lawsuits, and you still have zero buys from the sell side on this stock. you will be able to focus on fundamentals, and the stock is cheap. >> that does it for "halftime" as the markets are just marginally mixed with the nasdaq down so slightly. "the exchange" starts right now. ♪ ♪ courtney, thank you very much. welcome, everybody. i'm tyler mathisen, in for kelly evans today. another goldilocks jobs report initially sending stocks higher, but those gains have faded. the s&p and the nasdaq are flat-ish. so is the bad news good news narrative too good to be true? one guest says yes, there is a recession coming. investors had better get ready for it. home prices hitting an all-time high in july. but there are signs that this may finally be the top.

we've got the latest and what you need to know if you are looking to buy or sell a house any time soon. a special three buys and a bail fed playbook edition, including one name gina sanchez says is a buy no matter what the fed does. but we begin with the markets. bob, the only index that i see higher right now is the russell 2,000, by 1 toyota 25%. -- 1.25%. >> that's had a great week with the nasdaq. we did have a great jobs report, unemployment ticking up a little bit, not too much. wage growth subdued. so it was a good report. but he's right, folks. the top trend, the high trend of the day is within a minute or two of the open of all three of the major indices, it's been weaker since then, but the nasdaq has had a great week, up about 3%, s&p up 2.5%. so it's been a terrific week

overall. i just want to show you some of the sectors. this is really about certain groups that are doing much better. energy is on fire. six days in a row, oil is at $86, that keeps going up. materials are doing well. bank stocks are showing somewhat. communication -- sorry, consumer discretionary, tesla is a little weak. by and large, not that bad. consumer staples, just awful again, just day after day, with a terrible look in the consumer staple sectors. the leadership group, it's commodities. free port, any oil stocks, devon, halliburton, all pushing forward here. the laggards, a little in the tech group. broadcom, tesla has had a great week. amazon and alphabet, weak a little bit. media, julia has been talking about this tiff between disney

and charter all day. that's a new low for disney. warner, paramount and our parent comcast, all terrible performers today. speaking of terrible. consumer staples, how many days in a row are we going down on these stocks? these are essentially new lows. general mills new low every single day this month practically. that's rather shocking to see these big names just sort of down every single day here. so the story about september is it's going to be threading the goldilocks needle. remember, goldilocks is just in the middle. so you can fail if it's too strong or too weak. so far, goldilocks has been winning, but people keep messaging, boy, it's been a last september. the last few years, awful september. 2022, down 9%. 2021, down 4.7%. so the early history is dad and september is traditionally the weakest month of the year.

but if we can thread that goldilocks needle, maybe we can buck those trends. >> thank you, bob. third straight month where less than 200,000 jobs were added. so is this exactly what the fed was looking for? steve liesman, closer look at the numbers. it looks like in this report, there was a little bit of something for everybody. >> yeah. i tend to think if you put it together with the inflation report, this is a jobs number that seemed to be composed by the doves, softer but not too soft, hitting all the right notes when it came to the impacts on inflation. putting the june and july revisions down, and it's the seventh month in a row of downward revisions. unemployment rate, 3.8, ticking up. average hourly earnings, also a bit more muted. the higher unemployment rate

came from a massive influx of 700,000 into the workforce. but it remains a half point below february of 2020, so we can still do better. the key to whether this is the beginning of what that concern is out there spoken of by bob is whether those people who came into the workforce are they able to find jobs in come months? here's where those jobs were. private education and health services, 97,000 of those being health care jobs. leisure, hospitality, up 40,000, down where it was. the goods producing section doing well. temporary help, another leading sign out there, down for the seventh straight month. and transportation and warehousing, down 34,000. that is most likely the impact of the yellow trucking bankruptcy showing up. jobs numbers suggesting to some in the market the feds work could be done here. the number of probabilities

falling, 42% before the number. 38% was down as low as 33% before. cleveland fed president saying that 3.8% unemployment rate is still low, but she said she had seen some softening in the job market and inflation. tyler, don't miss our interview we have on tuesday with fed governor chris waller. >> what did the jobs report do to the anticipation about the september meeting? >> it went down even more. so they're taking a pass in september, and i think that makes sense. they have the inflation numbers coming out, in no particular hurry. our next guest says the jobs report tells her the labor markets are behaving exactly as they would if we were headed into a recession early next year. that means there could be discussions within the fed soon about the danger of going too far with rate hikes. she's francis donald, global chief economist. francis, welcome. these numbers, i want you to

make the case for us here, that these numbers taken as a group, add up to a higher probability, or possibility, shall we say, of a recession next year, what are you seeing? >> that's how i see it, tyler. i keep hearing this was a good jobs report, that's why stocks jumped. no, this was a bad enough jobs report it means, and i agree with steve, the fed is done. we can celebrate that. so let me be clear, even though i see a recession ahead, there's still some juice behind some of those risk trades. but look at this jobs report. we have a jump in the unemployment rate, the jump in the underemployment rate, temporary jobs are falling and 110,000 fewer jobs than we believed. we've had a downward revision every single month this entire year. this is a labor market that's softening, consistent with a recession early in 2024. this is what happens, as you

begin to see this two years later in jobs. there's this view it's a gentle softening and will stabilize, but economies have momentum, and it's very difficult to slow this train once we get to that level. we're not there yet, but we will probably get to a location that looks a lot like a recession. >> you mentioned a gentle s softening. i'm going to have a gentle pushback, and it would be this. the unemployment rate did go up to 3.8%, but how much of that rise in the unemployment rate might be attributable to the fact that labor force participation went up, there were more people in the market looking for jobs and not just immediately able to find them. >> and here's the good news, the fed wants to see this. we have had two tight of a labor market. but it also means that labor power is going to diminish, because these people entered the job market looking for jobs, and they didn't find them as quickly as they would have in the past. so more people wanting jobs is

good, but only if they get them. people wanting jobs and not having them is not great for the economy. >> steve, reaction? >> i can see how if you had a preexisting belief in a recession before this number came out, this could fit in with your idea here. that's fine. i just wouldn't jump on the e unemployment -- this is just something that happens, tyler. the job market was so hot before, that figuratively, people would be packing their boxes with their stuff from their old job, and never unpack the box, just bring that box to the new job. we were not seeing any of the normal churn that we saw in the job market, wherepeople would go, lose job, spend a little bit of time unemployed and then find job. it was skipping that middle step there. so you would expect there to be situations like we have had in this month, where people would -- you have have this influx in the workforce.

not everybody would find work. it could be this is the beginning. there has always been the danger in the soft landing that you pass through the comfortable part and then you get to the tougher part and you keep going down. but you've got to do this part first, and i just don't think that once you are in that part is the time to ring the alarm bell. because there is still some things that the economy has going for it. >> in francis' defense, i don't mean to speak for you, but she didn't really see the jump in unemployment rate was the tell here. she said when you take that along with downward revisions for month after month after month -- >> i take her point. just very quickly, francis. >> sure. >> i take your point that the revisions are a sign of the trend, but if you look at the revisions where they were too, they're still not bad numbers. >> absolutely. this is -- even numbers within

numbers should not be taken out of context. but we are talking about one of the most aggressive rate hikes in history. senior loan surveys telling us credit is contracting by some of the most in history. we're talking about a housing market that has completely frozen outside of new home sales. almost every single leading i would kay for tells us that things are going to get worse. is it two quarters of negative gdp? maybe not. maybe manufacturing recovers, but i can't look at a job report and say it's inconsistent with the idea of a material slowdown. >> can i see your housing market and raise you consumer spending of 0.7%, and a consumer that won't quit, are you going to call me on this or raise me again? >> i'm not, steve. i'm just going to show you what the leading indicator and a lagging indicator, and we'll see that housing has to be near the beginning and the -- >> all right, i'm going to call

your leading indicators and tell you they have been negative for a very long time, and i've been looking at a bunch of recession probability indicators, and none of them have been doing good at allin terms of telling us there will be a recession. >> that's right. you're still looking at a material slowdown. for most investors, whether it's two quarters of negative gdp or just a crummy economy doesn't make a material difference. makes a nice headline, but an asset manager, i know i have a little bit of time, and then i have to position for a more difficult economic environment. it all boils down to how do i want to be positioned? i have to be very aware of the risks ahead. >> that was a lively discussion. we appreciate your time today, francis. >> before you go, steve, you have some news on the banks. >> so the feds and regulators do

this very often. they have set out some guidance to the banks out there about treating borrowers in the face of the recent hurricane, as well as the issue that happened in maui, as well. they say go easy on the borrowers, and we as the regulators will not frown upon your concessions or other treatment of those borrowers in the face of these natural disasters. >> steve, stay with us. ai has powered the market, and especially the nasdaq so far this year. while my next guest says the biggest returns may be in the rear-view mirror for 2023, you can still find value in ai if you look in three categories in particular. joining us now is his picks is allen boomer, managing partner at momentum advisers. allen, welcome. good to have you with us. if we could pick up on the conversation we just had, i'm sure you were able to hear some of it. you say that every recession since world war ii, started with the unemployment rate rising by

at least a half percent. it rose by 0.3%, but still unemployment rate is below its long-term average, and you say you're not going to worry until the rate gets above 4%. it could do that in a month. >> yeah, absolutely. thanks for having me. you know, typically, you see a big increase in unemployment, a half percent is kind of like the tipping point. that's when you start to see the economy moving in the other direction. the caveat, though, is that we're at a really, really low level of unemployment. like typically, you see kind of 6% going up to 7%. or you see 7% going up to 8%. here, we're at a level that has been almost unprecedented in terms of how low the up employment rate is. i looked at the jobs report today. i think it was a pretty good report. the market was expecting 170,000 jobs added. we added 187,000. also, the labor force

participation rate is one of the highest that we have had since the pandemic. so i think this was a good jobs report. i am concerned that the unemployment rate is starting to tick higher as we have added more workers to the market. >> alan, let's move towards market conversation and what you see over let's say the next six months. we pointed out that september is traditionally, or at least certainly in the past couple of years, has not been a particularly favorable month for equities. what do you see over the next six months and where are the targets of opportunity? >> great question. i think that ai is a really big secular theme, that will be fuelled to the market for the next years to come. a lot of it has already happened in terms of the optimism around ai, and some of that optimism is right fly placed. some of it is a little overly

enthu enthusiastic. video is up 200% this year. i just think there's a lot of other companies that the market is overlooking, that will also begin to implement ai in a meaningful way that could be transformative to their earnings ability. in particular, you've got them up on the screen, so you have the enabler, that's like round one. that's nvidia. the hyperscalers, you are starting to see excitement around these companies. but other companies like salesforce and adobe that really have a powerful opportunity to incorporate generative ai into their business models. >> how do they do that? what will it look like, allan? >> sure. you have to go company by company. but if you have a company like salesforce, which alreadyhas just tremendous amounts of data, and on the other end, you've got sales people who are looking to better find who to target. i met recently with a

salesperson who said that she's using ai to figure out who to call at essecompanies and how t reach them, who is the specific pr person i need to find, and if i can incorporate ai to help me figure out in a more pin pointed way who to call, and to have all that data tracked in a much better way, or if i've got ai predicting for me, i come into work and it will tell me what i should be doing today, that is going to be powerful for salesforce. >> it's going to do away with bosses. >> listen, there are some concerns about a lot of parenting, doctors. a lot of things that you could go to ai for, for sure. >> take the boss out of the equation and let the ai tell you what you need to do. i note that you are favorably inclined towards meta platforms. why? >> yeah, so meta, for one, you have to think about a company

that the moment they started talking about the metaverse, at first, you know, the market was excited about this new thing. and then the market soured on the metaverse and then they pivot to talk about ai. you see meta has taken off a ton. i just think this is a really important company that i think has the ability to generate significantly more earnings than what it's generating today. even though it's up a ton, it's still trading at an attractive valuation. i think that they're positioned to leverage ai, as well. >> allan boomer, thank you very much for joining us. >> thanks for having me. for more investment ideas, tune in to a special back-to-school special of "mad money" with jim cramer tonight. the classroom will begin precisely at 6:00 p.m., and not a second later. join jim on "mad money." coming up, pager duty on pace for its worst day sense

june. what's driving the decline? we'll dig into the numb wers the ceo, next. plus, the home builders etf is closing in on a new 52-week high. what it will take to turn things around. we'll look at the numbers driving the narrative when "the exchange" returns after this. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received.

at&t business. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

bridgett is here. she has no clue that i'm here. she has no clue who's in the helmet. are you ready? -i'm ready! alright. xfinity rewards creates experiences big and small, and once-in-a-lifetime. nice footwork. man, you're lucky, watching live sports never used to be this easy. now you can stream all your games like it's nothing. yes! [ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back to "the exchange," everybody. shares of the cloud computing brand pagerduty, taking a hit, down hm 7%, despite posting second quarter results that beat on the top and bottom lines. the company reported revenue up 19% in the second quarter. the expected total revenue to grow up to 15% next quarter. still, pagerduty saw a slight drop in total paid customers and billing weaker for the third quarter. let's go to the ceo jennifer tejada who joins us on the phone. >> thanks for having me. >> annual recurring revenue up 17%. the bottom line was favorable, as well. but in the reports i'm reading

this morning, what the nit nitpickers seem to be picking at is billings, and the outlook for them. talk us through the billings issue that people seem to be fixated on. >> sure. well, i'll start with, we did have a solid quarter. we executed very well at a macro environment that largely remained the same from q1 to q2. in particular, our enterprise segment was very resilient was retention and growth were above the company average. what we are seeing in the market is that large enterprise customers simply can't afford the cost and risk of a material operational failure, whether that's driven by technology or cybersecurity threat or any other kind of operational failures. we still see a tremendous amount of engagement there. the best indicator of our growth is that number we gave you,

which is growing at 17%. billings is a little bit harder from an indicator perspective, because the customers can co-term during the year, which makes the numbers fluctuate meaningfully through the quarter. so we would suggest that number is a better guide for the future growth. and to remind investors and the community that pagerduty continues to execute consistently. we drove tremendous operating margin this quarter, 1700 basis points, year over year at 13% operating margin. and our large customer deals execution also improved in the quarter with our customer spending over 100-k. and we talked about strategic deals getting done, where we are working with customers at the senior level, cpos and cios to help them improve their operations across the board.

we talked about semiconductor supplier that saw cost savings by deploying pagerduty in a matter of weeks. so i think the long-term tailwinds for the business remain. we're executing well in a challenging macro environment. we continue to see our strategic focus, enterprise customers demonstrating with their interest and their investment that pagerduty is their choice for real-time operations. >> i don't want to bog down on that term you mentioned, as we were talking about the billings issue. you said that some of your customers are able to co-term. i don't know what that means. would you explain. >> yeah. so we really try and operate in a way that serves our customers and the flexibilities they need.

so they're able to bad users throughout the period of a contracting agent. they do not have to wait until a renewal to expand their relationship with us. and that means that the billings numbers can move around in the quarter. >> are you concerned at all that total pay customers, i'm reading here, are basically flat year-to-year? >> i'm confident in our ability to continue to improve our execution in the current environment, and our guidance contemplates the macro environment potentially worsening. and if it improves, that would be an upside for our business. but i would continue to point you and our listeners and viewers to the -- like i said, the consistent execution, the durable growth that we have

demonstrated and improving sustainable profitability. this is a business that produced 86% growth margin in the last quarter. >> so let's leave our viewers with a kind of thumbnail, very quick on what the guidance is. you seem to suggest that it is conservative, leaving room for the possibility of a broader economic slowdown or some sort of lowdown that would affect your business. so let's go through the numbers that you would want to leave the viewers with. >> so we are confident in our ability to deliver the guidance that we have shared. that guidance is 426 to $430 million in revenue for the full year. our etf guidance for third quarter is between 13 and 14 cents, and operating margins

between 8% and 9%. so i think overall, very comfortable with that guidance. and confident in our ability to continue to improve our execution, even in a macro environment. and encouraged by the number of large, strategic deals going into q3. >> jennifer, thank you very much for your candor today. we appreciate it. >> my pleasure, nuthank you. coming up, federal student loans begin accruing interest today, again. and wall street expecting retail to take a multibillion dollar hit to the bottom line. courtney reagan has the companies that stand to lose the most. and here is a look at the dow map. wag walgreen's, down 7%, following the sudden departure of the ceo after a little more than two

years at the helm. "the exchange" returns after this. ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines.

welcome back to "the exchange." the markets right now, i think you could just -- let's call them what they are, that is pretty dog gone flat. the dow up 52 points. the s&p 500, for all intents and purposes, unchanged. and the nasdaq composite is down less than 0.2 of 1%. coming up, mortgage rates holding steady just above 7%. but there's another factor that could affect the affordability

in housing. that's next. people are excited about what ai will do for them. we're excited about what ai will do for business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business,

you can build ai to help coders code faster, customer service respond quicker, and hr handle repetitive tasks in less time. let's create ai that transforms business with watsonx. ibm. let's create.

here's why you should switch fo to duckduckgo on all your devie duckduckgo comes with a built-n engine like google, but it's pi and doesn't spy on your searchs and duckduckgo lets you browse like chrome, but it blocks cooi and creepy ads that follow youa from google and other companie. and there's no catch. it's fre. we make money from ads, but they don't follow you aroud join the millions of people taking back their privacy by downloading duckduckgo on all your devices today. welcome back to "the exchange." i'm steve kovach. here is your cnbc news update. a member of the proud boys, who

smashed a capitol window with a police shield he stole from the cops, sentenced to ten years in federal prison today. the only one of the five defendants in the proud boys trial who hasn't been convicted of seditious conspiracy. in addressing the judge, he said he was a changed and humbled man, but as he was led out of the courtroom, he raised a fist and shouted "trump won." another big shakeup in college sports. the atlantic coast conference, or acc, adding stanford, cal, and smu next year. this will help create a pool of revenue to be shared among other acc schools. sources say it will bring in $50 million plus each year. stanford and cal's exit from the big 12 leaves the conference with just two remaining members, oregon state and washington state. and fisker is releasing new

details on its electric vehicle. with the touch of a button, the rear window rolls down, and then the entire door disappears into the body of the car. >> very cool. thank you. turning now to the housing market. we may be in for another hair pin turn. diana joins us with some new numbers. hi, di. >> we just got the latest read on home prices in july. while they did hit another all-time high, there is a potential him at a downturn. prices rose 2.3% in july year over year according to black knight, bigger than the 1% annual gain in june. and august comparison also be even larger, because prices began falling hard last august. but here's the hitch. prices month-to-month weakened, while still gaining, which they usually do this time of the year. you can see here on this chart that the gains fell below their 25-year average after significantly outdoing their

historical averages from february through june. so it's a tsignal that a slowdon may be underway again. why? mortgage rates rose last summer and fall, and then they came down causing home prices to turn higher again. now rates are back over 7% again, hitting 20-year plus highs in august. and you add to that, that while the supply of homes for sale is low, new listings rose in july. some sellers may be trying to cash in on these historically high prices. >> let's bring in the person behind the latest housing data that diana just mentioned. black knight's vp, andy walden. good to have you with us. walk us through some of these numbers that diana just said, but i was particularly struck by the fact that with rates at 7.23%, the average or median priced home went down 20%,

30-year fixed, the price to carry that month-to-month is $2423, 91% higher than just two years prior. when you get those rises, at some point, affordability slams the brakes on the market, doesn't it? >> you're right. that's just principal and interest, before you add over $500 in taxes and insurance and push it closer to $3,000. that's where we stand right now. you're right, affordability, a massive crunch, lowest level since 1984 in terms of just homeowner affordability out there. it seems to be taking some of the steam out of what happened, a hot housing market this spring. >> takes more than 38% of the income to make the payment. you make me weep when you say add 500 a month for taxes. if only that were true where i lived, if only that with you true. diana, do you see this setting

up as the moment where the housing market starts to lose a little steam? >> you know, it's possible. that's what we saw last year. last august when mortgage rates first started to rise and peaked for the first time last october, we saw home sales drop and prices drop precipitously. so the question is, is that going to be the setup for this fall? if possible, it is. i would wonder where do investors stand in all this? i know a lot don't use mortgages. but a lot of the individual investors do. andy, what do you think the fall will look like for an investor, in or out? >> that's a good question. investors have been following the trend of mortgage of the buyers, not quite as much fluctuation as you have seen, but you have seen them pull back just in terms of quantity of sale. i think they're going to be watching prices very closely and future expectations with the rent prices, as well. which have also been cooling off. so if you do see a broad-based

pullback overall, you could see the same for industrials, as well. >> yet today, as you report, 99 of the 100 largest u.s. markets saw seasonally adjusted price gains in july. they may be below the 25-year general average, but 99 out of 100 is close to a perfect score. >> you're right. it has been a very hot spring. and the numbers, if you look at just the face value numbers from july, they're up. they're 99% of markets seeing rise, the price is up 1.7% from where they were last year. so you are still seeing strength. there's just some hims that some of that steam coming out of the market with this tightened affordability. >> diana? >> andy, tyler was just mentioning about rents. we're seeing rents pull back on the apartment side, but not on the single family side. if rents were to start coming back a little bit, do you think that's going to be able to, you

know, keep people in rental homes and not want to buy anymore? where is the rent versus buy equation working out for you? >> yeah, that's always the question, right? which one makes more sense at any point in time? you will continue to see that rent growth rate cool off. it tends to kind of follow along with that annual home price growth rate that's cooled off from where we were in 2021. so the overall growth rates are continuing to cool. the one place that i look at for rentals is the under construction multiunits. you still have a big swath of multifamily properties that are under construction right now, and that could start to weigh on rental prices, as well. that will be interesting to watch. not only towards the tail end of this year, but 2024, as well. >> have a great, long weekend. thank you for being with us today, both of you. still ahead, another pressure point for retailers. student loan payments resume. we will break down the names most at risk, and what investors can expect heading into the holiday season. that is next.

♪ explore endless design possibilities. to find your personal style. endless hardie® siding colors. textures and styles. it's possible. with james hardie™.

welcome back, everybody. student loan payments about to resume, and retailers are bracing for the potential impact there. courtney reagan has a closer look at the potential winners and losers. hey, courtney. >> so today is when student loan payments again begin to accrue interest. it's ironic timing, because many are buying for their own children for their back-to-school needs. around 44 million americans have federal student loans, and 60% of them are 40 years old or younger. that's prime child rearing age. it's estimated the student loan payment resumption will take a $14 billion bite out of consumer spending per month. a survey of 15,000 consumers found 20% have student loans with a payment of $356. they plan to cut spending across

all discretionary categories when payments resume. apparel and footwear getting hit the most. more than a dozen retailers, including macy's, best buy, expressed concern that student loan payment resumption could take away spending from their businesses over the last quarter conference calls. jefferies forecast that amazon, walmart and target will be hardest hit, based on exposure to shoppers with student loan balances. jpmorgan says discretionary apparel and footwear are most at risk, calling out dick's sporting goods, foot locker, gap, nordstrom, nike, and others. >> i don't mean to minimize this at all when you have millions of people with an average monthly payment of $356 that that is -- that money has to not go somewhere else. but that so many retailers might be affected. i wonder when all is said and

done, whether the impact will be as great as some are predicting. we don't know. >> yeah, we don't know. obviously, many of these borrowers did pay these loans and had been paying those loans for a while, presumably, before they got this the last several years. so it's not a new payment. however, we settle into our spending ways, our budgets. so it may just have a psychological impact. that's my concern that all of a sudden now with one more bill. and by the way, groceries cost a lot more than they used to. it just comes at a tricky time of year when retailers are hoping that's when they get those extra discretionary dollars. so i also worry about the psychological impact of the spending. it just feels like maybe now i have less money to spend. but we'll see. >> you follow retail for us. i'm going to ask you a question, it may take you out beyond your range here. but what is the stance of the federal government to work with

people who are saying they just can't make the full $356 payment? >> yeah. so i understand that it's not going to hit your credit if you don't repay these loans right away, when the interest is due next month. but you have this 12-month window to repay them before it hits your credit. but i imagine there are going to be lotsof conversations and further negotiation when it comcome s to get thing program on track like it was before that debt relief set in. >> courtney, thank you very much. a quick programming note. there is still time to sign up for cness's delivering alpha event on september 28. scan the qr code on the screen or go to cnbcevents.com. still ahead, a special three buys and a bail fed playbook edition. this is the name gina sanchez is buying, regardless of what the fed does from here. she h join us next.

and let's get some show and tell where we show you a chart and tell the story. sentinel one hitting its highest level in three months after raising its full-year guidance. more's how the ceo addressed rumors about a potential sale earlier on "squawk on the street." >> we are an undervalued asset. we're a great asset and something that -- [ inaudible ] -- we have a number of financial advisers, but none of that implies we're for sale. rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations. i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses

and more in prospectus at invesco.com. at pnc bank, investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses you can find us in big cities and small towns across the us, where our focus is to always support the people who live and work there. because you call these communities home, and we do too. pnc bank.

wow, you get to watch all your favorite stuff. it's to die for. and it's all right here. streaming was never this easy, you know. this is the way. you really went all out didn't you? um, it's called commitment. could you turn down the volume? here, you can try. get way more into what your into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back. the august jobs report had something for everyone in it, but what does it mean for the fed? we'll break down the different scenarios and names to own and avoid in a special fed playbook edition of three buys and a bail. joining us now is gina sanchez. how are you doing? >> i'm good. >> first scenario, the higher for longer. if the fed holds rates right where they are, you say buy amazon. had a great year thus far despite rates up over 60%.

do you think that can continue? >> well, i think what i'm looking at is that if the fed is indeed done, if the story that they are going go cautiously, if they see evidence of slowdown in the jobs report, then valuations are probably going to stop resetting and we'll be focused on earnings growth. and amazon actually still has very strong earnings growth ahead of it, not just because of the ecommerce story. everybody and quite frankly if you go into a slowdown twhich w still think that we'll have a delayed slowdown, people will want go cheap. amazon is the new walmart. and also they have the cloud play, still the largest cloud player relative to other competitors like microsoft and google. so this is a play that has something for everyone, can it in-to grow its earnings and grow those earnings well and they don't have to worry about their mull c multiple continuing to get

battered.ext is their yoe, that would be an interest rate cut. who would be a favorable pick there? >> in this scenario, this is where the fed is determined to keep, you know, their fight on inflation. we've had a little uptick in core pce. so if we get another interest rate hike, then you get a bigger deeper slowdown and then the fed goes to cut rates. and so this is a really ugly story. so we think that you have to get defensive. the problem is most defensive stocks like constellation brands and stocks like that are very overvalued. we spent two years climbing the wall of worry. and so i say you go smaller cap, something like a jm smuckers. that is much better value than a lot of the other defensive stocks. and in the middle of a recession maybe drinking is fun, but pb and j can also be fun. >> i love the spreads that they have. and here is one that appeals to me because it is just so

pressure suc preciously simple. and that is a stock that does well no matter what the fed does. what is that stock? >> yeah, here we love broadcom. this is a story that no matter if you are fed agnostic, one truth rings true, that interest rates higher than they have been. but you want a good price point. and nvidia is highly valued and broadcom is a much better price point in terms of valuation to get into this play that is not going away. >> all right. and then those are your buys. so we have schmucker, we have -- with a name like schmucker it has to be good. and so get out no matter what, this is a stock that has been beat up like maybe no other over the past year or so, peloton. >> yeah, this is a tough stock.

there is nothing that the fed will do to help them, nothing that the fed can do to hurt them. this is apeloton. they rode the pandemic into great sales. they got big valuations like they were a sasse company and turned out that they were a manufacturing company and the manufacturing costs are really starting to hit them. and so obviously it is down, you think can it go any further. the company has to get bought or they have to, you know, spend money on their sasse and that is money they don't have right now. so this is a challenge. >> who would be a buyer for this company? would it be a nike or -- i don't know who else is out there. a private equity company, i guess. >> that is a good question. whoever is going to take this company over has to look at it. there is a actually a lot of potential that they still have yet to really bring forward.act potential that they still have yet to really bring forward. they focus on the uber cyclist

user, they are not focused on the people who just want to watch netflix. there are so many avenues that they can explore as a company. they should call me, i have a lot of ideas. >> i agree, if they allowed me, i have one of those bikes, if they allowed me to watch whatever i wanted, that would be a very -- or link to my netflix account or whatever, that would be a very interesting play there. let's talk markets more broadly. as we head into september, historically not a primarily pleasant month. what do you expect this month and what do you expect the fed to do in light of the jobs number out this morning? >> that is a good question. we have jobs data out, we also have the core pce which came in. i think that we'll have a very mixed view. and everyone -- it could go either way. the fed feels like a coin flip now. and i would say that as we go kind of into the fall, our playbook and this is a playbook

with lido advisers, is that it will be a choppy month. you want to be prepared to participate on the up side but we're using option strategies to sort of, you know, to sell away some of the up side so that we can protect down side. and i think that that kind of a strategy is the way that you have to go when you just don't know how it will land. >> gina, thanks as always. great to see you. that does it for "the exchange." let's take a look over in the "power lunch" studio where seema mody is getting ready. i'll be with her on the other side of this quick break. tes autonomous vacuums work continuously around the house, but when your team has to work seamlessly around the world... you need more than technology. you need cdw who can help transform your organization with built for performance lenovo thinkpads. pre-configured for management flexibility and equipped with the intel evo platform. responsive collaboration tools give your team effortless connectivity to stay focused wherever they work. fetch. lenovo makes seamless productivity possible.

cdw makes it powerful. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business.

welcome to bo"power lunch." coming up, another jobs number, 187,000 jobs added in the u.s. economy, that is a lot but not too many. the unemployment rate di