tv Street Signs CNBC August 22, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT
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that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are the headlines. >> ubisoft announces it will sell the non-european streaming rights to get the deal past regulators. the countdown is on. a.r.m. is setting the stage for the nasdaq listing which would
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be the largest since alibaba. and a global rally taking on the positivity from the markets in the u.s. south africa welcomes leaders of the bric nations as they look to expand the leadership to the west and g7. welcome to "street signs." let's get to the top story. microsoft and activision struck a deal to acquire the games maker after the regulator confirmed the blocking of the original proposal for the call of duty developer. it opened a fresh investigation of the restructured deal and it can be completed by the october
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deadline. there is a look at ubisoft shares up 6% on the news. here is where we stand right now. the listing of microsoft for frankfurt with little change. let's bring in arjun with the major news from microsoft. >> the uk regulator initially blocked the deal on the competition concerns saying this could harm the competition in the cloud gaming market. microsoft could take call of duty and an mmake it exclusive. they are willing to consider a new deal. they have the new deal. microsoft will transfer the streaming rights for the pc games and console games released over the next 15 years to ubisoft.
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they can commercialize the games and license out to other gaming systems. microsoft benefits because ubisoft gets a one-off payment. it may pay microsoft on how often they are streamed and used. the cma says this is not a green light for the deal and the deal has until the october 18th deadline to be agreed. what microsoft is doing is coming up with the most onerous concessions to any regulator so far. it has to because the cma initially rejected some of the microsoft original concessions and proposals. microsoft has to come back with something bigger and better. that's what's on the table. they are speaking to the cma and they say they understand the issues with the competition. we would withlike to hand over
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to a third party. >> what is the issue for ubisoft? it was a name thrown into the mix today. no one was expecting microsoft to come out with the licensing deal for ubisoft. they come out with their own game. they are adding a new portfolio on the existing portfolio. >> it could be a big deal for ubisoft. >> it could be huge for ubisoft. >> overnight, it has a massive portfolio. >> the ability to license out to different gaming providers as well and cloud gamers which gives that services revenue as well. also ubisoft has its own portfolio. the anssassin's creedcense out others if cloud gaming takes off. >> it looks like the investors
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are certainly taking that nod with ubisoft shares trading firmly this morning. let's welcome senior researcher at counter point research. akshara, thank you for being with us. the first question is do you think the concessions are enough to get the deal over the line? >> i think yes because if you see the major contention of he hesistance to pass with regulators, it is not in favor the cloud gaming. microsoft putting out the license to ubisoft for the next 15 years gives access to cloud gaming to people. i think that is the crux of the issue with the regulators which were hesitant on giving the green light to the deal. >> akshara, what does it mean for the cloud gaming platform?
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this is interesting because ubisoft could sell the games back to microsoft through licensing deal if we are reading this correctly. does this reduce the appeal of microsoft's own cloud streaming platform in the future? >> i think so firstly the agreement is a one-off payment and then based on different models that microsoft proposed for ubisoft. it is a one-time payoff model or based on consumption. that is yet to be clearly defined. what i feel is it is more about the cloud gaming and it gives access to the people who are non- non-vendors. the consumer gets a choice, but it is nowhere working on microsoft's xbox. there are people in the world
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who wit who want to play games on xbox over other cloud platforms. it is all about the expansion of cloud gaming which benefits microsoft and other players . it is a win-win situation for microsoft and everyone. >> i wonder if the economics of the deal with microsoft and ubisoft will ever come to life. that will be interesting as well. interesting to see what cuts microsoft will get from the licensing activity. i do wander to tag on to what arjun asked you there. why is microsoft so intent on pursuing activision-blizzard and even willing to outsource the crown jewels to ubisoft? >> i think there are a lot of
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factors. it is all about building the ecosystem. if the gaming ecosystem, it had always been concentrated to one or two players and the other players did not have access. also giving it access to the games which crossed different price points. there are so many segments in the world who can't afford an xbox or playstation. there are people who have just the basics and they can get a subscription of xbox plus or ubisoft plus on the mobile phones and play on the phones and they don't have to get the equipment. i think for microsoft, it is about building that ecosystem first which has the larger volumes of people actually gaming and making first-time gamers who don't need the specific equipment. microsoft is taking the issue of building the ecosystem which is global and across every price
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range to consumers. the best way to do it is bring on the access to other partners with the cloud gaming platforms not on windows. it will be the ecosystem of windows and not on windows or nintendo switch and other systems. that is giving access to games and building the ecosystem of gamers. >> akshara, thank you. senior research analyst. arjun has been busy all morning writing on the deal and coming on the program. you ccan check out his piece on cnbc.com. and a.r.m. has officially list ed on nasdaq. this is another step to be the
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big big big biggests offerering since rivian. this indicates a $64 billion valuation for the firm. double the 2016 acquisition price. arjun is still with us. i think that $64 billion number is interesting as well because last week on the show, we were talking about the fact that softbank bought out the equity stake from the investors. many of them come from the middle east. that has given them an instant boon because they made inv investments on the losses. what is the $64 billion valuation do on the nasdaq? >> we saw it somewhere in the region of $60 billion to $80 billion. it is more than double what with softbank paid for the company.
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the question here is how is that valuation worked out in the environment? if you look at a.r.m. currently, the revenues fell in the quarter year over year. a slowing smartphone market. that is the bulk of the revenue for the smartphone chips. it hasn't pivoted into the new areas it has been speaking about for the last few years. there are questions about how quickly this company can grow. the valuation, i believe, is underpinned by one thing. how well it convinces investors this is an a.i. play. that is going to underscore the valuation. if they say they have the right business and the technology to play in the a.i. space, that is key. the importance of a.r.m. and what it does. it creates the blueprints on other chip designers base their
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chips. 70% of the population uses an a.r.m.-based product. 90% of products include a chip. the question is how well can it transition into new areas? data centers and does it have the chip architecture to support that? a.r.m. says the central processing units are designed to carry the workload for a.i. learning and machine learning as well. that is going to be key to whether it is able to command and sustain and importantly that high valuation. >> assuper clear. how do investors feel about a.r.m.'s overexposure to china? they have 25% of the revenue from the chinese market. >> like a lot of chip companies, it is geopolitical risk. a.r.m. warned about that when
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they talked about in the filing the growing tension between the u.s. and china on particularly the semiconductor front and risk of increased fragmentation in the world. they said there is a chance that the chip architecture we make is not fit for china. it is not allowed in china and china might look for a different type of architecture. some home grown technology. that is a geopolitical risk. in the world ofsemiconductors, the u.s. is trying to look for others to cut off the technology. it has done so thus far. it is technology which is required to step up the domestic industry. that is a risk that a.r.m. gets blocked from china and the technology cannot make its way to china. that is a big overhang for the company. >> arjun, thank you so much. >> a lot going on. >> thank you so much.
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speaking of tech, you can get in touch with joumanna and myself on x. you can get involved @cnbcjou. coming up, the ten-year treasury yield hits a 16-year e ine optyconcerns growing over thchesprer sector. we'll have more coming up next. you're making the most of every hour of your life. except the hours that you're sleeping. so why do we leave so much untapped potential on the table? this is a next level bed, for a next level you. my circadian rhythm is kicking your circadian rhythms butt! it's not a competition. i know, but i'm still winning! so, it is a competition. save 50% on the sleep number® limited edition smart bed. plus, 60-month financing on all smart beds. shop now only at sleep number®. when we started selling my health products online
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welcome back to "street signs." let's check in on markets. investors have been watching the mov move in yields over the last 24 hours. the 10-year treasury getting to levels not seen in 16 years. this is having an effect on fixed income markets globeally. we saw in terms of what we are watching out for as we have been talking about this week, jackson hole is key. we will get further signals from some of the central bankers of the direction of travel from interest rates here. that should impact yields and where they are headed.
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that is a focus for the markets and in addition to the data from china. we have a positive hand over from asia pacific and japan. equities trading in the green overnight. that means the stoxx 600 today which is trading in positive territory. up .8% in the early hour of trading. as for european markets, all of the boards are trading in the green. dax and cac 40 up 1%. you have been speaking about ubisoft which is at the top of the stoxx 600. that stock up 6% after the news of the licensing deal with microsoft. over into the uk, the ftse 100 is up .20%. we are seeing a bit of a bounce back in basic resources as we see recovery from china. in terms of sectors, technology is doing well. up 2%.
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again, this is drawing on from the price action we had on wall street yesterday. solid session for nasdaq. bounce back for nvidia. nvidia earnings ctomorrow. nvidia earnings will set the tone on wednesday. technology has had a good couple of days. real estate sector seeing a rebound today up 1.1% despite the upward move in yields. basic resources, as i mentioned, with a bounce. the underperformer is oil and gas. spot is weighed down on news that we could be getting more supply out of iraq. that is something to watch out for in energy. let's go back and talk about what is happening to yields. this is the picture today. we are recovering somewhat. 10-year btp is down 4.5%. the 10-year bund is 2.67% right
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now. yesterday, we hit 2.7%. just watch out for 2.77% which is the level of the 10-year bund reached in march. the highest level in 12 years. those are some signs to watch out for in european fixed income. for u.s. treasuries, i spoke earlier, showing 16-year highs. 10-year treasury is 4.31. the 2-year treasury is high of 5%. i believe is the third time we've broken through 5% since 2007. there you have it. third time the 2-year treasury broke 5% since 2007. equity markets are breaking concerns of the rising interest rates. nasdaq and dow opening in the green in positive territory. in terms of data, not a lot to
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watch out for today. the jackson hole isymposium is the important event on friday. >> we have seen that issue in the equity and bond markets, joumanna. when interest rates rise or yields rise, you see tech stocks suffer. that was not the case yesterday with therally in the nasdaq breaking the four-day losing streak. joumanna, looking at the market expectation for fed futures, rate cuts expectations are pushed back. first rate cut priced in may of 2024. they were expecting a rate cut now. >> let's unpack the drivers. i spent time thinking about it this morning. remember yesterday when we were catching up on what you missed in markets last week? one thing is the data is pricing to the upside in the u.s. the growth momentum is there and it has been surprising to the upside.
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the other is people's expectation of the fed pivot or cut pushed out. for me, i think one of the driver driver is the issuing the government has to do in the second half of the year to give you stats. $1.9 trillion of new borrowing is coming up in the next couple months p. we know the treasury had been largely replenishing the funding reserves they had whittled down. now they have to issue along the curve with the coupon paying bonds. the question is who will buy all of the bonds? who is there buying it? i think a lot of these are factors contributing to what we see. >> it will make jackson hole more important with the rising bond yields. let's look at asian markets overnight. gains across the region. all of the major countries
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seeing gains. nikkei 225 up .95%. we have hang seng and shanghai composite with gains. the yuan is trading flat today after the chinese state banks bought offshore yuan. it comes after the china central bank cut the one-year loan prime rate, but kept the five-year loan rate unchanged. the currency is down more than 5% against the dollar so far this year. >> let's bring in adrian schmidt. good morning, adrian. let's start with the price action we have been witnessing. jo julianna and i have been talking about the yields and the u.s. treasury bonds at levels not seen in 16 years. what can china do to counter that strength or interest rate
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differential they are witnessing right now with the pboc cutting rates? how can they actually support the local currency? >> well, i don't think they really want to prevent the currency decline. after all, we're in a situation where china is seeing something close to deflation in comparison to the high inflation elsewhere of thelsewhere. the central bank intervention helps. they have the ability to intervene if they want to do so. capital exports are limited. they want it to be slow. they don't want a sharp decline, but i think they are happy to see a modest decline. it will slow down a little bit of intervention. >> i do wonder to what extent
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they are watching the weakness in the currency and concerned about the capital outflows because that will be more destabilizing for the economy. is there any level you are watch withing and beyond which the authorities will get uncomfortable? >> i think we would expect it to get close to 750 this year and maybe even higher than that if we see more weakness in the chinese economy than we expect and consequently more rate cuts. i don't think that is a particular concern. i think if we pressed 7.75 or 8 is a concern. the pace is what matters. the level is not remarkable given the dollar strength elsewhere. we are only back to where we were last october in dollar -- although the dollar has weakened elsewhere.
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from the bigger picture, you could hardly say it is particularly weak compared to the currency. the yen is much weaker. >> let's shift gears to the yen. i'm curious what's your take of what is priced in with dollar to yen levels. >> dollar/yen in the last couple years has been following yield spreads. it is probably slightly overshot where yield spreads suggest it should be on the short-term basis. at the moment, we've edged back a bit overnight. maybe scoped down to 145 in the short run. bigger picture, of course, the yen is a lot weaker than it looks because of the very low japanese inflation relative to elsewhere that we have seen which means there has been a big real depressciation in the yen.
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the big picture is much more yen positive in that long run where we expect the yen to recover. the trigger for that is less clear and probably requires either lower yields elsewhere or a significant decline in equity markets and rise in equity risk premium. the very low equity risk premium that exists at the moment shows our driver in favor of the dollar and risk of the currencies which undermine the yen. it is very hard to see the premium decline a lot further. really back above 2007 level was with the equity risk premium. it is getting to a stage where you think i'm not sure we can get more positive on equities and not sure yields can rise further in the u.s. and it has
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the potential for the jgp yields to rise 1%. i think that suggests to see dollar/yen fall back over the next few months. >> we will keep a close eye on it. 145 is a key level for the investment community. adrian, thank you for joining us. adrian schmidt. we're going to leave you with live pictures from pretoria where xi jinping is set to meet members of the bric summit. a key summit we're watching closely.
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a.r.m. is setting the stage for the october nasdaq listing. and european equities gljoi the global rally as investors brush off the selloff in treasuries with the 10-year treasury scale the highest level in 16 years. south africa welcomes leaders of the bric nations. let's take you back over to pretoria. if you are joining us now, we are keeping a close eye on south africa today ahead of the bric summit. xi jinping is set to meet members before the summit kicks off. you are looking at union
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building in pretoria. >> the summit is held in johannesburg. as for arabile, it is 40 kilometers away. a short drive for the leaders meeting as you see. the leaders of the brics are gathering in johannesburg for the summit. this is the first in-person summit since the pandemic. xi jinping landed last night. vladimir putin will join the summit virtually. arabile joins us with more. give us a breakdown of what we can expect out of the summit. it is unlikely bed fellows. >> all of the bed fellows are trying to find one way to move that economic agenda together. emerging nations as they are
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when in 2009 when bric was formed. the highest growing economies in the world and south africa joined in 2010. kmien china got involved to see africa as a key focus. the unlikely partners came together to form the alliance in hopes of creating an emerging market agenda. here is where the agenda lies. take a look at the intra-bric trading picture. a large number of them have china as their primary destination point when it comes to imports and exports. that trade be ing picture has increased. chinese trade with africa sitting at $282 billion. interesting to note in the scenario which this summit is held in south africa.
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south africa has the lowest gdp and per cap tarkcapita of the b nations. it surpasses the trade with russia and brazil has with russia as well. it may be small, but some parts of the significant basis in the entire conversation. i mentioned that earlier how china had been making entry into africa quite significantly over the last ten years. this is actually how you see it. china and africa trade has gone up since the start of the bric alliance, particularly since 2010, as that has gone a lot higher. imports from africa total $175 billion and exports of $165 billion. china is the second largest trade partner to africa.
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second only to europe. that's because the u.s. has actually dropped off quite considerably. of the united states is foreign trade, but africa makes up 1%. for china, that makes up 5%. they made a keen interest and key entry into africa. that is why there is significance in the meeting with president xi jinping and members of the summit. what does this mean today for the expansion plans? this is where the agenda lies today. there has been economic talks to ensure they get more in terms of power across the world and the likes of saudi arabia and venezuela have asked to join the brics nations. e even nigeria and morocco and egypt. they want to be able to create an economic power that would rival the others in the world.
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whether that could happen, however, is going to be very significant to note because south africa, india and brazil's stake in bric would then be brought down quite significantly. if you have saudi arabia, russia as well as china in one economic block, imagine how that could change the conversations as well against the united states. that's quite important to take note of, but all five countries would have to agree on the agenda and who they would let in. this is how the currencies of the nations have been performing the last 12 months. brazil real is seeing a dip. 3%. russian ruble with the energy exports. 60% higher is the russian ruble. the last 12 months on the equity
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front is showing a mixed picture with the shanghai composite going down 4% there. marginal gains across the boards. russia is going up 40%. it is an economic pact that needs to serve a purpose, ladies, and the question of de-d de-dollarization. can they make headway? >> thank you, arabile. cnbc spoke to the man who coined the term bric. the senior adviser jim o'neil. we asked if the term should be retired. >> i don't think it is likely to be retired in the lie tfetime. they will expand it to call it bric plus. i don't know or what they're trying to achieve. they haven't achieved anything as a collective club even in areas with scope of real
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cooperation such as infectious disease prevention. bringing in a mishmash of other countries, i don't understand what they're trying to achieve other than enjoy the fact they can meet every year without the united states being present. it has huge symbolism for the global south. i think it is in some ways unhelpful along with countries seemingly becoming obsessed with the relevance of the g7. >> it is 14 years since the term was coined. let's bring in chris turner, the head of research at ing. great to have you with us. it was fascinating listening to the history of the brics described by arabile. it was fine in 2009 with russia putting it together. looking at the trade charts we put up, it seems the biggest ben
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beneficiary is china. >> that is the trade and the trade through the swap lines. with we hear about china with the swap line of 40 countries around the world means they are trying to give importers payment and extend the reach. you talk about the yuan strategy. this is part of the increase of influence. >> purpose of putting together this block was to counter the role the dollar was playing in the world. if you fast forward today, how successful have they been? >> we put out a report on the subject of de-dollarization. we looked at trade and commerce and one is the role of assets.
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another one is the role of l liab liabilities. what currency would you like to issue? really one of the key arguments of sterling is losing its crown in the inter-war period is the dominance of dollar related debt. you have to say that the moves have been gradual indeed. the biggest loss or share in the market share of the dollar is the asset side with fx reserves. there could be arguments with the strong dollar and massive intervention from the emerging markets to sell dollars and support chile which lost half of the reserves to support the chilean peso. this is trade at 2.5%. although the trading system which counters the western swift is hard to get the data. it looks like it is increasing,
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but gradual. >> when it comes to the agenda for the summit as arabile mentioned, expansion is a topic and controversial one. do you see sdcope for them to expand the block? what countries could join up? >> i said the top subject is expansion. they have something to say today presuma presumably. we believe the countries are the ones which entered the development bank which is the bric alternative to the world bank. egypt, the uae and bangladesh. there has been suggestion of saudi arabia joining. that would be a massive surprise. it would hit the dollar because of the saudi pricing in non-dollar pricing would emerge. i think that is a bridge too far. >> over the last year and a
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half, obviously russia's role has changed dramatically. not attend iting the summit. how has that changed the alliance with the war with russia and ukraine and tensions which erupted with russia and the west? >> very tricky question, indeed. i don't know. vladimir putin is not there and that may be a challenge today. it focused more on the china role in the global economy. i think talking about other currencies in the way the brics currency today. they like to push that ahead from the position of strength. here we are with china and how they stimulate under pressure. that is not a great environment to talk about currency with the brics. >> if you were a non-china country in brics, what advantage
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do you get from this apart from the symbolic alliance? there hasn't been a dent in the dollar trend. you were evaluating. geopolitically, it is complex with the situation right now. the main beneficiary is china. what does it offer to the less likely nations? >> with the new development bank which is alternative to the central bank, there is a build of influence outside of the west. i think they have intention to expand lending there and particularly in the idea of non-dollar currency which is the development bank which is 30% financing in local currency. better terms in non-dollar currency which is borrowing for
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construction promjects. >> india played both sides especially with oil and continuing oil from russia. they want to support the population and they have plenty of problems of their own. what is india seeking to get from the alliance at this stage? >> that's a tricky question as well. i think going back to the issue of expansion, they have been retiscent. china has pushed back against that. presumably with trade and build the non dollar block which woul rates and sufficienering on the of that would be a target. >> interesting. >> very interesting. thank you, chris, for joining
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us. chris turner. head of research for uk and ce at ing. coming up on the show, global covid cases tick higher as variants emerge. we will look at the latest from the vaccinemakers next. has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.
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welcome back to the show. bhp group cut the dividend to 80 cents a share from $1.75 a year ago as they posted the lowest profit in years on the back of higher costs and commodity prices. it sees demand from china and india as stable, but looking for the wider developed world. and european natural gas prices hit a two-month high on monday as workers in australia threaten strike action as soon as next week if the deal is not reached over pay on wednesday. potential strikes across australian export facilities could disrupt 10% of the world's lng flows. the ceo meg o'neill is confident
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strikes could be avoided. >> we have been engaged with our work force since april of this year. we had a number of really positive meetings where we have been able to listen and understand the areas of concern and share perspective on the health of the business. i think the discussions have been constructive. we feel like we need to continue to have those respectful and positive engagements with the work force. they have the right to take protecptected industrial action. there are a wide range of actions which could be frustrating or slowdowns or dramatic shut-in actions. given the tone of the discussions with the work force, we are optimistic we can continue to make headway with them in a constructive way and avoid significant industrial action. now that we're nearly two
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hours into the trading session, you see we are clearly off to a solid start following wall street highs. the rally stateside came in the second half of the day. a bit of catch up from that. cac 40 in front up 1%. the smi in switzerland up .10%. we are lagging in the uk. in terms of fx markets, you have the dollar trading on the back foot. euro is up .20% against the greenback. 109.09. sterling is up .20%. we are still under the 128 level. u.s. futures. we are looking at more gains for the major markets stateside after the rally yesterday. the tech rally as we discussed earlier is interesting given we
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also saw the rise in bond yields. it did nothing to halt the tech stocks. we saw the nasdaq break a four-day losing streak in yesterday's trade. zoom, zoom, zoom. shares of zoom rose 8% in extended trade overnight as second quarter revenue came in at $1.1 billion. the company surpassed the expectations from analysts despite a slowdown following the end of pandemic-era work from home policies. our u.s. colleagues will speak to the zoom cfo kelly steckelberg today at 14:15 cet. covid cases are on the rise in the uk. a disease strain was confirmed in the country last week after discovered in denmark and israel. the u.s. has rising infection numbers. last week, moderna said the updated vaccine works against the variants.
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pitt pfizer is targeting the key sub variant. joumanna, the trade in the vaccine makers was fascinating. we saw steep increases in the share price of novavax which is up 13%. moderna up 10%. pfizer is getting a boost as well. to my mind, it is two things, or three things. rise of cases and p hospitalizations in the u.s. and the biden administration on the back of that is planning to launch a major booster campaign this fall and the third is the vaccine makers have performed poorly year to date. >> the vaccine makers were taking a dip as people have not been getting boosters. now people are talking about potential boosters a plus. i think the other element that is interesting and i talk about the uk here is there are plans
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for the uk government to allow the companies to sell the vaccines and boosters privately. traditionally it has gone through the nhs. if they he aare allowed to sell directly to the market, that could be a tailwind to the vaccine p makers. >> i imagine when the companies strike deals with public health systems, the pricing is different than selling privately. i think the bigger question is take of the vaccines. not just for the uk if they are sold privately, but for the u.s., looking at the stats, 50 million people in the u.s. got the vaccine last fall when it was offered against 73% of the population or 250 million when first offered. appetite for the vaccines is waning. >> if you have taken the va
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vaccine, part of you is thinking why do i need the booster? it has given me some level of immuni immunity. many people contracted covid and have recovered from it. the feeling is why should i go again for another boost if i had covid once? i know i'm fine. there is no need for me to take another vaccine at this point. it is going to be interesting going forward especially because there has been an increase of anti-vax sentiment. >> certainly that rings true what you described. it was interesting to see the major share price reaction yesterday. if this campaign stateside is robust and leans into the need for a vaccine that is tailored to the variants, maybe you say higher take. there is uncertainty around this population. in the u.s., it is a wider population. in the uk, it is vulnerable part
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of the population. stateside, it is everybody. we will round off the show by going back to pretoria. we will give you live pictures right now of president xi jinping who touched on the ground yesterday and is about to meet with the counterpart rhamaphosa. they will be going together to the actual official brics summit in johannesburg which is an hour's drive. we will leave you with the images. that's it for our show today.
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters of the here is the "five@5." the rate shock rocking wall street. yields rise to the highest in decades. brooeaking right now. microsoft is looking to ease concerns of the regulator. the regional bank reckoning. showing no signs of slowing down. the s&p now joining moody's and slashing rating on a number of names in that space. >>
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