and think they're worth -- i don't know, maybe they find the promotion isn't what they thought it was going to be. >> thank you, kareem, by the way, for bringing my tissues. >> fix my ifb early in the show. he does it all. >> oh, man, don't give him a promotion though. >> don't promote him. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. kelly, thanks so much. welcome to "closing bell," i'm scott wapner live from post 9 here at the new york stock exchange. this make or break hour begins with the selloff, whether it is nervous time again for investors. let's get right to your score card with 60 minutes to go in regulation. we ask because it's been a pretty rough day for all three major averages coming off the lows but nonetheless in the red across the board, a big reason why only the biggest stock in this market, it is apple. those shares under pressure, as news from the eu and china weigh heavily on that stock today, there it is. it's down just about 4%, all of it happening less than a week

from the big iphone event. obviously that is taking a toll on the nasdaq too, so are interest rates. they jumped after another economic report came in a bit hotter than expectations. if there's a bright spot, it's energy again. that sector higher. brent topping 90 bucks for the first time in 2023. there's the xle. it's gone negative. it's right at the flat line. we'll watch that closely, takes us to the talk of the tape. whether this month is going to live up to its billing and if megacaps like apple might be more vulnerable than you think. let's ask adam parker, the founder and ceo of tri variant research, and stephanie link, both cnbc contributors. adam, i'll go to you first. i'm going to break it down real simple, don't trust any stock rally until oil prices and bond yields fall. right now oil prices are going up and wreelyields are going up. is it as simple as that?

>> i think there's perception about growth and rates and some combination of those two always drive where we end up. today people seem to be worried about the rates thing. we could all sit here and say they should have been worried about it, i don't know, 95 of the last 100 tdays. it's always some cadata point tt triggers. >> hotter than expected data means higher than expected rates. i think that's fair. >> the earnings part, the growth part to me has continued to surprise to the upside. the 2023 earnings today are as had high as they were at any point since february of this year. the earnings expectations usually come down and they've actually come up a little wit both for '24 and '23 over the last few months in part because of the megacap tech stocks. i think it's the p, the price to earnings ratio, and i think that's because of cramer's view, you know on inflation and how the fed's going to deal with it. >> what about, you know jim as

well as anybody the way he thinks about the market. oil has been going up. it's, i don't know, seven straight days, eight straight days, something of that magnitude. now brent above 90 for the first time as we said this year. is it as simple as jim lays it out, don't trust any rally in the market as long as oil continues to rally itself? >> that could be but i want to take the other side and say that oil is going higher because growth is actually beating expectations. the atlanta fed tracker right now is running at 5.6% for the third acquired gdp. that wasn't supposed to happen. everybody started the year thinking 2% would be the high water mark for gdp, and we've done nothing but go actually up, and that has led to better than expected earnings, and that has led recently to a broadening of the market. i'm excited about better growth, i know people say is good news good news or is it bad news? i think 5.6% is probably not going to end up at 5.6%. we know that. even if it's at 3.5 or 4%, that is good, that is goldilocks for

earnings and companies that have restructured over the last several years. >> even if it means that rates remain elevated, more so than the market could bear, it obviously plays into the multiples that you're willing to pay on the market, whether we judge things to be too expensive or not. s >> that's why you're seeing a rotation. when rates stay higher than longer, you don't want to own long duration assets. we know the actual opposite happened, long duration assets like tech and growth did well. now you're seeing the reversal, and i can tell you that energy and industrials, even some discretionary, those valuations are -- i can stomach them better than -- they're not cheap, super cheap, maybe energy is, but i would say that they're much cheaper than some of the big tech and growth companies out there. >> okay, so let's talk of valuation, right? you're a statistics guy. you do the numbers, you see what the number are. can you justify -- let's just take megacaps, since we kicked off the show talking about this

apple slide, if you look at the historical average of apple, it's much lower than the forward p/e than it's trading now. the forward p/e is much higher today than it was at the beginning of the year. the growth rates on revenues are much lower than they were a year or so ago. can we justify that? what does it mean? >> if i'm trying to beat the s&p 500 in a long only portfolio, i have to look at names like apple and view them as risk management and not stock picking. why? there's 60 sell side guys, let's say 4.2 million buy side guys who cover it. it trades very macro, so it can explain a lot of its returns statistically from macro factors. i basically can't know anything about it that anyone else knows. it's going to be hard for me to be a cold-blooded stock picker and pick apple. i think it's a risk management issue. i think that's largely the case for microsoft, tesla, google, meta, that cohort of stocks. i would be close to market weight that group in trying to beat the s&p. >> so you wouldn't be overweight

mega cap. >> i would be close to that and try to make my alpha elsewhere. within that i could say i like the fortunes of, you know, maybe the dream of microsoft more than -- and google maybe more than apple. we could go there and trim 1% below apple and wone above the other. i want to be close to index weight because i think it's really hard to know things that other people don't. i could have said to you ten years ago apple's only going to grow their income 9 or 10% year, they bought back 40% of their shares. there's reasons it's up. i agree with the aggregate. it's basically the same size as the energy sector, and i certainly would rather own energy for the next five or ten years than apple. >> i would never be 7% weighted in apple. >> you're underweight tech relative to where the market is and relative to a lot of other people. >> sure, but i have been adding on weakness to broadcom last week when it fell on its earnings, which i thought it was ridiculous.

i added to lam research. both of those companies are trading at 20, 21 times earnings and i like the prospects for equipment bottoming and in terms of broadcom, my goodness, you have a great diversified revenue base between ai and cloud and networking and they did a great job and their balance sheet is phenomenal. i will make those bigger really big to offset my junderweight i an apple. >> your voting answers my questions. your buying answers my question. you can't look at megacap valuation and get your arms around it enough, so you're looking for growth elsewhere within tech. >> absolutely right. that is spot on, right? cbw is a new name for me, right? ibm is a huge position for me. i do have technology. i've made them bigger because i don't own the big seven. i do own two out of the big seven, but i think that that's how i create my alpha. i understand what adam's saying, you want to just market weight them, i just think that's not as much risk management because those are big bets that you're making in your portfolio.

>> i would say hard to agree with more than 80% of what any human being says. i think over the last few years steph and are in the 70s range. i'm just talking about purely from risk management, not alpha, not to get too technical with the crowd, but when you're 6% under in a name, in my parlance that's tremendous risk. when apple goes up 9% in june and adds 270 billion market cap, there's nothing you can do to -- i don't care how much of the other names you own, you can't make up for that. nothing that correlated to it. it's not that reputable. >> people on the wrong side positioning this year learned that lesson the hard way. >> that may well be the correct call. i wouldn't dispute that. i think in aggregate, semis are a different kettle of fish. they're more reputable, and there's a longer term strory i

think we both agree with. >> i have issues i want to get to with both of you regarding the market. i want to bring in our steve kovach, it's good to see you. news out of china, government officials not being able to use the iphone at work, et cetera, and then, you know, news out of the eu as well, and then questions about the valuation, steve, which you know, you look at too. historical averages versus where it's at today. >> yeah, and i think the eu is the most important story h happening right now, scott. this designation that the european government gave under this new law going into effect next year, it goes after apple's you know, high margin businesses. the app store is at risk here. imessage is at risk here. imessage is the lock in that keeps people upgrading to a new iphone every time instead of switching to android. all these pieces of apple's walled garden are starting to be cracked down by the european commission and basically it's

forcing apple's hand. next week we're going to see this in action, actually. apple's expected to change that charger plug on the bottom of the new iphones because the eu put out a regulation saying they have to start using standard chargers. so that's going to be a global change, but we're also going to see most likely apple having to start to split up its software so there's a different version of the iphone software in europe and a different version in the rest of the world, and this is going to impact not just apple but five other big tech names that we talk about so much. this is a huge law, and then on the china side, you know, this seems like a tit for tat thing for me. ly i will note that the chinese company huawei put out its first new smartphone in years in part because they found a way around some u.s. regulations and sanctions keeping them from building those phones. huawei's downfall in china was the main reason apple saw so many people switching over to iphone over the last couple of years. so not only the government

officials using it, but consumers having that huawei, that home grown chinese option again is another risk for apple. there's a lot going on today. we see apple down 4% today, scott. >> you laid it out great. i appreciate that very much. on that note, the other thing that we're going to find out next week is just what the iphone, the new one is going to price at in "the wall street journal" in an article today that apple is going to push the the limits and you're going to see a price increase there. it leads me to what the beige book was talking about, adam, of not an hour or so ago. some districts report consumers may have exhausted their savings, reported higher credit delinquencies and the like. do we need to start worrying about the consumer, the thing that has been holding this market up arguably more than anything else? >> i think if you do you ingest a couple of hundred variables, macro variables and try to gauge where we are systematically. no matter how you do it, what it will show you is the consumer's in good shape but slightly eroding. in aggregate, i don't think you

can say it's in bad shape. i don't think you can say it's falling off the cliff. if you look at jobs, wages, credit card delinquencies, you take all the data in, the consumer in aggregate is in above average shape but slowly eroding. rising oil could be a fear, the housing market, there's things you could point to that are getting worse. but i don't think you could say in aggregate, the consumer's in bad shape, whether they pay 5 grand apple charges for their products. i'm joking. >> we'll see, we'll see, but i don't think that the -- back to the point earlier, this is the part that statistically is hard for me. using valuation in some time horizon. you get very long-term -- years three through ten. one month for now saying apple's ahead of history, instead of going over average. that's trickier. >> we still have a tight labor market. initial claims are the leading indicator. the four-week moving average is

237,000, and keeps surprising to the better sigh, to the stronger side. that's number one. we just got an ism services number that expanded 180 basis points month over month, new orders accelerated, employment accelerated, so i think the consumer, sure, maybe there are parts of the consumer that are starting to crack a little bit. i'm not hearing from many companies, not all companies, but many of the companies that i own, especially on the discretionary side, but it's the services that continues to have the momentum. 70% of consumption is services. that's why we care about services. >> some of the retailers, whether i think nordstroms, macy's, you might not own them, but they've talked about rising delinquenc delinquencies, and things of the like. >> those businesses are -- those businesses are structurally screwed, and they're not like economic barometers. you know, one of the things we struggle with is let's look at the dollars. like the big dollar things. >> these are delinquencidelinqu >> but not everybody saw them.

>> when you're looking at the small retailers, i think a lot of them are -- we talked about this a few months ago. it's the shrink. it's the financing arms that are eroding, it's the growth in urban areas. they have some challenges. 25% of the things we do disagree on in the past has been target, which i think is at the epicenter of a lot of issues, but i think if you look more broadly, again, i don't see you can look at the data and see the consumer is in bad shape. >> there are winners and losers. >> that's a good point. liesman, two hours ago maded distinction that anecdotally, you're like, okay, that sounds bad and you agree the data would suggest otherwise. >> yeah. >> so which is right? >> i don't want to own a dollar store, right? . i don't want to own a department store other than target because i do think it's a special situation. walmart is crushing it. tjx is crushing it, ross stores is crushing it. nike even is crushing it, even though it doesn't get the --

>> abercrombie is crushing it. >> there are winners and losers. >> you've got to look at the dollars, amazon and walmart are 600 billion in annual revenue. if we pull out something with a billion in revenue and say it missed because people are stealing their stuff, it's an apple, oranges kind of thing. >> i want to get back to steve kovach, let's talk about it before we get back to another headline i want to bring up and discuss with the group. what do we know? >> yeah, so this is a lot of analyst chatter. i know "the wall street journal" wrote about it today, and bloomberg did have a more credible report a few weeks ago, but basically saying the pro models, the more expensive when they are announced next week, they're going to cost 100 bucks more. there are a couple of things to say here to contextualize this, one analyst chatter, we're not -- it makes sense, apple has done it before, raised prices on iphones. they've proven they can raise prices on iphones and people pay up. and two, they're also -- last time i talked to tim cook after their last earnings report, he told me demand for smartphones

is falling off a cliff, oi'm putting words in his mouth, saying it's a really tough environment to launch a smartphone as demand continues to fall. so it will be interesting to see if they feel like given that pressure they can raise it 100 bucks. at the same time, we're heading into apple's first quarter after this month is over, remember, it was a year ago they couldn't make enough of the iphone pros to sell because of all those covid shutdowns in china. so the comps for that first quarter of their fiscal '24 are to look a lot better, and it might not even matter if they raise the prices because people are willing to pay up for the pros. it's going to be really interesting to see if the analysts and supply chain whisperers got it right. >> steve kovach, as we look and try and debate, discuss the trajectory of the market over the next say couple of months. there were -- there are some concerns out there that marko kolanovic, jpmorgan had a note out today, a looming crisis.

all the stuff that the fed has done is yet to really be felt. it's inevitable that there are going to be some issues whether it's a credit event, tightening of credit is going to have an impact on consumers and businesses. there's another headline today that i saw, quote, real estate doom loop threatens america's banks. they're talking mostly about regional banks. their exposure according to "the wall street journal" is more substantial than first thought. you guys were kind of smiling as i was reading that. steph, i'll come to you first, your smile was bigger than a adam's. >> that's genetic, not environment but okay. >> are these concerns overblown? are we too complacent about looming risks? >> i think there's a lot of underlying momentum in the economy, and i think we can handle a little bit higher rates for longer. are we going to slow? yeah, we're going to slow, but i think earnings are going to hang in there. i think earnings have troughed in this past quarter, doing a remarkable job on the margin front, on restructuring, and if

demand hangs in there for certain parts of the market, not all, like the consumer, like manufacturing, like energy, i think that we're going to have volatility, but i think that's opportunity, so to me onto banks, i worry about the regionals. i do. we've had 519 closures of banks since 2009. i do think the big banks are much better capitalized, right? the big six, and they're going to take market share, and they already are taking market share. >> yeah, i know, but the stock -- like market share, reserves, all this stuff hasn't translated. >> they may not be good stocks. >> why not? the economy, you guys keep arguing is good, better than people thought. >> regulation i think is a big overhang and the amount of kamt t capital they all have to raise as a result of new rules, so i think there's a lot there. but i don't think that they're going to blow up and fail, not the big ones anyway, but the small ones i do worry about the real estate exposure for sure. >> and you think that, you know,

adam if there are issues with regional banks the market is just going to brush that off? >> i'm 100% in line on this point with steph. i think, first of all, every big firm in the last year calls like 17 in the last zero down turns, so i just can't listen to you tell me every week there's another big firm crapping on the market saying it's about to go lower. could be. when i made that call -- >> forget that call. >> i lost credibility after the 16th time i said it. >> go with the real estate. if there's looming risks with real estate, and are there real worries about regional banks like steph has. we already had a pretty good earthquake as it relates to regional banks. the fed came to the rescue and the market recovered in two seconds. >> i do think tightening financial conditions causes a slower economy. i think some of the readers are more at risk. i totally agree that the economy could be fine and earnings could grow some next year versus this year without the banks being great stocks because of the reasons we've talked about. they invest a lot in productivity, and it doesn't occur to the shareholder.

it manifests itself generally in service for the end user. some reviewers, do they love calling some of their banks to get things done, no. right? you could see them do okay and be not great stocks, depends on which one. if you're saying we get more scare on run on regional banks, i don't think that's in the current set of concerns for the investors that i talked with. >> last point to you, steph, real quick before we go on that issue. >> i mean, look, i think that the capital requirements are substantial, and that is a really big headwind, but that's a good thing. we want banks to have excess capital. the big six have a ton of it, and billions. i mean , over 500 billion. it's a big number and i do think they're better positioned. if they go -- if one fails or two fail, the market's going to go down, and that's why your opportunities are elsewhere in the marketplace. >> we loved it, guys, thank you. >> stephanie link, adam parker, steve kovach, thanks to you as

well. it's back to tech, do you think the nasdaq's going to finish september positive or negative. you can head to @cnbcclosingbell to vote. a check on some top stocks to watch as we head into the close. and kristina partsinevelos is here with that. >> i got to talk about amc shares, they're shaking off the recent enthusiasm over taylor swift's movie as the company announces plans to sell up to 40 million new shares. it's the latest development to send the stock lower. when i say lower, that's an understatement, down almost 38%. this is coming after the conversion of api shares into regular amc shares. shares are down roughly 80.% in the last month or so. aerovironment is soaring after the drone manufacturing smashed. hiking its price target to 128 bucks from 95 currently trading right now at 115.87.

they cite strong demand and a big backlog stemming in part from assistance to ukraine. be sure to tune in in the next hour for an interview with the ceo who's going to come up at 4:00 p.m. eastern. scott. thank you. we'll see you in just a bit. up next, the fed front and center, new data and commentary from several speakers today shedding light on the inflation situation. looks like there's more work ahead for chair powell as well. we'll break down the numbers and what's at stake for your numbers. we'll do it next. we're live from the new york stock exchange, you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. young lady who was, >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by truist securities, experience expertise execution. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself.

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hedge funds, leslie picker is here with that. what do you know? >> hey, scott, so we know that the broader equity markets down in august, not so for some of the bigger multistrategy hedge funds out there. i got ahold of some performance numbers. the multistrategy fund was up more than 2% in august. the long shored equities fund was up more than 2% in august and 9.5% year-to-date. this according to a person familiar with the numbers who asked to remain anonymous. now, while the s&p isn't necessarily a perfect benchmark for these strategies, the index was down 1.8% last month, so cit citadel's monthly returns outperformed the broader index. that was also the case for some of citadel's peers as well, despite losses in the broader equity markets. i'm told steve cohen's 0.72 up

almost 7% in the year through august and de shaw's composite fund is up about the same amount through the year through august 25th, sources say. citadel 0.72 and d.e. shaw declined to comment. multi-strategy funds which usually involve a bunch of different strategies under one umbrella have been increasing in popularity in recent years gathering assets and may overtake long shore equity. >> thanks. as you're reading the citadel numbers, if i recall correctly, and you'll know if i'm wrong, they were up better than 30%, i think, last year. in a down year for just about everybody, they bucked that trend and had a really great year, didn't they? >> yeah, they've had a couple of really good years, which is kind of the why that strategy citadel in particular and others have been growing so tremendously. a lot of them are close to new investors, but obviously the returns help, and the strategy itself has become one just given

the diversification, the incentive structure, and the talent that they've been able to acquire has been a growing pocket of the hedge fund community for several years now, and just the environment where there's so much uncertainty out there when you've got the diversification all under one roof, under one umbrella. it's been very appealing for lps that are out there. >> i remember having this conversation with ken griffin at dr delivering alpha last year. look forward to being there again. fresh data out of the fed along with commentary from boston fed president susan collins bringing the inflation conversation front and center yet again this afternoon. let's get to steve liesman with more. so there's a lot of stuff going on today, steve. the first thing i want to discuss is the beige book with you. as you made a great point earlier, i thought that data versus anecdotes, they don't match. >> yeah, that's right, scott.

what we found in the beige book is they found economic growth was moderate. we're tracking the gdp number that's 3, 4, some say 5%. beige book said retail spending outside of tourism continued to slow with some districts reporting consumers may have exhausted savings. we had retail numbers that have been off the chart. also in the beige book, higher consumer credit delinquencies, job growth was subdued. price growth slowed overall. that does seem to be comporting with the data, and businesses struggled to pass along costs. that told you that profit margins probably fell. you have that ism service index more in line with the data. 54.5, forecast 52.5, all the major components were strong. new orders along with employment that gave the market a scare this morning. price component ticked up, not a good sign for a fed focused on inflation. you can see in that chart, we're well off the peak levels a year ago. all of this, the unevenness prompting fed officials to be,

you know, reserve their optimism when it comes to inflation. we had susan collins this morning saying the fed is going to need to hold rates at restrictive levels for some time while the fed may be at or near a peak, further tightening could be warranted. where are we at? we have 47% on the chance that's up a few points this morning. september, though, below 10%. you can relax a little bit this month. >> it does, though, steve make it potentially more difficult or tricky, i suppose is a better word for the fed in terms of what do they believe? they believe the data ? they believe the anecdotes in their own beige book. how do they form late the decision-making process out of looking at booth? >> i think a couple of things. first of all, the beige book may be giving us a little bit more flavor from the august data. we don't have a lot of august data. this is anecdotal data from july and august. maybe the beige book is a touch

more contemporary. but i think the fed is positioned in a way that it doesn't have to decide. so it may be confused by the day tark data, but it's got a full, i don't know what you want to -- it's got a july, august, september. there's time for stuff to sort itself out. >> yeah, and mike, mike santoli is here as well, our senior markets commentator. the market is going to have to look at both of these and figure out which one it want ths to believe. >> or reserve final judgment and remain unable to relax about anything. either the fed being fully done done or the economy able to power through. i think this is always going to be where you're headed in terms of we knew the fed was in the vicinity of being done, well, a month, almost two months out from the next potential fed decision it should look like a coin toss. and that's what the odds give it right now. so i feel like the disinflation

without the economy buckling is still the overarching premise for why the market has held up this year. it's not been invalidated but you're not at the destination either. you haven't had the clinching arguments either way, and so we sit here and kind of ping-pong back and forth between what are we more worried about? is it yields because of overheating as we thought it was going to be or is it yields are higher because the economy is a little more fragile than we thought and we have to deal with that. >> good stuff, good conversation, steve liesman, thank you, mike, i'll see you in just a bit, mike santoli. trading the tech turbulence, that sector is underperforming today in the face of several headwinds. how should we navigate this uncertainty? we'll ask flexo capital after this break. and don't forget to register for delivering alpha. we'll have can't miss interviews, a sit down with pershing squares bill ackman, the qr code is on the screen.

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welcome back to "closing bell," tech stocks underperforming today, the sector set to snap a seven-day win streak as the group contends with regulatory pressure, historically high valuations, rising rates. joining us now at post 9, cnbc contributor lo tony. great tosee you again. >> thanks for having me. >> apple down 4% today, we got issues in the eu, china's banning government officials from yugz thusing the phones a work. how do you view both of those things? >> i think we also need to talk about global demand in general for smartphones slowing down. analysts are expecting the orders for the iphone 15 to pull back slightly. then we've got the concerns as pointed out on the eu and just thinking about the vertical integration that apple has used

to create this mote, which without question has helped to increase their valuation, but no apple responding to pressures and pulling back on of all things yet another connector, right? but this chose that, you know, the eu is saying, well, look, you're playing outside of what else is happening, and we want to see parity, and i think, you know, apple succumbing to that pressure just shows that they are sensitive and understand just based on what we've seen happen in the eu and other areas, they need to be sensitive, which is going to have repercussions across the board, and then not even to mention china and what's happening there. i mean, that's pretty profound, just kind of thinking about just an outright ban. that's going to obviously, i think, that's not the end of where china has its eyes set, and we'll continue to see pressure, which has been a great market for apple to be able to -- >> i think it's 20% of revenues j that's right. >> just from there, so you can't really afford a major issue over there. >> no. >> especially not at a time where you're talking about smartphone orders pulling back,

where your already in an environment where their revenue growth is much slower than it was not a year, you know, not to mention two years ago. >> right. >> yeah. yeah. and they have some serious concerns. i think all of those things together kind of where we're landing is what is putting a little bit of pressure on the stock. now, we've got, you know, announcements coming out about the new hardware, the 15 next week or whenever the -- >> next week. like five days or six days from now. >> yeah, and we'll see, you know, what happens and how people react to what is expected to be a price increase of around $100 or so, mainly on the pro. >> so how should we think about valuation? do you think we make too much of it? you obviously focus on valuation in everything that you do, whether it's a startup investment or what have you. the stock is well ahead of its historical average. >> right. >> the stock is well ahead of where it was at the beginning of the year. i mentioned where growth rates are for revenues. >> mm-hmm. >> we're worried about oare

iphone numbers going to live up to what the expectations are. how should i thinkabout valuations or all of those scenarios? >> i think that is the right way to present a framework, to think about valuation in light of everything that we've seen that's putting pressure that we really haven't seen at least converge at the same time around apple, and i think that will put pressure on valuation. we do need to -- and i think people that have a longer term perspective will likely say, okay, we've seen situations where there's been a little bit of turbulence in the past and apple has always managed their way through. i don't know if we've ever seen quite this many issues to address head on that present the headwinds, but i think long-term investors probably are thinking ahead to the future, when i think short-term traders are going to be a little bit concerned about their position. >> are you still asked all the time about whether you're at a cocktail party or walking here at the stock exchange, hey, this ai thing, is it as legit as the stocks would make you believe it is? and how do you answer that question today now that we've

been in this -- i don't know, you want to call it a phenomenon for six to eight months at this point? >> yeah, i just had a great conversation with an executive at one of the big tech firms that's one of the leaders in the space. we were just talking about how this truly is another platform shift. historically when we've talked platform shifts, even when it was going all the way back 20, 30 years, and you know, computers the size of this trading floor that now have the same computing powers in my hip pocket, right? we've historically seen those as hardware, but this is something a little different because ai is really more of a software shift. i think it's tougher for people to get their arms around it. we're in the early innings. i think we're going to see great success in the things that people do on a daily basis whether in their personal lives or professional lives. we talk professional, think about the marketing folks that have to do this work maybe 60% of their job is doing lower level rote tasks like writing copy for emails and i can handle

that freeing people up to do more value add things. once we begin to see more of these use cases that are tangible, i think when we look to how this can improve consumers' lives and being able to manage a task like setting up a trip, booking a hotel, once people start to get their arms around that, the fascination has happened. genie's out of the bottle with open ai and prompts, now we need to see tangible use cases. >> we are in the epicenter of capitalism, new york stock exchange, ipos getting some whiffs of wuns coming down the pike. arm is obviously the biggie, but there are others. are we about to get back to any semblance of normalization? >> i think so and this really is a good sign, arm is obviously going to be a bellwether. look at the perfect and see what happens. we do see the pricing coming in a little bit lower than what many people had anticipated, even coming in a little bit lower than what soft bank qu

acquires some shares from their vision fund even a month ago. if we see performance hand and will hold the price, i think we're in a good position for the other companies to come out. >> come back more often in person. good to see you, joining us back mer here at post 9. we're tracking the biggest mov movers. it seems like t-mobile investors aren't impressed with the newly announced dividend. there could be some good news in the pipeline to help that share price. i'll explain it all next. ♪("please don't go" by harry casey, richard raymond finch)♪ >> announcer: the bond report is

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less than 15 from the "closing bell," let's get back to kristina partsinevelos for a look at the key stocks she's watching. >> t-mobile is in focus as it announces a $19 billion shareholder return program through the end of 2024. that will include stock buybacks along with its first dividend payout. the yield is much lower that what competitors verizon and at&t are offering. shares initially dropped, you can see on the news just after 2:00 p.m., but are coming back up ever so slightly. but still down 2%. solar stocks are under pressure after morgan stanley trims price targets on several names that include big players like sun

po power. they're upgrading first solar. they say there are still long-term risks in its profile margin. >> kristina, thank you very much. last chance to weigh in on our question of the day. we asked will the nasdaq finish september positive or negative? head to @cnbcclosingbell on x. the results after this break. ...before you even step inside? ♪ discover the magnolia home james hardie collection. available now in siding colors, styles and textures. curated by joanna gaines. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received.

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the r. the results of our question of the day, will the nasdaq finish september positive or negative? the majority of you said negative. 52%, in fact. up next, semistocks are slumping. we'll tell you what's dragging that sector lower as we head into the close. that and much more when we take you inside the market zone.

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custom scans help you find new trading opportunities, while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market. e*trade from morgan stanley. ♪ we're in the "closing bell" market zone, cnbc senior markets commentator mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day. btig's jonathan creme ski on what he says is a bearish setup for restaurants heading into the fall, and kristina partsinevelos digging into the big moves in the semi space today. >> a little more focus on the potential downside risk to the consume consumer getting a little bumpy. seems like the prevailing driver today. i would say it's more indecisive, kind of lack of

action more than anything else. there's definitely some pressure on big cap tech, apple going down, how many times do you have to say it wasn't going up because earnings expectations were going up. it was going up for its own reasons. giving some of that back, and i think that we're testing the yield sensitivity of both the economy and the markets as the ten-year comes to 43. >> jonathan krinsky, watching crude oil today, and i know you are too but your note is about restaurants. the title pumpkin spice season not so nice. and it is related to what you think is going to happen because oil prices have risen. >> yeah, hey, scott, good see you. yeah, so i think if we look at the restaurant sector, the russell 3000 restaurant sector, it peaked on may 1st. it was up a about 15%. and at that point it's only up about 5 right now. i think it's no coincidence that right as the restaurants were peaking, crude oil was putting in a bottom. it actually put in its intraday low on may 4th. we've seen crude oil move to the upside, restaurants move to the downside, and now they're

starting to break some key, you know, technical support levels. if we look at the restaurant sector as a whole, it's below its 200 day moving average, which is starting to flatten out. and it just broke its august lows. i think there is some vulnerability to the restaurant sector, even if crude does take a bit of a breather here, i think the wheels are set in motion for further weakness here. >> who's most at risk sm. >> it's fairly broad based. we highlight darden, brinker, dave & buster's, yum brands, denny's, jack in the box, those sort of names. but you know, you're starting to see weakness across the board early. it makes sense. we're seeing some signs across the consumer, whether it's retail or, you know, some of the -- some of the consumer finance names, so you know, it's really -- it's really pretty broad based and i think it's starting to broaden out even more. >> okay, thank you. jonathan krinsky, now to kristina partsinevelos again on semis. what do you see today? >> we know the chip stocks are moving lower, are moving the

nasdaq lower, nvidia's among the five worst nasdaq performers. it's down about 3% last i checked right before the commercial break, yeah, 3%. there's no particular news catalyst. however, to date, microsoft announced it would be backing ai startup dematrix which designed chips like chatgpt, it could be seen as competition to nvidia at least in the future. nvidia is on pace to snap a three-week win streak. i have to point out, it is conference season and many of these chip leaders are taking to the stage. intel, for example, its shares reversed course after its cfo took the stage at a citi tech conference earlier today to say intel's third quarter is tracking above its midpoint, specifically data center business is expected to be lower quarter-over-quarter because of customer inventory reductions. it's tracking better than anticipated. other notable movers, amd is about 1.5% lower and 18% off its most recent june high.

yesterday's ceo lisa su expressed confidence in hitting near-term targets in the data center. it was a little bit higher yesterday, could be some selling off, the key focus, though, will be how these stocks hold up throughout this week as many chip companies provide updates at the sell side conferences. >> thank you. back to mike santoli. you know, this 4% slide in apple makes the market look weaker. i'm not saying it's a good market by any stretch. apple's decline makes it look weaker than it really is, if you look under the surface because of the drag it's going to have on the dow, the nasdaq and s&p 500. >> a 4% drop is going to hurt, although yesterday again it was sort of the inverse because the market looked better than it really was below the surface. yeah, apple is basically responsible for more than a third of the net decline in the s&p 500 today. it's also the only big stock that's trading any real volume today. i definitely don't really defer to volume in saying that explains away the action. last week was a low volume

rally. this week is kind of a lower volume pullback, waiting for perhaps a little more critical mass of some of that data and for people to get back to work, but it is certainly a lack of momentum and a lack of demand and we're in this kind of muddled area where we never did really launch off those lows from mid-august and get anywhere. and so we're still just sort of, you know, kind of as i said earlier fighting it out. i feel like last year's decline, you can look back and say, okay, we've got 25% down, nonrecessionary bear market, it was correcting for some valuation excess or some speculation, you had an inflation spike and a fed scare. whatever that priced in sort of expired in terms of pricing in economic weakness from here on out. that's why the market is sort of caught in between what to worry about, whether it is persistent inflation or that growth gives a way a little bit. >> more than a quarter of the dow's decline today. it's more than $50 worth out of

the dow because of the decline there. well, the dow speaking of, about a 200 point decline, maybe will eke out a little bit lower than that. we are right across the board as the bell rings. that does it for us, i'll see you tomorrow. into "overtime." stocks lower with back to back losses for the dow and the s&p. that is the score card on wall street. the action is just getting started. welcome to "closing bell" overtime, i'm morgan brennan with jon fortt. it is another jam packed afternoon of earnings. we're moments away from results from c3.ai, we're going to bring you all the numbers. and an exclusive interview with c3.ai kratom siebel before he talks to wall street analysts. we'll speak to the heads of two other companies, the ceo of

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