you remember back in december -- in october when there was a problem with the apple telephones being produced, and there was a problem with the labor unions? you, for the first time in years, had significant numbers of people, chinese, demonstrating in the streets, and some of them were even saying things against xi jinping that he didn't like. i think his point is very good, and i agree. the younger people, under 25, it's actually 21% that are unemployed now. if that continues, that's a really bad thing for xi jinping, because the one thing the chinese communist party wants, is control over its people. it does not want social unrest.

this could lead to that. >> yeah, destabilization of the regime, they fear, i'm sure. dennis, great to see you. >> thank you. >> anything, any trades we want to jump on here at all? on china? >> listen, we talked about this a lot. when you think about u.s. multinationals and their reliance on this, you know, emerging middle class and the size, and the like here, i mean, they also rely on it from a manufacturing standpoint, access to rare earth materials to make stuff that goes into electric batteries and tech products. so, this is not something that, i mean, the u.s. can decouple from. and you think about all of the the receive fort efforts that c made to diversify, i think that's going to accelerate. and when you think about this youth issue they have, no one's really explained to me -- they have this crazy demographic issue, where they don't have enough young people, but they have 20%, 1 in 5 of them are out of work. i don't know how that works, either. so, that will only get woers, if we accelerate, you know, if

there is some sort of geopolitical event. and you have to go back to the precedent that was set with russia's invasion of ukraine and what multinationals did in russia. are they going to do the same thing in china? to me, this is kind of unavoidable. we are attached at the hip at this one and there will be some volatility on our markets, as, you know, in the equity markets because of this if something does happen. >> if you get something that happens in that part of the world, it is going to be a heck of a lot harder, it would seem to me, for the u.s. to stay at arm's length from it. >> so, it's -- look at the lens we look at through stocks and how things in companies, so, forget about the geopolitical aspect of it, what our administration does or doesn't do. as dan just said, apple, starbucks, mcdonald's, they all set the precedent with russia/ukraine. if they were to do nothing if china were to invade, i think the market would rage against them, and if they were to pull themselves out of there, it would be detrimental to their earnings. so, either way, if something

were to happen there, it's bad for multinationals. >> you heard dennis saying apple telephones, i don't remember the last time i heard the word telephone. >> come to my house. you have a telephone? >> i do. >> the dial ones, when you do the -- >> you do that, around? >> heavy, too. >> yeah. i like the princess phones. remember those? >> if nothing else, it just makes it more challenging for this eem performance. and we've really seen that stock trade off in the last, i don't know, two, three weeks. if you are going to continue to stick with the eem trade, there are aspects that do have legs, you might want to pair a trade like that like a short fxi. >> and hang seng is down -- >> double digits, 10%, 12%. >> i think so. okay, coming up, sticker shock. the soaring cost of a car is putting owning a set of wheels out of reach for some buyers. what's behind the rise? and is there any relief in sight? that story is next. and later, fading beauty. shares of the makeup brand coty

having a tough couple of months. what can investors expect out of their earnings report tomorrow? that trade and more ahead on "fast." power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley.

♪♪ it's time to bring balance to business travel. and discover the equilibrium that works for you. at national, you're in control. skip the counter, choose any car in the aisle... and manage your rental right from the app. so you can mix work... with leisure. or leisure... with work. giving you the control to find the perfect balance. go national. go like a pro. welcome back to "fast

money," everybody. you're looking at the mitsubishi mirage hatchback. the only car on the market today that you can buy new for less than $20,000. how about that? even the average used car in the u.s. is listed at about $27,000, with average interest rates near 14%, according to cox you a motive. our phil lebeau has a closer look inside those skyrocketing prices, what rates have to do with it all and what it means for the consumer and the automakers. hey, phil. >> hey, tyler. the cost of automobiles has been rising at an incredible pace over the last decade. in fact, if you take a look at the average transaction price, now, that's the price you or i pay when we're getting a vehicle after you have the inventive that are put in, et cetera, it hit the all-time high back in december. currently, it's at $48,334. in terms of how people are financing this, that's what we're noticing in terms of the

changes for our pocketbooks. the average amount financed, the average loan is almost $41,000, we're stretching out the terms longer, the average loan, now almost 70 months. and the average monthly payment, well over $700 now. you'd think this might be hurting the business for the auto dealers -- you would be wrong. look at shares of auto nation, group one, penske. they've had a nice year. remember, they get about half of their profits from the backside of the business, where they're doing repair work, the warranty work, that's where they make the bulk of their profits. not selling new vehicles. as for the established automakers, and we're just looking at the big three, ford, gm, and stellantis, it doesn't matter they are posting record profits in north america. all of them have been raising their profit expectations for the year. these stocks really haven't done anything, and that's because two things, tyler. one, the possibility of a uaw strike in mid-september, and

two, everybody is focused on, when will they make the transition to electric vehicles, can they make the transition, and be as profitable, or at least be competitive with tesla? those are the two things that are weighing on those stocks. >> let me ask you a quick question, phil. two years ago, a lot of dealers were selling new cars at well above the sticker price, because it was -- they couldn't get supplies. the inventory was down. is that still happening? >> it's still down. it's about half of what it was in 2019, bfrpefore the uaw stri four years ago. it's about 36 days supply for the entire industry. as for the big three, they've known this strike possibility was looming, so, they have been ramping up production as much as possible, but the supply chain, the chip supply, was really limited over the last couple of years, so, they've been able to increase their inventory, tyler, but not to the degree that they have previous times.

>> are they still selling above sticker? >> it depends on the model. there are many models that are still selling above. i know some of dealers who are saying, look, if i'm selling a pickup truck right now, a traditional internal combustion engine, i'm selling it above sticker in many cases. not all the time, but in many cases. it's not like it was two years, a year ago, but it is, you know, it's hard to get a deal out there. >> it was really a paradigm shift, if you were in the market at that time. we logs a car in a flood and had to go and there was nothing available. and you had to pay above the list price. phil lebeau, thank you. let's trade it. dan? what do you think? >> yeah, it's a tough one. we talk about gm and ford. the moves that those stocks have made just over the last year, they've been very aggressive trading vehicles, if you will. and they've been, you know -- they seem uninvestable. when i say that, i want to be really careful. like, the long-term, you know, they have to get to electric vehicles, they're competing with some big incumbents, tesla being

one of them, they are losing billions of dollars to get there. so, at the height, just a few months ago, people were really excited about their ability to get there. now, they're less so. ford, $10.50, it looks cheap down there, but again, maybe a value trap. so, to me, i don't think they are that enticing, unless you want to trade them from those levels. >> ford seems to be in a range, never breaks out. gm, the same degree. all right, coming up, one options trader's making a big bearish bet on beauty brand coty, ahead of hearnings tomorrow. should investors expect an ugly report? the lipstick end kay tcade or t that one is next. neighbors' nf. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is? myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. (hero fan) this plan is amazing! (josh allen) another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. (fan #1) that was josh allen. (fan #2) mmhm.

(vo) for a limited time get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. a $449 value. plus, get a free samsung galaxy z flip5. only on verizon. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com. this is dr. arnold t. petsworth, he's the owner of petsworth vetworld. business was steady, but then an influx of new four-legged friends changed everything. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers flexible spending limits that adapt with his business.

he used his card to furnish a new exam room, and everyone was happy. built for dr. petsworth business. built for your business. amex business. nice footwork. built for your business. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. bridgett is here.

she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. welcome back to "fast money." shares of the beauty retailer coty falling 3% ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report. the stock up 30% on the year. but options traders are betting things could be about to get very ugly for this name. mike khouw has the action. what do you say, mike? >> hey, the options market traded more than 14 times the average daily volume today. puts outpacing calls by more than five to one. options market implying a move of 10%. one trader is betting it could be bigger than that, and much further lower.

we saw over 14,700 of the november 9 puts trade for 31 cents. the buyer betting that the stock would fall 20% or more over the course of the next three months. >> interesting. julie, quick comment from you? >> yeah, beauty is usually a pretty good category, but they really haven't been able to keep up and stay fresh. i understand the weakness. >> all right, mike, thank you. and for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show, that is friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern. i'll be here, hope you will be, too. up next, final trades. you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise

with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠. businesses need 5g solutions today. that's why they choose t-mobile for business. mlb partners with t-mobile to

not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. aaa relies on t-mobile's network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. and we're helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business.

oh, we're going to go fast here. time for the final trade. let's go around the horn. julie, you go first. >> if you want you a motive, but you want quality, copart is probably the best way to do that. >> all right, nobonawyn? >> fxi, wait on it. >> dan? >> i think zoom's okay right now. >> zoom. >> you are a stud, tyler. housekeeping. >> yes. >> back in ec.

stephanie, who does a crack job, it's her birthday today. happy birthday. you haven't seen courtney. you know why? she and her husband had a baby on friday. gianna congratulations. >> welcome. >> visteon. vc. >> thank you for watching "fast money." you know what's next. my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a market somewhere. i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey! i'm jim cramer. friends, i'm to try to make a little bit of money. my job is not just to entertain, but educate and teach you. call me, 1-800-743-kramer. you never want to be too liberal about saying, the market