fee if you get there at 2:00 and the check-in time is 4:00. why should you have to pay a fee. extending past an 11:00 a.m. check-out, i get >> it takes a while to clean the rooms but is still a pain. >> thanks for watching "power lunch. have a great rest of the day is this friday no, thursday "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks so much. i'm scott wapner live from post 9 here at the new york stock exchange this make-or-break hour, despite the nvidia blowout and what that might mean ahead of tomorrow's key speech from jay powell rates up today ahead of the comments investors on edge about what he might say and what all of it might mean in the months ahead take a look. the dow weighed by big moves in disney and boeing and walgreens and intel.

we'll watch the stock in this final hour to see if it closes positive or negative you see the stock is still green. that's been a probably watching 4400 on the s&p brings to us our talk of the tape, the message with stocks struggling through a tough month and about to head into a seasonally tough stretch what is the best way to position for whatever happens next? let's ask joe terranova, a cnbc contributor. welcome back good to see you. we said there are two massive events this week nvidia was the first one to get through. you check the box. we now turn our attention towards jackson hole what do you make of this market?

>> you told us last week when you returned it was a sell the rips market and that's what it is we're up against very strong historical seasonals the weakness prevails, and the bond market took over as the catalyst from nvidia there was nothing wrong with nvidia >> it reaffirmed the potential optimism but it's about bond yields here and now. going into tomorrow's jackson hole speech, chairman powell has to really walk a fine line because he could send the bond market pair bawlics. >> number one, you're suggesting that the profile of this mark has changed. what was a buy the dip is a sell the recipient market

a lot of momentum and froth perhaps and great feeling already in the story there what do you make of that >> listen, nvidia right now has the most intense, positive momentum of a stock i can remember if you want to try and understand what the actual risks are surrounding nvidia, it's that you could see market cap loss from a lot of the other mega caps. so if i look right now at apple relative to nvidia, what has a stronger fundamental tail wind without question, nvidia does. nvidia has a fundamental tail wind the mega caps don't i think portfolio managers -- and they're already under weight apple and some of the other mega caps just because of where they are in valuation i do think you're going to see a little bit of an internal

rotation amongst the magnificent seven going towards nvidia at the expense of the other mega caps >> if institutions and mutual funds, hedge funds, are under weight we had a suggestion apple is under owned in that cohort another firm says a lot of the mega caps under owned in terms of that cohort does that lead to a chase? does it lead to a chase that gives the next leg after you consolidate? >> i think it does but i think in the fourth quarter we set up perfectly for a chase for performance driven by the positions in a lot of those mega caps >> so hold your thought. steve liesman is out in jackson hole there because of the big

speech tomorrow. joe said the chair tomorrow needs to walk a, quote, fine line, or he could send the bond market pair bawlics. what's the sense of the message chair powell wants to send tomorrow >> reporter: another thing joe said, i thought was really interesting that the bond market looks trumping the market here i do think powell has to walk a fine line. i don't know that i can say or the bond market will go parabolic. it's one where the federal reservehas to have concern about inflation but a bunch of success in bringing inflation down we've gotten to this point where

unchanged unemployment, gdp is running pretty strong. that's the big question to me whether he feels he needs to address that stronger gdp growth last year he said it would require below trend growth higher rates was not a concern for him. i don't think we're that on edge on monetary policy here because i think the fed is in a wait-and-see attitude. i don't know what the market he heard. >> i think we've probably done enough my question to you is harker on an island -- is he on an island, or is he part of the majority at this point >> reporter: i don't think so. look, there's -- if you want to

put together a majority, the majority would be those who think they've done enough or those who think you have to go another quarter, that's a big part of the committee right there. there is a contingent that does think maybe there's one more to go, but they're going to let it ride, i think, a little bit, scott. a pass in september is probably close to a done deal without any obvious acceleration in inflation and then a few more months of data the fed can come back and figure out if it's done enough harker told us he thought the fed was restrictive already. he didn't say sufficiently restrictive. that would be an incredibly dovish comment if he says it tomorrow that we are sufficiently restrictive that's what harker thinks, collins thinks, i think what bostonic thinks. there is the we've done enough crowd. >> do you think the fed chair's message changes now because of

the move in yields over the last month? in other words, he has to acknowledge that financial conditions have tightened somewhat, right? so if he gives a speech a month ago, maybe the wording is different. it's done some of the fed work for it, hasn't it? >> reporter: scott, i think you're 100% right. i was thinking we were going to come in here a few weeks ago and the problem would be the strong gdp growth the respond in the bond market which has come from very large issuance announcement from the treasury and what's been happening in japan, forces are working on the bond market right now and i think that plays a pretty big role in what powell has to say if he doesn't mention it, hey, he's okay with what's happening because he's done some of the work for him some big bond investors look at 4.30, today 4.23 on the 10 year and say, you know what, 2% real

return, that may be where we're living for a while i think what joe is talking about, learning to slip at night with a ten-year yield to come. >> do you want to respond to that if he sends rates off to the races in any way, the stock market is obviously going to have a problem >> the bigger problem is in finan financials already telegraphing that how in touch is he with where they are mortgages, try to get an auto loan you're challenging valuations. he has a lot of work to do and this is also his first opportunity to acknowledge the downgrade of the u.s. from fitch and the banks with s&p and munis.

the regional banks is a part i would focus on that's where the problem is. >> are you going to talk about that, steve, will mention maybe the banks, the ratings down grades, the pipe has been slogged up in that part of the system >> i would be surprised if he mentions ratings downgrade, not his particular problem i do think he would see regional banks as his problem, some of the other issues joe talked about as things that are things he can address, though if he were to say, joe, we are done here, look, the fed sees credit tightening as a need for what they want to do here which is to bring down inflation some pressure will be felt by the regional banks in the effort

to slow down the economy if he were to say, we're done here, that would cause the short end to have a lot of relief in it and you'd have or could have close to a positive slope in the yield curve. i think he will let it run for a bit and watch it i don't think he sees the problem as acute >> they've been flummoxed by the resiliency of the consumer which obviously they need things to slow, in their minds, and if you look at the consumer you could say it's a tale of two today is yet another example, some of these apparel makers have had a brutal week

it's not an easy picture to read you can say, see, the consumer is cracking, and hear from ceos in another part of the discretionary world and suggest they're doing just fine. >> reporter: yeah, so, scott, i've been collecting dimes for every time somebody told me the consumer is cracking and i have a pocket full of dimes right now, and people have been wrong about that i'm embarrassed about the economic community which says that consumers either have $100 billion left in savings or they have a trillion dollars left in savings. they don't really know we don't really know i've been looking at the idea lots of folks, wages have been relatively healthy the bulk of consumers' income does come from the fact that they're working. so i'm not ready to say the consumer will give it up it's possible they slow down a little bit as you said, they've been enjoying trips and experiences

and rock concerts and all kinds of fun stuff out there, and they've been spending on that, which we don't, by the way, track very well. i don't think the fed willsay the consumer will give it up it would have been a bad prescription >> structural shifts in the global economy, does that mean in some way that chairman powell will suggest to us that he's going to be patient with 3% inflation? >> reporter: no. well, okay, patient, yes, but not change the target. i think it's -- i think -- >> not publicly anyway >> reporter: if he has a chance -- right. if he has a chance to bring down -- to get hold of inflation, see it gradually coming down towards 2%, be erring on reports that are higher than 2, and make all that happen without a bona fide

recession, i think he'll take that he has to wait a year, a year and a half, i think he will be cool with that the structural changes, whether or not there's talk about a higher neutral rate, that interest rates are higher for longer i think it's about supply chains and what that means. domesticating some of our supply chains, bringing them home and i think the idea of global inflation and how that's been working are all on the table here we have lagarde speaking, the governor of the bank of japan is here, all to be part of the conversation here. >> we'll look forward to all of it and your coverage, too. eight minutes that changed the market last year, because that's how long the fed chair spoke and then the markets hit the lows in october after that summer in jackson hole steve liesman, thank you very much we look forward to you over the next day as well let's bring in wealth enhancement group, what's your

view here? nvidia delivered everything that we could have ever asked for again and yet we have an uncertain market heading into tomorrow >> hi, scott they did deliver so the pullback, as joe mentioned today, is really because of the bond market the bond market is really driving this reset in valuations, and it's going to be about time, how long are we going to spend at whatever the terminal rate ends up being? it's no longer about the level and more about the time. >> i wonder about nvidia as we watch it and we'll track it over the next 45 minutes you wonder if it's -- if the stock does have a pullback of any size whether it gets bought and what

it means for the other mega caps they went up more after nvidia did last quarter but now you have to ask the question whether nvidia's gain is nvidia's to enjoy itself, and whether those other stocks are going to be able to continue streaking with nvidia what's your sense? >> scott, on nvidia's earnings call, they mentioned how it was the hyper scalers. it is microsoft and amazon and google cloud purchasing a lot of these ai chips and so i think the benefit will acue to all of us who utilize the cloud with the productivity gains are still going to be there. i don't think you can just detach it and say it's on an island by itself >> i didn't think the market would be down today after what nvidia did deliver in

"overtime. what does that tell you? i don't know what the fed chair will say, what rates are going to do. is it an ominous sign that the market doesn't look like it did last time? >> no, i think it makes sense. when interest rates are high, you have to adjust for that in valuations and so multiple expansion has been the name of the game this year for multiples to come back despite the fact that nvidia blew it out, it sort of makes sense where we were at the end of july. this august retrenchment makes sense to me. >> how about you, joe? >> it all begins with this battle they've been vocal about that.

they've told you they're short they're pressing up against the federal reserve. on the other side of that, the asset management industry wants to get long duration they think there's value that's being realized in the corporat band market. i see it as needing to be resolved >> what part of the market looks the best to you right now? >> we still like health care in general. i think health care has a lot of characteristics to it that can provide growth as well as some defensive characteristics. >> ayo, we'll see you soon thank you for being here joe, thank you >> see you tomorrow. to our "question of the day. will rates rise or fall on fed chair powell's speech tomorrow x, formerly known as twitter, to find out the results later on. we're just getting started

let's get a check on top stocks to watch, kristina partsinevelos is back with that. >> well, splunk is an outperformer the ceo said that cloud spending has slowed in the current economic environment but remains optimistic and so does wall street shares are up over 13% look at shares of petco, woof. yes, did i that pun. the full-year guidance, the ceo saying in the release the environment is still uncertain as discretionary spending remains under pressure people aren't spending on their pets >> we'll see up next the big bond breakup why that relationship could be

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stocks are near session lows giving up earlier gains on the back of strong q2 earnings my next guest believes there could be more volatility saying harmonious relationship is likely over.

kevin gordon of charles schwab in fairness, you said the path of least resistance was likely down >> last time got more constructive in the june/july period -- >> you could barely see through the positivity >> there was hope on our part, at least, given the deterioration into may, a record low in the percentage of stocks, that was more of the bearish case not this concentration with a handful of names leading the rally. that was the case where we saw a lot more optimism going in now, of course, the sell-off has been more broader, a pretty deterioration in breadth

>> do you take anything at all from nvidia and earnings and a muted reaction, any level of momentum left to propel them higher >> it's really the volatility in yields that's been much more of a driver this time when you look back in history, we've done work on looking at different phases or stages within bonds and the two book-ends, the significant driver for stocks. it's not as much the level of yields that's the problem, it's the speed of the spikes. >> from the beginning of earnings season we're 0 to 50 higher which some suggested a

decent earnings season was more muted, that rates went up as quickly as they did. >> i think it's part that. you have to go a little bit more below the surface and look at the fact that for a lot of companies, a good chunk that earnings beats put them in that category, aggressive cost cutting, revenues were flat. march of the case as good as it gets from an earnings perspective and now companies showing organic growth the high flyers that have a runway ahead of them, have had solid gains year to date it doesn't hurt to take profits. >> we talked about that with joe, too, the tone and tenor any

meaningful move higher, nvidia stock is up 50%, gets a pop off the initial report it's going to fight it out for the next 30 minutes. to see what happens at the end >> one of the ways i would approach volatility and really our message for the entire year, even in maybe an umbrella of caution, would be underneath the surface. it doesn't mean don't stay invested i think there's a misperception that if you're cautious or a little bit negative, that means get out of the stock market. leaning into high quality, especially in the times of pullbacks where you're looking for earnings strength, one thing i would now with the yield story coming into the mix, i would add who has high interest coverage ratio. certain sectors screen pretty well

not as much as what sectors will do well. >> what kind of risk do you look at, jackson hole >> i'm staying on message to what he's been expressing and saying we're data dependent, nothing has changed for inflation and for growth i think the interesting thing in comparison to last year, very short, to the point of financial conditions having to tighten more, last year growth was pretty weak. and then inflation, we still didn't know if the peak was in the rearview and now growth expectations are picking up markedly i don't know if we get to 6% but inflation has been taking the stairs down. powell is in a better position to keep us on the path we've been on.

>> he has in his pocket that rates have gone up over the last four weeks that helps him out >> absolutely. that's part of the message when you hear from our fixed strategy team, they've been saying the move up in yields, this most recent move, a lot of factors you can point to part is consistent if that is to be the case. that would make sense to me. >> how are you feeling and has it changed if at all in the last month? >> fixed income has gotten attractive what you earn in the stock market on a forward earnings

relative to about two decades ago. it levels the playing field. >> well, bond yields have made that happen, too >> p/e ratio, even if that had been stretched, you could have rested on the fact that bond yields were throw. even into the early 2000s and stocks didn't go down. up next, the fed is in focus. the jackson hole summit kicking off.

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welcome back to "closing bell." stocks and bond prices both coming under pressure ahead of the fed chair's speech tomorrow. today patrick harker said he doesn't think the fed has to raise rates anymore. >> right now i think that we've probably done enough we have two things going on, the fed funds rate increases they are at restrictive levels let's keep them there. and, also, we are continuing to shrink our balance sheet that is also moving in accommodation. >> so what should investors expect from the speech tomorrow? let's ask evercore's roger altman thanks for being here, roger >> scott, how are you? >> i'm good. you heard mr. harker we've done enough. do you think they have >> i think tomorrow's message from chair powell in jackson

hole is going to be relatively low key and pragmatic. it's not going to be hawkish in the following sense. i think he's going to say that we've made good progress on inflation, but we have to watch and see if that continues. and he's going to observe, i would expect, that they have to be particularly vigilant because there is stronger underlying growth than most expected and that the fed expected, and that's the basis for being very watchful i don't think his message is going to be one which commits the fed one way or the other on the upcoming september meeting it gives them the flexibility to raise again, including then. if the interim data makes the case for that but doesn't commit him. so a pragmatic, relatively low key, low drama message

>> do you think in your gut that september's a live meeting, roger, or do you think we have a pause and then we'll put november on the table and just see what the inflation data for what is an alleged data dependent fed now sees and thinks >> i think that would have to be some negative data, meaning higher inflation data between now and the december meeting to hike then. i think the base mentality is not to do that as you know the market doesn't expect rate cuts at all between now and the end of the year. the big story, really, is the surprising growth. the latest data suggests that this third quarter may come in about 3% real growth that is remarkable for this late in the economic cycle. the recovery began almost three

years ago today, or this month, and 3% growth three years later is surprising. i think it's the main reason probably why bond yields have risen. it centers around the consumer consumer spending and retail sales. and it's surprising because there are some considerable signs of economic weakness, but they just aren't showing up in the main growth data if you look at mortgage applications, you have been talking a lot about that if you look at the flatness of rents now, you look at the china dynamic, you look at commodity prices like copper and aluminum, they're suggesting weakness. i think it remains to be seen whether the recession risk is behind us. but that weakness is not yet the main event when it comes to the growth data. it's the consumer. >> one of the other changes, it appears, as you cite a lot of

the positive data points, that now we've changed things, though, where that good news is perceived bad news because, a, it pushes bond yields higher and makes the fed more of a wild card on the whole thing. >> yes, but, as you well know, many smart people have already concluded that we're going to see a soft landing, no recession. goldman sachs has that viewpoint, for example i think it's too soon to conclude that. such long lags, 12 to 18 month lags if you look at the shrinkage, you say to yourself, wow,

economic weakness is coming. i'm not sure we'll see a recession but i don't think it's clear we aren't. >> let me also ask you, before i let you go, something in your wheelhouse, whether you think we are emerging from the wilderness, if you will, on the deal market, whether we've got the makings of what is a comeback for what's been really dried up over the last 18 months or so. >> the answer is maybe activity levels are up shadow backlog, so to speak, are up six to nine months from now we're in a recession territory,

that would turn the cycle back down if you believe we'll have a soft landing, the data i suggested implies that but it really depends on your medium term view on whether we're out of the woods economically and sailing out into the clear blue waters or whether you think ultimately we'll see economic softness a lot more than we have so far >> roger, i appreciate it. thanks for being with us that's roger altman. up next, tracking the biggest movers as we head into the close. kristina partsinevelos is back with that. kristina uh-oh, more quality issues with boeing 737 jets bringing down one key supplier. i'll explain next. is back now at lucky!

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exposure shares of boeing, though, moving in the opposite direction after the aerospace company said deliveries of 737 max planes will be delayed because of new manufacturing flaws, some holes in the body of the plane were improperly drilled spirit aerosystems builds those plane bodies, and its shares are down almost 12.5%. boeing almost 5% >> a rough day for both stocks last chance to weigh in on our "question of the day." will rates rise or fall on fed chair powell's speech tomorrow head to @cnbcclosingbell

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we're sliding towards the close here 340 now, the lows of the day for the dow jones industrial average, the s&p 500 down by more than 50 points as well. the nasdaq is a drag, too, down 1.75%. we continue to watch nvidia. we'll see what happens here as we edge to the close that stock is still hanging on to positive territory but not by much we'll keep our eyes focused in the next ten minutes or so the results of our "question of the day," will rates rise or small on the speech by the fed chair? the majority said rise 60% of you think they're going to continue to go up just after this break, your earnings setup, gp and affirm among the big names reporting in just a few moments a breakdown of the key metrics wchitweakyoinde the market zone. s to your spending. hi. ♪♪ you don't have to keep tabs on rotating categories.

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and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley we're in the "closing bell" mark zone. mike santoli to break down the day. more light shed on the consumer. we have courtney reagan on what to watch out of gap and what to expect from affirm as well in the meantime, mike santoli this is a getting nastier looking day. >> clearly some unfinished business in terms of the dynamics of this pullback, trying to assimilate very conflicting economic observations still strong gdp readings praking for this quarter and

decent growth numbers, but inflecting enough on the other side of it a very hot economy but higher yields means it will restrain the economy, fast and slow economy. that's what we're coming together on. the market is really operating in some respects in textbook fashion. the 5% pullback in the s&p, a half-hearted bounce that got back to the 50-day moving average. couldn't get there yesterday sellers seemed to stay out of the way just in case we got a buying frenzy after nvidia when that doesn't manifest at the open and it's a much more selective market, it was safe to take further risk off. we're still sloshing around between last friday's low and that 50-day average. i also think apprehension ahead of jackson hole tomorrow but just a why bother adding risk before hand.

>> disney, i want your opinion here the stock is ugly. the stock looks bad. the lowest close since 2014, just ugliness. >> definitely has been a broken chart for a while. when the mid-80s gave way, that seemed it was a potential floor. it did get you back to the covid low. maybe that's one technical reason it's not a strong group at the moment. you've seen weakness in everything within communication services so i've always put disney in an informal bucket with the likes of nike and starbucks as these global brands, the stock has never looked dirt cheap. it seems the brands travel around the world we can always own them and there's a little bit of hesitancy around all those names. >> nike, the 11th straight down

day today. down again you speak about charts that don't look great, and that brings me to retail. courtney reagan, good retail stories these days seem very few and far between. what is gap going to tell us >> exactly, scott. we're expecting to report earnings there but 9 cents and revenues of $3.5 billion sales he can pecked to fall 4.4% richard dickson started two days ago. not responsible for the quarter but will join tonight's earnings call gap shares rose in june on his hiring but 4% down since then. dickson has a big job to turn around this retailer it's struggled during the pandemic but then also it had fashion that consumers weren't so into and inventory of all off kilter a decent amount of executive turnover as well at a number of brands and large store closure program the company has been working through.

i think this needs some new gap magic. we'll see if dickson can do it and how long investors give him to do so these things take some time, of course, to start a new strategy and implement it we'll see how long he gets to do so >> we'll see you in "o.t." with the results there. we're watching for affirm, buy now, pay later speaking of stocks and charts that don't look great, down 18% in a month, down 55% from its recent high. >> on a two-year basis, it doesn't hurt out a lot of attention for obvious reasons on this uptick in consumer credit delinquencies. it is visible to the sell side for affirm in the form of the loans that they sell to securities you can track the loss rates and it hasn't necessarily been anything that says there's distress there but it's moving in the wrong direction, makes operating more expensive for affirm when rates go up, credit conditions soften and they can't make as much on selling those

packets. concerns about it's a commoditized offer arguably, buy now, pay later everybody else is in there with a me, too, basis that might be the debate today heavily shorted. >> so looking at rates, we're green almost across the board. red in terms of yields, but otherwise it's been almost straight up for the last month, right? >> sure. >> now we lean on tomorrow and this powell speech and, boy, the market will hang on every single word >> the ten year is essentially hovering near or just below the recent highs at this uncomfortable level for what they mean for higher for longer i think it's very sound to expect powell to try once again to say, look, we're in no haste to start cutting rates almost no

matter what, but we are restrictive right now, kind of what harker said today i don't think that's a tough message for the markets. an as expected signal we've been working with for a while now i don't think it's a huge hurdle for the market that's been helpful so in the last four to five weeks we've seen people go from pretty bullish and nervous. the lows from last friday in the 4330 area have a lot of eyes on them >> does it mean anything if nvidia manages to close positive today? i would imagine not a great sign if it reports what it does and finishes negative. still hanging on >> one more negative i think the action, the reversal in the nasdaq 100 in general has not been a positive one.

massive down side reversal where we indicated to open i don't know if nvidia will be a little bit of a small victory perhaps if it pulls it out >> going to be happy to close up today. we're going to go with the lows, too. i'll see you tomorrow. jon fortt now in "o.t.." well, looks like nvidia barely hangs on to gains that's a scorecard on wall street, a bit of a surprise. welcome to "closing bell overtime." i'm jon fortt. morgan brennan is off. buckle up, numbers on the way from retailers gap, nordstrom and ulta, credit and payments from affirm and intuit and results from tech names marvell and workday and exclusively you will hear from the ceo of snowflake and its relationship with nvidia i