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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  August 29, 2023 4:00am-5:00am EDT

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that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines. european stocks open firmly in the green catching the positive hand over from u.s. and asia. and nn group tops the stoxx 600 after the net income of 600 million euro. the ceo speaks out about the
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rates. >> higher rates is good news. also also, we are strong with 201%. if we would have volatility in interest rates, our sensitivities to upward or downward are low. u.s. commerce secretary gina raimondo proms ises to open dialogue with china and stressing there are no compromises on national security. mark your diaries. the date is set for the washington trail. a day before the super tuesday primaries. warm welcome to "street signs." happy tuesday. welcome back to work if you are joining us from the uk.
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here in europe, we are marching higher again this morning. the last week of trade for august has started out positively for a number of markets. wall street with a strong session yesterday. asia strong overnight. now europe is joining the pack again up 0.4%. in terms of the breakdown from the regionals, here is where we sit this morning. green across the board. ftse 100 closed yesterday and did not participate in the rally. the stoxx 600 overall gained yesterday. you are seeing decent gains .30% for ftse mib and spain. up 0.3%. the cac 40 is lagging. smi in switzerland is lagging. dax is up .20%. breaking it down into individual stocks, there is one notable name moving higher.
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nn group it is up 10%. investors pleased with the cap at that time generation in that -- capital generation. you have adecco seeing selling pressure down 1.6%. from the sector perspective, a tilt toward basic resources and real estate. basic resources up 1.3%. china is the big news with the chinese authorities cutting the stamp duty in half trying to reinvigorate the market and get investors to put money to work in china. now we have u.s. commerce secretary gina raimondo announcing washington and beijing will launch a series of working groups aimed at easing trade tensions and export controls. this comes as part of the visit to beijing where raimondo is holding tax wit talks with busi
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leaders and officials. sam filed this report. >> reporter: u.s. and china have agreed to improve the move during the secretary raimondo's trip to beijing which is among the tricky visits from the u.s. officials this summer to address the thorny issues of trade and investment. the two sides have agreed to hold regular talks on commercials issues and set up a working group with business representatives and held twice a year starting in 2024. that is despite criticism from some republican lawmakers of the t trip. the first of the meetings is expected to be held in beijing today. the goal is to reduce misunderstanding with security policies and be transparent.
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raimondo met with the counterparts in beijing yesterday to address micron and china addressed the worries about tariffs. they talked about the export controls on key metals. raimondo held meetings with the officials at the culture and tourism bureau. the channels are now a show of g goodwill, but some feel more concrete actions are needed moving forward. i'm sam baddas, nbc business news. >> in terms of market reaction, you have green across the board for the asian markets. hong kong up 1.9%. 1 1.2% higher in shanghai. it has been a global rally taking place. different pictureto the post jackson hole reaction this time last year. turning to currency markets.
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the sterling is also holding relatively steady against the dollar at 126.12. the u.s. dollar is flat against the chinese currency. we have the global head of barclays now to talk about the currency markets. >> good to see you. >> let's kickoff with the yuan. pboc has been trying hard to arrest the decline which was 5% over the dollar this year. even if the pboc is able to arrest the decline, what will it take to actually reinvigorate the currency? >> i think the only way for a sustainable path of yuan strength is growth for chaina. in the same way they are trying
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to control the decline in equity markets there, they are trying to encourage capital flows. that is all great. it is great they are trying to use the reserve pool to stabilize currency. historically, growth is a huge driver. there are key mechanisms. low growth implies low rates. that is a bigger determining in the balance of payments or capital flows all together. you need growth. >> is there anything else the pboc can do? is it up to other authorities in china with the market changes over the weekend with the halving of the trading stamp duty to spur inflow into the stock markets. >> i think your question is multilayered. i think they have a lot, particularly in times of su surpluses, they have the capacity to stabilize. they have not changed through
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reserves with the trend in the cur currency. it is periods where they lean against the market and off it goes again. i think that the fundamental question for the inflows is two things. an opportunity for growth as we said earlier. policies to encourage growth. the other thing is the number of policies the last two-to-three years, have been meant to control key industries. that has led to a negative sentiment on chinese assets. i think some sense that these industries can thrive again to be a bigger driver longer term than stamp duty. >> where do you see the currency going to the midterm? how low can we go? >> it is hard to say one can draw a line in the sand and say these are the lows. you know, everyone is a bit
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confused of what they are announcing now is the ultimate set of measures or a precursor to other things. it is important to remember this could be a signal before bigger growth initiatives. if those don't happen, i don't think this is necessarily it. >> it is interesting you say that. all of the comments around these various measures have been put forth is a piecemeal approach. what the authorities have done is not enough to counter the downturn happening in the property market especially. is there any reason to believe there is a big package coming? >> it is hard to read what is in their minds, obviously. their proclamations are a lot more pro-growth and a lot more promising than before. one needs to keep an open mind. the realization of the
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proclamations so far, as you say, piecemeal at best. >> let's talk about the u.s. treasuries with what is going on with the dollar. did you see this coming ? >> i didn't. our strategist, i'm sure, has done a tremendous job calling this. kudos to him. i think the re-acceleration of u.s. data has been a very important part. i think the shock premium issuance from the japanese lifting of the yield curve control is another shock. the fact that we still haven't priced what our economist calls another hike in november probably means investors still need to stay on the cautious side. we have gone quite a long way from the strategist stated on
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that front. >> in the issuance and this is related to the dollar and outlook for the dollar, who is going to absorb the issuaissuan? >> i think historically demand, whether domestic, or institutional, has a demand for treasuries. the main question is the price. that's what the market is trying to negotiate. what price will we absorb the issuance? does that necessarily mean the dollar will come under some kind of supply/demand pressure? i don't think so of. i think so far the dollar is trading weaker than most people think. one of the biggest questions is why is the dollar not a lot stronger. >> interesting. a different framing. dollar index is up 2% in the last month alone. >> correct. a lot of people would have seen it stronger. i think part of the reason why
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it has not been as strong as it should because of the goldilocks issue. if it challenges, the dollar could surge despite the rising yield. >> what could rally the dollar? every scenario is the goldilocks for the greenback. >> the market is not anticipating the moderation of the u.s. data. some bigger stimulus from china. going back to the previous discussion. then re-acceleration from europe which most people have written off at the moment. >> let's talk about europe. that is where i was going to go next. you think about europe over the u.s., the data has been weak from europe and the debate is raging on as to whether the ecb will deliver another rate hike at the next meeting in two weeks
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time. what is priced into the euro in the outlook for rates in europe? >> i think this generally is a sense of diffivurgence to be priced. there are a couple of reasons why. the first one is if you look at the data apples to apples, you know, surveys have been soft as european surveys. european data has been strong. the comparison is not as bad when you compare apple thes to apples. while both economies, the u.s. is out performing europe, but you are not deverging. it could be a bigger element if europe is on a bigger path. u.s. accelerates and europe
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decelerates. that is yet to be seen. >> there is a chance we could see europe take a dovish stance on policy if we see the data continue to deteriorate on the path it begun to ptake? >> i think our economists have been going down that path. they have been following the decline in credit growth and weaker services sector. the weaker environment with china. there is that chance. what has been missing is inflation which is sticky. the ecb inflation target as we have seen in the jackson hole speeches. >> lagarde made clear that is the priority. let's finish up with your best trade ideas. what are you advising clients to do? >> i think in fx space, we are focusing on the dollar. we are trying to tell our customers that opportunities are outside the dollar debate.
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we like higher yielding currencies, those exposed to the u.s. economy and latin america. i think low yield and cyclical currencies are probably going to be the funding currencies and under performers. >> super. thanks for the conversation. the global head of strategy fx at barclays. we love to hear from you. if you have views on fx, get in touch with me on x @cnbcjulianna. joumanna has big ubs earnings this morning. coming up on the show, disagreements over billions of euros of funding requests. we will bring you the details after this break. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a
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welcome back to "street signs." let's talk through the big movers in the market this morning. nn group at the top of the stoxx 600. the stock is up 10% after
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reporting first half net income of 600 million euro and operating of 1.4 billion euro of the company. it is on track to deliver for the year and into 2024. the ceo told the customers it could benefit from the elevated interest rates sdp. >> higher rates is good news. if you look at our solvency, it is strong. if we have volatility in interest rates, our sensi sensitivities are very low. we can sustain a strong solvency position. a combination of a robust the solvency and the ability to offer new products and higher investment yields mean higher rates is positive for us as a company. >> those positive results from nn are lifting the sector. strong gains across the board.
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prudential up 5.5%. phoenix up 5.4% this morning. turning attention to the airline space of. flights to and from the uk have been disrupted and the technical problem hitting the air traffic control system. it has fixed the issue which impacted the automatic processing of flight plans. if you have been traveling, of course, any small change or problem has very long lasting ripple effects. i feel if you are traveling in or out of the uk. as for the airline stocks, they are showing resilience. no major reaction here. gains across the board for the european airlines. elsewhere in the uk, prices in british stores rose at the lowest pace in august. annual shop price inflation
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eased to 6.9%. non-food inflation holding steady at 4.7%. music to the bank of england's ears, no doubt. uk retailers trading firmly this morning. it is a broad based rally across equities this morning. turning to energy. che chevron's facilities could be disrupted after stoppages for the unions. this accounts for 5% of the lng capacity. the action to cause chevron billions of dollars. there is a look at how dutch ttf wholesale gas futures are tra trading. we are down 5% this morning. in reaction, no doubt, to the story which is volatile around the potential industrial action. fresh eu funding for ukraine
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is delayed by disagreements with member states over the eu request to top its budget according to the report from the financial times which says members are supportive of more money for ukraine, but have more concerns over the 66 billion top out of the budget between now and 2027. sylvia joins me at the desk to bring us up to speed on eu budget negotiations. at the start of the conflict, one of the features is the solidarity of eu member states. how do you categorize that solidarity now? >> when it comes to support for ukraine, that is not as risk in the sense the members are supportive of sending more money to ukraine. the sticking point at this stage is this money for ukraine is essentially attached to new money to the administrative costs in brussels. that means paying salaries and
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allowing the institutions to deal with higher interest costs across the bloc. we have the conversation among the member states which is a typical brussels argument in the sense of why do the brussels institutions needs more money? for the member states, the netherlands and germany, are being careful at home in new expenses. brussels institutions need to be careful with where they are spending money. i would highlight for viewers that this is an initial conversation. we will see a lot of back and forth in the coming months. when it comes to supporting ukraine, that is a priority for the member states. when the new money is confirmed for ukraine remains to be seen. that is not specifically known at this stage. >> it is clear. it is drawing up typical lines in brussels. that is how the debates go.
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let me raise another point of the president of the european council suggesting we could see the eu could enlarge the member states by 2030. how much weight should we put behind the comments? how realistic? >> it is an interesting comment because we have not heard this before with a specific date. we have eu elections in june. let's see what will be the main message from voters and if they are willing to have new members in the bloc. the second element is what if ukraine is still at war in 2030? we don't know. that is uncertain at this stage. for the time being, all of the member states cannot accept ukraine in the bloc as long as it is at war. i would be skeptical and careful about the comments in terms of the specific date with new members joining. i would also specify the issue with having new members joining
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the eu. is the block ready to have new members? that is an important question because we cannot forget the certain things are decided unanimously and unanimity is hard with more people around the table. going back to the question of funds. the more people around the table, the different equation on how to dispeburse money. some will be critical of seeing new members joining because they may be the ones getting the funds. >> outside of ukraine, which as you mentioned, is clear they will not join the eu while the conflict is still going on. what other countries could we see if we see the 2030 timeline come to fruition?
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>> mostly ldova and also georgi could be joining. these are countries that need to do a lot of homework if they want to join the eu. it is not just the bloc ready to receive the members, but these countries need to do a lot of work if they want to join the eu. we have to monitor the two. >> sylvia, glad you could join us. we will take a quick break. coming up on "street signs," byd releases the earnings boost. afr isre.v cuss all things e teth bak
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policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum and these are your headlines. european stocks open firmly in the green catching the positive hand over from wall street and asia. the uk's ftse 100 pops 1% as it catches up from monday's holiday. nn group tops the stoxx 600 after posting the first the half net income of 600 million euro.
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the ceo tells cnbc the group is well positioned for fluctuation in rates. >> higher rates is good news. also, if you look at our solvency, it is strong at 201%. if we would have volatility in interest rates, you know, our sensitivities to upward or downward are very low. u.s. commerce secretary gina raimondo promises to open dialogue with china to help ease trade tensions and an stressing there are no compromises on national security. and mark your diaries. the date is set for the start of the former president trump's washington trial beginning march 4th. the day before super tuesday primaries. we're about an hour and a
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half into the trading session. let's look at european equities after yesterday. we have more gains coming through. a particularly strong pop in the ftse 100 which was closed for the bank holiday yesterday. a catch-up trade there up 1.5%. gains in france with cac 40 upu uu up .30%. gains in the ftse mib and since the start of the program, we are marching higher after the strong day on wall street yesterday and investors brace for key data on both sides of the atlantic. in terms of the dollar and fx markets, here is where we stand. the euro is now trading weaker against the dollar. down on the day. 1 1 108.09. we are hovering at 126 level.
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as for uc.s. futures, we have te final week of trade of august. we are flat this morning as we await u.s. gdp and pce and non-farm payroll reports on friday. flights to the uk have been disrupted after a technical problem hits the air traffic control system. the service has been fixed which impacted the automatic processing of flight plans. fortunately, we have sky news reporter joining us. walk us through the scale of the disruption? it sounds brutal for the travel in the last 24 hours. what can we expect with delays? >> reporter: we are outside the terminal, but the boards inside are flashing with delay and
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cancel signs. a huge disruption. it was expected with heathrow airport tweeting severe delays. not just this airport, but we are seeing it across the country at other airports and knock-on effect with passengers stranded not just in the uk, but across the world. lots of people trying to get home. if you look at the flights canceled to and from the uk, it is less than 10% each way. it may sound like small numbers, but when it comes to the people involved, there are thousands of people stranded. we heard from people who say they are without food and water. others have their phone back batteries running out of charge. one said they would be on the grounded flights for five hours. all of this, of course, happened with the air traffic control computer fault which lasted a few hours yesterday at 3:15. the national air traffic service
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nat confirmed that fault to be found and fixed. that knock-on effect has hit passengers and it was the end of the bank holiday in the uk. in terms of the air space, that remained open. testament to how swiftly we do from the computer system to manual handling of flights. some airports are saying they are seeing normal service. gatwick and london are reporting that things are fine. in fact, london airport saying it may take on other flights to ease the pressure from other airports like here at heathrow where there are significant delays and thousands of passengers impacted and delays could last several days. >> waiting on the ground five hours in the plane is the worst-case scenario. it sounds awful. what do we know about the source of the disruption?
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i understand it was a technical glitch. that is the latest report. do we with understand why it happened and who will be held accountable for the major disr disruption? >> reporter: so many questions remaining about what the exact fault was and what caused it. we understand it was something to do with the data processing. this is something in the system that alerts controllers of where aircraft are and what is happening and which aircraft is in the sky and locations. that wasn't working. it had to be brought over to a manual system which essentially means humans controlling it. going back to old fashioned ways, if you will. what it means is airports used to dealing with huge capacity have a lot of traffic and they have to reduce the number of flights as the system comes into place place. earlier today, sky news had the
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transport secretary on and he was asked what caused it and the failures. he could not give us any more information other than saying he promises to investigate and the national air traffic service promised to investigate thoroughly. they will investigate to find out what happened to make sure it doesn't happen again. >> thank you so much for giving us the live coverage on the ground at heathrow. i appreciate you joining us. shifting dpgears to the aut space, toyota shut down all 14 factories after a production system malfunction. the largest car manufacturer is investigating the problem, but it is likely to have been a cyber attack. shares of byd rose on the hang seng after the chinese ev maker reported 200% jump in first half profit.
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the carmaker, backed by warren buffett, increased the share of the market by 435%. emily tan filed this report. >> reporter: the biggest ev maker breaking records in the first half to post $1.5 billion in profit. a threefold surge on year. despite price cuts, amid the price war, gross margin of 35%. the company delivers 1.25 vehicles. both segments are up 90% year over year. byd doesn't just dominate, the electronics unit announced the acquisition of mobile business in china. this will help it to expand customer base portfolio and smartphone business.
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byd shares out performing in trade today. i'm emily tan. back to you. china is expected to dominate when the auto fair kicks off in munich next month. it is expected to feature twice the number of companies previously. european auto manufacturers are expected to come under fire with climate activists looking to question the dependence on combustion engines. as new battery electric vehicle competitors aim for the segment of the market, labor relations across the region are critical factors. our next guest is the senior research analyst at bernstein. daniel, i'm looking forward to what you have to say today. we are coming off the back of another strong result from byd over in china.
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the company seems to go from strength to strength. how would you describe the chinese ev maker ambitions to expand into the european market? >> good morning, julianna. thanks for having me. the chinese and byd and other chinese manufacturers are setting sights in europe. relations with the u.s. make it a little more tenuous. we have seen byd and nio scout the european market and accelerate the pace of the market entry. >> when you talk about the pace of market entry ourks gi, give the numbers. what is the timeline into the european market? >> you need to look at the short and long term. to put numbers on it, byd sold 5,600 vehicles in the european market. that is a 15 million market share. this year, it is likely around
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40,000 or 50,000. next year, it is 150,000. i think the pace of chinese entry in europe is accelerating. that means over the next decade, it is likely that byd, nio and other chinese brands can capture up to 10% of the european market share. >> historically and correct me if i'm wrong, historically, there is concern around brand reputation and quality with the chinese alternatives. is that a concern for the european expansion at this stage or are those concerns no longer valid because the chinese evs have proven themselves in the last couple years? >> if you look at these cars like we do when they are torn apart, it is hard to tell the difference to an audi or volkswagen. maybe the other way around. byd and some of the other
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chinese oems are very innovative as tesla when it comes to manufacturing and designing vehicles. i would say the quality level is on bar if not better in areas of the industry. >> incumbents in europe like bmw and volkswagen, do they understand the pace and scale of the threat that is on their door step if you are correct? >> you are correct in pointing out the pace. i do think they understand the scale. it is not like they are not taking this lightly, but we get references to yoda and koreans. to put it in perspective, 300,000 cars for a brand, that enables you to build a local factory in europe. toyota took years.
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the koreans took about 15 years and tesla on the model 3 would have taken five years. i think what the european oems are underestimating is the rate of change and pace this will happen. >> so, are you bearish then on the european automakers? >> we look at the market and say the premium space with bmw and mercedes-benz have a brand ac reputation that exceeds. entrance will have to target the mass market in europe because they also need to build scale to get the operating leverage on distribution and service network. that means companies like volkswagen and the european arm of stellantis is in the eye of the storm. >> daniel, can i pick your brain about battery technology? it has gained a huge amount of
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attention with the hype and this could be answer to issues around range in particular. the types of super batteries have promised greater range for some time. we don't have stable ones at the moment. what are your thoughts on the technology and is solid state the future for evs? >> i'm not going to pretend to know more than the researchers on this. i would argue there is an influx of r&d into batteries. i think it is hard to believe that there will not been any innovation in the next decade. i'll not take a call on solid state, but we do hold as a view that battery capabilities and capacity will rise significantly just as the efficiency of electric vehicles which is the other side of the coin. mercedes-benz and bmw will tout
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platforms in the iaa next week and that will give confirmation to the efficiency improvements of the of the industry. >> can i go back to the comment if you took apart one car from byd and took apart a car from audi, it is hard to compare the base model. the build of the cars has become so impressive in china. how does tesla stack up to the chinese evs and the incumbents who have been the leaders in the auto space in europe over the last several decades? >> tesla is still a little bit ahead. we see the chinese coping the technical innovation that tesla is introducing in vehicles. i'll take one example. if you build a car, you build the chassis of the body.
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you see the metal gacage. now we have a battery. tesla was the first one to say i don't need the aluminum floor of the car. the chinese have picked up on that. it took the chinese a year to copy it. we have seen that tesla has been the most innovative company re-thinking how you build the car. let's see what they do with the new model. there are really interesting ideas floating around. i think tesla is the benchmark with manufacturing and ev tech and software. companies need to measure themselves against it. >> clear. just in terms of the chinese, one of the arguments to what you outlined in terms of the positive outlook for chinese expansion into europe is chinese driving behavior is very different to what you have in
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north america and an in parts of europe. you can drive 400 miles in a single day. s certainly in a weekend. >> in part, it does. it is a larger question to the ev penetration. there is a good argument to be made that we will see ev penetration in a steady state uninfluenced by regulators. lower in the u.s. than other regions of the world. we may see more tech relevant in the u.s. i think europe, to the strict regulation, tar getting 100% of ev sales by 2035. it will pull in the chinese brands to come to the aid of
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european p consumers because the are well manufactured, not low cost, but lower cost ev options. it is a competitive package. the regulation in a way will be pushing for more ev share in europe. that will make a really good starting base for chinese brands to enter the market. >> daniel, let's wrap up with your picks in the sector. i understand you don't cover byd specifically. we'll leave that aside. what is your advice for investors? >> i'll sidestep the debate we had. right now, the investment debate is around the cycle. you need to be conscious of falling gdp in china and u.s. and europe to some extent in 2024. that means automakers will have a tough time. you need to find the oem
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earnings growth. that is volvo cars or renault. that is driven by a large volume and adding mid-teens volumes growth in 2024. rest of the sector is low in single digits. it is driven by a brand with ri renault. >> such an interesting point. just in your opening to the answer to the question. auto stocks still trade like cyclicals. unlike tesla which trades as a tech stock in so many ways. whatever they do, the auto stocks are seen as cyclicals by the market. >> yeah. if you look at what's priced in right now, i would argue the market is pricing in free cash flow decline of 30% into next year across the european sector.
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it still has a positive view for the long-term growth. that is somewhere around 4% and 5% o 5%. our view is counter. we see less free cash flow decline next year. we are positive on the cyclical, but bearish on the long term. 4% to 5% across europe is highly t unlikely.ners and losers. >> daniel, a pleasure to speak with you. senior research analyst at bernstein. a.i. fuels interest in the sector. find out what they are backing by going to cnbc pro. and stocks are on track for a downbeat month in august.
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we look to the fed for the jobs report. find out how investors are positioning on cnbc pro. coming up on the program, former president trump's trial date is set. we will bring you the latest from d.c. after this break.
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former u.s. president donald trump's washington, d.c. trial will start march 4th. one day before the super tuesday primaries. the case accuses him of trying to overturn the results of the 2020 election and the run-up to the january 6th attack on the capitol building. we have brie jackson joining us. now, brie, talk about the date as as it smacks right at the front of the republican nomination.
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>> reporter: that's right, julianna. you laid it out there well. former president trump's legal calendar is set to collide with the presidential primaries. u.s. district judge chutkin set a start date of march 4th in the federal election interference case brought by special counsel jack smith. this is one day before super tuesday. the 15-state republican primary. the federal prosecutors tried to propose a january start date, but the trump legal team proposed a 2026 state date. the federal judge in this case said that was not reasonable. the judge moved forward with the march 4th start date. all of this comes in the middle of what will be a very heated election season. it will be a key time for the
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former president. mean meanwhile, in georgia, the fulton county judge announced that the former president will be arraigned on september 6th, that is next week. the former president's legal calendar continues to fill up as the campaign season heats up. >> brie, thank you for keeping us up to speed on the twists in d.c. i want to bring attention to the fresh comments from gina raimondo. she met with the chinese premier in beijing. the second full day of talks with the chinese leaders as she works with the relationship with the u.s. and china. the commerce secretary meeting with the premier. the u.s. wants to work on climate change and artificial intelligence and the fentanyl crisis crisis. the premier said sound economic
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and trade relationship will not only be beneficial for our two countries, but the entire world. her visit continues and we will continue to monitor her main message for the international community. they will not compromise on national security conversation, b -- security concerns. let's see what is in store for the u.s. today. not a lot. investors in the wait-and-see mode as we brace for data. the jolts report and pce on thursday. th then on friday is the non-farm payroll report. that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. "worldwide exchange" is coming your way next.
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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. we go two for two in the "five@5." big pharma on alert. it is not just drug prices, washington taking a fresh look at the banking sector. set to propose new rules today. if that weren't enough, lawmakers scheduling a face-to-face meeting with the biggest ceos in d.

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