max to delay deliveries. roll the tape from three other times we said the same words eight republicans spared on the debate stage last night while donald trump tried to steal the spotlight with some guynamed tucker carlson on x we will show you the highlights. it is august, 24th, 2023 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live at the nasdaq market site in times square i'm andrew ross sorkin with joe kernen with keflly evans. i watched until the bitter end

all the way to sean hannity started his program. >> you have been waiting >> know your enemy keep your friends close and enemies closer i waited until the first 20 minutes. you know what? i know a lot of people thought it was great i thought it was interesting got me in the mood for bed >> i'm with you. >> it got progressively more provocative as it went on. >> it did. >> at the same time you were talking about it, i had a dual screen going where i was watching trump talking about if jeffery epstein was killed >> i don't know why tucker did that trump did not take the bait. we have everyone taking the bait on everything. i thought it was fascinating multiple times he kept pressing him on this. >> i can't believe i didn't see that that would be the first time in

the history he did not take the bait >> literally the first or second question of the interview. i thought to myself where am i what is going on here? >> what's tucker's angle on why he asked about epstein >> if they would kill epstein -- >> who >> the people. the deep state the establishment. they might try to kill him >> he twice asked him flat out don't you think they will try to kill you >> prighozin day >> we will get to nvidia and then to all of the other stuff which you may want to hear about or not. nasdaq futures being lifted by nvidia after net income surged 422%. overall sales grew 171%.

the stock up 8% right now. other chip stocks getting a boost from the nvidia blowout quarter. a lot more on that in just a couple of minutes. >> in case you need to know, kelly, with nvidia, if someone says what is it up from and how much is it up since the ipo and i had to figure it out the ipo was 40 cents split adjusted from 40 cents to $500. >> literally 200,000%. i was joking >> it is a big number. not like 30. >> i'm happy that jensen huang is the hottest thing on the planet it was musk for a while. there have been other people he is such a different leader and ceo. i love it. this is his turn in the spotlight. >> relating back to how it happened when a movie comes through thin air to my iphone, i think that is magic

for there to be someone who sees graphic design chips and says i can turn this into something that will make generative language and a.i., those people are so far beyond. i'm glad they did it and p pinvested chatgpt vivek talked about chatgpt i agree. that's not a bad thing >> twice he told him >> chatgpt is really good. >> two criticisms are you are cha chatgpt and one is president obama. >> i think some people could be better at what they do if they were chatgpt a lot of people. >> trying right now. they're working on it. republicans in the spotlight. eight candidates sparring for second place as the frontrunner, trump, tried to steal the spotlight with his interview on x or twitter with tucker carlson. let's bring in eamon javers with

the highlights eamon, what did we leave out we had both screens going and it felt like the first internet debate my tv and ipad and iphone going. >> reporter: that's right. we used to talk about the split screen moments this was a multiscreen moment. it was a contention just first outing for the field in milwaukee as candidates pounded each other and jockied for position as the man who leads the pack appeared on twitter instead of the debate stage. the early debate was dominated by talk of the economy nikki haley focused on the issue of the national debt and who is to blame >> you have ron desantis and tim scott and mike pence they all voted to raise the debt trumpdonald trump added $8 triln to our debt. our kids will never forgive us for that you look at the 2024 budget and

republicans asked for $7.4 billion in ear marks democrats asked for $2.8 billion. you tell me who are the big spenders it is time for an accountant >> and ramaswamy introduced himself to the audience and laid out his vision >> unlock american energy. drill, frack, burn coal. put people back to work by no longer paying them more to stay home reform the u.s. fed. stabilize the u.s. dollar. go to war. the only war i will declare is the war on the federal administrative state acting like a wet blanket on the economy >> reporter: meanwhile, where was former president trump on twitter or x in a prerecorded interview with tucker carlson.

he talked about his decision not to participate >> i'm leading by 50 or 60 points some are at 1 or 0 or 2. i'm saying do i sit there for an hour or two hours or whatever it is going to be and get harassed by people that shouldn't be running for president? >> reporter: it is not clear now if trump will participate in the next debate. that is scheduled for september on fox we will next see him at the full c -- fulton county jail where he will surrender to charges to try to overturn the 2020 election. he will dominate the headlines today and see if the other candidates can rally some most men p tumomentum back to you. >> eamon, i did not think the tucker interview would elbow its way into the room.

i found it more compelling than what was going on at the debate. i would be curious i don't know if we can get any viewership this is a pre-taped video uploaded i don't know the ultimate impact comes down to the impact at the polls >> reporter: it will be interesting to see what numbers this thing got and how that affects the debate happening simultaneously if you listen to the crowd in the room, it was supportive of trump as the candidates were split. ramaswamy saying he thought trump was the best president in the history of the united states other candidates like chris christie and mike pence suggesting trump is unfit to hold the office of presidency. one question i would like to have seen of ramaswamy is if you believe trump is best president

in the history of the country, why are you in the race? why run against him if he is so good that left unanswered on the debate stage last night. presumably some of the candidates on the stage are running for the vice presidential nomination if trump should get the republican nomination there is always the vp slot to consider mike pence will not get it >> in the world of moneyball, given some on stage were looking to raise money and if you waited until the very end, they asked -- >> who do you donate >> they asked for donations. how quickly will we see that clearly desantis is at the top of total numbers of direct dollars to him and the super pac. he is over $100 million. you get down to ramaswamy. he loaned his campaign $15

million. there are a couple of million on the other end of that. some were in between which is everybody else who are lower than that. how quickly will we know that might actually be the vote, if you will, on who won that debate last night. >> reporter: we'll see some of the numbers later today because a lot of the candidates will announce exactly how much they raised if they feel it was a big number we're in an era where it happens within minutes and hours candidates pounce on the moments and try to capture the online numbers where people click send. they were all doing that last night. every candidate was sending out the clips from the moment. i think this is one of the ones where you have to capture lightning in a bottle with fund raising online in order to make the moment >> who is first to drop out? a lot of pressure from ma

main-stream republicans saying if you have the general p ele election in sight, you have to narrow this down quickly >> reporter: it looked difficult for chris christie he is getting a lot of pushback from the crowd who likes trump b ron desantis needed a breakout moment his campaign is slagging lately. he did not have the breakout moment his campaign was looking for here there are signs of trouble in the campaigns. ramaswamy introduced himself and took ownership of the pro-trump lane >> he stole the show by baiting everybody and in a unique way. he made it about him by getting everybody come to him. >> reporter: that's the donald trump theory of politics all attention is good, whether negative or positive

that's how trump put himself at the center of the republican party. that's how ramaswamy put himself. >> trump at 146 million views, i put in air quotes, if you look at the video 146 something. that could be 146 that skrcroll by it. one second or two seconds. there is debate. maybe fox gets several million people who watched it. i did not watch this for all two hours. >> he loves to say that. coming up, this was the likes of which we have never seen maybe we have. $1 trillion. nvidia shares rising after the company reported more than 400% increase in net income revenue numbers are more staggering and outlook as well we dig into that report next

nvidia lifting the nasdaq. not helping the dow. you can figure out you are watching "squawk box" on cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by ibm. ibm. let's create u can use software to help you connect and analyze data— from hvacs to elevators to lights. what if we use ai-driven insights to pinpoint inefficiency? yep. and act on it. saving energy, money... ... and emissions. yup. that's a big one. now you've built something better for everyone. that's the sustainability solution ibm and a global real estate company created. what will you create? ibm. let's create. you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989!

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top business story this morning is nvidia shares rising after the blowout quarter. that is overused

>> what would you call it. >> a quarter of the likes we have never seen. kristina partsinevelos joins us now with more. i don't know give me a hyperbolic >> shocking. shocking >> spectacular ginorm m ginormus >> you can't make it fast enough nvidia with every adjective we can use, posted the best quarter and managed to guide above estimates to $16 billion for q3. the uptick in sales driven by gpus thousands of which stitched together to train large language models like chatgpt. that is why the business which includes the a.i. chips grew

141% quarter over quarter. i know everybody is talking about year over year, but quarter over quarter is a feat the majority of the data center sales, ya.i. chips came from the united states. this is according to the cfo and kelly pointed out on twitter because she doesn't sleep includes the export restriction in place here is the ceo. >> we are significantly ex expanding production kcapacity supply will increase for the rest of this year and next year. >> in other words, assuring investors supply won't hamper growth nvidia relies on taiwan semiconductors to make the chips. for now, it is overcoming constraints more quickly than anticipated. last quarter, we said we have

never seen a blowout earnings report like this and three months later saying the same thing maybe using different adje adjectives >> let my pick up on the china point. are they doing this without china or because of china? they can get the lower chips china is stockpiling or double ordering he seemed to dispomiss it on the call if we had no backlog, orders are a year out that is a question of how much is chinese trying to get what they can if restrictions become more severe? >> if we were to use previous quarters, it was 20% to 25% of total revenue. it was the same amount of money coming from china. it seems it hasn't jumped dramatically everyone increase orders hyper scalers is 50% of the data center orders. they would not give us details

they are never going to give us details. we are only going to see that a few quarters from now. they will try to front run orders from u.s. export restrictions >> the minute you said taiwan semico semiconductor, i thought of kyle bass he said 2050 he thinks next year. >> not just the hawks saying that. >> with the trouble china is having, that may be closer than we thought that they do something like that. they better not mess up our supply of chatgpt chips. we should have a chips act and bring it back here if we had a smart president, right >> the chips act is working on

giving out the money >> they said that a lot last night. >> to your point, china does take over taiwan, they would still need to keep the taiwanese worker workers. you can't throw in people to work on other equipment. that is the same argument that taiwan semi is making because they are bringing in taiwanese workers. i was there a few weeks ago. they have high tech machines worth over $1 million. american workers don't know how to use those machines. american workers are saying no, that is not the case we can learn and stop visas from coming in. this is the big issue at the arizona plant which is delayed because of the lack of american skilled talent if it happens, a lot of companies are screwed. >> i remember when they bought our bacon producer and i was worried.

cifus stiepped in >> the netherlands company they have a full monopoly. the whole business is that more of that >> andrew, that is not as bad as tsmc those pieces are so expensive, you are buying one in theversusc that is the higher emphasis. >> kristina partsinevelos, thank you. a fascinating 12 hours it is not helping the dow. one reason is boeing shares are under pressure the company set a manufacturing flaw on the best selling 737 max. they will have pressure on the bulkhead on the planes they were improperly drilled

shares down 2% spirit a erosystems makes the bulkhead still investors are sending shares down 7%. it is said not to be a flight safety issue models in service will remain in service. boeing is not changing delivery guidance as of now >> why does it matter? you want it right. >> investors are saying it matters. >> not a safety issue. they would know. it doesn't make me feel great. coming up, the coo of the mortgage startup better.com known for firing employees over zoom his company is going public today and happening via spac he will join us after the break because we have a lot of questions for him. back after this. (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is?

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box. better.com going public today tapping on the nasdaq. it is happening via spac merger. it has been a long and bumpy road the merger was announced in 2021 it was delayed after what was a zoom call which we will talk about that where 900 employees were laid off over zoom which created a lot of hysteria online the company has since laid off more bringing the work force down to 9% of the body count back in 2021 when the deal happened executives have resigned and s.e.c. opened and closed an investigation and foremer employees have come out against the culture. the company hits the public market and kexpecting a new envi infusion of softbank cash.

we have vishal garg with us. >> thank you for having me >> let's walk there this for better or worse, a bunch of people met you when you said good-bye to people working at the company. if you take us back to that as a way because for our viewers who are just getting introduced to the company, they knew it from that moment. what was that moment like and what did you think would happen to the company after that? >> it was a really tough moment. we had a period where we had grown from $500 million a year back in 2017 to getting to $5 billion a year by 2019 and going to $58 billion in 2021 if you can imagine this 100 x period of growth coming to a very, very crashing end as mortgage rates started to increase we needed to downsize work force which grown from 100 people to

over 10,000 people we did it in not the best way. over zoom rather than one-on-one i regret out we handled it, the decision to downsize in advance of the worst interest rate cycle in mortgage rate history was the correct one. >> i want to talk about what it means for the business with the public investors with money at stake. the other piece is that rather than raise capital privately, you decided to pursue a spac at the time, it was the way everybody was trying to raise capital. there were real questions about this is now taking two years to close effectively. whether it would close and if this was the best path and if you should walk away from the deal and could you raise capital from others and now the public which overpaid for the company how do you think about all those

things >> those are great questions of t the mortgage industry. that amount of capital is not available in the private markets. coming out of the transaction, there are 4,000 private mortgage companies. we are one of the top five companies to survive the interest rate cycle and thrive when rates go back down. >> what do you tell investors? the folks two years ago who got into this then >> i tell them that great multigenerational companies in the housing market and we're disrupting it. we're making home line loans chp hhe -- cheaper and faster >> fair to say they overpaid i say they because you cannot

get that money today >> i can't tell you in the test of time whether they overpaid or underpaid. all i can say is we are one of the best capitalized companies in the market. we are making rates cheaper for all americans. we are making home financing faster if we are able to do that, we are building a company that is val valuable >> the s.e.c. opened and closed an investigation to allow you to pursue this. they raised questions during that period. there have been instances where we see the s.e.c. investigate companies before going public and later on like coinbase, which i know is different, but how concerned are you that some of the questions raised then p m may come back? >> i'm not concerned at all. >> okay. the more than business itself. it sounds like you are saying --

is this a bad businesses >> i would say the mortgage business is the toughest levels in 20 years. >> you are going public at a time at the toughest levels ever how do you get out of that do you have to change the business model change the business? what will you do >> we have to deliver for our customers. that's what matters. if we are able do deliver what we launched, we launched one-day mortgage nine months ago and we barely spent money advertising it we think it will with change >> you say when rates fall, you will kick butt they may be higher for longer. you sound like kelly buying bonds. she needs rates to fall for it to work. >> we are levered to rates falling. we grew 10x. >> people will not buy a house it is weird. it is a double-edged sword. >> housing affordability is at a

ten-year low post-pandemic shifted. the function of house has shifted. it is not where you live, but where you work houses are more expensive because of the utility function has changed. we think you can have a recession and interest rates going lower and you can have demand for housing >> your rates are going lower within 12 to 18 months >> rate may go lower in the next six months or 18 months. i can't tell you that. >> they're going lower >> we're not going back to what i'm used to at 7% or 8%? >> western economies cannot afford 7% or 8%. >> really? >> the debt payment. >> go ahead. she was just going to buy -- buy the 100-year bond. >> i've blloaded up. >> that would be the upside.

>> what do you think fair valuation of the company is at the time of the deal was reached? >> for a company that made $180 million. >> right today, where do you think today? >> i can't tell you that all i can tell you is this is one of the few companies out there in the mortgage market that is disrupting the market. that is the last final frontier in online commerce it is dominated by paper based 60 days to close pages you have gotten a mortgage before and it was a painful experience. >> it was. >> if some company can make it better, investors will be r rew rewarded >> vishal, thank you >> i appreciate it. still ahead, take aways from the gop debate last night and donald trump's competing interview on twitter or x. we will talk to axios political

reporter coming up on "squawk box.

good morning welcome back to "squawk box. live from the nasdaq market site in times square. it is the day after. i'm not talking about that, but nvidia let's check out something important. check out the futures right now up 180 points on the nasdaq. that is because of what is

really a phenomenon at this point. >> six of the point gains this year in the nasdaq >> yeah. it is not open yet i'll not get the right market cap number almost 1.2% at the close yesterday. then pit is going up to 508. it is not 10%. you can add another 100 -- i think it is is 1.25% wow. the debate last night and key moments when candidates were asked about potential support for the frontrunner former president trump. >> you all signed a pledge to support the eventual republican nominee. if former president trump is

convicted in a court of law, would you still support him as your party's choice? please raise your hand if you would. hold on. just to be clear, governor christie, you were late to the game >> that's like i love that only asa hutchinson kept his hands at his sides chris christie wagged his finger explaining why he would not support if convicted joining us now is a political reporter for axios i have seen you on tv, steph, you were on the panel. you made the panel the other night, didn't you? that's awesome wait, you're on tv now, too. i forget that sometimes.

welcome. it's great to have you on with all that credibility what did you take from this debate >> i think the biggest surprise to me was the fact that it wasn't former president trump who was the target or governor ron desantis who has been polling in second place a long time now and going into the debate expecting to be the number one target. inn p stead it was ramaswamy it was nikki haley having her moment addressing ramaswamy. that was an interesting way for the night to have gone at the end of the day, the biggest winner in my opinion was donald trump because there was a lot of infighting on the stage not one clear candidate who came across as the one to beat trump

and with trump not being there and having his interview, he really was, you know, still driving the conversation >> we talked about it earlier that if you think -- i think what vivek said was the greatest president of the 20th century. not the greatest president in the history. that's a big statement was it reagan in the 20th century? that's a big statement if that is your statement, it almost seems like he is running for vice president you pick the guy he is talking about and if he is in the mix, why not get him? you are 38 years old with no experience if you love this guy, if you loved him the first time, why not love him the second time >> that's a good question. there is a sense of a lot of candidates on stage trying to run for the vice presidential spot. >> nikki haley, too? >> potentially, yeah

haley went after trump more than others on the stage. it is a difficult issue to navigate they know support of republican voters will stick to trump they love trump. it is a delicate dance of trying to convince voters to vote for you instead of trump without distancing the base of never leaving the former president we have seen ramaswamy being very defensive of trump over an over one of the few who said he would pardon the former president if he is convicted of crimes at the end of the day we saw the different techniques from each of the candidates when it comes to trump. ramaswamy one of the most defensive. on the other hand, chris christie and asa hutchinson being more aggressive in going after trump. >> stef, i agree with you. i don't think anybody came off the stage as a frontrunner

if it is the former president who is going to be in georgia today, i guess, for another indictment, literally can he go -- what are we talking about in terms of the possible things that could be handed down by georgia or elsewhere in the next year or so if he is now going to be the frontrunner >> these are serious charges the former president is facing federal charges and state charges as well. he could be looking at prison time the trials have yet to officially start we will have a better understanding of how these things will shake out down the road one thing to keep in mind is the georgia case is state charges which trump is facing. that means he would not be able to pardon himself for the state charges. in many ways, the georgia case is different and really important to watch at the end of the day, there is nothing, as far as we know, that will stop the former president from running in 2024 regardless

of convictions or any of the charges that he might be facing. there is also a sense that he is not only running to run the country, but stay out of any consequences he may face from some of the actions. >> now i see it wasn't the 20th century he said he said best of the 21st century. well, duh! that's not even a controversial. >> 21st? >> oh, my gosh slam dunk. i'm kidding. i don't have opinions. stef, it is good to see you. we will see you again. i was going so say something else and in georgia, bona fide republicans said you are full of crap brian kemp is the real deal. he is not mitt romney. >> announcer: final trade is

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welcome back today is the deadline for the rank-and-file members to vote ahead of the contract expiration in september we have phil lebeau with more on that good morning, phil >> andrew, this is a foregone

conclusion that you will see all uaw members to authorize a strike once the contract ends in mid-september. here is what is happening. the last week, dozens of local shops around the country shows membership to give the leadership the right to approve a strike over 90% expected to vote yes. probably 95% the results will be announced tomorrow all of this comes down to the uaw and if they can take the benefits or pay package depending on the big three automakers between $63 to $67 a hour you see the comparison to the foreign automakers and well is what is estimated by tesla line workers. uaw, if you look at the demands, it comes down to a 40% raise through 2027, including immediate 20% bump once the contract is approved cost of living adjustments, job

guarantees and they want a 32-hour workweek no more 40-hour workweek they believe this is a quality of life issue for membership unlikely they will get all of thre these or a portion of these. they will get some increase in pay or whether or not the cost of living goes through the sahares of gm, ford and stellantis increasing inventory. we will see a stroike with one automaker or all three or transmission shop to choke the lines elsewhere. that remains to be seen. >> phil, i want to switch gears and take you to the boeing manufacturing issue that we have been talking about and reporting on early this morning. you have been spending time trying to dig into it. what should we take away from it >> it's not huge at this point

and it depends how long they delay near-term deliveries of 737 max. they have spirit aero issues in kansas with are not conforming t they should be and we're talking about within the bulkhead, some of the holes that were drilled were not in conformance. the question becomes how long are these near-term delays if this is a relatively short inspection, and fix, and you see them keep their full-year delivery guidance in check, then you're going to see not a huge impact if they have to change their full-year delivery guidance, that's a much bigger deal. >> phil, thank you we're going to talk retail sector picks after the bak arend talking to phil more about boeing throughout the day. back after this. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help!

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welcome back, everybody. it has been a busy week of earnings for retail companies and we learned a lot about the consumer and some higher performers we also learned a lot about the -- why does it say current -- our guest is kernen >> it is i saw you and thought -- >> it is joe, not john >> john kernen is with us this morning, research analyst covering retail and consumer brands good morning, john i'm glad we're trying to highlight the positive here but there hasn't -- let me ask you about this abercrombie and fitch puts up incredible numbers again for the quarter. why are they unaffected by shrink or theft. why would people steal from the less popular brands but not abercrombie? >> we don't cover abercrombie, but shrink is something you hear on every earnings call at this point. we have a real societal problem, well over $100 billion epidemic in terms of lost goods, it goes

beyond that because there is more security in stores. the in store experience gets degraded and it is expensive to protect against. we have a real problem here. i think you'll probably see them start to lobby law enforcement, our government on this national and state level because we have a problem that is pervasive across the sector. >> do you agree, i heard one of the retail analysts on worldwide exchange saying ulta could -- we'll hear from ulta soon, not that they're in your coverage universe either, but that that might be another place that we could see this problem show up the names you like here, tjx and the like, are they affected by shrink as well >> they have been but they accrued against it last year so we think they're on a pretty good place and tjx just reported earnings a couple of weeks ago, stock hit an all time high the valuation multiple is a little elevated versus this history but we think there is upside, 9 $98 price target is 23 times next year's earnings

they're delivering value to consumers. the company's returns on capital have never been higher this is a secular winner. >> did you say over $100 billion in market cap? >> over $100 billion in market cap, one of the real winners in all of the last three and five years? >> $103 billion. macy's is a $4 billion company and tjx is $100 billion larger than that. that's unbelievable. >> a lot of billions. >> yeah. $3.5 billion for macy's after this week. what is happening in retail as we move through earnings season? what are you learning about -- we have some people telling us foot locker, macy's, dick's, the consumer, we saw softness in july is there anything macro going on here or is it operational? >> there is a lot macro going on and there is a lot operational going on a bifurcated sector, real outperformers and real underperformers. i think the two key things we think that are resonating for the outperformers, we talked

about one of them, tjx, value and convenience, tjx and ross stores lead in that. the second theme is product innovation and total addressable market and tam that is growing, l lululemon and deckers. >> uggs still a thing? >> the key franchise and new innovations are being carefully segmented by channel, and hoka is the highest margin business, as hoka grows -- >> you wonder, all birds of one school too john, thank you very much for joining us this morning. we appreatcie it the other kernen, no relation. "squawk box" will be right back. squawk picks is posponsoredy

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good morning nvidia results fueling excitement around a.i., a breakdown of the blowout quarter and the impact on the sector it is all straight ahead. and battling for the spotlight. republicans taking the stage in the first presidential debate. former president trump takes to x. reaction to it all from new hampshire governor chris sununu. a new docu-series coming to apple tv plus, escape of carlos ghosn,

the mastermind behind the rivian extraction the guy who got him out and the director of the series as well as the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm joe kernen with andrew ross sorkin and kelly evans thank god we're at the nasdaq where things are happening, not down at the other losers -- >> no. >> you start with so much drama. >> nvidia is such a story, though and the dow is down and nvidia is up 200 points we are -- we can be proud of where we are we got a fishbowl of the entire world, times square, the center, named after your beloved

employer, yeah so embrace it. >> times square. named for a reason. >> named for, you know that? >> i knew that, yes. i knew it was -- >> financial times, the london times. not "the new york times. look this is where the action is. up 181 points. >> look at that. >> pretty staggering and then i hope you didn't buy a four on the ten-year, you're already down. >> i didn't buy the ten-year, i was buying t-bills >> nowhere to go in a year. >> i'm not trying to reinvest in treasury opportunistic. >> all right >> there is the two-year, back below 5% the ten-year, 4.2%, and the 30, 4.27 to frank holland with a look at this morning's premarket movers. it is not bonds today. >> it is definitely not bonds. good morning, kelly. andrew and joe, good to see you as well. shares of boeing right now, they're falling in the premarket, down just about 2% after boeing says there is a new manufacturing defect in its best-selling 737 max jet that would delay some near-term

deliveries as it conducts inspections to figure out the number of planes affected and what is exactly needed to fix that issue the company says the problem is linked to contractor spirit aerosystems and improperly drilled fastener holes but the company says only a portion of planes are expected to be impacted shares are down just about 2%. also in tech, shares of splunk, jumping this morning on a q2 earnings beat, revenue rising by 14%, driven by the company's focus on innovation and a.i. adoption the company boosting its outlook for the rest of fiscal 2024. those shares up almost 14% now in the premarket retail wins in sonoma moving higher after an upgrade to neutral, price target of 146 shares are trading at 144 now, up 1.5% in the premarket right now. in earnings, sales came in below expectations but margins were stronger than expected, making a downside scenario much less likely according to analysts.

they also said limited discounting will protect pricing power long-term for williams and sonoma shares up almost 1.5%. kelly, back over to you. >> another retailer to keep our eyes on, frank thank you. >> nvidia shares rising after a big quarter for the chipmaker. revenue and earnings per share incredible $6.7 billion in net income a 422% increase over the same time last year joining us now to talk about the results, vivek aria, bank of america security senior semiconductor analyst. i was racking my brain to think of some -- of a historical analog to this and i can't really come up with one. it is almost like this is truly a quantum leap or a -- i don't know, something happened, something changed to get a 442% increase and i've never seen the adoption like this i know that they say that big

advances, that the time between them is narrowing. like timed dilation or something. that's one of the basic tenets are you surprised at this? >> good morning, joe good to see you. i would say that, you know, we are at the start of the transformation of the computing industry for the second time if you remember a few decades ago we saw the transformation of the data center from main frames to x 86-based server computers now the problem is that we have had such growth of data and now at the front of this large new workload called generative a.i. using large language models that those traditional servers with the traditional cpus do not scale, it has to be a rethinking, reimagination of almost a trillion dollars of data center infrastructure there. and nvidia is at the forefront very unique in the combination of silicon, software, systems, expertise, a range of partners, and we think it is very early

stages of going through that transformation you know, we describe it as a.i., but a.i. is one of those applications that could run on this accelerated infrastructure. so we think we are in early stages, number one it is almost a trillion dollars of infrastructure that needs to be converted number two, and the third very important thing that i think sometimes gets lost is the amount of leverage that the company has. their sales grew over 100%, operating expenses almost grew 5% and the reason is that they have been at this for the last decade, which makes it very hard for a new competitor to just come and beat them, right, by launching just another chip. this is not just a chip game you have to bring together all those components of silicon software systems scale and nvidia is uniquely positioned which is why the run the stock has had, and it is cheaper today on a forward basis than it was yesterday and it was at the start of the year and it is cheaper than its five-year

forward market we think this can continue, the growth momentum can continue because we're in early stages of this conversion. >> that was like a symphony, listening to you that was really -- so we're really seeing a complete mass migration to a new type of server from the x 86, which transformed the entire world when that happened so, can you think of a company similar in the past? was google's algorithms, is that something similar? you have a ten-year head start, you got almost a natural moat just because the technology itself is so complex, and takes so much time to develop, when do you see a viable competitor being able to emerge and what would that take? >> sure. you know, it is interesting that the last time we saw this transformation, we saw the move from ibm to intel.

and intel ruled for a number of decades and it was very hard to displace them because in the semiconductor industry, a scale matters, incumbency matters because you're not just creating products on a six-month cadence. for all the products that nvidia is launching and coming out with this year, the design of these products started to two years ago the software frameworks that are underlying these products started five or ten years ago. that's why you don't just wake up and launch another product to compete with a leader. so i think we saw intel have this dominance for a number of decades. and now i think it is nvidia's turn and nvidia is basically where intel was several decades ago in this transformation what i think the technology from here to some extent is the ability for the cloud players to monetize this new computing paradigm because their spending is not growing as much it is special on top line. they have to find new and

innovative ways to monetize this technology, go from advertising-based models to more subscription-based models. those things will unfold over the next few years what is clear is that they have to outfit the data centers with the new computing technology. >> i don't know if we can show a 30-year stock chart of cisco that company trickled its revenue from 1997 to 2000, from $6.5 billion to $19 billion, the stock went up 10x, then revenue flatlined 2000 to 2003 and cisco lost 70% of its value thereafter, you can go back further if you can, i don't know if you can show the late '90s. but so we -- and i saw dan ives making the comparison there, you can see the -- it coming back down in the early 2000s. so when ives is saying this is the 1995 moment, well, we all know that dotcom frenzy had two sides to the story so it is already a $1.2 trillion

market cap, there is the spike you can see in cisco in the late '90s as its revenue exploded and what happens to investors who while you're absolutely right about the fundamentals for nvidia, they don't want to get in another cisco situation where they buy the stock at the peak of the excitement about the growth story >> right kelly, it is a fair point, interesting, during those times i was working in the telecom industry i lived this firsthand and what is different this time and i know it is always risky to say it is different this time is that a lot of the spenders at that time were the competitive local exchange carriers, but a lot of business plans which in hindsight were not really fully baked. look at who is driving the spending now it is really strong. major u.s. cloud players, right, very well funded, multiple sources of capex to drive this, number one and number two, it is enterprise enterprises have a lot of data that is just sitting there,

right, with no ways of getting insight. so, again, we call it a.i., but what is a.i. at its heart? it is driving insight from a lot of data. so i think that is the big difference between what happened right back in the dotcom bubble, that the people driving the spending were half baked business plans and the thinking was just build it and they will come i think where we are today is there is a lot of money being spent by people who are a lot more thoughtful, who have a big base of revenue to grow from to drive this computing infrastructure so i do think there are differences. and number two, what we have seen consistently is that in the technology industry, the value shifts from the systemmakers toward silicon and software, right? and that is why we think that companies that are working at the semiconductor level have historically tended to have very extended ways of perfecting their competitive mode. >> it would be great news for a lot of the people who still hope

there is going to be excitement and gains left in the stock at 511. thank you for joining us. >> i'm trying to figure out, you got -- what are you? are you a ph.d.? do you -- i think you might have a -- do you have a ph.d. >> yeah, good old days >> good god. i was trying to figure it out. you're ii ranked and -- >> there is another vivek on the block here when i say vivek, i don't necessarily mean the guy from last night vivek, thanks. >> thank you for having me. >> okay. you're welcome see you later. that guy >> impressive. >> i was prompted to look him up just to see and, yeah, there is three letters behind that. >> he knows what he's doing. check out shares of petco reporting adjusted earnings and revenue coming in as expected. pet supply retailer reaffirming its revenue guidance for the full year. joe, is this your -- is this where you go, petco, is that where you buy your -- we're

petless at the moment. >> all politics is local i go to the closest place. but i overpay, like you can't believe for kibble >> we should say shares falling right now 10% off the company slashing its earnings guidance from 24 to 30 cents a share, down from 40 to 48 cents a share. i wonder whether that's an operational issue or actually maybe speaks to what is happening in -- is that a consumer, economic issue >> if you can't make money selling pet food -- >> and chewy and all the -- >> i think it is online. >> okay. >> sold in public again. anyway, you would think if there is any stalwart part of the market, dollar tree also reporting. here we go earnings revenue, same store sales all topping estimates. the shares are still down 3.5% premarket as they see earnings for the current quarter, guidance coming around 94 cents to a dollar a share, about 20 some cents below the estimate of

$1.27. they said and they talked about this last quarter that elevated shrink or theft continues to pressure margins we heard that from several retailers this season. the shares are down 17% in the past year. coming up, presidential hopefuls stepping on stage for the first time, trying to boost their campaigns, their pocketbooks and bash their rivals >> hold on hold on. >> i've had enough i've had enough already tonight of the guy who sounds like chatgpt standing up here and the last person in one of these debates who stood in the middle of the stage and said what's a skinny guy with an odd last name doing up here was barack obama and i'm afraid we're dealing with the same type of amateur standing on stage tonight. >> you'll help me elect me just like obama >> isn't that a double compliment chatgpt and obama? they're fairly -- >> kind of

>> we'll talk to chris sununu about that from big cities, to small towns, and on main streets across the us, you'll find pnc bank. helping businesses both large and small, communities and the people who live and work there grow and thrive. we're proud to call these places home too. they're where we put down roots, and where together, we work to help move everyone's financial goals forward. pnc bank.

bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright.

xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back to "squawk. want to bring in new hampshire governor chris sununu, you're at the table this morning, stayed up late last night to watch the

fireworks. >> there were fireworks. that's what people wanted to see. >> what was your takeaway as you were watching all two hours? all two hours? >> a couple of things. people saying there is no clear front running candidate, there were eight people on stage, no one had more than 12 minutes if you were waiting for one person to emerge, that wasn't ever going to happen the problem for donald trump is the field is winnowing there were a few candidates there that, you know, asa and doug burgum and tim scott, they're great candidates, they need to inject themselves in the conversation. >> and you think they did not? >> they got eight minutes of time pence and nikki haley captured the moment haley had 8 1/2 minutes of speaking time but took advantage of that. give her a lot of credit. >> what about desantis i was surprised there wasn't a lot of attention. >> that's right. and that was governor desantis' opportunity, he looked right at the camera, he was clear, he was concise, i think he looked very presidential he wasn't being attacked and that gave him a lane to really make his case directly to the -- >> i saw the first -- he got the first question and i thought he

did well on the first question, but then in reading the commentary after that, that was his best moment. >> i don't think so. i think, again, he was -- everyone thought he was going to get attacked and it all went against vivek. i think mike pence and nikki haley reinvigorated their campaigns. they were quiet. >> what did you think of the vivek -- vivek's ability to bait the entire stage to focus on him and whether attention, maybe for attention's sake is a good thing or not >> it is a good thing for vivek. he's one of the more unknown candidates he took a lot of shots but this is what you want. i've been on a lot of debate stages you want, first, not to melt down, don't have a rick perry moment make sure you're talked about at the end, which he is and you want to make sure you get some of the most time, which he did so for an unknown candidate to capture in those -- i think he did what he should have done he should be happy he got attacked a lot.

he should be happy. >> what about the guy not on the stage who, by the way, for the first hour was almost unnamed. no name checking we were talking about how on our phones or ipads or other screens, some of us were trying to watch a little bit of the x interview, which started with, you know, whether jeffrey epstein had been killed or not >> what was the answer >> he did not take the bait. he didn't -- >> we still don't know >> he said he probably killed himself. >> it was a bill barr question about whether bill barr was actually doing the work that should have been done to investigate, that is sort of the other piece of it. >> off the top >> right at the top. >> the first question is why are not -- the second question, do you think jeffrey epstein was killed >> just handing trump conspiracy theories is like handing candy to a -- and he'll run with it. >> he didn't run with it. >> like candy to a kid, he ends up spazzing and going 100 different directions

no one was more upset about trump not being mentioned in the first hour than trump. he wanted the debate to be about him. the only two ways people say, trump won the debate not true if they talked about trump the whole time, he would have won the debate if everyone fell flat, he would have won the debate. but they showed, like, four candidates in the middle, really showed some life and some fire. >> you're in the money ball business, to say that you have to raise money in this universe. what do you think the big money is saying this morning are they sending checks to desantis are they sending checks to nikki haley? are they sending checks to vivek? how does this work >> nikki and pence's campaigns are more invigorated desantis is already very well with money that's the future of the republican party without trump and that's exciting, to the money. most of the money isn't behind trump. the big money donors and all that, they want to see a future without trump and they saw that.

if it gets down to one on one, trump loses. he has a very high floor at 32, 33%. but for an incumbent -- former president, he has -- >> you think he will ultimately sit on a debate stage or stand on a debate stage with -- >> he has to he has to. eventually his numbers will start ticking down and he's going to have to get on the stage. he won't like they really start attacking him and like i said, if it gets down to one on one, that's where he's in real trouble. he may capture 47% of the republican vote -- >> you're saying one on one against biden? >> no, against another republican his fear is they have the discipline to winnow it down, which is what -- >> but if it is him and vivek, who loves trump, what happens? >> it will go to vivek people want a new face they'll see trump 2.0 in him and they'll want a new face and go there. they'll do that with desantis and almost any of the candidates and all of them can beat biden. >> larry ellison said he would give eight figures to tim scott, maybe. >> yeah, i don't know for sure but -- >> you think last night maybe was -- >> no, look, tim is still --

he's a great candidate he knows his stuff he didn't interject himself. he had to show a little more energy, but there is lots of debates. next few weeks we'll see more and more -- >> do you think nikki haley could catch fire >> absolutely. she woke everybody up. she showed she has fight in her. she put vivek in his place in a couple of -- >> if he's minus 32, for starters, and you know it is 32, you mentioned that 32, he's minus that 32, they'll never support him. >> he has a ceiling. he definitely has a ceiling, no doubt. he's one of the most well spoken statesmen. >> what is your problem? are you running for senate >> i'm not running for anything. >> you know what you would be great at, cnn. >> i would be great at cnn >> balanced, they wouldn't hate you, like -- >> i like cnn. i like them all. >> so you -- yeah.

i got you. so you like cnn? >> sure, i like cnn. >> if you're not running for office, that's what all politicians do when they're not running for office. >> i'm a business guy. i'm a business guy temporarily in politics. >> would you prefer cnbc contributor or -- >> i'm not look for a gig. look, i just -- i have my opinions, i'm a little brash, i suppose. >> you're well spoken. you're very handsome and young not as young as the picture we showed, but -- >> if you want to be good at politics, you got to understand business and economics and how it all works and some of us kind of get that. >> you should be an advertisement for -- >> you're the only person i met with three us in a name. >> we'll do math later. >> you did go to m.i.t. >> thank you appreciate it. >> cnn. >> "squawk box" returns right after this time now for today's aflac trivia question. what was microsoft's largest acquisition? e sw wn cnbc's "squawk

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my cpa told me i wouldn't qualify for the erc tax refund, so i called innovation refunds. their team of independent tax attorneys will work with your cpa to determine if your company is eligible. [whip sound] take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. what was microsoft's largest acquisition? the answer, linkedin

microsoft acquired the professional networking company for $26 billion. still to come, the federal reserve's jackson hole summit kicking off tonight. we're going to take a look at what to expect from fed chair jay powell's speech, what it says about the economy's road ahead. plus, a new documentary series detailing former nissan ceo carlos ghosn's arrest and subsequent escape from japan is out tomorrow we're going to talk to the director behind the project. plus a man who hid the executive in a cello case, i think it was, right? >> a big music box. >> not a cello case? you're watching "squawk box. this is cnbc

the long awaited sale of subway, the sandwich chain, is official selling itself to rourke capital, owner of arby's and

buffalo wild wings terms of the deal were not disclosed. reuters reported earlier this week that the price tag would likely top $9 billion. subway has more than 20,000 u.s. restaurants and 37,000 globally. >> wow >> yeah. >> they also own -- roark owns orange theory and primrose school, preschool. >> an architect. >> don't even. futures this hour, let's get a quick check where we see the dow under pressure because of issues at boeing with their dreamliner again. it is down 10 points premarket the s&p is up 28, though and the nasdaq is flying, up 190 points, powered by nvidia's 7.5% share gain after results last night. now we turn our attention to jay powell, the fed chair giving his speech tomorrow at jackson hole. here to discuss, kristen bitterly, head of north america investments and brett ryan with us as well, senior economist at

deutsche bank. welcome to both of you i don't feel like i'm ready to talk jackson hole yet. we got to talk about nvidia and the -- there is so many other cross currents right now i don't know if you want to comment on that. how much oxygen is nvidia suck out of the room right now or delivering, i guess, to put it differently? >> these are the two catalysts for this week, nvidia earnings which i know you tried to find different hyperbolic terms earlier this morning but i think perfection is probably is, right? nvidia delivered and then looking at jackson hole, i don't think we're going to get a lot out of jackson hole. i think what investors want to see are a couple of things one, higher for longer as you mentioned anything related to higher for longer. i don't think he's going to touch the neutral rate i know we're trying to break that down and understand what that means for cuts going into next year. i don't think we're going to get much there, since the conference is called structural shifts in the global economy, i think we make it something on housing a little bit more, what's going on in the housing market and trying to understand the dynamics that are not that

intuitive there. >> do you think that the rate hikes -- this is going to sound -- look that they're doing to the housing market. they're making it inflationary because there is no inventory and prices are doing what they're doing even with mortgage rates. i don't know if that's what they wanted >> yeah, well, with housing, that's where the immediate impact of monetary policy was felt you saw rates go up and immediately you saw the reaction in terms of mortgages, refinancing, all the transaction volumes all fell they're all stabilizing now at the moment i think with powell's speech, what he's going to try to do, given the july 26th messaging, there is not much he can say about the near term path of the -- of the rate path. he's also -- as kristen mentioned, going to want to try to avoid our star types of conversations that are quite sensitive to the market at the moment however, what i think he could talk -- touch upon is inflation and reset the inflation views. >> do you think policy is restrictive right now? is that -- is there any -- do people debate whether it is

restrictive enough because of what the economy is doing? is it? >> the economy is resilient to 525 basis points of rate hikes thus far can't -- that's undeniable however, the monetary policy, the headwinds facing the consumer coming up very shortly, waning savings, student loans coming back, those are about to hit, they haven't gone away. so i would hesitate to say that, you know, the -- there is a need to do more it is now the conversation shifting to how high -- how long as kristen said do we stay here. and i think the inflation story with powell, remember in 2021 he came up with the transitory speech that was, you know, proved to be quite widely ridiculed. now it is a good time to kind of reset that -- the chair's views on inflation i think that makes sense. >> i like reading richard kuhn

because he's so un. unorthodox in many ways and when we hear the liberty street about -- is it because the way the global financial system works now that hikes just don't have the impact they once had? you keep hearing this, well, the credit markets are so strong and the financialization globally and that's why -- i don't know or are we trying to explain away something that in six or 12 months time will look very different and obvious to the slowdown. >> every month it feels like we're in a different type of regime so the conversation changes really quickly i think right now, though, chair powell's in a position where the tightening that we have seen given the rise in longer dated rates, whether that's attributed to his actions or not, it is attributed to a couple of different things, the resilient data from a u.s. growth standpoint, the relaxing of yield curve control, and it is also because of the abundance of issuance that has come to market and will come to market. in that, i think you can take advantage of that and could

still maintain a slightly hawkish message until we see this materially come through within some of the indicators. >> did we learn the fed and the rate hiking cycle doesn't necessarily kill tech stocks nvidia, if you do something -- you power through multiple concerns doesn't matter -- >> it is a great question. i was in the camp earlier this year, it doesn't make sense, right, because of the rate sensitivity. i think what we have learned, though, is when you look at the free cash flow generation of these companies, it is more about the free cash flow generation and who is in a position that actually you're not interest rate sensitive, you can fund and fuel your oath growth and innovation. >> your multiple goes from 20 to 19, if your e is 40% higher, what difference does it make if it is 19 instead of 20 >> people are hiding out within those positions. >> thank you we appreciate it this morning. coming up, a new apple tv

documentary about the escape of carlos ghosn set to make its debut. we'll speak to the man who planned and executed the actual extraction of ghosn. and the director of the series "squawk box" will be right back.

welcome back nvidia posting blowout earnings and guidance are we witnessing sustainable usage of a.i. in business or is this the inflation of an a.i. bubble the hype cycle, jon fortt here to weigh in. what is it, jon? >> i know people betting against nvidia, don't want to admit that this morning because before earthi earnings, the stock tripled year to date. they cleared the bar by beating sales expectations by more than a billion dollars, it invited investors back to the bar and bought a round of drinks offering guidance that beat expectations by more than $3 billion. if nvidia had crushed expectations like this just once back in may, maybe that's a fluke. now this is twice. and the ceo says he feels confident about demand heading into 2024. for this a.i. wave to be a

bubble, we probably have to see a significant dropoff in demand, sometime in the next couple of years as the market digests the hype instead of waving demand for artificial intelligence, we're seeing mature. companies will slow the purchases of a.i. chips that help build large language models, but there can be guesses about the future and nvidia will have advantages in this inferencing world too. a.i. is here to stay, andrew. >> but there are reports and some people are stockpiling a.i. chips now because they're in demand like beyonce tickets. this can't go on forever >> well, andrew, on the other hand, we are in an a.i. bubble the question isn't whether it is going to pop, it is how soon already we have companies buying a.i. chips they don't need because the chips are in short supply and they don't want to be left out snowflake ceo frank slootman told me last night, his company is buying more nvidia chips than they know what to do with. what happens next? the market is going to have to pause and digest this oversupply of a.i. chips. might not happen this quarter or

next, but some time in 2024. it is coming at that point we'll start to get a sense of what customers are actually using it is not that a.i. isn't an important business trend, it is. this is just a moment like 1999 for the dotcom era where the potential is clear, but the business models aren't the software is going to have to get time to catch up we're going to have to hear the case studies of how a.i. customers used the technology to outsmart the competition then we'll see the a.i. leaders across every category, not just chips, start to separate from the laggards, and we'll be ready for the amazon and the google of a.i. >> okay. we have an anniversary here, though beyond all this, which we want to mark the end of august, which means it is now three years since the very first on the other hand >> three years. >> jon, happy anniversary. thank you for bringing us both of these very balanced hands >> where does the time go? >> i know. it was a very different time

then not only were we in the depths of covid, which i finally got last week, that wasn't great, i avoided it for three years and got it, so first, yeah, that's why i missed it last week, on the other hand but three years ago we didn't have the on the other hand newsletter now we do. a sign of progress for the whole economy. there is the qr code on the screen or type in cnbc.com/otoh, easy access to the weekly poll on linkedin, weigh in, let me know which side of the arguments you agree with more. so, results from the most recent topic, does the fitch ratings signal a top for stocks? 78% said no. 22% said yes that was three weeks ago we'll see. we'll see where we go from here. people are excited about nvidia. >> all right great. thanks, jon. happy anniversary. coming up, a new docuseries released on apple tv plus, telling the riveting story of

ceo-turned fugitive carlos ghosn. doesn't narrow it down that much we'll speak to the man who d anned his unbelievable escape anthe director of the series next stay tuned has everything you need to gear up so you can show up. ♪♪ with the widest selection of shoes from the hottest brands like nike, jordan, on, hoka and new balance. plus, trending styles from crocs and adidas. when you can't make it to the store, dicks.com is always an option. and, with our best price guarantee, if you find a lower price, we'll match it. with looks this good, it's never been easier to sport your style. ♪♪

bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright.

xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! that's what i'm talking about. [ cheers ] running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. ghosn's biggest problem now is judicial system doesn't forget >> when you say there is a crime, you say, okay, who is the victim

there is a victim through the whole story. it's me. >> apple tv plus set to premiere the new series "wanted: the escape of carlos ghosn" showcasing the professional journey, shocking arrest and daring escape from japan mike taylor, the architect of ghosn's getaway, in an instrument case, and ghosn himself are featured in the film joining us right now is james jones, director of the series. michael taylor is with us as well, former green beret good morning to both of you. i have to admit, i watched the -- i got a copy of the screener thinking i would watch it, over, i don't know, a week or two or something like that. and, james, i literally binged the whole -- i couldn't stop watching and i couldn't stop watching mike who is such an instrumental part, obviously, of this remarkable series. let's go back in time for a moment, james, to help set the table for those who may not know the carlos ghosn story what interested you in this from

the get-go >> i mean, i think the moment i became really aware in depth of the carlos ghosn story was when he escaped in a box. headlines all over the world, one of the world's most successful business executives smuggled out of japan in a music box. and, you know, that has hollywood movie written all over it but what was enticing to me as a kind of journalistic filmmaker was that the more you scratch away at the story, the darker and more twisted it becomes. and so it felt like the kind of story that spending, like, a couple of years of our lives digging into it would, you know, pay off rewards and end up with a good -- a great series. >> before i get to mike, i have one big question for you, james, and i know i think you're trying to leave it to the viewer to decide, but at the very top of this segment, we showed a clip where carlos ghosn himself talked about himself as a victim and i'm so curious what you actually think yourself. was he a victim?

there is points in this where you clearly paint him as potentially such, but there is other points at which he may not be a victim at all >> yeah. i mean, we pose the question, victim or villain. and i would or villain there's no doubt tquestion he w victim during that investigation they had stumbled across much, much more serious allegations against carlos stone for proper corruption until he goes and faces trial in france or japan, he can't really dismiss that label >> mike, let's talk about your own journey because it was a wild one, both in terms of helping carlos ghosn, planning

his extraction, getting him out and then yourself going to prison with your son for doing so in the most horrific circumstances. take us back to the beginning of that, which is how did this happen for you how did you decide to do this and what did you think was at risk when you did? >> well, i originally got a telephone call from a mutual contact, carlos and i and his wife, carol, and asked me to help out i'd done this before for many people, people who were abducted and taken overseas who we had warrants for and custody issues so this wasn't anything new. the planning of it and the operation was very smooth. didn't take that long, about six months the operation just went off perfect. and during that planning of it, we researched if there was a

violation of law and all the legal counsels that we've spoken to and did the research and what not all said it was not a violation of law because bail jumping in japan is not a violation. there's no violation on law if you bail jump in japan so aiding and abetting, if you will, somebody jumping bail is not a crime. it's only a crime if you break somebody out of an actual custody situation like a jail or a prison cell or the back of a police car then it's a violation of law but carlos was out on bail so it was no violation of law. then it turned into the issue of japan requesting being tradition and it was trump and pompeo that sold us out. it wasn't for international justice, it was clearly political. they knew very well we would be tortured if we were and, in

fact, we were tortured >> before we get to that because that itself is a remarkable story. just take us back to being in the airport as you are literally pushing him, carlos ghosn in a music box past the security guards and you describe it in the series and they show it because you have footage of it actually as it's happening and you have carlos ghosn also narrating that part of it. as that was happening, what did you think could happen if you were caught in that moment >> well, i had done the vulnerability assessment of it and i was very confident, 100% confident actually, that we would not be exposed and it wouldn't be. there was no locks locks generally make people look like oh, there must be something important in there so let's open it up. i didn't lock the box. all they had to do was flip the

switch and open the lid. they didn't do that. their standard operation policies are so rigid that they don't deviate whatsoever they're very robotic in that sense so it was really a no brainer in going out that way. >> i don't want to give away too much of the ending of this but one of the major turns for me as a viewer, mike, what was seemed like a fabulous relationship that you had with carlos and somebody that you believed in and it seemed like you were doing this in part because you believed in him. of course you ever went to prison and then it appears that your relationship changed very distinctly >> well, you know, my son ended up spending 30 months in prison and he was essentially doing search engine and opt miization. he had nothing to do with the operation. in fact, he wasn't even in the country when i pulled carlos out. so, again, it was a political

thing. of course any parent doesn't want their child punished, something for something they didn't do. but the relationship itself took an interesting turn. you know, i've spent about $842,000 out of pocket just for legal fees and there's still several million more that need to be paid so that's still a -- >> and carlos is not supporting you? >> well, i still have those legal fees that are outstanding. we can say that part >> but has he paid you have you been paid for the work and the cost of all of this? putting aside the legal fees but i would have thought a family of means like this, given what you did for him and -- that you would have gotten money, you would have been paid to do this. >> yeah, if it was me i would have made sure the person that saved my life was squared away

but i still have outstanding legal fees >> do you think he's a victim? >> do i think he's a victim? i think he was a victim initially because they arrested him based on what limited information i know, they arrested him on a made-up account and then they dug deeper based off of them being able to hold him and get warrants for additional information so what's that old saying the lawyers talk about, the apple from the poison tree is no good, something to that effect that's essentially what i think happened here. but, you know, i think the documentary will show the viewers and the viewers ultimately will be able to make up their own mine as to whether he's a victim or a villain >> that's how you set up the film so let's go there how does this end? when i say how does this end, you might have to do a second series about how this ends right now he is free, sort of.

>> yeah, he's in a large prison called lebanon he lives comfortably, he lives in a very lovely house, he's with his wife, that your very much in love and he's comfortable. but i think the thing that eats away from him apart from not jetting the world in a private jet is his tarnished he'll be remembered as the man who escaped in a box and i think he lives the rest of his day in lebanon i don't think he'll risk going to france for trial. i could be wrong this story has had a lot of twists and turns but my personal guess is that he spends the rest of his days in lebanon >> i could talk to both of you for hours about this

i kind of want to, frankly, having watched the series and congratulations on the series. it does premiere on apple plus tomorrow thank you again for joining us and thanks to both of you. >> fascinating and almost surreal to be able to talk to them aboutit >> coming up, bracing for the fed chair's speech at jackson hole and we have durable goods at 8:30 s&p futures 22 points higher, nasdaq flying on those nvidia results. "squawk box" will be right back. billy idol? i mean where's the skin-tight leather? my shoes are leather. where's the unnecessary zippers? that thing! billy, rock star is just how doug feels when he uses workday. thanks, rory. i'll show you rock star! be a finance and hr rock star. workday. for a changing world. billy idol just stole your golf cart!

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jay powell's message when the jackson hole symposium and highlights of the gop debate >> aaron judd hit three home runs and i had him hitting one

>> final hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site and becky is off today. we have a lot of news, including nvidia news. nasdaq flying this morning, about 163 points higher, nasdaq down, s&p 500 up about 20 years. treasury yields, 10-year at 4 4.219. >> is it envidia or knvidia

>> somebody told me it was off the latin for envy >> if it's envy, there are some envious people out there >> now i'm questioning how i said it. >> i'm just wondering. >> you said n-vidia. >> nvidia. >> call the company and see how they answer the phone. >> let's go over to frank holland. >> maybe frank knows >> kick things off this morning. what do you think? >> i say n-vidia i usually go with how the ceo says i know you guys are debating

some of the biggest financial issues we have to talk about it huge quarter for nvidia. profit 29% better than the estimates. you can see shares are up more than 7.5% right now and very upbeat guidance that suggested a 175 profit boost as demand for its a.i. chip continues to grow. the ceo also highlighted the customer enthusiasm from artificial intelligence, shares up 7.5%. >> and smci, one of the biggest beneficiaries of all this even higher than nvidia ami a boost up, almost 2.5% and intel, however, down fractionally lower >> and let's stick with the tech

names, revenue drove by 14%. the software company boosting its sales outlook for the rest of fiscal 2024 and we got to talk about this one, another retail stock in a big decline after earnings we're talking petco. you see the stock falling almost 13%. this is likely because petco cut its guidance and the ceo said it's due to a big slowdown when it comes to discretionary spending they're hoping to save 150 million by the end of fiscal 2025 i don't know if you guys have pet. i spend a lot of money here. i'm shocked to hear it's down. >> you don't know i have pets? i'm hurt

>> i know you do >> we have fish. >> i know you have a german shepard. >> i have two german shepards, a malt-a-poo and another >> i took a picture. he's like a dog model. he's beautiful >> one of my dogs is 18. you'd love him he's blind and deaf and everything else. >> doesn't do a lot. sleeps a lot >> so do i, though the federal reserve, jackson hole summit begins today with high expectations for the traditional speech by the fed chair, investors hoping jay powell will able to provide fresh monetary policy guidance senior economics reporter. he's not a senior but he is our senior economics reporter. steve liesman joins us for the

moment we've been waiting for. did you just rush in from the stream >> no, joe that was about an hour ago so i didn't have to rush. i think what's interesting here, joe, is you have a somewhat divided fed gathering in the mountain you have one camp advocating for rate hikes, you have others wait and see and everything is going to try to steer the economy between the two. one way to gauge these divisions is to look at the difference in forecast for the funds rate one and two years out. at least one fed official has 5.9 for next year, another 3.6 the gap for 2025 even bigger at 3.2 percentage points. one thing this chart shows is when the fed is in a period of forward guidance, that's when the forecasts are close because

they're telling us what's going to happen down the road and when it's not like now, those gaps appear the dove case now rests on the recent decline in inflation. it will continue along with the concern about the spike in interest rates and a rise in credit card delinquency. the hawks say growth has been running above potential. the job market it too tight, including the big union wage increases up there now last year at jackson hole powell said, quote, reducing inflation is likely to require a sustained period of below trend growth well, guess what, he's repeated that but it hasn't happened. his likely course here i think is to stay the course, keeping rates high, insisting the job is not yet done along with suggesting the long run neutral rate could be higher

it also will likely make note of the successes of bruninging dow inflation and balancing the hawks and doves by suggesting up side and down risk from the economy are more balanced than the last time they gathered here in the mountain. tomorrow we talk to loretta from cleveland and then we have chicago's austin goolsbee as well and then there is the chair's speech at 10 a.m. eastern. none of those folks can get up to be on "squawk box"? >> sometimes things happen and you don't understand the impact on you the moving on or retirement of james bullard has had a big effect on us he was the guy >> i thought goolsbee would get up >> well, loretta would get up but decided not to get up this year

>> you said what powell said a year ago and up need below trend growth to bring inflation down in flags got cut in half with above trend growth why is that stul something, a basic tenet at what he's talking about. if you're doing the ben franklin close, you had 4-1 you had four reasons for the -- and only three reasons for -- >> i really like that. you had the economy running at or even above potential and inflation is coming down we talked to jeremy siegel and he suggested we may be having a productivity surge and causing inflation to fall. i don't know how long it's going to ask there are those head winds we talked about it could still be on the come

here >> any normal person who hears, well, for us to accomplish our goals we're going to have to really cut growth and make sure things slow down i mean, just -- i wish -- doesn't a normal person say i wish it didn't have to be that way. and then if it turns out it didn't have to be that way -- i wish we could lower inflation without killing growth >> very quickly, joe, that's one of the things i'm going to be asking people about in the hallways here is this really challenges the model the fed operates under hopefully we'll get some answers and i'll come back and talk to fed folks and tell you exactly what they say. >> excellent, thank you. the river runs through it there in jackson hole. it does. >> coming up, what investors need to know about last night's first gop debate and top takeaways from the counterprogramming from the former president, president trump. check out one of the other

check out one of the other moversowns across the us, stay tuned this is cnbc the people who live and work there. because you call these communities home, and we do too. pnc bank. ( ♪ ♪ ) since i was really young, whether it was basketball football or track i've always been one of the most athletic ones on my team. so i had a lot of faith in myself. but my second year in the league, having drops and things like that can mess with a young kid's confidence. i realized natural talent is not enough. it's always work ethic. once i really understood that, i never looked back. (crowd cheering) ( ♪ ♪ )

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box. all of the gop candidates for president sparring at the first 2024 debate last night except one, which we know about good morning >> andrew, you're absolutely right. the most widely known republican candidate, donald trump, wasn't on stage last night, which created an opening for the least well known businessman, ramaswamy. >> this isn't that complicated, guys, unlock american energy, drill, frack, burn cole and reduce nuclear reform the u.s. fed, stabilize the u.s. dollar and go to war. the only war that i will declare as u.s. president will be the war on the federal administrative state that is the source of those toxic regulations acting like a wet blanket on the economy

>> now that prompted former vice president mike pence to fire back at ramaswamy saying he doesn't have enough experience to be president of the united states >> i balanced budgets and cut taxes when i was governor. joe biden has weakened this country at home and abroad now is not the time for on-the-job training. we don't need to bring in a rookie, bring in people without experience >> meanwhile former president donald trump, as you say, andrew, appeared on twitter and explained his decision not to participate in last night's debate >> i'm leading by 50 and 60 points and some of them are at one and zero or two. i'm saying do i sit there for an hour or two hours or whatever it's going to be and get harassed by people who shouldn't even be running for president?

>> it's not clear if trump is going to participate in the next debate in september on fox we'll next see him today at the fulton county jail where he will surrender in the wake of his indictment on charges related to his efforts to overturn the 2020 election in the state of georgia, guys. we'll see whether last night's debate moves the needle on any of these poll numbers and changes trump's calculus on whether he needs to attend these debates or not >> do we get poll numbers every day? >> we'll start to see polls roll in over the north korext coming. the candidate who really needed a boost here was desantis and he didn't really stand out from the pack last night. ramaswamy was the one who i think moved the needle the most in terms of where he was and maybe where he's going

some of the other candidates didn't capture the lightning in a bottle that you want to do in an early debate. >> joining us, a senior fellow at the hoover institution, he served as a senior adviser on four presidential campaigns. i don't want to out you on this but can i? >> yeah, sure. >> is trump going to be the nominee? is that what we're figuring out? is there any stopping him? i don't know what you think about that and it can strike absolute terror in a lot of people and in a lotof other people are saying as it should be so i don't know what you think but is that the end result of all this go ahead >> he's the odds-on favorite you have to look at the elements of this, right you look at the polls, not that the national polls tell you a whole lot but even if you look state by state, he's got leads in iowa and new hampshire and the places he needs to be doing well

to win a republican primary, it's not just about leading in the polls, it's do you have the infrastructure to show that you can build an organization to succeed. he's got that. it's just difficult for me to say. i know we talk a lot about it but last night's debate is not going to change the fundamentals of this race, of where this is headed i do think that donald trump remains the odds-on favorite i don't know that there's a whole lot that will alter that four indictments, a lot of news coverage that's not particularly positive i think this is where we are we're in a place where we're going to be headed for a biden-trump rematch. >> and the two groups of people i was talking about, i don't know whether they're deplorables or listless vessels, what's the latest acronym for the trump supporters but the more the

biden administration, georgia, whatever, the more that happens, the more motivated they get that the scales are justice are not being doled out properly for better or worse, that's what's happening the democrats seem to understand that do they want trump to be the nominee? >> of course they do >> will that pay off or is that a miscalculation >> if they sit back, donald trump's the nominee, he's very polarizing i've often that the donald trump is the one republican that biden probably could beat and i think biden is the one democrat that trump could probably beat. it's going to come down to three or four states, as it always does if you look at the numbers in those states, pennsylvania's a great example. pennsylvania will be a critical state. donald trump's running three or four points ahead of joe biden if you look at recent polling,

reputable sources show donald trump is doing pretty well with independents in pennsylvania the democrats have a problem if they look state by state at the states that actual matter, donald trump's performance isn't totally bad. i think democrats think they want donald trump, that probably conventionally is right because these polarizings his negatives are high at the end of the day you got to be careful what you wish for because in these states where trump's got some support, those are states that are going to be significant to this election >> do you think is it 100% joe biden? >> i think it's pretty close to 100% there haven't been a lot of really strong elements within the party that have tried to step forward and say something else i'll say this, i think there are people ready to go if for some reason joe biden doesn't make it to the finish line

gavin newsom's ready to go >> his hair's ready. >> always been ready >> and there's probably others as well. you know gretchen whitmer in michigan, gina romondo she's in china this week elections in the u.s. generally come down to the state of the economy, they generally come down to how people feel about the economy. >> and a guy running from prison, that's kind of crazy, isn't it i'm not saying one way or the other because i see how someone could think that during an election year to throw all these different -- one of those books has to be a reasonable book, though, that is getting thrown at him isn't there something there that could be disqualifying or is there nothing there that should be disqualifying >> yeah, this is going to be the core, i think, of the democrat argument, which is why -- yes,

they're talking about bidenomics today. i think next summer they're going to be focused on donald trump and all of these legal issues but at some point, joe, i do wonder, does it all become noise for people yeah, look, the guy's an unsavory character, he's probably violated a bunch of federal laws but at the end of the day i'm not excusing the behavior, it's deplorable but politically at some point it becomes noise for people >> and michelle oh, no way, you don't think there's any way? >> no way. >> and you can't leap frogover

c camala, can you? thank you. coming up, much more on the high profile fed gathering kicking off today in wyoming we're going to talk about the latest moves in interest rates and how they might impact the message from central bankers "squawk box" will be right back. businesses need 5g solutions today. that's why they choose t-mobile for business. mlb partners with t-mobile to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. aaa relies on t-mobile's network to stay connected nationwide, so they can help get their members back on the road. and we're helping pano ai innovate, to stop the spread of wildfires.

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. news this morning, chinese retailer shein striking a partnership that will clear the way for the fast selling retailer to sell each other's apparel. she said they could eventually operate inside the 21 forever stores as they are requiring a third of the parent's sparc group. the ceos of those two companies will be on "squawk on the street" at 11 a.m. coming up, a new look at jobless claims we'll see what the figure is that and durable goods when "squawk box" returns for revolutionary support without underwires, and sizes up to a g-cup, find your new favorite bra today at knix.com

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welcome back to "squawk box. rick santelli here live. the jobless claims on the light side, 230,000 is the lightest since the last week in july when it was 227,000

continuing claims a week in arrears, expecting a number slightly over 1.7 million, delivers 1,702,000 that is the lightest level since last week in july. you can see the trending here has been on the light side we haven't been above 1.8 million since the last week in april. so that goes back quite a ways now let's go with durable goods. these are july preliminary reads. we're expecting down 4%, down 5.2%, down 5.2% and we have to go back quite a ways to get a number that is that extreme on its preliminary glance we're going to have to go all the way back to april of 2020. that is a whopper of a number and i know that durable goods is a very volatile data series. that is a bit shocking transportation, though, can you see it goes from minus 5.2 to up

half of 1% so transportation weighed heavily on the number. and a proxy for capital spending is always important, expected up 0.1 and delivers 0.1%. and we have lost a bit of horse power. our high water mark of late was all the way back to up 1.2%. you have to go to march of last year to see that and that was a robust number what's the response in the marketplace? not too much we're at 4.22 before the number, we're at 4.22 after the number on 10-year we know yields after spiking have eased back a bit but the dynamic has changed. this whole notion of the buy dip mentality is more of a rally

mentality in the treasury complex. equities haven't moved much either it's all about the dnasdaq and the dow is tradragging a little bit. labor market versus seasonality, that pretty much covers it kelly, back to you >> we appreciate it very much. investors bracing from the key speech tomorrow from jay powell. the 2-year note around 5%, the 10-year its highest level in more than 16 years joining us, louise shaner from the brookings institution and jerome snyder. w welcome to both of you jobless claims are strong and there's no signs this economy is rolling over in the near term. ia, i think this is consistent

with a strong labor market and on the durable goods, it is very volatile we had a huge number in june so this is payback from that. but the underlying numbers are reasonably strong. so i think we have a strong economy and it's certainly a very strong labor market as we're rolling along. >> jerome, is this a once in a lifetime opportunity to get yields at 4 and 5% are we going to look back in a year and say, oh, man, we should have been seizing that opportunity or at that point are they going to be twice as high >> i think there's been a massive recalibration in sources of income and that will be generous for a period of time. where we are in the vicinity of approaching a 5% 2-year note, we've seenrecalibration and some of those technical factors will be driven by supply, some by inflationary expectations but

all in all looking at ways to reduce volatility is a very generous one at this point in time, though we have to eroo mi remind investors to maneuver in a straight line. >> the question would be do you really think -- you can pick the short end, you can pick the long end. do you really think they're going to go materially higher from here? >> it's not necessarily materially higher but it's the response that we have to be thinking about that might be more protracted or more debated, which leads to a longer runway effectively toward those rate cuts that the market is anticipating in later in 2024 and 2025 those may or may not come to fruition there were robust numbers in the third quarter of gdp there are very favorable factors and there's a deterioration in corporate earnings that offset

that if we hear a notion, a continued message that the fed is going to fight inflation for the foreseeable future, that might mean we are on hold here or perhaps slightly higher as we enter the later months of 2023 that also means we may not necessarily see rate cuts as quickly as the market forecasts as many suspect going forward which means the higher rates are with us and the sources of income are with us for a good period of time >> if you had to summarize in a nut shell, what do you think we're going to hear from powell tomorrow >> i think we'll hear a commitment of the 2% inflation, a commitment to that and i think we will hear a message that the door is not closed to further rate hikes depending on what happens with the data coming in, particularly inflation, not so much the real economy but inflation. if it not coming down, there may be more rate hikes and in tickets probably going to be higher for longer. i think that's going to be the

message, they are going to stay the course until they realize that inflation is definitely on its way down so it may well be higher for longer and i think that's what he's going to emphasize. >> rick? >> you know, let's move away from the fed just for a second debt and supply. going back to graham rudman, the treasury market has rarely given us the kind of behavior we would expect when debt and supply were key issues but maybe it's different this time there's talk about 1 trillion servicing the debt, rating agencies are weighing in, these are huge dynamics. jerome, on interest rates, do you think they will pay more attention? is the rise something unique or is it as bullard says that we're expecting much better growth, which i don't see in a world on the verge of a global recession. >> yeah, quite honestly, rick, it's a great point here. i think the market has forgotten

the lesson in bond math. and while we still have an inverted yield curve, these may come in over a secular rise that rely upon how the market digests this new ish but more importantly, what the real rates are going to be. we might be in a period of time where inflation doesn't necessarily go back to that 2% benchmark as quickly as people expect, which means the market expectation for rates is a little higher than we've seen over the past generation or so it also leads to the fact that ultimately investors had to be nimble in this regard. there's going to be vulnerability in the markets and the ability to be cautious and embrace these higher yields is a perfect condition given the

released outlooks. >> you think inflation will ever get back to 2% in the near future >> i'm sorry, kelly. >> it's a great question, rick and i think ultimately the question with regard to that 2% will take some time in that regard we might have to be accustomed to something just north of 2%, which will not necessarily be devastating or something the government will be comfortable with we have to be careful by what we mean by inflation. we need to see how that materializes oaf the next year so that road to 2% is going to be a bit more protracted than people think >> louise, i'll give you a chance to respond as well. >> i want to respond to what's after the normalization, are we going back to the conditions before or are we going to be in a new world? there's a question about people have talked about the long-term

fiscal challenges, the rising debt they didn't seem to care whether or not they p this is -- it never really went back to being as worried about the debt as before. i don't know we'll have to see. >> it remains the kind of overarching question in the background thank you, everybody, we appreciate your time today, louise, jerome, rick >> coming up, what nvidia means to the a.i. world and all the startups out there and a reminder as we head to the break, you can always and stay tuned. "squawk box" is coming back right after this ♪ please don't go ♪ ♪ please don't go.. ♪ ♪ please don't go ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. futures about what we've seen for most of the session, boeing weighing on the dow jones until it's in the red, nvidia, other tech stocks strong and that has the nasdaq up triple digits all morning. >> and let's talk about the shares demand for nvidia chips, here is the company's ceo on the earnings call. >> our demand is tremendous. we are significantly expanding our production capacity.

supply will substantially increase for the rest of this year and next year nvidia has been preparing for this for over two decades. >> joining us right now to talk about nvidia's dominance in the a.i. field as well as how it can affect a.i. startups, bradley tusk good morning to you. >> hi. >> sounds like this is a runaway train and in the best way possible for them. >> yes >> are you in the view we'll be talking about them as the leader of this for the next five, ten years or is this a hype cycle or are others going to catch up >> it's not a hype session it's not like they just got lucky they were in the right place at the right time. it's not like arizona iced tea putting the word blocking in their name and the stock goes up for a couple of days

it is a really lucrative field and an early stage tech investors is how are startups using a.i. and the reality is, at least from our perspective, a.i. is a there's a couple of things like chatgpt -- >> and therefore do you say this is a business that's going to benefit the incumbents or are there go going to be start ups >> i think there can be. we have one called lab p laborate contract network uses a.i.

all of the standard provisions go right away. >> it feels like that's a feature, not a product don't you think the incumbents at tom sount, don't they just use a.i. to make the report actually in english? >> that's always when you're investing in early stage tech companies. in theory the incumbent can do it we're betting on they're too slow, too old and stagnant to do it and. >> how long will "nvidia slumps on a load of a.i. chips. people are going to load up on them and kpips go through this period are there any what i'm seeing

anecdotally, that will drive demand for a long time the market will effectively -- >> will there ever be an amd passing an intel with nvidia >> yeah. >> there will be someone willing if it out? >> i think people are always going to figure it out >> generally ten years because they got a ten-year head start but eventually will there be real competition >> i still can't if you go out whether a.i. is a feature and not a product. it's not that you get more market -- they are because of the chips but on the software side, it's a defensive business

to protect what microsoft or google already has rather than and i can't see it's as transformational it is across the board to everybody base. >> i mean, i think you're right, every business and up saw that story about the woman who had a stroke, wasn't able to pack and in california they were p they're able to spot wildfires two weeks earlier than before because of a.i. so i think that there are going to be use cases for it but i don't think it's every day business i think it's applications of certain types of science >> how much of it is about savings, meaning savings because people are going to not be needed in the same way ia, look, there's always that, whether it's the horse and buggy to the car or the internet -- >> you don't believe that this

is -- >> i don't think it's coming tomorrow for example, investors for an automatic trucking company a.i. can help make trucking aefr in any way moving trucking -- truckers off the road map. it just sort of helps meet the need and demand and make the drop safely. >> in terms of the models themselves obviously there's open-a.i., but it seems not only do you need talent at those places but company tall, in terms of raising capital. >> it's interesting that the and activity is relatively low, very few accidents really low so compared to the money of a

couple years ago is nothing to what a.i. could potentially be, you haven't seen this insane glut but given the markets always sort of go up and down, that will change >> final question, may be a curveball but i'm sure you are focused on it as a venture guy, the sec has new some new disclosure rules that have just come out that are going to change private equity, change venture capital. for as long as i can remember, there weren't really rules is this a good thing from a venture capital perspective? i know there's some -- there's been pushback, but you and i have spoken -- >> the cfo and the accounting team aren't particularly happy about it i would say this to the extent that this s.e.c. talks about wanting to help small businesses, smaller funds like mine, it becomes a really big additional compliance cost, whereas a giant fund is already doing this, and so i would say that it sort of locks in the market position of the entrenched interest. >> bradley tusk, thank you, sir. >> that's not what they want to

do is it? >> never what they want to do, is it? >> so they claim coming up, we'll take a technical look at the market and the run through -- and we'll run through key levels to watch as we count down to the opening bell dow is still under pressure. the s&p hanging on to a gain the nasdaq would opeupn 151 stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ it's raising capital to help companies change the world. ♪

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welcome back to "squawk box. among today's top business stories, the private equity firm rourke capital is buying the subway chain terms of the deal weren't disclosed but reuters reported they were in the lead to acquire the company for more than $9 billion boeing, this is what's weighing on the dow this morning, says a new manufacturing flaw will delay deliveries of its best-selling 7 37 max jet the company said it found improperly drilled holes in some aft pressure bulk heads. though it will continue to deliver unaffected aircraft.

boeing didn't say whether it would change its forecast. premarket shares are down 2.5% >> whatever happened to jared? >> at subway you know what happened to him. >> i thought about mentioning that a few times in recent days. i said, i got no upside to mentioning that dude >> sorry >> when you build an entire brand advertising on a human with all the frailties and flailty is a nice word for what that guy was before. >> ixnay on the -- >> subway's decline, in some ways, has been rather swift in the last 10 to 15 years and a lot of mistakes have come -- >> i went to danny devito instead, jersey mike's and i like the commercial. >> what are they called? the philly people would be, like, but i like the chicken

cheesesteak there. pretty good. >> you get -- i'm envious of what you get here in the morning, and she's not even your producer and she delivers to you. >> i don't normally eat like this, i promise. >> you're right. 4.75 kids with a week left you might be lucky it might be a capricorn, the best sign. >> i'm not a -- >> i'm just telling you. you might be -- that would be great. with a week left in august, the s&p 500 is tracking for its worst month of the year. joining us now for a technical look at the markets, jason hunter, jpmorgan's head of global fixed income and u.s. global strategy. was there any -- too much optimism built up? did that need to be worked off, and has that happened? >> we originally thought 4,200 would be the ceiling for the s&p and that was the case up until

the economic data started to beat expectations. let's call it from may through august what you saw is a position squeeze. people actually got quite pessimistic and underpositioned by the time you got into early may, and that 400-point squeeze, you know, i think did make things a bit too optimistic. we didn't see sentiment measures really get into the nose-bleed section but things got fairly optimistic for where we are within a late cycle environment and we think now the tide is turning. we stepped off our bearish view with a move above 4,200 but as the markets start to roll over again from channel resistance at 4,600, some of our technical signals started to trigger at that point so we are bearish going into the fall period now >> you are okay i was wondering what other technical bells are ringing. i saw the nasdaq breadth was the worst in history or something. their 50-day moving arches are being breached what other things are telling you that are notable that you

don't see all the time that might indicate a trend >> well, i mean, if we take a big step back and look at some of the broader cross-market signals, the yield curve has been inverted for the better part of a year and a half now. historically, if you go back to the 1970s and look at the timing of these cycles, generally, between 19 and 24 months after the curve inverts, you see your cycle peak in equity markets that then transition into an economic contraction as we go into the fourth quarter, you're about to roll into that window of time from the yield curve inverting, you know, the time ago that it did on top of that, from a yearly cyclical perspective, you'll get seasonality. it's well known, september and early october are not a good time to be in risky markets. we put that together with a high frequency pattern signaling we taugd about already from 4,600 >> hey, jason, if all that is the case, does that mean you should be out of the market through the end of the year? >> at the very least, for you, yes. >> you would sell or just not buy? >> that's what we're trying to

figure out you sell, not buy? buy defensive stocks what would you be doing? >> given where we are in the cycle, i'm on the -- of the view that you should be underweight and even short if you're a leveraged investor or trader right now. until we see signs of a bottom, if the market does pull back like we think. now, that could be 4,200, that would be 3,800, a retest of lows at 3,500 until we see signs of that bottom, i would stay out of the market and in a defensive posture right now. >> wow that's bold. >> it is bold. and rates peaking now or higher for longer higher, higher for longer? >> we think rates are going to roll over from these levels. >> you do? >> on a near-term basis, the higher rates have been a bearish pressure on the markets. >> with your slowdown call, that would make sense a lot of people are talking about 22 months before the first rate cut after an inverted yield curve. >> i thought it was nine on average. after the curve, 22.

yeah, yeah yeah. >> we got to go. sorry, jason, maybe next time. we'll make this episodic and leave this on a cliffhanger. thanks for being on. it was fun today happy -- feels like a friday almost >> almost. we'll see you tomorrow >> i'm excited to watch tomorrow >> are you >> i am. >> get some sleep. >> i will. after that long debate, i was up >> i know you were make sure you join us tomorrow we have a long debate tomorrow, unfortunately. "squawk on the street" is next good thurnz msday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber nvidia's lowout going to boost the nasdaq as the market moves on to jackson hole jobless claims come in the lightest of the month. yields are higher across the board. our road map begins with nvidia's a.i. boom the chip maker deliver