>> i like hes, as oil is moving higher. >> don't sleep on electrification and clean energy growth in this sector. >> utilities, interesting. thank you very much. i hope everybody has a nice weekend, including you viewers and listeners. that does it for us. "the exchange" with kelly evans starts right now. ♪ ♪ thank you very much, dom. hi, everybody. i'm kelly evans. here's what is ahead on "the exchange" this hour. fresh comments from the fed and fresh concerns out of china. investors trying to make sense of it, and stocks are trying to end on a positive note. apple, up about 1% today but still shedding 5% this week. and about $200 billion in market cap just the last couple of days on those reported iphone curbs in china, which could be getting broader.

that is where we start today. we have team coverage. eunice yoon is live in beijing with the latest. steve is looking at how india is trying to capitalize on china's slowdown. and robert frank has the luxury consumer trade. and the companies most impacted by china's weakening economy. morgan stanley's portfolio manager andrew is hanging with me today to talk about where your money is best deployed here, abroad, tactical, specific. let's start with eunice. what is the latest in beijing tonight? >> reporter: well, kelly, the restrictions not only apply to certain state agencies on a national level, but also at local governments, as well. they are reporting that apple watches, as well as air pods are on restricted lists at state firms, as well. and this all comes as apple rival here, huawei, had said that it's now taking preorders

for another new, what it calls most powerful model of their phones. the company says that the new pro plus is -- has a lot of different features, greater storage and memory than the mate 60 pro, launched last week, when the u.s. commerce secretary had come to china. that phone has been operating at speeds close to 5g. this one, the company says has another homegrown highlight -- satellite messages via china's own satellite system. now, shares of huawei suppliers rallied on the news. apple suppliers, though, fell. the company, as well as the government here, hasn't really been commenting. although the foreign ministry did have something to say about the u.s. investigation into whether or not huawei or its suppliers had violated u.s. export controls with this new phone.

the foreign ministry said that this probe is an unreasonable suppression of chinese companies, and that it only strengthens, they say chinese determination for i.t. breakthroughs. kelly? >> eunice, the question now is, there have been some reacting saying it's more bark than bite. what was your sense from, you know, being there? is this a lot of theater, or is there going to be, you know, some more muscle behind china looking to maybe elbow the iphone out of its market? >> reporter: well, we spoke about this yesterday. because of the economic incentives as the potential job losses that you could see here, there are reasons why you could believe there are breaks on what the chinese government might want to do. at the same time, the leadership here, president xi jinping especially, has shown that national security is really primary to the way that they are running this country.

and so that potentially could take precedent over the economic incentives in this case, as well. >> eunice, thank you very much. eunice yoon following the story. andrew, not a china bear. so even with everything that's happening now, you don't get the sense a little discomfort in the stomach? >> well, there is a little discomfort. but i do think it's maybe what you said before, a little more theater than anything. they have lose sight of the fact that the chinese government needs the economy to recover, and it's taking longer than our post covid recovery. but they need to keep the economy moving and people moving upward and to the right. >> i'm going to say something controversial -- what if they can't? we know they need to, but part of it is a choice. they're not doing the knee jerk, throwing money at the problem to make it go away. but these problems are 15 years in the making.

maybe there's not much they can do. >> but what you asked me, are they going to do things that would shoot themselves in the foot? and i'm not sure that's happening. so this reminds me a little earlier in the trump presidency when there were these same issues, and then they dissipated as we moved on to other issues. my sense. which is not to say, i think that's a real concern. demographics is an issue. but never underestimate the consumption desire as you move into the middle class. i think that's a huge demographic commentary that you have to keep in mind. >> would you kind of the investment angle, you could do something broad with chinese stocks, which seems the most risky, you could doing something tactical, like play the chinese middle class. what is the right tactical move right here? >> it's to play the consuhinese

consumer. i'm still willing to bet on that over time, and i like what jim cramer said last night, let's wait for the data and see the facts before we overreact. >> do you give names or -- >> i think we'll get into it, but i think these luxury names in europe, which have sold off recently, are very intriguing. i do believe there is a desire to walk around, i've arrived. >> we'll circle back to that. stand by, because one other trade gaining momentum is india, which is outperforming china handily. president xi is skipping the g20 this weekend in india. >> the indian prime minister is trying to capitalize on china's slowdown, meeting with leaders

f from silicone valley and wall street. it comes on the heels of a meeting with the ceo of nvidia. this morning, the chipmaker announcing two new artificial intelligence deals with india's biggest companies. now, in june, micron and applied materials unveiling plans to expand production in the country. the goal is to produce an indian made chip. and that's one of the reasons their team has become even more bullish on india. just a tech opportunity with $2 billion allocated into india etfs. nearly double the amount put into chinese equities this year. just now, joe biden met modi in new delhi for the g20 summit with chinese president xi skipping the event. on the agenda, from what we are hearing, debt forgiveness for smaller emerging markets. congressional approval of

general lek electric's jet engi. >> those who say generationally india has not been as productive as china, is this time different? >> it's different, because you are seeing more of these partnerships come together that will help elevate india's infrastructure and, you know, create more of those opportunities. so when ge announced the deal, when nvidia does something similar, that certainly gets the attention of investors. it shows them that india is now being receptive to the opportunity. >> seema, thank you very much. so many things, andrew, you want to think abwith the s&p 500 broadly. you say 7.5% of sales to china. what are we supposed to do with that exposure? maybe you get double the growth you would get elsewhere, but i don't know what to pencil in for that now. and i don't know whether an economy as small as india, or even japan, third biggest

economy, whether even that's enough to move the needle for some of these multinationals. >> yeah. you said it right. it's a productivity issue. be careful, is that going to improve in the time frame of which investors, who have now moved a lot of money, is really going to have. >> which is about seven months. >> that might be too long. i mean, be careful with that, which is not a bad commentary on india, it's just an issue. i'm a little less pessimistic with china, which has been very successful until recently. i still think that this concept of, they've got to have their economy recover will ultimately play out. >> ultimately reign supreme. what about the u.s. dollar, which has surprised many people with their strength. with a market like japan, it's

just the flip side of a weak currency. >> i think it creates an opportunity, which is the dollar went straight up for a decade, right? and non-u.s. investments were bad versus the u.s. and then really starting in the summer of 2022, the dollar started to climb until, you know, a month ago. and then we have had this big rally. so is it a beginning of a secular bull market for the dollar, which is give up on everything else and stick to the s&p, or is it just a count turn rally? i would argue this creates an opportunity for some of these global stocks that are outside the u.s. >> the irony is you think it could weaken because of the fiscal situation. so the dollar weakens for bad reasons but it is good for corporate america. >> we have approved the infrastructure act, we have accrued the chips act, and we have improved the "inflation

reduction act". how much of that money has been spent? it's all coming. it's all coming. >> and it's very supportive right now. that's one of the main reasons for the economy's strength. so some of the world's biggest huxry stocks have been taking a beating over the last couple of months on these fears of what is going on in china. let's get some details from robert frank. robert, where do we stand? >> you were just talking about the key point, where is the chinese consumer in all this? luxury stocks saying not in a very good place. $150 billion in market cap just over the past six months, dragging down a lot of those european stock indexes. they have lost over $100 billion since the peak last year. that is no longer europe's valuable country. the company that owns gucci, down over 20%. the main reason is china. they account for about 20% of

global luxury sales. china's slowing economy, the property crisis, youth unemployment, falling consumer demand, all of that expected to hit the affluent and aspirational consumers. sales in mainland china are bound to decelerate quite visibly. luxury companies had hoped the wealthy chinese would be immune to all of this, but many are leaving the country. over 13,500 millionaires will emigrate from china just this year, up over 25% from last year. where are they all going? most going to singapore, canada, and the u.s. ke kelly, we should be clear we haven't heard from the companies them selves over the past month about china. in the second quarter, they all had strong china results. this is just investors projecting on the economic data that luxury sales will also be hurt. but we haven't heard that from the companying yet.

>> andrew, i turn to you for the yeah, but in the face of all this doom and gloom of this sector. >> there was a piece you ran earlier today saying that the average membership of a singapore golf shot, or the dues has gone from $200,000 to $600,000, because of the chinese moved to singapore. maybe they don't buy their bags in china, but they are guys them in singapore. what robert frank said, the companies have actually not said business is weak in china. what they did say is they see a slowing in the u.s. so that's where the weakness is. a lot has to do with the fact that the dollar has appreciated recently. so these investments in dollars have really been -- >> you're still bullish on a couple of luxury names. which ones in particular? >> louis viton. the death of the luxury consumer

is greatly exaggerated. and i thinker ferrari is very intriguing. >> that's one of the great performers. >> if i said it doesn't matter what you charge clients, they'll buy. the price and elasticity, i've never seen it in a company like this. >> are you bullish on these names, even if they're a core u.s. market? >> i think that's a bigger concern than china, but i don't think that is a reason to, you know, i turn more bullish on these stocks because they're down. louis viton is down 25%. >> a few months ago, we were writing celebratory stories how it was the greatest company ever, and the greatest executive in the world. >> way you make money is to buy good companies when they're

down. >> what would you add to that, robert, especially what is happening in the luxury space in the u.s. in >> andrew is right. the big concern in the second quarter was the slowdown in the u.s. at least asia had made up for that deficit. the question is, does that last leg of the stool, europe is weak, america is now weak. does the last leg, which was asia, start to fall apart? i would echo his part about ferrari. i interviewed the ceo three weeks ago. he said that demand in china has never been stronger. they have a new suv they're laun launching. ferrari is doing well in china, but we don't know what is happening with the chinese consumer until we get the third quarter results. >> thank you, both. robert, andrew, thank you all your time. coming up, could inflation be coming down faster than expected? walmart's latest move says the answer could be yes, but does the fed agree? and what does the market expect for rate hikes from here?

we'll break that down. and morgan stanley calling china's apple concerns overdone. jpmorgan trimming their price target. we'll have a very special three buys and a bail apple edition, as we get ready for their big debut of the new iphones next week. and here's a look at the markets, which are in the green except for the russell which is down slightly as the regional banks struggle. about a quarterer percent gain across the board. back after this.

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welcome back to "the exchange." is inflation subsiding more quickly than expected? investors are taking note, as just this week walmart wages have dropped kroger says disinflation is occurring at a greater rate than anticipated. and recent fed research finds that the frequency of price hikes in recent months has slowed sharply and the beige book report sounded more cautious on regional economies how does this square with what we are hearing from officials? joining me now, my guests. welcome to you both.

steve, let me start with you the fed officials we're hearing, if anything, are hinting at maybe another hike in november >> yeah. i mean, i'm not quite reading it that way, kelly. i'm interested in your take on it i have found fed officials to be very much in the middle. when john williams says, policy is in a good place, you've got to take note of that that's a phrase that powell has used in the past to sort of say, hey, we're okay where we are a good place could mean we have to hike a little bit more. and then you have susan collins saying that we're at or near the peak rate. so i find that the market has been struggling, but i feel like it's not struggling because of what the fed's been saying i feel like it's struggling because of a whole bunch of other reasons. the fed i don't think has been really hawkish in that sense yes, they're watching it, they are concerned. it's important to note, some of this data that we have all been very excited about, could be

revised. we had waller on he said, we've been burned before that's why they are more circumspect about the progress >> greg, either they are or should be. it was in response to the services report. the november rate jumped to above 50%. but steve's right, greg. we haven't heard officials being too, you know, hawkish or kind of running this policy of we better err on the side of one more or else >> policymakers are being very careful what they're saying. they want to essentially highlight the possibility that there will be a pause, and we think that's going to be the baseline forecast. we think the fed is done with its tightening cycle but they don't want to exclude the possibility of future rate hikes should domestic demand prove stronger than expected or the labor market show less easing those are the two conditions powell highlighted in his

speech so it will be a nuanced message, but given what the data is showing and how inflation is evolving and the labor market, i think the fed is done with the rate hike cycle. >> greg, i mentioned anecdotal data points, but what do you think is going on here >> it's very interesting there's the debate about getting inflation from 3% to 2% being the most difficult i'm not sure that's the case we are seeing evidence that a number of inflationary measures and gauges are pointing towards faster disinflation than initially expected you are seeing that the housing disinflationary is accelerate. you're seeing import price inflation on the downside. you're seeing wage growth evidence also showing more signs to the downside. so i think inflation will continue to slow in the coming months. it will be abumpy process. we know higher energy prices are going to disrupt the momentum

over the next couple of months. but as we move into 2024, we see stronger supply, and i think that will continue to put downward pressure on prices and businesses will be looking at inflation no longer as a one-way bet but thinking hard about their pricing strategy in this environment. >> absolutely. steve, what would you add? >> i would add that, look, the market has this binary idea about the fed. they're either on or they're off. in other words, they're hiking or cutting. the fed does not want that to be the set of choices that the market is embracing. and one of the reasons why they keep hope alive that there could be another rate hike is because they don't want the market to start pricing in cuts right away. they do not want to have the added stimulus of rates coming down. now i think it would be a wonderful thing to happen in the sense that you might get a positive slope to the curve, which would help the economy in

all sorts of ways. but that's one of the reasons they keep that idea alive, because they don't want you to think about cuts. if the fed could get the market to trade with knuance, it would welcome it, but it can't. >> we are in an environment where the fed does not want to show its cards and have investors price in rate cuts next year. what steve high lighted is very important. the fed will be focused on real rates. how restrictive is the policy given nominal rates and inflation. as we move into the winter, there will be a greater discussion focused on the real rates. i don't think rate cuts are coming before the end of the first quarter of next year, but that will be an increasing topic of discussion as we move into the end of the year. >> all right. gentlemen, thanks. speaking of disinflation, rent growth is on the verge of going negative for the first time in decades.

diana olig brings us that story. diana? >> yeah, apartment represents have been cooling off for several months. they were still slightly higher year of year in august. but rent is up just 0.28%, compare that to a year ago when rents were posting 11% annual growth, with the exception of a very brief drop during the covid lockdowns, rents have not gone negative in well over a decade. when they did, it was due to recession hitting demand. that is not the case now. apartment occupancies are at a healthy 94%, which is right along historical norms. that's thanks to high mortgage rates with high home prices. this is just a massive amount of supply. new units this year, at a 50-year high with over 460,000 y units alone. we talked about this a lot. over a million units in the last three years, a record, and much of that supply is on the higher

end. so land lords have less pricing power and turnover is increasing. so while rents haven't gone negative nationally, they have in several marks, including austin, phoenix, jacksonville. supply should remain high, but new construction has dropped a lot this year due to financing and other challenges. so that may help put a floor on the rents. kelly? >> good news for consumers, may be bad news for those exposed to apartment rates. diana, thank you very much. coming up, 19-year-old cocoa goff clinching a spot in her first u.s. open final. but did ai see it coming? the key role artificial intelligence is playing this year in the u.s. open. and if you are a charter cable customer, you'll have to watch that u.s. open final somewhere else, as the dispute between charter and disney pass the one week down.

shares are down 4% since the blackout began. back after this.

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president donald trump is asking to move a colorado state lawsuit to federal court. a group of six voters filed a lawsuit to remove trump from the 2024 ballot because of his actions in the 2020 election. trump's team belongs it blelong in the federal court. other states preparing similar challenges to trump's eligibility to be on the presidential ballot. the united nations released a report saying its goal of

achieving gender equality by 2030 is impossible because of bias against women. it referenced inequality between men and women around the world in health, education, employment and positions of power. the report conclude there is is active resistance to equality efforts under investment -- and under investment, which slows progress or even reverses gains already made. and the white house announced $26 million in new funding to improve aviation safety after a series of near-miss incidents. according the the white house, it will be used to improve situational awareness on runways, and to increase runway alerts before approving clearances. kelly, back to you. >> tyler, thank you very much. coming up, the xle is on pace for its ninth daily gain in ten and hitting the highest level since january. the higher prices could inflict pain on the restaurant industry.

one -- that's next on "the exchange." stay with us. and now cnbc trend tracker.

welcome back. it's been a decent year for restaurant stocks, especially those catering to the higher end consumer. but can it last? raymond james downgrading dave and busters to outperform to strong buy and lowering the pr price, warning the second half could see more of the same, as shares are down 12% this week.

kate rogers joins me now with some other names that could be at risk. >> yeah. two notes over the last week, blaming on vulnerabilities. the first is key names to watch as student loan payments resume in october. that will have an adverse impact on spending but will remain a modest issue. 63% of respondents said they will dine out or spend less once the loan repayments resume. a couple of names that will be impacted, starbucks, shake shack and chipotle. the consumer is looking stretched, pointing to some vulnerable charts in casual names. but wells fargo had some bets in the fast food space, naming s of a forecast in slowdown on the street, and it's positive on

those two names, despite recent share pullback and softness in the month of august. now, year-to-date, mcdonald's up 5%, young is lagging down 1%. the names that are best performing the year so far are those stocks that are correlated with higher price points for consumers when it comes to meals. shake shack, those are some of the other names that are vulnerable. but the best stock performers of the year. >> kate, thank you very much. let's talk more about not just the student loan payments posing a potential risk to spending. gasoline prices are also sitting at levels not seen this time of year in more than a decade. the national average now more than $3.80 a gallon according to aaa. my next guest is bullish on the full-service restaurants like cheesecake factory. andy, welcome. >> hi, kelly. good afternoon. >> i don't often see people excited about full-service

casual dining. that was supposed to be a dinosaur, a relic of the past. why is this a moment of opportunity for them, do you think? >> a couple of things. the sales environment is normalizing, that's for sure. it's always hard to tell what the causes are. but, you know, the middle to upper middle income consumer i think is, you know, in a good position and will continue to be. that kind of matches up with the demographic of the typical casual dining customer. that category also saw the most i would say structural improvement over the past, you know, three years, and then coming out of the pandemic in terms of an inkremental layer, in terms of amounts of capacity in the category, via closures, as well as some margin improvements that were found, just given the challenges of the early days of the pandemic. >> interesting. so it's kind of like as long as that consumer hangs in there,

then this space should be fine. and valuation also argues this their favor? >> yeah, kelly. i think these stocks have been battered around by the recession that supposedly has been happening the last 18 months or so. and it's clearly not happened. there are some other recent traffic as sales have normalized following a big period of revenge spending and socialization and getting out. traffic has gone negative, which is a head wind for the stocks. we also heard on the weight loss drugs recently in the last month or so what that may or may not do for demand over the medium to longer term. but needless to say, the valuations at the low end of historical ranges, as most of these stocks are trading at five to seven times forward, are already reflecting kind of pretty significant slowdowns, whether or not that comes from the economy or some other factors. >> interesting. you know, i was struck thateitae

doing well right now. what is it about this theme right now? >> well, i think olive garden has always done well through the variety of ups and downs in the economy. it just has such great value scores given the abundance of the food, and of course, all you can eat salad and praedbread st. but the italian category over the pandemic, consumers really realized how easy it is for that food to go, and how it travels so well. so a lot of the secondary ones, with olive garden being the largest, have seen some benefits and havesustained some of that momentum, including bloomen brands, which is one of our favorite names. >> so it travels for takeout a little better than maybe tacos

or fried chicken. what part of the restaurant industry -- there's plenty of head wind. what are the areas -- we haven't really talked about some of the plays kate highlighted that are aimed at the high-end consumer. why are you a little more cautious on some of those segments? >> umm, i think part of it is those stocks have had big runs. sometimes, you know, for a variety of different reasons. overall, i think what those companies are showing is unit growth also. and i think that is an area where we actually are positive. i think the market, you know, is hooking for growth still in areas outside of technology and ai, and obviously all the things that have been really hot until recently this year. so some of the growth names have performed well, like the shake shacks of the world.

we happen to, you know, like some others in the category. cava was a recent ipo we were part of. we just did a follow to help clean up the balance sheet, and first watch in the breakfast brunch category. it was a good growth story in small caps. so we do continue to like some of those small-cap growth names. just have been neutral on the ones that you put up earlier. >> all right. their run-up in particular. andy, thanks for joining us today. up next, move over, mcenroe. ai is playing a rohuge role in this year's u.s. open, from predicting winners to calling shots and providing commentary, next. and square announcing on x that its payment processing services have been restored after an outage that started around 3:00

p.m. eastern time yesterday. shares are still down 5% today and more than 8% this week. back after this. my wife's name. we've been married 45 years. i'm taking a two-year business course. i've been studying a lot. i've been producing and directing for over 50 years. it's a very detailed thing and the pressure's all on me. i noticed i really wasn't quite as sharp as i was. my boss told me about prevagen and i started taking it. i feel sharper. my memory's a lot better. it just works. prevagen. at stores everywhere without a prescription. ai has the power to generate solutions. but if it's using unverified data, it could generate problems. your business doesn't just need ai, it needs the right ai for your business. introducing watsonx: a platform designed to multiply output by tailoring ai to your needs. when you watsonx your business, you can train, tune and deploy ai, all with your trusted data. let's create the right ai for your business

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ai might not be able to understand love, except when it comes to tennis scores. the new technology has been a big part of this year's u.s. open, providing commentary, insight, and even protecting winners. julia is here with the details. i tip my hat. that was a good play on words, julia. >> well, kelly, if you've been watching the u.s. open this week, you have been benefiting from artificial intelligence. the usta has been using ibm's ai to provide commentary in what's happening in every single match. >> wins the point with the winner. it is now even in this game. deuce. >> we're able to create a

highlight for every match and have that voice added in a matter of minutes. that was hours in past years. so we have gone from automated clipping to now adding commentary to it. the goal and the northstar is really to even enrich that commentary with more color commentary. >> as the usta works to launch generative ai, commentary is also working with ai general ra -- generated translation. they even forecast who is most likely to win a match and predicted the upset in woimbledn wimbledon. this is part of a broader trend of d.c. funding pouring into sports tech, with 53 deals in the ai sports related companies alone last year, an all-time high in terms of the number of deals. one startup in this space is

called ai scout, partnering with major league soccer to enable anyone to try out and be evaluated by the league. another uses ai to improve the realism of its virtual reality training tools for nfl players. anyone can see how the nfl trains. we'll see more how coaches are using ai to customize training programs or to isolate which teams need to be reviewed in an effort for efficiency. at the end of the day, all of this data is still coaching and humans who are still occasionally unpredictable. >> where do you think investor -- is this really something that goes back to an investful angle, there's one company doing cool things here or there's a million different people doing a million different things that are almost undiscernible at this point? >> to see a company like ibm have its generative ai tools be applicable in the world of

sports. the idea that you may be watching a match and not realize that it's an ai generated comment doing the voiceover. so we are seeing some of these big companies, and we'll see more of it. whether it's the ibm watson or microsoft and their big investment, we'll see these tools being leveraged broadly. and we'll see some of the startups, which with more niche and more focused being deployed in more specific use cases, such as training of athletes or giving coaches different tools. everything is being leveraged now. ai making you more efficient. >> julia, thank you very much. still ahead, apple shares having their second worst week this year. it's been even worse for some of their suppliers. bro broadcom, qualcomm, down 1.5% to 8%. but our trader sees a strong buy setup in one of these names, and another looks like it could be on the brink of a breakdown. we'll get her three guys, and a

bail, next. and whecheck out shares of intel. it had been a nine-day winning streak. shares are up 16% e thlast two weeks. "the exchange" is back after this. coach saban, this goat done took over our office. and he's using it to send out medical bills. good hands! hospital bill for prime?! gaaaaap! did you just say gap?! he's talking about expenses health insurance doesn't cover. good thing coach prime knows about...say it one time! aflac! because aflac gets you money to help close that gap! now how do we get this goat outta here? (whistles) aflac! meet one of my new homies! gaaaaap! get help with expenses health insurance doesn't cover at aflac.com. elephant would've been scarier.

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welcome back. apple getting hit on all sides this week between the eu gatekeepers list, china's iphone ban for government officials, and growing competition from huawei. and the company's suppliers are under pressure as well, all right before its big iphone launch event next week, which is also typically a bearish time for apple shares. hot should you do with all of these stocks here? it's time for three buys and a bail. apple edition. joining me is danielle shea, vp of options. great to have you here. welcome. >> thank you. >> let's start with apple itself, which you say, drum roll, please, i'm kind of shocked to hear this, is a buy. it's lost $200 billion in market cap. we have been talking it's near the 100-day, what makes you look at this and think maybe

a la morgan stanley, more bark than bite and you would be a buyer? >> when you look at apple, i pulled back after earnings. this is a typical move for a stock like this post earnings. it hasn't looked great and the china news wasn't amazing at all, but when you look at the reaction, i think it's overblown,specifically if you look at the way it's trading today. we have a break above yesterday's high. we also have a lot of high open interest in the options market up at 185. i'm targeting 185 going into next week in the options market and i'm going to hold on to my long term apple shares. >> there you have it. that gives us the broader backdrop against which we'll talk about some of the other names. let's dig into the ply suppliers like broadcom. a miss on cash flow and guidance. this is a buy for you, though. >> so kelly, when you look at broadcom, i'll say i own the

shares here. i'm not going to be buying more after the huge move it had this year, but it's an amazing trading vehicle. it's, again, normal for a stock like this to pull back post earnings and what i'm seeing is it's in consolidation mode. i love identifying strong strengths that have relative strength in consolidation mode because i like to trade them up to the next level. i'm targeting $900 a share on broadcom, and i'm holding my long term shares. >> up 53% so far this year. what about taiwan semi? a bit of a tougher name. they have been on a steady downtrend the last three months. they release monthly sales figures for august today, showing a 13% drop year over year, but you would stick with the stock here. a buy for you. >> so i am holding taiwan semi-conductor, yes, it's had a lot of issues with the strife between the u.s. and china, but if you look past the short term timeframe and you look at the longer term charts, specifically look at the monthly chart, you can see that it has a strong

trend. it has a cup and handle pattern. it's pulled back, holding on to support. as long as it's up above $75, about $80 a share, i'm going to continue to hold and buy this one. i'm looking apupside targets into resistance between 120 and 140. admittedly, those are going to be critical resistance zones that it may have trouble getting through, but ultimately, i would like to see the monthly chart pattern play out and trade up to new all-time highs. >> so let's hit your bail. it's qualcomm. one of apple's biggest vendors responsible for the modem chip. shares down 8% this week, 10% this month. you're warning people to watch the downtrend, right? >> yes, kelly. so you know, it's hard for me because i do like qualcomm and i own qualcomm as well, but the problem is if you look at the longer term chart patterns, these are breaking down. it's one thing when you have a short term pattern that's breaking down and intermediate

strife, but the long term patterns on qualcomm on the monthly and weekly charts you can see you have broken your upside trend. specifically on this stock, if it breaks through about $100 a share, i think it will flush pretty quickly down into $85 to $90. i'm eyeing this one very carefully and if it breaks through $100, that is my bail point. >> i'm going to ask you about another bail. it kind of has something to do with what we have been talking about. starbucks is another name that has china exposure. i wanted to throw out, it's one you're watching also to the downside, isn't it? >> yes, that's correct. so when it comes to starbucks, you know, it has seen companies in this space that have started to roll over. and you know, some of them are very strong companies, like hershey's frahm is rolling and mcdonald's is rolling. starbucks in particular has had a variety of political issues for the past several years and this has impacted it on a longer term basis.

you can see the long term chart patterns are breaking down on the stock and it's hanging on a ledge. i like this one to buy some in the money puts for the next couple months because i think this one is going to fall off the ledge and break down. >> wow, pumpkin spice fans, that influx is not the story here. the stock was i think $125 a couple years ago. before we go, we got some news on the arm ipo, that it's five times oversubscribed do you need to see the pricing before you take a view one way or the other. they're also part of the apple ecosystem and apple is an investor in the ipo. >> certainly, i would need to see the pricing on this, but also, i would caution investors that ipos in this market condition in particular are going to be very risky bets because for a timeframe, you know, throughout 2019, 2020, 2021, ipos were amazing trading vehicles. but what we have seen since then is, well, a lot of these ipos have imploded. i would caution investors

towards buying any ipo in this market environment. >> wow, that is our headline for the day. danielle, thank you so much for joining us. we really appreciate it. >> thank you. she does it all, and that does it for the exchange. for more analysis on markets and the economy, you can get my newsletter at cnbc.com/newsletter. or scan the qr code. tyler is getting ready for a busy "power lunch" and il in'ljo him on the other side of the break. (fisher investments) it's easy to think that all money managers are pretty much the same, but at fisher investments we're clearly different.

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welcome to "power lunch," alongside kelly evans i'm tyler mathisen. coming up, all across the country, downtowns, office spaces, shopping centers at risk of becoming ground zero for a new economic hazard, the urban doom loop. that is the growing likelihood that a commercial real estate apocalypse could spiral out across the e