welcome back to "squawk on the street." i'm sara eisen along with carl quintanilla. ahead this hour, one of barrons top financial advisering ayears run, holly newman kroft is with us. why she's still favoring fixed income. >> lazard peter orszag is with us. is m&a ready to make a comeback and where might the deals eventually happen? >> and game on. microsoft has billions riding on the success of its new xbox game which launches today. we'll talk to the company's gaming ceo about what's at stake and the latest on its quest to acquire activision. meantime, markets this morning, kind of an inverse, almost, of yesterday, where large-cap took a step ahead of small cap. today, you have some of the big naples, tesla, nvidia, apple all

down. you can see the nasdaq down more than a ercent. not such great action, either, in sectors, sara, with an echo of yesterday as well. where energy and maybe staples were the only green arrows. today it's energy and utilities. the ten-year yield is back to 4-3, which is the cycle high. the data we got this morning, also not helpful. better news for the economy, services came in a little bit stronger. but bad news for investors that are cheering on the whole disinflation story, because services, a key part of what's hot in this economy, could mean that inflation a little bit stickier than we think. and prices paid inside that services number also comes in a little bit hotter. not ideal data for the markets. we'll get the beige book later, which summarizes all the different districts across the country and gives a lot of color around inflation in services, like restaurants and theaters and hospitality. >> usually a good read we'll watch that at 2:00. our next guest, meantime, does expect a momentum slowdown, and the first-half market rally to

reverse in the next 6 to 12 months. she says look to companies with strong pricing power, low exposure to labor and commodity costs. joining us now, newburgher holly newman kroft. her team manages more than 3.5 billion by barrons, as one of the top financial advisers in the u.s. great to have you back. >> carl, thank you. >> the set-up so far, your thesis has kind of worked nicely. would you make adjustments to it if we do see growth really roll over? >> our thesis all year is that we've been cautiously watching the market. there's no doubt the market has had great run the first eight months of the year, even with some volatility in a down month in august, we're still up, the s&p 19%. global equities up 15%. but there are a lot of headwinds, as sarah and you were just mentioning, you know, inflation might be stickier than expected. we expect the fed is going to have to keep rates higher for longer.

we heard susan collins this morning say that until there is a clear path to inflation coming down, that the fed will not revert and pivot. and that's what we think at mv private wealth. and all of that will lead to an economic slowdown that we think will eventually play out in lower corporate earnings and will have to affect equities. so you have to remember, at mv private wealth, our job first and foremost is protection of our clients' irreplaceable wealth. so we have to grow their assets responsibly, without taking too much risk, and in a tax-efficient manner. and that's what we've done quite nicely. you know, my team's aum is up 15% year over year, the firm's aum is up. and we protected it nicely down year. we're growing this year. and we're going to stay the course and keep watching the headlines in the news. >> do you think -- there have been some calls this week from jpmorgan, a good example, who

argue that the rate environment, even if it's higher for longer, increases the risk of a crisis over the next 6 to 12 months. is that somewhere in your playbook? >> it could be a soft last nighting or a recession. we're not expecting a deep recession, or what you're referring to as a crisis, but we are expecting an economic slowdown. we do believe in higher for longer. and the market today is priced to protection. we're expecting double-digit earnings growth next year, multiples are trading above long-term averages, and so even if we navigate a soft landing, which has proven quite impossible in a tightening environment, historically, we are going to see expectations pull back. >> but s&p's up 16% this year. nasdaq's up 33% this year. do you worry that you miss the rally with some of these concerns? >> we haven't missed anything. we have equity exposure. we haven't been overweight equities. and we will never position our

client portfolios to be concentrated in the magnificent seven or f.a.a.n.g. we will always have diversification in our equity exposure. so we haven't missed the rally. but the equity market is not appealing right now to go into more heavily. so we're finding really great returns in fixed income and opportunities for outside returns and alternatives in private equity and in private debt. and there are some warning signs. i mean, you look at oil, the price of oil is up 10%, just this quarter. and russia has said, saudi arabia has said that they'll continue with their production cuts through the end of the year. that's a risk to a second wave of inflation. we're seeing wage inflation super high, as evidenced by all the union strikes that we're reading about. so there's a lot -- and china! what about china?! you know, responsible for 40% of global gdp growth over the last ten years. and their gdp number most

recently is less than 4% annualized. that's really concerning to us. so, we want to be mindful of all of the news. it's less fun to focus on the negative news, more fun to focus on the positive. and a client, actually, i think sarah told you this, texted me last time i was on and said, there was some woman who looked strangely like you posing as the grim reaper of the financial markets. not negative, but cautious and aware, i would say. >> and we always ask, what would make you change the allocation and get more enthusiastic about stocks? >> i would say, if the fed pivots, which we don't expect sooner rather than later -- >> to tuts, you mean? >> yeah, if they pivot to cuts, it would be more -- then we would see a market pullback and go overweight, into equities, because bond yields would start to come down. but for now, we're going to stay the course, enjoy our growth and less volatility. there's a lot of unanswered questions. >> you see at the bottom of the

screen, looking for low-cost companies. where would you say the richest minds are for companies that have done -- have made good progress with opex? >> we are real believers in any industry, you can find value companies. so we believe in active management. and in doing due diligence on every company balance sheet. we're not going to buy just a sector to buy it. we're going to do fundamental research on all of this the securities in our portfolios to try to find value. >> i know you talk about munis. is there a part of the fixed income that you think is most underappreciated right now? >> i think right now, we've been very short duration and in the next quarter, we'll start to extend duration in anticipation of the fed eventually reversing course, but we don't see that as imminent right now. look, will the fed hike, pivot, or pause? will we have a soft landing or a recession? so many unanswered questions. and we're going to, you know, read the news, listen to both of

you, and all of your expert guests, and chart our course. >> you're one of them! >> thank you. >> it's good having you on. >> thanks for coming in. >> thank you. we've got some news here on our parent company, comcast. let's get back to the west coast and our david faber who's at comemunicopia. >> it involves hulu. something that of course may be familiar to our viewers and that process by which, remember, comcast was down 33% can put to disney that ownership and force disney essentially to buy it. january 1st was when that was supposed to take effect. when basically comcast could say, hey, you're going to buy it now. it's been moved up, september 30th is now the date. so really, only a handful of weeks from now, comcast will be able to put, as it will, by the way, its 33% ownership stake in hulu to disney and disney will

have to buy it. and that is something mr. roberts shared here a few moments ago. he went into some detail of which the process itself, for which a value for hulu will be ascertained. making it clear that it is not as though you're just going to get a couple of investment banks to say, this is what it's worth based on values of the likes of netflix or multiples that trade for streaming properties, if you can even figure out any company multiples beyond netflix. he says the contract language is very close, and the appraisal process is clear in terms of, it has to be treated as if hulu were to be sold as is to value maximize the equity and it would have to be, it's considered a hypothetical sale process in which you have numerous potential buyers, and you assume that the programming being produced by both comcast and disney is in perpetuity for the

service. it's contractual language that people may not have been as focused on, but it is seen by mr. roberts, certainly, as a real positive for the potential to realize value far above the $27 billion overall floor that is in place for the value of hulu. and in fact, in a sign of confidence, that they expect to get perhaps more than just $9 billion for their one third stake, comcast has also increased the pace of its buyback, or higher run rate, going to be several billion above the current run rate in buying stock back. all of which is why that stock has moved, of course, as you can see, higher. we want to share that when we get news somewhere where we are actually attending, it's good to get it back to you. >> thanks for laying it out. david faber in san francisco with comcast shares up 1.7%. when we come back, global m&a was down 31% last quarter compared to '22. but with some recent deals making headlines, including today's energy deal, is m&a

ready to make a comeback? we'll discuss with lazard ceo elect, peter orszag. >> microsoft has pbillions ridig on the line as it tries to close that deal with activision blza. 'll talk to microsoft's head of gaming when we're back in a moment. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is. is it possible to use predictive monitoring to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too. is it possible to survey foot traffic across all of our locations? yeah! absolutely. with the advanced connectivity and intelligence of global secure networking from comcast business. it's not just possible. it's happening.

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[ cheers ] yeah! woho! running up and down that field looks tough. it's a pitch. get way more into what you're into when you stream on the xfinity 10g network. welcome back. this morning, morgan stanley out with new estimates for deal making, predicting the fourth quarter of this year will see the first increase on a year over year basis after seven straight quarters of declines.

this on the back of deal news this morning between enbridge and dominion. and last month tapestry and capri striking a deal. let's bring in peter orszag, the ceo-elect at lazard, a role he'll start october 1st, and he formerly served as the director of the office of management and budget in the obama administration. peter, it's good to have you. are we kboipg to see an m&a cutback? >> great to be with you. i think we're at one of these turning appoints that m&a has bought them out, but we need to be clear what that means. there's an increase in overall activity and discussions. it then takes a little bit of time for that to manifest itself in new announcements. and that's what the morgan stanley report was suggesting may occur in the fourth quarter. but it's also really important to remember that in terms of completions, that is deals that are actually closing, that really reflects what was happening, you know, nine months ago, or a year ago. and we are seeing, excuse me, we are seeing deals take longer to

close, mostly for regulatory reasons. >> i was just going to say, what is leading to the thaw? is it the fact that the fed is close to the end of the hiking cycle? is it the fact that microsoft and activision were successful in challenging the ftc, which could open the wave of i guess deal making? >> yeah, i think it's a push and pull of several factors. you've got the underlying drivers of m&a activity, technology, life sciences revolution, reshoring and the disentanglement with china in the greater economy. all of those are drivers towards m&a activity. and then you have three headwinds, pricing, financing, which is thawing, and regulatory. and on regulatory, things are taking longer to close, but it is significant that the ftc backed off of -- not only lost the activision case, but backed

off of the amgen horizon case, providing a little bit of clarity that there is a pathway forward to completion. and what you're seeing is an expanded willingness to consider those kinds of deals along with others and in a perhaps clearer environment. >> do you see m&a providing any type of vacuum. in other words, do they uncoil their springs in the hopes of a chang to an administration that's a little more permissive? >> i think you are starting to see, again, a turning point and lots of discussions about green shoots. but the pace of activity is definitely picking up. the only thing that people need to remember, it takes time for deals to be announced after initial discussions begin, and another period of time to close. i don't really see the election

as a big impediment right now. but if you're looking at when will deals actually be completed, there's just a natural lag in the process, and even if the regulators are being a bit clearer at the margin about what they will challenge or won't challenge, and the courts are being a bit clearer about even challenge deals, what is permissible and what's not, that still takes a lot of time. >> what do you think about ftc chair lina khan's. now that you're on the deal making side, it seems like there's news every day, amazon today reports that they're going to get a suit from the ftc. what do you think they're trying to do. >> well, she made clear at the economic club of new york what she's not -- she doesn't believe that every traction, you know, violates the statutes. i think there is a lot of

ambiguity, about whether the ftc is reinterrupting existing statutes, and that's what's leading to some of the losses in court. the result of that is what you're seeing again in c-suites and boardrooms is an expanded willingness to say, look, the ftc may or may not -- or the department of justice may or may not object to this, but if the courts are providing clarity, perhaps we can proceed regardless. we have to build in additional time for a trial and the additional cost of that, but if the odds of winning are high enough, deals will proceed anyway. and in addition to that, again, i think it is noteworthy that the ftc backed off of the amgen horizon case, suggesting, perhaps, i don't want to get too excited about it, but perhaps there will be greater clarity about which transactions will be challenged and which ones will not. >> what about the environment in washington? peter beon, regulatory ftc, i'm sure you're keeping a close eye

on the possibility of a government shutdown happening the end of the month. in your prior hat you wore, do you think this is where we're headed and do you think it will have an impact for investors? >> i think the impact of a government shutdown is much less material than the risk of the debt limit issue that we are thankfully passed, for now so, hard to tell exactly how the negotiations over a government shutdown, which involves that part of the budget that are annual appropriations. it's not quite as disastrous a situation as the debt limit would have been. but it's not helpful, in an economy that is still chugging along decently, to have that kind of ambiguity or that kind of uncertainty. and again, it just reflects the extreme polarization that has taken over washington, and is occurring in an environment in which there has been a significant increase in the budget deficit, despite the fact

that the economy remains decent. >> hey, peter, finally, i wonder where does m&a stack in the list of priorities given the attention that's being paid to things like capex after years of underinvestment and the ai chase. obviously, the cost of existing debt, we've already seen buy backes kind of suffer as a result of these shifting priorities. can it compete? >> obviously, that depends on the sector and the company, but in many cases, inorganic approaches help to accelerate, so deal making, help to accelerate companies getting to where they want to go. and i think that's again why you're starting to see some degree of momentum in the marketplace, because of those underlying drivers that i spoke about. that again can be accelerated by a deal relative to investing yourself. but it's very company-specific. there's not one answer there. >> really quickly, there's a lot of excitement around ipos now with instacart and arm. what are you advising companies

about going public at this moment? >> well, what i would say about that is i think it reflects one of the headwinds had been financing markets in general. it's not just some degree of reopening in the ipo market, but financing markets writ large are becoming, you know, interest rates are higher, but the availability of financing is becoming more widespread, and that is one of the things that has been changing over the past couple of months. and the ipo activity is a reflection of that broader point. >> got it. peter, great to get all of this color from you. thank you very much. >> good to be with you. >> all right, next time, you'll be ceo, but for now, ceo-elect. >> congrats. >> peter orszag. speaking of deals. look at next gen health care. thoma bravo's deal to take that public tomorrow. still to come this morning,

cfra expecting the ufaw strike if we get one to last for several weeks. and there's one stock they believe will be hurt the most. well discuss that with an analyst. plus, a touchdown for delta? the airline partnering with none other than tom brady. details on what an nfl player can do to bring to an rle.aiin it's not a sponsorship deal, interestingly enough. w we're back in just a moment. ( ♪♪ ) because this game is for everyone. this is cynthia suarez, cfo of go-go foodco., an online food delivery service. business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users tripled.

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welcome back. european markets set to close in a few moments. stocks mostly lower as investors focus on those voluntary oil supply cuts from saudi arabia and russia. and the message from ecb policy makers about a decision about a september rate hike is still up in the air. they've already hiked nine straight times. new data coming in this morning as well. german new manufacturing orders falling 11.7% from last month. orders falling across numerous sectors, including computers, electronics. on top of that, eurozone retail sales also come in slightly weaker than expected as well. weak data overseas and indications of resilience here

in the u.s., sending the u.s. dollar higher. it is hovering near the highest level since march, as the dollar surges, some of these currencies that are getting hit hard, japan and china are being forced to take action, or at least speak. the yuan at its lowest level, the chinese currency, since 2007. china has already sought to try to boost the currency by asking state-owned banks to sell dollars. and j.p. overnight issuing a strong warning, saying that the nation is ready to take action, apology the land decline of the japanese yen. you know forx traders. they're always going to challenge authorities when it comes to interventions. it takes a lot to intervene and change the direct and the trend of a currency. but with a weakening overseas data and the u.s., higher yields, remember, dollar usually chases yields. and the fact that there are still worries about persistent and sticky inflation, that's going to keep this trend going, as long -- until they either intervene or we change the data trend. >> at least canada held. >> canada held steady on

interest rates. maybe a precursor for the u.s. u.s. is set to hold steady in september as well, but in november it's a 50/50. microsoft launching the exclusive xbox game "star field" today as the activision blizzard deal remains up in the air. ike , so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. e*trade from morgan stanley.

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straight negative day. dow, low of the day was down 227. down 200 points. s&p 500 down three quarters of a percent. the only other sector is utilities. technology is at the boston of the list. the nasdaq comp down a full percent. higher yields, stronger dollar, stronger oil prices. not a great recipe for stocks. >> with a bright light calendar on data and earnings this week. meantime, catching our attention this morning, a trio of notes showing the street starting to worry about how a potential uaw strike later this month might affect the auto industry. first, there's jeffries highlighting some difficult talks, and then web bush and cfra, both seeing serious risks in the event of a walkout. one of those analysts joins us this morning, garrett nelson. it's great to have you. i would love to get your take, just generally on whether or not you see sort of a big three happening at once or do they go after one on a pattern negotiation? what's your view?

>> that's the big question right now. it's unclear if the uaw workers are just going to strike at one company. most likely being stem cellanis, or whether it will be all three, the detroit three, stelantis, gm, and ford. that's the big uncertainty. but we think the consensus is that there will be a strike. we think this strike could last several weeks, perhaps even stretching for months. just given that the two sides appear to be very far apart. much farther apart than last time, four years ago, when there was a 40-day strike. this appears to be much more of a divide this time around. >> you think the street's more worried about the actual interruption of production or

the result that would be in the form of higher wages or union measures, work measures, that maybe the company would not like. >> in the near-term, of course, we think the street's more concerned about the impact of production. the inventories have finally recovered to levels that are close to normal, but after a very difficult period of the last two years, when inventories were at record levels, because of supply chain issues and semiconductor shortages, they finally recovered and prices have kind of evened out. but we're -- you know, if there's a strike, we think that you could be looking at another increase in prices. and then longer term, just the magnitude of the wage increases. the uaw is pushing for wage increases of more than 40%. that's going to really impact the bottom line of those three

companies, mostly, general motors in our opinion. >> why do you say that? i was going to ask why you say gm is likely the biggest loser in the event of a strike? >> it's given their percentage of uaw workers. in 2019, when there was a 40-day strike, it negatively impacted gm's earnings by about $3.6 billion for the year, or $1.89 a share. so they just have more exposure, they're not as diversified in terms of their production base and profitability base, as either ford or stellantis, so it really would impact them the most. >> what about this posture from the head of the uaw, the president, sean fein. we followed some of his comments pretty aggressive, pretty confrontational, calls this a defining moment. where do you think that -- is it personality driven, is it the labor environment that we're seeing? the fact that they're emboldened by other strikes in other areas, like what we saw with u.p.s. and

teamsters? or something specific to the automakers? >> it's a combination of all of these things, but if you look back four years ago, when the last deal was struck, that was just months before covid. and, you know, i think the covid experience, the decline in real wages for workers is a lot of what's behind this. but fame was just elected to that position less than six months ago. and so he's really determined to make his mark in this first round of negotiations, as head of the uaw. and so, you know, all signs point to this potential being a prolonged strike. they've also increased strike pay by nearly double. so striking uaw workers will be getting $500 a week in strike pay. four years ago, they were only getting $275 a week. so that really in our view prolongs the potential for a long strike. >> hey, finally, garrett, on

tesla, you point out a net winner, although it's had some trouble re-asserting itself over the 50-day. and there's a lot of commentary this week or so, talking about, how sentiment might be at risk, given the pricing pattern and what might happen to margins. your thoughts on that? >> a lot of concern still concerning margins. and tesla really kicked off this pricing war on evs in early january, when they announced their first round of price cuts. since then, there have been several price cuts announced. but we think that given the sell-off in the stock over the last six weeks or so, we do view it as a buying opportunity. tesla, of course, is 100% non-union, so they're being viewed as a winner in the event of a prolonged uaw strike. and there are still a lot of things that we like in the story. the company's on the cusp of first production and deliveries of the cyber truck, and that's going to be a big part of the growth over the next one to two

years. they're also breaking ground on a new factory in mexico, of course, and they're still ramping up to full production, their factories in austin and in berlin. so, you know, i think any way you slice it, they are going to be a winner in terms of market share gains, both in the near-term and in the long-term. >> yeah, i think shanghai also celebrating a $2 million milestone production. garrett, we'll see what happens as we get closer to the 14th. thanks for your time. >> thank you. >> also want to mention that uaw president shawn fain is joining "last call" tonight. >> one more note that caught our attention this morning, bernstein's bud light's tracker, five months since the campaign with a transgender flinfluencer sparked boycotts. with volumes for the week ending august 26th down 30% from last

year. meantime, bud light's competition continues to reap the rewards. bernstein indicating that we could see larger than usual share gains for molsin coors. really have not seen much of a rebound. there looks to be more lasting damage to this brand. >> it's hurt the whole category. by the way, td cowan does upgrade constellation on some share shift. meanwhile, microsoft's head of gaming is next on the reaelse of its game "starfield" today. that's coming up next. don't go anywhere. you need to hire. i need indeed. indeed you do. indeed instant match instantly delivers quality candidates matching your job description. visit indeed.com/hire

welcome back. wall street's buzzing about tom brady teaming up with delta this morning. our phil lebeau has the details. phil, has a strategic adviser, what does that mean? >> i know, some people have already said, is this a made-up title? but he is a strategic adviser, has a ten-year contract with delta. his focus will be on leadership initiatives he'll be talking with delta executives as well as delta team members, on a periodic basis, applying what he's learned over his years becoming a future hall of fame quarterback into what they can learn as they apply leadership lessons at delta. earlier today, we talked with him on "squawk box," along with ed bostion about how this arrangement will work out. >> very fortunate to join the

team and working with all of the employees and, you know, continue to help inspire people to grow great communities and teams of people and companies and i've been very fortunate over the years to be a part of a lot of those. >> the one thing that got me about tom is he talks about doing things the right way. everything with tom is doing things -- that's why the patriots were so successful. they did things the right way, consistently, everybody was in, it was one way. and it was the right way. and that's what we need to be doing. >> by the way, as you take a look at shares of delta, we should point out that ed bostion believes that this is an agreement, a partnership, that will pay benefits for delta. he understands that there will be some people sit there and say, you've got a glorified pitchman, that's it. and he says, no, we believe that we can impart some of tom's wisdom to our kpexecutives and

will make us a better airline. and it's a ten-year agreement. >> you can see why that would rally the troops, depending on what your mission was. really great interview this morning on "squawk." more broadly, i've got to get your take on the southwest guidance about leisure bookings in august. a two, three-month low. the xla almost a four-month low. we know what oil prices have done. >> you have a double whammy hitting the airlines right now, and southwest touch upon this in terms of its guidance. you have seen a pullback in terms of leisure bookings. not surprised about the delta muse. if you've noticed their promotions, lately, they've been sending out initiatives or offerings saying, buy this fare, friend can fly for free or a discounted fare. you can see they're looking to stoke the elm embers with regard to leisure. everybody's guidance has gone up. we heard from united today, we're hearing from other airlines. you will see all of them raising their cost expectations for the third quarter. nobody, so far, has cut their

expectations in terms of earnings for the third quarter, but if oil continues to move higher and jet fuel moves higher, you can be certain that there probably will be some pullback on those estimates. >> does tom have to fly commercial, like a certain percentage of time? >> we asked him that today. he said, sure, you know, and i have to imagine that -- >> once in a blue moon. >> i have to imagine that there will be some element to flying delta here and here. >> all right, good. i'm glad you asked the important stuff i was wondering about. phil, thank you. phil lebeau. >> meantime, this carriage dispute between disney and charter is heating up as disney unveils this new promotion to boost streaming growth and se om of the biggest names in media weigh in. more details on tech check when we're back after the break in two.

disney is trying to boost growth amid -- with an aggressive promotion amid this ongoing standoff with charter over the contract fees. our julia boorstin here to break it all down. what it means for the future of tv in our tech check segment. >> well, sarah, disney's battle with charter is being called an existential referendum on the future of the tv bundle and a lot of other ceos are weighing in. comcast ceo brian roberts, that's cnbc's parent company, discussing it today at the goldman sachs comemunicopia conference saying that he's not surprised while every company is dealing with their version of this transformational moment.

the consumer wants simplicity and the most bang for their buck and this dispute is putting tension around some of those issues. meanwhile, paramount ceo bob backish commenting saying a dispute like this seems inevitable and that he's been focusing on modernizing par mount's distribution deals to offer their streaming product as a tiered offering for paid tv subscribers. so all of this comes as charter is pushing to get access to disney plus for its subscriber base without any additional cost. so all of this and this conversation about disney versus charter comes as today disney slashes the price of disney plus with ads to $2 a month. that's a 75% discount for new and returning disney plus subscribers. and that's a discount for three months. it's a promotion that's been in the works for a while, unrelated to the charter deal, but it's part of disney's big push to get new subscribers to adopt this plan that gives it a dual revenue stream. disney is pushing its ad option

as today madison and wahl forecasts a 5% increase in u.u.s. ad revenue. that's excluding political ads. that's a return to normalized growth for u.s. advertising. but not all ads are equal. while internet-related advertising, they say, has become increasingly important, the tv advertising sector is experiencing what, quote, might feel like an existential crisis. now, on top of accelerating cord-cutting, there are concerns about how the strikes will impact new content, what that will mean for viewership, and ad dollars, and of course, the ability for all of these paid tv bundles to hold on to subscribers. carl? >> it's just amazing, what's going on in the business right now. when it rains, it definitely pours. julia, thank you. more "squawk on the street" after the break. every day, businesses everywhere are asking: is it possible? with comcast business... it is.

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welcome back. microsoft launching its highly anticipated exclusive xbox game today, coming from bethesda, acquired for $7.5 billion in 2021. our steve kovach joins us now with the executives behind the launch.

steve, over to you. >> reporter: and joining me is phil spencer, microsoft's gaming ceo, and todd howard, director of microsoft's bethesda studio. thanks for joining us. phil, i will start with you. >> thanks for having us. >> reporter: going into this launch today, the stakes are huge. we're nearly three years into the xbox cycle. still haven't really seen a big critical and financial success on the xbox side of things. what are the stakes here for starfield? is this the kind of game you will think will drive more console sales and subscriptions, phil? >> well, we're definitely seeing huge demand for the game. the game has just been in preview. we've had more players for any nextgen exclusive than we've had this generation. today is when tens of millions of game pass players are going to get to play. it's the most wish listed game we've ever had between bethesda and xbox on steam.

big game releases are a lot of fun, and it's great to be a part of it. >> reporter: todd, you've been working on this game for the better part of a decade now. it's out now. what's the reception been like? and is that translating into people logging on today and downloading and playing starfield for the first time? >> i mean, it's just incredible for us here. it has been a long journey. i'm in the studio. we're overjoyed with the excitement about the game and getting in people's hands finally and really with our games we build these gigantic worlds that transport you. it's when everybody plays the game it really comes alive. we're excited, the games we've done in the past have been played not just hugely at launch but for years and years. we're going on 12 years so we couldn't be more excited today. >> reporter: phil, that leads into my next question for you. this game starfield is an exclusive to xbox and pc. there were people a little upset they wouldn't be able to play on

other platforms. acquire studio, maybe keep the legacy franchises alive. we know you plan to do that with "call of duty." but should we expect to see starfield on other platforms ever or what we should expect moving forward, new games from acquired studios exclusive to xbox? >> you use the term exclusive, if we look at it today, people on xbox series s, affordable console series x, the most powerful on pc and via cloud, and cloud enables any web-enabled device to play starfield. this will be available to hundreds of millions of people on devices they already own and looking to make this game as accessible as it can be to players. >> maybe still exclusive, though? >> the game is available on so many different places where people can go play. definitely on the console, on

the xbox series s or x and we see great demand for the console and the game on the console. >> reporter: that's all we have time for. thank you for joining us. carl, sara, i'll send it back to you. >> steve, thank you. steve, we'll talk to you for a moment about that last point. this was a sticking point in the ftc and all the competitor complaints against microsoft acquiring activision that they would take names like call of duty and launch exclusively on their platforms. i know they made a deal on call of duty, but it was an interesting question you posed. >> reporter: an interesting answer, sara. he said this is what they see as the future of gaming is this netflix streaming game series. instead of downloading or buying a physical copy can you stream it and play it anywhere, so you notice phil saying -- not admitting they're not going to put it on other platforms necessarily, but you can stream

it to your android phone and play it that way. that's where they're pushing people to. this game is launching, if you don't want to spend $70 and you're a subscriber, you can play it now. it's included in the subscription. we'll see that more and more for xbox. it is a big bet and will be an even bigger bet if and when the activision deal closes. >> the timing of any gaming decision, it's a little bit of a stretch. if you were to say the strike lasted for a very long time, content dropped. churn gets going. it will be incrementally good news for gamers, i would have to imagine. >> reporter: we had zelnick on and he said possibly. he's seeing it in his industry a little bit, hollywood's loss could be video game's gain. it's not perfect like that. these games come out few and far between, not the same cadence as network tv or netflix.

it is very possible if the strike keeps going on and on, games fill in the hole for sure. >> nice to have you downtown, steve kovach. the dow down 204, 4460. mike santoli is here. >> the inverse of yesterday, the average stock is doing better than the s&p 500 today, the equal weight is actually only modestly down after getting slammed yesterday. so it seems like another one of these rates, because it's funny, the sort of negative photo print negative of goldilocks, because goldilocks is not too hot or too cold, but when you're in that zone, when that's your expectation, you fear both the heat and the chill. and i think that's what we're doing at the same time at the moment. yields bumping higher. there's the six month of the s&p 500 versus equal weight. s&p still below early february but the overall market has still been kept afloat by the big caps.

on the other hand, the one-year t-bill making a new high. it's not really the one that we've emphasized but we're talking about a year from today, the best guess is we're at 5.5%. that means another hike by the fed, certainly not a cut priced in based on the t-bill yields and we have to struggle with whether the economy can sort of swallow that. >> it's weird, on the one hand, you have hotter data like services, which you don't want to see it hotter there. that's a big source of inflation. and on the other hand, weaker data, mortgage applications today. some of the comments i pointed out from retailers. that's sort of the not best case scenario where the economy is worse and you have this kind of stagflationary environment. >> at the moment we're dealing with both of them from a decent starting point. a little bit of a headwind with gasoline prices.

it does create pressure upward. >> the strong dollar doesn't help either. >> interesting note out of bofa on student loan payments, they think it shows the consumer was ready for it and they've made the adjustments and may mean less down side risk for spending from here on out. >> i saw some consumer surveys, yes, they were deferring, there was this long leadup where maybe it's not going to be a big blow. i don't think anybody thought it would be the thing that really sank the story. it's much more about that piled on top of other things that seemed like they were all pushing in the direction of a little bit of a restraint on consumer spend. >> the beige book at 2:00 p.m. and anecdotes about what different regions around the country are seeing on pricing pressure which does remain the number one question for this economy and what the fed does next and the markets which is can disinflation continue to

come down. >> if the numbers themselves cooperate, we're not going to worry about a hot services number. that's the secondary piece. >> the ism survey is not exactly the fed's focus. >> you could say price paid, commodity prices are up a little bit. >> we'll watch that and work with what we can given the light calendar on earnings and data. let's get to the judge. carl, thank you very much. welcome to "the halftime report." i'm scott wapner. front and center this hour, the slight in apple shares and what it could mean to the market overall if that stock continues to pull back. the investment committee debating it. joining me for the hour today, steve weiss, liz young, joe terry bradshaw and brian belski. take a look at the markets. we have our eyes on a number of different, important places. the nasdaq is the biggest loser. it is down by more than 1%. you have brent above 90 for the first time this year. the dollar at