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tv   Mad Money  CNBC  August 22, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT

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name -- >> that is my first name. >> is chris. >> i didn't know that. >> did you know that? i didn't know it. >> you weren't paying attention, but yeah -- i like tyler. >> i like tyler, too. i like everything about ty. you'll be back tomorrow? great having kris here. international business machines. >> >> there you go. thanks for watching "fast money." "mad money" starts now. my mission is simple. to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to cramerica. trying to make a little money. my job is not just to entertain you, but educto educate you and teach you. so call me or tweet me. somebody's very wrong here. we've seen so many articles with data points that show there are
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real cracks in the economy. hardly a day goes by when we don't hear higher interest rates are in business. in the last 24 hours, i read an article about how vehicles have gotten to expensive and car loans are rocketing. i've seen pieces about how houses are just way una unaffordable. job firing is more like it. now tech spending. look, it's beginning to scrutinize even the highest level. not just talking about enterprise software. cybersecurity software. fire alarms and smoke detectors. and sure. the averages keep coming in. man, this market just not trading, headed for recession. is stocks aren't saying it. the news articles say they are. everything i just listed is a sign businesses are pulling back from spending. they're worried about labor
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stri strikes and don't want to invest too much. it's not that much better. we heard a down beat tale from macy's. take away from walmart, which is going great. people are trading down. much cheaper store brand but people worried about the, market's worried about whether we'll have sale going forward that are anything worth writing home about. meanwhile, the housing stocks have hit a wall while banks scramble to find some credit to give customers. bank's doing worse than the home builders. you can paint a pretty ugly picture here but of all these issues we're reading about. if all the data points are real, if we're truly headed into a serious slowdown, why does this market hate the slowdown stocks? the ones where you're supposed to buy when you see the kind of action that we're getting from the news headlines. they've been a cascading
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nightmare. some say it's because many are give you better yields. the thing is that this is the whole thing that's happening. back to the store to buy goods. trying to make the dollar stretch further. especially if she's trying to pay off student loans. i don't know if we're headed for a slowdown but it makes sense to dip your toe into true recession stocks because they've gotten cheap. let me tell you about the ones that make the most sense in what has become a bear market for the consumer package goods. the two easiest stocks to recommend you right now are pepsico and mondelez. nice sideways to down action. the stock of pepsico is truly unusual. here's a company that beat the estimates 18 times. gave one of the biggest forecasts. even the carbonated business which i've given up have double digit growth.
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web bush turned its numbers up big talking about they could earn $8.09 a share. with the stock going from 1.75 to 1.96 as commodity prices come down, i think the stock has gotten too cheap to ignore. mondelez may be even better. raised its forecast from 10 to 12%. unlike most of the packaged goods group, it had growth of nearly 16% this past quarter driven primarily by price increases. the norm has been volume declines and as they try to push to even modest price increases and the consumer has started to just say no at the supermarket. but here you have a more than 15% grower being after this decline it sells for 20 times next year's earning estimates. remember, if you can get a company, company like mondelez that's growing at 15% from just 20 times next year's earning
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estimates and those earnings are actually accelerating, that's a very positive situation. mondelez is just terrific here. i don't care what the economy does. now there are a lot of ano, ma'am anomalies. proctor and gamble, skin and personal care up and grooming up 8% as higher pricing stuck while their cost of goods dropped. meaning the real nice margin expansion. proct proctor's one of the better stocks. it ran from 150 to 158. paying time in peryaurgatory of 130s and 140s but now the stock has been crushed. i'm wondering if it's time to buy the stock back to be sold to the charitable trust at a much higher level. i can't believe how quickly those gains were lost if you stuck around. they raised the forecast. it's like they never put up that
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shocking 13% earnings growth number. it's as stounding how badly the stock acts. you want a company that's plummeting based on nothing? how about the stock of hershey. here's one that's gone in $276 without a peep, although i do like peeps the candy. as the analysts are afreaid of trying to catch a falling knife. meanwhile, what did hershey do wrong? they reported a ten cent earnings beat, raised their guidance to 11 to 12%. talked about gross margin improvements. hershey's opening five new manufacturing places to meet demand but they didn't raise their forecast for 2024. they prefer to be conservative. they had a good quarter met with bad reaction. if it reports the same number today with a slowing economy, the stock down 16 bucks from its highs ahead of a good halloween, i bet there would be takers. buy, buy, buy! it's cost going down as prices
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go up. a heck of a combination. or thought that clarks can do 1.8 billion in sales but managed to do more than 2 billion. a remarkable feat for what used to be a disappointing company. but not anymore. i saw so much to like about the quarter with three of the four reporting segments exceeding sales estimates. earnings were strong. loo looking 37%. the ceo is turning this place around and the i think the stock's ready to launch. now getting the last quarter for free. highly unusual. if we really are in a slow down. conste constellation brands but to be truly enticing. the mexican beers are just too popular. finally, if you really buy all of this bad news about the economy, maybe it pays to buy the worst goods. the one nobody wants like the ones with 52-week lows like campbell's soup, which is breaking down kind of an okay
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quarter. made a starring purchase of the pairedcompany. breaking up into two company. the snacks and cereal. at these levels, the stock gives you nearly a 4% yield. bottom line. none of these recession stocks work in the economy stays way high but they make for good protection in case jay powell says something really harsh on friday that makes us terrified of a slowdown. i like pepsico and mondelez the most. your portfolio at this stage of the game needs the insurance of a slowdown stock. josh in california. josh. >> hey, jim. here's a triple boo-yah for you. >> i love a good triple boo-yah to start the show. what's up? >> my question's about southwest airlines. i own it and am in the red and have noticed a lot of analysts downgrades in the past month.
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should i buy, sell, or hold? >> i don't like the way the stock acts, how the company is doing. i think you can hold it, but don't buy anymore. sometimes we own stocks for the trust and i buy a small position and i just watch it. if it's really bad, i just doept buy anymore. i should just sell it but i have a history of a couple of really bad ones and southwest is a real bad one. dennis in massachusetts. dennis. >> hey, jim. i'm very interested on your thoughts in the energy and how it might affect netflix's market share. >> i'm going to refer you to the actual calls of netflix where they talk about the competition and how it hasn't really hurt them. i think they've been very right. i'm worried about the writers strike but netflix is a very good company and i've been in favor for a very long time. all right. your portfolio needs the insurance of a slowdown stock,
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especially if fed chief powell says something really harsh on friday. my favorites are pepsico and mondelez. we are continuing our series of august losers that may be worth looking at by revealing five more beaten down names that i find enticing. the stock market's pretty much hostage to the power of the bond market. what could that mean for the broader average? and from professionals to the at home handy men, where do home improvements stand as we emerge from the covid boom? i'm going to be with the fabulous ceo of lowe's so stay with cramer. don't miss a second of "mad money." follow on twitter. have a question, tweet cramer.
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. you know me, i'm always telling you to wait for a pullback so you can buy your favorite stocks at lower prices but when it arrives, it's terrifying. not many have the guts to pull the trigger. i'm highlighting some of my favorite names amongst the biggest losers of the month. staying with the s&p by the way. these stocks are absolutely worth buying in weakness. they're just too good. tonight, we'll start with a real estate investment trust. host hotel and resort. 72 properties in the u.s. five properties internationally. stock down 42% to date and it's a dividend stock with 3.8% yield
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it looks less attractive. but the company lost on missed numbers and trimmed its full year forecast. host hotel said that transient de demand was affected and elevated international outbound travel without a corresponding increase to national inbound travel which led to lower revenue per average room. so it's not perfect. cut the funds for operations by 2%. 12%. 2% cut. 12% decline. i think that's excessive. stock's now darn chief especially considered the strength in travel leisure. next up, the stock is down 13% for the month. the stock down 7%. however, we spoke with the ceo
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later that day and he explained that the numbers were sub par because it took a little longer for them to add capacity in one of their distribution centers. they actually raised its full year sales and earnings forecast. not the quarter. although nobody seemed to care. time. now that's absurd. rockwell's a major player in domestic manufacturing. the stock's gotten even cheaper. it could get cheaper still. but i like it. let me give you another one. it could turn to a longer term winner. i think -- it's one of the rare retailers of the stock that's hanging in there just fine and then boom, it reports a great number and tumbles 14%. the problem when the reporter on the 10th, quarterly results were excellent. nice earnings beat and even
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though it was a little soft, that was more than off set by strength in europe and asia. unfortunately, that meant decline to raise the full year forecast and their guidance to the current quarter was a little discouraging. they're talking about sales being flat to upside. analysts expecting more than 3% growth. margin guidelines came in light, t too. that hurt. after speaking with the ceo, i feel great about how the company is positioned in the long-term. ralph lauren's winning with younger consumers and they're slowly shifting the brand further into the luxury category. the purple label for suits, which is a lot of power. plus, there were some that may have been lost on people. while ralph lauren declined to raise its full year sales outlook or operating margin outlook, management did say they expected more gross margin expansion than they guided for. ralph lauren decided to invest
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heavily in some longer term growth initiatives like digital. i think these investors are smart which is why i'm not sweating this one. i think it's worth picking up here. i think it's a steal. the next august loser, more of a little bit more of a risk. the online travel agentcy with stock that's down 11% for the month. well, this one's tougher. some investors are beginning to fear the post covid travel boom might be getting long in the tooth. i heard the same thing a year ago when everyone was terrified of a looming recession. turns out travel astayed strong. business is terrific. they absolutely blew away the earnings estimate. of course, it wasn't perfect. expedia said its vrbo home rental business came in a bit light because travelers were taking shorter trips generally to you are began locations.
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i disagree with that. it's just not doing well. not a good company versus the others but expedia has all kinds of travel. i think the real reason the stock has been selling off is that management doesn't give very specific guidance. they only say they expect double digit revenue growth with margin expansion. i'm not worried. expedia told us pricing is holding up well. they said demand has been stable in north america and europe while improving in asia pacific and latin america. they also talked about gross bookings growth accelerating year-over-year in the current quarter. from 5% last time to the high singl single digits. $1.2 billion worth of stock in the first part of the year. that's a huge amount plus now the stock has pulled back. 12 times earnings estimates? looks good to me. way too cheap in a post covid
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world. there's something wrong with it, intuitive surgical. the stock that's also down 11% month to date. this is another beaten down stock with a great long-term feed. people getting non urgent surgely now that hospitals aren't packed with covid patients. that's why it's down 30% for the year from mid july. since then, it's down nearly 20%. what happened? first, intuitive surgical reported a great quarter on july 20th but the stock sold off anyway. mainly due to profit taking. more recently, the stock has struggled because we're getting these powerful new diabetes and weight loss drugs. if people can lose a ton of wagts from taking these drugs, fewer will need bare yat rick surgery, which might mean less business for intuitive. i think that's a legitimate concern but for now, they're doing great. plus, you can finally get the stock at a solid discount versus historical valuation. why not take the chance?
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that's a highly unusual opportunity for a very high priced earnings multiple stock. there you go. five more names that you have got my blessing to buy in the weakness after the averages have wobbled through the first weeks of august. all throughout the week, we'll be back with more opinions and i got to tell you something. i really like these stocks. and if i had to buy one, i'd by all of them. back after the break. >> coming up, worries over china can be a t bill's best friend. but will stocks battle back? the charts tell the tale. next.
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never forget that the stock market is often hostage to the bond mark. this year, stocks have been
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roaring, at least until the last few weeks while long-term treasury prices have plunged. that's normally how it works. however, and this is a big but here. when they reach opposite extremes, they generally have a reversion to the mean situation where they start to converge again. that's why it's off the charts with a help of carly varner, who might have seen her on chart week, cofounder of carly trading. because she thinks that's where we're headed. according the her, the spread has widened to unnatural and unsustainable levels where we're talking, whether we're talking about price or investor sentiment. if you get the bullish sentiment index, at least 70% they polled were positive on the stock market while only 30% were bullish on treasuries. varner thinks that's extreme. when you look at the monthly chart of the ten-year treasury, no futures in red and s&p futures in green, she says you
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can see the markets are straight from historical norms. even though plotting stocks and bonds on the same chart is like comparing apples and oranges, it gives you a sense of where the money is going. longer term treasuries have plunged in price and surged in yield. since last fall, they've been rebounding like crazy. in garner's view, either stocks are too expensive or treasuries are too cheap. maybe a little of both? next, check out the monthly chart of the ten-year note futures. this is the note, not the yield. this treasury market is sick, she says. so far, the short end of the yield curve is getting all the attention. remember, this is the ten. the ten-year got hammered by rampant inflation. the rate hikes, these factors have become a lot less
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significant than 12 months ago. somehow, the tenure will be testing last year's lows. she's questioning that. garner points out that the markets always feel worse than on the retest. especially when it comes several years later. however, historically, this is how the bond market has worked for decades. 2006, 2007, we got a double bottom. that happened over 12 months. 2013, 2014, a triple bond. in 2018, the ten-year had a triple bond. this year, garner wouldn't be surprised if we get another bottom within an 11 or 12-month span. that would be amazing. really would be. and now look at the relevant strength index or rsi near the bottom. this is really important. garner points out that even though the ten-year retested last october, it recovered from oversold territory.
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in october, it hit 20. this time, it's near 30. it's a bullish divergence, okay? she could see the ten year futures bottoming at 107 with the support of 4.5% yield. so remember, this is where she thinks this bottom, okay. 4.5% yield. could be here. we don't know. more important, garner thinking the ten year is likely to bottom because wall street has gotten so darn negative. let's get more facts on that. take a look at the ten year futures with the commitments of traders down at the bottom. what we care about here is the green line. right now, they're holding the largest natural position in the history, the history, of the ten year futures note. which is really incredible. garner expects a large short covering rally or even a longer term trend reversal similar to what we saw with the s&p futures
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when they rebounded earlier this year. could be very big. even though she sees the spread between stocks and bonds narrowing, it's because she thinks the ten-year due for a major comeback. what we're looking at here is she thinks that this, the ten-year treasury no futures, this could go back, that it's down way too much. she thinks the path of least resistance remains higher. down about 85 points. plus, the federal reserve has pulled out all the stops. hasn't been able to slow down the economy, which is good news for the stock market. remember, if the stock market were somehow, if we started to think there was going to be a recession at the top of the show, this would be much lower. she points out the seasonal pattern for the s&p to be in an unusually positive run from mid
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august to september then cool off before a year end rally. if the core support around 4300 collapses, she'd get more negative. right here. in that case, she thinks the s&p might plunge to 3900. possibly lower. however, as long as the floor holds, garner expects to see the s&p working its way up to 715 possibly retesting its high. when you look at the report, you can see the bar speculators are a lot less negative than they were a couple of months ago. here, largely speculators. that's in green. they've come up a little bit. while the large net short position stocks have been mostly unwound, money managers still net short the market. it's not like wall street's collecting a positive. as garner sees it, the longer the s&p 500 can hold off, throw in the towel and send us higher.
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also importance of equity in portfolios along with accumulation of cash on the sidelines. she thinks a lot of money managers have been waiting for dips since there's been so much bearish -- maybe they're getting it right now. at the very least, she didn't expect a severe pullback. some of this has to do with pessimism about china. she thinks we're approaching peak chinese pessimism. why? earlier this week, speculators bull on commodities. bidding the chinese yaun higher. as it turns out, guess what. the china merged and the reopening was a shell of its former self. the lockdown did a lot of damage to the economy. as a result, garner notes that the chinese reopening trade was unwound causing both commodities and the yaub to weaken. right now, bearish chinese
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sentiment, i mean i'm bearish. the currency, she says she likes a lot what we see from the ten-year treasury note. i don't know. this is where she sees. she thinks it's setting up for a capitulation low and stocks in china did run this morning. bottom line. the charts by garner suggest long-term treasuries are now underpriced over the course of years. the spread between the two assets will likely narrow. that said, she's feeling confident about the s&p 500 especially turning out to be nearing peak pessimism in china. the bonds have come up, not the stocks, that go down. tony in florida. >> hey, jim. first, i wanted to give a big boo-yah out to the people who work for you and especially nicole there. they're wonderful. >> she is amazing. philadelphia zone. does a terrific job.
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thank you. be sure to pass that one on. >> definitely. >> and a wonderful stock, a different look. it's going to up there going at the top mcdonald's. what do you think about wendy's -- >> i think wendy's is too cheap. i think that yield is good. i like the chairman. the ceo. i' 20. i think the stock could be up 10% in a flash. the charts as interritpreted by garner show the spread is likely to narrow is it's likely that the bonds will go down in interest and up in price. much more ahead including my exclusive with lowe's. there was a bright spot. the company's ceo is so driven and 40 years ago, an article caught my attention about the state of tech. it taught me an important
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retail's been a mixed bag but some stores are doing quite well. take lowe's. strength in the professional and online businesses. this was especially encouraging this last time they missed numbers and had to lower its full year forecast. now they seem to be doing much better hence the 4% rally today. so is this story final by back
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on track? we got a chance to speak with the chairman and ceo. marvin, it is fabulous to see you, as always. >> great to be here, jim. >> now, a lot of people use these phrases. this is the special way to do something. secret sauce. you've got ones that are real. total home. per pet yul product improvement. are they not what is behind this spectacular quarter? >> well, jim, that's a big piece of it and we're really pleased with the financial performance in the second quarter. we delivered positive comps in pro and 6.9% comparable sales growth online as we continue to improve the experience, part of the total home strategy. our ability to reduce expense while improving customer service at the same time is a result of great execution from our front
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line team and really smart technology investments over the last couple of years. and as we look at the do it yourself customer pulling back on discretionary big ticket, we believe that the home improvement market may be down mid single digits in the second half, but if we execute this total home strategy as we have this year, i think we can outpace the marketplace by 100 to 200 basis points. so i remain really bullish on the mid to long-term outlook for home improvement as an overall market and what our total home strategy and our focus on improving our merchandising strategy and other elements of our business, we're going to continue to take market share and fgrow and continue to retur excess capital to our shareholders. over the years, we've talked about the importance of taking care of our front line team. i started my career as an hourly associate so i'm please d in th second quarter we awarded our
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hourly people with bonuses to say thank you for the hard work and commitment in a really tough macro environment. >> incredibly important given the fact we've seen a lot of turnover. a lot of people trying to go for another job that pays a little more. but we see the same people when we go. another thing you're emphasizing is localizing. however, when i see your rules, i think you know what, tractor supply's had this huge market to itself. it's got great margins. you're doing rural. localizing and these are really good for gross margins. >> so jim, you're exactly right. look, i grew up in a town of less than 10,000 people with two stoplights and i lived 12 miles in the country from the 10,000 people. so i understand the rural experience really well and this is a passion project for me. bill boesh grew up in montana so he and i have spent a lot of
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times with our teams and getting a line on our expansion. as we announced in the call, we have 300 stores that we have addressed with a new merchandising concept. we've got petco within the store concept to drive pet. you know that's a huge part for the rural customer. we're going to be rolling out carhart in some of these stores and our goal is to give these customers a one stop shopping experience. we had customers telling us they had to shop multiple locations to get the home improvement products from us but if they needed something for their farm and ranch or pets, they have to go to other places. we know this is high margin, high turn product and so we're looking forward to improving share wallet, space productivity. and jim, one of my favorite sayings to the investment community is we got stores in philadelphia, pennsylvania, your
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hometown, and we got stores in philadelphia, mississippi. that store in philadelphia, mississippi, is a lot cheaper to run in philadelphia, mississippi and we love them both. but we have the unique ability to execute both urban and rural and do it in a way when the customer walks in, it feels like their hometown store. >> one of the great things about your call was that you made it clear you're not in your eighth inning or seventh inning. you're very early. those who think there goes l lowe's, they missed it. >> i believe that wholeheartedly. i tell the team all the time we ought to be excited every day we come to work because we've grown market share. we've increased the market cap salization of the company. we've grown return investment capital operating margin. made great investments in supply chain and we're literally in the
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earl early innings of what i define as a world class retailer. i'm on record as saying i think the next five years is going to be better than the past five years and the past five years have been pretty dog gone good. but we feel like we have a roadmap of specific initiatives and we're spending over $2 billion of capital every year regardless of the macro environment. our balance sheet is so strong that we can continue to invest to improve the supply chain and we're really excited about the future of this company. >> i think a lot of people say milo's. i know i do. i got my quaker town lowe's and my river town. i told my daughter who's a baker, i said look, what you want to do, look at everybody. decide who you want to get your range from, your alliances, then call lowe's. she did. she was very intimidated. they treated her as if they knew
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she was nervous and they brought her the product. i think the amateurs like it, too. i think that's a major change from marvin. you've got the amateurs and pros buying at the same time. >> jim, you just defined the strategy. i mean, we want to make sure that we have a very purposeful strategy around the do it yourself customer and the pro customer. when you talk about appliances, we're number one in market share because of great innovation from our suppliers, but also the last three years, we've been building out a market delivery strategy that can deliver appliances almost anywhere in the country next day. that is something we know is a market leading initiative in addition to the fact we spend a lot of time investing in those associates. we've got lowe's university.
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we take aur associates through specific product training. so when i hear stories like your daughter calling and getting the product knowledge she needs and walking her through the features and benefits that work best for her, that tells me we're making good progress in giving our associates what they need to serve our customers at a very high level. >> always just fantastic to talk to you. when i saw the numbers, i said once again, absolutely terrific. i also want to point out the maui fire donation is another thing that you did on your own beyond the 100 million for the front line. thank you for the maui. that was really terrific, marv. >> jim, we have one store in maui but we felt like the devastation was something like we had never seen and hopefully we'll never see again. our associates on the ground have been working so passionately. we decided as a company to donate a million dollars for food, for shelter, for emergency clean up in addition to the
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individuals on the ground that's working there to help the community. so thank you for that, jim. i've said it many times before. i believe wholeheartedly if we take care of the customers with higher degrees of service, we give our associates a wonderful place to work and make our communities better. that will create sustainable shareholder value. >> i want to thank the president and chairman and ceo of lowe's. great quarter. it's a work in progress. that's why i know there's so much more ahead. thank you great to see you. >> always good to be with you, jim. >> coming up, cramer wants to hear from you. your calls on the thunderous lightning round. next. how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong?
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it is time. it's time for the lightning -- plain and simple. and then the lightning round is over. are you ready? start with rick in wisconsin. >> hi, jim. my question is mro. what's your current feelings on that? >> i think it's a very inexpensive stock. i think you should buy it here. i don't mind having an independent energy company. i have a couple for the charitable trust. i like them. sam in colorado. sam. >> jim, how are you? >> i'm good. >> i've got an interesting one. every now and then, the market gives you an opportunity and you've got to make a decision as to whether or not you're going to buy or wait. >> i hear you. >> questions to want about one of the best companies, a really
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fast growing industry. it's about to see a ton of money come into it. enphase energy. >> just keeps going down. i think at this price, it seems cheap. i don't know. maybe a buy on calls. it is just an unmitigated disaster because it needs financing. you need to have financing to use their products and that's what people don't realize. it's a finance play. bob in pennsylvania. bob. >> hey, jim. thanks for taking my call. >> absolutely. >> i'm calling today about coherent. cohr. >> yeah, they make, look, this is another one of those -- they have a lot of the semiconductor like components but they're not making money and we're just not going to recommend a stock that's not making money. let's go to sarah in north carolina. sarah. >> hi, jim. >> hi, sarah. how are you? >> i'm good. thank you.
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i would like to ask about iet. >> what a mess. i have no idea what it is. i have no idea how it makes its money. i just think it's totally opaque. i say stay away. how about quentin in virginia. quentin. >> hey. >> boo-yah. what's up? >> hey, man, this is independent candidate for governor of west virginia. because of this new bricks thing that's going on and what's about to go down the pipe on november 1st, is this a good time to buy gold? >> yeah, look, i think gold is an insurance company. it's like asking me if it's a good time to own car insurance. i always want to own gold. it's a good company. not the best lately. th it's not run as well as it used to be and that is the conclusion of the lightning round.
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>> coming up, cramer spins a stock solution of the greatest story ever told. study up and let this all timer do the work. next.
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good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. this is dr. arnold t. petsworth, he's the owner of petsworth vetworld. business was steady, but then an influx of new four-legged friends changed everything. dr. petsworth welcomed these new patients. the only problem? more appointments meant he needed more space. that's when dr. petsworth turned to his american express business card, which offers flexible spending limits that adapt with his business. he used his card to furnish a new exam room, and everyone was happy. built for dr. petsworth business. built for your business. amex business.
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every time some segment of tech catches fire, we agonize over the same things. how could these stocks be worth so much money? aren't we just paying the greater fool theory buying in the expectation some other will
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come in and buy it? you hear it with the $100 billion evaluation but you know what, i heard that stuff, same stuff, 40 years ago and it turned out to be the greatest story ever told. let me set the scene. 45 years ago, i read a cover story of money magazine that really got under my skin. some mutual fund manager was saying tech would come back. i remember the moment well. i was in the dentist office. i picked up the magazine. i hated tech stocks. just didn't seem there could be two markets. the tech and non tech. i thought it made perfect sense for tech stocks to crash. made me feel relevant again. i was wrong. dead wrong. tech, it just came roaring back out of nowhere. back with a vengeance back to its premium status where it lorded over the rest of the market.
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40 years ago. it was time to buy not sell. it was only my limited capacity to not imagine what kept me out. i never forgot that cover story. i found myself messagmerized by tech after that. i bought microsoft after that. then number two, microsoft exec, although the goldman stock disciplined me. they wouldn't even pay for my plane fare to seattle and blew out my aereardrum, too. it couldn't stop me from loving the stock. when microsoft became public in march of 1986, i bought it for almost every one of my clients in my private wealth practice. it was one of the greatest growth stories in history. expensive all the way, by the way. fast forward to today. we've got the same dynamic we had 40 years ago. tech with a series premium and the rest of the market without it.
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see, i was able to find nvidia, the current gem of the magnificent seven because of the thoughts put into my head by that 1983 article. gave it the same blessing not that long after i noticed it for a decade. the stock always looked expensive when you looked back a year. yes, the true earnings power was that much better than wall street expected. that's why i like nvidia so much and have for a very long time. i saw it as a bargain for hedge funds because of the 1983 article. here we are on the eve of nvidia's quarterly report. all the way up, i would have fought it. put puts on it. shorted it. bet against it, but i learned better a long time ago. tech has a well deserved premium because of stocks like nvidia. sure, you could sell the stock. but people doubted microsoft every step of the way.
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they thought it was overvalued and couldn't justify paying up. i don't want you making that mistake with nvidia. nvidia, remember. just own it, don't trade it. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i promise to

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