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tv   Fast Money  CNBC  September 1, 2023 5:00pm-5:30pm EDT

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russell 2k all putting in their best weekly performances since june. >> when we get further into september, lots of a.i. software announcements i mean, it's going to be nonstop. investors need to be ready for that along with more earnings. >> and got a lot of fed speak next week. beige book, i.m. services. that's going to do it for us. >> fm fm starts now. right now on fast, they say you can't teach an old dog new tricks but no one seems to tell that to dell with shares rocketing to a record with a resurgence in legacy tech names. plus, fueled up. crude prices jumping to seven month highs. oil stocks in rally again. chart master says there's upside ahead for the sector. later, a total embarrassment. that's what one of our investors calls share of walgreens. why this could be the worst investment they've made. this is "fast money". on the desk tonight we have
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steve grasso, guy adami, tim see your and karen. shares of dell jumping 21% just today, soaring past its previous record set way back in january of 2022. it wasn't the only name seeing strength this week. intel jumping 10% since monday making it the best performer in the dow. cisco up 4%. even ibm was higher. now up more than 20% of its lows of the year. is there wisdom we can gain from the performance of the elder statesman of the market? guy, i'm going to start with you. what do you make of the move? >> you say elder statesman and then you say, guy, i'm coming to you. that's okay. valuation matters. a lot of companies figured it out. look at oracle. all-time high, i think. off to the races. ibm, which is the i in the swift
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trade, producer sandy's acronym, that continues to work. you look at their quarter and say, they're starting to figure things out. the red hat acquisition is working. software doing well. valuation is reasonable. i think a lot of people are saying, listen, the road to the upside might be limited. a lot of names under the radar screen have runway. >> these names have a.i. involved to. remember watson? >> if you have watson, that was the original a.i. >> i'm sure ibm is screaming, how about us? >> 1997 champion, watson beat. you remember them from jeopardy. these are names that still have the a.i. kicker but to guy's point, they have a much better valuation, much easier to
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digest. you're not buying nvidia. you're buying ibm or dell, cisco. all names have a much lower valuation and still get the a.i. kicker. >> it is fascinating. karen, what do you make of these names as well? you get more with dell. i understand their computing division wasn't all that either. >> right. i think we've seen -- we saw it with best buy that mab we're talking about the bottoming out of the consumer electronics space, and this is maybe the pc cycle has really bottomed. and so to guy and steve afc point you have a bottoming cycle, a low p.e. in a market where rates are moving generally higher. maybe not today. that's a pretty good place to be. i'm not there unfortunately, but impressive from dell. you saw a few hours. hp up and best buy as well. >> tim, what do you think? dude, do you node a dell in. >> i don't need a dell, dude.
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don't need a watson. cisco is the best of the bunch. not a question to me. cisco is not looking to reinvent themselves. they've already done it. it's a software and security story. it's the best value in mega cap tech, and this is a stock that's probably got the best chart out of all of them. i'm long cisco. we just got numbers. they derisked, they've become less cyclical. it's not about a hardware story, and this is a company that also has exposure not only in the enterprise world where we haven't seen things fall apart, but again, parts of a business that i think are cyclical trends. >> guy, does any of this suggest the market may be broadening out, that maybe we're going to get momentum from the players beyond the magnificent seven in. >> i think the bulls would definitely grab on to that and say you're right, courtney. it's great to see other
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technology names join the party. i get it. the fact that nvidia is down today makes sense. that's not to cast aspersions. but at this time broadening out is a good thing. i think it means there's all clear for the broader market? no, i don't think so yet. remains to be seen. but these stocks, i think they continue the do well for the foreseeable future even on a benign take. >> let's talk about broadening up the conversation. it was jobs today. we are going into a long weekend. there's potentially seasonality on the table that's worth talking about. steve, we got the jobs numbers today. fairly goldilocks. everybody was maybe happy where bad news is good news for the market because it manes potentially fed policy is working. what's your take? >> i think the consensus is september is on hold. november maybe on play.
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september did have a bad 2020, 2021, and 2022. we are definitely not in a 2022 environment. we're at the end of the rate hiking cycle, not in the middle of it. we don't have a lot of the head winds with a dollar. there's a lot of issues that were going on then that aren't going on now. into the back half of the year, i think we're going to rally. i also think that september could probably shock the market to the upside because if you have powell on the sidelines, you could get a 2%, 3%, 4% rally just into september alone going into the back-of the year. >> i think it's interesting and the seasonality seems to be getting a lot more attention. mike santoli saying he feel lights more than usual. when you look at the numbers where you're up double digits through august, most of the time, i think 59% or 60% of the time, september actually ends on the upside. what do you make about what you
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heard today, if that changes anything you think the fed is going to do, if you give them more solid footing to hold where they are in september? what do you think? >> yeah, i think so. i mean, they couldn't have asked for a better set of numbers today, that unemployment ticking up. it was really great. i think this definitely gives them cover to do nothing. why not? then look at the data. then they can decide again. but i don't know, they're not taking a victory lap, but quietly probably to themselves they maybe are a little bit. and it's deserved. this is that participation -- i thought it was really great, surprisingly good. >> tim, what do you make of that? particularly if you drill down into the numbers and look at the wage growth that was there, but less hot than expected? perhaps that's also goods an inflation indicator for the direction at which the fed is aiming to go?
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>> yeah, if you drill into the numbers there's a couple things to bite on. one is the size of the labor force went up over 750,000, and that's something that's a healthy sign. also means maybe we're normalizing some of these numbers. there's a lot of people that felt the unemployment dynamics have been skewed because of the size of the labor force and people staying out of the labor force. there's no question that the wages still -- they're better. there's enough in this economic report to show the economy is not falling out of bed. and dropping us into the context of the september that everyone thinks is going to be awful. that's the formula we've seen for equities. people have predicted things, especially in how this market was going to sequence coming out of covid. the one thing that i will say that tells you september should be something to be concerned at, if you look at the divergence between equities and leading indicators, it's about as wide as we've seen in 40 years. at some point i think you pay
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the piper. i think the pain trade is higher. i know the history around september, and i think we're going to see that. semiconductors finished today within 2% of all-time highs they're holding serve against the s&p, and that leadership is something that's been important for the markets. >> very interesting stuff. we got to move on. wti wrapping up its best week since the end of march. chart master said it could be headed to mid to high 80s. it's at 80 bucks now. what's next? carter worth back with an update. >> hi. i think you stick with it. energy obviously a very volatile area of the market, and of course, you know, as all k commodities are, wti is prone to headline news. but let's look an oil and then the oih drillers. one way to draw the lines. again, lines are a judgment, right? mine of course because i drew these, and one can draw them any
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way one wants, but that's what my eye sees. let's put in a downtrend line. first chart compared with a clear move. it's a reversal formation. we had energy, crude at 140 a barrel. ukraine invasion, and of course it drops to almost 65. here we are at 85, and i think we're going towards 90. i would just stick with it. as it relates to the energy shares market, oih really took it on the chin, dropping some 95% if you can imagine such a thing, to covid low. look at another way to draw the lines. these are weekly. we've moved above the downtrend in effect from the peak to the trough. final chart, same chart, but just another way to draw the lines. if you just examine the strength since the low, it's been very orderly, very sequ consequentia
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>> almost in the right order for o.h.i.o. game day tomorrow. thank you, carter. see you in a few minutes on "options action". we're going trade this. steve, what do you think when it comes to wti or the energy equities themselves? >> i agree with carter, i'm more bullish on the actual commodity than the understood lying equities. i think the equities have been efficient. the equities are the most efficient they've ever been, but at a certain point you get to a declining sense of revenues that are coming off those efficiencies. i do believe the commodity will probably be range bound. i think the lid will probably be 100 on oil this year. you have to remember, the u.s. has to replenish their reserves, so they're going to be a buyer. the saudis are going to cut back.
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opec -- doesn't matter. whenever opec cuts production you have to actually sell the commodity, because it's always inverse. i'm not worried about that. i think the u.s. will put a bid underneath this market for the commodity itself. >> karen, when you looked at wti and it was up 2%, does that tell you anything bigger beyond opec be the saudis? give you economic clues? >> it's interesting to me. that's a big move, and so therefore gasoline is up. we have been talking a lot about the consumer. i know we'll talk about that more, but that's something i'm aware of. it's not a great thing. interesting how strong oil is worldwide when you consider what's happening in china, and if they were -- if their economy improves a lot, that would make me think there's more upside for oil. i have been playing it through the oih. it's been okay, not as good as underlying. the oil is range bound, the oih should do well. >> coming up, trade alert on one
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big media stock. driving down shares of disney. why one of our traders is selling their stock. plus, shares of walgreens seeing red and so are a couple of our traders. "fast money" back in two. people are excited about what ai will do for them. we're excited about what ai will do for business. introducing watsonx a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business, you can build ai to help coders code faster, customer service respond quicker, and hr handle repetitive tasks in less time. let's create ai that transforms business with watsonx. ibm. let's create. how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good.
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now i can buy that electric scooter. i'm starting a private equity fund that specializes in midcap. you do you. switch to xfinity mobile today. welcome back to "fast money." disney dropping more than 2% today, trading at lows last seen in march 2020. remember this? the media giant pulling its programming from charter communications last night. the two struggling to agree on how much charter should pay moving forward. karen, you're selling disney stock. is it on this news? why? >> i bought it -- remember that iger interview with david favor and iger sounded pretty downbeat. they finally announced their earnings, the stocks did okayish. i thought maybe it was a sell the rumor, buy the news, all the the news is out.
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that's not the case. i dipped my toe. i don't have that toe anymore. it's gone. that was for 59 bucks. i don't know how this is going to shake out, this particular event, but i think the idea of, well, that's how it's always been done is no longer true. i'd rather watch from the sidelines and see how this plays out. meanwhile they've got the streaming business, which is losing a bunch of money. the street loved it in 2021 when money was free and it generated great stock performance. we're in a different world now. chalk it up to a mistake and take my punishment and go home. >> hey, it happens sometimes. guy, what do you make of disney right here? >> it's been -- welsh it's a disaster. i'm with karen. when they reported earnings a few weeks ago and announced price hikes and the stock was trading 91 in the afterhours i thought, that might have been it. the market is finally going to
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start to see the vision. here's the turn. this thing should be not off to the races but it should start to gain momentum. that was wrong. there will be people out there, the go woke go broke crowd will say it's a function of that. it's not. it's a function of a lot of poor decisions and frankly not a great backdrop. i think at a certain point karen, tim, and steve could agree there's a valuation play. the problem is they haven't given you any reason to sort of pursue that. >> steve? >> yeah, i threw in the towel a little bit ago as well. just got frustrated with seeing other stocks running up through the roof, a.i. related. but when you look at this, you started on your intro it's trading around the pandemic low some they're get nothing credit for the parks, which is an absurd amount of money tom guy's point, go woke, go broke, country's divided 50/50, so does it hurt to the point of it's 100% of the worries?
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no, but it doesn't help either. so i think they have media issues, parks issues, pricing issues, and they also have the woke issues that are staring them in the face, too. so i think it's a very difficult environment fordisney to actually conduct business in. >> yeah, makes a lot of sense. moving on, we've got a buzz kill for you on walgreens. shares dropping 17%, trading at levels not seen since 2009. the company announcing the ceo is stepping down after two and a half years. the stock has been cut by more than half since she took over. tim, you're a shareholder of this. i guess i was a little surprised at the announcement today. i guess investors are not happy about it, but what do you make of it? >> yeah, i was the one spewing all the vitriol and saying how embarrassed i am at holding this. there are a lot of stocks i'd like basketball a long-term investor, and in a portfolio there are stocks that are suppose to be portfolio
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stabilizers. walmart has been one of those for me. walgreens was suppose to be. it's one thing for a company to get it wrong, but this company's got it so wrong, and i'm wrong for staying in this name. i get i'm down 65%. a lot is because i believed the turn around had to come, but the valuation started to make it so compelling. talk about value trap. the ten-year average p.e. on this stock is 13 1/2. the five year is 9 1/2. now it's trading at 6 1/2, and it probably should. i'm invested in emerging markets. i've watched companies that go to zero, resource companies, what not. this is walgreens. this is a company i owned because i believe i understood their business. at this point they don't understand their business, and today's ceo oust or resignation, whatever we're calling this, comes after the cfo left in july. they downgraded 2003 to the
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bottom end of the range. we have no idea what's going to happen in 2024, and much of the hope of the stock is coming from the u.s. this can business and a growth in prescription volumes. i have zero confidence in any of it, but look, i'm mad at myself. this is an embarrassment. this is a stock that's not supposed to do this and the multiple tells you all you need to know. >> it's okay. mistakes happen sometimes, tim. it's nice you're owning up to them. to be fair, it looks like wall greens is trying to shift into more of a health care business, less of a retailer and perhaps that's stop of the confusion. i don't know. karen, what do you make of what's going on here? >> well, it's not good. what you touched on, that's part of the problem. the abrupt departure is bad. pays a huge dividend, which is a terrible reason to buy it. they should cut the dividend. they get nothing from having an 8% yield. it's only because the stock is so low.
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>> rite aid is rumored to be filing for bankruptcy. yet there's all of this other interesting movement going on in the pharmacy business with -- back to school, big changes. how will consumers respond to additional pressure on their wallets? we've got the winners and losers ahead. we'll spam you with a meat trade. we'll clean you up afterwards. to figure out, keep watching. we're back in two.
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got a quick market flash for um blackstone and airbnb will be added to the index replacing newell and lincoln national. meantime, after more than three years, the pause in student loan repayment is coming to an end. federal student loans begin to accrue interest today. borrowers must resume payments october 21st. the impact could be massive with deutsche bank estimating pending could take a $14 billion hit each month t. that has retailer bracing for buyer to spend less in discretional categories. how could investors view stocks heading into the student loan repayment environment? karen i've got thoughts but want to hear yours first. >> i think we've seen some of the evidence. we saw knit target, which wasn't great. saw it particularly yesterday, dollar general and five below. so it's clearly hurting that
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consumer. plus i talked about gas before. i don't know if this will be the kind of thing where the anticipation is worse than the actual event, but i am concerned about that consumer and i have exposure to that which hasn't done well. >> steve, you're nodding. >> i'm always worried about correlation equals causation, so i believe it will be a head wind, but i don't think it's going to be as bad as everyone thinks. that $14 billion number, people throw stuff into thin air. i don't think it's ever going to be as bad as that. people will figure it out. as long as the jobs department doesn't i fall apart. i know people will get affected by this, but i don't think it's going to be quite as bad as we say. >> already time for the final trade. we're going around the horn to guy. >> thanks for joining us. as always arc apa corps, staying in energy. >> tim? >> good luck to the ohio state. last call on searsucker and
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slumberger. energy stocks going higher. >> karen in. >> court, thanks for filling in friday afternoon. great holiday weekend everyone. my final trade, recovering tlt shorts. >> and steve. >> riverian. >> that does it for "fast money." but don't go anywhere, because "options action" is next.
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right now on "o.a.", a big week for tech. nasdaq gains over 3%. titans roar higher, an old favorite, dell. up over 21% today. are options traders betting this rally has trades? we'll debate. plus, charting crudes climb. carter here to tell us if there's still time to profit in the energy patch. later, cleanup in aisl

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