and i would sell it. >> guy? >> congrats to the entire crew that put this together. >> yes. >> nice to be here. beautiful. >> oracle upgrade in earnings. >> that's your final trade? >> of course it is. >> all right. thank you for watching "fast money" from our brand new set here at the nasdaq. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now. new set. "mad money" with jaim cramer starts right now. >> my mission is simple, to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now. hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money." welcome to cramerica. want to make friends? i'm just trying to make you a little money. my job is not just to make money, but to entertain you. don't like september, never have. always seems like the month where the sellers come out of nowhere. the wood work, out wilderness.

today the dow lost 109 point thes. nasdaq only dipped 0.08%. bond yields short and long are headed the wrong way, meaning higher. different stocks always march to the beat of higher rates, march down that is. the market's over bought, we got some new supply coming. including a gigantic one that was supposed to be red hot, siz sizzling. it seems to be cooling rather rapidly. it doesn't thaep help that we h looming strike against one or all of the big three automakers. oil prices continue to climb higher. all bad. no wonder people want to sell. it actually makes sense. i made all these worries kcrystl clear to the cnbc investing club. we know interest rates always

marrie matter and we fear the ipo market unleashing the dogs of excess supply. the thing about this market is it does have a self-correcting nature to it. as soon as you point out something negative it immediately does get hammered. for example, when i mulled over the ipo sale this weekend by the once legendary softbank i had a vision of a company of a company that's stock doubled from the get go. now that doesn't look like it will be the case. pretty much every aspect of tech, which includes being the central processing unit for nvidia's most advanced line of artificial intelligence chips, the ipo is simply not yet drawn that kind of interest that i thought it would. that's fantastic news for the overall market. the best thing that could happen for all the bulls is that arm stock goes to a slight premium and everyone including you gets some stock. but it doesn't shoot up so fast it unleashes a flood of additional ipos. we can't handle the supply.

over enthusiasm, corrected. what else? i feared that the only thing keeping the fed from continuing to raise rate s is that sticky nature of higher housing prices. the stock gods heard my concern and the shares of all the major homebuilders fell precipitously today. they've been the nemesis in any role of their stocks which have been among the strongest performers in the market this year, could be signaling a long awaited cooling off of home prices meaning the fed might be done, over exuberance, expunged. i was none too happy to hear that president biden isn't worried about it. i mean, how come you're not worried about the oil issue shutting down. 'cause biden know something we don't know, maybe something about the uaw's intransigent leadership. biden's femaleel good story doe

jive with the facts. if there's no strike, that's great news for the markets because we don't want to lose that manufacturing capacity. prices would shoot up with a strike. a strike will make cars and trucks a lot more expensive. it sure looks like the uaw wants to strike, though. can president biden have been that idle in the statement? no way to curb your lack of enthusiasm after his offhanded remark. the new lead of the uaw who is a throwback, when this union could effectively bring the whole city of detroit to its knees and hurt the whole country. then there's isoil. it's become the momentum change. i like pioneer natural resources. pioneer's the low cost in the premium. i put them in only because i have yet to figure out how we can reverse the trend of higher energy prices. no answer short of the president dumping whatever he can from the entire strategic petroleum reserve at once, a sub optical

move to bridge a temporary situation. what was most encouraging today had to do with the mega caps, these remain unbelievable. out of nowhere we got some crazy rallies, meta platform after spending the morning treading water. a classic kcase of an increase n the pace of nothing, a characteristic of all the mega caps. same deal with characteristic of all the mega caps. i like that more. same deal with microsoft, an explosion higher basedd on absolutely nothing. apple, nvidia were resting comfortably. tesla jumped more than 11 bucks on better sales in china. it does call into question all the worries that we have of a flood of cheaper chinese electric vehicles here, swamping our auto market, say something will happen, talk about with gina raimondo fresh off her trip to china. she is so on this.

we had a tougher time with senior growth stocks. chipotle tacked on almost 13 points after a strong push by baird. i think the stock was headed to 2,100. even as the darn thing's already up 40% for the year because growth stocks in this market tend to have tremendous staying power, running service now, up another 6 and closing in on 600, where it's down 14 points. the only spoil sport is the very odd action in salesforce. blowout quarter just last week, and rallied 12 points in after hours trading. you see almost the entire move now repealed one week before the huge dream force conference in san francisco nonetheless. these positive wills not outweigh the negatives if interest rates don't stop rising. it happened again today, just a huge increase in rates. yesterday's investment club, i talk about the pernicious nature of relentless trading, as they tend to crush the stocks in the industrials and the transports, which is exactly what happened today. there's no way this market will be able to advance if rates keep

climbing, no way. i repeat that. no way. look, i've been adamant there will be no recession, but that adamant came from a belief that those who looked at interest rates a year ago, the inverted yield curve and pronounced them as a harbinger of a recession were just dead wrong. rates have to stop to keep that rece recession off the table. maybe we avoid both. rates stabilizes, stocks fly higher. here's the bottom line. right now i'm still putting the hate on september, i always do. it's a month that is down on average about 0.7% a year until otherwise proven wrong by more than just a couple of insanely robust mega cap tech stocks. let's go to edward in california. edward. >> caller: yeah, hi, jim, thanks for taking my call. >> of course, thank you. >> caller: i bought some google before the split, and it went down and it's gone up a little bit, and so i'm a little bit

positive, but it's been kind of nowhere since then, and i'm wondering if because of the increased pressure from creditors, if i should sell it or if there's something on the horizon that's going to make it go up? >> this is google? okay. let me explain what i think can happen here. i am a direct tv user, okay? i just got rid of it. i'm pulling down the dishes, they wreck the look of the house. everybody else is too because of youtube. who owns youtube? alphabet. who owns google, alphabet. i'm still putting the hate on september, but maybe i'll be proven wrong by more than a couple of mega cap tech stocks that happen all during 2010 to 2020. on "mad money" tonight, august was a whirlwind. i got to recap the auction and the setoff a little hard for the month of september, and cramer, nvidia has obviously had a monster run. is the stock ready for another leg higher or should investors

start getting a little cautious. as i mentioned, commerce secretary gina raimondo just returned from a trip to china, meeting with a bunch of important officials. so i'm sitting down with the commerce secretary to learn more about what went on during this highly anticipated visit. so stay with cramer. >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money," follow @jimcramer on twitter. have a question? tweet cramer, #madtweets. send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com. or give us a call at 1-800-743-cnbc. miss something? head to madmoney.cnbc.com.

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summer's over, before you can get your arms afternoon the present, you knneed to know whe we're coming from. i want to spend a few minutes reviewing what happened in the tumultuous month of august with all the major averages finishing down. that under sells the volatility though. in the second half of july i warned you repeatedly that the market was due for a pull back. that's what hit us where the dow and s&p pulled back 5 and 6% respectively. that's a big decline. the nasdaq plunged 9% from its mid-july peak. now, two weeks ago we were teetering. after those three straight weeks of decline, we were terrified of what would happen when market darling nvidia reported earnings, and that's been a focus of mine, and jay powell made his big speech a couple of days later, the very thing that killed the market a year ago. that's right around when i started feeling more constructive about the market. in large part because the tone

was too negative. everyone was betting we'd get the same thing happening. by mid-august we began to add some of our favorite positions. travel trust put a lot of minnesota to work because the market felt too oversold. that crucial week proved to be a turning point for the market. nvidia shot the lights out with its second straight enormous beat and raise result, while wall street's initial reaction to the numbers was schizophrenic, everybody had been terrified. one reason the stock came roaring back last week after really getting hammered is people said it's not that good. that was wrong. as for jackson hole, that ended up being nothing to worry about. while jay powell told us that inflation remains too high, no kidding and reiterated the fed's long-term 2% inflation target, again, no kidding. warning that he was prepared to keep raising it to get us there. he was far less hawkish than the bears feared. powell acknowledged that risks are two sided. the fed needs to do enough to stamp outen flags once and for all, but not so much it inflicts

unnecessary harm to the economy. also good. in the end he told us the fed would proceed carefully. it would keep tightening, but they were going to be measured about it rather than ruthlessly raising rates. that is what happened in 2005, 2006 and it was the prelude to the great recession. it's clear that very few money managers are betting on a rate hike at the next meeting two weeks from now. i like that. we got some cooler than expected economic data last week with an updated second quarter gdp growth rate that looked like 2.4 to -- 2.4 down to 2.1, as well as early signs that the labor market might finally be softening up. last tuesday we learned that job openings fell much more than expected in july, and last friday's august report came in slightly stronger than expected. it also included 3.8% unemployment rate up are from 3.5% in july. this is a bad news is good news situation. wall street wants the economy to

cool down so the fed will stop tightening, which is why that upnick unemployment allowed the market to roar. carl and i went back and forth this morning, i say 4 is the possibility in the next few months. that doesn't mean the selloff earlier in august was totally senseless. there was a lot that went wrong from the slow rolling chinese real estate, american consumers are finally running out of steam as student loan repayments are coming back. the main thing you need to understand about august is what happened with longer term interest rates and a wild blitz that started mid-july, rose rapidly for about a month. the yield on the benchmark ten-year treasury jumped from 3.75 to a high of 4.6 in august 21st. for the past couple of weeks to 4.26%, not ideal as we saw the industrials be pummelled by higher interest rates today. investors came into august with a lot of confidence, even some

cockiness as second quarter earnings season was generally going well. inflation was coming down, and we had a recognition we weren't on the brink of a recession as we predicted on this show. but things were going so well for the economy interest rates started rising quickly. at first with no one really noticing, and then last month with everyone noticing. that's caused the stock market to get clobbered for good reason. higher rates put more pressure on consumers and businesses. it kicked off a new wave of worries about those stupid regional banks with poorly positioned bond portfolios. they were the bane of our earlier existence in march. at the same time, growth stocks always get killed when rates are rising because their future earnings look less impressive when you factor in higher rates. plus, they generally mean bond investments more appealing versus dividend stocks. rates cooled off in large part because chairman powell said the fed won't be too draconian with its rate hikes. it sure sounds like they'll be data dependent, which is

especially goods news considering we get much softer economic data last week. as for what happens next, we'll find out together. this past weekend i wrote about my outlook for september for cnbc investment club subscribers, explaining the mixed outlook for this market. i got to tell you, i thought it was required reading, i spent so much time on it. september is a tough month and this one probably won't be much different. overall, i believe caution remains warranted, at least for the time being. we're suddenly technically over bought again according to the s&p 500, although it was down a little bit today, and september is historically a lousy month for stocks. plus, the threat from higher long rates remains very palpable and very real. if the august highs for the yield in the ten-year remain high, stocks could have a chance, especially if you get a more dovish view from the fed. you got to watch out here, there are other risks out there like potentially disruptive strike by the united auto workers as i

talked about at the top of the show. the bottom line even if some of these problems materialize and stocks pull back again, possibly revisiting august lows you still don't want to get too negative on this market. the long-term outlook remains pretty darn positive now that the fed's backing off. even though i like the long-term this month could get easily very difficult. i want you to buckle up, show some fortitude, and prepare for the possibility of turbulence. "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, the big picture for a big winner off the charts and onto the band wagon of a long-time crame fave, next.

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wouldn't qualify for an erc tax refund. you should get a second opinion from innovation refunds at no upfront cost. sometimes you need a second opinion. all these walls gotta go! ah ah ah! i'd love a second opinion. take the first step to see if your small business qualifies. what's next for the stock of nvidia after its phenomenal run.

viewers know my stance on this. nvidia don't trade it, just own it stock. that's our strategy for the travel trust. i even named my dog nvidia, and then he passed away, so i named the next dog nvidia, and they have cards to be able to get ready at headquarters, i can't get in when i want to. in addition to be a tremendous long-term winner, this thing is incredibly volatile. it's easy to stick with it when you have a sense of what's coming. dan fitzpatrick, the founder of stock market mentor and host of his own podcast, the fitz factor in order to get a clearer picture of what's in store for the stock. specifically how much it's already run because there's an upside. everybody asks about this all the time. a lot of people will look at a stock are from $10 in 2016 to $118 roughly a month ago, and they figure it's got to run out of steam at some time, right? even though nvidia had another

tremendous quarter with stunningly positive guidance. fitzpatrick is adamant nvidia can keep going higher after such a huge run as long as the semiconductor industry doesn't go out of style on the wall street fashion show. even though these guys make -- the stock will struggle if professional money managers turn against the entire group. at least in the near-term, the worst house in a good neighborhood will be a better performer than the best house in a bad neighborhood. if you want to know where nvidia's headed, fitzpatrick says you need to check out the neighborhood. the weekly chart of the stocks semiconductor index is captured by the van eck vector semiconductor etf. that's the smh for you home gamers. this is one of the first ones that we when i was a hedge fund manager followed. now, fortunately when fitzpatrick looks at this picture, he sees a great pattern that's begging for an upside

breakout. not yet. after picking near the end of 2021, the index plummeted along with the broader market losing nearly 50% of its value right here. that was only nine months it was horrific. then the semiconductor index bought them. since then it's retraced almost the entire selloff and works its way back to 156. fitzpatrick points out over a nine-month period following the bottom, the same length of time as the previous decline. i am sure that caroline broaden would say that makes a lot of sense. these things are symmetrical. over the past several weeks, the semiconductor index has tested resistance at 160 several times, but it hasn't been able to penetrate it because there's too much supply at that level, in other words there's just too much selling that keeps coming in right there. fitzpatrick thinks the smh is the linchpin. if the smh can break above 150,

to keep running, so what would that mean for nvidia? let's take look. okay. let's zoom in on the weekly chart of this great company, just like the estimation, nvidia peaked in late 2001, so we got the same pattern, okay, before losing this time instead of 50 nearly 70% of its value over the following 11 months. hey, you don't get to -- the reason why people get "the exchange"en shaken out, it's because of that. the broader semiconductor space, bottoms and next thing you know this thing led the charge up and then led the charge down, and since then it's been leading the charge up again. unlike the rest of the group, nvidia's been making new highs for a while now. it's because of a couple unbelievable quarters. at this point fitzpatrick says the stock's stuk in no man's land between 400 and 500. right now he doesn't think there's any particular reason to

bet heavily on this one, but there's no reason to sell it either. you don't fold when you've not a hand full of aces. he points out nvidia's down 3% at 500. and rather than get it on board before that level has cleared, he recommends waiting. he wants to see if nvidia can break out of above 500, at which point you get very positive. that's a very technical way to look at it. over the past three weeks, nvidia's traded higher on average which tells fitzpatrick that the big institutions are still buying the stock. this is right there that up move is kind of a polygraph to see whether this move is truthful. there's a reason he -- to pound the table on nvidia, what if they can't clear that hurdle of 500, oh, boy, then there's no real support, no floor between the 480s where it's currently traded and the next t support level at 400. the only one is the ten-week moving average around 448.

if nvidia falls below that level, fitzpatrick says it's a gift to the bulls. until then he would hold back on a pullback. if you can buy another tranche down at $400, that would be better from this perspective. this is a stock that tends to have wild swings. the only problem with waiting for a selloff is very few people have the fortitude to buy nvidia into big bouts weakness. that's why i always tell you to own it, don't trade it so you don't have to think about that. fitzp fitzpatrick's telling you to trade it though as long as you know your risk tolerance and an exit strategy in case the stock starts falling apart. let's zoom out and look at the weekly chart going all the way back to 2016 where we started. you get a better sense of the stock's trajectory long-term. fitzpatrick points out you can see a long-term uptrend, it's quite a move here, that briefly the stock briefly touched near the end of 2021 right in there, if you extend that line out over

the next year or so, fitz says there's a real possibility that nvidia can hit -- you know, sometimes you hate to say this, you say don't trade on it, but he says it could hit $1,000. $1,000. meaning that it could double where it's currently trading, almost $2 trillion company. of course stocks don't go up in a straight line. run in the opposite direction, nvidia's done over the last couple of years. fitzpatrick expects the prices to ebb and flow because that's what happens to even the strongest charts. over the next year or so he thinks you can get several rallies and retracements, especially when this one tends to be the wildest trader that we know. as long as nvidia's ten-week moving average can stay above its 40-week moving average. this blue is 40, and here you go. that's a classic sign we're in bull mode, and continue to be a big winner in bull mode, you might be able to get a better

price if you wait and you're patient and get it to next dibs. here's the bottom line. the charts as interpreted by dan fitzpatrick suggested nvidia still got the capacity to be a huge winner, but you might need to be willing to go through some short-term turbulence in order to get there, andyou know what? i and yes, the current nvidia -- and i'm sure the late nvidia agree. let's take some phone calls. let's go to kevin in texas, kevin. >> caller: booyah, jim, how you doing? >> i'm doing fine, kevin, thanks for asking. how are you? >> caller: oh, we're doing well. i just had a quick question for you about my favorite chip company, amd. >> well, they gave a great presentation today at the -- at a goldman sachs conference, talked a lot about artificial intelligence and how well they're doing, and i tend to agree. what can i say? it's a great american company,

now, the chart is just that nvidia still has the capacity to be a huge long-term winner. you might need to be willing to go through short-term turbulence to get there. fortitude, that's what you need. i think he's right. much more "mad money" with commerce secretary gina raimondo. the u.s. has a sense relationship with china, involving, yes, nvidia. where is the staff our two nations right now? i'm going to the source herself after a visit. then the market has battled around fed chair jay powell's ability to contain inflation for years, but should we give him the benefit of the doubt in his approach, or is his plan just not working? i'll give you my take in the lightning round, so stay with cramer.

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right now we've got an incredibly tense relationship with china, first trump cracked down on the trade war, and biden cracked down harder. i've been a pretty consistent critic of the chinese communist party, but even i wouldn't mind if we get some deescalation because i got to tell you, we've got to make their government stick to its promises. if we do that, i think good things can happen. that's why i watched closely when gina raimondo visited china last week, and met with the minister and premier. while she remained steadfast on the advanced semiconductor export ban, something that could be good for both sides, let's go

directly to the source. let's go to commerce secretary gina raimondo, easily my favorite cabinet member right now. secretary raimondo, welcome back to "mad money." >> good morning, jim, or good afternoon, it's great to be with you. >> irs iffirst, before we get s, you have turned your office into something i always regarded to the most powerful cabinet person on issues ranging from trillions in dollars in trade to national defense and the re-creation of our entire industrial technology base, you oversee a vast well-funded apparatus, and i think that you have made it so that we can be competitive with china so i just felt we should start by saying well done. >> thank you, i appreciate that. i mean, the commerce department is where it's at. we're right at that intersection of technology and economic security and national security, and i've built a fantastic team hear, and there's a lot of work to do including the competition

with china. so i do feel at the center of so much of the president's priorities and we're hitting it hard every day to deliver. >> all right, let's about it china. we've got some export control enforcement. i know you've emphasized that we are not negotiating on chip exports when it comes to national security. but you want to have enforcement and transparency and increased compliance, that would help us. let me ask you, what is technology that is about national security? for instance, we've got a whole slew of chip companies, almost every big one that is interested in artificial intelligence. that's the most important battleground right now. is that military? is that something that involves our national security and therefore needs to be stopped on our shores? >> so it's a really good question, and this is what we spend so much time thinking of. our job and our intention here is to as narrow as possible rie

right? we don't want to control anything that we don't have to because that hurts u.s. businesses. so when we think about it, we think about, you know, is it widely available in the rest of the world, or is it just something that the u.s. produces? is it something that china can't make on its own? is it something that china needs to advance its military? i'll tell you, i'll be very honest. when it comes to artificial intelligence, we are going to err on the side of caution. you know yourself, jim, you talk to the inventors of artificial intelligence as i do. even they are a little bit scared about the destructive power of ai, and we can't let that get into the hands of the chinese military. so its judgment call, of course, we want to be transparent and honest with everyone, but when it comes to ai, it's better to be safe than sorry because the u.s. leads the world in ai. we are ahead of china. we cannot afford for china to get our most sophisticated ai

chips for its military, and we're going to do whatever we need to do to make sure that that doesn't happen. >> boy, i'm sure glad you said that. i do speak to them all, and i do think that artificial intelligence is where we are like we used to be in many different issues, we kind of lost our way. we're back and i'm glad you're not willing to compromise that. now, the commercial issue working group, you spoke to 100 business executives. it does seem like there is a desire upon our executives to do more business with china. do they share your desire to be sure that it's done on a level playing field or are they just sjust eager to get the dollars that they're willing to mcompromise? >> u.s. business leaders are practical and pragmatic. they've been doing business in china for decades. they do business all over the world in some difficult places. but they do need a level playing field. they can't operate and think if there's going to be a raid on their business and they're not

going to be told exactly what they did wrong. you know, they can't have their employees arrested for protesting or sometimes not being told why they've been arrested. so you know, the recent moves by the chinese government with their data localization or their counterespionage amendments, it's just too much, and what businesses are telling me is the risk is too high, and there are other places to do business in the world. it's interesting, i did myself personally talk to over 100 ceos of u.s. businesses before going to china, and to say that they were desperate for some kind of a dialogue is not an exaggeration. i'm the first commerce secretary in more than five years to show up on the ground in china. so i'm not going to say we're going to solve every problem because we won't, but to even find some practical solution, i have to be the voice and put it to the chinese government and give them, you know, a chance to

make some changes and show some action. >> at the same time, though, you met with premier lee, he did say that he's hoping that we'll meet him more than halfway because he feels that we have been taking advantage of him. i mean, how can there be common ground if you have a high level official who feels that we've not been an honest broker? >> well, when he said that, i pointed out to him that ally pay and union pay operate freely in the united statess, but mastercd and visa can't do that in china. media companies operate freely in the united states, not so in china. you know b, on and on and on. i was, you know, not a pushover in my discussions. and you know, you just got to take it to them. >> you did have -- and i love the people relations that we've always had with the chinese, a moment where you hugged a 7-year-old girl at shanghai disney, and i said to myself,

okay, let's start with taourism. we've cut back because of covid. we used to have ten times more business from them. obviously they would like more tour youism from us, isn't that where an easy breakthrough could be made? >> absolutely. which is why i went to disney, an iconic american brand, a fantastic park in shanghai. it's why i met with the tourism minister, let's have more flights, let's have more tourism. 30 $30 billion to our economy, also cuts down on racism or, you know, increased emotional escalation. by the way, that girl was gorgeous. that wasn't a scripted moment. i just saw her, opened my arms and she gave me a hug, and you know at the end of the day, there is shared humanity, and that's why we have to manage this hvery tense relationship s it doesn't drift to a place of conflict. >> people to people non-cynical.

let's talk about toughness. we have a 27% tariff on autos right now. i mean, if they play ball, we could cut that tariff, or if they don't, would you raise that tariff and make it so that ford, gm and chrysler have an even field? i know ford is very worried about the chinese automakers. >> so president biden has been clear about this. we didn't -- we didn't put those tariffs in place. we don't think they make a whole lot of sense. they're doing a four-year review of the tariff to see if they're effective. i don't think the administration will make any changes until that review is completed. look, the reality is china's practices of subsidizing their businesses have hurt u.s. workers. so we need a level playing field. having said that, i think the trump tariffs could have been much more strategic, and that's why we're doing this four-year review. >> excellent. now, i do want to get to a

philosophical issue, which is i wonder whether we're returning to a cold war period. i feel sometimes relations have deteriorated to the point where it's kind of like during the tiananmen square horror. do we have a tech module code word? do we just have bad relations right now? morris chang god father of all semis and a man i idolize is talking about the possibility they could do a blockade. do we have to send the 82nd airborne, what is -- if we spiral, how do we stop? >> that's why i went to china. number one is communication. even in the depths of the cold war with russia, we had communications, dialogue, fact channel. it's absolutely critical. it's also, you know, why i went to places like disney and boeing. like american soft power in the form of our great brands can help to deescalate. there's over a thousand

starbucks in shanghai and growing. so not decoupling our economy is critical, not just for our economy but for our national security. so i think there's no easy answer. you know, people ask me, do i trust china? no. but we have to have a stable relationship. we have to be practical. we have to do business where we can, communicate and have dialogue where we can and never compromise our national security. it's not simple, but we can do it, and if we do all of that, we, i think, can manage the conflict to a place of, you know, there will always be tension, but not hot conflict. >> let's leave it right there, a hopeful note in the sense that we all know what can't happen. i want to thank u.s. commerce secretary gina raimondo for coming on "mad money." it is just a pleasure to have you madam secretary. >> i love coming on the show. keep it up. >> "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up next, you, cramer, and the answers to

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it is time, time for the lightning round, playing us out. and then the lightning round is over, are you ready? the lightning round, i'm going to start with brendan in my own state, new jersey. brendan. >> caller: hey, cramer, how's it going? >> what's going on, man? >> caller: so, you know, you like to drink coffee, right? >> yeah, i love coffee. sfw >> caller: yeah, so i've been looking at this company -- i don't know if they make coffee.

i think they do something with like additive space on coffee. >> starbucks there? >> like w-e-s-t they lose money. starbucks makes money. i like to make money faster here. that's so big for the lightning round. nice fella, though. let's go to carlos in texas, please. carlos. >> caller: booyah jimmy chill. >> booyah, man, what's going on? >> caller: i'm calling today about a stock that's down 85% from its all-time high. it happens to be a cathie wood darling, but more importantly i want to know what jimmy chill thinks about twilio. >> we're going to get rid of the k-o-d aspect of cathie wood which means kiss of death. twilio in a better way, i think that twilio is aok. is it my favorite stock? no. but i don't think it's a bad stock to own. how about we go to drew in connecticut, drew.

>> caller: booyah brother jim. >> how are you doing partner? >> caller: my stock is jam smucker. >> it's okay, the food stocks are just okay, and putting that in context, it's the one that you like that's just okay. i don't think just okay merits ownership, so i'm going to say no to that. let's go to jonathan in pennsylvania. jonathan. >> caller: booyah, jim, how are you? >> i am good. how are you? >> caller: good, i am a very happy investing club member. i'm calling about a high beta stock which recently is losing money with negative operating and net cash flows. would love your input on how aluminum prices are affecting alcoa. >> i mean, alcoa, i never liked the whole separation of the company. the whole way was to get rid of the alcoa cyclicality. i'm going to say letter aa is no go, stick to batteries.

batteries work very well, i got a big thing of them from amazon. they came like this, ordered them in the morning, came in the afternoon. aa batteries, who can figure with amazon, how about that. let's go to jeff in kentucky, please. >> caller: hello, jim cramer. mega booyahs to ya. >> triple mega booyah. i'm a long-time club member. thanks for all you do and all jeff marks does for us. >> it's a triple hernia, he was all over it. what's up? >> caller: i'm calling about one of our most frustrating stocks we own, morgan stanley. should we continue to hold? >> it is so frustrating. so i debated this all last week, and i said, listen, james gorman is one of the reasons i want it, he's out at the end of the year. it's 4% yield. i'm reading the house of morgan. morgan stanley has good bloodlines, so i'm going to stick with it. that ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade. coming up, pilot powell's bumpy

ride from inflation to housing, why september will be critical for the fed next. to duckduckgo on all your devie

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when the book is written on this period, fed chief swra

po jay powell will go down as the guy who piled onto the economic plane into a course that gave you very little inflation turbulence and a smooth ride. wouldn't say a hard landing or a south landing, which is a piece of outdated wall street jargon that doesn't apply to the current moment. i'm sick of it. powell's raised rates to play for time, got our supply chain crisis sorted out, which allows him to avoid any kind of landing. goldman sachs took its odds for recession from 20 to 15%. the plane's not falling from the sky, it's just busy flying. why doesn't powell therefore get the respect he deserves? some of it's a belief that he kept rates too low too long. in retrospect, maybe he should have started three to six months earlier but when you look back there was no way he was going to start tightening until he was sure we'd more or less gotten over covid. powell proceeded with caution, which was the right approach. he started tightening much

sooner than most central bankers in developed countries. exactly what we needed to beat inflation. powell will be tested a different way soon, despite a goldilocks looking employment number, not too hot, not too cold, the bond market's become a negative factor for the economy. it's been a theme of this whole show. we're getting progressively higher long rates. i don't like that. for angs the long rates were too low. it was all viewed by these people who seemed to know better that it was a sign of impending recession. they were wrong. i argued it was a staser disas waiting to happen. those who owned it lost fortunes. they listened to no one. i was right though. as recognition that there's no landing ahead, weighs on those who made the ill-advised decision to buy those bonds and are getting killed.

they're furious selling is taking a -- another year to almost 4.6%. that means we're going to see some meaningful increase in mortgage rates heading for 8 and change and credit card rates which seem to go up exponentially on any uptick on long-term treasury yields, why i always tell you to pay those down. travel, by the way, mortgage rates go to 9%, that's going to crush the housing stocks. toll brothers down more than 5 points from its all-time high late last week. and the others have really been crushed. by the way, i predict huge declines in the aggregate companies, and they were both down roughly 3% today. they really trade on new housing projects with the robe building for these development spurring a huge chunk of the business. as i said at the top of the show, there is nothing worse for the industrials or transports than higher long-term rates. now, powell is a different tight rope to walk. he needs to make housing more affordable.

it's the last big inflation outlier, up some 40% since covid, 40% housing costs, wow. higher rates can do the trick, but at a huge cost to the rest of the economy, and that's not powell's plan. he wants homebuilders to put more homes up. it's proven to be impossible given the newfound discipline of all the builders coupled with the lack of land to build on and the myriad zone issues. powell's rate hikes have cooled pretty much everything, everything but oil which is a function of opec plus. as a huge fan of powell, i'm not willing to concede that he isn't ultimately making housing cost less. we should get a glut at this pace and a fall off in prices. oil is a function of the war in ukraine, which is not something he can control, of course. so september is shaping up as a battle between jay powell and housing. a war he needs to win with the peace that must be lower prices while dealing with pesky energy costs at the same time. i do not envy this man.

but unlike pretty much everyone else in the media, i'm giving the guy the benefit of the doubt. after all he's navigated us through since covid began. he deserves that benefit of the doubt. i like to say there's always a bull market somewhere. i'm jim cramer, see you tomorrow, "last call" starts now. governor chris christie on the record, the gop presidential candidate making his case for his economic vision for america and much more in a wide ranging live interview. a mess in the unfriendly skies, a brief nationwide ground stop for united airlines raising even more questions. why have there been so many air travel issues over the past year or two? former united ceo oscar munoz is here. call it media's last stand, the fight for your tv and your money taking an unexpected turn. the ftc writing the antitrust hammer against amazon. we'll have the breaking