tv Mad Money CNBC August 29, 2023 6:00pm-7:00pm EDT
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>> look how fast it got here. look how fast they got here! that's why it's such a great website. marathon oil. mro. >> violent with those. >> easy with them. >> thanks for watching "fast money." ar rhtcko ho a tscol sttsig now. welcome, good evening. i am just trying to make you money. my job is not just entertain but educate. the stock market is not always a friendly place. it can be volatile, it can be
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painful, and just downright difficult. this could be problems you may have no idea about until they hit us in the face. that's why i am at so in -- so invested in making a better investor. the same tricks i teach you about constantly when you join the investing club. not in the way stocks trade, patterns, what has worked for me and what has not and for those observations, i've put together a set of rules that are designed to help protect you from the worst mistakes you can make. both good markets and bad. rules that now make up the
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guidebook for investing clubs, i am sharing with you. as much as i might see like an unhinged lunatic, the truth is i am all about discipline. you are going to make mistakes in this business. it's inevitable. if you stick to the rules, that should help you minimize your losses and maximize your gains. let's talk about this. why should you try to identify the stocks and the best run companies? why is this even a question? when you are shopping for a car, do you buy the best rate or the best you can afford? we know that a brand and a good brand signifies reliability. it tells us we can expect a higher level of service. the quality that will make your drive safer and easier for
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years to come. no one ever set out to buy the worst car, are they? there are simpler ways to put your lives in danger. why do so many seem to feel differently about the stock market? why are we going for penny stocks that are constantly talk to you on twitter? that's why so many people throw their way bind garbage cryptocurrency. there are some good ones, why not stick with those? here's the thing. if you go for cheap stocks from low-quality companies, it's more likely to lead to losses than gains. i love bargain-hunting. but i only want genuine bargains , something that is actually worth something. it's not a bargain to buy junk just because it has a low dollar price.
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that is the best, but it's the kind of long-term story that you can count on. it's the long history and has some of the best in the world. what makes a company best? what he once said about, "i know it when i see it." when i say best, i'm talking about well-managed, high- quality companies great balance sheets like procter & gamble. if you can get prox and gamble on sale, fantastic. if you can't, i would prefer you to pay out for something similarly great just because the scene cheaper, because they are not. there are very few genuine bargains out there when it comes to second or third tier. they may look cheaper than the top dogs but that is because they deserved to be. their businesses are worth less. don't worry about paying a
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higher price, it may seem more expensive in addition to being a better investment, you are also buying peace of mind. the stock just keeps charging higher and higher than it has for a decade. when you find a best-of-breed company, the kind of thing you believe in, high-quality companies represent value. it's the same just because it doesn't act so well. so many people throw in the towel on companies that realize this just because their stocks are not working right now. it drives me nuts, but patience is a virtue in this business. if you have a reason to believe in the business, don't dump the stock just because it's not getting traction at the moment. you are not a hedge fund manager. you don't need your businesses to show a gain every quarter or
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every month or even every day. you don't have investors that are pulling money from you. so, indulge yourself. you can afford to wait for this to play out. you will be tempted to sell even best-of-breed stocks if they don't do something in a short period of time. this can be difficult when sticking to your guts, even for something you truly believe in. you will feel compelled to give up but in many cases, if you've done your homework and you have conviction, that urge to sell will be a mistake. look, it happens to the best of us. i did an interview with tim cook after the stock plummeted from $31-$23 in a short period of time. everyone was giving up on apple. i looked at the stock and saw the low price, i looked at the customer service revenue stream and the cash balance sheet and
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said what is the point of selling a stock in a company that makes the greatest product in history? it may sound like a no-brainer, but there are a ton of skeptics and they are always out there saying oh, the company's best days are behind them. time after time, they have been proven wrong and they don't give up and they don't go away. telling you by apple intech mac 23 was a fabulous call because the insane amount of negativity, it gave a major discount. apple is a high-quality company, a best-of-breed. when the stock goes down you know it's cheaper. selling apple '23 would have been a class example of giving up on value. you would have missed one of the biggest moves of our lives but there's no apologies from those who downgraded, that i know of. in 2022, many would make that same mistake with and video.
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i learned my lesson from apple and the stock tripled at a little more than seven months. don't be afraid to pay out for best-of-breed stocks. they may have higher prices but are also much less likely to blow up in your face. the best-of-breed premium is worth it. unless you find a company that you believe in, don't let them scare you away. patience is a virtue and giving up on a value stock is a sin. let's go to mandy, in maryland! >> i appreciate it, how are you? >> i am fine, how are you? >> thank you for taking my call. we love your show. i love it, i watch it every day. i really appreciate all that you do. my question is, if you have $4000, how do you invest?
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>> i have said and will reiterate that for your first $10,000 and not before then, you should put that money in an s&p index fund, preferably a low-cost one. i care about diversification more than anything else. only after that can you start buying individual stocks. jerry in missouri, jerry? >> thank you. you stress diversification all the time. my investment strategy is mainly growth. these other stocks have all backfired for me. i've been enjoying the tech stocks in my portfolio, lately, 20% in cash and waiting for a down charge. i feel like i can have a fairly diversified portfolio even though it is technology dominated. what are your thoughts?
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>> we have to understand that there have been times in our careers where that strategy has been very bad, so that is why you can have a couple ech stocks but if you are tech heavy, like 2000, where you had a couple of others, even 2008 or 2021, that began to roll over. let's be a little more careful and a little less conscious. please don't be afraid to pay out for best-of-breed and don't let the bear scare you away. patience is a virtue! if you were trying to get a handle on intake, i like to look at one corner of the market to get a sense of where we are headed. i will reveal where it is and how you can benefit. and, how do you prepare? when the market tanks. and, i will reveal a new role for investing and what may seem obvious. stay with kramer!
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♪ how can you keep track of a confusing market? the only two things you really need to watch far are macro, big picture, and micro, company specific. if you want to know where the stock market might be heading, you have to keep your eye on bonds. i know the bond market is boring, get out. it's much larger than the stock market and importantly, it's important to know for help of stocks. when i was with my old hedge funds, i would always start the same way, i had to be away from my desk so i would begin by saying hey, where are the bonds? that's how much it mattered on a day-to-day basis. where is the bond market?
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they have forgotten that federation trade, in the lead up to the financial, and it could be the best time in years. these are long-term interest rates, and you have to know that. you simply must know what the bonds are doing at all times. bonds can punch her portfolio in the face if you are not paying attention and could have success on the yield curve. where the two-year is, the five, the 10, 20, the 30. keep those bond prices in front of you if you want to know what might be happening in the future. i was focusing on bonds because those are the competition to stocks whose competition i most fear when short-term interest rate go sky high, you have to
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expect dividend stocks, high- yield. we have to bet that these sell off because you can't get a yield big enough to compete with fixed income all -- alternatives unless they sell big enough. who wants indoor capital losses for five or 6% yield? this is something to watch, so you have to be wary of the stock market. it is simple. if that competition gets more attractive, this could become a giant zero-sum. of course, you should be especially worried about rising long-term rate caused by inflation we saw during the bear market in 2022. we see these equities because the future earning streams have less purchasing power especially for growth. higher interest rates still
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make bonds more attractive and more expensive for the whole economy. we had low inflation and low interest rates, which is fantastic. then the pandemic hit and the world turned upside down. this led to a hideous market meltdown. i would be saying that if you just watch the man with the ball, and you don't watch with the other team is doing on defense, there is no way you are getting to the basket. you determine the action in the stock market so keep your eye on the ball and the bond. okay. what else you need to keep an eye out for? the company specific level, you need to be cautious with unexplained resignations by key executives. to put it bluntly,
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when the chiefs resign, you should, too. when you see a ceo step down, you should resume -- assume something is wrong and you should sell. i say shoot first, ask questions later. i have sold stocks because the ceo resigned and if i turn out to have jumped the gun, well, i simply buyback. visa, other examples, i can't think of it because they are that uncommon. why? simple. they don't quit for personal reasons. these are fabulous jobs. you don't get to be a chief executive of a publicly traded company by being devoted to your family. no one gets one of these jobs without giving up a great deal, family, friends, nights out,
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vacations. petition for these positions is so serious, so fierce that when you finally land one? you don't up and leave, not for no reason. there is something wrong at the company level, hence my role. why high-level quit. i know a ceo who quits because he had in the epiphany about climbing k2, ceo who did want to spend time with the family. fine, there are exceptions and at some point ceo does step down just to spend time with the kids, but when you invest, it's not the exception that matters. there are always situations where those stocks leave. most of the time, selling is the right decision and this is a rule to help keep me in the game in my hedge fund.
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helping you to avoid losses. betting on companies with the ceo just as resigned? if you want to get a handle on the stock market, you need to watch what is going on with the boss. that should be obvious, that it's something that people forget when the economy regain some normalcy and when you look at individual companies, a member unexplained, high-level executive resignations equal sell! "mad money" is back, after the break.
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there are too many people in this game you are not realistic. they allow their motions to cloud their judgment or allow themselves to be surprised by the inevitable. so let's start there. you think that people get comfortable with the idea of the dia that stocks go down. you think we would get used to the process. something can happen and will happen. if people are reasonable, if we were realistic, you might assume something like, it could be right around the corner. most people act like every correction is a shot, the type of thing that never happens. every time the stock market goes down there's a contingent of people who seem stunned, caught totally by surprise. to me, i know the rain is inevitable, i expected to rain, i'm prepared.
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i have an umbrella or a coat or a stay indoors and that is how you need to approach the possibility of pullback in the market. so, have some cash ready on the sidelines in case that turned out to be now. plenty of corrections happen at allegedly unexpected times. we've had major decline during which we made lots of money. january of 2018, people were acting like we had this unstoppable rally but in february, those averages got obliterated. in the fall of 2021, we had a magnificent rally where practically everybody was making money because it was so easy. and then the market rolled over and it took months for people to realize that no, this is a bear market. there were terrific days and why do i mention this? this is the moment when nobody else is concerned. that is when we get these
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brutal unexpected declines. a several of my hedge fund. i knew i was too exposed, i knew i was too long. i knew that my portfolio would kill me if i got caught in a storm. i simply had too much money all at once. so, my performance was swinging too much on the upside and i would pull back, furiously selling to down day just around the corner and it does prove to be just around the corner. some never came and had to swallow my pride and even buyback what i sold, or if i did get a major selloff, my hedge fund sell so much my clients thought i was a genius. i wasn't, though, it was discipline and preparation. i had been able to use that money to buy all sorts of high- quality stocks. we may not be
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able to predict when a storm is going to strike, but we do have barometric readings that can help us immensely. so, where should you get your weather report? i have one. i like to follow the proprietary market edge, a terrific indicator that tells us when the market is getting overbought or oversold. you can subscribe to this to the investing club. +5 or above that tells us that we've come up fast to the point where it's advantageous. that means you need to pull back aggressively. what do i mean by that? you might want to ring the register on a nice portfolio as we would always advise you. we spend hours teaching you how to learn this cell discipline so you have the cash on the sidelines you can use the buyback your favorite socks at lower levels when the storm hit. you should be selling something
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to raise some cash. when the oscillator hits -5, it means the market is incredibly oversold and it is time to? yeah, time to buy. at least we are due for a short- term bounce back, to me. it's a good place to put your cash to work if you haven't already and it some of our best work that comes when we tiptoe in down five. this is a week before, with massive moves higher bid then we hold our noses. worst case scenario, you sell something at a high level but there is no storm that makes it go higher, so you for the averages because you have too much cash and i will take that risk. it is a real risk but look at it this way. using that methodology i just
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described in my hedge fund, i gave investors a 24% compounded annual return after all fees about three times with the s&p 500 over the same year. it's pretty strong evidence that avoiding losses on down days more than makes up for the possibility of missing on those updates. now, you need to stop yourself from making investment decisions based on misleading emotions and the worst of those is hope. i hope that doomed stock will come back, i bought it, so i can sell it, i get angry. hope should never be part of the equation. don't hope for anything. hope is a motion and this is not a game of emotion, or at least, not your emotions. every stock you own because you hope it goes higher is another position in your portfolio not being filled by a stock you believe will go higher.
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i hear about hope constantly. that's fine if we talk about religion, better if we talk about ports. they keep the players motivated there through hope, sure. but in the stock market, hope is a mistake because hope supplants reason when we talk about stocks their rade in single digits. you tell yourself, i bought the stock and now it's at five, now it's up for, i hope it goes back to five and then i will tell. how hard could it be, right? wrong. no company ever sets out to have single-digit stock. most companies fight tooth and nail to keep their stocks from going to single-digit territory. when you find something that sells for just a few dollars, the market has rendered a harsh judgment indeed. when you i hope become part of the equation you can hold these low-quality pieces of paper and waiting for something that will likely never occur. forget hoping and waiting for higher prices. cut your losses and move on to
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a stock you can actually see that could go higher under its own power, not because of hope. because hope cannot be the reason. are there times when hope pays off? there was so much easy money and so many incredulous investors looking for an easy win but the moment the fed took that away, that playbook blew up in your face. anyone who kept buying stocks with borrowed money basically got eaten alive. it pays to be realistic, so prepare for corrections. whatever you do, do don't make stockpicking decisions based on hope. let's go to denise in massachusetts. dennis. >> dennis, dennis. >> how are you?
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>> you are very kind. i had a question if there are any common mistakes that people should avoid when managing the 401(k)? >> i think what people do is take too many based on thinking oh, it's for the long term, they take flyers. i think it's fine if you take flyers in the teens or low 20s. you have your whole life to make it back. we want standard strict discipline, good dividend, good balance sheets. being realistic is key. expect corrections and, please, do you know what? i will share why this is a winning strategy and how do you determine what to sell? i will give you my plan and one
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of my favorite asked x is getting to hear from you. i will bring in my investing club partner to answer some of your most burning questions, so stay with cramer! power e*trade's easy-to-use tools, like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless. and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting
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more convenient, with information at the push of a button. some things are unimaginable, it was much harder to do homework in the old days and took effort and today you can search everything and then there is chat gpt. the internet is great for investing but there are a lot of problems and we need new rules to help. you have to be able to explain your stock picks to another human being. if you can explain it, you don't understand it enough to buy the stock in question. in the old days this rarely came up with the rise of the internet took a break to the process. talking to another human being about what you want to buy. you can talk about that. you don't even have to pay that commission.
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they need to explain this. preferably an adult but you fall back on explaining that. buying stocks is solitary, suit -- to solitary. we can make big ones. if you want to cut down on these mistakes, you should force yourself toward teaching someone else why you play that stock. do you know how they make their money? how earnings are supposed to look? if you don't, you set yourself up for trouble. so many people in biotech stocks don't have even the biggest understanding of what the company does or how it could possibly turn a profit. they don't even know the pipeline. they just know that it's hot and that is a bad reason to buy.
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i urge you to be able to articulate why you own every stock in your portfolio. that way, if the stock gets slammed, you know whether to cut and run or buy more. if you don't actually know what you own, you will get slaughtered with the next decline and you will sell at the bottom and there is always a next decline. with my old hedge fund, i made my employees sell me the stock before i would pick or buy it. pitch it to the boss. if you are in a position where you pick stocks yourself, get someone to listen to you and let you articulate your reason. i always think to say hey, what's going to make this dog go up? what is the catalyst, or, how we missed the movement? what is your edge? these are important questions. if you can't answer them, you shouldn't be buying.
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this is not the only thing you need to be wary of. there is something else to watch for. the internet has increased the power of the wall street promotion machine. you don't have to like it, but you have to acknowledge its power and you have to know what it is. when wall street falls in love with a stock, it goes further than anyone expects to hype that stock to high heaven. we saw this in 2021, '22, managing -- merging with special-purpose acquisition vehicles. eventually there were a lot of little acquisitions, but they realized that they can use mergers to bring hot startups public while skirting all the intense scrutiny you get when you added to an ipo. and how about collection fields ? these were a totally made-up forecast and went out many years into the future.
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if you do this with someone with a real ipo, you might be in prison. if you go to a bank to borrow money for these protections, they will laugh you out of the room. yet, wall street lets these back deals happen. the security change commission was asleep at the wheel and you couldn't count on it. there was no one around who says, you know what? we shouldn't give you possible estimates and media productions, we should enclose our eyes to it may not work, because they want the money. they don't care that you and the people running this, they didn't tell us. we couldn't even spy it. the most egregious of these operators got prosecuted but not until they lost people fortunes and the level of illegitimacy was ridiculous. this started with an electric vehicle with a sock that stored
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to the stratosphere and it made outrageous claims that could not be backed up by the facts. this is the doctor video of the electric talk -- truck, they rolled it down to make it seems like it runs on its own power. this is the dumbest fraud imaginable. the next time you see this kind of enthusiasm from a dubious person, take your cue from public enemy. don't believe the hype. one last thing, and this is true of all media, but online and off, whether watching tv, like you are watching me, or scrolling through tweets, please be skeptical. it pays. my general approach is that what you hear on tv is possibly right. same goes for the web but you have to be a lot more careful because there's a ton of junk information and uninformed commentary online. chat gpt? google and after, okay?
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just because someone says it's on tv, doesn't mean it's true. you can't believe everything you hear is one reason we bring high-level executives on the show. they can still mislead you. if a public company's ceo outright lies about how the business is doing, let's just say they are -- their legal bills will start to add up, you get me? generally speaking, you see a lot of people come on television and for legitimate reasons, and can help themselves when it comes to being promoted. when someone comes on and says that some plunging stock is a buy, do you think, that sounds like a good opportunity? no. you must wonder that he is stuck paid is he bailing on a
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bike? you know it's hard to tell? where's the bottom line. always be able to explain your stock to another human being and never take anything on faith in this business, not gospel, not from wall street, and especially not for money managers who love to come on tv and tell you that they are right 100% of the time. "mad money" is back after this break. coming up , let your flowers blossom and let your winners win. key tenant to keep your stock smiling. next.
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no matter how smart you are, how well-informed, how lucky, sooner than later, you will make suboptimal pics, which happens to the best of us. every portfolio manager has a few dead. the difference between a good investor and bad investors how you handle those lost his. i don't know. professionals and amateurs alike hate doing it and i hate selling for the general trust but it has to be done. somehow we keep hoping. this is somehow wrong. the weakness they see, and others will soon recognize the value of the stock in question which is all well and good. maybe you want to raise some cash because your portfolio is to stock heavy.
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maybe you have real-life expenses that require you to put together cash in a hurry. well, this is where the tendency to hold shows its sinister side. a lot of investors would prefer to sell their best performers rather than their worst performers and they will sell their winners to subsidize the losers and that is where it is wrong. you have the spirals, the bad stocks. this is particularly dangerous for the hedge fund. it's a vicious circle and if you keep selling to get their money back, it becomes a nightmare. vicious. you only have a finite amount of capital. far too many people remain in denial and pretend the losers aren't losing. thus, my role, never subsidize
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losers with winners. anyone who is stuck in this position, it's simple, sell the losers and wait a day. go back the next day. by the same token, you can't keep hanging onto low-quality stock just because you hope for a takeover. i get it. nothing is as lucrative. you can have a lifetimes worth of games in a day from a takeover which feels good. i don't blame them. they are buying a lot of bad companies in the hope they may catch the bid. the funny thing about bad companies is they rarely get bids. in reality, we ave great companies and cheap stocks. not crummy companies with stocks that seem cheap did so many people by this because they think oh, never speculate this takeover is with fundamentals. that could go down much more
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than you thought. even if a bad ompany gets a takeover, it will be a much lower price than what you initially pay and that's the thing. there stocks tend to go lower, as they should. you would do better buying a well-run company in good shape and get a takeover from companies doing poorly. it makes sense. not many ceos can turn bad companies into good ones so don't wait around for a company to be taken over. you could wait forever. especially in a world where some regulators have gotten more aggressive about blocking mergers. you can have that speculation if you bet on well-run companies only because if that does happen, there are other ways to win. you can confidently by more than the weakest and that is not something you can do with the company going from bad to worse while you are waiting irrationally for lightning to strike. please, please, never sell your
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winners to subsidize your losers. if you need to raise money for whatever reason, just take the loss. sell something underperforming with companies that have deteriorating fundamentals. if that's the only reason you have for liking a stock, you shouldn't like in the first place. coming up, the wise man and the whiz kid have your back. we bring together the power of the investing club to answer your questions, next. eligible y up to $500 spent each billing cycle learn more at citi.com/customcash from big cities, to small towns, and on main streets across the us, you'll find pnc bank. helping businesses both large and small, communities and the people who live and work there grow and thrive.
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my favorite part of the show, i am bringing you my portfolio analyst and partner in crime to answer your most burning questions. if you are part of the investing club, he needs no introduction but if you are not, though i hope you will be soon, i would say that this insight and back and forth helps me to do a better job for you and for all of my viewers and members of the club. we do this thing in her monthly meetings where we give you an in-depth look on portfolios and answer burning questions that i know you have. if you would like, we would love for you to join the investing club. so, let's go to nancy who asks, when you advise people to take out their cost basis and play with that money and let it run,
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at what point do you suggest people take the profits? i always find it difficult because i obviously want people to take their cost business out and i don't want them to miss out on big moves. cross disciplines, but i favor making sure they don't lose the gain. i don't know. i mean -- >> absolutely. no one ever got broke taking a profit. i think of eli lilly in '22. it was a big thing, but because it was doing so well, a lot of jobs are being approved. every 20% or so higher, i think that is a good way to look at it. >> it is an art, not a science and i think that worked well for us. we take that question from her, who wants to know, jim has been talking about battling the stocks that are down. what does that mean?
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dumbing down from the cost basis once you sell the stock? this is so tough because we want to try to get our cost basis lower by buying some and scaling out that goes up rapidly and this is again, i think we go back and forth because when we are battling, sometimes we are stuck. >> do we have a broken stock? i think that's all part of the process. rogan stock? you have to have patience. >> and broken company, you have to sell. let's go to michael but can you recommend a few stocks when you would vest for young children
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or grandchildren? there always be a time when i say look, you have to go watch some disney, i find disney troubling. the breakfast table, the dinner table, campbell's soup but a young person should go for technology. i am thinking maybe drug stocks, or may be what you do is you try to find some new kind of technology years from now. >> use companies with a lot of products and services that the young children would use every day because that is a great way to learn not only about the company that they have an investment, to get started with investing, too and it's never too early to get started with investing. >> i think that is terrific advice. i do think that this is fine, it's just that it's a little --
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>> apple, amazon, alphabet, people use these products every single day and will get acclimated to it when they are young. all great companies. >> i agree. right here on jim cramer. see you next time. right now on last call, the news that crypto has been waiting for. a huge cord win since bitcoin and its competitors is soaring. will the victory be short- lived? president biden reveals a landmark plan to cut prices. the side effects could prove harsh. the runaway rally smashes into a brick wall. mehta uncovers a chinese influence operat
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