economy, and i think that's what we might be seeing right now >> all right, we'll see what kind of lullabye the fed chair can sing we know you're a musician, steve, so, you'll be a good critic of that steve liesman, we appreciate that got to continue to watch all this market action this week it's been something. that's going to do it for "overtime. "fast money" starts right now. right now on "fast", shares of nvidia blasting off at the open before coming back down to earth. did that failure to launch trigger today's jittery action a deep dive on the struggles we're seeing at disney, starbucks, and nike w. keeping an eye on rates ahead of powell's big speech tomorrow, automakers hitting the skids as strike fears ramp up. this is "fast money," live at the nasdaq market site nice to be back, guys, thank you for having me. >> c.q., before we get started, the show -- if we make it to

january, it's 17 years say another 17 years -- people will say that the week of august 21st was mount rushmore. tyler mathieson, and you are on the cnbc mount rushmore. >> it's the only reason i come in, to get this. >> you got it. >> let's start with nvidia all-time high after blowing the doors off. the stock up a dime, taking semis and the broader market with it. amd, intel, smh, all falling down more than a percent nasdaq leads the losses down nearly two so, is nvidia's 24-hour turnaround a worrisome sign? dan? >> i think it could be for the tech trade that's been so wrapped up in all the excitement about a.i., right? so, really saw it crescendo over the last month and a half or so. we've talked a lot about july 18th, when microsoft put out the press release about the pricing of their a.i. tool, the stock rallied 5% we were doing the math, $130

billion gained well, that doesn't mean a lot of sense. and that reversed lower. it took a lot of megacaps into q-2 earnings with it and we were waiting to see how investors would react to something that we all knew was going to be a blowout. when you think about nvidia and you think about the sorts of growth rates they're going to be able to put up from here on out, they look much less than they did in late may, than they're going to look today, that sort of thing and that's what investors start pricing. we talked about this earlier in the week who is the buyer of a story that we know is really great right now, but competition's going to be coming online we don't know if demand is going to stay at this pace so, i go back to, on august 14th, this stock traded $400 this morning, it traded $500 you do that math, guy, you can do that moath -- >> pretty well >> you know, you think about it, it's a quarter of a tral dollars j on the anticipation of that. >> what do you think if this action comes after their quarter, i would not have liked to have seen a miss. >> no, no.

and you certainly think it's going to set us up for some kind of digestion, i think that's the best case here we move sod far so fast. and then, it's a question, to your point, dan, if you start to see a more material slowdown in sales. there is no evidence of that yet, because there is no clear competitor yet for them. but i think that's more of a 2024 story so, it sets you up, you digest for a little bit, you grow into this very, very rich multiple for a bit. maybe you get another, like, higher after that digestion, if they can hold object the sales pace otherwise, it looks more like a top. >> tim, what did you make of -- we made fun of rosenblatt street high 11, arguing it's cheaper today than it was yesterday -- does that make sense to you? >> it does but i think there's plenty of people that can argue that it's hardly cheap, and that the growth rates that we have in here are not the growth rates. i think that's maybe what dan was saying, are not sustainable. i prefer to assess nvidia from a market context on the q-1 numbers, the

outperformance to the s&p and the highs it took the semiconductors to immediately, and highs that it's had -- smh has been unable to surpass and the reaction last night was completely the opposite, really, today's trading. so, the semis underperformed the s&p by about 2.5%. you saw a straight line down, essentially 5% on the smh. and that's telling in terms of market leadership. now, we're coming out of a peerm beyond where, after the last three to four weeks, going into nvidia, i think there's been a lot of repositioning by equity investors. i think there's so many more people investing in equal weight -- excuse me, yeah, equal weight versus market weight. we've seen a significant move into cash. we get the money market data so, was nvidia's result, and this result, i think we've all indicated that this was kind of what was expected. and that i would make an argument that it was a pretty solid market response, when you

consider it. but most importantly, the market's not going to trade higher would leadership from megacap tech, and semiconductors and i think this kind of crowned that for the short run, even though i think -- i think jackson hole gives markets some room to rally after bad price action >> we'll talk jackson hole in a moment guy, i'm curious to know if you think, does this allow you to graduate into some banks here, or -- >> banks trade awful so, let's just drill down quickly on nvidia and smh. so, 112 million shares traded today, typically trades about 50 million. we can do that math, as well two-times normal volume, on a day where it opened on an all-time high and closed on the low of the day that's not particularly good price action smh, you have a massive double top going back to december 2021, traded up to 160 and failed. traded up to 160 again, seemingly failing now. amd had a horrible day the rest of the semis did, as well it's not an indictment an

nvidia, it's an indictment of the valuation. yes, you can make an argument that it's marginally less expensive than it was the day before, but it's still expensive and the market traded that way in terms of where there' rotar is rotation, i don't know the yield curve suggests the banks aren't going to get better any time soon. >> no other area -- >> health care looks really interesting to me. we've talked about that for months and energy, which is floundering here, is going to have a pickup. >> tim makes a great point on leadership and that's what you're getting to where would you go where would money go if it's going to leave these trades that have dominated a lot of the positive price action in the broader indexes over the last six months or so, since that svb blowup in march. i say to myself, the point about the equal weight s&p, and if you look at the etf that tracks it, it's sitting on its 200-day

moving average it's come back to support here, flight if you look at the market weight, look at the svx, it's still 7.5% its 200-day moving average. so, it's still very overbought there's still a lot of excitement, or a lot of interest concentrated in the big names. and i'll bring it back to microsoft and apple that are down 10% from their all-time highs made five or is weeks ago. the fever has broken there, so, it's probably not a bad thing if we were to see semis cool off a little bit, if you look at the smh, 20% of that is nvidia now, one day does not make a trend. this big reversal, but i definitely think that -- investors were selling it today because maybe this is as good as it gets near term. they're not going to be back and buying it tomorrow if it's down another 3% you're going to wait, and i think your term, digest, is probably a good one. >> watch beta. it sends to go up where when the market's up. but it's a sign of risk appetite and risk taking.

we've seen beta underperforming for the last couple of weeks meaning that even though beta made a new high in july versus the market, it didn't make -- an absolute high, didn't make a new high versus the market that diver jens is so very important, and usually signals that we have more digestion to come so, risk appetite is not there in this market you haven't seen big deep defensives outperform yet. so, think utilities and staples. those aren't flying like you would in a growth scare. watch those for growth estimates. and that leaves you with health care if you want to get more defensive as a way you're not having to reach into the deepest of the defensives. >> that's two health cares >> traded well you know, i think jim talks about it on your show, it's a great show -- >> it is a great show. >> the health care stocks have been off to the races. a name like eli lilly has gotten really ahead of itself you have to imagine that if the market does a back and fill, eli lilly won't be immune to that. >> we'll see if anything changes tomorrow let's talk about the blue skies

of wyoming, where clouds are passing over jackson hole ahead of tomorrow's fed summit and big speech from chair powell will he ease their pain? a lot of discussion, stocks have been down before jackson hole, what happens the week following. could tomorrow inflect or not? >> i kind of like the stock market setup going in and coming out of it. if only because we've corrected, you know, more than 5% on the s&p, 8% on semis we just had this discussion. also, the dollar, if you think about -- a lot of the pain, the indigestion is coming from the dollar which has moved 4% from the day the qqqs topped wh what can the fed do? there's not a lot. i do expect there's messaging that will allow us to understand that the fed has to stay longer, we know that, but that at some point, they're going to be data

dependent and we could see inflation pressures come back. there's nothing really to me, other than the positioning going into this meeting, that can be said here, other than bearish rhetoric, which i don't think they need to give here i think they can take a little bit of a pat on the back in terms of where fed policy has not pushed us into recession >> it was interesting, harker's comments, you would think what the bulls would want to hear, we've done enough, let's give the economy time to absorb these hikes, didn't really help today. >> it didn't tim makes a good point about positioning, and it's summer, it's been a long summer, it's been a long year in the markets here, if you think about it. a lot of folks would love to see a sort speech, not rattle too many feathers. but we said this a lot on this show, a raging stock market, a couple weeks ago, doesn't make the fed's job that much easier when you see the unemployment prints, you know, the first friday of every month at, like, 3.5, 3.6, doesn't make the jobs -- the fed's job that much easier, so, i think, to me, you

know, nice, good old fashioned 10% pull-back in the s&p 500 does make the fed's job easier if economic conditions have been pretty good for the most part, i think a stock selloff might basically give them a little bit of wiggle room, but when the market's raging and there's a mania in the stock market and some of the biggest names in the market, it really is a difficult thing. and going back to that equal weight versus the market cap weight, i look at that 200-day moving average in the spx, down 200 points from here, and that gets you down 10% or so. that's -- that's pretty good if you are bullish, you know, you've taken a lot of the froth out of the market. you have a multiple on the s&p that might not be discounting too many rosy scenarios. >> how do you think about stocks within financial conditions? powell was asked about the stock market daring him, in portugal, by sarah -- >> great job >> i don't really think about it that much. >> i think he does, but he's not -- i think the stock market is in their per urview, but it's

interesting. i think the put in the s&p is a lot lower than where we are now. if there is a fed put, it comes in the form of unemployment rate, between 4.5%, 5%, which we are nowhere near, or the credit marketing melting down, which we show no indication of. so, stock market is in their purview, i don't think they're that worried about it. this move in bond market is making stocks more expensive by the day. and i'm one of the people, maybe i'm wrong, but this 4.25 in the ten-year, i think we're going to go blowing through it. if we get closer to 4.5%, 5%, levels that get us through the levels we saw in october, that's going to be problematic for valuations. >> for sure. let's bring in paul mccauley, teaches at georgetown -- >> yeah, he does >> it's great to have you. i think your general take is that tomorrow will bring a so- so-called validictory speech can you tell us what that means? >> i think he's going to say that policy is in a good place,

a dramatically better place than he was a year ago. most significantly, policy is restrictive. real interest rates are positive and are rising, including at the back end of the curve. so, you're in a good place, with restrictive monetary policy, and in inflation is coming down. so, i think he's going to signal that we're in the end game of this tightening process. he's not going to declare that we're finished, but he's going to declare that we're in the end game, that we're fine tuning and then, his big message is we're going to stay restrictive until inflation comes down meaningfully so, he's going to shift his viewpoint from short-term tactics to more of a strategic view of, we're going to stay restrictive until inflation and/or the labor market cries uncle. >> i was going to say, if you have gone from nine to three with no labor pain, is the message going to be, we're going to get it from nine to two, with a little labor pain?

>> yeah, i think that's fair i don't think he's going to pound the table about that he's going to reinforce the notion that two is still very much the target. he's going to reinforce the notion he wants to see more softening in the labor market. so, yeah, i think your take on it is pretty good. >> paul, georgetown is lucky to have you but i'll say this, there's this belief, i think it's misguided that, beginning of next year, february of next year, we're talking about rate cuts. under what set of circumstances are there rate cuts in the beginning of next year and if there are, in my opinion, because something broke? >> i don't think you can get to early in the year for a cut on the inflation side of things i think you'd have to get there on unexpected weakness in the real economy and particularly unexpected weak ens in the labor market so, i don't think it's inflation

that we get to there, it would be the labor market, and didn't have a sense of that's what's going to happen. i think we're going to slow in the labor market, as we have been slowing, but something, i don't think, is in the cards so, i really think that the key issue for a cut is later in the year, when real rates are going up, because nominal rates are steady, and inflation keeps moving down. some would call that a passive tightening, which would be unwarranted, if it's happening because inflation is coming down so, i think that's the scenario he probably will articulate. it will not be a scenario of an early ease on inflation data, but you would get an early ease, obviously, in the labor market fell out of bed, which i do not expect >> so, professor, this is tim, based upon all of those things that you said, and you were a

major swinging the bond market around, certainly one of the biggest bond shops in the world. would this be a time for asset alocators to pushing out the yield curve, collecting some of these yields, locking in, avoiding reinvestment risk in terms of interest rates that aren't going to collapse, but s isn't this a decent time for investors to take advantage where they can push out the duration curve i don't want to get too wonky. the bottom line is it may be time to be investing in higher yielding fixed income. >> i'm not so sure about sin creasing duration. i would be around neutral, relative to a benchmark. but to be with you, i think the bigger issue is that a barbell of cash and effectively the very long end, has been very successful, as it always is in a tightening campaign. and i think it's -- we're coming to point where you need to sell barbells into bullets, and focus your duration exposure in the

belly of the curve, between three and seven years. >> great stuff paul, always good to have you. thank you so much for staying with us tonight. paul mccauley, talking about jackson hole tomorrow. cameron, you want to turn that wonkiness into a trade >> well, i do think there comes a point where you do want to sell two years and go long the ten-year but that is the point when you are seeing the whites of the eyes of a recession. at a 5.9% in atlanta fed gdp now today, it's too soon to make that call. so, we're sticking to the belly of the curve for now >> tlt is right at a level 4.30ish, levels from october that we topped out at, we blew through it a little bit, so, technicians will say, classic double top, yields are going lower, economy's slowing, but then you get the gdp forecast and wait a second, inflation's still a problem. it's going to go racing through. that's the rub here. if rates go higher, in my opinion, equities go lower >> we'll see if that atlanta fed sticks that's a crazy number. coming up, a lot more on

nvidia is the options action trading or fading the chip giant's move, next. plus, heavy turbulence and boeing, as the new defects are discovered in the max. but first, afterhours action is heating up. affirm, nordstrom, gap on the move we'll dive into those reports, whenfa mey" ckn o. "ston'sba itw ? reduces inflammation? thank the gods. don't thank them too soon. kick pain in the aspercreme.

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welcome back to "fast money. earnings alert on affirm shares moving higher after a beat on the top and bottom lines. revenue guidance for the quarter also topping estimates that conference call got under way at the top of the hour and kate rooney has details. >> affirm surprising on the upside, especially when it came to delinquencies there had been some fearsabout consumers being able to pay back those loans. but credit metrics improved. the ceo on the call just now talking about some of the cost discipline paying off, while still maintaining some of that growth revenue grew 22% year over year. gross merchandise volume was up 25%. 5.5 billion. and one measure of unit economics, revenue less transaction costs, that came in stronger than expected at $182

million. outlook, though, q-1 revenue was above consensus, affirm not guiding on full-year revenue they're blaming the interest rate curve, negative consumer sentiment, they think that's going to persist through the end of the fiscal year executives also expect student loan repayments resuming to be a modest headwind to '24 volumes >> kate, appreciate that tim, as we're talking, nordstrom has comments about delinquencies that kind of echo what macy's said earlier in the week does that make affirm more interesting or less? >> much less i flag that as well. it was interesting when macy's made the announcement and jeff said it, and now nordstrom is saying it. nobody's been talking about that but department stores. if you think about the buy now, pay later audience, and the customer base, look, i think -- maybe their credit metrics improved this quarter, but this was really about better net interest income and where their expenses got better. i wouldn't go near affirm here and i wouldn't be investing in

that sector. i think the story at nordstrom is one that's concerning, because think about the cycle that their consumer has been on and their target demographic it was ideal coming out of covid or in covid. their digital sales are down 13% this quarter year over year. you know, it's just -- these are trends that we're talking about. everything we said earlier tonight talking about the consumer and the backdrop here, i realize it hasn't been in your face, they still have a job, but we're starting to see it >> you look at -- if you look at these metrics alone, the stock should be higher total transactions, 45% up year over year, active customers, 18%, i mean, four of them are very good. of course, the problem is, loan loss provisito go up and they are up $95 million. and that number is going to continue to go higher. for the last year and a half, two years, every rally in the stock, like the one you're seeing now, which, by the way, just gifts us back to what we lost today, has been sold. and i think tim's right.

this is going to happen again. >> 666 doesn't exactly make you feel good couple earnings alerts on nordstrom and began, as well both beating on the top line those calls under way. cnbc's courtney reagan is following that action. >> carl, nordstrom beating earnings by a wide margin on stronger than expected revenues. the retailer on rep itonly reitg guidance it wouldn't have fallen that much if you pulled out the anniversary sale shift into the third quarter from the second quarter here that was just reported there was also sales improvement throughout the quarter the rack sales improved, but still down 4%. the nordstrom business sales fell 10% active, baby, men's apparel, stronger categories. inventory down 17.5% that call is ongoing gap earnings beat by a wide margin, but remove the comparable sales disappointed. online sales fell 11%, store

sales down 7%. old navy down 6%, gap down just 1% full-year sales guidance falling well bell low expectations, noting, quote, the continued uncertain consumer and macro environment. inventory fell 29%, so, that's good got that more under control. and richard dixon officially took over two days ago, so, today is day three he is on the call and he reminded investors, quote, the restructuring is challenging, and a change of this magnitude doesn't come fast. still, our people at every level of the organization have stepped up, made tough calls and championed the progress we've made so far, and we're going to keep going so, big expectations from a leader that is widely lauded from the conversations that i've had with folks that, yeah, he's got a big job in front of him. >> court, thank you very much. let's trade that one can you believe some of the winners and losers in specialty, at least, this week alone? >> yeah, for gap, it's surprising that they can sit out

of of the entire boom in '90s fashion. gap just sits it out i think what we're seeing here is that because the consumer is starting to see signs of having to be more choosey and slowing down, yes, we're seeing real wage growth turn positive, but you're seeing the consumer run out of excess savings. that is pretty much spent down, which just means that that tailwind that we've had behind the consumer likely slows. doesn't mean falling off a cliff. unpr unemployment is still very low just means they are going to be selective. >> you have thoughts on that >> back to school seems disappointing. and when you think about october and student loan repayments kicking in, and i know that was a comment that affirm just made, i suspect for lots of retailers, that's going to be a big headwind when you think about the holiday season, i expect it to be really promotional, at a time when a lot of the retailers have gotten disconnects with their vin toirs maybe back into control. i look at what happened over the last couple weeks in retail

earnings, the only good thing i heard was out of amazon. that was it. and maybe they're starting to flex a little bit and those retail, you know, margins they had were pretty good here. seems like everyone else is doing poorly >> walmart was okay, ulta was okay, as well. nordstrom, though, since the spring -- since march of 2021, $42 stock. you can go back and look lower highs, lower lows, the entire way down. and this move is not going to help that at all and again, when you look at this report, i mean, operating margins beat, yeah, that's good, but sales growth, i mean, year over year declines, that's not going to change any time soon. even if they get inventories in line, nobody's going in there anymore. >> we haven't even talked about shrink and nordstrom's had some examples in l.a., which will be a discussion tomorrow, i'm sure. here's what's coming up next on "fast money." boeing, boeing, gone more turbulence for the aerospace giants, as new defects have been discovered is it time to deplane from this

trade? plus, retail wreckage. a former walmart top executive says the high end consumer is nervous here what red flags is he seeing? he'll join us for the real read, straight ahead you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪ the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ ♪ ♪ (upbeat music) ♪ ( ♪♪ ) woah. ( ♪♪ ) ( ♪♪ )

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welcome back to "fast money. boefing falling hard today as the aerospace giants warns of max delivery delays. the issue could put 737 max deliver little targets under pressure for the second year in a row. tim, a lot of discussion today about a supplier problem is

boeing's problem >> for sure. and look, this is tiresome, as an investor in boeing. some of the safety issues, just another speed bump in the 737, but the reality is, this issue has been going on for some time. spr says it's not going to effect deliveries. it may, but take it to the bottom line for an investor, what goes on with free cash flow here what's the hit i've read, you know, the street says anywhere from 2$200 million to $400 million. based upon their history, you have to believe they're getting it in a normalizing airline industry and everything we've heard over the earnings cycle from the airlines says that's where we are so, you trade this thing from 205, 210, good six-month support. this is not what i wanted to hear, but i think this is largely noise in the long-term >> is the backdrop of better travel trends, long-term, wide body sales, is that good >> yeah, it's great. but this is not a demand story there are so many airlines clamoring for delivery slots

they are pretty much booked out through the decade it's never been about demand it's been about the ability to supply that demand and these supply issues started long before the pandemic did the pandemic exacerbated them, but they've been ongoing for some time. and i think it raises the question about culture and leadership at boeing, simply because we've had this underperformance, we've had these continuous supply chain issues that don't seem to be going away >> remember when southwest started to, like, think about, maybe one day we'll, you know, we could beal -- more than one manufacturer airline do you think that comes back >> listen, boeing has made their future on this plane, for the most part. you talk about the wide body ones, i mean, that seems to be the icing on the cake, so, when you look at a southwest, i mean, they need planes like this they don't need the 777s, that sort of thing. so, the more that you have these sorts of issues, the more likely they are to second source it, right? >> where's the trade, right? spr, spirit aerosystems, the

crux of all of this, got crushed today. we're at levels that we saw in the summer 2020. stock down big today at a certain point, people are going to say, all the bad news has been discounted. and for a trade, this is going to get really interesting really quickly, think >> levels where nobody was flying anywhere. kind of lifkke disney today. >> you are spot on with that >> pretty amazing. still ahead, we're going to go shopping for retail names what names we should add, and maybe remove, from your cart here we'll get those trades for you next. later on, are you suffering from nvidia fomo we'll hit the options pits for a look at the way traders expect that trade to go from here, when "fast money" comes back. catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.ng,m so you know all you need for recovery.

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks selling off as nvidia's post earnings fizzled. worst day for the dow since march. nasdaq nearly 2% move lower. some more afterhours action. marvell, ulta, work day on the move shares of dollar tree plummeting

13%. new 52-week low, despite beating on the top and bottom line company cites a weaker consumer. the struggle hitting a wide array of consumer names. nike shares down 12, now down 11 days in a row, longest streak ever, apple down 10%, disney, starbucks down 7%. for investors, are these moves the high-end consumer is slowing? let's bring in bill simon, former walmart ceo bill, great to have you. we were just talking about nordstrom tonight, echoing macy's on the comments about delinquenc delinquencies. you think the consumer is in three different persons right now, right >> i do. you know, there's -- the high-end consumer who is probably the most confused at this point the, you know, the middle consumer, who is also struggling to deal with pretty high inflation. and then, you know, the lower end consumer, who always is fighting, you know, sort of hand over fist, to find a way to survive. and i think the high-end right

now, and you're seeing it in names like nordstrom, they're just choosing to stay home i think there's a real cautionary tone in that consumer, where they're spending their money, it's on needs and not wants, and it's in tradedown us, as opposed to stretch-ups. >> what does that consumer say when they're told that their real wages are inflecting positive >> yeah, i think what they're told and what they feel are, you know, two different things i think that there's a broad fear that, you know, inflationary pressures are going to continue. we saw american airlines pilots get a huge increase this week, and that's on top of the u.p.s. drivers who got a huge increase last month and so, we see wage pressure continue to push up. that, along with full employment, you know, means we're going to continue to see inflationary pressure, and i think the high end consumer then

sort of inter preflts that as as continued interest rate pressures. >> bill, let's go the other side of the coin. dollar general's at a multiyear low. dollar tree -- these are typically stocks that should hold up in this environment and they're trading awful. more importantly, the commentary is worse does that mean anything? >> it does and really, if you look at dollar tree and tear that apart, actually had reasonably good growth on the top line, but because of their shift that they're seeing into their consumable business, again, which is needs and not wants, that's a lower margin product, and it puts pressure on their margins, and it's really hammering their bottom line. and they're seeing that continue they also cited shrink, along with target and dick's and several others, so, you know, it's -- it's rough going out there. and we've really not seen this combination of high inflation and, you know, recessionary threat in the past, and i think that's what's driving it

>> bill, i'm curious to know what you make of all the shrink discussion some argue, it's an easy way, like the weather, for retailers to hide their mistakes is it overstated, understated? >> you know, probably both of those. it is sort of the excuse du jour once somebody says it, everybody else says, we're feeling it, too, and i sort of feel like that, but if you really just think about how much, you know, 3% shrink at target is, i mean, or, you know, even dick's, that's, like, trainloads multiple trainloads of product just disappearing. and it's hard to imagine that that is just poor management and so, i do think that there's an increase in sort of organized retail theft out there we've seen it, we've seen the pictures of it you know, retailers, just like everything else, have to figure out how to deal with it.

it's not an excuse you it's just a fact, and they've got to figure out how to protect themselves and still find a way to service customers so, it's an excuse, but it's real >> bill, we just had the graphic up, starbucks, nike, disney. at least investors are speaking with their wallets the stocks act very, very poorly i wouldn't put them at the high end consumer discretionary, more an aspirational. so, you have three buckets that you were talking about, as far as retail. what are investors saying about them right now that maybe there is some of that higher end discretionary, but it really is -- it could be aspirational and some of the middle zones to me, as an investor, i find their performance very poor right now, and flying in the face of some of the commentary we're hearing about wages and unemployment and the like. >> yeah, i think you guys were talking about it earlier it's everything. so many macro issues that are -- that are disrupting what was a pretty stable consumer for a lot of years you know, things like, you know, that group of companies you just

mentioned would be the ones that would be impacted by, for example, the college loan repayment resumption so, i think investors look at that and they go, well, we don't know how that consumer is going to behalf. are they still going to buy their $7 latte when they have to repay their loans? maybe they won't so, we'll pass on them for now, until we see what's going to happen so, i think there's a whole lot of people that just don't know what's going to happen that are reacting to what they think the consumer will do >> bill, appreciate you helping us put a coda on this crazy week for retail in general. good to see you. >> you bet, thank you. >> let's trade this one. tim, any of this look enticing >> well, yeah, it looks enticing from both sides of the market. first of all, bill stressing needs not wants. i mean, that's walmart and i don't care if it's trading expensive to itself, that's a place you're going to be happy on the -- on the wants, lululemon is a name i threw out

there as a short yesterday, i'm short nike lululemon is going to be flat year over year on eps, in '24, a lot of the street says they're suddenly going to grow eps by 30%, 40%, i just don't see it. and trading at 35 to 40 times forward, if you do that, is harder for me to believe so, great company, i understand the international growth, i understand that they actually have substantial digital sales and dtc themselves, but is everything we're seeing, is the consumer getting better, are margins getting better and i don't think so and i looked at the chart, at lulu, too, and i felt like it was flat-lining in 370 to 390. i don't think it hurts you to the upside >> one of the calls today defending, i think it was dollar tree, argued they are insulated from e-commerce, because so much of their customers pay in cash, which you can't do online. but that wasn't enough >> tim just mentioned, like, the technicals, you know, if you look at nike, that $100 level is a huge level if you look at starbucks, $95,

huge level and i know that we were just talking before about disney, that $80 level was like an intraday low in the throes of the pandemic, where everything was shut down. so, some of the biggest brands, you know, consumer brands, they're acting very poorly in the stock market, and both technically, they are just broken down. we do have a news alert tonight on hawaiian electric bertha coombs has that >> hey, carl maui county is suing hawaiian electric, in a lawsuit claiming that the company failed to shut off power despite exceptionally high winds and dryconditions according to the lawsuit, warnings had the utility heeded during the predicted high wind gusts, this destruction could have been avoided. now, the lawsuit doesn't offer a number, in terms of what they're looking for in terms of damages, but they are talking about not

just the loss of problemer prop the loss of tax revenue, productivity loss, so this could really be a huge number. meantime, today, hawaiian electric also suspending its dividend, saying in a statement, we're doing everything we can to support all of those who have been impacted and help maui recover. saying that they now expect 95% of customers in the affected areas will have had their power restored by the end of this week carl >> such a tough story. bertha, thank you. coming up, nvidia's blowout quarter and its fall back to earth sending shockwaves in the options pits the outsized action, and where traders see the stock going from here, straight ahead. plus, as the uaw threatens to go on strike, we'll break down how much pain this might cause for the auto stocks, which have already been suffering this summer t ne iba ia n moment

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so, we did see calls outpacing puts by about 3 to 2 the busiest contract were the weekly 500 strike calls that expire a week from tomorrow. we saw about 34,000 of them trading. risking about 1.7% of the current stock price on bets that the stock could retest those highs that we saw overnight. >> mike, thank you of course, for more options action, be sure to tune into the full show tomorrow, 5:30 p.m. eastern time coming up, will the auto workers go on strike more on today's vote deadline and what it might mean for the legacies like ford and gm, when "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. today is the final day for uaw members to vote on a strike authorization, with contracts set to expire in about three weeks. shares of the big three automakers under pressure today. gm leads the losses down two our phil lebeau joins us tonight with a look at what we might get some results on this vote. phil >> it won't be tonight, carl the union shops, and there are dozens of these around the country, they are finishing up

their votes. some have already wrapped them up, but a lot are wrapping up today. here's what we expect. all the big three local shops have to finish by the end of today. over 90% of the members are expected to approve a strike authorization. if it's less than 90%, people will be surprised. the results will be announced tomorrow at 11:00 a.m. by the head of the uaw, sean paine, he will be doing a facebook live, where he says, hey, here are the results, and he will once again be hammering what they want. and it's four things they want a 40% pay increase through 2027, including 20% immediately, cost of living adjustments, they haven't been in the contract for at least a decade and then you have job guarantees, which they always are looking for, and instead of a 40-hour work week, they want a 32-hour work week. you look at shares of gm, ford, over the last six months, we cannot say this enough, most people look at these stocks and they say, i'm not touching them until we see a resolution, and we know what the labor costs are

going to be over the next four years. separate from that, then, is the question of, how do they fund the transition to electric vehicles which is front and center in the negotiations takes fewer people to build an electric vehicle the uaw knows that, everybody knows that so, if you're the uaw, you want those job guarantees that is at the heart of a lot of the negotiation. >> we'll wait for those numbers tomorrow morning phil, thank you. guy, do you agree with the view among some that stellantis is the most vulnerable? >> yes, they have a problem. but look over the last 25 years in terms of the stocks i mean, you can make an argument the last ten years have been the best ever for automakers, yet, the stocks have gone no more gm and ford are the same price they were when i was in hoop i don't think this resolution is going to help the stocks >> guys? >> well, i think it's likely

that the union gets what it wants, because it's the perfect time to strike you have high inflation, you have a tight labor force, you still have supply chain issues, which does this make the legacy automakers increasingly uncompetitive versus the internationals, which have labor costs $10 less an hour, and tesla, another $10 less. so that is an issue for margins. >> tim, we have been able to avoid the worst-case at companies like u.p.s >> yeah, well -- i mean, if it's a 32-hour work week, you know, welcome to france. i mean, this is crazy. look, i've owned gm for a long time and i look at 4 1/2 times trailing and i've been wrong i mean, i look at the profitability in the last quarter, the reaffirmation, the free cash flow generation, and this stock is extremely attractive to me, even though we know their i.c.e. business is slowly winding down and we don't know what's going on with ev it's very frustrating, and i'm not going to tell people to rush out and buy these stocks

i agree it's an overhang, but they have never been run better. and i think these labor costs are absolutely priced in >> all right, guys, interesting. see what the authorization says tomorrow coming up next, your final trades power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. you founded your kayak company because you love the ocean- not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates

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time for the final trade let's go arneound the horn. tim? >> carl, thank you for joining us guy, short stay in the win column for the yanks and boeing you have to buy this weakness. we've heard this noise before. 200 is your cameron? >> health care etf >> dan >> yeah, semis i think they're probably going to have a difficult couple of months here, so, i remain a seller of smh. >> you had fun admit it >> i did >> what are the chances faber is watching right now >> 20% >> by the 20% chance that he's watching, david, your mets are miserable. i'm sorry. and you can tell him tomorrow he's just not a happy guy. so, maybe turn that frown upside down, david faber. by the way, in terms of turning things upside down, look at marathon petroleum

all-time high in an energy stock, c.q thank you for joining us >> thank you, guys really good to be here, had a lot of fun, as always. thank you for watching "fast money. as you know, "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere. and i promise to help you find it "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to save you a little money my job is not just to explain, educate but put days like today into context so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer most of the time traders have the memory of a mayfly many of them couldn't even tell