good thursday morning. i'm carl quintanilla with sara eisen. the late august comeback marches on as investors digest the eco data. is this the beginning of a broader rally into september? an exclusive interview with campbell soup ceo mark clouse.

we'll ask him when consumers can expect relief there. sixth street's alex waxman on how much excess savings have been propping up this economy and what happens when, inevitably, those savings dry up. topping the tape this morning is the deluge of economic data. today's risk sentiment chalged up to inflation hike and the jobs market appears to be cooling. atlanta fed president bostic saying the central bank may not need to do more tightening. senior economics reporter steve liesman with us. does feel like, steve, the market is taking the data as a sign that the fed can do nothing in september, is that right? >> yeah, i think that's right. that's what the futures market shows. i don't think there's any reason to suggest the fed needs to do more here. there were some one-off things people are raising their eyebrows about. it was maybe expected. you know, that core services,

ex-housing thing powell follows, super core, some people call it. if you look at it, it went up 0.5% on the month, but half of that gain was professional management services. that's essentially stock market commissions. it goes up when the market goes up. so, no reason really to panic over that one. i look at the dallas fed's trim mean pce on a one-month annualized basis. it's up 2.5%. if we keep going like this, the fed's going to be in that 2% range in a few months from now. >> so, steve, is the expectation they'll pause in september and that will be it or they'll go again in november because inflation will still remain above target, which core pce is still, what, 4.2, more than double target. >> yeah, i'm looking for a coin on my desk, sara, because that's what it is. it's a coin flip. if you look at the probabilities for september is like 11% or 12%, whatever. and november, it's like 45%.

it's been as high as 56%. and they may, indeed, to want do another one. the question i have, and i'll ask you this one, sara, powell has laid out the metric of sufficiently restrictive. bostic said today, appropriately restrictive. so, the question is whether appropriate is the same as restrictive. it doesn't sound like bostic wants to go. i don't think goolsbee wants to go. there is a doedovish contingent wing that wants to go. there is more data on the way. this sets us up in a big way for the jobs report tomorrow where we want to see the unemployment rate be steady or maybe go up a little bit. with this big test being, if this powell idea, as far as i know he's one of the first people to mention it, that you can bring down these job openings and not increase the unemployment rate or maybe it goes up a couple ticks from here. does it hit below 200,000, which is a more much more sustainable

rate and our wages are well behaved? that's the expectation. if that keeps going, the fed has no reason to panic and hike again, in my opinion. >> you have on the other side waller and bowman who gets votes, lori logan gets votes. they see the work as being unfinished and don't seem worried about lags as long as the inflation shows there's pressure, and there are pressure in lots of parts of the economy. >> you're right about that. but i think between the two, i don't think these people are sort of ideological in a sense. certainly not lori logan, maybe -- chris waller has said if it's not in the data, he wouldn't be hiking. i think the data is going to show what the fed needs to do here. though maybe you're right. maybe there's enough of a contingent on the fed that wants to take out another quarter point hike of insurance that it may happen. i think at this point, sara, if it's a close call, the fed would stay on hold.

that's my take. >> goldman upped their tracker to 2.8 and atlanta came in 5.6. >> down to 5.6. now, we know atlanta is overstated at the beginning of a quarter. we did that work. it's up as much as two percentage points high in the first 30 days or so or 40 days of a quarter. it's going to come down. our cnbc wrap it up data has been in the 2.5% range. we'll probably update it this weekend or next week after the jobs report comes in. we're still growing above potential and inflation still seems to be stable or coming down. if we can hold those two factors in place and keep them going, i think that's the definition of a soft landing. >> yeah. tomorrow will be key, steve. sw we'll see you in a bit. >> just another one, carl. jpmorgan goes from 2.5 to 3.5 for the quarter. everyone is all over the map. >> morgan stanley, 1.9.

as we unpack the data, b of a predicting q2 will mark the trough in earnings. morgan stanley expecting positive flows as the pain of being underweight equities intensif intensifies. jpmorgan says this recent run for stocks can continue. fund strat says reason to believe s&p can add another 2% to 3% in september, go to 4600. joining us on set, mark lehmann, california president at citizens. good to have you. >> thanks. >> you are in the soft landing camp. >> yeah. i think the data is starting to prove that out. i think the economy continues to chug along nicely and the consumer seems to hold in there. what's what we want to see. >> have you seen enough progress in disinflation to soothe the hawks? >> i think enough. i mean, i think it's funny to watch the bond market have more volatility than stock market. you watch the ten-year moves, it

feels like an equity index rather than a bond index. there's enough attention on it. we've talk about pervasive job openings and wage inflation. it just feels like rate of range is going to come down. that's all we need. not anything more than that. >> i think of you as a tech guy. >> i appreciate that. >> sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. you've had a good year. it's had a good week so far. but there are questions about what's been baked in as far as ai expectations and a pause from the fed. >> i'm not sure i'm always bullish but i appreciate the sentiment. listen, i think a.i. -- i've looked at it. i think some of the stocks are overhyped. i don't think a.i. is overhyped. and i think you heard what marc benioff said, who is incredibly realistic. what he's done with his board. he tells it like it is. i found him, whether it's personally, professionally or even in politics, he's kind of that person. he said it pretty well.

he said it is the thing. and i think we're seeing whispers of that or glimpses of that in big cap tech. if you talked about the bubble and internet stocks, that was everything. that has not happened in a.i. yet. the bubble if anything is in the hype, not the opportunity. >> he did say on the cusp of revolution. every ceo he talks to realizes what an important role this is going to play in their own business. and i was surprised at the constructive comments about the city itself, right? >> i've lived there for 32 years. it's america's favorite punching bag. we deserve some of that right now. we have a lot of work to do politically, socially, the health crisis going on in this country is an epidemic. you look at the job formation and capital formation in a.i., a lot is happening in san francisco and the bay area. secondly, nobody's confused about the urgency to get it right. i think he laid down the gauntlet about dreamforce, which

is coming up, whether he'll have it in san francisco. i hope we take steps to do that. but, listen, i'm an optimist because i say the alternative is far worse than that. we have work to do. it's everybody. it's civic, private, public, partnership that needs to take place. >> where do you express your bullishness around a.i.? is it just buy nvidia? >> it's an easy thing to say buy nvidia. these multiples it's probably not the right thing to do. i think there are second tier companies that went public during the exuberance that no one is paying attention to. there's wicks that has done an incredible job over the last ten years of being a public company. company oddity we took public two months ago, a company that will make huge strides bringing technology into the consumer market and there's plenty of those behind it.

burying your money in seven or eight of the largest stocks is not what i would recommend. >> as we take a look at some of your ideas, a lot of people rooting for sfo as well. good to have you. >> we appreciate your support. >> thanks. still to come, can't make soup without stock. we have an earnings exclusive with the ceo of campbell soup, mark clouse. plus, goldman says this year's best performing dow component has maybe another 50% to run. it's at the top of the year-to-date gainer. we'll get to that call when "squawk on the street" comes back. to duckduckgo on all your devie

duckduckgo comes with a built n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch, it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today.

one stock story is campbell soup. stock is higher after the company reported profit in line with expectations, a beat on revenue, 10% increase in prices offset by 5% decline in volume in the quarter. the next growth catalyst potentially for this company, the $2.7 billion acquisition of sovos brand set to close by the end of the year. joining us in an exclusive interview is campbell ceo mark clouse. great to have you back. >> great to see you. >> a beat on organic revenue growth which is not super common in the food space right now and also the guidance you introduced came in higher than the street. so, what are you seeing that makes you more optimistic. >> i think we spent a lot of time, as you might imagine, in setting the guidance for the upcoming year to really try to get under the hood and

understand what the consumer environment and dynamic is. and a lot of discussion, a lot of question on that, but that really becomes pivotal as you think about the next four quarters ahead. and i think what we're getting more and more comfortable with is that although there are some headwinds we're experiencing in the fourth quarter, to some degree in the first quarter of next year as well, there's a lot of reasons to believe in momentum building throughout the year. whether it is the cycling of inflation and pricing, whether it is even some of the tail end of covid that was still influencing a little bit of the fourth quarter we just went through as early parts of the first quarter, or some of the consumer dynamics where consumers are being thoughtful about what's in their basket and making tough decisions. as the year unfolds, we expect our categories to be more favorable and selected more frequently, especially as you think about categories like soup

that in the fall and winter are far more prevalent. our snacks category, which has done extremely well, in this quarter as well, are in the basket any time of the year. i think when you think about that portfolio and what we're going to cycle, i think it's going to be a year of building momentum. i think that's giving us a lot of confidence in the outlook we provided today. >> one reason the stock might not be up as much as you like to see and has been pressured lately, and you get this all the time, is center of the store, not where the growth is, and also a beneficiary like many others in the food space of being able to raise prices double digit. we saw those again this quarter. those price increases have to come down. how do you respond to that? >> we will certainly cycle the pricing. i do not think as we look at the outlook for inflation, although i'm not seeing deflation yet, i am seeing a bit more of stabilization. i expect still a little bit of a

headwind in inflation in the early part of the year and improving throughout the year. so, there are, relative pricing should follow suit. i would expect a little favorability from price in the beginning of the year. but a more normalization. i also feel like because of the consumer dynamics we just talked about, one would expect to see recovery as it relates to volume and mix. i think that's something that we feel very confident in as the year unfolds. a little bit early in the year feeling, perhaps more like now. as we cycle through the first half into the back half, i really do expect to see a pivot or a shift here where volume mix becomes a bigger contributor. and i think our categories, again, are really well positioned and when you think about center of store, whether it's the snacking business that's been growing pretty consistently through this entire period of covid, inflation, even before that, i expect that to

continue going forward. our meals and beverage business has really performed well also. i think whether it's the sauces business through prego and pace, or whether the core part of our soup business, and we talked about that this morning, 70% of our soup portfolio has been growing 27% over the last four years. relatively stable in share this quarter but growing share over the last couple of years, and really positioned well for the future. and even the parts of that portfolio that have been a little more pressured by private label and value, like broth, for example, we feel good about our competitiveness and our ability to continue navigate going forward. a lot of good reasons to see this year as a year that will build momentum. and i think exiting in a really positive position. >> i wonder how you're thinking about next year in terms of portfolio management. are there going to be a healthy diet of brands that are available maybe to purchase? is m&a going to be more interest

or less? >> look, i got asked this question a lot when we announced sovos, hey, is that offense offensive or defensive play? i've been consistent. strategically it is such a great fit for us. our discipline as it relates to m&a really does narrow that feel. we really want to look for those businesses that help preserve the focus we've been driving but accelerating that strategic agenda. that's why we think sovos is such a great addition. it's absolutely an offensive play. i think that discipline is going to continue. i don't expect to see us doing a lot of m&a activity beyond that. we got a lot of work to get that one over the finish line. relative to where we are today, i think that you're going to continue to see us be very thoughtful, very disciplined. most importantly, building organic plan for campbell's that delivers that growth and

valuation we've been building. >> you and i talked when you did the sovos deal a few weeks ago. i thought one point you made, which would be interesting to hear more about, is where the rao's sauce sits in terms of the value spectrum and what type of consumers like it? you're going to control a pretty big chunk of the sauce market if the regulators let you go through with this. >> yeah, it's a very -- one of the -- as you remember from that conversation, one of the things we talked about is this massive and relatively dramatic price different shall between the mainstream and ultradisdistinctive where we are see rao's play. this is not a segment a prego can compete in. they're quite different. when you look more broadly at that portfolio, their strength as they expanded into frozen meal and frozen pizza has been very, very compelling as well. we see this very much as a way

to add or be in addition to the strategy that we've been building. boy, i haven't needed any more positive reinforcement for how special this business is than what i've received on social media as far as encouragement and ensuring we don't change the sauce. i promise you, we're not going to do that. we're very excited about what we're adding. >> don't do anything crazy. the goldfish -- >> i'm not saying rao's may not find itself in a couple of other categories along the way, but we love the sauce and we're not going to change a thing. >> appreciate clearing that you. mark clouse, ceo of campbell's soup. a lot of earnings to chew through this morning. chewy is one of them. we'll get to a downgrade from evercore grabbing our attention. bug is on pace for the best

month since 2010. head over to cnbc.com for a lot more on those quarters. this is cynthia suarez, cfo of go-go foodco., an online food delivery service. business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users tripled. which meant hiring 20 new employees - and buying 20 new laptops. so she used her american express business card, which gives her more membership rewards points on her business purchases. somebody ordered some laptops? cynthia suarez. cfo. mvp. built for cynthia's business. amex business.

european market set to close in just a moment. mixed across the board as financial services lead the way with food and beverage stocks lagging behind. worth mentioning some chinese data. numbers out of beijing showing factor activity did slow for the fifth consecutive month under that expansionary 50 number, even though new numbers did move. a cloudier picture in the eurozone as prices remain steady in august. although core inflation fell further, now on par with that headne inflation number, reminder that money markets are currently split on an ecb rate hike in september. the story abroad this morning is ubs. blowout earnings including a massive profit behind today's surge in the shares as the bank

reports its first results since the takeover of credit suisse. ubs announcing it will begin cutting $10 billion of costs. that does include around 3,000 jobs in switzerland. ubs ceo spoke with cnbc this morning on the credit suisse integration. listen. >> has proven that the business model was not viable any longer. credit suisse has excellent people, clients, product capabilities, but the business model was not sustainable any longer and needs to be restructured. >> shares of ubs at highs not seen since 2008, carl. the ceo was brought back in. he's the former ceo to oversee this integration. investors are already probably pretty happy with what they see. >> reduction in head count in financial services is nothing new. interesting to see financials lose a little steam going negative as the dow's gains have been pared to 36.

let's get a news update. former president donald trump with his in-person arraignment and pleaded not guilty in his georgia elections interference case. that's according t week on 13 fy counts over accusations he tried to overturn election results in the state. many of trump's 18 codefendants in the case also with their arraignments and entered not guilty pleas. supreme court justice clarence thomas released his financial disclosure report today. the forms show republican mega donor paid for thomas' travel expenses and meals on at least three occasions last year. his relationship with crow has come under intense scrutiny following pro publica reporting about previously undisclosed luxury trips he accepted from the billionaire. gannett will no longer use lead a's's sports writing teem

tool for high school recaps after getting widespread criticism for weird phrasing. they called one football game a close encounter of the athletic kind. is there still time to get into a stock that's up 70% this year? goldman sachs says yes. we'll break down why they say shares can jump another 50%, e ofoue,salesforce, crs onof the big winners today. ice works fast. ♪♪ heat makes it last. feel the power of contrast therapy. ♪♪ so you can rise from pain. icy hot.

here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today.

a couple hours into trading well off the session highs as bulls try to make it five in a row. let's get post to post with bob pisani. >> we're down 1.3% for the month. the turn-around is quite notable. tale of two parts of the month. first part of the month we had stronger economic reports. rates go higher. stocks go lower. second half of the month, more goldilocks reports, rates stabilize, stocks start moving up, broader participation. tech is the big turn-around story. you heard about salesforce here they are. great report here. here's what's important. this was 204 a couple weeks ago. now 223. it's flat for the month. it's turned around completely. not all tech stocks are flat for the month but this is a very good example of how this has been a u-shaped month for tech overall. another group that's broadened out in the last week or so is rates stabilizing from some

industrials. caterpillar has been a great performer recently. it was 270 a couple weeks ago. 283. that's a lot for a stock like caterpillar. it doesn't move a lot on a daily basis. then there are sectors that aren't doing too much. what are they? consumer names, consumer staply names, consumer health care names. johnson & johnson is down about 3%. there was a price cut on wells fargo today probably weighing on that. other consumer names, procter & gamble, coca-cola haven't done much. they haven't participated in the recent rally we've seen. another group that's trying to come back but not really are the bank stocks. they had a great start over in the first part of the month. this is pnc here. it was doing really well. it was 137 in the beginning of august and it went all the way down, 118 or so a week ago or so ago. most of these banks aren't appreciably participating in the rally. jpmorgan, some of the big money

center banks, goldman sachs is not appreciating in this rally. the bottom line, carl, we are seeing a little broadening out as the rates have stabilized. there are still sectors that are sort of lagging the overall market. >> bob, i'll check in with you in a bit. meantime, goldman's bull call on salesforce grabbed our attention. firm raises their target to 340. that's more than 50% upside. they see price increases in more generative a.i. products helping revenue in 2024. the bullishness not necessarily anything new. the stock is the biggest gainer on the dow this year. let's bring in steve kovach is talk about what would need to fall into place to make this call call true. >> it's not just goldman, carl. it's so many firms raising their price targets. i'm looking 6% upside trading up to 30%, and like you said, 50% for goldman. it's artificial intelligence. benioff was on the call yesterday talking about, look, we've rationalized our costs

here. we know what happened at the beginning of the year with all of that activist investor activity going on, the layoffs, the rationalizing office space. benioff said in a sign of the times they were taking the slack office building in san francisco and subleasing it to an a.i. startup. they wouldn't name which one it was but i think that's em emblematic of where things are here. and price increases. this summer they increased prices on a lot of their products and that helped margins, helped profitability and raise guidance beyond eps. now the question comes back to revenue. goldman and benioff talking about dreamforce, when we'll get a lot of new product announcements on artificial intelligence. salesforst has einstein, their a.i.-assisted chatbot they're starting to increase with technology from openai and others. that's going to be the big theme

in two weeks, from salesforst at their dreamforce conference and whether or not those products can recharge the revenue growth we're so used to seeing with salesforce. revenue was up 11% year-on-year. the year ago report it was up 22%, guys. >> and we've seen the macro impact of that. steve, that was my question. i've typically looked at salesforce as kind of a barometer for i.t. spending. certainly cloud spending. is it still that? the cfo did talk about weakness and delayed deals and some of those issues. >> yeah. that's still a factor here. the real question in this report, sara, is how much of this is cost cuts and efficiencies and even more coming down the road. remember, bane is doing -- looking at their business as well and might come up with more recommendations. you're totally right, sara. the cfo did say there are tons of macro headwinds. spending hasn't returned in the same way it was during the pandemic and before.

again, benioff saying we can make up for that with these new a.i. products we're going to offer. we can charge more for those products. i'll quote him. he said it's going to, quote, ignite a buying revolution. so, that remains to be seen, of course. a lot more pressure on those announcements in two weeks, sara. >> thank you. steve kovach on salesforce. another note grabbing our attention, evercore letting the dog off the leash, their words, downgrading chewy dropping price target to $35 a share citing a decrease in net customer adds and lower second half outlook after a modest increase in the first quarter. courtney reagan joins us. part of the note is the analyst did say, we were wrong being overweight on the stock. it's underperformed so far this year. what are the big concerns? >> look, when you look at chewy's quarter, it was okay. but in linish, a little softer than some expected in some of the metrics. it's going forward, i think there's a lot of concern. the loyal customers are still

spending actually more so than they were a year ago when it comes to that recurring revenue. you can set your pet's items to come on a recurring item like food and the like, things you're always consuming for your pets. that is doing well. the loyal customers are spending more. the problem is that the customers they have just seem to be falling. the net adds is a real concern currently and going forward. that's part of what evercore is concerned about. but also the discussion by the company that there does seem to be some more disconcerting spending with shoppers that are still shopping on its site. so, that's obviously a concern going forward when you're always hoping for growth. if you're not adding the customers you want to add but the ones you are -- that you have are spending a little bit less. >> everything is so sector specific in retail right now, category specific. and i always thought pets were sort of stablish. like you can never cut back. you can buy them less -- i guess, fewer toys but you still

have to buy the same amount of food and medication and treats. where does it fit in with what we're learning about the consumer? >> it's so wild what's going on with the consumer. like you pointed out. certain sectors may be seemingly doing better than others. then again, even within the sectors there's some nuances there. i think when it comes to this company in particular with pets, what they're calling out is some of their customers are, indeed, trading down. to your point, they are still buying food but maybe they're not buying the most expensive food like before. perhaps there's not additional add-ons. they're doing the bare minimum. there's also discussion about that covid peak we saw when everyone was adding pets to their family. that may sort of have been ending and potentially flattening out. and then in the very long term when you're talking about household formation, that's been a little bit muted, too. that could potentially also be a pressure. >> yeah. courtney, thank you. courtney reagan on chewy. one other quick note this morning, personal spending saw

higher than expected uptick but morgan stanley thinks the trend might not hold. economists believe the third quarter have been benefiting from barbenheimer, beyonce and taylor swift. we could see downside to real pce spending in the fourth quarter but taylor might have something to say about that, announcing a concert film showcasing the heiress tour saying it will play in all u.s. locations. she tweeted a link to amc where you can wait in line and buy tickets. no wonder amc is up 5% this morning. you were worried about the writers strike, not enough content. >> exhibitor relations, which speaks for the exhibitors, the theater owners has a tweet this morning, could this end up being the highest grossing film of the sn season? >> more than "barbie". >> if that were to happen, you would have studios thinking

about concert films. >> if anyone can do it, it's taylor swift. >> by the way, some people are wondering, does this hurt, people are spending so much money to buy tickets to the tour. if you're a real swifty, like me, you want both. >> you'll go again. >> you'll go again and again. up next on the show, one of the fastest growing global investment firms has a new warning about consumer savings running out. we got that savings this morning, 3.5%. we'll hear from alan waxman of sixth street partners in a rare interview? major indices trying to make it five gains in a row. s&p up senois osev pntcle to the lows of the session. ' about! (josh allen) is this your plan to watch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is? myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. (hero fan) this plan is amazing! (josh allen) another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. (fan #1) that was josh allen. (fan #2) mmhm. (vo) football season is here. get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us.

a $449 value. plus, get a free samsung galaxy z flip5. only on verizon. somebody would ask her something and she would just walk right past them. she didn't know they were talking to her. i just could not hear. i was hesitant to get the hearing aids because of my short hair. but nobody even sees them. our nearly invisible hearing aids are just one reason we've been the brand leader for over 75 years. when i finally could hear for the first time, i started crying. i could hear everything. call 1-800-miracle and schedule your free hearing evaluation today. we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a

life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

welcome back. cnbc is delivering alpha investor summit takes place at the end of september in new york city. ahead of that our leslie picker sat down with the ceo of one of the fastest growing asset managers as part of her delivering alpha newsletter. interesting comments you made about the consumer specifically. >> yeah, i thought this was interesting. it's in the context of not being quite out of the woods yet when it comes to a recession. sixth street's alan waxman is watching what happens next when americans run out of all that excess savings they built up during the pandemic. he says this could create more of a recession risk when they do. >>. >> we think somewhere in the fourth quarter is q1 of excess savings is going to go negative.

when people start drawing on credit cards, as you see the draw increase. >> delinquencies -- >> we haven't seen president the core consumer has been resilient because everyone has a job. everyone felt unemployment is so low. once it goes negative, what's going to happen to demand? how does that demand, if there's a slight reduction in demand, how does that roll through the economy? how does that roll through revenues? how does that roll through earnings? or is it going to withstand that because there's so much growth and new push from stuff happening with artificial intelligence. but what's going to happen after the fourth quarter once it goes negative, that will reveal what will happen. >> waxman involved in everything from direct lending to growth investing says a recession itself is, quote, so hard to call right now because the economy is really strong. the full interview which reveals more of his thoughts on the

state of the economy, credit, ipos, even sports investing will be in our alpha newsletter out today. you can sign up by using the qr code on your screen there. >> it's going to be interesting, leslie, when we do reach that point where the savings rate goes way down. excess savings has dwindled and whether the consumer shifts into a chapter where they start tapping helocs and riding on credit, getting us into areas we're familiar with. you've been watching the economy the last 15 years. >> of course, all of that comes at a time when going on credit becomes much more expensive because of where interest rates are. i think this is ultimately -- we might see more of the desired effect of what the fed is trying to engineer here with regardto trying to slow the economy. what's kept it from really slowing down is the fact the consumer has been so strong. and a lot of that has to do with excess savings. it's been a pretty long period of time they've been able to

work that down. but i agree with alan here that, you know, once that does turn negative, it will reveal kind of the true state of the economy. >> so, how is he positioned given that view? >> i asked him if he's talking with his borrowers, his portfolio companies about being more conservative. are you telling them to hunkser down just in case? he said prudent is the word he would use in his advice to his portfolio companies and other partners. be more prudent because we just don't know what the future looks like. he's not saying there's necessarily a recession on the table, but this certain characteristic in the economy, the fact that the consumer may soon pull back in a pretty big way is one that you don't want to be ill prepared for. >> we'll be paying even closer attention to the jobs number tomorrow in light of that. leslie, great stuff. thank you. leslie picker this morning. here's a question, why won't spacs die? that's the question many investors are asking after these

dismal returns and plummeting stock prices. we'll discuss athewee ckn o.th wn 'r

nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

i may be known for my legendary football career, but truth is, i love a bunch of sports. the only trouble is knowing where to find them. that's why i got xfinity. so, i can easily find and watch whatever sport i'm into all in one place without missing a thing. even if it's football, australian football, or football football. in a word—it's fitz-credible. i got to trademark that one. this season, eligible xfinity rewards members can get up to $100 off nfl sunday ticket from youtube. sign up for xfinity rewards now. we all remember the 2021 spac boom and the bust later. they might be making a comeback with better and vinfast debuting this month. our deirdre bosa takes a look at the return. >> they're as volatile as ever.

better.com's 90% drop on its debut and vinfast with 200% surge on its listing. the spac class of 2021 has settled, albeit far from their peaks. as a banker he led alibi ba's ipo and helped bring it public. he's now running an investment firm and he's looking at what he calls valuation arbitrage in that beaten down spac space. he's picked up shares in fintech dave, opendoor and grab, a southeast asian ridesharing. when it began trading on the nasdaq after the spac merger it had market cap of $3 billion. today it's less than $100 million. it's a big drop. khan says when he looked through the actual financials of the company, he saw one with a better profile than a series a or early stage startup that's still private.

but way cheaper in the public markets. >> the company has 2 million customers. the market cap is $85 billion. when i look at private market valuation and public market valuation, i think we're finding great value in public market. >> so, that's his arbitrage. he said >> that's his arbitrage. he says he has found that as well in open door and grab. so the value is there in part because spacs as an asset class have been such poor performers the last few years. khan said many spacs went public with unrealistic forecasts. >> the capital market is built on trust. and when you go public and provide some sort of guidance and are significantly far off from that guidance, you ruin your trust with investors. >> so i asked khan if he would support spac listings for any of his private companies right now, and he didn't rule it out but he said he would treat it more like

a traditional ipo, something he's very familiar with. he wouldn't provide any forward guidance. that's the difference between the traditional ipo and the spac route. guys, the reason, though, we're seeing them now, they're still getting money. look at better.com. they went public. it may not have mattered that it did terrible on its debut. >> i do wonder, though, what the benefit is to a traditional ipo if they still have that bad reputation. and not doing as much diligence, whether it's true or not. >> well, the traditional ipo takes so much. you have to actually provide, i think, two years of financials. so some of the companies that want to go public, they don't have that. they can only make forward projections. and the whole promise to the retail investor, let's get you into these companies earlier so can you have more upside. what happened instead you had bad companies going public and making unrealistic forecasts.

if you just need an injection, imran khan said you get good anchor investments. the problem with the spacs we've seen the last few years, they were raising money and getting enthusiasm from retail investors without a lot of fundamentals. >> there will still be an audience, dee, that argues, look, spacs allow a retail investor to get in on early growth stories because it's so difficult to get a piece of traditional ipos. >> can you imagine how they would go public via spacs? so much money for them, ai companies to raise, it's probably more appealing. you'll hear some of the complaints we've heard is the retail investor doesn't get to take part in that growth much of the growth will be behind them. on the other side of that, carl, a lot of these companies will go bust. there's a lot of companies doing

the exact same thing. maybe it's better it's flushed out. >> that would make spacs even more risky, thank you, deirdre. >> simon property group on how to deal with higheinrer test rates. those comments next. don't go anywhere.

we planned well for retirement, but i wish we had more cash. you think those two have any idea? that they can

sell their life insurance policy for cash? so they're basically sitting on a goldmine? i don't think they have a clue. that's crazy! well, not everyone knows coventry's helped thousands of people sell their policies for cash. even term policies. i can't believe they're just sitting up there! sitting on all this cash. if you own a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more, you can sell all or part of it to coventry. even a term policy. for cash, or a combination of cash and coverage, with no future premiums. someone needs to tell them, that they're sitting on a goldmine, and you have no idea! hey, guys! you're sitting on a goldmine! come on, guys! do you hear that? i don't hear anything anymore. find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

our market is actually pretty good. retail demand is excellent. sales certainly are not as robust as they were last year but, you know, pretty solid. and i think a lot -- no one would have predicted the bounceback we had from covid. basically back to precovid cash flow. the best stuff is getting better and the demographics of that trade changed or are being redeveloped.

commercial real estate is a bigger issue. for us that's a great opportunity. we do some of our best work when there is good dislocation. retail is fine and we're going to have to learn to deal with higher interest rates. but it's not something that we haven't dealt with before. >> a pretty rare comment from billionaire real estate developer david simon, chairman and ceo of simon property groups. speaking with me discussing the state of retail and commercial real estate post pandemic, we were there to talk about his deal with authentic brands and shein but wanted to play what he said about the consumer spending environment as well. simon property owns many malls in this country. and said they actually take advantage when it's a weaker market like this when access to credit is tough.

something to keep in mind, cash flow is back to pre-covid levels. >> is it fair to say it's comfortable to hear him talk about it as cyclical rather than a storm that needs to be weathered in the near term or the long term? >> absolutely, i think. the problem is clearly higher interest rates. the question we're asking is how much pressure the consumer is really under and does it spell recession? so far the market seems to be trading around this soft landing, no landing goldilocks scenario. still some savings and the fed reserve is winning the war on inflation. >> speaking of employment, an awfully big number tomorrow as the jobs number comes in.

unemployment around 3.5. we went into some of the individual calls with morgan stanley at 155. either way the consensus 30 plus months. we'll watch workweek as well. >> there could be weird quirks, the trucker bankruptcy. i think, remember, that's what the fed is fighting on the inflation front and the more signs you have wage growth and the unfloimt rate is a tight market. that could be what adjusts the expectations around what the fed does. it does feel like they will pause according to the market. >> you're dealer with longer term issues about the neutral rate and what ai will do for productivity, things that may not pan out right now. and then, of course, next week,

once we work our way through the holiday weekend, we will have a ton of conferences in retail and technology both next week and the week following and will see what corporate commentary says. >> so far overall earnings were okay and guidance was better. we'll see if the commentary fals suit. >> we'll see what happens in the morning. let's get to the judge. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the late summer rebound. stocks continue to rally back from their august upset. the investment committee debates what the fall might hold. josh brown, shannon saccocia, with us. we're hanging on to gains here. 408, the yield on the ten year. josh, the final trading day of the mo