d and be bold. that's all for this edition of "dateline." i'm craig melvin. thank you for watching. [music playing] ♪ good morning. welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines. china's trade slump eases, but exports dip for the fourth straight month as beijing pushes through policy measures to help support the ailing economy. basic crresources lead loss with the seventh straight session in the red. this is another disappointment

for the european economy and the industrial output falling more than expected. london stock exchange group plunges after investors sell 43 million shares netting a 4$4 billion pay day. and andrew bailey questions how much higher rates need to go telling lawmakers the end is in sight. >> not saying we're at the top of the cycle. i think we are nearer to it on interest rates on the basis of current evidence. good morning. welcome to "street signs." another day and another round of chinese data. let me bring you the highlights. china reported another trade slump in august, although imports and exports fell less than expected. exports declined by 8.8% on the

year. this is against july's 14.5% fall. meanwhile, imports declined 7.3% year on year which was better than expected. asian equities turned red today. this is the reaction we got on the key indices. hang seng dipped 1.3% in overnight trade. shanghai composite trading weaker to the tune of 1.1%. despite the fact the trade numbers are better than expected, but still in negative territory and it tells you the trade picture continues to be quite merky for china as we talk about the trade structures. speaking of structure headwinds, let's go to the price action in the property stocks. we are looking at a different picture. property stocks have soared in recent days as beijing helps to

rekindle demand and prop up the property sector. many stocks, penny stocks. evergrande is trading at 0.6. country garden trading at the dollar mark. we are coming off a very low base as this country grapples with many property sector woes and authorities try to step in to shore things up to boost sent sentiment. >> to talk more about what is happening in china, duncan ridley is joining us. thank you for joining us with the latest on china. we got fresh trade figures overnight and the data is negative, but not as bad as feared and showed a marginal improvement versus july. do you think we have seen the bottom in terms of trade activity? >> i think we can get a little

over excited looking at the headline figures. what is driving that is the base effect and the fundamental situation is it is still weak. the rest of the world with things looking softer in the u.s. europe is quite weak. if you filter out some of the base effects. the underlining trend is still falling. the prospects are it will keep falling the rest of the year with the mild moderation. we will not see a sharp turn around. >> i was speaking to what seemed like a rare china bull yesterday who made the point that the narrative on the outside can be more negative than what is happening on the ground and the example they gave was how much the narrative has focused on the youth unemployment rate. 20% figure is a record high. it is 16 to 24 year olds.

it is not representative of the whole picture. i wonder how the picture on the ground differs between here and the western media. western markets, excuse me. >> i think you are slabsolutely right. the narrative tends to be very ext extreme. balance sheet recession. is china becoming japan in 1990? things start turning around a bit and i think we get the opposite extreme. what is happening on the ground in china is we're getting a bit of a recovery. things are pulling around a bit. it is way above the expectation of the international an markets. consumption has picked up in certain areas. people are not spending as much as before. investment is ticking along with the notable exception of the property market, of course. what we are seeing and what china's leaders have broadcast

what they expect is this torturous drawnout recovery and it is not smooth and stable as other countries, but it is still happening. when things start to slowdown, we are also seeing beijing ready to step in to provide a bit more support as we have seen with the property sector over the weekend. >> let's go back to the trade numbers we were talking about at the top of the show. one of the mistakes is analyzing them from the aspect of china alone. it is trade. you have to think of the other side of the equation coming at a time where now we can analyze european data. u.s. is in soft landing territory. growth is moderating there. to what exttent are external forces impacting china's prospects going forward? >> we should realize the

external demand is weak for the rest of the year. on top of that, in addition to china, during the pandemic, chinese exports benefitted in the one-off way because it was a last factory standing in the world at some point and people were buying computers and work at home goods and devices. all of the things you need to work at home and now what you find is global consumers have too many of these things. i think we will see the structure falloff and we are seeing that in demand for electronics and those things. that will last a bit longer. >> a lot of the economists we speak to flagged goods disinflation has been pronounced for that reason as a function of the pandemic. in terms of policy response, what steps are you anticipating from authorities in the next couple months? what other measures could we

see? >> i think the measures we will see in the next set of data next week when they start seeing lending data and the real economy and investment data means we will see a pickup in some of the traditional investments. infrastructure, manufacturing investment. i think there will be acceleration. acceleration of that with local government p bonds which will feed into innvestment for the year and then on top of that is the property sector. support for the home sales in tier one and tier two cities. the question he is whether that is sufficient to turn around the broader property sector and to cushion the financial sector with country garden. not direct beneficiaries of the recent support. there is a possibility, perhaps

a likelihood depending if confidence picks up that china will add a bit more support directed at some of the lower tier cities as well as some kind of developer funding measures to ensure risks areduncan, let's w the oil price. we could see oil reach triple digits near term. what does that mean for the chinese when which is a huge user of energy and oil. >> if you look at the import data, the volume is basically flat. it is picking up slightly. the value has shot up 30% because of the price effect. that is going to be additional cost for china. china deciding not to passes that on to consumers. they decide not to raise the petrol gas prices recently.

i think the cost of that will be absorbed by the importers and processing sector in the initial phase. so, you know, that is an impediment. i don't think it will completely change the sort torttor torttortured recovery. >> duncan, thank you for joining us. duncan wrigley, economist from pantheon macro. more for on the china trade troubles and what it means for the second largest economy in the world, head to cnbc.com. apple is ticking lower pre-market falling a bloomberg report that chinese authorities plan to extend a ban to government backed agencies. that comes on the back of the report that said some chinese government agencies banned employees from using the devices at work which sent the u.s. listing on the sharpest decline

p in a month. >> i remember this time yesterday where you were flagging that story. it could be market moving for apple and it was. let's go to broader markets. a lot of red on the board for the heat map. stoxx 600 is tracking losses of .20% for the day. this after another day of losses for wall street yesterday. a lot more cautious sentiment in global market despite the better than expected ism services numbers from the u.s. yesterday. we are piecing together the trade numbers from china. not as bad as anticipated, but still in contractionary territory. we talk about the slowdown in growth as well. lots of things for the market to digest. to central banks, we have key central bank meetings. we have the ecb and the bank of

england coming up. this is the picture overall. n ftse mib is down a bit. cac 40 is down .60%. ftse 100 is slipping down today down eight points. the couple of things we are watching for are house prices which have fallen most since 2008. we had comments from the bank of england governor andrew bailey. inn ssinuating we may be close the peak. in terms of sectors in europe, this is where leadership is coming from. health care up .25%. construction and material up 8

points as well. that tends to be a cyclical sector doing better than you think on the day where there are declines across the board. basic resources are in focus because of the knock-on effect from china on the day when chinese equities are in the red. basic resources at the deepest under underperformer. and i would say some of that is a knock-on effect from the apple story that julianna was citing for technology sector. there is a curb of apple iphones. that sent apple stock down yesterday in u.s. trade. it is having a knock-on effect today with the apple suppliers. one other stock we are watching is the london stock exchange. lsge investors raised 2 billion pounds from the overnight share sale. the group, which includes bl

blackstone annuald wall fund hen 8% stake. they are planning on a further sale. that has had an impact on the stock today. it is down 1.6%. another company we are watching in the uk is smurfit kappa. they are discussing a potential merger with west rock. the combined company would be called smurfit westrock. it would delist from dublin to pursue a single listing on the new york stock exchange. reaction from the market has been negative as they had results last month and the market reacted quite negatively on the day of the results. switching to the oil complex, shell is planning to put solar storage manufacturer

sonnen up for sale. that is according to the german newspaper which said it could fetch a value of 1.8 billion euro. four times the full year sales estimate. cnbc has reached out for comment. we are going to take a quick break. coming up on "street signs," eu doubles down on big tech to create a safer digital space. we will hear more from the market commissioner thiey rr breton after the break.

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with welcome back to the program. european union designated six gatekeeper under the market act. alp alphabet, amazon, apple and bytedance and metaylvia has bee digital services act. who have you been speaking to with this? >> this all started in december of 2020. now we are seeing the rules being implemented.

that is what this story is about. the dig tital service market ac was put forward with more detail yesterday with the sense of the six gatekeepers. what this means is these big companies will have six months to comply with these rules. practically speaking, this means users will have more choice in europe. things the companies have to put forward is they won't trade their services more favorably than others. users will be able to install all of the software that comes with the phone that you don't necessarily use, you will get rid of those apps. these are just some of the changes that will be taking place in the coming months and i asked the european commissioner thierry breton what they are hoping to achieve with the rules. >> this is the first time we are

doing it. it is important for these companies that we now have six months to comply with our rules to give more freedom for users to select your own apps and you are not a prisoner from the platforms and you are able to compete and ensure that when your companies are not "stolen" to platforms to compete unfairly. this is what we are putting in place in europe. of course, we have specific obligations and rules. you should have revenue of $75 billion of market cap and 10,000

users or 45 million end consumers. of course, we have specific rules for all services. some are of use. some we need more time to ensure that these companies comply with the rules. we are now starting this morning the process. >> i notice that there's an investigation on the imessage on the ipad. in general, you consider apple the tbig gatekeeper. do you think apple is too big and should break up? >> i don't speak on this company or that company. it is not my -- not my job or mission. i even njoy to be able to offer successful companies to have the ability to enter into our market, which is, by the way,

whether in the united states, which other companies can benefit from it. we have rules. if these companies are big, it means that they have been successful which is good. there is a but. with the new rules, you have some sanctions. that's business. it has been voted by our panel and if these companies do not comply and i hope they would comply, then we have the ability to fine up to 10% of the global revenue worldwide. even maybe this is done up to 20%. if they continue, we have tools to break up the company.

i would never want to use it. i can tell you the discussion we have with the companies. >> so thierry breton there. there is a lot of homework for the big companies. failure to comply with the rules could lead to fines ashigh as 10% of their annual turnover. a lot at stake here. >> certainly is. such massive companies in the mix. sy sylvia, thank you for the latest. sticking with tech, apple reached a chip technology deal with a.r.m. through 2040 and beyond according to the filing to the s.e.c. apple will have access to the piece of the core property which is used in the iphone and m mm mac chips. this moves as the chipmaker is set to debut on the nasdaq this year. interesting story, joumanna, and

following on from the conversation this week about the potential investors in the a.r.m. listing. we have confirmation that apple and a.r.m. have signed up for the partnership. this has to be seen as good news for a.r.m. they secured this company. >> on the infrastructure and technology services that a.r.m. has to offer. apple is not in it for the ipo, but the long term. it is a strong deal of approval for the company as we talk about the anticipated listing which should happen in the next couple weeks. they have a lot of talk as we have talked every day this week on the show about where the ultimate valuation will land. so far, the news at the beginning hasn't been so positive in the sense that what we have been hearing from the

street is expectations of where they will list will be lower. this news is positive news. it is on the right track. >> it is not just apple which is potentially in the mix here with the long-term relationships, but also the cornerstone investment in the same filing. we heard dpoogoogle and intel a samsung have expressed interest. tsmc hasn't decided if they will do ahead and ininvest. elsewhere, tencent revealed the artificial intelligence model for business use hunyuan. emily tan spoke with the business group and started by asking how the model is being

marketed. >> we will provide that service to enterprises for different industries to build applications and access the model. we are also providing integrating the hunyuan service with our products and services such as tencent meeting and wechat search as well as our collaborative tools to enhance the user experience with a.i. capability from hunyuan. >> your responsibilities are to be enterprise facing. can you tell us how the model is used across the ecosystem? >> the general purpose language models might not be tailored for specific industrial use cases. we actually put in extra effort

to build industry specific language models for various industries such as financial as well as public services and internet service providers such as customer service settings. we believe many different customers would benefit more by leverages open source models and use their own enterprise data to train for their own models to meet their specific needs in their industry use cases. >> for more on the a.i. race in china, emily tan has put out a piece online. head to cnbc.com for the full

read. and coming up on the show, the bank of england governor andrew bailey yssa there is still more work to do. we will have the latest after this break. has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com.

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welcome back to "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. >> beijing pushes through a wave of policy measures to help support the country's ailing economy. basic resources lead losses as european equities line up the seventh straight session in the red with u.s. stocks set to follow them lower. and chinese government is banning iphones at work and may send the measures further to take a bite out of apple in pre-market trade. bank of england governor andrew bailey questions how much higher rates need to kgo tellin lawmakers the end is in sight. >> i'm not saying we're at the top of the cycle, but we are

nearer to it on interest rates on the basis of current evidence. we started out the session today firmly in the red. we bounced off the lows and we have some patches of green. cac 40 is up 15 points. the ibex 35 in spain is trading higher. still in the red for the ftse 100 and ftse mib and dax lower to start out the session as investors digest the data from china overnight and the comments from governor bailey that joumanna cited in the headlines. speaking of the comments from bailey, let's look at sterling. we have a glimpse from the headlines. sterling down .30% to $124.66. we have come down away in terms of the trade. euro is trading weaker against the u.s. dollar.

107.11. the dollar on the back foot against the yen at 147 mark. in terms of yields, treasury yields rising for a second day in the row with the rate hike bets for november. here is the look at the german 10-year bund at 2.6%. gilt trading at 4.47%. our next guest says inflation will remain sticky putting pressure on the balance sheets for years. we have robert joining us from the jpmorgan chase conference. robert, good morning to you. we talk about higher inflation on company's balance sheets for the foreseeable future. are credit investors compensated for the risk?

>> thanks for having me on this morning. our view is the credit investors are not come ppensated for the risks in place at anthe markets. there is a stark difference with the public market and private ma markets. we see the tighter end of the range with the extraordinary qe and credit boom. the market is pricing in a very benign forward environment which doesn't sit easily with the lower growth outlook with higher for longer interest rates. we already see the start of the demise of the credit cyscycle. >> let's unpack that further. where are you seeing that?

are you seeing dlelinquencies pick up? is this company specific cash flows? is this credit tightening that is beginning to have knock-on effect in the sector? where are you seeing the warning signs? >> that's a great question. i think we are seeing it in micro and macro factors at the moment. the default rate is picking up from low levels. it is picking up. that is noticeable. the second part is recovery rates are coming in very low in this cycle. if something does default, people are losing more money which is always a strong tell. the other big part of the puzzle is how weak financing flows have been over last year or so. we do see things like loan officer surveys saying credit is harder to come by on the main st street. in the capital markets, we have seen less refinancing activity.

all of that is saying is the flows of capital are not coming in with new, fresh money to refinance that old debt. a lot of the sector issues you can unpick beneath that. we see deep cyclical issues in chemicals destocking and paper and packaging margins. secular shifts as well. that interplays badly with the amount of debt companies have on the balance sheet. if you are looking for cyclical slowdowns or sectors of secular issues, thosemacroeconomics factors sit badly. we have to remember that corporate defaults are a lagging indicator. companies don't take on board their first quarter of higher interest costs fixings and say let's default. they may wait several quarters. they wait for suppliers to

change terms and competitors to begin price wars and things like that before restructuring the balance sheets. what is telling is we are seeing the slightly higher default rates and lower recovery rates before the economy really rolls over. >> what happens between now and then when the default rates really pick up in terms of those sectors you mentioned? chemical sector in particular. what are we likely to see in terms of pricing between now and then if we are not seeing that pick up in defaults? >> i think the way the credit market tends to operate is people think it is a forward-looking indicator, but it spends a lot of time looking at what is happening right now. it is quite feasible that the credit market displays its usual format of a gradually and sudden dynamic which is spreads can

re-price quite materially in a short period of time. we could actually see as we wait for the default cycle the to emerge, you could see credit spreads stay at the corurrent levels. the credit market has had run characteristics when it starts to deteriorate. a company looks at perhaps the suppliers or customers look at it and you see the domino rally effect in the sector where you worry about the counter party risk of the people you do business with every day. that's why you tend to see working capital shrink in the sectors. that's why you get more of a sudden shock as it emerges. we are less concerned with the exact timing of when default rate emerges. we are also less worried about where spreads are in the interim

because they are already pretty tight. that's were we're more focused on the forward and being positioned for that. the lens we have on the market from that perspective is we do two things. we buy distressed debt and the other is positioning in shorts in the single name credits we think will topple over. at the time when credit spreads are tight, we are actually able to put on more asypriced spread. >> robert, thank you so much. really fascinating to get your insights today. the cio of the credit fund at polus capital. uk house prices fell at the fastest pace in 14 years last month ofdown 4.6% for the year.

the slide was greater than analyst exs expected. speaking of rates and inflation expectation, i want to bring you the results from the survey from the bank of england. just to give you an idea of what the companies surveyed are expecting with inflation. these companies see year ahead cpi at 4.8% against july's figure of 4.5%. that is encouraging for the bank of england. w one year expectations are hedging down. three-year cpi at 3.2% against july's 3.3%. short-term has been dropping. as for year ahead wage growth, we are seeing steady at 5% per the latest survey against the july figure of 5% as well.

>> in terms of reaction to the news of rates, sterling has fallen to the three-month low after andrew bailey said the monetary policy committee could be nearing the end of the hiking sp path. bailey set out the monetary policy committee's view amid falling inflation. >> this is not a comment on what we will do on the next meeting. there was a marperiod where it clear where rates needed to rises going forward. the question was how much and over what timeframe. we are not hiking at that pace any more. that is why we shifted language to be much more evidence and data driven. we thought that was important. we introduced in august the point that we think policy is now restrictive. i say that because i think the judgment is now much finer.

i think i understand your point, as it were. i think we are much nearer to the top of the cycle. i'm not saying we're at the top of the cycle because we have a meeting to come. we are nearer to it on interest rates on the basis of current evidence. >> he agrees with bailey's assessment of the rate hike path. >> i don't think we're at the top yet, but close to the top. his read is a good one. we know is there a lag with pushing interest rates up and the impact on the economy. there is a danger from undeunde under-reacting and overreacting. >> are you seeing cracks emerging in. >> cracks too strong. there is a tightening of the economy and growth is not where we like to be in this country or abroad. getting that right is really

important. growth is the source of value that helps people pay their wa wages -- get their wages and pay their bills. >> i'm going to plug x or twitter. if you go to my home page, you see my profile is a picture of me interviewing andrew bailey. the reason i bring this up is to plug our show and also to remind viewers that i don't think the bank of england governor said anything new of. he said they are close to the end and maybe they will have one or two more. the fact he insinuated we are near the end shouldn't be considered as new material. what is more telling is the likes of the comments which are

similar. it tells you the committee has started to turn cautious in light of the drop in headline inflation levels we have been talking about. >> i wonder and i love to hear your take on this, to what extent the higher oil prices could affect the trajectory from here. a lot of the downward pressure is because energy prices have come off. >> i think it will take time for that to be factored in again. we are heading into winter and socgen lowered the price cap which is another reason we are getting the base impacts on where headline inflation is heading. you have to see how the winter is shaping up and if we are witnessing soaring energy costs again. in light of what with we have been talking about with the oil prices moving higher again and potentially shocks to lng and gas markets could be factored into the winter and where inflation is headed.

for now, i would say they are taking comfort from the fact there are signs there is wage growth moderation and signs that services and price inflation is easing. as we have been talking about for months now, it is higher than any other economy. >> speaking of wage inflation and you made it clear that is the biggest problem for the bank of england in many ways and the pmis we had showed the pace of hiring has slowed in parts of the uk economy. perhaps you are seeing some signs that wage pressure may begin pto ease in a meaningful way. >> the bank of england governor was asked how to get back to the pressure. he said we can continue with the hiking cycle and hike a couple more times and then cut or stay where we are right now and stay

for longer. this is the thinking. it is a tradeoff do they hike more now and cut later or stay higher for longer. i think they are coming to the view of stay where they are for a lot longer than markets were pricing in. >> that clarity will be welcome if that comes to fruition. still ahead on "street signs," we have the interview with alex phillips davies with the late st on the engyer sources. that is coming up after this break.

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welcome back. sse ceo has called on the uk minister for energy to hit the ground running. he told cnbc this autumn will be vital ahead of the general next year. arabile has been covering the story and speaking to the sse ceo. tell us more. >> this was very interesting. they have been trying to find a way to ensure that businesses are not spooked. there is enough support coming

from government and enough money laid out and investments in the energy transition. let's remember the net zero goals for the uk are 2050 which is the data signed in place by the energy minister in 2019. the same chris skidmore said 100 areas of the uk transition to net zero are just not keeping up to pace. it has to do a little bit more in that regard. davies points out there is more support from government and the question marks around funding have always been a major part of the conversation because there is a sense from some lawmakers, particularly across the aisle, as well as some people who follow this space as well saying there might be a reluctance or lack of appetite in delivering

what are difficult policies when it comes to climate change. he does say, however, davies, the ceo of sse, there are people interested in investing in the space and they could be very helpful to the growth of the area. this is what he had to say. >> we are seeing issues. we have seen issues in the supply chain with the companies who with manufacture the big turbines announcing difficult financial results in recent weeks. you also have seen companies pull out of the auctions and one in the uk and big write downs in relation to the u.s. one is an interest rate hike and the capital you need to earn on the investments and the supply chains post-covid are feeling the pain around that. we need a reset to understand where prices are and what can be

delivered. those are the big things that are happening. this autumn is a great time to sort that out and particularly when with you have the autumn statement and the new secretary of state and department of net zero. hopefully she can hit the ground running and help us move forward. >> what is not happening here? you spoke about the elements you highlighted that are helping and making this a better transition. what is not working? >> i think earlier in the year, while we were pleased the government was moving forward on the carbon capture, i don't think they moved forward fast enough. there is a lot riding on autumn. i think i hear moves and desire about the offshore wind areas. will we do enough on flexible generation and long duration storage and hydrogen and carbon

capture needs to be addressed if we want the energy system we need by the end of the decade. >> arabile, it is interesting to hear what he has to say. i think i have been doing a lot of reading and it is not just about financing, but the bureaucratic procedures these companies have to go through to get permits. the backlog is long. it takes a long time to get anything approved. what do they say about the bureaucratic side of things? >> you have two ministers in the space this year. you had the minister for energy security and net zero on the 7th of february this year installed. last year, there was another installed in the space. you have two leadership bands who may want different things for the sector and how you get things done is difficult.

phillips-davies says he hopes the new minister will hit the ground running. that is difficult to do when she has to understand the space and perhaps pander to the right base. there is a sense of feeling because some of the auctions are not taken up as well as they are, there is a lot of bureaucracy and red tape. people are not able to scrjoin on the conversations. they want to be part of it with the appetite, but the problem is too much red tape. >> i suppose growing pains with the new industry. arabile, thank you for the interview. let's shift gears to the pharma space. estimates from novo. jpmorgan chase increased the target by 25% and believe it is could capture half of the market by the end of the decade. a position worth $33 billion. the bank sees the stock reaching 1,500 krona by the end of the

year. it is a two-horse race as this point with eli and noro. >> just think capturing half of the market. think of it in the context of the tech company. anti-trust regulators coming after them. this is what you shoot for. this is the moonshot. they are reaping the rewards. interesting to see jpmorgan chase out and they see further 25%. >> two catalysts to drive the shares forward. detailed data for the heart association meeting in november and the supply of wegovy. >> that has been well flagged. >> a story we will follow on "street signs." a quick look at markets as we round up the show. look. we turned positive. the hand over was negative from asia. the european indices have turned

things around. we have cac 40 leading the charge up .40%. we have the dax up seven basis points now. >> let's see wall street. dow jones industrial average joining in the rally two points. we are still traeading water. on a programming note, u.s. colleagues will discuss the economy and the banking sector with goldman sachs ceo david solomon. don't miss that interview at 22:15 cet. >> i look forward to watching that one. >> it will be a late one for joumanna. that is it for us. thank you for watching "street signs." "worldwide exchange" is up next.

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is the "five@5." the september slide with the nasdaq notching three straight days of losses. the pull back may continue today. the fed's latest beige book revealing the strong signals the economy could stall out as they gear up for the next policy meeting. and economic woes continuing in china as fresh data reveals another month of trade troubles. plus, dpoogoogle looking t