did they deliver right now, the stock is up better than 8.5% in overtime, as we await that call, and there are other stocks rising in sympathy super micro, a hardware maker that uses nvidia, up better than 7% we'll see what else follows. that's going to do it for "overtime. "fast money" starts now. indeed it does, jon, thank you very much. right now on "fast," nvidia's unstoppable move the chip giant posting a nearly 90% jump in revenue, a big boost in guidance, and announcing a huge buy-back. we've got the numbers, the stock poppen, and the instant analysis coming up. plus, foul financials. foot locker stinking up the joint today, the stock down nearly 30% as the retailer posted a dismal quarter and slashed its outlook again. the retail ripple effect, minutes away. and later, peloton's downhid ride rolls on. the options action on one of the monster bond etfs, and netflix

surging in the face of the writers strike standstill. good afternoon, everybody, i'm tyler mathieson, in for melissa lee, this is "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site. on the desk tonight, steve grasso, bonawyn eyeson, guy adami and katie stockton welcome to all of you. we start, of course, with that massive post-hours earning move in nvidia. the stock surging on demand for its a.i. chips, including the afterhours move. the company has gained more than $900 billion in market value, just this year that's more than one berkshire hathaway, which, by the way, is the next biggest company in the s&p 500. nvidia's call is just kicking off. our kryistina partsinevelos has more >> the options market was right. they anticipated a 10% swing and you can see the stock is up almost 10% that's because the a.i. hype has materialized into dollars for

nvidia the company posting a 61-cent eps beat, but revenues that came in at $13.5 billion versus the $11.2 billion estimated. for context, that's more revenues than the combined amount of q-2 and q-3 of last year and if we're talking about guidance, let's talk about q-3 even more impressive $3 billion above consensus, $16 billion. that's $3 billion more than what was anticipated. the last time that happened was last quarter with nvidia data center revenues, con contributes 60% of revenue, jumped 141% quarter over quarter to $10.3 billion that is the major driver for this name. the company also announcing a $25 billion buy-back there's no deadline for it the company plans to keep buying back shares this year, as well so, this blowout report is setting a positive tone for greater tech right now rival amd is trading about 2 -- oh, look at that, 7.5% higher. their chip is coming out in q-4,

their a.i. contractor tmsc up six the call has begun, we're going to be looking for comments about the investment cycle going forward, customers, they're going to keep spending, and if supply will constrain future quarters tyler? >> thank you very much guy, let's start with you. numbers don't get much better than those >> no. a lot of superlatives. i've been a nonbeliever in terms of valuation for awhile. i'll say this. actually with this guide for the quarter, they're actually sort of growing into their valuation, albeit still an expensive stock. so, they probably went from 26 times revenue, if you sort of extrapolate out the $16 billion, let's say now they're at 22, that's the good news ma margins, operating margins, 57%, same quarter last year were 20%. incredible so, all great things i mean, the superlatives, one after another. the question, of course, can this growth rate continue and is it justifiable of this valuation that we're seeing?

i've been -- i've not been a believer for awhile. >> what would change your mind to make you a believer >> well, at this point, to be honest, sometimes things just get so out of -- just so wrong on something, it's not even worth -- you start chasing now, you start doing it backwards >> bonawyn the law of big numbers here comes into play. i don't even know what the law is, but -- >> it's not this >> i respect the law but the law of big numbers says -- you can't keep compounding at these rates, can you? >> no, you can't but you're probably not buying the stock because you expect this to go into perpetuity you are -- the argument is that this thing despite its valuation around 48, 50 times, i believe it is, was undervalued given the growth they were going to have in top line and margins going forward for the next two, three years. they are still meeting less than half -- less than 50% of the demand that they actually have for these chips. and the stuff that we kind of brushed to the side, autos,

gaming, the things that we totally forgot that they do, still beat across those boards, as well. so, clearly a.i. is the driver, but give me another play, another pure play for a.i. right now. that the monetizing a.i. -- >> and that's what this is >> in today's -- >> exactly exactly. >> and they are, depending on who you speak with, and i tweeted this today, they're either 70% or 85% of the a.i. market it's theirs to lose. so, when you look at it in those terms, no one's even knocking on the door no one's even close to where they are so, bonawyn brought up some numbers. right now, a.i. is 5% of their total sales. if you look at data centers, you're at 20%. internet of things, it's 10% to 15%. this is not pixie dust this is not something that's glitter and sparkles this is happening right now. and to bonawyn's point, nobody else is monetizing it right now.

it's their game to lose and their game to lose for quite some time. how big is the market going to be 160, what? >> who knows >> put a b or a t on it, who knows what the market's going to be they're going to own 80% of it >> katie, we had, i think it was carter worth last night, showed us a chart, and on previous earnings days, the quarter last quarter, and the quarter before that, the gapup was -- you saw it right there, it was like looking at an x-ray of a leg fracture, there was the break, you saw it go up 24%, 27%. this looks like a 10% move what does the chart tell you >> it's remarkable to see a gap up after such a prolonged dove move it's what we saw from nvidia in may, also. so, we have the potential see immediate upside follow through. what we tend to do with short-term investors is to watch the gap, mind the gap. tomorrow's gap, if it falls very quickly, within maybe a week or so, back into that gap, that

usually is a short-term setback, and that might be an indication to reduce exposure temporarily for long-term holders. i can't make a compelling case against the stock. it has very good long-term momentum but before earnings, we did see a loss of momentum that was shared by many large cap tech stocks, so -- >> there was a little bit of sentiment around this table last night, you weren't here, you -- nobody -- >> i was here. >> you were awake during this part >> what part i'm kidding. >> the part where -- maybe it was you who said it, is this the -- as good as it gets for nvidia >> no. how can it be as good as it gets we haven't even started the market so, there are a lot of companies that are pixie dust, right so, there are a lot of companies that aren't capable of monetizing it. they have a backlog. can you imagine what their backlog of orders is right now their only issue is capacity

constraint >> china's buying. a lot of the chinese companies are buying their chips, right? and they've got a big backlog from china, as well, not just u.s. users >> i think those are slightly different chips, right given the sanctions -- >> some of them, yeah. >> all that does is increase demand that's another chip that needs to be manufactured and shipped, you know, that's probably a.i.-lite -- >> the sanctions >> to steve's point, it really is, they've yet to tap into. you know i've been bullish of this stock i view it through a slightly different lens it is probably as good as it gets in terms of perception, because we don't know what this a.i. boom is so, our imagination allows us to extrapolate what this market may be we will be able to actually quantify what the market ftruly looks like, and at that point, maybe we'll see pull-back. remember tesla's run tesla trades on nothing but technicals and pixie dust, we don't know the valuations, but there was no other player in

town i think it's a similar situation. >> back to your point. >> to put a finger on it and quantify what this market actually looks like, we know that they own 80% to 90% of our imagination, and that's it until you can show otherwise >> we haven't heard, or did they say anything about a stock split? they have not yaet >> buy-back. $25 billion. >> you get that next thing, sniffing around about a stock split. there's a group of investors that are waiting for that stock split for that next leg higher, believe it or not. >> yeah. we had a guy on "power lunch" earlier today, he changed his price target to $500 what is it trading at right now? 512? 517. pretty nice move there pretty good -- >> there's a price target late last week. people were racheting up for sure to katie's point, you have two gaps in the chart. you have the gap from may, from

320 to 450, now you have this subsequent gap, if, in fact, we open here tomorrow, from today's close to where we are today. you don't historically see these gaps going unfilled for a, you know, a prolonged period of time, so, we'll see how it shakes out i get all the things there are to like about this well have seen double ordering in the past, and say what you want, this is an industry that over time becomes extraordinarily commoditized they're at the ftop of the hill right now, chances are they'll stay that way, but the hill will get a lot smaller is my opinion. >> interesting point by the way, qs are up 1% afterhours for more on nvidia, let's bring in chris roland. chris, you say these results are nothing short of phenomenal. didn't think you'd get much argument >> yeah, our quote, our title of our last note was "the greatest beat of all time." and i think they stole that from this quarter's update, as well >> the greatest beat of all time i'm going to go see michael

jackson tonight, there's "beat it" in there, one of the great beats of all time. this is right up there where do you think this stock can go from here, chris? >> i mean, jensen's talked about $600 billion of eventual a.i. revenue, with 300 on the hardware side. you know, i think there's probably upside from here. upside for numbers, for probably another quarter or two, at least, to go, until we finally figure out what cruising altitude is for the hardware part of this a.i. story. >> the revenue in the most recent quarter, $13 billion, $13.5 billion, that runs out to, if you just go simple here, that's $52 billion over the course of the -- of 12 months. what do you see as a 12-month revenue run rate for this company? >> you're going to have to go a lot higher than that believe it or not, the prior street numbers are now probably

just in line with data center numbers for nvidia we did a punch of survey work, we did our preview going into this, we were super bullish, we thought data center for next year could be doing $55 billion, and my guess is after today, the buy side is going to be at $80 billion in data center for next year >> in data center. what percent of nvidia's revenue is data center revenue very high percentage, right? >> yeah, i mean, it really depends on what -- what year you're talking about, but in the current quarter, for example, you know, two-thirds of it right now is from data center. >> yeah, and as bonawyn pointed out, wasn't just the data centers, the gaming. you had a question >> yeah, chris, bonawyn here listen, we're all bulled up on this name. what we should be looking for from the sell side what are the things that should be concerning for an investor in nvidia right now

>> yeah, i think guy touched on it a little bit. double ordering, steve touched on it, bookings. so, you know, the backlog here is incredible, but the question is, is there some buying ahead and i think there ultimately is some buying ahead. this probably isn't going to come to some sort of a -- a moment of -- of, you know, a downtick, let's say. probably until mid next year, as people are clamoring one on top of another to get h-100s, to get a.i. cards, there's definitely frenzy out there right now, but given this frenzy, i can't imagine that there is double ordering taking place, as well >> all right chris, thank you very much chris rolland, appreciate that let's trade this steve, what do i do? >> so, back in may, when it gapped up, i said, sometimes you just have to hold your nose and buy the stock. and that -- that proved to be

true, and now i do believe -- i always talk about a three-day rule i do believe you have to sit back, katie touched on it before, see how it reacts tomorrow, does it fill in the gap at all, wait a couple of days, but i still hold your nose and buy the stock. >> yeah. katie, any further thoughts here >> i would just say, a better seller with the intention to revisit it after some consolidation. >> final thought, guy? >> no, i mean, congratulations if you've been on this everybody but me on this desk has been i'll say this -- you know, we've seen stories like this over the last few decades where everybody gets strode theirly excited. things do become commoditized. yeah, they have 80% right now? guess what if there's that kind of total adjustable market out there, other players will get into the space, as well you have margin compression, if we're seeing double ordering by the chinese ahead of other sanctions coming, this starts to feed on itself and the china/taiwan thing is still out there, which would potentially be catastrophic for this space, especially a name like nvidia.

>> bonawyn >> listen, i'm long, i'm going to stay long my only suggestion is put in a stop loss. you've made a ton of money here. there's no point in trying to extract an additional 1%, 2% by being cute put in a stop loss around $450 and let the thing ride >> good way to end it. thank you very much. coming up, folks, we've got foot locker getting kicked, and taking other big retailers down with it. the headlines that had investors running for the door, next. plus, the latest out of the writers' strike. what the studios are offering, and why it's just not enough all that and more when "fast money" returns, when we return in two minutes

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welcome back to "fast money," everybody. shares of foot locker falling off a cliff, after the company reported a sole-crushing quarter. get it solecrushing >> hmm >> you got to -- it suspended its dividend, slashed guidance for the second time this year. look at that falloff in foot locker blaming consumer weakness for the results. the stock dropping 28% today second-worst day on record, and hitting levels not seen since

all the way back 13 years ago, 2010 the commentary dragging shares of other athleticwear retailers lower. nike falling for a tenth day in a row, extending its longest losing streak ever bonawyn, play referee here >> yeah, bow blow the whistle maybe suspension i don't know, peds this is a tough one. you know, i know the ceo mary dillon is working on, like, a reorg. i know they moved away from nike, or, tried to diversify a bit. i know they've also had some slippage and loss from theft, and things of that nature. so, i think it's a challenging setup. i think expectations with low. to see this move is particularly concerning i think 7 1/2 times forward, it's somewhat of a value trap. you look at that, you say, okay, maybe i start taking a nibble here, but i don't really see a compelling reason, particularly after the guide down in terms of where ooud i'd be

looking, i think knenike i think sub 25 times forward earnings, you start to look at that one >> nike's still the big horse in this stable, by a long, long shot, but there are a lot more sneaker brands out there to choose from today. the hokas, you see a lot of those -- >> guy loves sketchers he'll never admit it >> sketchers >> he likes slipping on his sketchers. >> people wear sneakers -- i'm not one of those sneakers with a suit >> not a sneaker dude? >> i've started to -- >> when we -- people talk about slippage or shrinkage, whoever -- >> conversation last night. >> if someone ran into this studio and stole bonawyn's laptop, would we allow that to happen >> no. >> what's going on with retail, tyler? >> wewould stop them >> stop the theft. these stocks, though, to ban in win's point, nothing compelling

about foot locker, other than the level that it's at, it's like a fireman trade it's a burning building, somebody, the fireman has to run up maybe you could buy something and get some sort of a retracement on the way up. too early to think about that, but just on a price level -- >> katie, you are shaking your head a little bit. >> they're all in downtrends, so, now we have some gaps, of course, that -- we can keep an eye on that for those gaps to be filled, potentially, but what you're doing is putting on a short-term countertrend trade and those tend to be pretty low probability. i think it's a high risk area, and it has been for a very long time if you look at the xrt, that etf has underperformed for more than a year and it's continuing, of course, to do so with these gaps down. and so, we don't have any countertrend indications in the space yet. we don't like breakdowns, we especially don't like breakdowns when the market's rolling. >> so, the whole space, you see it as sort of infertile ground

is there a name -- >> if tim were here, tim's been saying short nike now for the better part of a month and a half it's on a ten-day losing streak. he's been right. and that probably will continue. quickly, about foot locker, and this is not good, you have inventories up 11.5%, against sales growth of negative 10% year over year, so, that means by definition, margins are going to continue to contract, so -- there's no compelling reason to be long foot locker, and then you start to do the math, means that nike's probably too expensive, and quite frankly, i'm shocked that lululemon held in as well as it did today. all right, there's a lot more "fast money" coming up. the writers' strike is in its 115th day, and hollywood studios are bringing an offer to the table. the concessions they're willing to make, and what the unions have to say about it. plus, jackson hole on the

horizon. investors on the edge of their seats ahead of jerome powell's big speech friday. what you can expect out of this year's big meeting you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.

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that the talks that were happening last week would yield progress, but now, here we are, we are back to grid lock now, last night, the wga met with the amptp's president, along with disney's bob iger, warner brothers discovery, universal, and netflix now, those talks did not go well, and then, the amptp we leased its latest proposal publicly effectively, appealing directly to the writers to put pressure on their leadership to accept the offer. now, the offer includes what the studios say is the highest wage increase in more than three decades, what they call landmark protections against a.i., as well as increased transparency about streaming data, which then can be used to figure out more fair compensation around streaming. the wga criticized the offer, writing to their members, quote, this wasn't a meeting to make a deal this was a meeting to get us to cave now, as picketing continues today, the question is whether both sides can reach a deal that restarts production in time for new shows to be ready by early

next year, and whether the studios will end up pushing back big fall films such as "dune part 2" amid concerns the box office will sufer if the stars aren't around to promote them. and the screen actors guild strike is ongoing. for the fall tv season, expect lots of reality tv, lots of sports, we're going to have to see what gets these guys back to the negotiating table. tyler? >> julia, thank you. let's trade this one around a little bit katie, any thoughts here on the entertainment business >> yeah, i mean, netflix is one that's in a long-term up trend, and it's corrected, so, it's somewhat interesting to me i don't think it's the right time from a top down perspective, necessarily, to add exposure but when we do see the correction mature, which we expect within a few weeks, i think we'll have the opportunity to go back to leaders just like netflix. >> steve >> it's been netflix, and everybody else >> everybody else, yeah. >> way off to the side but there's been two things that have really helped netflix it was the password sharing

crackdown, and the writers' strike both of those things seem extended to me this was a stock back in july that was $485. it's come in considerably, to katie's point, it has corrected. the password sharing is going to run its route, that's going to be over. the strike will, in time, be over, those were your tailwinds. i think it's time to take profit >> the strike was a tailwind why? >> they had a bunch of content, no one else had the content. they didn't have actors, they didn't have anybody writing anything and they had a lot of stuff ready. >> on the shelf, ready to go >> much more of an international presence, as well. any other thoughts here? >> productions overseas. to steve's point that 385 level sticks out. katie probably sees that, as well and it's clearly netflix's world. what i find remarkable is how miserably disney trades. even on a decent market day, can't get out of its way levels that we saw in the worst of the pandemic. it's incredible. and i was the one that thought

on their last earnings release, when they announced the fact they were raising prices, that would be it, that would be the catalyst, and it worked for about a day, but here we are, below the levels we saw before earnings >> does anybody think, as i do, that when disney announced that partnership with the gambling company that -- with espn, putting them together, that that hastened the day when disney splits off espn? anybody? >> oh, definitely. i think that's the case. but disney's had its own issues in the state of florida that has been a lid on the stock, as well there's been a lot of stuff -- a lot of issues with the parks prices are increasing, the parks number is an astronomical number, but if they can't tap into it -- back in the day, it was not a streaming company. now people only see streaming and they can't execute so, they -- be careful what you wish for, and disney just can't get out of its own way >> over/under on the number of

times the name disney comes up at the republican debate tonight? >> oh, that's interesting. >> there's your bet right there. >> ten >> ten >> that's a lot. >> i'm thinking -- >> he's making a market. >> i'll take under ten all right, folks, coming up, one day closer to jackson hole wow. and all eyes -- says right here, all eyes, you got eyes on jackson hole what fed chair powell will have to say what can you expect, and how the markets could react. we'll look at that. and some fast movers catching our eyes. a cycling slump and a f flourishing pharma stock what's behind the big swings, when "fast money" comes back. missed a moment of "fast?" follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this. and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins,

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all right, welcome back to "fast money. stocks jumping ahead of the fed's big jackson hole meeting that begins, i think, tomorrow, and really the pinnacle of it is friday, when chair powell speaks the dow climbing half a percent. the s&p posting its first 1% plus gain of the quarter that's hard to believe

and nasdaq up more than 1.5% today, bringing its win streak to three straight days the yankees can't say that shares of cloud services stock cloudflare climbing 6% today the stock getting a boost on reports that spacex is working with the firm to speed up its starlink service cloudfare up nearly 40% this year pause here for just a minute few weeks ago, i was on vacation in bald held head island, nort carolina, it was really dark my wife and i were out on the beach and we looked up into the sky and we saw this jgarland of little lights, one after another, absolutely perfectly sequenced and it was starlink, it was those satellites. how about that it was the coolest thing >> sure it was >> i thought they were aliens. i thought they were aliens more earnings reports are filtering in snowflake, splunk and autodusk jumping after their numbers closed there you see, look at those

numbers, jumping right there one market watcher we know sees upside in uber caps through the end of this year his name is chris harvey from wells fargo. chris, welcome >> thank you >> uber caps who are they why do we like them? >> uber caps, the largest stocks in the s&p 500 if we're using index, it's the russell top 50 why do we like them? they're only a 10% premium to the market, but what are you getting? you're getting better growth, better balance sheets, stability with an a.i. kicker. so, what's not to like >> so, the magnificent seven we talk about, the leading -- they would be the bell cows of these stocks >> yeah, i would say that's a fair thing to say i wouldn't use that term, but yeah >> why not >> because he made the other term up. >> all right >> i prefer cow bell >> nothing against cows here, right? >> no, nothing against cows. >> okay, good. so, you like them in terms of their valuation, compared with the market generally, and you

think their growth prospects are better >> yeah. >> how do i buy them just buy them individually or do i buy an etf in them >> i think you buy them individually there's not a whole lot of etfs that cover these, so, you do have to buy them, probably a better way to do it is individually, because there is a ton of liquidity, but at the end of the day, what i think is, many people already own a lot of these stocks, and really, this is more of an institutional. a lot of people talk about small caps, mid cap, large cap, what we want to do, we want to buy the large caps, because that's where you're going to get bang for your buck and that's what's going to lead the parade >> questions from the table for chris? anything >> sure, jackson hole. what should we be looking for? what should we expect and what should we fear >> i think it's going to be a complete nothing burger. what the fed is going to say -- what the fed should say and what the fed will say, they're going to stick to their narrative, and the narrative has been, rates are restrictive enough, they just haven't been restrike tough enough for long enough

and they keep that narrative, everything's fine, then with what we're going to see is, we're going to see uncertainty come down, market probably rallies on that, and we move on. and we start looking for the calendar, we start to look to earnings season in september and start to look at growth for 24 >> give us your, just the market -- just stop down -- uber cap stobcks, what do you think about the market >> what we were looking for, is, we were looking for rates to firm, and that would firm the equity market. we saw that. our price target is 4400, but we do think the market can get up to 46. our trading range is 42 to 46, but we think it gets over value for a period of time if we get to that higher level, we want to really start to downshift, because we don't see this great opportunity for next year we just don't see a ton of growth and at the end of the day, we think it can make a ton of money in uber caps, but it's for a short period >> uber caps your year-end target is 4420,

right now, we're at 4436, so, basically -- >> yeah, we're there, so, what we're saying is, we think it can go overvalued, we think you can get up to 46, but once you get to 46, you -- what you need to get things higher than that, you need a really, really strong recovery in 2024 and we just don't see that >> but the argument that you make is that these euuber caps would be the place where you could get some excess return >> that's right. because again, they have better growth prospects, better balance sheets, more stable, you have that a.i. kicker, and a lot of these names are still underowned by the institutional set >> chris, nothing you said, i'm going to turn to guy for reaction >> chris might agree with this, as well. there could be a scenario where the market goes sideways to lower, and his scenario being in the uber caps work what we've seen over the last couple of years, when the market does get a little squirmy, you've seen this flight to quality in all the names he talked about, so, if the market does nothing, that might work. >> katie, what do the charts say to you >> you know, the leadership

tends to lead when we come out of corrections, right? so, we see defensive sack osectr rotation, that's argue -- >> are we in a corrective phase now? >> we are, yeah, not today exactly, but we are. in our opinion but you do tend to see these large caps, the heavy weights that comprise technology, communication services, right, discretionary, all tend to outperform coming out of these down cycles, so, it makes sense to me, and i think you come up with an idea for an etf, as well >> there you go. we'll call it the ubers, right >> that might be taken >> the bell cows >> there might be a copyright issue there. >> i wonder if there's a way to squeeze out increments of yield buy, having it reive value against something else either concentrating this investment in these uber caps and then selling the s&p against that, or picking a pocket of the s&p, perhaps retail that you're less bullish on and having some short there?

i just think that being that these names are underinvested and it's hard to chase at these levels without at least freeing up cash somewhere else, and so, like, that would be something that i'd want to look into >> cool. appreciate you being here. >> thank you >> thanks for coming. all right, options traders are betting that today's move higher in the beaten down tlt might just signal the bottom for long-term treasuries kelly intelligence ceo kevin kelly joins us with the action kevin? >> hi, tyler well, heading into jackson hole, we saw outsized options trading around all fixed income etfs and the tlt is no exception. it had 1.72 times the amount of calls traded versus puts and what's interesting, is the tlt's volatility is higher than the s&p 500 right now. it has a vol of 18.27 versus just about 16 on the vix now, today, we saw the largest trades, or, the most active

contracts, were in the $98 strike of the calls that expire all the way out into october so, we saw just under 19,000 contracts traded that, it closed around 1.64, but traders are expecting to see that the tlts going to move higher, all the way through october expiration and starts with jackson hole this week. >> starts with jackson hole. let's trade this one a little bit. kevin, thank you very much who would like to take a whack at what he just said >> guy >> if you think tlt is going higher, you think ten-year yields have topped out here at 4.30ish and are headed lower, so, question you have to ask yourself, under what scenario do rates start going lower? one of the reasons today is because the data we got, the manufacturing data was miserable. so, that obviously helps yields to go lower. if the market were to sell off, you might see a flight to quality in the form of bonds, as well that makes yields go lower and the fact we held the october low, katie can speak to this, in terms of the tlt, leads you to believe short-term, we can go

higher in the tlt, lower in rates. >> anybody want to add there >> it makes sense. both yields and also tlt have come into important levels on their charts, so, if you look at tlt, there's support around 92 a big gap up today looks more of the breakaway nature, and ten-year treasury yields have run up against 434, which is resistance, very widely followed level, a natural place for a pull-back. emphasis on pull-back, not a major reversal >> if all that happens, uber cap. >> good. we're going to take a quick break. for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, we've got a pop and a drop heading your way. how to trade the jump in merck and what's pushing peloton lower? the details on those trades next. plus, we can't have a guest trader like katie stockton here for the hour without putting her to work. not that she's been slacking off. she'll go off the charts to bring us one sector that could withstand any potential market

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welcome back to "fast money. we got a buzz kill in the bike business peloton plummeting more than 22% today. it's been a sad story for that stock for the past couple of years, after reporting a wider than expected loss in its fourth fiscal quarter and a drop in new subscribers. shares of the one-time work from home darling trading at its lowest levels since its ipo in 2019 bonawyn, you admitted you own it -- >> yeah. >> you said, i'm free to kick you, i won't do that i like the bike. i got to say, i think the bike is good. >> you mentioned theft earlier, i wish someone would have come and stole these peloton shares from me. listen, i think it's a great service. i think it's a great company i think they have righted the ship in terms of focussing from a hardware company to a service company. the subscription-based model these are all the things you want to see as an investor they've just got to find a path to profitability and i have a hard time dumping it down here admittedly, i've been wrong, but i see some light at the end of the tunnel however, that tunnel gets longer and longer with every miss they

report >> a tunnel at the end of the light, maybe we'll see. >> there's a tunnel at the end of the tunnel. >> there's a tunnel at the end of the tunnel. let's move onto merck, topping the tape today, closing nearly 4% higher as momentum in health care builds up the stock has been on a slow but steady climb since reporting mixed results at the beginning of the month it's up more than 4% in august, however, so, steve, what do you make of this move? >> so, you always have to -- it's always bio tech for me, you have to think about, what's their pipeline keytruda is really the lion's share of revenues for merck. they lose -- >> cancer drug, right? >> they lose the exclusivity post-2028, so, they have to fill that with something else so, you're making a bet that they can figure out how to fill that, but people look at merck as the old stand-by trade. i think you're better off

staying clear of it until we know what that pipeline looks like >> all righty. coming up, we're going to go off the charts katie has a few correction protection plays to share with us stick around to find out what she sees working, if things start heading south. we're back right after this. what do you see on the horizon? uncertainty? or opportunity. whatever you see, at pgim we can help you rise to the challenges of today, when active investing and disciplined risk management are needed most. drawing on deep expertise across the world's public and private markets in pursuit of long-term returns... pgim. our investments shape tomorrow today.

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xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. welcome back to "fast. stocks may be positive on the year, but the august reversal has some investors wondering where to find strength now, and katie is looking at how different sectors are setting up for a market correction. let's go off the charts, katie what are you seeing? >> yeah, of course, we have seen some sector rotation with the pull-back. and it tends to lean more defensive, but it's been interesting of late, where we've actually had cyclical sectors kick in, as well energy, for one, has resurfaced as a leader this month and to me, i think we may see a little bit more of the same. what's happened is, we need yields to pull back in order to see that rotation into the likes of utilities and also -- >> this is kind of an interesting scatter diagram,

isn't it left upper quadrant is where you want to be, i'd guess, improving, right >> that's right. improving. and this is a short-term view of sector performance anything far to the right has done better than the s&p 500, which is at the crosshairs, anything to the left, consider it more oversold and it tends to maintain a clockwise rotation the cyclicality of the market is very real. and we had everything normalized there. so, you can see it sort of emerging, leadership from a sector perspective, does lean a little bit more defensive and certainly more cyclical than what we were accustomed to before >> defensive, like health care >> like health care. and i think that's the best example that we have and it's really wild, because if you look at xld, which is the health care etf, relative to the s&p 500, you'll see a downtrend that seems to be shifting. shifting to the upside now we had some rotation that appears meaningful into health

care and i think that that's one of the best sectors to position for outperformance here in the near term, as a countertrend move interestingly, if you look at the technology sector, which previously had been a source of outperformance, of course, it's faltered a little bit. it looks somewhat the reverse of health care, so, i think it's been -- >> that's the xlk, what is that? >> technology etf, versus the s&p 500. you see lots of upside momentum in relative terms there. >> and the 5200-day moving average, i don't do charts, the purple line there is the 200-day moving average >> that's right. and generally speaking, long-term, we want to stay on the right side of that 200-day moving average so, ultimately, we would expect an opportunity to resurface here with the correction in technology, for one. >> all right who would like to jump in? >> i agree on katie with energy for sure the last couple weeks, it's been sort of skittish

i think energy reaccelerates and we've tied some things together tlt bottoming out. the xlu, which made an all-time high last august, is now within a whisper of a 52-week low, so, if you do think yields go lower, tlt holds, xlu to trade from the bottom here if you're looking for a pop makes a lot of sense >> steve >> top three constituents of the xlv are unh, johnson & johnson, and eli lilly. eli has been -- >> on fire >> that has performed. unh continues to disappoint. j&j winds up hitting the wall. so, it's -- i'd rather buy the individual, i'm still bullish on eli lilly, versus buying the xlv, because it always disappoints. to the energy point, i think we're going to see the commodity rally this year. and the chevrons, the exxonmobils are as efficient as they've ever been, but those stocks are showing me nothing to

think that those individual names are moving higher. i think crude could move higher without the actual equities. >> lilly is a mounjaro story, isn't it the weight loss drug >> it's alzheimer's and obesity. >> bonawyn >> i like the health care defensive play i think over history, that's proven itself to withbe relativ true there are those three or four names that have had monstrous moves, that trade in mid 30s or higher, in terms of multiples. so, typically, alongside that health carol defensive nature, you are going to move down into what you're paying for earnings, and i think that situation just isn't the case, so, i actually do like xlv versus necessarily chasing a name that's already doubled over the last, i don't know, 12 or 18 months. as you look to rotate, or barbell with that uber names and something a bit more defensive >> katie, you get the last word.

>> yeah, merck, for one, is the fourth-largest holding of xlv. and to me, that has a very interesting technical setup. it seems to be advancing from a corrective phase with the recent news, so, i do think there's potential for them to have reform and there might be longevity to the trade, as bio tech starts to do better. >> all right, katie, thank you. >> and folks, we're going to take a positive. up next, final trades.

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welcome back to "fast. let's get another check of s shares of nvidia up by 6%, 7% 502.08 trading at what would be an all-time high if the gains hold tomorrow that is really the key here, how much of those gains can that stock hold time now for the final trade let's go around the horn, mr. grasso >> grayscale i continue to pound the table. > >> katie >> gldm. >> bonawyn >> yeah, thinking similarly, looking for defensive plays, slv. >> slv

ishares silver >> taking a break from us tomorrow, but back on friday yeoman's work. >> thank you for the coffee, by the way. >> i love you. gilead, tyler. >> all right pleasure to be with all of you thank you for steering us through the nvidia nvidia maels. "mad money" with jim cramer starts -- my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just entertainment but to teach call me or tweet me at jim