welcome to power lunch. good to have you back home with us at the table. >> good to be here. >> what are the odds the u.s. economy ends up in recession? goldman sachs cutting those chances to just 15%. and the market seemed to think we can avoid the worst, too.

consumer staples keep falling. plus no sign of recession in ticket sales for live events, not just taylor swift or beyonce. we'll talk to the head of the company that puts on monster jam, disney on ice, and the circus about the strong demand for experiences. >> first let's check on the markets. in the past hour we went to fresh session lows with the dow down 150 points but are off that some point. s&p down 11 points today. the nasdaq is back into positive territory by about 5 point. home builders are getting hit hard today as interest rates rise. the xhb home builders etf is down and the ten-year yield at last check was up around 425. shares of united airlines falling sharply midday as the company issued a nationwide ground stop due to computer issues. that stop has now been lifted. it seems to be that the fed has threaded the needle well enough to avoid tightening the u.s. economy into a recession.

goldman sachs today cutting its recession expectation. steve liesman joins us now with more. what can you tell us? >> bringing it down to 15 points, five points lower than they would be makes the probability about average at least so they say. that is no greater or lesser chance of recession than, hey, any normal year. it stands well below the average. in the most recent cnbc fed survey that was back in july which was at 48% and had in that survey fallen below 50% for the first time in a while. also backs up the call of fed governor chris woller who told cnbc in an exclusive interview today he sees the odds increasing for a soft landing for the u.s. economy. >> that was a hell of a good week of data we got last week. the key thing is it is going to allow us to proceed carefully as chair powell said in jackson hole. there is nothing saying we need to do anything imminent any time soon so we can just sit there, wait for the data, see if things continue. >> waller went on to say

inflation means the fed's top issue and is going to determine what it does next. he would not rule out an additional rate hike saying he does not think it would tip the economy into inflation, not ready to declare inflation victory. he is just one in a series of fed speakers we have this week. collins from boston, harper, williams,logan from dallas, and bowman and barr. the u.s. economy still pretty good. considerable challenges including rising entity prices, the lag impacts of rate hikes and bank credits but so far the data suggests goldman and others that recession may yet be avoided, guys. >> and as for an interest rate hike at the september meeting, that probability is declining, declining. >> we've now heard from a bunch of folks and i think you can take that from powell's remarks that september is going to be not one to remember perhaps when it comes to rate hikes. you know, that is going to give

him a whole lot more data and makes a lot of sense. one of the things waller said today is hey we were burned a couple times thinking inflation was transitory and then if you remember the beginning of this year, tyler, january looked really good inflation wise. until they went back and revised the success they thought they had and then two lousy inflation reports. i used to think as a reporter three is a trend. it may be five. >> but then that leaves open potentially a hike in november, right? >> it is still on the table in the 40ish percentile before powell spoke in jackson hole it was north of 50%. so it is in the kind of range of flip a coin. and it depends on your inflation outlook. and then soon after that we'll start having more conversations about when and if cuts are coming. >> thank you very much. good to have you with us. the consumer staples sector is down over the past month

maybe as the markets agree a recession is less and less likely. look at general mills and kellogg and campbell soup, staples, all near 52-week lows. here to discuss the tape ls struggle and tell us which ones are best positioned for a potential downturn or maybe no potential downturn is nick modi an rbc capital markets analyst. let's tackle the obvious one first. if you look at the stocks i mentioned there, campbell's, general mills, and what was the other one? kellogg. all down. do you attribute that to the fact that the likelihood of recession seems to be fading or is there something unique about these companies that is causing them to come down? >> i think there are a few things going on here, tyler. first i do think obviously the macro is having an impact, that tends to impact the consumer staple sector quite a bit given it is more defensive and so when people feel better about what is

happening, the sector tends to under perform. let's not forget this sector had incredible performance. i think 1800 basis points of out performance in 2022. when we walked into the year they were trading at almost all time relative highs versus the market. so our call coming into the year was, listen. that can't sustain itself. we saw a lot of pricing go into the market place but at some point it is going to start affecting the consumer. that is kiepd of what we're seeing right now. not only do we have the macro dynamic but i do think you're starting to see volumes kind of lag expectations as we start to lap some of the big price increases of a year ago. i think we'll start to see more of that weakness over the coming months and quarters. >> how bad could it get, nik? i am persuaded by the argument that after we've seen these massive price hikes go through there is no reason to think inflation should be off the table just because we think campbell's has never cut prices does not mean they won't be forced to this time.

>> correct. i think we should all be bracing for a promotional kind of environment that is maybe greater than what the management guided to. so that is number one. the second point, and this is more of a package food comment. we're seeing a lot of shifting of consumption from the center of the store where pricing still remains very sticky to the perimeter of the store where you see disinflation and inflation happen at a much greater rate. consumers are starting to recognize value and look at the price of eggs and what happened the last several months so they are making some choices like for a breakfast occasion instead of buying cereal buying fresh fruit or yogurt on eggs. so that is something we're seeing right now. >> in your coverage universe, nik, what is your favorite stock right now? which one is the one you would advise our viewers to stay away from? >> yeah, so our top idea for whole year is constellation

brand. they have a lot of momentum with their brands, corona, and some of the bud light dynamics we've been seeing coughing up a little extra volume to conflation. >> that sounds like a really good stock for a recession and really good stock for good times. why not? works both ways doesn't it? >> sometimes you can have your cake and eat it too. in this case that is what you're getting. in terms of names we are very cautious on, kimberly-clark because of the private label exposure, cautious on the package food names for the dynamics discussed earlier. i have to acknowledge these stocks have really performed badly to your earlier comment starting off the segment. and so you got to be careful. don't get too greedy on the down side. right now what you have to find is relative out performance and so we tend to prefer beverages over package food at this point. >> finally, nik, what would you

say to those, just last hour we were talking to wolf research, and maybe there is a situation where valuations are lower than historically? >> mond lease is one of the very few names across package food creating above where it had been in 2022 so seeing some very good results. look, they have a portfolio that tend to be a lot more sticky when you think about snacking and chocolate and confection and global exposure, too, where economies are doing well especially in the emerging markets because of all the inflation. whether we walk into a recession or not i don't know. all i can tell you is the consumer is definitely behaving like there are some challenges coming down the pike. that is where we're seeing a lot of trade down right now in the market. >> very interesting. a warning perhaps on multiple levels. thanks for joining us today. we appreciate it. >> thank you. we've been discussing the possibility, probability of recession and the stock impact of all of that.

let's turn to rick santelli now as yields seem to be dominating the narrative today in certainly parts of the market like home builders. >> yes. absolutely. i suspect it is going to remain hard for quite a while. new studies continue to come out that when the central banks raise rates, there is a long lasting effect. it doesn't just disappear quickly. maybe as long as 8 to 10 years, i believe san francisco fed, something to pay attention to. if you look at rates today, after what i considered a weak employment report, after what i consider a lot of weak pmis around the globe what you see is that long dated came in with a wallop. 10 year, 20 year, 30 years higher and two-year note yields somewhat flat earlier in the session. that all changed. we see rates are almost a parallel shift with very little curve action going on. if you look at the 2s versus 10s, virtually unchanged as the ten-year hovers very near 16-year high yields. and the real spread for recessions, three-month to

ten-year, okay? in may it was minus 186. right now it is minus 119. that is almost 70 basis points less inverted. i heard everybody go, woo. see? maybe we're not having a recession. first of all when those reverse it doesn't mean you're not going to have a recession but the point i want to make is even at minus 119 that is more inverted than it's been. my chart goes back to '82. there is nothing more inverted than minus 100. the point being is that everything that norm ploints to recessions are still pointing to recession. if you look at the onshore dollar versus yuan for a brief period today the dollar would have closed at a 16-year high. it was only because on the close the yuan came up a little bit. but it is very near the best levels on the dollar, worst levels onion shore yuan since 2007. finally, listen. if you look at the administration when it was sworn in in february of 2020 and look on top of ten-year yields you'd be hard pressed to say the charts aren't shadow boxing each

other to the upside. tyler, back to you. >> mr. santelli, thank you very much. good to have you here. coming up airbnb shares higher today as the stock gets added to the s&p 500 but now the company is facing what could amount to a ban in new york city. details coming up. and energy the best performing sector today as oil prices rise again with oil up 8% in a week and climbing toward $90 a barrel. onpoomg the latest cinup "wer lunch." you got this. let's go. gobble gobble. i've seen bigger legs on a turkey! rude. who are you? i'm an investor in a fund that helps advance innovative sports tech like this smart fitness mirror. i'm also mr. leg day...1989! anyone can become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq, a fund that gives you access to nasdaq-100 innovations.

i go through a lot of pants. before investing carefully read and consider fund investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses and more in prospectus at invesco.com.

the power goes out and we still have wifi investment objectives, risks, charges, expenses to do our homework. and that's a good thing? great in my book! who are you? no power? no problem. introducing storm-ready wifi. now you can stay reliably connected through power outages with unlimited cellular data and up to 4 hours of battery back-up to keep you online. only from xfinity. home of the xfinity 10g network.

welcome back. check out shares of airbnb soaring today on news they are joining the s&p 500. shwe have seen this before with tesla and other hot stocks. even as the door opens another one may be closing for the company. new york beginning its crackdown on rentals today. this could be a biggy. robert frank is here to discuss. >> maybe it's 10,000 doors closing when you talk about airbnb. they have 40,000 listings. some say 10,000 maybe over 20,000 listings that disappear after today because today marks the first day that new york will start enforcing this new law, which airbnb says is a defacto ban on airbnb. what it says is you have to be present if you're renting out your apartment. you can't just rent out a whole apartment and not be there.

that is what a lot of people do. >> you come to new york, get an airbnb and the owner is not there. >> that's what makes it great. the other problem is you have to register with the city. so far the city has only approved 250 applications. there are tens of thousands of listings. just to get it approved is difficult. the city doesn't have the staff to approve them but also there are all these building regulations that you have to go through to get approval. so many people say this is the end of many of the airbnb listings in new york and some say 70% of the listings could disappear after today. >> when you say building regulations talking about city regulations? >> city code. >> and you have to comply with all of these things and there is a bureaucrat somewhere. >> that's right. and another big part of this is many buildings and co-op boards forbid people from doing this. once you call the city and say our building doesn't allow it even if you apply you can't get it because the building the city

now has that record of your building not participating, not allowing it. >> have other cities put in place similar regulations and what has the experience been there? >> this is among the most stringent in the country but there's been a whole escalating series of regulations -- dallas, philadelphia, new orleans just passed recent regulations. the good news for airbnb is that people have found a lot of loop holes, ways around it, and they're just not enforced. is new york city really going to send someone to an apartment and say oh, you weren't there. >> to the owner. >> the neighbor may report. >> a neighbor. and that is what started this. a lot of neighbors were complaining about this. you could say well i was at the store or whatever. they are really difficult to enforce an think you'll see a big decline initially and decline in revenue for airbnb but eventually it'll creep back and that will be people working finding ways around it. >> is the argument part of this that as we talk about a lot

rents have been at record highs in manhattan and there is some concern people are buying up properties just to rent them out for airbnb sitting vacant #l 0% to 90% of the time and maybe somebody would like that property as a rental themselves? is that part of the reason why they're moving in this direction or no? >> it is now the reason they're moving in this direction. rents were not a big part of this legislation when it was sort of bubbling up in 2000 and now with rents at all time high in july, what people say is all these airbnbs have sucked inventory out of the rental market into airbnbs. this could bring that inventory back and lower rents. that's the hope. we'll see whether it works. >> all right. that's fascinating stuff. thank you as always. good to see you. coming up, weight loss bringing huge gains. the maker of wegovy, novo nordis becoming europe's most valuable coan he the details on that, next. with comcast business... it is.

is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

(fan #1) there ya go! that's what i'm talkin' about! (josh allen) is this your plan to watch the game today? (hero fan) uh, yea. i have to watch my neighbors' nfl sunday ticket. (josh allen) it's not your best plan. but you know what is? myplan from verizon. switch now and they'll give you nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv, on them. (hero fan) this plan is amazing! (josh allen) another amazing plan, backing away from here very slowly. (fan #1) that was josh allen. (fan #2) mmhm. (vo) football season is here. get nfl sunday ticket from youtubetv on us. a $449 value. plus, get a free samsung galaxy z flip5. only on verizon.

welcome back to power lunch. oil trading wrapping up for the day with another big gain. pippa stevens has the details. >> brent is back above $90 for the first time since november. that comes after saudi arabia said they will extend their 1 million barrel per day voluntary

production cut through the end of the year. russia also said it will reduce exports by 300,000 barrels per day through the end of the year. what took the market by surprise here was that the extending it through october wasn't so much of a surprise, largely expected but the fact saudi arabia preemptively prolonged the cut through the end of the year was what people were not expecting. also the coordination between saudi arabia and russia speaks of the alliance still very much intact and there had been worries earlier this year that perhaps there was some competition there and the relationship wasn't on the most solid footing. the fact that both announced this together means that they are in this together and they do see a floor -- >> were the russian barrels already withheld from the market? you say they are going to cut. is this an additional cut of 300,000 or just the continuation? >> continuation so a little smaller. it was initially 500,000 barrels per day so they are going to extend that export cut by

300,000 a day. that is on top of the cuts already in place by opec and allies. once again it is this coordination and shows that saudi arabia is willing to do whatever it takes. they said they will re-evaluate the cuts every month. they could deepen it or lessen it depending how the market looks. >> is there any failure here by the biden administration? if the key linchpin for the price of oil right now, we know they've done everything else possible over the past year, emptied spr, un, to get the price down, then was there some alternate universe in which they were able to come in and leverage them to not go this route? to kind of increase production? i don't know what we have to offer at this point. >> doing business with saudi arabia is never an easy thing for any administration particularly now. >> sure. >> so i think it just shows this market is global and that while u.s. production is about 12.8 million barrels per day we are pumping, pumping a whole lot, almost at peak output. that was 13 million barrels per day prior to the pandemic so pumping a whole lot but of course every administration is

watching gas prices very closely ahead of election cycle because that resonates most with american consumers. >> where do the saudis want the price? >> probably north of 100. i think 80 is the lowest they can with stand operations with because they have very, very aggressive projects they need to fund and their output is oil. >> they're buying soccer teams. they got all these projects to fund. start there, huh? >> and the lower prices have really hurt and lower volumes have hurt their gdp which has been down on a quarterly basis. this is a longer term. they're saying if we take this pain in the short term by lower volumes but the price is above 80 ultimately we'll come out on top. clearly the gamble they're going with. >> pippa, thanks. we appreciate it. pippa stevens reporting. let's get over to steve kovac for the cnbc news update. >> united flights are once again cleared for departure after a technology issue led to a brief nationwide ground stop this afternoon. united officials teld cnbc it

held all departing flights because of the issue. flights already in the air were not affected. the issue was resolved in about an hour. also lawyers for convicted murderer alex murdaugh filed a motion today seeking a new trial in the killings of his wife and youngest son and claim they uncovered evidence the clerk of the court tampered with the jury by telling them not to believe murdaugh's testimony or evidence presented by the defense. the once prominent south carolina lawyer is serving two consecutive life sentences without parole. for the first time in 18 years the rolling stones are releasing new music. the band's new album will debut on wednesday during a youtube live stream. it is their first since 2005's "a bigger bang." mick jager still going strong at 80, guys. >> they are amazing, the stones. it is amazing the stones are still rolling. particularly keith richards. a lot of miles on him i tell you. good for them. thanks, steve.

>> thanks. >> some kind of scientific research project in the making. another story we're watching today is in the weight loss space where wegovy maker is now europe's most valuable company. joining us to discuss is cnbc's new pharma reporter. round of applause and welcome back. >> thank you. great to be here with you both. >> my favorite story the last couple weeks was when novo was doing so well the danish central bank had to cut rates because it was driving up their currency as a result. massive influence. >> yeah. amazing just how well this company has done as a result of the weight loss drug phenomenon. not only is it people, this initial demand, people getting it here in the u.s. but now in the uk launching this week and because of supply or the demand has been so strong, the company actually has to limit the quantities and the supply that they're offering. it'll be interesting to see just how that drug does in the uk because it has been so successful here in the u.s. already. >> how much does wegovy cost? >> in the u.s. about $1,300 a

month. in the uk from what we've seen so far at pharmacies, people who are paying with private insurance as well as out of pocket it is about $300 a month. so pretty steep discount. >> why? >> drugs are always more expensive in the u.s. >> yes. >> when they say it's $300 there, $1,300 here, is that apples to apples? is 1300 the list price but people are actually paying less per month? or in the uk someone is subsidizing that thousand dollars a month? >> so it is interesting here. a lot of people are paying out of pocket because few insurers cover it right now or it is very limited circumstances. so a lot of these people in the u.s. are paying it out of pocket but in the uk you can actually get it for free if you are part of a weight loss program through the nhs. >> get it for free. >> you can get it for free. >> and the 300 a month is for what? people in the uk who are not

getting it under the health service? >> yes. >> private pay. >> private pay or out of pocket. >> private pay to private pay it is a thousand dollars difference. >> if you have insurance in the u.s., so 1300 is the list price if we just walked in without insurance to buy it. what would the price be if united health or one of these major companies -- >> it depend on your plan. >> and whether they would cover it. is it prescribed for anything besides, wegovy, anything besides weight loss? >> right now it is weight loss. wegovy is specifically for weight loss. however, there has been enthusiasm that more people will get access to the drug because a trial last month showed that people with heart disease may also benefit from the drug. we have to see whether that opens up the door for more people to get the drug. >> lily's competing drug is monjaro. where does that stand in terms of getting approval for payments and so and so forth? >> it is awaiting fda approval

for obesity and then we'll have to see how insurance follows. >> now it is prescribed for? >> diabetes. >> for lowering a1c or whatever it is i hear on all the commercials. >> i'm thinking through, lily's headquarters is in indianapolis. what is that doing for their gdp? >> the company is worth $500 billion now. >> and they have alzheimer's as well. it is an incredible success story. >> welcome. >> thank you. >> nice to have you. still to come on "power lunch" consumers are still consuming live events or are they? we've been hearing a lot about titan spending yet artists like taylor swift are still selling out huge shows. is it just her? the whole industry? we'll talk to an insider next. (sfx: stone wheel crafting) ♪

the biggest ideas inspire new ones. 30 years ago, state street created an etf that inspired the world to invest differently. it still does. what can you do with spy? ♪ let innovation refunds help with your erc tax refund so you can improve your business however you see fit. rosie used part of her refund to build an outdoor patio. clink! dr. marshall used part of his refund to give his practice a facelift. emily used part of her refund to buy... i run a wax museum. let innovation refunds help you get started on your erc tax refund. stop waiting. go to innovationrefunds.com you really got the brows.

welcome back. while concert goers have been rolling out big money for beyonce and taylor this summer what about the rest of the live event business? our next guest has a good pulse on the industry and state of the consumer, the chairman and ceo

of felld entertainment includin properties like monster jam, disney on ice, ringling brothers, super motocross world championships starting its playoffs on u.s. and peacock on saturday. mr. feld welcome. good to have you with us. >> thank you for having me. >> what are the strong points of the business now? people want to go out and have experiences and spend money to do so? >> yes, the business has been great post covid. i think a lot of it is for us we have all family entertainment. there's a great demand. we bring it to them. so we're constantly touring. we have between 16 and 18 tours out on the road now. we're very excited about super motocross and the first playoff at the z max dragaway right outside of charlotte, north

carolina. and so we started super cross in january and ran through may and then promoto cross starts. they are two different sports but there is an overlap in rider, teams, the disciplines are slightly different. so what we decided to do was create this league which is super motocross and we have the finals, the world championship to really define who is the best rider in the world. so the top 30 riders will compete for the biggest prize. we're thrilled to open this week. >> as we look at video of one of the motocross events are the events indoors mostly or stadium event, outdoors, or on tracks that are designed outdoors for this kind of racing? >> for super cross, they are in

stadiums. some are indoor stadiums and some are outdoor stadiums. that is 17 events. then promoto cross is in these moto parks all over the country and they do 11 events. that is the 28. then we have the two playoffs and the world championship which will be at the l.a. coliseum in los angeles on the 23rd. >> tell us about the relaunching of ringling brothers barnum & bailey which is to begin later this month. it has been dormant for several years now. what is going to be different about it and why do you think now is the time to bring it back? >> ringling brothers barnum bailey is the icon of all entertainment in the world really. and we took a hiatus in 2017. we've now brought it back completely reimagined. and it's going to be incredible. we're in rehearsals. we open the 29th of the month in

boazer, louisiana and then go on a two and a half year tour. it is something different. there is a great need for family entertainment. and all i can say is, ringling brothers barnum bailey is simple fun. you'll be amazed. every generation enjoys it. and we're thrilled to be back. >> i'm looking at what appear to be some of the performers, dressed no the in what i would call circus regalia. they look a little more casual, relatable or is this just rehearsal? >> what you're seeing is rehearsal footage and they are in whatever they work out in on a daily basis. >> like lululemon and so forth >> i kind of dig it >> i like t i think i kind of like it. kind of their dress as they are as opposed to, you know, more spangly costumes or whatever.

>> it is amazing. we have over -- we have 18 nationalities represented from literally all over the world doing some of the most amazing things. what we've been able to do with 75 performers, brought them all together as unified groups so you'll see a lot of people not only doing what their main specialty is but working in a lot of other different acts. so it has a whole new spirit, whole new feeling, and it is truly the greatest show on earth. >> all right. we look forward to seeing it come through this part of the country and kenneth feld, thank you very much. >> thank you. all right. a quick programming note. you can catch the $1 million super motocross world championship playoffs starting this saturday at 3:00 p.m. eastern on u.s.a. network and our streaming cousin peacock. still to come, disney is playing hardball the company urging spectrum users and viewers to switch to a hulu live plan as the media companies remain at odds over a new

distribution deal. imicio aerheheut t platnsft t break. . a powerhouse lotion that moisturizes, heals, and smooths dry skin. with 7 moisturizers and 3 vitamins, you can pay more but you can't get more. gold bond. champion your skin.

welcome back. disney butting heads with spectrum encouraging cable subscribers to switch to hulu tv if they want espn programming. julia boorstin has more. everyone seems to think this time is different and maybe it is going to show that disney doesn't have the leverage it once had. what do you think? >> this is quite a stand off here. disney and charter are continuing their negotiation which has been going on all weekend and now charter's nearly 15 million subscribers remain without access to disney's channels including abc and espn. missing college football, the u.s. open right now djokovic playing and charter customers cannot watch. last night disney launched a new consumer focused campaign to push consumers to its own tv bundle. hulu with live tv which includes espn and abc. meanwhile charter tells us spectrum is also working with its customers to find alternative ways to watch disney programming. spectrum is offering customers

30% off fubu tv for two months a package that includes nfl red zone and espn. that offer sending fubu shares spiking today. the pressure is building on both sides to settle this in time for the return of "monday night football" which is on espn and abc and that starts monday. bank of america writing, quote, there is a significant urgency for these negotiations as the longer it drags out the more customers charter will lose and the less likely they are to come to terms with disney. meanwhile charter's ceo is saying the company is open to giving up abc and espn for good. of course that is what makes this time feel really different and would of course have massive implications for disney's licensing revenues and call into question the business model for all of the media giants and charter could lose a meaningful number of paid tv subscribers if that happens. kelly? >> it's fascinating. if they called disney's bluff this time, you know, if spectrum

does that and basically says, you know, no. you can either take the rate we're giving you or you can, you know, leave, then what do you think would happen? >> i think what will happen is charter would basically be saying we're going to offer our subscribers the paid tv bundle, a lower fee, and they won't have to pay for espn but also won't get espn or the other disney channels. what they're basically saying is we won't be prioritizing the margins we get as a broadband provider and won't be offering paid tv at a lower margin. of course they would like to make a deal and hope it does not come to that. both sides say they want to make a deal here and ultimately would be better for both to make a deal but what charter is saying is they don't see it as being worth while to offer this at such a low margin if disney is offering much of the same content directly to consumers really as an alternative in competing directly with them. that is why one of the key negotiating points for charter

is charter wants disney plus to be offered for free to their subscribers and disney is saying, hey, there is a ton of other content on disney plus including a massive library of films and tv. why would we give that away for free? that is devaluing our content. that is one of the key sticking points right now. a lot hangs in the balance. >> fascinating stuff. julia, thanks very much. changing landscape. new data is showing despite an economic slowdown in china tivg.ld food market there cou behrin that story is next. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely.

with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening. since my citi custom cash® card automatically adjusts to earn me more cash back in my top eligible category... suddenly life's feeling a little more automatic. like doors opening wherever i go... [sound of airplane overhead] even the ground is moving for me! y'all seeing this? wild! and i don't even have to activate anything. oooooohhh... automatic sashimi! earn cash back that automatically adjusts to how you spend with the citi custom cash® card. [mind blown explosion noise]

welcome back. even as some are expressing concern about the economy in china, fast food companies there are staying the course projecting major opportunity. >> reporter: fast food companies are really playing the long game in china. starbucks has been in china since 1999 and calls it the coffee giant's second home market with nearly 6500 stores, same store sales increasing 46% in the most recent quarter as it lapped last year's covid lockdowns. executives have talked about

long-term plans in china as starbucks continues to convert consumers from tea to coffee drinkers and also battle some local rivals. yum china's ceo talked about quote abundant white space in china this past quarter with nearly 10,000 kfc locations in 800 cities without one and also called out the opportunity for pizza hut to continue to grow from its more than 3,000 locations today. three other players have announced more recent expansion plans popeyes planning to hope 1700 stores in china in the next decade, and papa johns and fountain best more than 1300 stores in south china by 2040. finally subway and a local developer plan to open 4,000 stores in the next 20 years. euro monitor data show overall the food market is still below prepandemic levels. separate data from information technologies show nearly 70% projected growth from 2017 to 2024 with that projected market size hitting more than 200 billion in china. andrew charles talks about the allure and americana of the iconic u.s. brands expanding

there along with the growing middle class and younger consumers eager to dine although of course the current economic climate could have head winds for those diners in the near term. back over to you. >> kate, a lot of these companies seem to want to add stores, which is another way of saying they want to expand in china. what are the obstacles they face for doing so? >> certainly obstacles. the biggest challenge of course making sure you are working well with the government there. there is also a lot of competition, a low barrier to entry. andrew charles did warn there is a lot of competition. we saw this with starbucks and luck in but starbucks is a very different experience than its competitor analysts have said. there's also of course been geo political tensions over the years he mentions where companies get caught up if that. one thing to remember on the growth opportunity much like the u.s. fast food often a more attainable luxury for people and analysts talk about here in the u.s. it is kind of the last place to cut back in a downturn because you still have to eat so that is something important to consider here because remember the price point for a lot of these companies is quite low for

the consumer. >> all right, kate. thanks very much. good to see you. kate rogers. >> thank you. speaking of fast food it is time for today's three stock lunch. we'll begin with oracle today. a bullish ai cloud out prompting an upgrade from bark liz saying it is a multi year growth story here with the chief is david katz. oracle, what would you do with the stock here? >> the stock has been one of the cheaper technology companies for the last few years. it's been the wall flower of the group. and we think that that's real. the stock has gone from cheap to fairly valuable. we think it's going to have good business momentum. earnings estimates are coming up for this year, and next year we're very comfortable holding the stock. we prefer amazon and qualcomm, but again, oracle is a good company right now. >> all righty, let's turn to papa johns pizza, a big move from the mid cap index to the small cap index. the stock also getting an

upgrade recently from wedbush, which said the stock is just too cheap. what's the trade here, david? >> so on papa johns, we'd be a seller. we think the stock has done poorly this year. the business trends have been difficult this year. they're going to have down earnings, yet it does sell at 29 times earnings. this would be one taking money off the table. if you want to have money in the space, we greatly prefer domino's, which has earnings growth and much better long-term potential. so if you want the space, domino's is a better choice. >> it's interesting how they've been able to do that for so long. what about united health care, which sold off last week, but is rallies ying today. >> we think they're poised for a good back half. health care has done poorly this year. united health care has done poorly within the group. there are some expense concerns. they have a great management team. they are part of a health care solution. they're about 19 times earnings, which is cheaper than it's been

for the last years. we think if you have a 6 to 12 month time horizon, it's a very attractive price. we like the group, we like this one best. >> what do you think is going on with the market overall. the move today is striking. the impact on the homebuilders, the rotation we've seen so far in the back half where energy's outperforming. what's really going on here, do you think? >> you had a great rally for about five or six months, treading water over the last month. we think it's going to be a pause that refreshes, you're going to have a good last four or five months of the year. we think there's going to be rotation. we think the things that did best like technology are going to slow down, and we think things that have done really poorly like health care, financials utilities are poised for a better second half. we think yields are at the higher end of where they're going to be. we do like three to seven-year bonds at this point and we expect yields to ultimately trend lower, and we think oil prices are probably at the higher end of their range.

>> that would be some nice news, yields are going down, oil prices are going tdown. thanks so muchor f your time. closing time is next. powe >> announcer: catch the market zone today on "closing bell," sponsored by e-trade for morgan stanley. d unlock opportunities in the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. with powerful, easy-to-use tools, power e*trade makes complex trading easier. react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity. e*trade from morgan stanley

how's the chicken? the prawns are delicious. oh, i have a shellfish allergy. one prawn. very good. did i say chicken wrong? tired of people not listening to what you want? it's truffle season! ah that's okay... never enough truffles. how much are they? it's a lot. oh okay - i'm good, that - it's like a priceless piece of art. enjoy. or when they sell you what they want? yeah. the more we understand you, the better we can help you. that's what u.s. bank is for. huge relief. yeah... ♪ i was told my small business wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. [coughs] good to go. yeah, i think i'll get a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. no. i'm going to get a second opinion. with innovation refunds, there's no upfront cost to find out. so why not check like i did for my small business? take the first step to see if your small business qualifies for the erc.

this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. mlb chooses t-mobile for business for 5g solutions... ...to not only enhance the fan experience, but to advance how the game is played. now's the time to see what america's largest 5g network can do for your business. welcome back, wow, toy

le tyler, four and a half minutes, this is a luxury. there are a burge bunch more headlines you need to know about now. let's get right to it starting with that live entertainment thing we discussed earlier in the show. wolfe research upgraded formula 1 series c stock highlighting the value of monetizing luxury global sports. their conviction is about the magnitude of f1's opportunities to upgrade meteorite sponsorships and a concord agreement. >> i don't know the concord agreement but what i do know is that f1 and tv viewing are just going like this. >> and they had the big vegas race this year that everyone's been talking about for months and months and months. >> it is an incredibly value global property and obviously something everyone wants to be part of. >> there's an interesting tieback to the disney story. who is the payor for all of these sexy media properties whether that's espn or formula one or something like that, you know, i feel like it's still ultimately going to end up in the hands of big tech, youtube.

they just have the pockets and if we're going in that direction, this could be an interesting moment both for formula one and also for disney. kind of an interesting marker along the way. >> the money has to come from somewhere. if it's not going to come from cable survivors it may well come from the likes of amazon or apple. slowing inflation is hitting corporate profits. when inflation goes up it can do wonders for companies' profits. but when it starts to dcool, th wonder goes away. after tax u.s. corporate profits were down 9.4% from a year earlier. it's kind of axiomatic, when inflation rises, companies are raising their prices, and they can help -- that can help boost their profits. >> it's one of these wonky data points that doesn't get a lot of day-to-day attention. >> you like the wonk, don't you? >> when challenger job cuts were 75,000, corporate bankruptcies are on the rise, this is the

leading edge that you want to watch. so are higher mor quadrtgage ra which are creates a golden handcuff effect, with 80% of homeowners feeling locked in with their existing mortgage. most saying the magic number to move in terms of the mortgage rate for them would be 5%. >> and that is a far cry from where we are right now, driving around my town, which is a good real estate market, but there is nothing for sale. there is no inventory. now, we're going into a seasonally slow period. people generally like to get into their house in the summertime, if they have kids especially and so forth. >> our town has sent a mailer around, here's the properties we've sold, the average days on the market this year has been 19, the average home selling for 105% of list prices. and home prices are on the way back up. warner brothers discovery adjusted its full-year expectations. the company expecting its adjusted earnings to take a hit of 300 million to 500 million as

productions have really come -- ground to a halt, and obviously it makes for a much tougher environment for the entertainment companies to do business. >> it showed up in the jobs report last week that those kind of positions were in decline last month. this has gone on so much longer. understand the stakes when they look at the headlines every day and see the autoworkers and all of these different people getting these huge pay increases, but also with what's at stake. whoultimately, if you have a hot new property, how are you measuring who watches it? how are you getting a cut of that? they have to figure this out. like julia said, labor day was a big deadline, and now that's come and gone. and woman are fueling china's box office. it's not just the barbie effect here. a morning consult survey finds that women are showing up to movies there in big numbers. it marks a cultural shift for the country and a new entry point for maybe some hollywood studios. women account for less than half the region's population but 52%

of china's movie goers. >> very interesting. what did you learn while you were off? what did you learn? >> i still didn't get everything done. >> there's never enough time in the day. >> no, there's not. you know, back to school is -- i didn't have any supplies this morning, and then the bus didn't show up, you know, it's good to be back. >> it's good to have you here. thank you all for watching. >> "closing bell" starts right now. thank you very much. welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner live from post 9 here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with a debate on the state of stocks, whether they're poised to buck a historical trend or succumb to september's seasonally sad story. one of the biggest bulls and biggest bears square off on that critical question. first, your score card with 60 minutes to go. interest rates rising, that put a lid on a lot of today's action, rising oil prices weighing on sentiment too even as energy stocks s