it is thursday, september 7th, 2023 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick with andrew ross sorkin. joe is off today. it is thursday of the. >> -- thursday. >> we are working through. >> take a look at the u.s. equities this morning. the dow futures are up. the s&p futures and nasdaq futures are down. the s&p futures are off 10. the dow off 25. nasdaq indicated off 80 points. by the way, we have seen three days in a row of losses for the nasdaq. not just this week, but friday

last week, too. you are looking at losses that are modest at this point. starting to add up. all three averages down 1% for the week to date. if you want to see what is happening with the treasury markets, yields have been lower. the 2-year treasury is just below 5%. just barely at 4.99. the 10-year treasury at 4.27%. we will talk with lee cooperman this morning. he will talk about how he thinks interest rates will be higher for longer like the fed has been saying. he has concerns about the idea of where the equities market is versus where yields are on treasuries. >> still overvalued. >> overvalued. relative to the risk you are taking and what you can get for your money. he is buying stocks. we will talk about where he sees opportunities. he does have concerns about the market. >> a lot of concerns.

that's what has been the deal. we have new data from china overnight. exports falling by 8.8% in august and imports fell 7.3%. imports have fallen every month in 2023 from the year ago period and exports have fallen every month since april. on the same topic of china, tencent launched artificial intelligence model for business use good atoday. it released an a.i. chatbot for video conferencing and social media. this comes after chinese regulations on generative a.i. policies took effect on august 15th. there was a question if china could catch up with us on genege generative a.i. and how it is supposed to think and what you can and cannot say. look at how this competes with

open a.i. and the other american platforms. >> go ahead do generative stuff, but you cannot mention 1, 2, 3. >> i don't know if it is you can't mention these things, but you can't think certain ways to lead you to certain things. >> very complicated. let's tell you about something simpler this morning. apple striking a deal with a.r.m. holdings to continue collaborating on chips from 2040 and beyond. s softbank company is set to debut on the stock exchange next week and could be valued at $52 billion. apple has expressed interest in taking part in buying shares that are out there. >> $55 billion total valuation?

>> somewhere around that. apple shares are under pressure. down another 2.7%. speaking of what we have been watching this with this, a bloomberg report says china plans to extend the restriction on iphone use beyond government agencies to a larger number of state-owned enterprises and government-controlled organizat organizations. that is a big concern. china is the second largest market for apple and employs millions of people through foxconn and other suppliers. if you can't bring it to the office with you, it is not just having it. if it is extended as bloomberg is reporting, that is a concern of what it means down the road. if it is extending to consumers. >> we would ask analysts about apple and starbucks and we would

say is there a risk and is it built into the stock? everyone says you can't think about that or you don't know. it is happening. it is happening. i wonder how far it goes. >> that is what investors are trying to figure out. was this a minor issue? the tiktok bans in the united states hasn't had an impact. this is not a federal ban, but montana, where we were talking yesterday and some state offices, it hasn't had impact on tiktok's projected growth to this point. obviously, more people in china and the chinese government can decide to do more if it choses. >> there was the idea because apple was a large employer in china, that somehow they were a protected class. their business -- >> they talked about how they have a sy symbiotic relationshi.

>> similarly, by the way, starbucks. people say starbucks have all of the employees. what happens? there is a risk that may not be in the market. >> i don't know if it is this. >> a larger thing happening between the united states and china. >> tricky line. one-fifth of apple revenue comes from china. second biggest market after the united states and one-fifth of the revenue. that is what you see playing out here. in the meantime, the braigs biden administration announced it will prohibit drilling on millions of acres in alaska and the arctic national refuge. we will talk more about this

week's energy moves with helima croft coming up at the bottom of the hour. the new media landscape may look like the old one. speaking at the goldman sachs conference yesterday, david zaslav said he has had conversations about developing new bundles. just like cable. he said those competitions and con verversations have picked u. the offering content from amc for a limited window. zaslav addressed the ongoing strikes in hollywood. he said we need to do all we can to get people back to work. we are past labor day. all of those conversations we had about labor day, labor day -- >> it has been more than 100 days. >> are we now into october? november? you start to think if the writers' deal is done a month from now, i'm making this up,

you still have the actors. that is another 45-day process. then in hollywood, after t thanksgiving and christmas, not a lot happens. you pushed everything to 2024. that is the calculus unless something were to happen now. we have update on the potential strike by the uaw. we are one week away from the key deadline when the auto workers could walk off the job. the union president outlined the grievances on "last call" last night. >> in last four years, the cost of vehicles went up 30%. our wages went up 6%. corporate ceo pay enwent wiup 4. this is corporate greed. this is not our members, but

corporate greed. that needs to change in this country. >> fein said the strike could reaffirm to president biden where the workers stand in this country. over the weekend, president biden said he wasn't worried about the strike and didn't think it would happen, but obviously this is a complicated situation. a president who called himself the most labor friendly president in american history and faced with the situation where you could see a strike with all three of them and fein and uaw has been pretty clear they don't want him stepping in or taking sides. >> what do you think? >> what are the odds? >> yeah. >> i don't know. if one with of the automakers comes to a decision quickly, that sets a template for the others. i'm not sure what they are willing to give away. that was pretty tough talk. of course, you hear tough talk. >> i worry. i think you are seeing the power of labor. this goes to the idea where we

are in the employment cycle. i think the power of the labor movement has risen. >> strong jobs market. the cost of cars has gone up 30%. the cost of groceries. that inflationary environment and the union deals with the pilots or the dock workers or anybody along the line received significant increases. >> u.p.s. being the biggest. when we come back, we will talk about the biggest movers this morning and including a meme stock and retailer and a.i. play. we have that story next. at 8:00 a.m. eastern time, lee cooperman will join us here on the set. we will get his take on the markets and the fed's next move. d iss bc b" hing "squawkox anth icn. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by ibm. ibm. let's create. o for bu

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welcome back. let's talk about stocks to watch. take a look at shares of gamestop right now because they are higher. close to 6% higher. the video game retailer reported revenue of $1.16 billion. the company didn't announce executive appointments as it

continues to search for a ceo and cfo. as a result, but the way it has been doing it, it will not hold a conference call. back in june, gamestop terminated matt furlong and named matt cohen who is operating as a ceo of sorts, i imagine. >> yes. we are watching shares of american eagle outfitters. earnings of 25 cents a share came above what the street was expecting. revenue of $1.2 billion matched wall street expectations and the company did raise full year outlook. the stock is up 2 cents. then shares of c3 a.i. which are lower after the company reported a loss of 9 cents a share. not as bad as 17 cents which is what the street was expecting. that is why the stock is down by almost 10%. decline of 9.6%.

joining us to talk strategy is kari firestone. the chairman and ceo and co-founder of areus management. kari, let's talk about the markets right now. people are coming back from summer vacations. maybe they checked out a little bit. august started out lousy, but ended as a good one. this week is not strong for the markets. we are off 1% for the major averages. how are you feeling? what are you watching? what are you thinking? >> i think she's frozen. >> i don't think i stumped kari with that question. it was a video froze position. we will see if we can get her back and get this reset for a second. i think she had a thoughtful answer to that question. in the meantime, let's look at a couple of charts. if you have been watching oil, this is the big story we have been talking about all week

long. oil prices picking up again and it is happening despite concerns about some of the weaker economy in china. weaker economy and you normally see oil prices come down. because of opec and the saudis and what they are doing with supply, you are seeing higher prices. brent above $90 a an barrel. brent as well above $90. this is a continuing question. are you focused more on what is happening with the slowing economy in some parts of the world or focused more on higher inflationary prices because crude oil prices and energy prices, in general, helped with our issue of inflation to this point. we will see if it continues. >> i think we will take a quick intermission. >> we will see if we can get kari back.

still ahead on "squawk box," if you have stressors harming you from saving for retirement, you are not alone. we will also talk with the ceo of draftkings about the upcoming nfl season. that starts at 7:00 p.m. eastern time for the nfl kickoff. "squk x"s tuinrit after this. gh

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we have sharon epperson with the latest on the your money survey. >> good morning, andrew. a lot of people are financially stressed. are you? you are not alone. a new survey finds 74% of americans are stressed about personal finances. that is up 70% from the april survey. 37% of people say they are very stressed. among the top stress ors are inflation and savings. among those full or part-time, 41% do not contribute to the 401(k). 57% do. here is how they are funding retirement plans. 46% contributing as much as they can afford. 24% are putting away as much as the employer matches and 11% save to the maximum and 8% put in the automatic default amount.

you can save up to $22,500 for retirement in the 401(k) plan. if you are 50 or order, you can put away extra for catch-up contributions up to $7,500. some will let you save more after tax contributions. the majority, 56%, admit they are not on track with the yearly 401(k) savings in order to retire comfortably. you can read more from our survey on cnbc.com. andrew. >> let's talk about how people are investing their 401(k) m money. >> it is interesting. most people don't understand which inve investments. half of those responding had no idea what the investment options were and the other half said they did. that can put a wrinkle in how you invest. they didn't know. they didn't know the options.

>> how are they in it? >> they're in it because you just put money in and maybe you never look. there are some people, i'm not saying anybody around the table here, but early in the 401(k) in and you did not realize you have to pick the investment. it sits in a money market account. that may be an example of one person sitting at the table. if you don't know the investments -- you are not actually defaulting -- early in one's career before they were a financial correspondent. >> they don't default into the age-based programs? >> sometimes you could. sometimes you can do that. some plans are set up that way. some plans are requiring you to take action and you want to be in that age-based plan or in the s&p 500 fund.

>> i shouldn't laugh. i didn't know when i first started out. i'm grateful i had an employer which actually defaulted and put money aside and forced you to do it. you had to opt-out which is a good dummy proof way of doing it. it saves you because of the compound interest is important over time. >> absolutely. i'm trying to make myself feel better. this is a rollover 401(k) from a one employer to another. you don't know. i think the thing which is hurting people is trying to figure out how to deal with the competing responsibilities they have financially. do i pay down credit card d debt or save? you should do the company match at the least. with credit card debt at 20% or higher, you may want to step

back from the 401(k) and pay that off. >> you hate those plans as much as i do for the same reason. >> high rates sdp. >> the fees on the programs are crazy. some percentage and bonds in some other percentage based on age. >> they charge you 250 basis points. >> that is why some advisors say do the company match and invest whatever else you would on your own in a roth i.r.a. or brokerage account. you want the tax advantage, but you have the feefees. >> thank you, sharon. >> i hate it for the same reason. let's get back to kari firestone. kari, sorry we got cut off before. you were about to tell us what you think about the markets. do you think the stocks are overvalued here? >> that's a good question. it is not fair to say that

stocks are overvalued. that word encompasses many stocks. the saep trades at 18.3 times next year's earnings. that's a little bit richer than typical over a 20-year period. that's been true many times in the past. you think about where we've come from. we are 6.5% below the all-time high. we made a lot of progress. we're not back to where we are at the beginning of 2022. right now, we're in the wwa wait-and-see mode. inflation continues to come down. powell said it is still happening because the rate increases are having an effect on inflation. interest rates are probably not going up in the near term. what we need to see is earnings drive the market and if we see earnings growth in the next quarter and fourth quarter stronger than expected, i think

the market continues to advance and continues. that is not true of all stocks, obviously. i don't think we're worried of the imminent collapse that will happen. we think the market is trading at about a level that makes sense. >> okay. let me ask this. do you think the drivers of the market will continue pto be the same? is it going to continue to be a.i. or technology stocks? >> those are the sdtocks that mattered over the last year. we had fear of inflation and recession. we hasn't had recession. we had growth. the tech names that suffered last year had enormous effect on moving the market higher. the top times of apple, microsoft, amazon and alphabet come from 46% in the gain of the s&p 500. those four names alone cannot carry the market forever. they need to do their part.

we think that is probably true because digital advertising suffered last year. it is better right now. the software industry is better because there is more growth in the economy. we think if they can come in with numbers asp expected, ther are a lot of names under the top four, 496 of 500. those names. industrials and energy is doing its part. consumer stocks and the economy continues to grow, then that means we will see broader participation. we saw salesforce reported a quarter better than expected. i bring that up because they report a month after most companies. because they have shown things were getting better is encore amgi -- encouraging. >> kari, thank you. thank you for your patience.

i'm glad we got it all worked out. >> thank you, becky. >> kari firestone. when we come back, the ftc is gearing up for the anti-trust suit against amazon. we dig into that case next. as we head to break, let's look at the s&p 500 winners and losers from yesterday. coach saban, this goat done took over our office. and he's using it to send out medical bills. good hands! hospital bill for prime?! gaaaaap! did you just say gap?! he's talking about expenses health insurance doesn't cover. good thing coach prime knows about...say it one time! aflac! because aflac gets you money to help close that gap! now how do we get this goat outta here? (whistles) aflac! meet one of my new homies! gaaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com. elephant would've been scarier.

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good morning. welcome back to "squawk box." we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. let's look at the futures. mixed future. s&p futures down 12 points. dow is up 12 appoipoints. the nasdaq which is down three sessions in a row, indicated down another 89 points. apple is a drag on the nasdaq. we will continue to watch that and tell you more about that in a bit. in the meantime, let's look at

the squawk stack. check out what is happening. you will see the 10-year treasury is yielding above 4.27%. the 2-year treasury is back below 5%. just barely at 4.99%. you have the dollar which is up a little bit this morning, of course. the dollar yesterday closed at the highest level since march 15th. a couple of days in a row we have seen that happening. wti is down by .50% this morning. wti is picking up. if you look at wti or brent, either crude production numbers, we have not seen prices since november of last year at that price. let's talk about the ftc. it is now gearing up for the fourth case against the online retail giant amazon. the consumer watch dog has been probing that since 2019. joining us with the next move is

kathy o'neill. kathy, we read a lot about where ftc is going next with amazon. it appears to be third-party sellers and where it is going with the platform. what do we know at this point? >> good morning. thanks for having me. i think this is very interesting. it is a long and an aticipated . lena kahn has interesting insights about the case. this would make the ftc challenge difficult. a lot of people have come to love and rely on amazon and particularly amazon prime. the unlimited fast and free shipping and access to books and music and movies. over the last five or ten years, consumers have expected to rely on the services. i know for myself, i consider it

nothing short of a miracle i can order something in the morning and it is on the door step the next day or sometimes the same day. >> same, kathy. i'm with you. >> when you think about an enforcement action which has the potential to jeopardize that, i think some people get nervous. certainly in any court case, amazon will point to these consumer benefits in defense of the actions. >> that's the fundamental question, i think, both for the company and for investors and possible reply for consumers which is to say do you think this is a strong case and should the ftc be bringing the case? >> it is a good question. i should say i haven't seen the record yet. i'm anxious to see what the ftc has been able to put together here. i think, you know, with the themes i mentioned, these cases are difficult. i think both anti-trust law and consumers look favorably on lower prices and innovative

offer ings like prime and an establishing the delivery service that we rely on. these are looked at favorably with the anti-trust laws, but these are the things that appear to be the focus of the ftc concerns. the ftc is concerned that amazon is using all of the goods offered with the amazon prime membership to cement the position and crowd out competitors. it appears to be concerned about the amazon pricing parity. that requires businesses do business with amazon to offer the best price. and some concern that amazon is steering hmerchants to use the fulfillment service which is the delivery service that gets the same day and next day packages with we have grown to rely on. it is not to say the ftc cannot make a case, but i know there is

s consumer concern about amazon. the court could struggle with this given the consumer benefits. >> let's say for a moment and stipulate that they do all these things. let's say they do everything you just said. the question that i have is does the ftc first have to effectively prove that amazon has a remarkable market dominance or power in the business to begin with before even getting to the idea that these things might not be ben p efficiently to frankly the third parties or con p asume irs? 12k >> you have to predicate this has market power. the idea of lower prices and inn voe -- innovation is pro consumer. the idea that amazon has a mass market power and using that to

cement its position to maintain a monopoly position. >> kathy, does lina khan care if the ftc loses some of these cases? she has done it already with microsoft and its takeover deal. it seems to me part of what they're doing is creating a concerning culture in business to try to intimidate companies to not do things and backing off. whether she wins or loses, at least they know they have to wrangle twith her. >> i think there is a general view there is too much power yielded by the large tech companies, including amazon, and there needs to be enforcement action to remedy that. i think compared to prior administrations, i would say this administration is less focused on winning and losing. i think they would want to win a case like that, that would be the goal.

i think they are trying to make decisions about how to push and explore the limits of the sherman act and lean in on the anti-trust enforcement and they are less concerned about losing. if anything, losses in litigation, perhaps paves the way for legislation down the line. >> finally, when you think about timing and this administration, if, for example, and we don't know what will happen in 2024, these cases will go on for years. is it possible that somebody else wins the presidency in 2024, do all of these cases end? what would whappen? >> no, the court cases would continue. that is typical for cases like this to span administrations. i think back to the old microsoft brought under the clinton administration and then ultimately resolved under the bush administration. you know, these cases would move

forward. how they may ultimately resolve and stategery could change with the administration. >> kathy, thank you. we will talk to you again about it. thanks. >> thanks for having me. still to come, a shift to the iconic industry in maine. why some life long lobstermen and women are changing jobs. we've got that story next. at 8:00 a.m. eastern time, lee cooperman will join us on the set to get his take on the markets and the fed's next move and much more. "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the best informed brokers choose interactive brokers.

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welcome back to "squawk box." the state of maine is home to the newest and fastest industries in the u.s. as global warming puts the fishing industry at risk. we have diana olick with more. >> reporter: good morning, andrew. lobsters have been the staple of the maine economy worth $388 million last year.

climate change may change that. lobstermen -- entrepreneurs are turning to seawood. steve has been a lobstermen for 40 years. the gulf of maine waters are heating faster than every other ocean in the world forcing lobsters to colder waters and leaving lobstermen in a pinch. >> if we have a harvest on top of the benefits for health and carbon to sugignificantly help income, that is huge. >> reporter: they are doing it with atlantic sea farms which have grown from 30,000 pounds of seaweed to 1 million pounds last year. >> we are growing it without inputs and no pesticides or fresh water or inputs. mother nature is the kelp farmer. what we are doing is providing seeds to the partner farmers.

>> reporter: 90% of sea wweed i grown overseas now, but the u.s. market is expected to grow from $2 billion to $5 billion in the next ten years. warner sees an opportunity for maine and the planet. >> depending if you are in kroger or whole foods, there are 16 aisles. 15 have no seaweed. it is the most climate friendly food on the planet. it is helping fishermen diversify. we need to tackle the other aisles. >> reporter: maine produces 80% of all of the kelp seaweed produced in the u.s. it is not just for food. they are using it for things like cosmetics and clothing and bio-plastics. that is why p&g and toyota are here in portland, maine at the international seaweed conference. aind andrew. >> diana, it is a fascinating

story. you are hanging out? how long are you in portland? >> reporter: just a couple of days and hitting the conference. had kelp meatballs. it is fascinating how many companies are interested in expanding with the health and climate benefits of kelp and seaweed. it is helping us to reduce carbon emissions. >> so you know, you can eat your way through portland, maine. i have. make it to wholly doughnuts. mark it down. best doughnuts. >> reporter: luke's lobsters. >> that's great. i've been. duck fat. put that on your list. amazing. if you get to 12 for dinner, that's a winner. >> reporter: all right. writing it down. >> good to see you. i appreciate it. when we come back, the price of crude up 6% in the last

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welcome back, everybody. president biden is expected to leave today for the g20 meeting in india where he'll likely be meeting with saudi prince mohammad bin salman.

joining us is helima croft, global head of commodity strategy, a cnbc contributor, and helima, we have been watching the oil prices picking up. we know it is because of the extended cuts that saudi arabia made. is there any chance they're going to row ethink things or i this just what makes sense for saudi arabia? >> the saudis have been clear since june when they did the cut, they were going to be very focused on trying to stave off all these macro concerns, concerns about china, hard landing recession, that were dragging oil prices down. what we saw this week was the saudis were, like, look, we're going to extend this cut through the end of december alongside the 2 million a barrel a day opec cut. now what is also driving prices higher, though, we had massive inventory draws. look at last week in the united states. demand held up stronger than anticipated. the sum of all fears in the

macro front is abating now when it comes to the fundamental outlook for oil. >> so, we had thought that oil prices were going to be higher. we kind of dodged that bullet. it has been the one area where inflation hasn't been really rampant. are you thinking that we are in for higher prices for an extended period of time? >> i mean, the challenge for the biden administration right now is they do not have up their sleeve probably another blockbuster spr release. so they're having to rely on energy diplomacy. you mentioned the g20. the question is can president biden try to secure additional oil relief from the saudis as part of its megadeal that it has been in the works, negotiations have been ongoing, for several months, about a deal that would include israel normalization, assistance for the saudi civilian nuclear program, new security guarantees for saudi arabia, can they get this megadeal across the finish line

and would it include some form of oil relief? >> what do you think the answer is? >> i mean, i think it is challenging. i think it is going to be challenging to sell this to democrats in congress, but the biden administration sent jake sullivan there, brett mcguirk is there this week. they have been working very hard to get this across the finish line. they believe it is worth putting in the diplomatic effort to try to get this major reset with saudi arabia. >> so watching, again, what is happening with the supply and demand picture, we know supply picture is going to be tighter a unless a deal like this goes through. what is less clear is the demand picture. there have been pressure on this because of the waning demand from china, expectations of a slower economy there. what do you hear from people in the markets right now, in terms of how big of a factor that is? >> i mean, the china concerns are absolutely weighing on prices. the economic data from china has been disappointing. what is interesting, becky, when you dig into the oil data, the

oil data has been quite constructive. june was a monster month for chinese imports. if you look at july, softer, but august numbers were solid in terms of chinese oil imports and refinery utilization numbers have been solid in china as well. so we had this bit of a disconnect between the broader macro data on china and the broader oil data. another concerning point for the markets is what is happening on the product side. we have significant deficits when it comes to products. look at the run-up in diesel prices and look where we are in terms of refinery capacity. there is no spr refinery capacity and that is also pushing prices higher. the product story is incredibly important. >> helima, i don't know if you're in texas right now, but i do know the state's power grid operator put on emergency operations on wednesday evening again, just concerned they're not going to have enough power

for everybody in the state asking people if they have backup generators to run those. what is the situation with the power grid in texas? >> i mean, this is another concerning situation, becky, where it is in terms of asking texas consumers to conserve energy. the question is are we going to have brownouts. this is an ongoing story about the state of the grid infrastructure in the united states. everybody will be watching what is happening in texas very closely. >> okay. helima, thank you. we'll watch texas. we'll watch what is happening with the g20 and we'll talk to you again soon. >> thank you. >> okay. coming up, two very busy hours ahead. you don't want to go anywhere. we're going to be talking to the interview -- talking to and interviewing the ceo of draft kings. and tonight's nfl kickoff. opd legendary investor leon coerman will join us on set. "squawk box" is coming right back. you're a rock star. you are a rock star. no more calling co-workers rock stars. look, it's great that you use workday to transform your business.

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its new season tonight. that's expected to provide a big boost for gambling. we're going to hear from the ceo of draft kings. and with the major autoworkers strike looming, we'll take a look at the impact on the american economy if 146,000 workers walk off the job. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc. we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm andrew ross sorkin with becky quick. joe is off today. take a look at u.s. equity futures, got a lot moving around this morning. let's show you where things stand. we're going to put the board up. there it is. dow up marginally. we'll call it up 5 points. nasdaq off 95 points. s&p 500 looking to open down about 13 points. when it comes to the treasury

market, though, you're looking at the ten-year note, and the two-year note. ten-year, 4.72%. the two-year, almost at 5%, 4.995%. and looking at mortgage rates, 30-year mortgage, like 7.2% these days. >> it was 7.5%. >> it has come down a little bit. >> people are wondering if it is marching to 8%. >> hasn't helped. >> no, not if you're in the market for a home. you can't buy as big of a home, as much of a home. >> a zombie apocalypse for the housing market. a lot of people are going to say i'm going to sit on this until people hit this roll on an arm, seven or ten-year arm and then they have to sell because the rate will go up on them. >> for the supply part in areas of the country where you don't have as much new building. where you have new building, that's a big deal. there is such a lack of supply, so opposite forces are pushing on things right now. let's get over to dom chu, a

look at the morning's premarket movers. >> good morning, becky, good morning, andrew. big artificial intelligence stock on the move this morning, c3a.i. shares down 10% in the premarket, 100 shares of volume. it beat expectations. it reported a narrower quarterly loss, better revenues than expected, but it is forecasting a bigger full year loss than what analysts were looking for. so a stock that had a lot of momentum at one part of this year is seeing things on the waning side of things, now down about 10% the premarket here. there is gamestop, one of the original meme stocks, up 5%, around 25,000 shares of volume. it has been trending lower as you can see over the medium term, but it is getting a pop this morning on better than expected quarterly revenues and a smaller quarterly loss amid lower cost pressures. gamestop shares on the rise by 5%. on the team retail front, we have shares of american eagle outfitters, just up fractionally, maybe one-third of 1%. 5,000 shares of volume after the

apparel company reported better than expected results. revenues were inline, but it did raise its full year outlook on better than demand trends in the industry. american eagle up one-third of 1%. we'll end with an analyst call on mcdonald's. that stock is up over a percent right now, around 5,000 shares of volume. wells fargo is upgrading the quick service restaurant giant to an overweight from a prior equal weight rating. also pointing a $310 price target on it. they like the golden arches product innovations, digital initiatives and the recent stock pullback as you can see here providing an attractive entry point, so, andrew, a lot of stocks on the move, generally a mix there, positive and negative. i'll send things back over to you. >> thank you for that. straight to the markets. here with us now on set, gabriela santos at jpmorgan asset management. good morning to you. we are talking to leon cooperman later. he has a view, i don't want to

say it is anything on everything, but broadly speaking thinks equities are overvalued, generally speaking. are you in the same category? >> i think in terms of our macro view, it is actually improved significantly since the end of may. and we now think the probability is higher for a soft landing. we also have gotten much better earnings data and actually earnings estimates moved up four percentage points. that doesn't neatly translate into a buy u.s. large cap stocks view because of valuations. and especially because of the contribution of these top ten stocks, which are now 30% index and are at 145% of normal valuations, which is really pulling up the whole index valuation at over 18 times. so if you just take a market cap approach from here, we do think we'll have midsingle digit returns annualized from here. so much more approach is to

either think about an equal weight investing or even more than that, just to take a very, very active approach of all subsectors to think carefully about valuations and to still think carefully about quality. >> how are you guys thinking about china right now? the reason i ask is this big apple news i think is a big risk in the market, not just to apple, longer term, but to every american firm that does business in china because there seems to have been a view that somehow the risk was off the table. if you -- apple has so many employees and people doing business, china through foxconn and other things, that somehow they would be untouched. has this changed? >> i think there has been building for a few years now, this much more buy chinese sentiment within china. and i think this is a symbol of where we're moving whether it comes to trying to access the chinese consumer, the second largest contributor to global consumption from here on out, it

is going to get harder and harder to do that indirectly through multinational companies, u.s. companies especially, but also european companies. >> do you want to be in those companies given it is possible if you cut off -- what do we say, a fifth of apple's revenue -- >> right. >> if you cut off that, i'm not suggesting overnight, but if you take this to its ultimate place, that's what happens. >> and exactly. we don't think that there will be an overnight cutoff. if we think about how much consumers have grown to enjoy certain of these products, as well as the employment that some of these companies -- >> how do you measure that risk? how do you look at a disney that has a park in shanghai, could you ever imagine a day where they're, like, no, we're not doing it this way anymore? >> we think that complete cutoff is not where we're going.

we do think over time there will be a migration from chinese consumption of foreign multinational consumer brands towards much more domestic champions. and so when we think about what we actually want to invest in china, it still is the chinese consumer, we don't think that story is over, because we have gotten some disappointment in the recovery this year. but to do that, we need to be investing in the new chinese domestic champions consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare. by the way, these are companies that are much more attuned to the change in consumption patterns in china to begin with and have been tapping into that much more over the past few years. >> and finally, energy, energy has been on the move in a very positive way, the question is whether that positive way is going to be a negative way for everybody else and for jay powell. >> so far we're okay at $90 brent because year over year that's still basically flat.

so we're not going from energy being really pulling down headline inflation to all of a sudden it meaningfully pulling it up. so $90 is okay. and i think for chair powell it is tolerable as long as we continue to see a move lower in super core inflation. we do think we will see that. there is a lot of lag effect coming down the pike, when it comes to rental inflation and auto-related inflation, which is contributing two-thirds of super core inflation, things like leases and insurance and auto repairs. so, really the interesting danger there, quote, unquote, to that piece is is the uaw potential strike and there being more pressure on the auto sector versus energy prices at this point if we stay around $90. >> fair enough. gabriela, thank you. nice to see you. >> nice to see you. coming up, palantir's co-founder joe lonsdale will join us.

we're going to talk a.i., big tech, social media, 2024 election and so many more issues. then in the next hour, as we just mentioned, investor in omega family office ceo leon cooperman will join us with his latest stock picks and thoughts on the fed. former st. louis fed president james bullard will be joining us. gweot a lot going on this morning. "squawk box" coming right back. spent the first six years in my life in a russian orphanage. and i had no wheelchair available. i didn't have any schooling. i wasn't taught that i could be anything. my dreams really began when i came to the us and got involved with the sports program. i tried everything, swimming, hockey, wheelchair basketball. sports taught me that i could before anyone taught me that i couldn't. [crowd cheering] ♪♪ it's time to bring balance to business travel. and discover the equilibrium that works for you.

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welcome back to "squawk box." a new report saying the pentagon is planning a vast fleet of a.i. technology drones to counter a threat from china adversaries. i want to bring many joe lonsdale, co-founder of palantir. good morning to you. it is a fascinating story. by the way, if you pair that story up with a piece in the "new york times" last week about the navy, and how much money is being spent not on a.i., in fact, it has been such a jobs program that they're not wanting to actually do the right thing, where are we really? that's what i was going to ask. >> this is the big question with any defense spending in the u.s., which part is a jobs program, which part is going to scare our adversaries to not have war. and the navy is doing some great things. we have a new company that is doing exactly what that announcement says, building lots of naval drones with a.i. instead of building just $14 billion ships, you spend one of the $14 billion on 10,000 smart

weaponized drones, that's a lot more effective against our adversaries. >> do we need these $14 billion ships anymore? >> you probably do need a few big ships. there is an argument for aircraft carriers. it is true, in a near adversary confrontation, china could take out some of these things pretty quickly so you want to complement them with tens of thousands of smaller things. we need more small autonomous drones and we're doing that in the air and in the water. this is important stuff. >> are we overspending? >> i think we could cut some of the spending on the military side. it is the jobs side. you could reallocate it. we have all these new companies with the best and the brightest coming in. if you let us compete evenly, go to -- out in the desert and have their devices versus our devices, one of the competitions we were ten times better. we shot down hardened drones over ten times farther away. this is against people who have

gotten billions dollars of contracts. we still don't win the big contracts because we don't play the same games the same way. but eventually they need to start letting us, a, compete, and b, win, for having won the competition. >> my only question would be the downside, i'm playing devil's advocate here, is just that if you give them a way to too many small companies, you don't have the ability to say, okay, this company is going to be here in ten years, it is going to be funded. >> and that's a big question, so right now the military, there is the systems of record, the really big contracts and the lots of little things for little small companies and those little grants are just for like your veteran owned, minority owned, like you're a little kid and it is messed up. but that's how they have done it. we need new paths for new companies to become prime. we need to allow a few more companies to become from small to the big ones. >> what has to happen for that to take place? >> for that to take place, you need more open competition, the

results of the competition be a path to a system of record for new companies, versus when you talk to senators, they say, joe, why can't you sell your company to the big companies? our best engineers don't want to work at the big companies because their cultures are not the best technology cultures. >> you think the government would allow you to sell some of these companies. >> this is a really funny thing about the government, the dod will tell you one thing and then the doj and the ftc will tell you -- the doj says don't hire these people, these backgrounds with family in china because they could get information on your company, and then the doj sues you if you're elon or palantir and says you're -- it is a mess. it is a mess. they are allowing some acquisitions. probably should allow more. they need to allow us to compete. >> i have a related question. did you read this piece in the new yorker two weeks ago about spacex? and the satellites? and how much the u.s. and frankly the entire west is now

relying on starlink and the power and influence therefore -- >> i thank god we have it. >> is there any competition in that space that is oming? and if it isn't, what do you do from a policy perspective because that's also its own conundrum. >> there are a lot of companies that people tried to start to compete against spacex. there is a lot of money being invested -- there is things that spin stuff around really fast and shoot it up, small rockets. right now spacex is completely dominant. but it is dominant because it is the best. it is, like, you know, if you make the cost ten times less, thank goodness. spacex is winning. i think there is competers. spacex starts to fall, the competitors will beat them. but right now spacex is winning. >> all right. while we're on the elon-related topics, i'm curious if you would weigh in, we were having jonathan greenblatt from the adl here yesterday about this issue on twitter about anti-semitism,

we raised a lot of different issues. clearly elon musk is upset with him thinking he is effectively preventing advertisers from advertising on the platform at the same time he thinks anti-semitism is spreading on the platform. where do you stand? >> this is such a complex issue. i was mentioning it, my mom's side is jewish, i think the number one thing, first of all, is you have to be really careful basically, like, supporting directly any of these anti-semites or make them think they're being supported. elon musk is anti-semitic, i believe him, i know him very well, he has a following of millions of people who see this getting traction and don't realize what is going on here. some of them think it is a dog whistle. >> it is him promoting some of that stuff too and playing with -- >> well, he is -- >> just in terms of -- not promoting as much as by engaging

with them. >> elon is a fighter. part of how he building all the things and wins. he's a fighter. like i'll push for what's right and he's angry at them. i empathize with that anger. i know where it is coming from. i think the adl has gotten very political to the left, which is unfortunate. i think there a lot of things they do, not about stopping hate, about pushing leftist views and i think they need to say exactly what they want. it is very, very hard for elon. what exactly i'm supposed to do if i'm doing free speech and blocking anti-semitism. i think there is a wisdom side of it to realize he's an inspiration to millions of people who don't know -- >> how do you square that piece of it? i don't think -- i don't know him nearly as well as you do, but i don't think he's anti-semitic at all. i think it is against his nature. but i think he does like to stoke the fire if you will of folks on twitter. partially for the activity of it, partially for the

entertainment for it, partially for whatever it is. >> he stated very clearly he's not anti-semitic, he's clearly not, he's stated in the past he's probably pro semitic. he's frustrated at the adl. it is interesting to me. i have vend friends on the adl side -- >> more forcefully on twittwitt all you folks saying these things, i completely disagree with you. i hate to compare it to trump, trump did some very pro israel things, for example, for jewish people, and yet at the same time, seemed to like to stoke the fire of, you know, white supremacists. very unusual situation. >> he did come out two days ago with a tweet that very clearly said i'm against all forms of -- he's really busy, he doesn't take the time to do things like that. he took the time to clearly try to state that. i'm not sure what else to say. >> people had questions because of some of his stuff.

>> there is a nuanced thing. i have smart friends on both sides who in their world it is very clearly their side is totally right and i think it is important to see things from both perspectives. i understand why he's angry. >> can we talk about apple and china and china more broadly as it relates to technology, technology companies, what you think is happening and what the real risk is for american or multinational companies that are doing business in china today? >> decoupling from china is hard. it is really hard. i have friends at apple who we talked about how they are trying to diversify. china is not happy about that. they told me that they want to have china, the iphone costs go up five or six times. the supply chain is locked into there. it is true of other companies as well. you can't just move right away. xi jinping is being very aggressive, really good chance that something snaps in the next two or three years and things are blocked and then these companies are in huge trouble. people are scrambling to get out

but it is not easy. >> but what do you think the risk is for the technology companies themselves? if we think this is a fifth of their business, that's -- >> for the companies -- >> yeah. it is not going to disappear overnight. but they see this coming, they're trying to make changes. >> china would like us not to be able to use it as a market as all. they have been very, very unfair. for some reason we're open to them asymmetrically. i think this further decouples an they further take away the market in china. they have done it with companies in the past. >> are you invested in china anymore? >> no, i stopped investing in china eight or nine years ago, we started building defense companies when we realized what was going on. >> the defense companies made you stop doing it or the unfair practices? >> it was realizing the unfair practice and realizing the direction that xi jinping is going, he's an economist, he's trying to cause problems for the u.s., he's not for open systems, he's not for court systems to

check their power. they were going in a direction we thought china would become free. i was naive 12 years ago, optimistic on china, it became clear it was going closed, to a very scary direction, very totalitarian. >> joe lonsdale, great to see you. when we come back, the summer of strikes. >> our goal is not to strike. our goal is to get an equitable agreement for our members and if we get there, we'll be fine. if not, we'll have to take action. >> the president of the uaw on "last call" saying he hopes a strike can be averted with one week left to reach a deal. are unions a force for good in the u.s. which he? jon fortt weighs both sides of that argument. and then the nfl season kicks off tonight with the defending super bowl champs, the kansas city chiefs, taking on the detroit lions and the bets are coming in. we'll speak to draft king's ceo jason robins about the upcoming nfl season and gambling. we'll be right back. time now for today's aflac

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now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. this popular ceo is the cousin of the "game of thrones" co-creator. who is it? the answer, marc benioff. check out shares of dave and busters, one of my kids' favorites, earnings coming in at 60 tacents a share. same store sells fell during the quarter, worse than the 3.3% that analysts were expecting. the board boosting its share repurchase program by $200 million. the stock off 3%, 3.5%. >> you didn't go there last quarter. >> clearly. once you think about the metaverse and everyone puts on their goggles, i don't know if you'll have to go. still to come, the cost to commute. new jersey filing a lawsuit

against the federal government to halt the congestion pricing program that could cost commuters as much as $24 to enter midtown manhattan. the mta's ceo will join us later this hour to discuss it all. first, 73 million americans, that's the number of people who plan to bet on the nfl this season. we're going to talk to the ceo of draft kings, ahead of the 2023 kickoff. we're going to do that next. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" returns after this. ♪♪ at morgan stanley, old school hard work meets bold new thinking. ♪♪ at 87 years old, we still see the world with the wonder of new eyes, helping you discover untapped possibilities and relentlessly working with you to make them real. old school grit. new world ideas. morgan stanley. ai has the power to generate solutions.

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welcome back, everybody. the nfl season kicks off tonight with the defending super bowl champs, the kansas city chiefs, taking on the detroit lions. this also means a surge in sports gambling. contessa brewer is here. she joins us with more on this story. everybody is getting ready for this. >> you got people from the west coast to the east coast and everything in between, just chomping at the bit because betting is big business and football is the big daddy of sports betting. americans just love it. this fall, a record number, more than 73 million adults, say they'll wager on the nfl this season. that's up 58% from last year, according to a just released survey by the american gaming

association. geocomply told us it has seen 52% more location checks this past week, leading up to kickoff tonight, than the same period last year. meanwhile, big names in sports gambling have been under pressure over the last month. penn stock down 9%. draft kings down 4%. bet mgm, look at data providers sport radar, down 20% over the last month. still, these sports books all have had at least one quarter of positive ebitda and that is the key earnings metric in gaming. they are aiming for significant profitability. you could bet on the stocks or the game tonight. detroit lions versus the favorite super bowl champs kansas city chiefs. draft kings says it is the biggest game for betting this week, followed by the eagles

against the patriots. >> both of those. i know who i would bet on. >> go ahead. >> kansas city. >> okay. >> and the eagles. i know detroit was good. they had -- i think they won eight of the last ten games or something going into last year. but this is the team that is supposed to win the super bowl. everybody is looking at it, what is the knee injury that is potentially out there, blah, blah, blah, who would you take? >> i mean, i think -- i would go with mahomes anytime, like, who is he playing for? that's who i'm voting for. voting. >> how about the eagles? >> eh. that crowd gets so rabid and so wild. >> i hope cramer is listening. >> i love cramer. i don't have to vote for his team because i love him. my team is the packers. i lived and worked in wisconsin. if you don't join the packers cult, you die, yeah. >> right. >> you know who is going to win though? >> who?

>> draft kings. >> yes. speaking of, joining us now with the early line on the upcoming season is jason robins, draft kings ceo. football, of course, one of the most popular bets on the platform and, jason, i guess this is something like your black friday where this is really the kickoff to your christmas season. >> it is a big, big day for us, big weekend for us. that was really fun watching all of you debate who to bet on. i know we beat it to the mainstream when that's the subject, that's great. but really excited for today. we have some really awesome promos going, we brought back the early wins, so tonight if you opt in and either team goes up by 7 points, you -- that will automatically lock in. if you bet on them for a win, and we have no sweat each of today, sunday and also monday, you can get a no sweat bet where if you lose the bet, you get a bonus bet of equal amount. you essentially get a free roll on it. so really exciting. we have a ton of new product in tech features that we rolled out

this year. this is the big thing that the team has been preparing for when lots of people are going on vacation in late august, we're really working hard to get ready for this weekend. >> jason, i will admit, i was on twitter earlier or x earlier i should say and got a draft kings promotion from you guys trying to get me to sign up. i would get 200 bucks instantly in bonus bets if i bet $5. and that kind of made me start thinking about customer acquisition costs. what are they running you right now? >> customer acquisition costs are way down year over year, really great to see. we're acquiring more customers too. so, you know, typically if you want to lower -- you cut budget. but we have been able to increase the number of customers requiring at a significant clip. what we publicly disclosed was in the first half, almost 50% year over year increase at nearly 30% decline in cac in year over year. >> if i read correctly, the average cost last year was $371,

is that right? >> we don't disclose our actual cac. i'm not sure if that's an industry metric or something that they came up with for us, we haven't actually disclosed our cac. i should be careful about saying the exact numbers. but we did talk about the significant drop in cac year over year on the last earnings call. >> what do you think the impact of this new espn book is going to be with their deal with penn? it is a ten-year deal. can they play against you? there is some analysts saying this is going to -- minimum increase your costs, whether they can win, i don't know. you have fanduel out there playing against you as well. i'm curious about the impact of espn in particular. >> this is one of the most competitive industries on the planet right now. it doesn't seem like there has been a football season where there hasn't been the talk of one usually multiple competers that are coming and we just have to be ready for anybody. we think our product is the best in the market, we think we have the best customer experience and

only getting better and we work every day because we feel like we have to compete, it is not just given to us, customers have choices and we need to make sure they get the best experience with us. i think for us it is actually a motivator to see new competitors coming in. it is a reminder this is a valuable space, that creates really strong engagement with customers and that's why media companies like espn care about it. not just the dollars and cents, it is the engagement. that's an important thing. for us, that's the center of everything, how do we make sure the customers have a great time, how do we make sure that -- i don't want to comment on any private discussions. i will tell you that we had a great relationship with espn over the years and had discussions with them. in the end, i think penn made the best decision for them and espn made the best decision for them and we made the best decision for ourselves and, you know, espn is still an important marketing partner. we'll still advertise on their channels, we still have a deal with them active for this year. >> do you think that relationship therefore changes

over time, meaning right now you actually are big advertiser there, do you think if they ramp up and have great success with penn, you say that's not the platform i'm going to use. can you imagine a day where they competitively frankly don't want to give you prime spots that historically you might have had access to? >> well, you have to ask them that one. i think for us, listen, espn is a few percentage points of our new customers, about 5%, 6% of our overall budget, i believe. it is meaningful. it is a big partner. sure a big partner for us. if that were to happen, we have plenty of other places we can acquire customers. that said, our hope is that we continue to have a agree relationship with them, we continue to buy ad inventory that works and converts for us. if that changes, i don't think that's the end of the world for anybody and that's the decision they have to make. i don't think for us it will make sense unless they restrict the inventory and go elsewhere. but you never know. >> jason, the growth has been pretty phenomenal as more and more states kind of say gambling

is allowed. kentucky is a new area for you guys. is there a limit at some point to say, okay, everybody in america is already gambling. we had tom brady on yesterday, talking about his kids' fantasy football league. is there a limit where, okay, we have seen the heyday of the growth and now it is going to be about bringing more money out of the kexisting customers? >> i think we're very much in the growth phase. the customer acquisition numbers are still phenomenal. new states are opening up. k we have kentucky, ohio opened up towards the end, it was playoffs and super bowl only, so still the first full football season for ohio. between those states, that's roughly 10% of the population, not to mention north carolina, which is launching next year and we still don't have the three biggest states population-wise, california, texas and florida. so i think there is a ton of growth ahead. we're very much in the early

innings and obviously we want to see continued growth in the market. we also want to see it done the right way. responsible gaming is a huge focus. it is not just wringing the most money out of customer, it is making sure we give them a great experience and do it resp responsibly. >> thank you for joining us this morning. do you ever gamble? do you get to pick any teams? >> i do, i usually, you know, do for small dollars other than i play my co-founder matt in fantasy sports for fairly large sums that i probably wouldn't want to mention here, my wife might get mad at me. i love it. i tend to not gamble for a huge amount. but having a few dollars on the game makes it fun. >> which team do you have? >> you know, it is tough. obviously the odds and the spread account for it, if it were straight up i would go with the chiefs, but detroit has been -- they were sneaky at the end of last year, good offense. they can hang with the chiefs offense. i think it is a great game.

>> yeah. not going to say. i get it. thank you for joining us, jason. we'll see you soon. by the way, don't forget to catch tonight's nfl kickoff. the coverage begins at 7:00 p.m. eastern time on nbc. also streaming on peacock. "squawk box" will be right back. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley. network's got you covered. [please confirm requesting back-up.] -changing route. -go. roadblock ahead. ...back up, back up... reverse! reverse! next level moments, we're 30 seconds out. need the next level network. [north corridor, hurry!] -coming through! -or 3, let's go. the network more businesses choose. transplant received. at&t business.

(vo) while you may not be a pediatric surgeon volunteering your topiary talents at a children's hospital —d. your life is just as unique. your raymond james financial advisor gets to know you, your passions, and the way you give back. so you can live your life. that's life well planned.

the united autoworkers could go on strike a week from today if they don't reach agreement on raises and benefits with ford, gm and stellantis. it raises the question, are unions a force for good in the u.s. economy? jon fortt is here to weigh in on this. >> not anymore. unions now threaten to derail the economy with pretty extreme demands. don't get me wrong. unions have done a lot for work. they created the middle class and ended child labor and standardized the five-day workweek. today they're using a tight labor market to force concessions that could destroy auto companies. united autoworkers want a 40% raise over the next four years and return to defined benefit pensions and retiree medical benefits. what is the problem? electric vehicles have fewer

moving parts than traditional cars. when the big three have to compete with non-union tesla, bloated costs will kill their profits. i'm not against wages going up. but it shouldn't happen in a way that hamstrings companies so they can't adapt and quickly shifting industries. when unions insist on unrealistic terms, they become a destructive force. >> does the unions opening offer have to be that reasonable? isn't that what negotiations are all about, starting off with something you know you're not going to get and then whittling it down? >> well, becky, on the other hand, a resurgence in unions is what we need right now. without them, we have gotten an economy where they take a bigger share of profits for themselves while the working class builds the windmill. starting at a 40% pay increase,

that's what the ceos have gotten in recent years and they're pushing for pensions and retiree health plans because the american worker can't just roll over and accept a life of financial and medical insecurity in older age. unions have become especially important now because other major stake holders have plenty of power. they collect millions even if they fail. shareholders grew share prices to buy back stock or lay off workers. workers are stuck with wages that don't keep up with inflation. benefits that get worse by the year and now the fresh threat of obsoletence. the unions won't get everything they want. the only thing they get anything better in the era is articulate some principles and stand by. >> a lot of alliteration. >> i was nervous about it. >> you think they are going to go on strike next week too? >> i do. i think this is the big switch.

when you -- this is a probably once in a half a century opportunity for unions to press for some things they haven't been getting like in my lifetime. so they're not going to get everything. i don't really know what it is going to do to the economy. in a way, you can't blame them for trying. >> yeah, we're watching the hollywood strikes that are now past 100 days. not necessarily easy solutions, both sides are digging their heels in. >> with a.i., it is hard to negotiate over something you don't entirely understand. it is pandora's box to let loose, i hear we got to go. i got to plug the on the other hand newsletter, of course. get the qr code on the screen. you can type in cnbc.com/otoh. you can weigh in, let me know which side you agree with more and actually get the text of this argument too. results from the most recent topic has salesforce become a growth and profit machine, 52% said yes.

48% said it is not clear yet. that's the closest poll so far. >> you argued both sides very well. >> i hope so. >> thank you, jon. >> i hope it doesn't mean the other ones are horrible. >> coming up on the other side of this, back to school, back to work. if you live in new york city, you're planning to go back to the office, but you probably will be paying more for your commute. we're going to talk to the ceo of new york's metropolitan transportation authority. we'll talk about price hikes and the efforts to make commuting a better experience. and the top of the hour, leon cooperman will join us to talk markets and where he's putting his money to wk.or all that and more as "squawk box" rolls on. i made that. with your very own online store. i sold that. and you can manage it all in one place. i built this. and it was easy, with a partner that puts you first. godaddy.

welcome back to "squawk box." millions of new york city welco box." millions of new york city workers returning to the office this month will be faced with higher transit fares, the first major price hike since 2015. post-pandemic could help increase ridership. i've seen it myself. here with more is john weaver, ceo. there's a lot more folks on the subway than there had been. >> today is the first day of school. that's another 200-300,000 kids.

post-labor day people are starting to come back to the office more frequently. since i took this job a couple years ago, ridership is up 50%. in the last year it's up 15% plus. there's a 10 to 15% difference on mondays and fridays. among other things we've been able to address budget deficit. transit in the rest of the country is struggling financially. in new york city we've got five years of balanced budgets. good sign. >> is ridership back to prepandemic? >> no. we're at between 70 and 80% depending where you calculate. as you say, folks are starting to call people back to the office. maybe they used to do two, three days a week and now they're

going to four days a week. >> what's it going to take to get it back to pre-pandemic levels? the price of taxis, ubers are higher and i think to try to force people to use public transportation. how do you see that dynamic playing out? people say how do you improve city life? a lot of people say if you get more people back on the subways to that prepandemic level. >> the good news is when you and i were together about a year ago, we were talking a lot about subway safety. we have dramatically improved subway safety, the nypd. subway crime is down like over 5% over a year ago but it's lower than it was prepandemic. now, there's some high-profile stuff that happened that gives people the wrong impression but

overall a lot of really positive improvements. the goal is to have more people feel like this is the way to get around new york. it's happening. >> congestion pricing, it is still the hot topic. >> yeah. >> do you think it goi's going work? i know you do. what do you think the impact will be in the transitioning period for folks living in new york, new jersey and those who say i'm not going to pay this? >> the overwhelming majority of commuters take mass transit, even from new jersey, even though it's been the state most vocal in talking about it. >> infrastructure doesn't exist. meaning had we had better trains, better lines into the city -- >> i thought that was supposed to be done years ago. >> then you'd say, okay, this makes a lot of sense.

>> there's plenty of capacity on the mta. 100 plus of pre-covid service. the same exists. the new jersey commuters are going to benefit from the revenues that are gained out of congestion pricing. becky, hold on a second. new jersey commuters overwhelming take mass transit and then get on the mta system. it is to their benefit, the 80% that take mass transit are going to -- >> why not charge them when they get on the mta then? >> well, we're happy to do that. the point is that of one of those commuters is going to see a better system. >> they're going to pay an exorbitant amount for it. >> there's a public value. what do we need to prioritize in the city? ambulances can't get to hospitals. police cars can't get to crimes.

fire trucks can't get to fires. you got to do something. we're prioritizing public uses, bus travel has gone down by 30%. you can't do nothing. >> my point would be is you make it far more complicated and difficult for people who are already paying a high price to pay the tolls and then pay to park and then add another $24 toll on top of it and these are people who are going to back to their employers and say i don't want to come back to the city. is it counterproductive than paying to go to lunches and the rest of it in. >> in london, the key fact point is in london you have more people coming into the central business district and fewer cars. better air quality, less

congestion, safer streets, better transit. that's the point. >> where do you stand on bikes? a lot of cities have created bike lines. you talked about busses going ten miles an hour slower in new york. a huge part of lanes have been taken over by bikes. i like the idea of bikes. but if you look at three, four months of the year, it's dem it's cold outside. >> and there are special bus lanes to keep your busses moving. >> when you're a single

occupancy vehicle carrying 50 people versus two people, you have to prioritize the bus. >> new york is coming back. i think prioritizing the more affluent people who pay $50 to mark in the city is not the issue. and i never bought into people are paying $200, $300 for dinner and then going to a broadway show for what will probably be a $15, $20 toll. >> i respectfully disagree. i know it going to change my behavior and my employer is paying for my commute in the morning. it will keep me from wanting to come back. >> listen, i don't think that you're in the majority but we can certainly keep debating. >> good to see you. >> coming up, leon cooperman

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a mixed picture for the markets today. investors remained focus going into the fall. we're going to have more data on the way. plus apple shares are sliding. china may extend restrictions on iphones beyond government agencies. and 50 years of market wisdom on our set this morning. joining us, he's got plenty to say about stocks, rates and so much more as the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now. good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm becky quick along with

andrew ross sorkin. joe is out today. dow futures had been higher earlier but they've turned south as well, down by about 44 points right now. the s&p futures off by close to 20, the nasdaq down by about 116. those losses have been building. by the way, the nasdaq has been down for three sessions in a row, all three of major averages off by a little more than 1% for the week to date so far. treasury yields coming back down. the 2 year is just below 5s % right now. crude prices are a little lower this morning after touching the highest level we've seen yesterday since november of 2022. wti at just about $87 a barrel, brent at $90.12. >> let's top talk some of the top stories.

bloomberg reporting to extend iphone use. beijing banned the use for government officials. apple shares under pressure again. looking at that stock off by about 2.5%. the real concern is this could expand in all sort of other ways. the other one is the one that becky mentioned, it's not that they can't have the phones, they can't bring them to work at all. >> which means you're going to look for a new phone. >> bingo. >> right. >> and a new sec filing, set to debut on the nasdaq with a total valuation that could be as high as $52 billion. shares have gained. 20 bucks at this point.

the video game retailer reported revenue of $1.6 billion. it narrowed its loss in the year-ago quarter and it didn't announce executive appointments as it searches for a ceo and cfo. you can go back and look at when that stock was $5 and when it was several hundred dollars for a hot minute. >> our next guest says the s&p 500 may have exceeded expectations but he's not all that impressed. his latest book is a good read. check it out. he is the chairman and ceo of omega family office. he joins us in an exclusive interview to talk about all that's been happening in the

markets. lee, first of all, good morning. >> good morning. >> it's been a while since we've got to see new person. >> you get lazy. when i was not on set i used to sit on the program with my shorts on and my slippers. now i have to get dressed like an adult, getting up at 5:50 to get in here on time. i do watch the program when i'm not on. you guys do a very good job. >> thank you. >> god bless you. >> the s&p is up -- >> seven companies account for 73% of the game. look at the other companies in the s&p 500, they're up 3, 4%, which kind of fits what i think is going on. i think simply with all the issues out there, the s&p is trading at 19 or 20 times earnings and i think that's just too high. the equity-risk premium is

pretty low. i don't think the interest rates are all that high. maybe it's my age and how long i've been around. prior to 2008, the 10-year bond was in line with nominal gdp. if you have real close, you have inflation bottoming out at 3%, it wouldn't be surprising me if the 10-year got to 5 1/2%. it's currently around 4%. it's a minority view. what's too high? the stock market's been going up. the market has a very speculative tone to it. and in georgia, their gdp was like 5%. there's no indication that the fed is restrictive. >> and that means what for the broader economy? >> well, basically i think we're going to wind up in a recession but it's not here, it's not now. it will be caused by qt or the

fed, the price of oil or the dollar. right now is the reason they're well behaved. the market's up a lot this year i think in part because of positioning. the sentiment coming into this year i think generally speaking was negative. i respect his work but mike wilson of morgan stanley and i, i respect his work greatly, he had a consensus view, a real difficult first half. the market has a way of being very preverse. i think it's going to be worth. the strength of the market was very much tied to positioning. people were just very negative and caught up now with the market. secondly, the price will decline and the strong dollar reversed, which helped the economy as well. >> so you think the major averages are coming down in the second half? >> i think so, yeah. i wouldn't be surprised if -- i wouldn't make this a definitive comment but i wouldn't be surprised if we've seen the high for the year already.

i don't think -- my big issue, my big view is, and i said this about a year ago on the program, i have a view very much like the pharaoh had a dream and like in the bible. i don't expect we see a new high in the market for a long time. we've had very bad policy mix and part of the stress this year has been very stimulative to fiscal policy, restrictive to monetary policy. >> what do you do about all this? >> i'm a stock picker. i'm short the s&p at a certain level and i'm picking stocks that i like. it's hard to be patient, right? i got to be patient. and it's cheaper to have the financial capacity. there's two criteria i look at.

repurchase stock and it has to be cheap. i see nvidia. i miss that. nvidia announced $25 billion repurchase program. don't they know the stock has memories? it's now knocking on the door at 500. it's more than tripled. you can say they're very bullish in their business, which i'm sure they are or they're unrealistic. myself, i would rather see them pay a dividend rather than buy back stock at 40 times earnings. >> even though it's not as tax advantageous? >> you want to buy back stock when it's cheap. nobody is mentioning cisco. cisco was $ 80.

and cisco 23 years later is still below where it was in 2000. so stocks have memory. and they attract competition and i assume i'm not an expert in nvidia. if i was an expert, i would own it. it doesn't look to me it's going to move to buy back stock at this price. >> if the gains in the market are disingenuous just from the fact that it's only -- like looking at the market it's not telling you everything, that means you still got 493 stocks that haven't risen as much. is there a chance that those stocks take over and do well and that means that maybe -- >> yeah, but generally that happens in a corrective market. change in leadership generally happens when the market is correcting. so we're undergoing a change of leadership. i'm not forecasting that right now. i own google, i own microsoft.

>> what do you think of apple? you were always a wise man of sorts. >> i missed apple. i was in apple. i sold it at less than half the current price. i don't feel like an expert. they're so ubiquitous, product and they're selling so much cash. i would look for a level to correct to. i'm up about 15% this year, 20% in cash, 20% energy and energy is just starting to work for me. it worked last year, not this year. >> energy is starting to work. it's starting to move up since june basically, right? >> exactly. i found over the years that a 5% dividend yield i get lucky and that's my basic view. >> you want to talk more

about -- >> i basically say when something sounds too good to be true, it basically not true. they're turning around 34 cents on the dollar and they're worth par and the government's behavior has been nothing short of disgraceful and it can be proven. about seven, eight years ago the department of defense alleged that spectrum interfered with the gps system. they studied the issue for five years. after five years they concluded by a 5-0 bipartisan vote that the objections were inappropriate and wrong. now the department of defense changed their story and said they wanted it for national security purposes. i'm a loyal american. they have to pay for it.

can't get it for nothing. the bonds which are 34 worth par and matured in a few month are worth par at a $5 billion valuation. so it c's crazy. i think it's a disgrace the way the government has handled it. no one thinks that the gps interference argument was false. the sec basically said that. >> it's been a long, ongoing issue. >> i have a paper marked down and i haven't sold it. i think one day it's going to be up 50 points. that's my view and i feel very strongly about it. if i'm wrong, you don't want to be an investors in america because that means that the government can seize your property without compensation. i spoke to a person in constitutional law and they said nothing's impossible with the government but it's highly unlikely. >> let's talk a little bit more

about higher interest rates. on the other hand, housing wowould be adversely affected? >> do we see problems come up? >> the speed of the rise is the issue, not the magnitude. if you go back to 2000 and 1972, multiples were 6% and that's where they are currently. powell kept interest rates far too low for too long and then

raised it very abruptly. the speed of the rise destabilized the system. and he was telling the system the markets were overvalued. i'm highly critical of his performance. >>watching around the other issue we've talked about this morning, energy. energy prices are back up, oil prices are back up because of what the saudis are doing. is that why you've believed in energy? you think these prices are going to go up because of supply? >> we're not replaces reserves at the way they're reducing. we don't have intelligent energy policy. we are not encouraging companies to produce more. i'd say between china ultimately turning on travel coming back and a failure to produce reserves at the rate we're producing them, i also would

observe the point we have refill the strategic petroleum reserve, i think the prices will stay up. saturday is reducing production, which indicates there's plenty of supply around. i think the price of oil will stay in the 80 to 90 zone and not go much higher. keeps companies are making a lot of money. energy stocks, a $65 a barrel oil. paramount resources, they produce it $21 a barrel, they own shares in companies that add to their earnings, no debt and they're generating cash well in excess of their dividend and capex. and it's owned by his family. there's real incentive. there are plenty of things to do

in the market, i just have to be patient. >> what stocks are you low on? >> i own some microsoft, which is expensive. i own paolo, i own citigroup, i own gna, 9% yield is something i've seen management literally almost every day. >> you said microsoft you own but it's expensive. why do you own it? >> well, i pay taxes. i pay taxes. i'm not looking to make the government rich. i'm not smart enough to go in and out. it's a secular grower and i try

to minimize my tax liability. >> so that means you're not buying more at the moment? >> no, i'm not buying more at the moment. i'm buying very little. the only thing is through a stock repurchase program. my most recent purchase, i'm looking here is pt mitch dream, yields about 4 1/2%, a distribution business, an excellent, well-run company that i think is a potential takeover candidate. i've lived the american dream. i'm trying to convince people like elizabeth warren don't move away from capitalism. capitalism is the best system. i get choked up when i talk

about it because basically my father came to america at the age of 12 as a plumber's apr apprentice. i went to high school and college in the bronx and i started my career in wall street the day after i got my mba from columbia. i had no money. i couldn't afford a vacation. i made a lot of money. i'm giving it all back. >> your concern -- >> i'm concerned about the lefties. what made me write the book is i had three terrific grandchildren and i want them to understand the merits of capitalism and i want them to be capitalists with a heart. centrists. we have a very, very bad political system. i said this last time, program, the sense of humor is true. in 1776 the population was 2.5

people, women and slaves didn't have the right to vote. washington, jefferson, hamilton, madison, 300 million population, big percentage which can vote and we found trump and biden. you know, i have a minority view. i don't think trump or biden will be the candidates in 2024. i don't know if that's wishful thinking. i think both political parties are lacking. >> who do you think will be? >> somebody has to come out of the woodwork, clinton and obama came out of the woodwork. right now there's nobody. >> i'm a card carrying capitalist, i believe in it but i'm worried and i'm concerned when you look at polls in the united states and most adults i think it's 60 to 70% of adults with families and children think

that their children are not going to live a better life than they did. and i think that's very different than when you look at the polls probably in your generation at that time. i don't know. what do you think about that perception? >> well, the question really is is the alternative better? where is the tallest midget or the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king. show me a system that's superior to capitalism. the people -- i wrote the book, i never finished the point, 30 to 40% people think socialism deferred to capitalism. and i look at the people coming up from south america risking their lives to come to america. they get it. and i want their kids to get it. >> you think they do? >> yeah, my oldest granddaughter, she's a grenius.

she graduated phi beta kappa. they took the statue of christopher columbus down and put a statue of george floyd up and she said we're not celebrating george floyd for who he is but because he sparked the movement. if you're not conservative when you're 30, you don't have a brain. when you're 25, she has a big brain, we'll see what happens. i'm a capitalist with a heart. i wrote the book, all the proceeds go to charity, i'm not keeping a nick el for myself and i just want to keep the system straight. i said on this program before my hero is ken langone and he's one of the great human beings out there. i have a similar philosophy to

him. >> leon, we want to thank you for being here and sharing your thoughts on the market and on your capitalism on the market. >> thank you. sorry for the sentiment. i get a little choked up. if you buy it, all the proceeds go to charity. >> great to see you. >> keep doing the great job you're doing. >> another guest that doesn't pull any punches, former st. louis fed president jim bullard will join us in the 8:30 a.m. half hour. and our own jane wells is in the middle of the desert where a battle may be brewing over key material for evs. >> i'm jane wells. in this desolate landscape is a battle brewing betweenasa nand a mining company, which think it

has found the largest lithium deposit in north america. (sirens) [due at target in 5!] copy that. make a hard left down the alley.

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up next, we have a few data points to start the day, including the weekly jobless claim report. "squawk box" will be right back.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we're just about 30 seconds away from the jobless claims report, also data on productivity.

we're watching what's been happening with the markets this morning. we have seen weakening across the board. dow futures were higher when we started the show two and a half hours ago. now they're indicated off by about 34 point, s&p futures out by 21 points and nasdaq down for three sections in a row. rick santelli is standing by at the cme in chicago. rick, take it away. >> let's look at productivity. non-farm productivity moved up 0.1 to 3.5%. union unit labor costs moved up 0.3%. 3.5 follows a 3.7 with respect to productivity. that is 0.2 lower than what we were considering for our second quarterfinal and union the labor

costs are benchmarked against 1.6. so these definitely merit some looking into. now let's get into jobless claims. 216,000. this is really quite incredible. we continue to see downward pressure in claims, 216,000 happens to be the lightest level. that's going to the way back machine. but you have to go all the way back to the last week in january to find a lower number than 216,000. i can find an equal number 216,000 the second week in february. that's how far we need to go. on continuing claims, 1,679,000 we lost the 1.7 million handle and there are subtle revisions last month, downgraded a bit. when was the last time we were under 1.7? 1,679,000 exactly equals the second week in july. you have to go all the way back to january once again.

we're going back to january on continuing claims. we're all considering how much interest rates moved up. well, they're moving up even more. we're hovering just shy at 4.30 in a ten and we see a slight downgrade in productivity, a slight uptake in unit costs and just look at the dollar. dollar index is at a three-month high which means the euro's at a three-month low. the dollar is at the best levels since '07, 16 years. the pound is at a 15-month low. the dollar/yen is really near a ten-month low. this is a look into the psyche of global dynamics. andrew, it's all yours. >> rick, thank you for that,

helping us through all of this. we're going to talk about all of this in a moment because we have former st. louis president james bullard. he's going to join us. he has plenty to say. squawk returns after this. this is cynthia suarez, cfo of go-go foodco., an online food delivery service. business was steady, until... gogo-foodco. go check it out. whaatt?! overnight, users tripled. which meant hiring 20 new employees - and buying 20 new laptops.

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former st. louis fed president james bullard starting his next chapter but still has plenty to say about the fed inflation battle. steve liesman joins us with the man himself. steve, take it away. >> yeah, andrew. as you know, we used to call him president, now we call him dean. joining us is the former fed president now dean of the mitchell school of management. dean bullard. i don't know how many years i'm going to have to get used to it. i'm going to call you jim. it's a lot easier this way. tell me about the issue with the

federal reserve and the issue for september. growth has been running at potential or even above in the third quarter, but the fed has this 1% year end gdp rate built in. something's got to give, doesn't it? >> absolutely. the atlanta fed's gdp now the last time i checked was in the high 5% range at an annual rate for the third quarter. that sounds like reaction sell racial of the u.s. economy. the september sep is going to have to be adjusted upward on the gdp part because the committee was expecting -- some members were expecting either very slow growth and others were expecting an outright recession in the second half of 2023. that's not materializing. i think it's a good question whether you can maintain the previous rate path that you had in mind if you're going to have a reaction sell racial on the

gdp side of the economy. >> so, dean, i don't know if i get a passing mark on this but i built in a 3% number for the third quarter because i think the atlanta fed is way too high but that means they got to do minus three to hit that 1% number. i don't know that people care so much about the gdp number going up. does the inflation number have to go up and more importantly, does the outlook for the fed funds rate have to go up if they're going to have a lot more gdp or economic activity that be this they forecast? >> you have to hang your narrative together. if you said the reason inflation is going to come down, that looks like it's not materializing and you're definitely going to have to upgrade the growth forecast. are you going it say the same policy rate path is appropriate,

you know, given the faster growth or maybe you think growth isn't going it come in that but i think generally speaking the risks for the market are the numbers on the economy look like they're going to be stronger certainly than they were anticipated to be in the first half of this year and now you're going to probably get some inflation numbers that aren't going to be as soft as people were and tus patrioting. that's raising the risk that it had fallen through its fed risk rate and there's some risk if in a way that makes inflation stall out. core inflation still has a core

handle. those have got to come down into the 3% range and eventually into the 2% range and if that is not happening and they hang up too high, the fed may have to do more. >> so it doesn't sound like in the way you spin it there, jim, that a quarter would be enough. in that situation it sounds like the fed might have to do substantially more. and i'm reminded of the fan charts that you did when you were in office showing a 5 to 7% funds rate was not out of the question. >> and we are over 5 so we are in that range but the question now is since the big slowdown, the recession idea isn't really panning out. is that going to slow down the rate of disinflation or even, you know, cause it to hang up or even go a little bit higher?

if that's the case, you'd be looking at higher paths for the fund rate. i don't think the markets ready right that but if you're reaction sell racial, second half of 2023, which is where we are now, you have to put a little bit more probability on that scenario and on the idea that the fed will have to make sure inflation comes down to 2% on a core pe basis. >> is there a risk of waiting and seeing? i guess my question is if the fed decides to just wait and see what's happening, does that mean they would necessarily have to do even more later to make up for not doing it now? >> that's a little bit of a risk. i think that the chair said correctly at jackson hole and

others, let's wait for that. it certainly not the that has turned out to be quite successful but we're not in that swaugs today. if it continues to come in soft inflation reports and inflation continues to come down, then maybe they don't have to do anything but there's a rising risk they may have to do more because the economy is not headed toward recession any time soon. >> can i just add into this, and i know it not part of the core measurement but how you think about the price of energy and how it tuns to shot up. about 25% high are since june. >> i've been saying and one way to talk about that is to say

that headline cpi was at 1.9% and today it's a little over 3% so 6 percentage point and almost no change in the unemployment rate. if there was ever a lot of landing story that you could tell, you would use that. 6 percentage point decline in inflation, no increase in unemployment essentially. but a lot of that is commodity prices. so if you live in that -- energy prices have gone up. if china turns up to not be and you could have a lot of demand and commodity prices could go higher. some does leak through to the core measures but that's why the

court likes to strip out some of the price effects. >> reporter: isn't it worth considering the opposite of what you're suggesting here , in the sense that we had have above growth for several quarters and inflation has come in quite a bit. it's said we need a period of potential growth to bring down that inflation. what if that is just plain wrong? because the fiscal policy stalled out here because of big government, woo don't have the so to the extent it continues, the fed can just sit and watch

the data many could in and take credit for the success. and that probably is the baseline right now and that probably, you know, that's a good thing to be betting on. i'm just saying tra the probability and other side that disinplace stalls out or inflation hid heads a little bit and other yields partly because of this. >> just very quickly, is your best guess here for a soft landing? is that your bet? ia, i think the soft landing scenario is looking very, very good right now, but, you know, you never know in this business. you might wake up two weeks from now and there's some big shock that has occurred or something. but for now, you're a good year into the really big rate headaches that were a time and

so far o we can grow even at higher interest rates, more appropriate interest rates, i think, for the u.s. economy. . >> we're grateful to have you back at bean p dean. all the best. when we come back, we have some of today's top movers. odt lithium is a necessary prucfor the u.s. congress is getting involved. we'll bring you that story next. . is it possible tpredictiveg to address operations issues? we can help with that. can we provide health care virtually anywhere? we can help with that, too.

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welcome back to "squawk box." i'm dominic chu. we'll start with apple, just around 2.5 million shares of volume. the iphone maker on pace to extend yesterday's 3.5% decline. now yesterday of the journal saying that china was moving to limit iphone use and other tech devices in government. today bloomberg is reporting those restrictions could extend to government-owned companies as well so apples shares taking a hit. and dave and busters reporting

prove revenues shy of analyst estimates. comparable shares fell and they did increase the existing sitting on one of the largest lithium reserves in the world, but nasa doesn't want much of it touched at all, which could be an issue for ev makers. >> potentially the largest. you got nasa on one side, lithium miners on the other, clashing in this desolate place. this is railroad valley, nevada, and as you said, it could contain the largest lithium deposit in north america, potentially 20 to 25 million recoverable tons. that would be a huge domestic source for evs. a company called 3 pl operating run by geologists who worked in oil and gas say testing shows

the lithium is here under ground. they pulled some of it out in the salt deposits. is it all right to lick it? >> yeah, yeah. >> oh, yeah, that's salty. the company has spent over 20 million of $30 million it's raised from investors to buy claims, dig wells, but here's the problem. nasa uses this same valley to calibrate its optical satellites. it's perfect. it's huge. it's flat. it's stable, and while there are other places like in libya and china for calibration, they are not safe for nasa personnel on the ground, necessarily. project scientist hal marring told me "railroad valley is unique in the united states. there is no other place like it." nasa is afraid it will disrupt the surface. it convinced the blm to take away about a third of the claim, but how much lithium are we talking about? >> 50% of that, about 12 million

tons, sits under the nasa-segregated area that we can't access. >> reporter: now, 3 pl chairman kevin moore testified before congress. there is a bill in committee to give the land back to 3 pl. meantime, the company can continue testing and digging wells outside the nasa zone, though the motherlode may be inside it. stay tuned. >> that's a fascinating story. >> jane, it kind of plays into what we just heard from lee cooperman. he was talking about a company where spectrum has been a big issue because there's questions about whether it will screw up some of the jets and aviation stuff with it. this is an interesting case where stuff that's been given away gets taken back. i don't know constitutionally law what's there, but i would guess that this is a situation where nasa can claim, hey, this is a matter of national

importance, and this should take precedence. interesting to hear the congressional aspect of it. >> well, we'll see. there is a line in the funding for the interior department to give it back to 3 pl. we'll have to see how it plays out. 3 pl operating believes it has a legal right to the claims. they bought the claims. nasa, as you say, is saying, hold on a minute. they are not the only ones using this for calibration. noaa does as well. i called the defense department to see if they're using it too. shockingly, i haven't heard back. >> jane wells in the desert this morning. thank you. appreciate it. meantime, we should mention the lithium prices have been slumping over the last year, down roughly 60%. meantime, take a look at a few players in the lithium sector and their performance over the last year. we got a couple of them on the screen for you. next, a final check on the markets as we count down to the opening bell.

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welcome back to "squawk box." we are just a little under the

opening bell from wall street at this point. dow off close to a hundred points. nasdaq down about 190 points. the s&p off about 33 points. i want to bring in the head of analysis from bny mellon analysis. lee cooper has a down beat approach or attitude in terms of feeling overvalued. are you in the same place? >> yes and no, which ithe economist answer in me. i think tactically, it's still a very challenging market. we are a little bit higher in terms of our recession probability. it feels like over the summer, a lot of people kind of came to a soft landing as a baseline. we don't think it's quite that optimistic. >> goldman-sachs went from 20% down to 15%. >> yeah. >> i don't know how meaningful you think that actually is, but where would you put it? >> we put it more at about 50/50 over the next year, which is quite a bit more elevated, sort of in an unconditional year.

15% to me sounds like an unconditional year. >> that's even more negative than i would say jim bullard is, who's in a potential soft landing scenario. >> it comes down to this debate about how the economy disinflates. is it going to disinflate the way we've seen historically? or are we going to get this immaculate disinflation that we all hope for but in our view is still a lower probability? >> you don't sound like a believer if you're calling it immaculate. >> we're more believers than we were a few months ago when we were in the regional banking crisis, looking at how credit conditions were evolving. we were more pessimistic. now looking at the data, we are, i wouldn't say believers, but we acknowledge there's a lot of uncertainty there, and it's something we're watching closely. >> how do you think about the employment picture? just by the numbers, you would think it's super strong, but when you talk to small businesses and others, and frankly big businesses, especially in tech and other spaces, it does not feel like a thriving situation. >> yeah, i mean, the dynamics in the labor market are very

difficult to read right now. on the face of it, yes, very tight labor market. obviously, last week, we had participation rate going up, so moving the unemployment rate, but i think we're getting still a lot of cross winds from coming out of the covid pandemic. i think that sort of the way the companies are reacting, the way they're treating their labor, there might be labor hoarding i monetary policy longer. >> we used to talk about labor hoarding. i haven't heard anyone talk about it for quite a while. >> i'll bring it back. >> jake, we appreciate you being here. you got to come on back. all right, folks, that is wrapping things up for today. before we go, we want to let you know how futures are faring this morning. they've continued to take on a little more water. things are a little deeper than they had been earlier. you're talking about the dow futures down by about 90 points. s&p futures are down by 32, and then if nasdaq is now indicated off by about 187.

like to take a look at a few individual stocks if you can. maybe check out shares of apple, which were under pressure earlier today. that would be impacting the nasdaq and the dow, so if you can take a look at that very quickly, looks like right now -- never mind. not coming. let me see if i can see apple shares here. they were under pressure. now down by about 3.6%. so that explains some of the weakness we've seen. now it's time for "squawk on the street." ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer at post nine of the new york stock exchange. david faber is at goldman's communicopia conference in san francisco, where later today he'll have an exclusive with goldman's david solomon, 4:15 p.m. eastern time. in the meantime, futures red as some of the labor data today runs warm. jobless claims lightest since february. our road map begins with apple's china challenge, shares moving lower on news of a broader iphone cra