josh brown, there it is, uber at the bottom. >> this is the stock i'm most excited about in the second half of this year. i think it probably finishes the year with a five handle and gets added to the s&p 500. this is like one of my favorite names. >> good stuff. thanks, everybody. see you on "closing bell." "the exchange" is now. >> scott, thank you very much. hi, everybody. i'm tyler mathsen in today for kelly evans. no surprise from today's inflation print, but ticking up a bit, but matching expectations. stocks are struggling to stay in the green. jpmorgan's chief economist will join us with his read on the numbers. recruiter sentiment falling to a new low. we look at the most in demand industry and the top priorities for employees. and two big chip names reporting after the bell today.

we'll preview results from broadcom and vm wear. and what's the trend, the trade? but we begin with today's market action. for that, we go to bob at the new york stock exchange. bob? >> we're trying to make it four days in a row, but a little weakness in the middle of the day, this is profit taking towards the end of the month. take a look at the major averages. we were positive until 15 minutes ago or so. the real weakness has been in the consumer staple names, coke, johnson & johnson, proctor and gamble. united health took a move down in the last hour or so. so a little bit of weakness going into the final day of the month. the real winner on the week is tech names. the nasdaq is up 3% this week. it's been tech, communication services, consumer discretionary have been the real winner. if you had a theme for the month, it's simple. first and second half. the first half of the month, stronger economic reports.

rates moved higher, stocks moved lower. second half, the better economic data, rates stabilize and stocks moved higher. the ten-year yield, that's the story for the month. we were 4% the start of august. we moved as high as 4.35%, and then back down to 4%. all the way up and back down that's what happened to the stock market, essentially in reverse. the s&p 500, we started august out, 4500, went down right in line with the yields. and then back up to 4500. you can see this in technology, the big winner. xlk, you can own this, same chart, same situation was 175 there at the start, goes down to 165, back to 175. it's a perfect little ball. you can see this in some of the big tech names. salesforce had great earnings today. exact same thing, 224, goes down

to 203, back to 224. these are one-month charts i'm showing you, indicating how much they're influencing the stock market. we've got a bunch of new highs. even tech stocks. we have a few new highs. alphabet, cisco at new highs, adobe at new highs. the vix was 13 when we started august, went all the way almost to 18, exactly in the middle of the month when the yield spiked up the highest and back down to 13. again, inversion looks like a lot like the yield situation. so mixed month for the overall markets. you look at some of the sectors. energy and health care, they've been laggards in the last couple of weekis as technology stocks moved to the fore. tyler, back to you have. >> thank you very much. the fed's favorite inflation gauge ticking up in july but still in line with what

economists expected. so what does it mean for the fed's next move? steve liesman has the details. hi, steve. >> good afternoon. yeah, july data looks like it was powered by a series of one-off factors. so the market sees the data more or less in line with the soft landing. spending surge, 0.8%. you had taylor swift companies and amazon prime data. but wage gains were healthy but a runoff in government covid support pushing incomes down or incomes from the government down. that was partly responsible for a fall in the savings rate, 3.5%. headline and core inflation was around expectations. the measure watched closely by powell, that jumped a half a

pint. but that's explained by a big jump in the financial management fees. several economists boosted their gdp outlook for the third quarter as a result of these numbers, but a lot of these factors, from the spending to income to inflation are expected to ease off in the coming months. taylor swift isn't touring in august. the fed's fund market trades with a 12% probability. overnight, the current funds rate was called appropriately restrike restrictive. tileer? >> steve, thank you very much. stick around, as we are joined by the head of global economic research and chief economist at jpmorgan chase. good to have you with us. as steve mentioned, the word in

the air these days is soft landing. what does a soft landing mean to you, and what are the odds we have one? >> so a soft landing to me means that the fed, after having tightened here, can engineer an expansion, which would last, i think at least two, three years down the road. i think the chances for that have improved. i think we have clearly shown the resilience in the economy. this is not an economy where we are debating whether it's moving towards a recession right now. i think we have also taken out the risk that inflation will stay in a very elevated zone. but i'm still somewhat skeptical we can get inflation all the way down and the fed will be able to take its feet off the brakes. so the risks to the economy, as we hook forward not for the next three months but the next 12 to 18 months remain relatively elevated. >> let's talk a little bit about jobs, because that's going to be the number we will be focused on tomorrow. it looks like some of the jobless claims numbers were in

line with expectations, nothing alarming there. what do you expect on payrolls tomorrow. and is the job market showing some, if any signs of slowing up just a bit? >> so i think we should step back here and recognize the job market was booming last year. we had a number of things that were normalizing providing that, and we're slowing. we're not going to have 300,000, 400,000 jobs growth a month. but businesses are still expanding, i think settling somewhere in the 150,000 to 2000,000 range is a reasonable forecast. we believe that tomorrow's number is going to be lower than that. which are looking for 125,000 gain, because we think there's going to be a bigger impact of the striking workers, particularly the hollywood strikes that most people expect.

but i would like through that, there's a lot of things to look through in the number. the payroll number will be somewhat distorted to the downside tomorrow. >> steve, a comment? >> yeah. i had a question, i just want to throw this out. i'm a big fan of bruce at jpmorgan for many years now. here's the thing. bruce, today, the goods number showed deflation in the pce. then i looked up what the bls is saying about import prices from china. i'll read you a little bit, the price index declined 2.3% for the year ending in july, the largest 12-month drop since november 2009. my question to you, bruce, is the deflation from china already in the numbers? or is there more to come and will this provide an offset to any remaining or residual service inflation in the economy? >> so i think there's plenty more to come, and i think you're

right in pointing owl the role of china as exporting its excess supplies. that's going to continue. we'll have some of that come from the fact that global manufacturing has been weak for almost a year now. one of the things you are seeing in the inflation numbers on finished goods prices. that's not going to go away, but that's not going to be with us for two years, but the next six months. i think the big call on inflation is the interaction of labor markets and service prices where that's going to settle. as you mentioned, there's a lot of different ways to slice that data up. the key thing to watch going forward is the relationship between housing costs and health care costs. health care costs have a lot of reasons to go up at a more rapid pace. i think we're going to settle above 3% when the dust settles. >> how hard sit, gentlemen, how hard is it for there to be deflation or declining prices when, on the other hand, you

have very strong consumer spending? spending that went up, i think it was 0.6 of a percent in the most recent month, highest pace since january perhaps. if people are spending, doesn't that put upward pressure on prices, steve? >> i'll take a quick jump at it. it depends on where it's happening. i wonder to the extent in which the concert industry, for example, was surprised by the robust demand and got away with very, very strong pricing. and that might have pushed up things like lodging or airfare. i was on a plane going to a concert this summer, and half of the plane from new york was going to the concert in san francisco, tyler. all of the plane coming back was on there. i think that might have been a one off thing. industries, i think, tyler, are still right sizing from the pandemic, trying to figure out where the heck consumer demand is and where it's going to go. i don't think we are yet, or as yet in normal times. >> bruce, any thoughts there?

>> yeah, i think right way to look at it, keep in mind what steve is saying about some of the things affecting consumer spending in july that were temporary, we're getting a boost to good spending. good spending was weak as we were running through most of the last year. manufacturing has been weak, china has been weak. the price pressures are boosting spending. what i'm suggesting is that the disinflationary impact will be with us for a while, but won't persist if the economy is still standing as we look into 2024. and we should. extrapolate this weakness too far down the road when thinking about the challenges the fed will face over the next year. >> i'm with you, steve, on the concert point. >> tyler, did you get to any concerts this summer? >> i did not, but my grandfather was from norway. we flew to oslo during the summer, and quite a few people

were going to a springsteen concert in oslo. >> there you go. >> thank you very much. our next guest says better days are ahead for the markets for the next two years, but that's if july's rate hike and whether it needs to mark -- turn out to mark the end of the current rate hike cycle. we are joined by kevin, always good to see you. you think the fed is done raising interest rates? >> i do believe we have reached the end of in rate hike cycle. that's the good news. what tells me that is with 125 basis points in rate hikes that have taken place over the last year and a half, we haven't begun to see the full damage on the u.s. economy from those rate hikes. but we're now starting to see it trickle through into jobs data and consumer data. remember, 70% of our economy comes from consumer spending. >> consumer spending is strong.

>> but now we have reached $1 trillion in credit card date. credit card interest rates are over 24% in our country. if the consumer shifts to servicing that outstanding credit card debt opposed to spending, that will slow the economy further, causing the fed to pause. that's the good news. the bad news, those expecting any rate cuts are going to have to wait until the second quarter of next year. when the rate cuts occur, guess what? then better days are ahead when rates and yields are lower, inflation is lower and the economy starts to improve. >> you certainly got a lot -- i take your point on debt. i wonder how responsive consumers are to rising interest rates. because it doesn't seem to stop them. you look on your card and says if i pay only the minimum for this, it will take me 22 years to pay it off, and i will have

paid $11,000, a lot more than the $6,000 balance. but whatever. there's a lot of debt coming due over the next -- it's federal debt, it's commercial property debt. and you have student debt repayments beginning tomorrow. >> and the federal reserve realized all of that. we just saw the u.s. credit rating get downgraded because of concerns about our rising interest rates and ability to service that debt. >> so we're talking about some ominous things on the debt side of the ledger, but on the growth side of the ledger, it seems like you feel as interest rates either stay where they are or maybe flutter down by middle of next year, that puts a good shine on equities. >> absolutely. for all those retail investors watching the show right now that believe they missed out on a

bull maverket, it will take off next year when yields come down. >> give me some names that you are looking at or sectors that could benefit under the environment. >> the three sectors we see leading the u.s. economy once rates decline are technology, health care, and consumer discretionary, including e-commerce, such as amazon, which has cut back on smenlding this year, due to all the spending they put in place last year around distribution and their cloud services. and americans will continue to spend. on the technology side, broadcom. yes, that semiconductor ai play, pays a dividend of 2.1%. we'll hear more good news from them. and then health care, i think the health care story, we saw the biden administration announce drug price negotiations, the potential for further price controls. that's to the benefit of smaller cap biotech companies who will

likely be acquired by the large cap pharmaceutical companies. >> so they're going to go for smaller cap companies like, name one. >> xelixis. they focus on oncology, about a $7 billion target cap. >> you're looking for m&a as these large pharma companies will be subject to price negotiation, their revenue declined as a result of that and they will try to buy companies that make drugs that aren't covered by that. >> that is the thesis. they are facing two head winds right now. one, price controls. two, a lot of the other drugs are being subject to generic pricing? where will they turn? th he inflated stock prices, a lot of cash sitting on the balance sheet. they will look to acquire these

innovative drugs. >> somehow i never worry about the pharmaceutical companies. am i wrong? >> the larger cap ones that pay dividends and continue to reinvest in their companies, you shouldn't be worried about them. but i think the growth potential is in the smaller cap biotech. >> i look at eli lilly. when the price was cut back to $35 per month, it looked like bad news. but they come out with other drugs that take their place and then some. >> but in many cases, tyler, those drugs, they are acquiring them from other pipelines. so they're going to look at areas such as gene splicing, antibody treatments, all those technologies that are on the way right now and providing new health care solutions. those large cap pharmaceutical

companies are going to continue to need to do that to be able to build on their revenues. >> kevin, thank you for coming. for more investment ideas, dune in for a back-to-school edition of professor jim cramer, "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m. eastern. do not be late for class. and dick's disasterous earnings report. but today, shares are up 12%. the company raised its forecast. the ceo joins us next to break down the quarter. plus, recruiter sentiment down to a new all-time low. we'll examine what's driving the decline and identify the industries most and least in demand, when "the exchange" returns after this.

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and once-in-a-lifetime. welcome back to "the exchange." it's been a rough month for some retailers after reporting disappointing results. nordstrom, macy's, all down more than 26% since august 1. dollar general, having its worst month in a decade, after today's 12% drop on earnings. and dick's sporting goods might

only be down 12% this month, but it posted its worst day ever last week after slashing outlook. shares of academy sports and outdoors bucking that trend, climbing 12% after beating on second quarter earnings and raising guidance for the year. joining me now with a smile on his face to talk about those results is ceo steve lawrence. there he is, he's a happy man. why shouldn't he be? nice numbers for you. congratulations. how did you do it? >> well, you know, it was a challenging quarter from the top line perspective. i think that's well documented. we actually beat our margin from last year by 30 basis points. >> how did you do that? >> i would chalk it up to inventory control. we had strong inventory disciplines, and you know this about retail, if you let your inventory get out of control --

[ inaudible ] >> so that's one part of it, and one part of invenn toir control is controlling shrink. where is that with you guys? >> organized consumer crime is a real deal for the industry, but it hits you in terms of trying to protect the assets. you miss some sales because you don't own goods that you think you do. so we've been thoughtful of updating our accounts, making sure we have the inventory there and protecting our assets. >> i don't want to spend a bunch of time on shrink, but tell me of -- it includes a lot of different things. it can be damaged merchandise, missing merchandise or stolen merchandise. for you, what percentage is which there?

how much is theft, how much do you estimate is damage, how much do you estimate is accounting or just sort of loss? >> typical belief is that it's about a third, a third, a third. it doesn't all come from one place. so we put in place controls as much as we can. putting high shrink merchandise in locations so there's somebody around. but not trying to hurt customer shopping experience. we don't want our customers to come into museums. so we have better controls in place, and the defective piece, we're being smarter how we look at the merchandise, and make sure it's not something that was cosmetic in nature and that we can fix and solve. so it's been a multieffort. >> we just showed a map of where your foot print is, mostly in the southeast and mid south.

why not expand geographically? can we expect that? >> we are. we just did a long-range plan we announced a couple months ago. we are in 18 states, our goal is to open up about 120 to 140 stores, and we want to be nationwide. we think we have a great model. we expect that's something that is transportable. >> you began your comment on second quarter earnings by saying we continue to move through a challenging economic environment. what's challenging about it? it feels like the economy is doing pretty good. what's the challenge? >> i think the consumer is under pressure. inflation is real. household credit card debt is up. so that's making them a little more judicious when they spend. but we have seen them shop during those key moments like a

mother's day or back-to-school. and then they retreat in the lulls in between. so we have seen that behavior play out over the last 12 months. so we planned and are working around that, making sure when they do decide to shop, we have great products and great prices. >> the hot stuff really goes. my son has been trying to find a certain kind of nike football cleat and can't find it anywhere. i'll have him go to academy.com to find it. or a baseball bat, can't find it. let's talk about your deal with fanatics, what does that hold for you in terms of revenue enhasment? >> if you think about it being in 18 states, we do a big license team business. it tends to be centered on the categories and teams that are the local markets. i grew up in minnesota, i'm a vikings fan for football. we don't currently sell vikings pr products on our site.

so this is opening up to have this in our marketplace. that will be a big one for us down the road. >> steve lawrence, appreciate your time today. >> thank you. >> keep wearing that smile. still ahead, could spak be back? a spare of names going public. we'll search for the signs that the world of spacs could be mounting a comeback. and take a look at the dow. salesforce leading the way. cisco hitting another 52-week high today. and look at 3-m there, up again. we'll be right back.

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welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. markets right now, you see the dow is down ever so slightly, and small gains there for the s&p 500 and nasdaq. despite a recent comeback, the averages remain on track to end august lower. they've got about two hours left to figure it out. the s&p 500 and nasdaq on track to snap their five-month win streaks. nasdaq set to post its worst month since december of last year. in terms of sectors, utilities the biggest laggard this month, down 6%. energy, the only sector set to end the month firmly higher, up about 1%. there you see the diver intelligence. it's not all bad news out there, no, sir. crowdstrike leading the nasdaq 100, hitting the highest level since november after posting better than expected results and raising the full-year forecast. with more on those results, head on over to cnbc.com. we're going to head on over to pippa stevens for an update.

one of the proud boy leaders, joe bigs, sentenced to 17 years this prison this afternoon. he was found guilty of seditious conspiracy during the january 6th attack on the u.s. capitol. the prosecution had asked for 33 years. oprah winfrey and wayne "the rock" johnson committed to make direct payments to people on maui. the people's fund will give $1200 monthly payments to those whose homes burned down in the wildfires. the two stars pulled together $10 million for the fund and are asking for donations to extend the length of the support. and police pulled over a car reported to have a cow inside. but the call turned out to be bull. howdy duty, a full-sized bull, was riding shotgun with the passenger side roof removed.

it is a main attraction in parades throughout the state. police asked the driver to keep mooving. >> that's pretty good. that is a winner right there. pippa, thanks. coming up, today's inflation numbers may have matched expectations, but what about tomorrow's jobs report? we get a look at the industries in demand with recruiter.com's ceo. and let's get some show and tell where we show you a chart and tell the story. shares of cummings down 12% since hitting a 52-week high on august 1. the freight market here and around the world, here's what the ceo told "squawk on the street" this morning about the state of the business. >> so we have seen continued strength in the market, even with inflation and some of those softening indicators. we are projecting we will see

some softening in the heavy duty market in the u.s. the after market is softening for usand , we think we will see some softening in the second half of the year. ch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is? myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. (hero fan) this plan is amazing! (josh allen) another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. (fan #1) that was josh allen. (fan #2) mmhm. (vo) football season is here. get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. a $449 value. plus, get a free samsung galaxy z flip5. only on verizon.

all right, folks. welcome back to "the exchange." it's time to talk jobs. this morning, jobless claims came in lower than expected, marking a third straight week of declines. that's on top of yesterday's adp report telling us job growth is slowing just a bit. what will the government's official read of the overall labor market tell us tomorrow around what's driving the data underneath the surface? joining us now is evan sohn, ceo of recruiting.com and joins us by phone. welcome. i'm going to get to all those things on jobs number, but the thing that leapt out to me is recruiter sent miment witnesses aban all-time low of 2.7 out of 5. what does that low mean and what does it portend? >> well, first of all, thank you for having me on your show.

it's for the fourth month in a row, the recruiter sentiment is going down. we're seeing in the recruiter index only 5% of the recruiters were working, so 100% of the jobs being new jobs opposed to back fill jobs. so it's a difficult time to be a recruiter. there's just less demand for candidates today. now, at the same time, it's just a very tight labor market. but you have to remember, tyler, when companies use recruiters, it's usually for the knowledge workers, or very, very large volume jobs. and recruiter sentiment is down. again, a year ago, we were at 3.6 out of 5. so a year ago, very, very high marks. a year later, 2.7. again, as you said, four months in a row. >> can we assume then, because you say recruiters are mostly involved in recruiting folks for knowledge sector jobs, that

those jobs are in less demand than they formally were, and that non-knowledge sector jobs, like retail or service oriented jobs in the restaurant and food service industry, hotels, maybe even non-skill jobs in health care, that those are the ones that are in demand? >> yeah, you're absolutely correct. we did a recent study with our partners and we looked at 160,000 knowledge workers who lost their job from layoffs over the last nine months. and only 35% of these folks were still unemployed. so clearly the engineers are fairing well, but it was the marketing and sales jobs hit the hardest. >> jobless claims, we're just showing the number there, down 4,000, to 228,000. on the other hand, i think a lot

of people expect that payroll grow is going to slow marketedly when we get the numbers tomorrow, something between 125,000 and maybe 175,000 jobs added across the economy. is the job market slowing, and if it is, is it slowing to such a degree that it may stall the fed from raising interest rates again? >> well, we agree that it is slowing. here's another interesting statistic from the recruiter index. 60% of the recruiters said the salaries stayed the same and 20% said they decreased. so 80% without seeing salary increase. i know the fed was careful watching the salary levels of these workers, and that they're demanding. part of the whole rate hike was to slow that salary level down. so, again, we want to see a healthy job market. a lot of recruiter high

sentiment, lot of high movement. but as you saw from the report, it's all down. it's still higher than prepandemic levels, but only by a smidge. >> strongest job sector? >> health care. >> weakest is? >> probably manufacturing. i have to look at the chart. the weakest we're seeing really is architecture and engineering. >> evan, thank you very much for your up-to-date report and analysis. evan sohn, chairman of recruiter.com. coming up, a twist on a story we may have heard before. a tale of two spacs. we'll look at the controversial method of taking companies to market and the fallout for investors as a new pair of public debuts goes in opposite directions. hexcng wl r. "t ehae"ilbeight back. i was diagnosed with afib. the first inkling that something was wrong was i started to notice

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spacs might now be -- i jumped the gun there. spacs may be making a comeback with the mortgage lender better and vinfast, both debuting this month. but after most of the ones that debuted in 2021 cratered, some investors are asking why? that's the focus of today's check tech. why are spacs back? >> so a few things to know here. now, as a listing vehicle, spacs do remain as volatile as ever. look at better.com, it's 90% plus drop on its debut. and then vinfast, it doesn't make any more sense than it did a few years ago. some of the spacs that did come to market a few years ago may be getting a second life from the investors that see opportunity in the wreckage. i sat down with a lead banker,

now running an investment firm. he sees what he calls valuation arbitrage in the space. he picked up space in spacs from a few years ago during the rush, and dave, when it began trading on the nasdaq, it had a market cap of about $3 billion, today, the market cap is less than $100 million. khan says when he looked through his financials, he saw a company with a better profile, but way cheaper in the public markets. >> the company has 2 million customers. that's a $250 million revenue. and market cap satu$85 million. i think we're finding great value in the public market. >> so that's his arbitrage. he says that he's found that in open door and grab. the value, though, is in part. because spacs as an asset class

has been such terrible performers over the last few years. they've been so beaten down, but they look more like a series a company than a mature company that went public. >> let me ask a couple of questions, one of which will be inflected with a bitter opinion. a spac is basically a quick way for a company to go public, right? isn't that the whole point of a spac? >> the whole point of a spac is, yes, that's correct, to go quickly, but also for retailer investors to get more upside. that is the whole idea. that they can go public earlier in their lifetime, the best growth days are supposed to be ahead of them. so they don't have enough financial history to present to investors, so they make financial projections. a lot of them turned out not to be true. what imram khan says they're not bad investments, if you use a

spac to get funding and become public and are able to be traded, then it's useful, right? because there's these sponsors that can act as anchor investors. >> it seems like all that upside turns around and gets smacked in the backside. the retail investors, right? this benefits the financial engineers, benefits the financial engineers. here we go again, and that the retail investor gets the short end. >> i mean, with so many financial products, the so-called smart money can take advantage. >> damn right. >> i mean, it's kind of unbelievable. i know what's been making the rounds here in san francisco, he brought a number of spacs public that have done terrible. he sold out of them after selling them to retail investors. >> of course he did.

>> and he has been very vocal on twitter or x and saying, you know what? it's your fault, you should have got out when i did. he's remained defiant. >> diedra, thank you very much. thanks for indulging me, as always. there's still time to sign up for this event on september 28. you can register by scanning the qr code on the screen or going to cnbc.com. you'll get a chance to pull out your phone and take a picture and go and register. coming up, what do semis, spandex and cyber collusions have in common? they will all play a part in our next earnings exchange. >> we will preview results from broadcom, lull u and pa pager d next. and here is a look at the board. there you go.

"the exchange" is back after this.

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all right. everybody, welcome back to "the exchange." there are still big names yet to report earnings. if you can believe it. vm ware, broadcom, lululemon and pagerduty after the bell today. they're the focus of today's earnings exchange. for that, we are joined by nancy t tangler, friend and chief investment officer of laffer tangler investments. good to have you with us. let's kick off with broadcom and vm ware. broadcom having a strong year with help from the hype. the proposed $61 billion deal has driven vm ware's share price higher, especially after the european commission green lit the deal in july. the software, cloud and a.i. demand are focus of both companies into the print. investors will listen for updates on the deal which is projected to close in october. let's talk about that deal.

are you buying either name, nancy? >> yeah, tyler, we actually acquired broadcom after the computer associates deal. everyone hated the deal. the stock sold off. we checked in. the name is thelargest holding across our equity strategies in our best portfolio. we're going to play it with broadcom. what we're watching for is, you know, is the company -- they are going to deliver the slowest level of sales since pre-pandemic. so the question is, how slow, and are you paying for that? i think on a relative price-to-sales ratio basis, the stock is pretty attractive. we're not too worried about that. this will be the ninth quarter if they deliver it that they will have had an upside surprise. so the last eight quarters. >> you said broadcom is the

largest holding in your portfolio of 12 best ideas, did i hear that kraecorrectly? >> yes. >> thanks. lululemon up 18%. the company's current guidance is conservative as its higher income consumer and better invein inve inventory management should be better amid the downturn. you like it? >> we do because of the loyal customer, because they're well healed. they'll have less impact from student loan repayments restarting. what befuddled me, and i'll be listening for this, is the chinese demand is expected to be pretty strong. we haven't heard that from a lot of consumer discretionary companies. if they can deliver that, that's important. lastly, you know, last part of the margins approved, shipping costs went down. we've seen other companies say that shipping costs have kind of lift upward.

we don't think it is a permanent problem. we'll be watching that, as well. but we own it. weakness we'd add to it. >> fantastic. lastly, we have pagerduty, another enterprise software name. this having a down year after soft guidance last print. rbc capital markets saying there is upside potential in cloud and a.i. but significant downside risk if clients aren't willing to pay out for software. you're not a fan, nancy, but you do see some potential. where? >> yeah, well, i think they generated solid revenue growth and free cash flow growth. the generative a.i. news is good because it cuts cost on their run book product by 30%. what is concerning is it is thinly traded and covered. last quarter, they actually did get lower guidance but they actually surprised to the yupsie and sold off 17%. they've exceeded estimate 100% of the time in the last two years, but ask stock has been nothing since the ipo. there's better places to be, tyler. >> all right. we began this hour, nancy, talking about the economy, the

potential for a, quote, soft landing. i'd like to get your views on that and whether you think the job market is slowing or slowing sufficiently to stay the fed's hand? >> yes, i do think it is slowing. i do think it may be sufficient, and that's what you're seeing in the market. we started to see a softness in the job market a couple weeks ago, then we also saw new hire salaries coming down. even though the jolts number was in the $8.5 million range, 8. million, and that's still pretty strong, we think the trend is moving in the right direction from the fed's perspective. so i think a soft landing is still possible. you know, there has been talk about a rolling recession. if you look at the data, it's easy to be convinced that we might be just rolling through this recession and we'll come out the other side in decent shape. >> what a soft landing suggests to me is a slowdown where unemployment, unemployment

doesn't rise much and where gdp growth may be below trend but isn't negative. what is a soft landing feeling like to you, quickly? >> that. then also that company earnings are still positive, and i think we are moving in that direction. margins, they've been able to manage margins. so if we can get that from wall street and from corporate america, then i think stocks can continue to muddle along in an upward trend. so, therefore, i think you want to be alonglong the equity mark >> nancy, we appreciate it, appreciate your time. don't miss our exclusive interview with pagerduty ceo, jennifer tejada, tomorrow on "the exchange." discussing earnings, a.i. and more. nancy, we thank you and look forward to seeing jennifer tomorrow. that does it for "the exchange." on "power lunch," alex waxman says it is not just the developers benefitting from

private lending and commercial real estate. we'll hear from him in his first ever tv interview. don't get nervous. it's easy. this tv is not all that hard. contessa is ttgeing ready. i'll join her on the other side of the break.

♪ welcome, everybody, to "pour l power lunch." with contessa brewer, i'm tyler madsen. glad you could join us. something the markets will be continuing to watch, earnings good enough. will tomorrow's jobs report be just right to keep the rally going? move over, barbenheimer. at taylor swift movie coming ou in october as a concert flick. friday the 13th, the same day as the new "exorcist." be exor-swift will another jolt for the box office? >> the mashup is happening with the movies, not just couples now.