good wednesday morning i'm carl quintanilla with leslie picker today, can accord chief market strategist tony dwyer is with us his recession call and chief takeaway from earnings so far this year. >> and the ceo of abercrombie & fitch also joins us. huge earnings beat here, raised guidance and the impact of shrink in retail later on, roger ferguson on the possibility of not one more rate hike, but two, as we get closer and closer to powell's speech on friday >> and as we get closer and closer, the markets continue to

turn higher and higher you can take a look at the nasdaq, up 1.4% right now. the s&p up about 0.9% and the dow up about 0.4% today. >> topping the tape for us is this relief in yields and why the cure for high yields is often high yields. that has been the thesis of mike santoli, who joins us this morning. we got back to 4.25. >> we did. and these are minor moves relative to the overall moves we've seen higher in yields, but yesterday we spoke about how this move above october highses in the ten-year note yield, the concern about that was for straining growth it's the market's way of saying maybe we have too hot a period of reacceleration within a late-cycle company, and it's not that far from there from say, we actually have too much the pmi number coming in weaker that be expected today on the back of europe coming, plus, of course, this kind of oversold levels in bonds, got you this relief on the yield fund

i don't think it's game over for this little phase, but interesting to see, the ten-year treasury yield pulled back from what looks like the top end of its range. oil prices pulling back from the top end of that range. and maybe not that much changed. and we're talking about a 5% pullback in the s&p 500 so far so what have we really solving for when we're saying, hey, what's going on in this market maybe what we're seeing is, valuation, sentiment, technicals had to come off the boil they have, so far. >> how much of it is do you think just shortcoming? >> i don't know, obviously i think when the market did have this big short squeeze in july, into the early part of this year, you did see more re-shorting activity i think what it is, we're feeding around the edges people have relatively high equity exposures, but not excessive. so i do think that the yield stuff has gotten -- the outsized attention right now, it's not been about re-pricing the fed. to me, it's more about what

powell's saying, unless he's saying, it's much higher for much longer. i get the action we're all sort of waiting. the nvidia stuff will matter a lot for the an ex move, but i don't think there's a decent way to handcap it. to me, the market has to show its hand >> nvidia, not quite to yesterday's 481, but up a couple of percent do you laugh when people say, it's the most important earnings print of the year? >> i don't in the sense that you do have this incredibly overloved, sort of overbought, big-picture story. and frankly, the interpretation can go either way on any number. the options implied move is 11%. what does that mean? it means the wisdom of the collective crowd is saying, it's going to be $100 billion swing in market cap after the close on this number. that's crazy i've been doing this a long time i've found no good way to figure out which way things are leaning in what looks more like a more likely bet to me it's about, look at the reaction, does it buckle the

rest of the tape for the downside surprise. does it give life to the ai trade from here on out that will give a sense the way the next few weeks will go >> finally, the pmis, new orders are down for the first time in about six months what does that say >> it says that nobody should be too confident about whatever we declare about the trajectory of the economy right now. that we haven't repealed the idea that there's going to be some slowdown effects in there i think what we've done is, we saw the yield move, we've back fitted a lot of interpretation on to that in saying, wow, the economy must be rip-roaring in every way right now, when it really could just be, we got a little bit of a consumer flush when real wages went positive. we're on better footing than we thought. meanwhile, you know, the existing home market is locked up and we don't really know how that's going to play from here and bank stocks, i still think they really have to stabilize to get more confidence in the macro

basis of any move higher not because they have to lead the market bank stocks as a group are dead money for the last 25 years, literally. but they don't -- they can't be going down from oversold levels from here. >> a lot of the regulatory stuff that mayo was telling us last hour >> there's a lot of cloud nnycl, on that sector >> a good set-up as we dig into the markets from jackson hole with our panel of experts. vice chair, roger ferguson is with us, says don't rule out two potential hikes. and tony dwyer, who's been pretty resolute about calling for an eventful recession, steering clear of megacaps and cyclicals. morning guys, good to see you both >> i hope you heard our conversation, because wlhether it's the bank downgrades, the china risk, the pmis, money supply, used car and shelter what will a couple more rate hikes get us

>> let me be very clear. i think one rate hike is probable, two is possible. and it depends very much on just the conversation we're having. we've seen a little bit of what appear to be reacceleration. a number of the incoming data. high-frequency numbers. we're suggesting a lot of forward momentum in the economy. we still have a very, very tight labor market and so, with the data-dependent said, looking at every number, one could imagine a situation where another hike, two hikes are called for i'm not saying that's likely miami saying, let's not simply rule it out and say it's one and done it's one and then let's wait and see. because the situation is murky, and the fed was very clear in this last set of minutes, while there were arguments from both sides, the vast majority seem to think that the risk for inflation was still more to the upside >> is it your expectation that friday's speech will frame that or is it going to be sort of a longer-term thesis on monetary

policy >> i'm not sure. i rather hope that it sort of frames where we are, and builds and elaborates on the minutes. because i think that's the thing that's most important. there may be some longer time-frame discussion, but right now, everyone wants to hear exactly how the fed is thinking about those minutes, and any elaboration. because the minutes have a little bit of everything in them a general sense that inflation is still too high and we must be res resolute and then most people taking upside risk. but we had two individuals who clearly said that they would have preferred to have stopped and there's clearly a notion that the risks are much more balanced so i think it would be nice to hear from the chairman, you know, any elaboration he wants to make around a number of different themes that are in those minutes. >> tony, it appears that you are in the recession camp, despite the fact that a lot of market participants in recent weeks have basically come to this consensus that we are maybe, potentially avoiding a recession this time around

why do you feel differently and how do some of the lag effects as it pertains to treasuries and corporates and mortgages play into your thinking >> well, leslie, it's a great question so i've gone back and i've done a google search for -- you pick the fed chairman and soft landing after it and what you'll find, each time before the recession begins, before the credit gets worse, you get a call for no recession and soft landing it doesn't happen by magic when you look back at the 1995 soft landing, right before i came on, i just -- to make sure i had it right, the ten-year treasury yield went from the end of -- in the fourth quarter of 1994, it went from 8%, and by the beginning of 1996, it dropped down to 5.5% so it wasn't magic that you had a soft landing you had a dramatic improvement, not in the absolute level of rates. where we are today is mortgage rates are at a high. corporate rates are stable and

where they were about a year ago. but the credit spreads have narrowed, because the ten-year has gone up. that's not what you want to see. you want to see the rates come down, to make financing cheaper. and the treasury yields are higher all of those areas that drive expansion in the credit market are not getting better they've gotten worse and again, you know, this sounds so armageddon negative and i'm not, because the time for that was really last summer. now a lot of stocks, more than 50% of stocks are still down 20% from the 52-week high. so a lot of stocks have reflected it our positioning is what we call light and tight, to be able to take advantage of weakness when bad news becomes bad news. so carrying a little bit of extra cash in a light defensive bias i don't want to get too negative, because then it makes it really hard to attack the weakness as it comes >> i see here in the notes that you are avoiding megacap in this scenario, wouldn't you want to at least participate in that to a certain extent

it's been a narrow leadership in recent days, in the megacap tech world. is that really an area to avoid right now? >> i think it is, only because of this. i've proven i'm not a great trader, leslie i'm not going to come on tv and pretend that i am. what i do know is that the top ten stocks currently represent over 32% of the s&p 500. that exceeds anywhere it was in november of '21, in the dotcom boom, and the most since '73, '74. so, we're in a position where they've become too big a part of the market i don't think, for me, i wouldn't advise an individual or an institution to put 32% of their money invested in dmomesti equities into ten stocks that gives you too much concentration risk it comes more from common sense than any kind of great strategist call. >> finally, roger, it's been an interesting couple of weeks, thinking about where the neutral rate is, this piece in the

journal about our star over the weekend. whether or not the target deserves to be moved, even after maybe we do goat 2%. i wonder your broad thoughts about that right now >> so my broad thoughts on the inflation target is, we got to 2% internationally, but it was not driven by, you know, deep, deep analysis. we've now had several decades of experience at a 2% target, and i would say once we're out of this, not now, but once we're out of it, a clear review to figure out, what have we learned. one of the things we've learned, we've stayed at very, very low interest rates for far too long out of concern about not hitting 2% target. maybe the target is a little higher, might be relevant. too early to call that for now on our star, i think the main point is it's not measured with any accuracy so that's where we get to sort of feeling our way along here. we have no idea what our star actually is. so the fed tends to approximate. but basically what they're looking at is the thing that drives inflation

>> that doesn't stop a lot of people from spending a lot of time thinking about it roger, tony, it will be an interesting close to the week. we really appreciate you guys helping us kick off the hour >> thanks for having us. >> thank you up next, the ceo of abercrombie & fitch on the heels of results the stock soaring today and doubling this year after beat and a raise. the '90s are back. despite losing a quarter of its value yesterday, one analyst says dick's sporting goods still has some upside. we'll get to that and nike on track for its longest losing streak since going public. more "squawk on the street" is after this

watching rh today, ubs goes from 350 to 250. they say the upcoming release will provide the market to see to the extent which sales have begun to stabilize, how much additional cash the company is willing to return. you see a 6% gain there, even as la-z-boy, obviously, a different demographic, is down about 3.5 interesting signs. >> clear bifurcation in retail this week. sticking with some of the retail winners, a beat and a raise has shares of abercrombie surging this morning courtney reagan joins us at post nine and has the ceo >> let's bring in abercrombie & fitch ceo, fran horowitz what a quarter this is the second quarter in a row that abercrombie may end up being the standout of all the retailers. when we look back at it, sales

up 26% i think it might be prudent, if you would, to sort of walk out through the changes that you've made with the brand itself i'm not sure that many of the investors understand what abercrombie looks like today, especially if they shopped there in their younger years, and how different it is. i think we have some video that we can share, potentially, while you sort of give us a walk through of how you changed the brand. >> i would love to, courtney so today is the culmination of many years of hard work. not only have we changed the brand's positioning, but we've really transformed the entire company, from top-to-bottom. if you think about abercrombie back in the day, it was really a jeans and t-shirt company. and today, it's truly a lifestyle brand. it's exciting to see our consumer now, who's really -- we target a young millennial. we brought in the ange range, he and she start shopping with us in their early 20s and stay with us for a long time after that. we've added category, for

example, our dress business. that is not something we've done in the best. we are now a destination for dresses. we have a terrific business that is not something to your point earlier in the day that people would have thought about coming to abercrombie but now he and she are wearing those pants to work and for their weekend getaway. our active assortment has been very strong as well. there's a lot of exciting things happening in the brand >> i guess, fran, to that point, we've seen so much weakness in discretionary, particularly apparel, at some of the retailers that sell more than just apparel across different brands so why is abercrombie doing so well many this space, when to your point, so much of this is for more lifestyle wear? >> so in any economic cycle, there are clearly winners and losers, and i would tell you courtney that our playbook is working. that is product and experience coming together. the team has spent a tremendous

amount of time with our customer, with customer insights and understanding what is important to our customer, and that's what the winning formula is you add back into that the chase and the read and react that we've gotten back into our business with the supply chain, it's all the chabllenges that we had last year that's one of the best tools we have in the tool box, testing our assortments, reading them, reacting them, and going after them you saw that our inventory is considerably down at 30% that's because the team comes in every week and is able to reorder into their business. >> i guess, obviously, to your point, inventory down 30%. you kept talking about on the call, the ability to chase demand, which is an enviable position to be in. when you look at the consumer, both u.s. and international, since you have business around the world, what are you seeing are you not seeing a consumer that feels like they need to protect more of their discretionary dollars than they did in the past? >> at any time, the consumer is spending, they're just choosing to spend on our brands

and we are seeing an inflection around the world it was exciting to report today that our brands around the world, each reason, was also positive that's a lot of years of hard work seeing that has been encouraging, as well as in apax. >> yeah, exactly you didn't really mention any kind of a slowdown in asia or in china. did that seem actually to be fairly solid for you this quarter. >> yeah, for this quarter, listen, over time, we've changed our operating model. we used to be a very centrally located company. we are now much more regional and have built teams up in those regions. we've put a lot of talent in there. and they're getting closer to their customer we've moved accountability on to those teams. it's exciting to see what they're producing. >> fran, i'm sure you pay attention to the headlines and have seen all of the discussions about shrink, not just this quarter, but in previous quarters it doesn't seem like it's an issue for abercrombie, at least not one that you bring up. is that true and if so, why not

what are you doing >> so we are not seeing the impact, it's obviously impacting different retailers in different ways we are staying very close with our store teams. we are making sure that the number one importance for us is the safety of our customers and our associates, so today we're not seeing a great impact from it >> the other thing that seems to go against convention knowledge is the idea of stores and the strength of stores can you talk a little bit about what's going on there, particularly as you have talked about, you skewed towards a younger customer, but no longer just teams a customer that's very comfortable shopping online, using digital properties, apps or websites to buy but stores are still important why so >> because i have said, i have been consistent, stores matter the magic of our business is omni stores plus digital equal magic is what i always say so depending upon the brand, if you want to start with holster, the team consumer still loves to go to the mall they city love to socialize with

that you are friends and even if they start their purchase online for research, they will still come to the store. the majority of our business in holster is still done in stores. and you have the abercrombie consumer, who's quite different. they do the majority of their shopping online, and the majority of that business is digital. they still come to the store in order to do a transaction, whether that's picking up something they ordered ahead, doing a return, doing an exchange we went to fifth avenue together just a few weeks ago to see the opening up of our new fifth avenue store and our new expression and the energy and excitement that was going on in there was just contagious. >> the store was very impressive and certainly from a brand transformation, i would encourage anyone that is taking a look at the company would take a look at the new stores they look markedly different from years ago fran, thanks for joining us, ceo of abercrombie & fitch >> thanks, courtney. >> it's pretty amazing when you consider everything that we heard about shrink from dick's sporting goods, even footlocker,

even peloton, right? so many data points point to consumer pressure, and yet, boom >> i know, it is so different. and that's why, you know, we wanted to ask her about it i don'tknow if it has somethin to do with the location of stores being inside malls, which makes it a little harder to run in, grab, you have to run through the mall >> which is what gantt mentioned yesterday, trying to mention that they're insulated from exits to the building. >> and watching out the foot traffic flows in and out that is fascinating. yes, while many different items can be stolen, i think it's about the retail opportunity and obviously, you know, abercrombie is vertically integrated they share abercrombie brands, it's pretty clear where they came from, only one place. and personal care items are very quick to be able to be resold and for whatever reason, the home improvement category has been the target of this for a very, very long time, too. so perhaps there's some insulation, just because of the category and where the physical stores are located but it is very, very curious

and this print, though, tlaz their guidance, really, i think this is going to be, as i said in the beginning, a standout retailer, two quarters in a row, swla surprising. i don't feel like we pay a lot of attention to abercrombie. we call it a teen retailer i'm kind of guilty of doing that but i would encourage you to look at the brand transformation, which is why i started there, because it is very, very different i know many companies talk about this, but if you look at it, it looks very different than what we saw in high school, leslie, when we were in there. it doesn't have the strong smells, it's not dark, the clothing is different, there's more dressier outfits, the wedding guest outfits that are more popular hollister does more teen, but the main brand really doesn't. >> i was thinking, the clologne was deterring all the chemicals. it clouds your brain >> a tactic for sure >> the catalog comes back in the '90s >> i know, there are so many

like resurgence of the '90s in so many different ways >> thanks, court still to come this morning, the latest wall street expectations for nvidia tonight. options the market, as mike mentioned earlier now pricing in a double-digit move either way and peloton cratering after results, down 22% right now. a look at that move and the downfall of the story stack. stay with us ( ♪♪ ) ( sfx: people cheering ) ( sfx: stock exchange bell ringing ) ( ♪♪ )

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european markets close in just a moment's time the story abroad is, has to be st soft pmi data coming in below expectations with ninvestors no looking to the ecb to see if a pause is in order. the euro hit its lowest level dpens the dollar since june. money markets now have a september rate hike priced in at 40%. that number was 60% before today's pmi release.

and you're kind of seeing a little bit of that kind of spill into the u.s. markets as well today, but certainly, something we absolutely had to do for european markets >> the uk pmi suggesting a 0.2% drop and the dollar got close to 104, which was the highest since june again, we keep talking about the hand that the u.s. has, relative to europe and asia, and it's probably not a major developed country that wouldn't want to have at least the set of circumstances that we have going right now. >> absolutely. but contagion is an important thing to keep an eye on, and apollo spoke with us it about yesterday. the u.s. has the brightest spot across the globe but when you look relative to the other economies out there, it's not, you know, the brightest bulb in a box. >> exactly, exactly. you're exactly right session highs here, 4430 let's get a news update with kate rooney.

>> i'm kate rooney here's your cnbc news update at this hour. the u.s. has approved a possible sale of $500 million worth of equipment to taiwan, including infrared search and tracking systems for f-16s. in a statement, the pentagon writes, the proposed sale are in line with u.s. policy and won't alter the, quote, basic military balance in the region. china has continually pushed for the u.s. to stop the sale of weapons to taipei. a top russian general who hasn't been seen in public since the wagner mercenary rebellion was fired today as the head of russia's aerospace forces according to russian state media. general sergey had served as the deputy commander of russian forces in ukraine and is thought to be close with yevgeny prigozhin. and we have an injury report ahead of tonight's gop primary debate north dakota governor doug burgum hurt his leg playing basketball wednesday night he was taken to the hospital and later discharged, but two

sources close to the governor tell nbc news it's not clear whether he can participate the debate does last two hours with candidates standing the whole time guys, got to be careful, pickup basketball, dangerous sport. >> who knew? does he have to stand? can they make an exception i guess there are rules. they have to follow those rules. coming up, deutsche says to buy the dip in one financial stock, that's down more than 6% in the past week alone >> and ninvestors continue to pick some winners and losers in retail one analyst ysft tsa aerhe record drop, she'll join us when "squawk on the street" comes right back plp blp

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let's get to some notes catching our attention charles swhab's sell-off was sparked in news that the company sell over $2 billion in debt the cash sorting, liquidity, and cash levels are overblown. here you can see charles schwab getting a jolt, up 2%. but cash sorting a really big topic of conversation in this world. this is essential clients pulling their money out of noninterest-bearing accounts, finding yield elsewhere, which for a charles schwab or bank of america or regional bank means nor expensive payouts to depositors, which could squeeze margins. and the overall debt issuance

we're seeing with schwab as well as some of the other large banks largely has to do with preparation for additional capital rules and the fdic now is coming out next tuesday with some new rules regarding long-term debt ownership, as an additional buffer for banks in the event of a failure, so that they can kind of toss out that long-term debt before seeking out wiping out depositors. >> we're in a period where the market is obviously sensitive to headlines about issuance, and that's what we saw when that release went out on the flip side, you have the job cut. the key line in deutsche's report, no significant changes to client cash withdrawal behavior the earnings profile, or the liquidity position, which is key. >> that's extremely key. and obviously, with all of the uncertainty we talked about earlier in the hour, regarding the banks, regarding the schwabs of the world, on the regulatory environment and exactly what they need to do to boost their capital buffers, you're going to see a lot of uncertainty what does this bond issuance

mean what is some of the cash-sorting collateral damage and what does it mean for capital. all of these things will work themselves out, but you have basically their ir saying that the fundamentals of the business are okay, so that's what's giving deutsche bank confidence to reiterate its buy rating here >> we'll watch that. a big

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we're over two hours into tra trading. let's go post to post with bob pisani bob, it's a very green day today. >> reporter: yeah, the important thing is the numbers we're getting from the retailers wouldn't normally matter because they're small but are impacting very big retailers you heard about foot locker and what's going on here this was $40 it went to $15 the dividend went through the roof about 10% people buying it for the dividend are getting out what really matters is the impact on nike this is a $110 billion market. nike is selling to moderate income consumers and their sales are down the question is, is this impacting other retailers as a long-term trend. nike will normally do 6 million shares a day

it's done twice as much and it's only 11:45 in the morning. that's distribution. right there that's active selling that's going on the other thing i see here is the oil, remember the market broadening out, largely on energy stocks are doing really well that's starting to crack a little oil was $85 two weeks ago, it was 78, 79 right now these refiners like valero and phillips 66 who had this huge move to the upside, starting to crack a little we were at 140 two weeks ago, now it's 128 energy was a big part of the whole broadening story that's starting to look a little bit weaker now as oil comes down one thing that is nice, the yields down -- treasury yields is helping the banks we're talking about key corp., these companies that are essentially doing round trips. key copper went from 10 to 13 back to 10 essentially in the last month or so, what you call it, a head and shoulders top

that's another problem with the broadening out story, banks were another key component along with energy of the broadening out story. and that stock, this is one of the reasons the s&p 500 has had a tough time those kind of names, the energy and the bank names haven't been participating in any of the rallies earlier in the month carl, back to you. >> bob, we'll see you in a bit busy afternoon headed our way. bob pisani nvidia has turned positive after an opening bell dip ahead of this crucial report tonight. we'll obviously have a lot more on nvidia's bullishness and a semiboom in a few moments as analog devices also go positive today, after opening down more than 4% on the back of earnings. the company expecting to shift below end-market consumption in q4 and that might mean a halier return to inventory levels sooner rather than later stay wh itus your record label is taking off. but so is your sound engineer. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description.

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nvidia trying to pick up the space here ahead of earnings tonight. a critical print, not just to gauge ai demand, but one that analysts say the wider market is depending on to deliver. our deirdre bosa is here to break down what to expect. >> the committee question going into tonight, can nvidia do it again, deliver a blowout quarter amid sky-high expectations that's what happened last time the bears say the lightning will not strike the same place twice and they say this is a supply, not a demand story, which is a little trickier. the bulls saying that it's the

only way to play generative ai whatever happens, it will be crucial for the broader markets. nvidia is now a $1 trillion plus company and it's tangible benefits from ai, they give investors hope that other beneficiaries like microsoft and google eventually follow in terms of revenue and their own profits even if they didn't deliver ai numbers in their latest reports. the hype cycle, it could use a boost. the magnificent seven have lost steam and disappointment from nvidia can take the broader markets with it. the question, is generative ai about to fall into the trough of disillusionment? they go through a cycle. there's an innovation trigger before coming back down to reality and building up to a plateau of productivity but not

reaching the hype at the top what nvidia could help answer tonight, that peak could last for a few years. we just don't know that's what we're hoping >> i'm so glad you put that up it's a really important aspect of the whole nvidia story and of the hype machine the chip maker and tesla are taking the two and threespots in our next guest's fund they will be the leaders the next five to ten years the ceo and president ross gerber, ross, i'm sure you saw the chart deirdre showed us involving overall sentiment and how that turns into productivity

over the long run. where do you think nvidia is in the overall hype cycle and what does that tell you about expectations for their report after the bell >> expectations are high and nvidia set those expectations last quarter i caution investors to not get too euphoric about the stock because, you know, the volatility will be huge in either direction at this point i'm not sure how it will react if they beat earnings. it could go down investors should not trade around earnings in general, especially right now when you're looking at the actual business of nvidia, this couldn't be a better confluence of events for the exact type of chips that they make generative ai is a thing the public has its hands around.

when you think of real life solutions like autonomy, building things that will think on their own and do better like your car, and apply to so many other things this is just the beginning of what i think will be the decade theme. that's what my fund does and one is ai. i think this is the beginning. >> having nvidia and all of the activity surrounding this, you're no stranger to interesting aspects of the options market does that make you a little nervous when these prints come if it doesn't go according to plan >> it doesn't make me nervous because i'm a long-term investor

i've been in austin and see self-driving the technologies are incredible, really cool stuff is happening it's been a while since we've had this when you look at these like mapping and picking music that you're listening to more intelligence, there are so many areas where ai can make all the data much more useful. i expect a revolution in technology >> don't miss our breaking news coverage after the bell. live analysis from analysts, shareholders and our cnbc team coming up on "closing bell overtime." wall street's buzzing about peloton again, but not for the right reasons. record low today on these recent

pandemic darlings.

peloton down more than 20% this morning despite turning cash flow positive for q2. doesn't expect to get that again until the second half of '24, in part due to a sales slump in their hardware the pandemic darling has seen a massive fall from grace down 100% from its january 2021 highs, and they're not the only one. another earnings mover, zoom, down from its 2020 highs next week we'll hear from chewy, from february of 2021 and the pure pandemic play novavax is down 21% it will be interesting to see or hear what kind of levers peloton has, subs down 29k where do they go >> down 29k, not slowing growth but losing 29,000 subscribers. it makes you think of this whole return to work policy and all

the headlines, zoom requiring their workers to return to work -- return to the office two times a week goldman sachs, there was news yesterday they're throwing down the gauntlet, which they really have for a while now they've had people in the office five days a week but more stringent about making sure and tracking people and making sure they're in the office. it kind of feels a little back to 2019 in a way >> arguably a good thing we've been here. >> the pandemic threw a bunch of curveballs no algo could have predicted, on-demand shifts and sentiment on the consumer and you'll see companies trapped on the other side who is going to give up that growth >> people had more free time that do-it-yourself home renovation experience has fallen off a cliff.

people aren't home messing with things in their house. >> we'll brace for nvidia after the bell they're not the only ones, snowflake and splunk and hyper scalers in the demand for i.t. spin a very busy afternoon as we get ever closer to jackson hole friday to the judge carl, thanks so much welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner stocks up, yields down, and now all eyes on nvidia which reports earnings in overtime tonight the investment committee laying out what is really at stake for your money joining me for the how steve weiss, liz young, and joe terranova. let's check the markets here and show you what we're doing. yields falling back. manufacturing, pmi was weak. stocks are higher. the nasdaq is leading up 1.5%. now all the marbles, joe, are on nvidia, which you own, which you bought at the end of april in your rebalance