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tv   Squawk on the Street  CNBC  August 30, 2023 9:00am-11:00am EDT

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the markets. the futures are higher. turned into that direction as we got adp. that was 177,000. that was weaker than expected. not too much. they were looking for 200,000 jobs number. you hear steve and others talking about that being the cinderella number. the nasdaq up by 20. want to thank robert and mike for being here today. good to be with you guys. >> we'll see you back here tomorrow. now, "squawk on the street." >> good wednesday morning. welcome to "squawk on the street." bulls trying to make it four-straight gains after yesterday's action. best day for the s&p, inssince early june, on more signals the market is equalizing. it's about a three-week low. our road map begins with economic data. job growth slowing sharply in august.
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>> the biggest lagger on the s&p. it's posting a third-straight revenue miss. that's the longest streak with that company. and keeping eye on hurricane idalia making landfall in florida. it's been downgraded to a category 3 storm. we'll get live reports there. let's get to the markets and the fed, in light of the e ecodata. adp, 177,000. we were looking for 200,000. some people will take it. >> jolts yesterday was jolting. we were on and watching the yields decline on the longer end. overall. and the market had a strong day yesterday. the question coming into today, is can we continue? particularly, sort of the higher multiple megacap tech names in general. >> i know you've been watching nvidia and what the action told
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us. up 6% the first two days of the week. >> reversing, i would expect, response to an earnings report, the likes of which we've rarely seen. exceeding all analysts expectations. and the guidance, we pointed out many times, the stock did not react positively. this week, that's a different story for nvidia shares. up about 5%. it did move up, into the print itself. of earnings. >> discussion that the a.i. fascination is reinserting itself. is it fair to call nvidia cheap? modest premium to a basket cheaper than alphabet. hard to imagine you can trade a
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company mid-30ss. that's where we were yesterday, with the recent lows. given the yogrowth rate, which above that of other names. you might expect the market to seem reasonable you could argue. i'm not going to argue, but let others argue. it's $16 billion in quarterly revenues on what analysts could be $25 billion a quarter. and being alone, essentially, in producing the highest end to power the a.i. applications that are being used. more questions about the end use, storage today, the smaller pla players the venture capital side of the equation. there is a deminuation of using.
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chatgpt has declined a bit. >> the market is tuned to what yields are doing. ten-year, that got to 410 yesterday. revisiting it today. the two-year got to 487. the market would love to see more signs of labor market normalization. quits rate yesterday, talked about jolts. adp, not widely followed. but thinking the 170 estimate for friday's job number is not unreasonable. >> we're getting a jobs number friday, this is one of the slowest weeks of the year. we're in the last week of august. we're dogging ab talking about . and it's easy to move the stocks around. >> meantime, the next guest is that revenue growth expecting as appear optimistic next year. a case for a sharper pullback in the second half. adam parker is with us here to
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kick this around. >> great to see you. >> yeah. >> as far as august goes. would we be lucky getting away with a 2% loss for the month? >> obviously, earlier in the month, we had pretty big pullback. last week, we got two data points. to me, everything is about perceptions of growth and perceptions of rates. good news is bad camp. and now, bad news is good. that's the other side of the quadrant. the growth rate looks okay. and i'm surprised by the cuts. every equity investor all day long, they can cut that many times. this is a one-day view or a
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two-day view. >> has your view on earnings changed at all, adam? i remember conversations at this desk, you continue to talk about the fact that we could see lower numbers. i think it was '24 or '23. >> we haven't changed our numbers. we're 225 next year. been there all year. we said maybe '24 won't be much above '23. i don't think the "v" shaped recovery thing. you had high nongdp last year. and you had huge pricing power. now, it's like, i don't say we're the whole pig through the python with covid. but we have a normal cycle with demand and supply going forward. i think we will have eroding earnings expectations and slightly higher earnings this year than next year. >> people worry about september, the cruelest month. others come back when your
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year-to-date combgain is this b it's not as bad on a seasonal basis. how do you think about that? >> astrological. you need a lot of data. talking to josh brown. he had the third year of the election cycle thing going. come on, man. i need like 100 years of data to have statistical numbers on that. it's about the market leads your roles by two or three quarters. we'll have an axccelerating quarter. all we're trying to figure out, will earnings grow at an accelerated rate? and it's tough to call right now. the market stays more range-bound. ever person has a challenge justifying the valuation. you're bullish and the s&p is going to 5000.
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you got to pay 20-times the consensus numbers for next year. 22-times my numbers. the market never stays above. the numbers are too low or we're at the end of a multiearning cycle again. maybe that's where we were. >> you were talking about the prospect of a.i. we were talking about nvidia. just curious to get your take overall, adam, to some of the names that are garnering some revenue increases from a.i. and those that are hope to but haven't yet. >> tag every stock. are you a beneficiary? are you disrupted by it? are you fake? are you fake a.i.?
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we track every word related to a.i. and every transcript. and there's lots of companies that use a.i. terminology that have nothing to do with a.i. guys have said, let's sprinkle some a.i. dust into our transcript and get multiple expansion. who benefits and who doesn't? in the set of the show, you nailed it. nvidia had the biggest upward sales revision. it looks cheap. it's the fastest growing megacap company. i don't know. it's all like a perspective. we wrote six months ago, when it was 700 billion cap. i didn't think it would happen this quickly. maybe it's two years. you get burned and things are open on time. i made that mistake many times. it seems to me, it's the easiest
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beneficiary. there's others that will benefit. when the market told you earlier in the month, i'm going to sell the good news and i don't believe it. now, i think there's a total change to all cyclicals in investing. if people think things are good years three through ten, they don't care if fundamentals are slow. we know we're short structured. other things where they don't believe the three to ten-year stories, airlines, i'm going to sell them. airlines are cyclical. they're not good business here. i think people still believe we need more. and years three for ten. overlook for the next six months and believe the dream long-term. >> i think that's interesting. you are pretty circle spekt about the broader market. you tell clients to overweight nvidia, right?
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>> when it comes to tech stock, you should be close to market weight. enough with the breath. and stop complaining about it. the names are not reputable by other securities. you can't by stocks that mirror apple with exposure. there's 60 analysts that cover these things. you can't know something about the stock that nobody else knows. and they don't have the risk to bask them. the market weight of apple, amazon, google, whatever. and maybe you want to own more nvidia and less of the other one, sure. make youralphabets elsewhere. if you're in that group, that's a lot to catch up with the other names. >> and what about fake a.i.? are we going to know who is fake? and are multiple points going to come out? >> i think so. i think some of the things are really discounting a growth that won't materialize. there are some that have products coming next year.
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i think they will participate. this specter of using things for gender replacing employees will drive expansion. i'm more suspect. i think about banks. i always enhance productivity. but it's an inferior experience with the end user and not expansion for the stocks. it 's not like, oh, everything that does a.i. goes off. but that's what we need to figure out. i think people got a little enth enthusiastic. it takes a longer time to replace employees. if you want to buy expansion 2027, god bless. i want the ones with the revenue
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now. now, move on to the hurricane hitting florida, making landfall on the big bend coastline, after being downgraded. it's a category 3 storm. let's go to nbc's jay gray in gainesville, florida. jay? >> reporter: thankfully getting a bit of a break right now. what we've seen is the outer bands of the storm moving through this area, throughout the evening and the early morning. heavy rain and the wind picks up and we get a break like we're in right now. that's going to change in the next couple hours, especially now that the storm is moving across the state. we'll see the wind pick up. we'll see the rain pick up. it will be sustained. we won't get the breaks anymore. we're a bit inland here. we're not dealing with what this is turning into a storm surge, a wall of water pushing in the coastline. the national hurricane center
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says the strength of the storm means that the strike point that is just south of perry, florida, could look more like a tornado has hit than a hurricane. it would be leveled as this clears. it makes its way up. we're on the right or the dirty side of the storm. we could see some of the more severe conditions as it does make its way through. the university of florida is here, and a few cfaculty is closed down. they are watching things unfold here. we think of florida and the beach. this is the part of the beach that has a lot of keys. that's an issue with the high winds and power lines, as well. you have 5,500 national guard troops deployed and in key
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areas, ready to move in once the storm clears. and the power, there's hundreds of crews just outside of the strike zone. they will move in. it's going to take some time. if you're in gainesville, a bit of a break. i think people have been lulled by the calming conditions here. we haven't seen the worst of this storm in this area yet. hopefully, guys, they will get back in and get to a safe spot. more of the storm is definitely on the way. >> for sure, jay. we'll be watching florida and carolina and georgia, as well, in the coming days. thanks so much. when we come back, what the commerce secretary told eunice yun exclusively. salesforce, octa. more "squawk on the street" ahead. causing
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the commerce secretary is heading back to the u.s., after a visit to china. >> she described her visit as productive. today in shanghai she visited various examples of cooperation, a boeing facility and
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disneyland. i asked her about the concern among american companies that china could be uninvestable. she said she told the chinese counterparts what they could do. >> jacactions speak louder than words. speaking with the premier and the vice premier. they were gracious and open. they said that china wants to embrace american business. now, let's back that up with concrete action. >> i asked about micron and intel, and two key metals that could disturb the semiconductor industry as chinese policy to retaliate against u.s. com companies, in a way to get back at the department's export controls. this is what she said. >> i think that retaliation, if it is retaliation, isn't good.
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that's not the way to attract u.s. investment. >> she told me, ahid all of the expectation, that boeing could potentially clinch some sales deal. she said if that deal were to happen, that would be a very good way for the chinese to really prove and rebuild trust by showing some action. >> eunice, the e.u. commerce in china said uninvestable is not a term for that country. is there some concerns that the chinese will let that remark go? >> they are not acknowledging the uninvestable comment. the chinese foreign ministry dodged the question when they were asked by reporters. saying that the u.s. should do more to try to prove themselves
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and engage more in this relationship. it's difficult to say whether or not the chinese are going to make a significant difference. at the same time, it is it's good to that two are walki talk again. >> for sure. and hope for a xi/biden meeting later in the year. eunice, we'll talk soon. more of today's movers, including hpe. quarterly beat. we'll talk to antonio neri in the 11:00 a.m. time. the bulls try to make it four-straight wins. we couldn't do back-to-back gains.
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look at laggers ahead of the open. hpe and hpq. demand not improving as quickly as we were expecting. they will be talking about that a lot later on today, on the heels of best buy's quarter pengerday. "oni bell" is coming up in six minutes.
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the environment is challenging for our business. customers are aggressively reducing inventory. that complicates our customers a' on going efforts. >> they guide the act quarter lower, as the computer visionmaker has the weaker-than-expected guidance.
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we anticipate customers' inventory levels will normalize by the end of the year, which sets them up for return of growth in the next fiscal year. apparently, not drawing down in the near term. >> no. we do not expect a recovery in calendar 2023. as you said, that's not pretty. a loss of almost a quarter of the company's market value. not sure what the read-through is. you put that on the enterprise side with hpq, on the consumer side. enterprise is important there, too. not a great read on demand right now. >> ambarella goes to 65. a downgrade of texasen. bernstein cuts to underperform 145. i don't know. we'll see what this means for the fastest.
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>> hpq cut its guide. worse than expected recovery in pcs. the key there. they're talking about ongoing channel inventory. and weakness in printing. you can see what the stock has done. looking at the comments from the call. biggest driver was we are not expecting p.c. prices to drive as much a quarter ago. this is driven by the channel situation at the market level. as we have normalized, the industry continues to have channel inventory. and so, aggressive prices. you want to buy a p.c., it may be a good time to do it. not necessarily a good time to own that shock, though. let's get to the opening bell. it's pharmaceutical service company celebrating a name
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change to cencora. and it's a nonprofit news organization, reporting on education across the united states. speaking of demand on the enterprise. we could have yesterday on the red book. talking about better crossover. monetizing some a.i. efforts. that's going to be key in the software space. and the comments about dreamforce itself. it might be the last dreamforce in san francisco. if the homeless situation disrupts the conference. >> i'm headed to a conference in san francisco. unclear why they continue to have it there. as for crm, the stock has stalled. you can see it on the chart after what was a strong and continues to be a strong year.
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settling with all of the activists. a situation, the likes of which we have rarely ever seen. four or more different activists involved. increasing the markets. the mow focus on what some said were the dominant franchise. we'll be watching closely, if they can sustain that double-digit top line growth, that has helped to fuel what was a nice run-up this year. you can see, has never made it back to the levels that saw the pandemic and right after. >> yeah. a mixed open here. the dow up 70. 0.3%. energy will help out the market today. we talked about hurricane idalia earlier on. 200,000 people without power.
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5,000 national guardsmen active with more on standby. about 14 million americans in its path. it was upgraded to a cat 4 of wind speeds 130-mile-per-hour. it was downgraded to cat 3 just before landfall. it will have impact on energy production, as we see that sector higher. and the s&p, about 4500. >> nvidia, as we look at the map and the expectations of the movement of that hurricane, which we will be tracking throughout the course of the day. i want to come back to nvidia. it's been a week for the stock. we had adam parker join us, at the top of the show, talking about his positive take on it. forecast to generate $35 billion in 2024 free cash flow. talking about a company with a
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3% free cash flow field. and that kind of makes it in line with, you know, as many as any other megalarge cap companies. you can go on. oracle and the like. it has been notable, of course. this week has been a strong one for the company. its highest market value. $1.2 trillion. >> all-time closing high, 487.84. could it get back above 502.66? i wonder how finely the market will slice this one. to see nvidia get an intermarket high, what that would do to sentiment, going into a new month. >> look at that 20-year. wow. yeah. it is a marvel.
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and of course, we'll continue to be one that we watch closely. amd shares, for their part, down a bit. continued questions, in terms of whether they will have a chip that does compete on a performance level, and a price level, with nvidia. that's something we will know in terms of the a.i. chip or the one that will help degenerative a.i. from amd. we look at the number of parts pants, we call them semiconductor companies. including abgo and broadcom. there's a better look at chips. >> and the techs out of bernstein. a bunch of autonews today. tesla gets reiterated sell over gugg guggenheim. they look at u.s. inventory,run ing at highs of the year.
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they expect that to result in further price cuts, which they suggest would weigh on investor sentiment. tesla lower today. and nitsa, the highway traffic safety administration, asked for more information from the company about the so-called elon mode. are you familiar with this, david? >> a bit. >> it doesn't tap you on the shoulder to put your hands on the wheel. >> i tried myself elon mode. really. why not? tlst been focus on this. plenty of critics that say it's not primetime. and others debate the other side of it. we have to experience the view. autopilot. >> nowhere close. >> phil was interviewing this morning -- the gm effort, right? that's interesting, too, questioning them in terms of whether that's ready for primetime. >> there's a bunch of moving
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pieces. adam argued to buy gm in the face of the uaw talks. says the changes are in terms of operational efficiency. you're going to last a lot longer than label dispute is. toyota, with global production above 10 million units for the first time. the supply chain has gotten better. and china's biggest refiner pulling forward their forecast for peak gas demand in china. they've made trades in e.v.s. >> they are the largest market for e.v.s. and so much of tesla's production comes out of the sha shanghai, as well. you're right. we talk about them being the largest emitter of carbon. when it comes to solar and e.v., the chinese are moving aggressively. that's interesting. i did not see that pull forward
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in terms of demand. that's a larger question, as well. i was reporting a year ago or more than a year and a half ago or so. when do you really see a signifi significant dimunition in product? there's plastic and fertilizer. it's hard to see a real end in terms of what oil production would look like. gasoline is not insignificant. >> david, 4500. we talked about the s&p reclaiming its 50-day. apple is back to 185. a dollar away from the average. we got the invitation, where we think we are going to get the iphone 15. the other news, in media, as we move to that area, is the killers of the flower moon.
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the scorsese picture. going to be limited release. now, globally wide release, october 26th. or 20th, including imax. apple's tentacles move into the movie business. >> interesting. >> the question will be how much more agrszive they get with sports programming. they can do whatever they want when it comes to content. given the size of the balance sheet and capital. the commitment is a small amount for them. that's a question of if they want to move more aggressively. will they consider a partnership with espn? if jim were here, he would be talking about soccer. it shouldn't be overlooked. it's not shocore of the busines. when it comes to players there, they can swamp them in what they can choose to do, if they choose
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to commit a certain amount of capital to it when it comes to sports rights and everything else. it bears watching. did notice our parent company comcast flirting with 47. a nice move of late. and the stock almost up 35% this year, in contrast to a certain extent, of course, to the likes of at&t and verizon. despite the upgrade yesterday. they are substantially low er fr the year. t-mobile hanging in there. a little below flat. yeah. no news, per se, on comcast, that i'm aware of. >> we talk about the at&t out of citi and verizon. over at wbd, chairman and ceo of cnn, as mark thompson is going to take over a job that was vacated by chris licht, amid a lot of attention. it's interesting to see how they
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put forward their digital efforts and what that does to the streaming space, how it affects news delivery. >> yeah. he's credited with creating much of the digital strategy of t"th new york times". they're targeting 15 million digital subscribers from 10 million originally. he was there for the outset of the digital strategy, which is viewed positively. also, executive at the bbc, mr. thompson. there's been a triumvirate overseeing cnn for the time being. he will take over. when it comes to warren brothers/discovery, cnn punches above its weight in attention, time spent. questions that he has to get about it. it was producing $1 billion in cash flow. that's not insignificant. certainly with the company that has the debt load.
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that's down, 20% its highs. and perhaps this also ends some speculation, would they consider some sort of a sale or other transaction? it doesn't appear that is the case. certainly, you wouldn't think so if you are committing to somebody for the long term. they got their work to do. ratings are down. and our sister network, msnbc, has been a beneficiary. >> highest rated month in a couple of years, the month of august, with a bunch of number ones against cnn's competition. home builders are interesting to watch. i don't know if you watched mortgage builders. purchase up two. refi up 2 1/2. some relief in the 30-year fixed in the coming days. we'll see. also redfin had some data out today. looking at the percentage of homes that are bought by real estate investors.
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if you see some of that, you see the investor constituency pulling out of that market, might be interesting to see what's going on with the math. >> hitting a lot of different things. there's a lack of structure. that's seen as a positive. we mentioned any number of times that new sales, something like 30%. almost three-fold above what they typically have been, if you have inventory picture that is more typical of what we've seen. a story i've been following for some time -- not some time. the last few weeks. back and forth about a hedge fund known as sculptor capital management. it's a battle between
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billio billionaires may not have added value in terms of investor base. but it made plenty of money. and they are going at it. there was a response late yesterday to complaints from danny ott. and a group he's associated with that has made a rival office to acquire the company, at ostensibly the higher price. but has not been given confidential information and not been allowed to seen as likely lead to a higher bid. has not been brought in to negotiate. sculptor coming in with special committee, with a lot of different rejoyners. it's extended onthe och's focus
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and levin. it's been his interest, stemming from the years of running the company. only when rithm, the xcompany that is trying to acquire it, refused to rescind that deal. they had concerns about the process, he could have asked the bidders with whom he met, given the multiple weeks with the bidders. he had multiple opportunities to raise his concerns. and then, in a separate filing, they point out he took home $3.3 billion since 2007, while the company stock price dropped by 96%. there was a time when many of the alternative asset managers started to go public with hedge funds. one of them at that time. pedestrian returns for its investors. they were not focused on
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outperforming the market, as in predictability. $30 billion in assets. much of it related to credit. one reason why weinstein leading that group, might be interested. we will monitor the back and forth. nothing better than watching billionaires fight, is there? >> a lot of bold-face name s on that story. the dow is doing well breadth wise. let's get to bob. >> i know this is supposed to be a quiet week. actually, it's significant because the macro conversation has really been strengthened this week. we had a weaker jolts report. today, we have adp a little weaker. this is the paradigm unfolding. we had concerns in the middle of the month about stronger economic reports. the markets are up 2%. up three days in a row. today, a little more mixed. about even on the advanced decline line. energy, health care, consumer staples doing well.
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energy and health care up this month. tech, which has had a choppy month, on an upswing. but flat today. you want to get a good sense of where tech is growing. look at the s&p growth etf. it's ibw here. you want apple, microsoft, nvidia, alphabet, tesla. you can see the turnaround. we're down 1% on the month. this is your big cap tech components turning around. as for the leadership group. an odd group here. a few pharmaceuticals. big industrials. quasi a.i. plays here. and a few smattering of energy stocks, like marathon petroleum. that's not as strong as it was after oil came off of its highs. as to where we are, we have strong reports in the middle of the month. right now, stocks are positioned for the soft landing.
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this would be either side of the soft landing. the growth, in the middle of the month, causing concern. and much weaker than expected growth overall growth. that has not happened to any tremendous extent here. stocks remain expensive. you look at the forward earnings estimates. we're a little over 19 times forward. that's a problem for the markets. there's no bargains for the overall stock market. china remains weaker. there's your main issue for what's going on. the big issue, can earnings support the equity markets right now? that's what we turn to. here's your numbers. if you add these up for q3, q4. you divide that by the s&p and you get 19.3 times forward earns. we need earnings to come up more to make the market more
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attractively valued from a valuation perspective. i like to track alcohol sales. this is wall street, folks. we have ron foreman. those of you that like bourbon. this is like jack daniels and old forester and woodford reserve. tequila is really popular. up 15%. and here's one i keep watching with amazement. this is canned cocktails. up 52%. so, forget about the jack daniels. it's the premium tequila that's taken off right now. and canned cocktails. i don't understand that one. that's popular right now. >> never catch bob with a canned cocktail. >> never heard of them. >> i know nothing about them. my interests are purely intellectual. >> puts on a tuxedo after 6:00.
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>> someone doth protest too much. we go to break, check bonds. two-year around 4.85. ten-year has crept up. but around 4.11. on the heels of a weak adp and that revision to q2 gdp. we'll be right back.
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quick early session highs as we've got only two components in the red. intel and 3m and 3m not by much. led by boeing, apple, caterpillar, visa and am ex. cramer's week long back to school special continues tonight on "mad money" at 6:00 p.m. eastern time. be sure to tune in. back in a moment. from big cities, to small towns,
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point of contention between small businesses and all businesses and the card networks. you have amex, block, coin base, robinhood, sofi, paypal, all down in august. the fees, part of the payment space are going in the other direction. seeing price cuts described as a race to the bottom by paypal, slashing prices for software that lets business accept payments. paypal does it through brain tree, so the play is prices and gain business and cross sell some other products for paypal. the price cuts have hit one competitor, adion, hitting a three year low last week. executives called out what they called competitive pressure in
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north america related to higher rates. but it was called a euphemism for pressure saying paypal likely helped in the decline of addyen. you have adyen dropping down 21% from a year ago. privately held stripe also operates in this space. you have fiserv, pace and block now subject to the price wars. appreciate that. 4515 here, pairing away some of the losses in in august. this is the highest level right now since august 10th. all sectors have gone green. industrials lead you, vix near 14 ckn mont.
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good wednesday morning welcome to another hour of "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with courtney reagan.
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david faber here. sara eisen has the morning off. adp comes in with a miss. s&p about 70 points from erasing losses for august. we'll watch that closely. >> 30 minutes into the trading session. three movers we're walking. ambarella plunging. the ceo warning of a challenging environment as customers reduce their unveninventory. hp falling also. and watch shares of pvh, beating on the top and bottom lines and solid growth in the asia business, of course that's the parent company of tommy hilfiger and calvin clein. july numbers pending homes, signed contracts not yet closed,
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so they give us a glimpse into the future. up .9%. up .9%. believe it or not, that is the best number going all the way back to january when it was 8.13. so even though that's the comp, it was much higher in january. now if you take a year over year perspective, minus 13.8. minus 13.8 and we haven't had a positive year over year number going all the way back to november of 2021. but that's sort of normal on the year over year looks. that series started in '02 and the first year and a half it was on record, it was pretty much very similar, lots of minus signs but we want to point out we are starting to see a little bit of life in the housing industry, and we know that yesterday kay schiller, prices are getting more buoyant. interest rates are down but well
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off their best levels and the reason they're down, we had less than expected horsepower on the second look of gdp with less inflation nar pressures. carl, david, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you very much. busy day for rick and it highlights the narrative that the market is highly tuned to whatever data we're going to get. it gets more and more intense tomorrow with pce and the jobs number on friday. >> it might be the end of august but things are busy down here i think with the markets it's interesting to watch the yield curve flattening, taking cues what's going on there. with yields on the two year yesterday down the most in four months wi believe there. so that's interesting to watch. we have the jobs report, inflation, manufacturing. a lot to go here to see if the fed policy is working. seems like maybe there's signs it is. >> takes me back to an area you focus on, retail and people buying things, we're largely
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through the earnings season. what's the overall take in terms of consumer demand in particular? >> i think it's interesting. consumers have shown a willingness to buy when you provide something they either need or want. i think that the abercrombie earnings were so kinteresting because who needs more pants or sweaters but they're selling things that people want so they're willing to pay. the consumers have money to spend, you just got to give them something they want to spend it on. the forward looking guidance is still conservative and cautious as executives are afraid we're going to see a recession in the back half. >> at least we're starting to see signs of it -- i wouldn't say signs of it, but some questions about that given the numbers. we haven't even gotten to hpq this morning but we will. for now keep the focus on fixed
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income as courtney noted it hit a two week low on the back of the latest read on jobs and the economy. steve liesman joins us more with what the fed may be seeing in the move of late. steve? >> yeah, david i think today's data suggests the economy at least in the rear view mirror was still strong but not as strong as first reported and the more immediate reports showing cooling in the job market as well. the adp numbers, a bit below the estimate and in line if you look at the bottom there with the nonfarm payroll estimate for friday. it's the wage number most interesting 5.9%, slowest pace of growth since august 2021. and job changes also up 9.5%. the other day there was a suggestion of an easing in the tight labor market and relief on
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wages. second quarter, gdp also helped as well, 2.4 is 2.1 consumer spending, down just a little bit. the price index down a tick. although real disposable income was up by .8%. that's good news. corporate profits coming in not as bad as they were the first quarter and a downgrade of private investment. responsible for the overall revision. all of this prompting the markets to back off. 56% friday the middle of the afternoon after powell's speech now around 41%. i suspect over time we'll bounce above and below the 50% line. tomorrow's report is going to be important because the outlook when we learn how much of the lower growth and inflation numbers happen in june compared to to earlier in the quarter. >> steve, really quick.
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just on the prospect and the dynamic of ongoing strikes, how much is that buffeting the friday data, do you think? >> it's going to play a role. it doesn't play a role, i believe in the adp data, di differences in methodology. i think the number was 16,000 affected there. the other elements going on there, the yellow trucking bankruptcy may play a role in that. there will be a lot of noise in a report that's often noisy because you have the teachers returning in august, some in august, some september. so there's a lot of noise anyway and now there's other noise in the economy that you want to step back and look at the details before we start to shout. >> that won't stop the market from having a knee jerk response on friday. steve, thanks. let's turn to apple this morning the company sending out invites for the launch event
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tuesday september 12th. expected announcements include the iphone 15 and maybe watches. there's a buy on apple, price target of 210. good to see you as we're about to the 50 day, spent a few weeks below it. i wonder, what do you think that means in terms of long-term support? >> listen, apple seems to do better when people are concerned about the environment, it's obviously a more defensive name versus not. so i suspect that's helping apple a lot, a fair amount and the stock is running up before launches so you've seen that and perhaps a defensive nature on the stock. >> what are you expecting on the 12th? >> it's the iphone 15, i think the innovation on iphone 15 is the skewed towards the pro max, the high end models they'll have and the new apple watches. although based on the data it seems this is incremental, the big update on watches will be
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next year as well. but the phones, the high end skews will be better indication, better camera, better casing. but even if units don't grow much, a point or two, it could shift consumer buying to the higher end models where it may be more. >> what would be different in your expectations about the phones on the lower end? you talked about the innovation in the higher end phone. expecting anything for the models below that? >> what's typically done is whatever you see in the 14 pro max will come to the 15s. the island there will come to the 14. so it'll be all incremental. but a lot of stuff on the high end models of the 14 bringing it to the 15 now. and bringing charging devices so we have to see what we do with the lightning cable down loads.
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>> how closely do you think tim cook is watching what's going on between china and the talks with high government officials and the supply chain for apple and manufacturing. >> china is immensely important for apple in terms of the supply chain and demand bases. what's happening at the macro level is crucial. but you're seeing signs of china consumer weakness. we heard hpq talk about it last night and a couple other companies as well. there are a couple of orange flags, on the demand side it's concerning, more so than anything else. >> but the iphone is still the driver of pretty much everything. a year from now are we going to look back as a successful introduction of the latest? >> this is what i say. you have a billion iphone today and the average is about four
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years old. it needs to be a decent product, doesn't need to be revolutionary. i think you look at it and say, you may have hit a natural resistance when it gets upgraded and this phone gets you there. the main thing is how often does it move apple asbs. >> it's going to be interesting. always a fun ride when we get the introductions. amit, we'll talk soon. let's check the road map for the rest of the hour. the health of housing as yields are down. plus tesla's secretelon mode and why regulators are raising concerns. it's been the best performing sector this summer many names in the group trading above the 50 and 200 day moving 'lavag. wel tell you what sector we're talking about and if more gains are ahead still. don't go away.
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take a look at the leaders so far. biggest biggest gainers on the s&p this morning. a diverse crowd there. e ck in a moment.
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not spreadsheets. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire pending home sales rising .9% in july, topping estimates for a decline and marks the monthly straight increase. joining us with his pulse on the housing is logan, the lead analyst at housing wire. first of all let's get your reaction to the sales numbers
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that came out about 17 minutes ago. what do you think? >> we're working from 21st century lows in demand. it doesn't take much to move the needle but we're seeing softness in the forward looking data, that will come up the next few months and we don't have a lot of people moving in america right now. think of the fed's policy for housing is like a covid-19 stay at home, that's preventing sales from growing in a meaningful way. >> that's interesting. there's supply and demand means so much in the housing market. if you have would be sellers not wanting to move, they would be paying more because mortgages would be higher, you have less supply, which drives prices higher for the housing that is available. isn't that the opposite what the fed wants to do when it wants to bring down inflation on an asset like housing? >> the american public isn't into the fed's housing policy. we're seeing home prices at
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all-time highs. there's nothing you can do unless you create a job loss recession and force people to move. on the one hand the federal reserve understands the balance sheets are bet erand americans are like we're waiting. they can do this for a few more years. so the question is at what point does the fed address this without saying random comments. the next time the ten year yield goes below 4%, let's not bring neil out saying 6% mortgages are bad. the growth rate of inflation is falling. job rates are falling. people have to buy homes and create households. so next time rates fall, fed relax, take it easy. >> the supply of housing obviously is also falling and it's extremely tight. what's it going to take besides people moving for more new homes to be built in america to ease this supply crunch? >> new listing data is trending
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at the lowest levels created in history. but this last move for the first time this year what i saw in the weekly data is we saw a noticeable decline in week-to-week listings. this is the last thing we want. which means we are again stuck near all time lows and inventory. and the longer this goes on, the one point when rates do fall it will have like a rubber band effect about people wanting to buy. it's not a good situation. so rates fall, you get a normal housing market. what we have right now is not very normal, not very healthy and the builders are never going to build enough to offset this. it's a waiting game right now because the american public isn't into the fed's policy. >> we keep reading or seeing data about the potential for oversupply in multi-family in austin, charlotte, raleigh, nashville and denver.
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how much of a danger is that. >> that's not a danger. it's a positive. traditionally home buyers don't go for apartments they typically have a bigger household so that doesn't really imply to the home buying market. but definitely more supply is a great thing. we want oversupply in the rental because the growth rate of rents falls, inflation falls, that's a positive. so build it. the concern i have is rates have gone up so much so fast we're starting to see construction projects being pulled, multi-family units under construction being pulled. there's a point where you keep rates high enough, long enough to impact supply. that million apartments under construction i don't believe that will get finished to the degree we hope for. so hopefully we can get the oversupply in the rental markets get rental disinflation. that will be positive for everyone in the united states. >> one area it's been positive
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for is the home builders themselves. i don't know what extent you care about the stocks moving higher but it seems the area you're describing is a positive for many that build these homes. >> the builders were at such a disadvantage in the previous decade because there was too much supply for them to compete with, their homes are obviously more expensive but in this case we have homes that haven't started yet, only 108,000 homes but they're going to slowly manage their marketplace because they're going to make as much money as they can. obviously rates going up higher makes their buy down premises harder. but the builders are in a good spot, good pr them. we know more homes to be built, single family apartments. the best way to deal with inflation is always supply. defeating it with short term demand destruction is a short term issue. over the long term supply is the best way to defeat inflation.
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i don't believe that they'll ever oversupply a market how they construct the homes right now. >> very interesting. certainly the discussion isn't over because this housing market issue is one that is ever prevalent. thank you for joining us here today, appreciate it very much. >> pleasure. crude oil meantime near 82, highest level in a week, home energy is the best performing sector of the month and the summer. now we have a cat 3 hurricane making landfall. >> the recent move higher means every stock within the energy sector is above the 50 day moving average which is a widely watched momentum indicator. the materials sector is a far second at 55% with tech at 54%. energy really stands out here because for the overall s&p just 44% of components are above this key technical indicator. energy also leads when it comes to the 200 day moving average with 87% of the sector trading above that level compared with
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54% for the s&p. the strength follows a sustained move higher for oil on the heels of production cuts from saudi arabia and strong demand for petroleum products. plus with the group's relative under performance for 2023, investors could think the space looks more attractive. energy is, quote, in a league of its own. but jc o'hare did note the last time this happened in november it marked an intermediate top four energy so he said caution in the short term is warranted as the sex or the catches its breath but further out the trend is song leaders investors to buy any dips. a quick programming note, an interview you do not want to miss, brian sullivan is going to sit down with robert f. kennedy jr., tune in to last call at
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7:00 p.m. eastern time. in the meantime giving up some of the initial pop down 30, "squawk on the street" is back in two. to duckduckgo on all your devie
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join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back. here's your cnbc news update. russia said ukraine launched the largest drone assault on the country since the start of the war destroying four military transport planes leading to airport closures and flight delays. ukrainian officials say russian forces also conducted a mass i have drone and missile attack on kyiv which killed at least two people. days after india successfully landed a rover on the moon, the country is setting its sights on something bigger. the sun. india is set to launch another spacecraft on saturday that will be put into orbit around the sun so it can study the star's
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effect on space weather. hurricane idalia is lashing florida's coast with winds up to 120 miles per hour. an extreme wind warning ended minutes ago in perry, florida where the national weather service warned people to treat the gusts as if a tornado was approaching. guys? >> thank you very much. gina roman doe wrapping up her high profile trip to china today. eunice joon is live with the latest. >> reporter: that's right i've been following her for her trip, now in shanghai. throughout this time her main message today was that she feels that she was very productive on this trip. today in shanghai, she whirled around visiting several examples of china cooperation, shanghai
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disneyland, nyu's local campus and a boeing facility. in my exclusive interview with her, i was asking about the concern she had expressed to american companies felt that china could become uninvestable. she said she told the chinese what they could do to address that concern. >> speak louder than words. in all of my meetings, speaking with the premier and vice premier, they were gracious, open, they said that china wants to embrace american business. so now, let's back that up with concrete action. >> reporter: i also asked her about cases like micron, intel, and chinese export curbs on me metals. she said that -- i asked her if this was actually seen as a chinese policy possibly to retaliate against u.s. companies
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for her export controls. and this is what she said. >> i think that that retaliation, if it is retaliation, isn't good. like that isn't the way to build confidence or attract u.s. foreign investment. >> reporter: she also told me a boeing deal, which has been much discussed and buzzing about throughout her trip could be a good example of an action by the chinese to rebuild confidence among the wider community. >> what's the feeling on the ground? how is china feeling about the visit? about what she's told you? >> reporter: well, the chinese government hasn't really been addressing that word, uninvestable. so the foreign ministry today wasasked about it and kind of dodged the question, saying i'll push back saying the u.s. is the
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one that really needs to do more to show its actions and sincerity for engagement. but at the same time, the fact that she's been going around when she was at shanghai disneyland, she ended up embracing a little girl and a lot of this has been spilling over onto social media. and one of the other things that's interesting about these trips of these high level american officials is the soft power that's been coming along with it. where people see american officials in a different light. especially when compared to chinese officials. >> is there anything the u.s. can offer? you know, in terms of trade restrictions or any number of other things that perhaps will perhaps change the tenor of things as well? was there an ask from the chinese? >> reporter: definitely there have been asks. she said that some of the asks have been to ease up on the
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export curbs and also on investment screening for chinese investments. she had said no, she wasn't going to do that because from her perspective national security is the utmost importance. but yeah, it's difficult to know whether or not the u.s. would be willing to make any concessions, maybe tariffs, that's something that people have been seeing, especially within the business community, as a possible move or something that the u.s. could give. the problem, though, of course, is that the u.s. before giving up on tariffs would have to see action on the part of the chinese. so that the biden administration wouldn't be seen as kind of giving something up for nothing. so -- and when you look at what the chinese are doing, there isn't been a lot of movement as to exactly whether or not the chinese are willing really to engage in the way that the biden administration wants. >> that said, it does feel like
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her visit was the most expansive of the senior officials who have gone after blinken, yellen, and i wonder if the prospect of a heads of state meeting, biden, xi, if that gets talked about now? >> reporter: it's already been disc discussed in terms of just within the public and state media. a big question mark. a lot of people are hoping we'll see the two leaders, a meeting later this year that xi along with secretary blinken, secretary yellen, and secretary kerry have all laid the ground work for a very, very senior level meeting between president biden and president xi. another impotence is that the economy here hasn't been doing well. she was asked at the press gaggle on the train whether or not she had any sense that the
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chinese leadership were more willing to speak with her as well as the rest of the u.s. administration, because of the economic slow down. she said she didn't really get that sense but from her perspective she believed that the chinese were responding to the fact that the u.s. was putting itself out there saying yes, we are sending these leaders to china. you know, she didn't say this, but i was thinking the optics don't necessarily look that great when you have the u.s. officials sending over -- sending over officials to china and not so much the other way around. but at the same time it seems as though for her one of the main messages and goals was to reboot engagement. and she feels that she's delivering what the u.s. business community wants. which is to really build up a strong channel of communication to at least try to move the relationship forward. though she said she does, david,
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want to make sure that there is action on the part of the chinese. that it's not just words. >> that's always the key. thank you for your reporting. eunice yoon from shanghai for us. our next guest said she advanced offensive and defensive trade aspects. joining us is joe moon, founder of china moon strategies. jeff i want to get your take on that, but i'd love you to respond if you can to the secretary's comment that china, at least from what she hears from business leaders is uninvestable because it's too risky. do you agree with that? >> she has raised, as a u.s. official, concerns that most businessmen don't dare raise for fear of retribution. investors want to make predictable investments in a stable policy environment with
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predictable outcomes. the problem is they can't engage in routine business activities because they can't get information to evaluate markets, do due diligence or exchange information between offices. i think the underlying problem here is that chinese officials have yet to grasp the enormity of the changes over the past few years and using the same approach with foreign investors. assuming that businessmen will do business in china without regard to the conditions they impose. and clearly it's demonstrated to the contrary. there are a lot of references to trade being the balance in their relationship. and clearly that has not been the case in the past few years. and the fact that trade is not the balance may be the reason why relations have been so unstable. also wishful assumptions that america is in decline. so i really think that it's time for the chinese officials to
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re-evaluate their play book and the calls through concessions aren't well placed. china needs to think a new approach through. >> to what extent do you think they'll actually do that? and was the secretary's visit helpful in terms of helping them to get to that point? >> the visit clearly was helpful because this is the force of the visit, it was the most consequential because the previous visits were all about just getting ministers to re-establish contact with each other. and in this case they actually authorized the bureaucracy to get back in business with each other to solve problems. so, you know, beyond the general statements you see at these kinds of meetings you need to have longer discussions and it's important to do that. we've gone from broad engagement during the obama years to no engagement in the tariffs war. and now the pendulum is swinging
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back that we'll have partial engagement through these working groups. the chinese want to talk about trade. it's not clear if they want to go into other issues or get deeper. we just need to wait and see. >> jeff, does it feel like the lowest hanging fruit right now is travel and tourism and maybe getting direct daily flights going? >> yes. i've always thought that people to people exchanges are the easiest way to renew relations. you can look back to ping-pong diplomacy that's how it started, people to people exchanges. i think that's the way to get things started. >> to what extent, the difficulties they're having in their own economy is that a motivating factor here? >> i don't think they'll admit that but i think it is. i think they have unprecedented problems, long-term structural
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problems that cnbc has discussed at length and that has to have an impact on their thinking and raises the importance of trade. they want to talk about trade because they have an enormous trade surplus with the united states and that may help them, actually, in their financial conditions. >> do you think they have any regrets about the severity of their crackdown on entrepreneurship? has that boxed them into a corner that maybe they didn't anticipate? >> this was clearly a mandate from the absolute top. i think at the head of state level, i think there probably are no regrets. i think there are other officials that probably do regret a lot of those steps and they probably see and feel the negative consequences of them, but they may not have the ability to voice their opinions. and they certainly don't have the ability to change the decisions. jeff, eunice brought up an interesting point about the u.s.
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officials going to china but it's not been reciprocated with the chinese officials coming to the united states. why not? >> chinese officials are going to be coming toll united states in november. there will be an enormous chinese delegation and that may lead to a meeting between biden and xi jinping. you raise a good point. the chinese have been playing hard to get to a certain extent and playing it up in the press that the u.s. wants the meetings more than china. and the u.s. has sort of, from a diplomatic perspective, acquiesced in that story line and not pushed back hard enough. i think they ought to push back harder because i think china needs the relationship as much as the u.s. does. there's a story that they're going to allow first time home buyers preferential treatment regardless of their loan
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history. how is that with housing and spurring growth? >> i think the housing sector problems are enormous and measures like that are taking a bucket of water and throwing it at a raging fire in a building. there's capacity, too much supply of housing stock, just making it a little bit easier for people to buy houses that don't need them i don't think will solve the problem. >> jeff, thank you. always appreciate it. >> thank you. >> bitcoin giving back some gains this morning after surging on hopes of a bitcoin etf. more on what's next for crypto after the break. we're less than a month away from delivery alpha summit where the top investment and business leaders breakdown where they see risk and reward ahead. scan the qr code or go to
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we had a nice pop on the dow this morning up about 150 points in the wake of softer adp data can, almost every dow stock was green, now settling back to flat as we lost grounds in financials and consumer discretionary. nvidia is up about 1% above the all-time closing high yesterday and we'll see if it can work back to the all-time intraday high of 502. bitcoin coming off the best day in a while in hopes the first etf could be approved soon. bob pisani has all things crypto. >> gary has to make important decisions. the ball is now in the s.e.c.'s court. a lot depends on if the chair wants to fold or fight to the end. the s.e.c. has several choices to make. the first and most important is whether the s.e.c. wants to appeal the case. the regulator has 45 days to
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make that decision. an appeal is possible but the harsh tone of a judicial ruling makes it more difficult for the s.e.c. to appeal. if they appeal, the other would be stayed until there is a decision on the appeal. but there are at least eight other applicants for a bitcoin etf that may have to be given a thumbs up or down in that period. the first to file was ark. they filed back in may. so the s.e.c. has a maximum time of 240 days to approve or deny those applications, including ark. so the first deadline would be january 10, 2024. if they decide not to appeal, they could go along with the court ruling and approve all or some of the nine applications for a spot bitcoin etf and that could happen fairly quickly. third they could come up with a new rational, why the applications should not be approved and get grayscale to sue them again. the s.e.c. can no longer say there's not a market of
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sufficient size to prevent manipulation. but they could come up with other arguments. like what? that's not clear. one final possibility, the s.e.c. could kill the bitcoin etf futures all together and admit they made a mistake. that's very unlikely given they approved bitcoin futures out there. so there is a real food fight at the s.e.c. there are hard liners who say bitcoin is baloney, we have no control over it, the exchanges, we need to stop it and fight it as long as possible and then i'm sure there's realists who say we have a lot on our plate the next few months we have to figure out a way to allow it to happen, slowly. probably approve all of it at once. so there's a fight going on here. my bet would be sometime in the fall they approve all of them at once. that would be my bet. >> can you say it's baloney and walk away? that seems super risky when
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there's a lot of people interested and invested in this area of the market. >> you say it's baloney that bitcoin -- the s.e.c. can't say it hasn't proven its use case. they can say we have no control over the regulatory aspect and come up with another aspect. custody is not clear. they need to come up with a new rational to turn this down because the court told them you approved the futures on this ground and you have to approve the cash because the futures. they don't have a reason. i'm struggling myself to come up with one that would hold water with the court right now. that's why i think the realists are going to prevail here. i think it'll be in the fall, odds are stronger they'll approve everything in the fall. >> do we need nine bitcoin etfs. >> there are a lot of people, blackrock, bit wise. we'll have matt hogan on in the next few hours.
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balcony, fidelity, vaneck. it's unlikely they would approve one and then just everybody -- there will be such a scream -- >> it's all or nothing. >> yes. all or nothing. >> do you want to give us a take on the action we've seen so far today? >> the important thing is the turn around in the data. the first half of the month was characterized by slightly stronger than expected data rates moved up. the last few days, look at the data, rates more stable, a 2% rally, up three days in a row. tech is turning around. look at the s&p growth etf that's what you want to look at. that is down 1% on the month. that's the big stuff you want, the microsoft, nvidia, forecast, te alphabet, tesla. that's been rallying for six,
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eight days in a row. on either side, though, the soft landing could be rong wrong, data too strong, market goes down, too weak, market goes down. soft landing, it's up. that's what's happening but seems the most the pain trade is market is down because something goes wrong. too strong, too weak, but we're getting goldilocks. >> when do you think disinflationary data makes people start to work about earnings? where bad news becomes bad news again. >> you can make the argument that this data is probably going to be out there, but yet, we keep seeing the markets -- the numbers keep coming in strong. in general, the economic data comes in strong. even when you get inflationary data, which is indicating deflation, it's still strong. bottom line is, you cannot figure out exactly what's happening right now. we can go either side. so far, goldilocks is completely working. and the earnings are slowly
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creeping higher. they're still not high enough to have a cheap market. i told you this morning, 19.3 times forward earnings. that is a very expensive market for the next year. and yet, yet, the earnings keep going up, the market keeps holding up. it's very improbable, what's been happening. >> i have to say, i am surprised. i was waiting for something a lot more serious to happen in them month of august that did nt happen. >> bob, thanks. we'll talk in a little bit. bob pisani. coming up in the next hour, the d danish company behind drugs like go, r wevya re profit interview you don't want to miss. (ella) fashion moves fast. setting trends is our business. we need to scale with customer demand... ...in real time.
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and once-in-a-lifetime. concerns growing around the safety of autonomous vehicles as tesla comes under fire for concealed configuration. phil lebeau, excuse me, phil joins me, he's got more on elon mode and a lot of other things, too. >> david, let's start first off with elon mode.
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yesterday there was a filing released as part of the investigation, saying that it has asked tesla about more information about its auto pilot software and the prompts that are given to drivers. when a tesla is in auto pilot mode, you are prompted as the driver every so often to put your hands on the wheel to show that you are engaged. according to the filing, there is something known as or referred to as elon mode, where, you may be able to turn off that prompt. so, mitsa wants to know how many people had that ability. meanwhile, when it comes to autonomous drive technology, a lot of focus what's happening with cruz in san francisco. three weeks ago, it was given approval to expand across the entire city of san francisco, 24/7 autonomous ride-hailing service. about ten days ago, they had to dial that back, because the dmv
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said, wait a second, we saw the accident where a cruise vehicle hit a fire truck and have seen some of the other incidents. we want to do a further investigation about what's happening here. this morning on "squawk box," the ceo of cruise defended the techn technology. >> it's really exciting to get caught up in the novelty of avs, but if we create a double standard and don't acknowledge the fact that humans are not very good drivers, i think we run the risk of getting people hurt. >> take a look at shares of general motors, the parent of cruise. remember, gm ceo mary barra has said that she expects cruise's annual revenue by 2025 to be $1 billion and potentially $50 billion annually by 2030. so there's a lot of optimism about cruise, but they're certainly going through the growing pains right now in san francisco, guys. >> they're going to have to keep making that argument, although people don't always make rational decisions based on the
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data, do they? >> correct. we know that we are not good drivers. but you at least say, okay, that's a human, i can blame. if your computer is in charge, people will think there should never be any mistakes. >> i know. and there are going to be. between evs and autonomous, so much to keep a close eye on, which, of course, phil lebeau is very important help. phil, thank you. as we say good-bye to you for this hour, worth noting that the s&p is in positive territory. the nasdaq outperforming that as well, up almost one-half of a percent, led by many of those names you know well in megacap tech, including nvidia, apple, and alphabet. "squawk on the street" continues after this. house, but when your team has to work seamlessly around the world... you need more than technology. you need cdw who can help transform your organization with built for performance lenovo thinkpads. pre-configured for management flexibility and equipped with the intel evo platform. responsive collaboration tools give your team effortless connectivity
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call miracle ear at 1-800-miracle and schedule your free, no obligation hearing evaluation today. good wednesday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with courtney reagan live on the floor of the new york stock exchange. is bad news finally good news? what this week's ecodata means for investors and the fed as we close out a rocky august. >> plus, hpe disappointing investors with its revenue outlook, but emphasizing the important role ai will play. the ceo joins us with those results this hour. >> later on, the ceo of novo nordisk, reaction to the white house's medicare price negotiation with two drugs on that list. >> toppi

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