hard to buy. like, i know people talking about bitcoin all the time, you can buy it on this app, sofi, that app, coinbase, et cetera. >> yeah, i think there's sort of the sense that it opens the door to more widespread adoption. you have spot etfs that are tied to actual bitcoin instead of drivives. >> "fast money" starts right now. right now on "fast," ten-year yields were hitting highs just last tuesday. they've fallen 25 basis points since then. so, from rates hit their peak and that is the green light stocks needed to get back into rally move? plus, the grayscale bitcoin trust notching a big win today. the news that sent the entire crypto space rallying and where we go from here. and two left for dead stocks getting a boost from one top firm. why analysts say these names may be sending investors a strong signal. i'm melissa lee, this is "fast

money." we start off with the major reversal in the rates market. treasury yields falling to their lowest level in nearly three weeks. the two-year seeing its biggest drop since early may. the ten-year trading with a 4.1 handle. it was just over 4.3% just a week ago. today's drop follows disappointing consumer sentiment and job vacancy numbers, otherwise known as jolts. the nasdaq riding 2%. the best day of the month. tesla, airbnb, nvidia among the big winners. the s&p 500 saw its best performance since june 2nd. have we seen the rally -- the peak in rates and if so, this is this the all-year for the rally in stocks? >> all-clear? that's a big statement. i'm not saying it's all-clear time. but this is where we've come from. and the dramatic move in rates is something the market was not positioned for.

we know what that means for equities, if it's inflation expectations. you have to ask yourself, why did rates go up as they did dramatically, and i think it's a combination. it's inflation, forwards are going hugher. i think it's a fitch downgrade. i think it's supply/demand dynamics, rates around the world. and all these things don't get a lot better, so, i'm just going to say, i think rates hold, you know, kind of around here. i don't think they're going to go a lot lower. the two-year, if you remove covid, that's a big removal, but rates have been going higher for a long time. for five, six years. so you i think rates are higher for the foreseeable, but we were just -- think of the repositioning in equity markets. and now, since we had that repositioning, you've seen semis continuing to reassert themselves. they're up 7% since august 18th. the qs outperforming the s&p. i'm not saying we're off to the

races again. markets were really under a lot of stress. i think we have seasonals that are going to make it really tough in september, but we're going to rally a couple-weeks here. we're going to get to 4550. >> is this going to be a head fake, dan? >> no, i don't think it's going to be a head fake. i think tim is absolutely right. i think in the near term, rates have peaked for now. and i think the answer to whether that's going to be the case going forward is what the growth trajectory looks like. i think we're getting mixed signals from all over the economy, from all the different companies. listen, if you are bearish on growth, you should be bullish on treasuries and vice versa, so, that's going -- i think the fed's not in the driver's seat, we're not in the driver's seat i think growth is in the driver's seat. >> i really think the reason we had the move is because of the rate volatility and the reversal from the high levels we had seen. keep in mind, leading up to that level, there was quite a bit of rate volatility buildup to that point. so, i'm hesitant to say we've peaked in rates. i just think that the volatility in that rate, particularly the longer end of the curve for now is going to continue, as we

continue to get mixed economic and growth signals. this jolts number essentially flies in the face of what we've seen in terms of the unemployment rate, you know, the consumer confidence flies in the face of what we saw last week from the atlanta fed, essentially calling for, i believe it's 6 or low 6 in terms of gdp annual growth rate. so, i think there's quite a bit of push/pull dynamic. and i think it was the xaser baited move back down in rates that led to that move today. >> you were on vacation. >> whilst -- >> i didn't say whilst. i didn't say it tonight. >> i said it on your behalf. >> tim talked about potential for this to happen into jackson hole. but i don't think rates have topped out at all. and i think the reasons tim was talking about before, there's going to be a problem moving forward, i think. the market's going to demand a higher yield for our treasuries. i mean, i just think that's where we are right now. today, bad news was good news for the market, without question.

and you saw that in terms of what yields did. at a certain point, i think bad news will be bad news again, and i think the trajectory of rates which was lower left to upper right will continue. i think rates going higher, higher for the wrong reasons. we stopped in the ten-year pretty much exactly where we should have. the level we saw back in october. but i think that's going to be short-lived. >> so, we have not seen the highs? >> i don't think so. i'm not saying i'm right. >> i agree. it's not because -- look, how many people have now recanted on their recession calls? so, i don't think that's what's going on. and i think this is highly, highly technical. and i just think we've gotten to a place here where i -- we had four decades of yield compression on treasuries. i actually think it's going to be really difficult to take rates that much lower. and it's not that the world is looking at the u.s. different in terms of reserve currency. it sounds like the ratings agencies are. they're talking about politics in a way that they are

evaluating markets. back to the market, it is extraordinary what we were saying about the nvidia numbers. that chart looks like it wants to go higher to me. and i they's extraordinary, when you consider what has happened and what the expectations were. so, i think you have to be very careful, if you are looking for this major reversal in markets, because right now, until semiconductors and qs stop giving up the boat, look at google, 18-month highs. they haven't given up anything here. and i think there are places you can stay invested. >> is this head-scratching to you, dan? you've been negative technology for quite some time now. >> i think this is exactly the story. days like today show you just how sensitive, you know, that particular part of the market is to the liquidity environment. so, what that tells you is, it's really not so much about the fundamentals, it's about the liquidity and rate story. so, if you are cautious about the liquidity story, and i would argue that a lot of the measures of liquidity are looking like they might roll over, you got to

be a little bit worried. >> like what? >> pretty much every measurable liquidity. you look at interest rates, lending standards, you look at financial conditions, they are either at these very stretched levels or they're already rolling over from -- and that was the opposite of what you've seen all year, which has been a big driver. >> right. so, that means, if that holds true, that qs should go down. we should see this pull out of technology eventually. >> you should see equities go down, but again, i'll continue to purport that i think, particularly that five or seven names, whatever acronym we want to use for them, i think there is a perceived margin of safety there, and i think given the proliferation of passive investing, you get -- it's so easy to transact in and out of those names. fine, perhaps you are going to find better value in some, you know, russell name or some more obscure name, but in order for you to build a position worth having, are you going to move the market against you in a meaningful wail? so, i think that, fine, you have

quite a built of liquidity out of the market, but the liquidity in and of the actual investable asset itself i think will lead those to trade at a premium. >> so, it is the safe haven. really? it's still the safe haven? the magnificent -- >> don't do it, please, please. >> i do care quotes. for people listening only, i'm doing air quotes because i don't really mean magnificent. they are the seven largest stocks. >> they're magnificent companies, and we deemed them that. if you watch the movie "the magnificent seven." >> i have not. what happened? >> four of them get whacked. >> ultimately it will be a fitting acronym. >> quickly. and just quickly, before, i think inflation is going to reacc reaccelerate. i don't want to get too wonky here. i don't know if pippa stevens is back in ec, but there was a huge crude draw. i'm going inside baseball here, but what it means, there was a huge unexpected draw in crude, 11 million barrels, it was expecting 2.

that's going to be problematic. crude is going to be higher tomorrow, which makes the fed's job that much more difficult. >> the correlations are there, i agree with that. energy is a great place to be. fnd for the people that said that energy is just a trade -- we're at two years with the xle outperforming the s&p. there's been some rocky moments, but i don't want to see crude at $110. i want it to be at $75 to $85, and the balance sheets across the board there. i think the dollar's another major force here to watch, because if the dollar hadn't rallied 5% over the last three weeks, i think the markets would be at new highs. and i think -- the dollar is responding to fed policy, it is responding to cross-border flows, it is responding to some of the economic data here. by the way, today's jolts and consumer confidence numbers, i think, had nothing to do with the move in the dollar and treasuries. i think you had got on a place where we priced in -- this is letting some steam off of -- from jackson hole. no one knew what the fed was going to say. a lot of people priced in there. ecb sent a lot ofvery dovish

signals over the last couple weeks, which on the differentials to the fed gave the dollar that room to rally. i'm not saying the dollar is going straight down. the dollar is your friend. it was a 12-year bull market, and there's a lot of investing to do internationally that will work out here. >> it does seem like very easily we could see the resumption of rates moving higher, to the levels we saw a couple weeks ago, because jay powell has every opportunity, or other fed officials, have every opportunity to talk the markets in that way. they don't necessarily want to see rates go down. do they want to see the ten-year yield at 4%? probably not. because that means a rally in equities. they probay don't want to see that, either. >> i think we're at an interesting point in the cycle where if we're close to the end of the hiking cycle, most people would sail there's zero to one hike left, this is where growth becomes the driver. and the more the fed hikes to sort of clamp down inflation, the more the long end becomes anchored, because it's negative for long-term growth and negative for long-term

inflation. you have to distinguish what part of the curve you're talking about. sure, the short end goes up, but the long end might not. and that's unique to sort of late cycle periods. >> they want the long end to stay high, they want that narrative of higher for longer. that's the policy dimension they had to hammer home at jackson hole, which they did, fleetingly. >> what i think is happen, and dan i'm sure has thoughts. central banks are learning they no longer control -- and you're seeing it in japan. the yield curve controls are no longer working. so, they are having an issue here. and i think we're having a similar issue here, not to that magnitude, but the same parallels. >> i also just think that the housing market is going to have a lot of problems. i know if you've been investing in the shb, you've had a great year. you've outperformed. and the components have outperformed. but you can't tell me -- it's not just about mortgage rates. it is the velocity of all these transactions. and the home builders are in a different place, especially those who are sub dizing a lot

of the higher rates. but you can't tell me if you grind things down, and the affordability really has gotten worse. i just think that the housing market, which is what the fed also should be targeting, let's be clear, where do people have their wealth tied up? in their home. that's good news for the fed. i know it's not good for everybody out there, but i think the best days for the xhb in '23 are behind it. it's not that i'm calling for a housing crash. i'm just saying that i get why these housing stocks and the peripherals rallied. so, it had a big day today, i think you be careful there. >> but can the fed actually attack that, if people are just staying put? if you don't have to sell your house, you don't feel that contraction in price. you feel just as rich as you did before, sitting on a 2% -- >> not if you can't pull equity out of the home, if you can't refi and alow kate that spending elsewhere. and that's there, and to the

other panelist's point about inflation, if they are able to drive it from 3% to 2%, i think that ten-year is probably sticky and moves -- guy said it, moves to the 4.5%, rather than the 3.5% that we were just at. for more on what it means for the markets, let 's bring i the chart master. carter, help us answer the question. have we seen the peak? >> well, you know, bonawyn makes a good point. yesterday, we were at 3.5. and this is the fickle nature of consensus. we were at 3.5 in june, crude was at $65 a barrel. and the consensus was recession. now, two weeks ago, it was higher for longer, because ten-years were at 4.35. the reality is, actually, reits peeked ten months ago and we've never exceeded those highs. we have four identical charts, but different time frames. that's the two-year.

look at the five-year. look at the ten-year. look at the 30-year. now, one would say, yeah, but didn't take may slight new highs? a breakout, there are rules to this, going by one penny higher, a stock, commodity, and then faltering, that's what a double top is. that's october 21st, almost ten months ago. rates have never exceeded those miles, just a draw in consensus. higher for longer, and we're all good. we remain -- this particular firm, worth chart, and those who work here in the lower rates camp, and i don't think anything's changed. ten months later, we don't see it in the charts other than a double top. >> what is a lower rates camp mean, though, carter, in this scenario? lower rates mean 4.1%? do we actually move to new lows, do we chug along? and what does that mean in terms of equities? >> sure, so, the key will be whether we break that uptrend line, it's very well-defined on the ten-year, but other parts of the curve.

and i think ultimately we do. i think 3%, 3.25%, is in the cards. >> and what does that mean for equities? sounds like a rally is in store. >> or something else. or is it? yes. that's to be determined. i mean, listen, these relationships are what they are, but consider this and everybody knows, if it was always so perfect, lower yields mean higher stocks. well, when the ten-year treasury was at 35 basis points at the covid low, the s&p should have been at 15,000. >> ah. carter. thank you. pearls of wisdom always from carter braxton worth of worth charting. that's why he's in the pantheon. >> he is. >> lower rates will mean a bad thing. bad world, dan, that we will be entering. are you in that camp? >> yeah, i mean, if he's talking about rates going 3%, 3.25%, that's pricing in a recession. and i think that's a real risk you have to consider at some point. but i think what's important is, we have to understand there's risks on both sides. i think there's a risk that the economy accelerates and you have a guy adami scenario, we have

inflation, and the fed has to step in to fight that inflagts and going to have much higher rates, but we had the services pmi roll over last week, jolts, you know, showing the economy is loosening up, consumer confidence rolling over, there's a lot of things that could cause this reacceleration to peter out. i think neither of those risks are priced in. >> guy, you usually like to agree with carter, and yet, in this situation, you are opposed. >> opposed. but the charts speak volumes. and two, five, ten, 30, they all look identical. you would say, you know what, carter is right, going to do this back-in fill in a meaningful way. i get it. i think this is one of those cases where you false break out, it pulls back and you just go racheting through to the upside. we've seen it before in other things. i think you're going to see it here. >> i think rates have to go a lot higher in japan. and they have to go higher in the european union. monetizing the debt right now, remember, what happened from the

great financial crisis through to where we are today is, all the dealt dynamics, the credit dynamics, all that scourge went from the private sector to the public seconder to. are we ready to continue to underwrite the public sector the same way we were over the last decade? the markets are telling you, it may be a different day. discount rates are 250 basis points were higher than they wir. equities aren't worth as much. and i agree with dan here, i mean, last week, we heard a lot of suf abtuff about the consume from consumer and discretionary that i think is just the beginning. no one's talking about it. we get it from macy's, nordstrom. >> i think there's compelling arguments on both sides. i think we are probably higher, but i don't think that's the question at hand. the question at hand is, are we going to stay where we are or tlbts for longer, and what is the cost for a rate cut if we end up lower? and i agree with dan, if we're back at 3.5, as i said earlier,

and i was dead wrong, that's a recession nail overhang and a real problem spot. coming up, huge news in the crypto space. a major win paving the way for the first ever bitcoin etf. what it could mean for investors, institutions, and the entire crypto world. more on that next. plus, the iphones, they are a-changing. apple sending out save the dates, and a major adjustment could be making in the iphone 15. the charging changeup, when "fast money" returns. ♪ ♪

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welcome back to "fast money." we've got an earnings alert on ambarellea, down 15%. kristina has the results from the quarter. >> artificial intelligence may drive future business, they still need to deal with the, quote, very challenging near-term environment that includes weak end demand. this is highly exposed to the video processor market, like surveillance cameras, or cameras used in cars. but companies are cautiously spending on that kind of hardware. that's why the ceo said they anticipate their video processor revenue to contract.

contributing to that q-3 total revenue guidance decline that we saw $50 million lower than what the street was estimated at $67.6 million. the ceo doesn't quote expect a recovery in 2023, but a return to growth in 2024, so, this time frame is worse than expected with the cfo calling it a cyclical correction. their products include low power systems on a chip used for artificial intelligence, said they shipped about 17 million of these a.i. processors so far. but that future a.i. potential still not enough to offset the weak-end market that the company has been faced with, and that's reflected in the stock drop. and obviously the q-3 guidance, which is really weak. >> kristina, thank you. guy, what did you make of this quarter? >> so, we talk about the pie for spend, right? cap x spend, and this might be one of those situations where you start to see nvidia's gains are names like ambarella's

losses. it's aniek doe at the, but you might be seeing more of this. other companies seeing a pull-back, where other companies like nvidia and the amds of the world start to see an acceleration. there's only so much spend that can go around. >> meantime, bitcoin surging more than 7% after an appeals court ruled in favor of grayscale on its etf proposal, potentially paving the way for exchange-traded crypto funds. kate rooney has more on this. >> the crypto market is one step closer to that bitcoin etf. grayscale is one of many of the applications out there, it's tried multiple times to convert its bit cos bitcoin trust into . the court sided with grayscale, saying that the commission failed to explain why it approved two bitcoin futures etfs, but not gray scale's. if approved, the etf would get

some of the world's largest asset managers onboard. you have blackrock and fidelity among those, also in line for their own etfs. it's seen as a way to broaden the crypto investor base. and seen as a more efficient way to track prices, versus futures etf. the bitcoin trust narrowing on hopes of this approval. and it got coinbase getting a bid today. sort of surprising move there, on one hand, the etf could take volume away from coin base if people are using more traditional brokerage counts. some are saying it's a loss for the s.e.c. and agency may have a little less influence in enforcement actions going forward. coinbase is locked in its own high profile legal battle with the s.e.c. mel? >> all right, kate, thank you. kate rooney on this major decision in the grip poe world. the discount for the gptc is very steep, so, it really hasn't closed that, if there's hopes

that's still to play. >> and, a lot of that discount is still making its way back from, you know, everything, where we were with ftx, et cetera. i'll continue to say more regulation is better for this industry, but the right kind of regulation. and there's no question, you can imput a lot of things from today's announcement. the sense was, you were seeing the major etf companies already getting the green light, or, at least, that's where we were positioning. so, we've had this over the last three to six months. bitcoin has been amazingly quiet, if you think about it. the lack of volatility, the times we've had some of the volatility in the markets. more regulation is going to send bitcoin prices higher, not lower. >> the move in coinbase was interesting. i would think it would take volume off coinbase if it is easier to buy it through a schwab account or what not. >> i tend to agree, but the higher tides lift all boats.

pretty compelling argument, in terms of the approval of the futures vehicle, but pushing back on this. so, i think coin base tended to move in tandem, and it will probably be after you parse through and really think about the second or third effects are before you start to seal convergence between the two. >> it was puzzling to me and others watching the s.e.c. decision that it was because they couldn't regulate fraud. they couldn't control it enough, and yet in the aftermath, think of all that's happened in the crypto world in terms of fraud. >> yes. and think about the move in coinbase. you would have thought, to your question. but coin base was a $110 stock a month ago, traded down to $72 and bounced, so, a lot of that was priced in. this is an extraordinarily volatile stock for a $20 billion company. >> so, with this on-ramp, dan, do you think that clients will now -- will you have to have a crypto analyst at rba, because there's going to be more demand for a position in bitcoin?

>> no, i don't think so. i mean -- on one hand, you know, i think i'm worried for the individual investor, because it gives them another risky asset and legitimizes it as an vestment, but on the other hand, if people want to buy brown suits, they can get brown suits and if people want to risk -- >> i would never wear a brown suit, by the way. >> i think that's the point. >> i don't think there's any reason for the color brown, other than guy's u.p.s. outfits. >> i own two brown suits. proudly. >> boy. >> just to be clear, you meant brown sumits -- >> there's demand for it. there's no reason why people can't have a vehicle to buy it. >> all right. >> it's upsetting to me. >> why? >> tim knows -- >> i can have a strong view on brown. >> you could see -- personally, i look outstanding in brown. and i'm happy to -- two? >> two. >> handsome man. he gets it. >> fancy man. >> all right. there's a lot more "fast money" to come. here's what's coming up next.

do you remember the 12th night of september? well, you will. that's the date of apple's next big product launch. the changes you should expect for your iphone. and other surprises could be in store. the details, next. plus, the white house unveiling its first list of drugs in line for medicare price negotiations. which ones are on the radar? and what could it all mean for pharma stocks, ahead. you're watching "fast money," live from the nasdaq market site in times square. ll do for busin. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business, you can build ai to help coders code faster, customer service respond quicker, and hr handle repetitive tasks in less time.

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money." mark your calendars. apple sending out invites for its next product event on september 12th, where it is expected the new iphone 15s will be unveiled. one of the biggest upgrades in years, a new charging port. apple could make the switch to a usb-c charging port. the current apple port has been on iphone since 2012. so, you'd have to buy a new charger, just what we all needed to do. apple up more than 40% this year, but still down 7% from its record high hit last month. and the question, of course, is this new upgrade cycle reverse the decline in sales that we've seen for three straight quarters, guy? >> well, i mean, the margins on these items are through the roof, right? and you know -- i mean, they've been doing this for years. it's not coincidence that your phone dies at a certain time, just when the new phones come out. i get it, good for them. how do you trade the stock? well, it traded down to the prior all-time high from december 2021, $178 or so.

we had a couple days through it, but we bounced. that's a good level to trade against. so, if you are an apple bull, which 95% of the people watching are, you have a good setup to the upside. >> there's apple the stock and apple the component of the market. we're talking about equal weighed etfs and passive investing as opposed to market weighting, or what's going on. the magnificent seven, sorry, guy, are never going to be this weight in the s&p again. they've peaked. so, this is all negative for apple. three-qu quarters of declining sales, negative for apple. this is a discretionary spend. not in their favor. i think you pulled forward -- yes, we need to upgrade my phone every two years, but i think you've had a major pull forward with all the other devices and you had the sweetest of all spots for apple, the stock and the company. you've got china issues that don't get better, they probably get worse for the company. so, why are you overpaying for apple here? you're not. you shouldn't be.

>> youth unemployment estimated to be as high as above 30% at this point. so bad they're not reporting the data anymore. consumers are highly indebted at this point. you like china, but can the consumer actually help apple out at this point or is it going to be a drag? >> well, if you're talking about china, one of the things that you've heard from the retailers and consumer companies overall, this earnings season, is that the u.s. consumer was the weak spot, the chinese consumer was the area of strength. and so, you know, i think that china can be a driver of this, but i agree with tim. listen, apple is a cyclical company, so, if the cycle is improving, they're going to benefit from that. but why would you pay so much when you can get it cheaper elsewhere? >> it is defensive, though. bonawyn, it's defensive. right? >> there's -- >> thick and thin. where you want to be. >> there is a margin of safety, i want to make sure i kind of differentiate that from calling it a defensive name. it's overpriced. it has had declining quarters of

revenue. it doesn't take away from the fact that if there is an incremental dollar to spend, this is likely where people are going to spend it. and frankly, until it -- the waiting isn't to massive, and until the people that are believers, you know, no longer want to invest in the name, i think there's room to run. you can agree or disagree with the valuation, i don't think, you know, particularly with a name like this, it always trades on the back of valuation. if you miss the move, it's an unforgivable position to be in. coming up, pharma in focus after a major medicare announcement out of the white house. the drugs and stocks being impacted. more on that next. plus, calling all tell come investors. analysts dialling into at&t and verizon. the positive signs of reception they see for these names, when "fast money" returns. missed a moment of "fast?" catch us any time on the go. follow the "fast money" podcast. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money." stocks rising today. the dow up 300 points. the s&p up 1.5%. and investors flocking back to technology. the nasdaq was up 1.7%.

but with just two trading days left in august, the indices are in the red this month. hp enterprise and hewlett packard down. and box falling hard, even after posting revenue in-line with estimates. the biden administration revealing the first ten drugs subject to medicare part d price negotiations oday, aimed at making costly drugs more affordable. some of the most widely prescribed medications. revenues and profits in jeopardy. drug makers like merck and johnson & johnson have filed lawsuits to declare the move unconstitutional. for more on what the decision means, let's bring in jared holtz. great to have you with us. in terms of looking at the stock reaction, there wasn't much of a reaction. i heard explanations, it's all expected, we don't know if it's

going to come about. so, what will make some stocks actually break out then? what's missing here? >> yeah, so, i do think there was an expectation here. we've been talking about this issue for about a year. the ira and what cms was going to do, you know, the stret's kind of come up with their list. it was mainly right. you know, they need drugs. they need pipelines to get investors to say, okay, i'm willing to invest in this company, in this stock, for the next three to five years and without that clarity, without that revenue growth, through the decade, i think it's pretty hard. and i think also, other growth sectors are acting better. i think it's tricky. >> okay. so, how -- is there a discount put into the pharma stocks for specifically medicare part d as well as the future medicare part b negotiations, and how much of a discount do you think that is at this point? >> i think at least a couple multiple points of a discount. i think the group has traded at a discount to the s&p for as

long as i've been covering the sector. and i think drug pricing and the political overhang more broadly is the chief reason why. so, we'll have to see how things go. >> jared, but -- if you think about that list, those are companies -- i'm sorry, those are drugs all coming off patent, so, not that big a deal. it -- is there any politics involved in the companies, though, who had the biggest exposure here in terms of, you know, j&j, some of the companies, it -- anything about that? and how do they come up with this list? i mean -- it seems a little bit arbitrary. >> right, i don't think there was too much politics in it. i think they were looking at, you know, essentially what the biggest medicare spend was on a line item basis by company, and this is kind of what they thought was most reasonable, based on that analysis, if you kind of listen to what they've been saying. i don't think it was politically motivated. it was kind of even. to me, there was no real, you know, heavy motivation here. pretty down the line. not a big deal.

>> pfizer's a $36 stock, it was a $36 stock eight years ago. i mean, it had a huge run to the upside, but it's almost like a mean reversion trade. what can get them out of their stock purgatory, if anything? >> well, i think if they can close this deal, the c-gen deal, that will give investors a little bit to bite on, a little bit to chew on in terms of a positive catalyst. the growth dynamic that seattle had prior to the deal, i think, is a positive. that could get it up a little bit. i don't think materially. and they also need to really execute on the transactions they've done since 2019. they've bdone deals in the sicke cell space. those all have to kind of man any fest to getting a better company. >> i want to talk about lilly and novo nordisk. ozempic, as well as mounjaro, are covered under medicare part d if they are described for diabetes management. so, what are the chances that these drugs come next? >> oh, it's a matter of time.

>> just a matter of time. synthetic -- synthetic end to exclusivity for their biggest money makers right now. >> i believe so. it just -- it depends on the ramp of revenue and how significant these are for the medicare population specifically. but i would think within the next few years, for sure. there will be some impact. i think ozempic will go first. mounjaro might take a little bit longer, because the weight loss drug, if you look at wegovy and mounjaro for novo and lilly, those populations are probably not huge medicare populations. but ozempic could surely go maybe next year, the year after. >> so many questions surrounding that in terms of what the model looks like then. but with the select data on wegovy, if it has shown that it is going to be prescribed to prevent cardiac events, does that change the game in terms of wegovy being prescribed for

that? >> it's possible. i mean, these are all the things, these are the dynamics that i think that are going to shift over the next few years as the populations change, as the drug goes from a diabetes drug to an obesity drug and we're going to kind of have to see how that plays out. but these are definitely going to be under the gun at some point. >> i'm sure you've done the back of the envelope calculation. what does that do to the valuations here? what does it do to lilly, if you assume ozempic goes under a price cap in the next year or two? >> well, i think for novo, for ozempic, lilly for mounjaro, if they are under price scrutiny, i think at the first sign that you could see the revenue start to decelerate, we're years away from that, that's when you're going to see the multiple compress. i think we're a couple years away from, that but these are trading at three to four x the group. so, you don't really need much for it to converge a bit. >> jared, great to get your take. thank you for coming by. >> thank you.

>> jared holz, who was on "squawk box" earlier today. >> he's a man in demand. before the news, now we have the news. >> you know why that is? because he's the axe in the space. that's why. you want the -- i'm just saying. >> go ahead, tim. >> let me give you a trade, because, you know, the reason i'm long j&j is, it's not just a pharma gcompany, it's got consumer products and med tech. those parts of their business are interesting. the pharma pipeline is interesting. the exposure here is probably negligible for j&j. you have opportunity, and granted, yes, there's risk there, but i think you have taken some of that risk off the table and it trades at a discount to itself and to its peers because of that, with the strength of those other two businesses very good. >> novo nordisk was a $90 stock, it's tripled in price. it is almost a half a trillion dollar company. and it's actually, i think, more expensive now than eli lilly on

valuation. people have enjoyed these moves. i get it. two years away, i get that, as well. but one bad headline and it's a 10%, 15% move. are you willing to risk that, given the run the stocks have had, or looking to take some money off the table? i think in novo, you have to sort of pull the rip cord. >> i don't feel like two years away is that long for this kind of valuation, but what is your take? >> i tend to agree. the prospect seem a bit scary, and perhaps there's recency bias here, given the news just recently disseminated. but if you no longer have this -- the whole reason why you have this exclusive period is so you can price the drugs where you want. so, if that is kind of going away, then what's your incentive to spend on r and d and what are the prospects for acquisitions look like if you don't pay a premium multiple sn? so, i see a lot of triple down

implications. >> where are you on health care, dan? >> you don't want to give up on health care here. it's one of the cheapest sectors out there, and if you think the economy is going to slow, health care is a pretty good place to be. >> all right, coming up, sales surging despite china gloom. a look at the action. but first, at&t and verizon barking higher. should you get your paws on these stocks? >> oh, my goodness, mel. how did you read that? >> settle down. >> i will. those trades and more ahead on "fast money." however you see fit. rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. clink! dr. marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. emily used part of her refund to buy... i run a wax museum. let innovation refunds help you get started on your erc tax refund. stop waiting. go to innovationrefunds.com

you really got the brows.

a special week of "mad money" continues tonight. jim is unveiling more of his rules of investing and most important market lessons. that's tonight, 6:00 p.m. eastern time, right here on cnbc. meantime, citi upgrading verizon and at&t to a buy from a neutral, saying it sees signs of stabilization for the stock and expect them to be able to keep their lofty dividends. the call a welcome relief for investors in these names. one of those investors is mr. tim seymour. >> yeah, and i'll be the first to tell you that not only is

at&t been a dog, but you can't own this stock for the dividend. and if you're looking at total return, it's -- this has been a terrible trade in terms of at&t. now, you can make an argument that in their core wireless business, the environment has become less predatory. t-mobile is eating their lunch, and now it's in a place where it's about the free cash flow generation from that core business. they've divested the media assets. and the argument is they can pay this dividend. don't be in it for the dividend. >> where do you stand on telecom, dan? >> well, now it's part of the broader communications services second attorney which is dominated by the big tech names, so, we don't think it makes sense, but within that, i think these are -- what tim said no withstanding, i think they are good places to be, if you're going -- if you want to go by high yield for similar yields, i would rather own these stocks, probably. >> t-mobile, within 10% of an

all-time high. at&t just made a 30-year low couple weeks ago. i mean, that tells a pretty good story. and these bounces in at&t, which we've seen a number of times over the years, i'm not latching to laugh, but they've been -- >> you're laughing at at&t. >> no, i am. i am laughing at at&t. >> laughing at the stock. for all the poor people -- >> i'm on the at&t application. i'm a customer. doesn't mean the stock's any good. >> you're laughing at it. >> i am. sorry. the dividend, i mean, tim makes a good point, but i pays a good dividend -- >> you lose that in a day. >> easily. >> yeah. >> you're laughing at at&t, too. >> i feel like -- >> i'm telling the truth with a smile on my face. >> you are laughing at tim seymour. >> no, we're not. >> funny how? like a clown? you know. i accuse you. coming up, is the rally all thanks to a temu marketplace? we'll get some answers and if

the options pits are looking where the stock is heading from here. more "fast money" in two. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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the company beating analyst expectations and say it saw a positive shift in consumer sentiment. options traders taking to the new very positively today. mike's got the action. mike? >> yeah, it was one of the busiest single stock options today, it traded more than five times its average daily options volume. the largest trade we saw in terms of premium was a purchase of 2,600 of the march 105 calls. over $10 a contract for those. buyer is risking about $2.7 million in premium on a bet that the stock could rally 20% by march expiration. >> yeah, we mentioned temu, the marketplace, tim, i don't know if you -- i go guy is definitely not familiar with this, but basically, like shein, it is taking the u.s. by storm. that's for sure. w and it's one of the reasons why it beat. >> and there are opportunities here. a lot of people, again, they're investing in china based upon

macro, and sounds like dan is somewhat constructive on china here, because i think the valuations of some of these companies who have real businesses, and are taking market share, not only in china, but here very attractive. >> yeah. >> i'm hurt, because i actually, in the commercial break, i was shopping on said website. what was it called? >> temu. what did you buy? >> bags of haribo for the desk. >> interesting. they don't sell that. >> i never heard of it. >> i know. mike khouw, thank you. for more options action, tune into the full show, friday, 5:30 p.m. eastern time. up next, final trades. good luck. td ameritrade, this is anna. hi anna, this position is all over the place, help! hey professor, subscriptions are down but that's only an estimated 15% of their valuation.

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time for the final trade. tim? >> i think j&j outside of some of the overhang here is going to give you low double digit growth for the next four, five years. and i think it's worth owning over time. you'll get through this. >> dan? >> small caps have lagged over cyclicals. and i think profits are about to start to accelerate. >> bonawyn? >> i don't think that rate volatility can persist without that trickling into the equity

market. vix. >> guy? >> look how fast it got here. look how fast they got here! that's why it's such a great website. marathon oil. mro. >> violent with those. >> easy with them. >> thanks for watching "fast money." ar rhtcko ho a tscol sttsig now. welcome, good evening. i am just trying to make you money. my job is not just entertain but educate. the stock market is not always a friendly place. it can be volatile, it