to the end. jett lawrence is perfect. jo shimoda gets kawasaki a win in the last race of the year. they do not go the entire season without a victory. it is honda and the lawrence brothers here, chase sexton in supercross. it was unbelievable for the big red machine. absolutely perfect for ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> and i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. >> tracking gains in asia and a bid to boost the sputtering market. gina raimondo stresses the important relationship with china as she touches down in beijing for a series of touchy talks with business leaders. fed chair jay powell delivers a hawkish speech at

jackson hole saying he is not afraid to take action against inflation leaving the door open to further hikes. another day in court for trump's lawyers as the special counsel looks to confirm a trial date in federal court next year on the charges that the former president tried to illegally overturn the 2020 election results. happy bank holiday. if you are tuning in to the channel, there is a lot to go through in terms of market reaction. we had the jackson hole symposium last week. all eyes were on what the fed chair jay powell was going to say and while the take away was that he deparidn't really surpr in the speech, saying the fed is prepared to raise rates further

if appropriate, but not a lot of new information. that reaction was positive for the end of the day for wall street. we saw stocks end the day higher and yields tracing higher. the hand over overnight was an issue for asia. whee have the ibex in spain up d ftse mib support. cac 40 is up .75%. an dax is up in germany. we will get macro data to watch out for this week. ecb minutes in the middle of the week and then we will get drips of eurozone inflation numbers. this is going to be important data for the ecb and determining what they will do in the september meeting. they heare leaning toward no

hikes, but it can change. something to watch out for this week. let's talk more about what happened in the asian market session. a lot of green on the board. the knikkei up 1.7. shanghai is up 1.1. it is rare that walk in in the morning to see green overnight. the reason is china announced they are having a duty on stock trade after a major share index fell to a nine-month low last week. the finance ministry is cutting the levy on trade to 0.5%. a greater chinese market is up on the move as you can see. positive reaction there, of course, and reaction to the announcement. on the flip side, we continue to watch the property sector.

look at the evergrande shares. down 80% on the first day of trade following the 17-month long suspension. the shares of the property group resumed trading and guidance by the hong kong exchange to avoid de-listing if it reached 18 months. evergrande posted a narrow loss in the first half of the year. the first day of trading back after 17 months. it is down 80%. sticking with china and moving to the political side of things. gina raimondo says it is important that u.s. and china reestablish ties as she kicks off three days of talks with officials. she warns the u.s. will not compromise on matters of u.s. security. washington tightened rules on

businesses in china. what a busy morning for china news, joumanna. to my mind from the market, the real standout piece of news is the halving of the stamp duty on trading. this is a clear effort from authorities to bring investment back to the country. the view is that it is a piecemeal measure not necessarily to offset the property market. >> if you look at the measures announced the last couple weeks, one take away is the hurdle is high for them to come out with a massive extraordinary stimulus. what they have come out with is little measures here and there to shore up sentiment and alleviate the problems in the property stekector. they are short of coming out with a massive big bang solution to what is going on here.

i think we will have to see how the data evolves and if there is more contag tagion from the proy sector and if the management holds up on the consumption side. consumption so far is holding up. >> to the point about the bar being high for the authorities to deliver something for the market to consider a positive means we are looking at the inflows the last month with the data i read this morning. shanghai listed shares this month through hong kong's stock connect program topped $10 billion. totally reversed the inflows from july when the expectation was bigger stimulus from authorities. >> it is the tie-in from the u.s. investors selling out of positions in china. you know, that goes back to the currency and what we have seen with the weakness of the yuan

that they are trying to fix. you remember a couple of weeks ago, they set to fix the biggest gap versus the prior day in the bid to bring the currency back because it has been weakening so much. the reason it is weakening is because the capital outflows with the money leaving the country. what can they do to lure money back in? they introduce the stamp duty tax cut which is essentially what we got overnight. let's see if it does succeed at bringing the international money back in. >> fascinating to see the levers the authorities are using. back in the u.s., fed chairman jay powell says inflation is too high and the fmoc is prepared to hike rates further. they must move carefully as they move forward. the fed cannot claim victory in the fight against inflation yet.

the fed promised to chekeep up battle. >> we tightened policy significantly the last year. inflation has moved down from the peak, a welcome development, but are prepared to move rates higher until we are confident inflation is moving down. >> after the powell speech, the chance of the pause in september stands at 80% according to the fed funds futures with the odds of the hike in november at 50%. the managing partner and head at chatham financial joins us. thank you for joining us to analyze the messaging from jay powell on friday. in your view, did we hear anything significantly new from the fed chair? >> i think from the perspective, the key emphasis taken away is

higher for longer. the expectation that the rates are remaining at the current level or higher for longer than the market anticipated. the fed has raised rates all year and the market continued to price in rate cuts would come in and soon as the end of the year and beginning of 2024. i think what was clear from the message on friday is that is not the case and we saw that through with the forward pricing where rate cuts are not expected by the markets until june of 2024. i think the key message to take away is higher for longer. >> just bringing it back to the near term, between now and september, what are the most important metrics or releases that investors should be focusing on? >> obviously anything that is around that core inflation data

because the headline inflation has been coming down. there's still issues with the core numbers and feeding into that, of course, is the resilience of the labor market. the u.s. labor market is ultra tight all year. you are starting to see so softening in that. that is the balance of what the fed are looking at is the interest rate rises having an impact on the economy and particularly within the labor market or can we afford to tighten through the year sdplchyear. >> jackiejackie, does it matter for another rate hike? we are close to the end of the road with the rate hiking cycle. we may be there or we may not be there. will it affect the path for risky assets in they go for one

more? >> yeah, because i think there is a question of credibility of central banks in general and ability to have the balance with controlling inflation and an not impacting the economy too much. if you remember back to two years ago where the fed absolutely were focused on the message of inflation being transitory which turned out to not be the case. it impacts credibility. if the central bank credibility is questioned, it impacts risk assets. >> for how long are you expecting the rates to stay in restrictive territory? will they wait for headline inflation getting to 2% before they shift rates down or can they do that before? >> it is an interesting question because what is baked in the question is the neutral rate of interest and at what point is

the absolute reit still restrictive or neutral? that came out on friday as well. powell was unable to clarify and what he saw was the neutral rate of interest which is expansionary or restrictive. from the market perspective, as i say, there is an expectation these rates will remain at the higher levels into the middle of next year. the rate cuts are priced in, but it is not substantial. i would reiterate the message of higher for longer and not expect the fed will start to cut soon. >> jackie, you know, i feel as market watchers, we spend time analyzing single speeches. we forget jackson hole symposium is all central bankers from all over the world and they discuss the challenges bankers face. one take away i got was not only

from powell's speech, but something from lagarde. we are facing shocks that are common like energy and geopolitical shocks. we could see increases passed on further. looking ahead, we may see more of the inflationary pressure and it is inn comcumbent upon the cl bank to go foort. -- foorward. >> we feel they have to learn as they go. there is an argument to be made we are in a mode of longer-term permanent inflation environment. that doesn't mean exceptionally high inflation, but dealing with the situation of the energy shock from earlier this year and how that impacts the economy is certainly something that hasn't

gone away. while countries have managed to comp with alternatives, it is a huge risk and impact inflation. >> jackie, to round out the discussion around the structural f factors moving forward, is there a chance the fed increases the price target? >> it has been discussed and the fed moved from the target to the average level of inflation. if you think about the language they were using earlier this year or the end of last year, we can tolerate inflation going slightly above or below the target so long as we can average out at 2%. from the friday comments, there was reemphasis of the 2% level. there is no moving that target soon. >> jackie, pleasure to have you

on. thank you for taking time on your august bank holiday to chat to us. jackie bowie from chatham financial. if you want to get involved in the conversation, we talked about the news from china overnight as well as the takes from jackson hole, get involved in the conversation. we are on x. coming up on the show, we'll be live from new delhi where the trade commissioner spoke to cnbc at the summit. stick around.

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welcome back. eu trade commissioner dombrovskis saying that russia should rejoin the grain deal. we have tambir at the conference. tambir, wonderful to hear your perspective. the one issue i have with what dombrovskis told you is russia is joining the deal is contingent of russia exporting

their own grain and fertilizer. how will they square the circle? it looks like we have lost tambir. the black sea grain deal and the fact that russia pulled out of it has had serious knock-on effects of the price of grain. there sis a surplus of grain an the attacks on infrastructure. we have tambir back with us now. we have lost her. let's play the tape of the conversation that, i tambir had over the weekend. >> we are seeing russia using food as a weapon of war. it has now moved out of the black sea grain initiative and deliberately destroying ukraine and stealing ukraine grain and

it is not only creating a problem for ukraine, but problem for the countries across the world because they are the ones which are suffering the most in terms of food security and in terms of food affordability. we are working intensely at the g20 meeting on restoration of the black sea grain initiative and supporting the efforts to kyiv and united nations in this regard. we are also providing alternative exports for ukraine and so far they have been able to move 45 million tons of exports through the european union. in any case, it is important to continue to put pressure on aggressor russia to stop the aggression, but stop using food as a weapon of war. >> do you see cooperation from russia? >> as we see, russia has pulled

out of the initiative which we are supporting the diplomatic efforts of u.n. and kyiv to bring russia back to this. >> and what with -- what do you see with russia coming back and is there a timeline to bring the deal to resolution? >> it is clear we need the black sea corridor. we need a back-up solution with the solidarity lanes. it is important. >> that was our tambir speaking to the eu trade commissioner dombrovskis on the sidelines of the conference in new delhi. let's look at the corporate world. bayer is in focus. the giant needs to demerge two

of the three businesses adding the name to the roster of activists calling for the breakup. artisan wants bayer to sell off two units. the ceo is leaving no stone unturned and will give detailed plans next year. joumanna, this has taken so many twi twists. context is key. the company has been under pressure since the monsanto acquisition in 2016. the shares have been under performing. down nearly 40% in the last five years. if you look at the share price chart, it hasn't done muchthis year. it has been struggling. shareholders understandably frustrated with the performance. the news from artisan showing it

is not the first, but adding to the pressure. >> bluebell was another highly spoken activist investigor. they were calling for the break up. you know the issue with monsanto. it cost the former ceo his job. a new ceo in town. i was reading about the company. i hadn't realized this. bayer's science unit is the second largest global supplier in the industry. i did not realize how much scale they had. the numbers account for half of the bayer sales. they are not calling for getting rid of the unit, but demerging the lower businesses including the pharmaceutical businesses. >> when wthe deal came out,

monsanto business came out. this is after the litigation. they were seen as the innovators along with others which went to the chinese as the innovators in agriculture. the business is excellent. what was it doing with a pharmaceutical company? investors think there is value trapped in the business as a result. >> it feels like there will be changes which have to be made with bayer. we will keep an eye on that. another story i'm watching is a personal interest in this which is set to due with credit suisse. the latest from switzerland. credit suisse is a subsidiary of ubs. posted a $4 billion net loss in the second quarter oaccording t the swiss newspaper. this after credit suisse flagged pre-tax losses for the quarter.

ubs declined to comment to cnbc. this is important because we have the earnings for the second quarter on thursday. i'll fly over to cover them. this is the first time we get earnings of the combined entities. we get credit suisse up to june. anything before that is not included. the local newspapers are reporting that credit suisse will post almost a $4 billion loss. key here, julianna, if you remember the story from a couple weeks ago, ubs reacted strongly to the announcement they would no longer rely on state aid. that was a crucial piece of information at the time. the state aid was put together to cover losses up to 9 billion swiss franc. the fact they say they don't need it any more tells you they are comfortable with the amount of losses which are expected to come from credit suisse. >> you can see the share price in ubs up 1.25%. perhaps on the back of this

news. it feels like a pivotal moment for ubs with the strategy moving forward. >> i'm curious to see what will come out of the earnings. i would say permasonally one thg that i'm looking forward to the information with the outflows. the outflows was demise of credit suisse. did the money come back? was it reallocated to ubs? did it leave the financial system as well? ubs was considering issuing at-1 bonds. that's a question i'll put to the floor. >> i think a lot of credit suisse employees will be keen to hear what is being said. and thyssenkrupp sees a 90%

jump in sales since the market debut in july. it expectss orders to continue this year. also coming up on our bank holiday show, former president args prepares for two key hein in his legal battle. we will have more after this break.

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welcome back to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> and i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines. >> and beijing halves the duty on stock trade in a boost to help the sputtering market. and gina raimondo touches down in beijing for a series of talks with officials and business leaders. fed chair jay powell delivers a modest speech in jackson hole saying he is not afraid tie ao take action again high inflation. another day in court for

trump's lawyers as the special counsel look force a date for the trial next year over trying to illegally overturn the 2020 election results. here is a look at the u.s. futures as we are looking at a green start to trade on wall street. the rally on friday helped the s&p and nasdaq break the three-week losing streaks as investors digest the remarks from jay powell from jackson hole on friday. everything relates to the non-farm payroll report on

friday. as for europe, we have the uk markets here. we are trading here with gains. every region is trading today and is benefitnefitting from th rally. the most interesting news over the weekend is from beijing. they are halving the duty charge on the stock market. trying to reinvigorate the market there and improve liquidity conditions. they also have gone ahead and changed the rules with ipos. the securities regulatory is slowing the pace of ipos. trying to bring liquidity back to the market. green across the board for the asian session. >> let's bring in daniel morris. da daniel, wonderful to have you with us from bnp. i'll start with the china news. we see reaction in the markets today as julianna described.

the news of the reduction of the duty. is that going to do anything to help allay concerns? >> i don't think so. we have actually had the mini rallies over the last few weeks with the announcements from the government which aren't particularly momentous. you get a sharp rally in the market and then they fade. that tells us two things. you get such a big bounce on not particularly monumental news shows how the markets are primed for the recovery if you get substantive measures. these are modest. that is why the rally fades. >> if we get more substantive measures and julianna and i were talking about everything the chinese authorities have done is piecemeal. little things here and there. not the big boost stimulus which is what they would have done years ago. the bar for the stimulus is higher. how high is the bar?

how weak does the data need to be to take that route? >> it is already weak enough. the question is why the government hasn't stepped in with more measures. you are looking for more stimulus. that is not necessarily what we want to see. we appreciate that level glob -- globally be ly being too hi. that is what got us to the point now. we want to see significant measures, but not fiscal stimulus, but address the core us issue of the property sector. >> what would you like to see with the property sector? what can they do here? >> they need to, i guess, put the households at ease which invested. bought a flat they may not get. i don't want to say insolvency across the sector, but those houses may not get built. what do you do with the people

who invested the money and how do they deal with the confidence in the housing sector? the government has been reluctant to deal with the help for households. >> how much of a drag is the chinese story with the economic growth and in turn the european market outlook? >> it varies. it is not true if you look at trade and sales. it is very important for certain markets. germany being the biggest one. what happens in germany is important for europe. we have seen those vulnerables with the weak gdp prints for germany. it is a concern when they deal with other challenges within germany. it doesn't help the government. >> why have european markets ab been resilient and the dax considering the data? >> it is good news and bad news. what we want to look at here is

the very good recovery or had one, i guess, until a few months ago in europe relative to the expectations. i think, frankly, if the dax has been resilient, we are cautious. we see europe is slowing down more quickly than the u.s. it hasn't had the stimulus from the u.s. you have interest rates which have gone up. we think that will weigh on growth and profits. we don't think expectations that analysts have for the profits will be realized. >> that is your take from the earnings season with the resilience of stock markets? >> it is backward looking. it is good. i think the key point is guidance is positive and it is better than historically. that's fine. looking ahead, the next three or six or nine months, in europe, it will not be a surprise to the same degree. >> let's turn to jackson hole. did you learn anything new from what powell said on friday?

>> i would say it was not a surprise insofar as you wanted him to continue to sound tough. the fed wants to see market expectations for more cuts sooner than next year than the fed said. they will get the market up to where they are. they want to sound ough. that is how he spoke. i think this is the message. it is data dependent. we don't know how inflation or growth will evolve. neither does the fed. we have non-farm payroll coming up. we will see it shows another strong month which will move you back to the hawkish hcamp. >> what has driven the yields higher? joumanna and i discussed it on the show. there seems a lot of factors have contributed. >> one with ofof the key things%

treasury yields. i think the fitch downgrade was the catalyst, not the cause. that will not drive treasuries high for that long, but it highlighted the worries and that is discussed at jackson hole at debt levels. go back to the global financial crisis. that was a debt problem. eurozone was a debt problem. we have higherdeficits. it has to be a risk premium and that is part what have we are seeing. >> i would reframe it as a debt problem. now what you are beginning to see is the growth profile for all of the economies. look at europe, the pmi numbers were terrible. china. we are beginning to see a downturn there. does that make you worried about the outlook for what may happen in 2024? >> not yet. for the u.s., certainly there is

room for growth to be strong. we want to remember the long-run potential growth for the u.s. is 1.5%. we are above the rate. there is room for the u.s. to slow, but have positive growth. hopefully no crisis on the near term. >> let's get your take on the best plays in the market right now. what offers the most attractive opportunity for return? >> given that growth is slowing and high government bond yields and treasury yields, we think fixed income is the most attractive on the risk/reward basis. we expect yields to go lower in the months ahead. if we want inflation to slow, that will require growth slowing. that seems to be the better play for us as we have good returns for equities. it is with equities and what will you do for me now? it is a big upward trajectory. >> clear. daniel, a pleasure to have you on. thank you for the conversation.

daniel morris from bnp. washington, d.c. judge could set a trial date in the case of former president trump in the attempt to overturn the 2020 election results. trump wants to delay the trial beyond the election. trump will watch a key hearing in georgia as mark meadows looks to have his case in the state's election probe moved to federal court. for more on what lies ahead this week in washington, we have nbc's drew petri petrimoux with. >> reporter: good morning. these are hearings that could have implications in cases against former president trump and other defendants accused of trying to overturn the 2020 election. mark meadows, the former chief of staff, is due in the atlanta

courtroom today. meadows is seeking to have his case switched from state to federal court. that move could impact other defendants in the case, including trump. a hearing in d.c. on monday, the judge could set a trial date in one of trump's cases. his rivals in the republican primary are hoping to put a dent in the lead in the polls with the first debate behind them. president biden is trying to appear above the fray refusing to comment on the legal problems. in the georgia case, georgia secretary of state, brad raffensberger, is involved in the phone call with trump. it is a key part of the case against trump and his co-defendant. back to you. >> thank you, drew. i appreciate you waking up early

to join us. let's continue the conversation around what is happening in d.c. with desmond king. professor of american government at oxford. professor, thank you for being with us. we are, as we heard from our reporter from nbc, awaiting a trial date from the former president for the trial to take place in washington, d.c. this is not the first of legal proceedings the former president is facing. any of the legal proceedings poised to have a negative impact on trump in the polls? >> not so far. people who didn't like him, continue not to like him. those who do like him, certainly seem to be encouraged by this or willing to continue to be supportive. with some of the public opinion approval ratings, trump has a higher rating than the president. >> somebody who hasn't been doing well in the polls as expected is ron desantis.

last week, the first republican primary debate didn't do much to help him in terms of sentiment. he was deemed to have had a really underwhunderwhelming his performance. he is dealing with the imagine major storm to hit florida. is he still a contender in the race? >> that's an excellent question. i have never seen him as a particularly strong candidate. we need to measure this in terms of public traction and visibility and recognition in the polls. he severcertainly has more of t than other hopefuls on the republican side. he has nothing like the recognition of support that the former president trump has at the moment.

he doesn't seem to connect very well with voters as might be expected at the moment. i think this is a guessinggame. if something were to happen to trump in the process, where he was no longer a candidate, then everything changes. desantis would have some recognition and some capacity to move forward. at the moment, i think he's struggling to have a clear identity which is not just trump-like, but his distinct policies of the you have to see him in the field. many of the other candidates who were at the debate have really tiny ratings of recognition with the republican base. desantis is almost always in double figures where many are struggling to get above 2% or 3%

recognition. to that point of view, things could change. do remember that trump, when he won the presidential nomination process in 2016, to then become the republican candidate in november of that year, also emerged from a large field of 10 or 12 other hopefuls. whittled down to seven or eight. he dominated them. i'm not really surprised that trump is continuing to be the key salient candidate at the moment. potential candidate. >> we were talking about this last week and saying at this point, the rest of the candidates are playing for second place in the hope that maybe trump is not able to stand for president with the legal issues. delay has been a very favorable tactic employed by the former president with the legal issues

of tissues. now we are talking about the court hearings. march onward, we will get a bunch of legal issues and court hearings and cases. trump will have to attend court. a lot of media coverage around what he will go through next spring. how is that likely to play to his advantage? >> this is a very important question. the trump team believes this is playing to him favorable. they are willing for him to go in and out of court to get the publicity with the secret service arranged caravans and to leave and get the photographs and so forth. i think the complexity of the cases is such that more many ordinary american voters, ordinary in the sense they are not spending their life paying attention to these things

closely. the details will be confusing. the cases is unlikely to be as devastating as commentators see the cases to be once they read the charge sheet in georgia and from the department of of justi in washington. whether the carroll case will linger is probably more important. that is the case where the decision has been made and there was a clear verdict against the former president, which i know he challenges, but nonetheless that gave us a clear view of that case and the plaintiff won. i think it will would be -- i think the publicity will be good for him. if in the event he would likely go to jail before the presidential election with secret service protection and

coverage, it would be a convoluted process which could not damage his standing with those who support him. >> what does it tell you about the state of u.s. politics that out of pretty much all of the nominees or candidates running for the presidential nomination standing on the stage last week, pretty much all of them raised their hand to continue to support trump if he was convicted for a felony. what does that tell you about how the republican party has no choice but to rally behind trump even in a flawed legal situation? >> it was a very striking moment when that question was posed and the vast majority of the nominees or hopeful no, mminees hands went up. i agree with you.

the republican party is dominated by the institution is dominated by the trump candidacy and legacy of his presidency. that sets theparameters in which these other candidates have to seek the nomination. none of them could afford to appear to break with those parameters. they have to commit to the sort of things that trump did. on the broader question of american democracy, if you leave the sheet with the indictment for the january 6th insurrection on capitol hill, that gives you a sense there is a lack of commitment to aspects of

democracy. this presents a challenge to american voters. i don't subscribe to the dramatic view that the u.s. is on the brink of a civil war or that democracy is clasollapsing. i think it confirms in which the way conflicts arise about core democratic values and they have not been settled. there's a lot of movement and obviously one is voting policy. voting policy is not a federal policy. it is charged to the states and it continues every ten years and more often to be the subject of legislation at the state level which both suppresses and

expands the electorate. we should see this against the background. what is alarming is some of the deeply problematic aspects of american history which voters may have thought were settled seem not to have been settled. you mentioned the beginning with desantis rushing back to florida for the crises. that is an aspect. >> it is really interesting to frame it from the perspective of how we look back at this period in history. sir, thank you very much for coming on the show. desmond king. professor of american government at the university of oxford. coming up on the show, a major week ahead of the u.s. data front andinvestors digest the commentsrom ckn fjasohole. we will break it all down. has no idea she's sitting on a

goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

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welcome back to the program. big week for the u.s. data. second quarter g sdp on wednesd and the big event on friday with the non-farm payroll. we have data due thursday and

getting official pmi data from china as well as the manufacturing pmi. on the corporate side, earnings season is continuing with the br broadcom reporting. >> big week for macro data. i'm heading to zurich tomorrow. we have a couple of interviews to bring you. thursday sis the big event for ubs. they had to push the q2 earnings to thursday to give analysis. that will be one to watch. >> a big one in the banking space with investors and employees. those institutions keen to hear what the ceo has to say. let's look at the wall street open today. we have green across the board. after the strong session on friday, the gains continue as investors continue to price in what they learned from jay powell on friday. as we heard on this program, not

a huge amount came from the fed chair. i think a lot of the market optimism is the big news from china overnight which boosted china markets and european markets and now u.s. markets. that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5." we begin with stocks kicking off the last week of august trade in the green after the best day in three weeks. investors appearing to look past jay powell's promise to keep rates higher for longer. powell maintaining that commitment in jackson hole on friday. roger ferguson weighs in this hour. in china, a high stakes meeting for gina raimondo as beijing does the best to keep the floor under the sagging